地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 30 日 热点品种 碳酸锂： 今日碳酸锂开盘后高位震荡，收盘价 59883.02 元/吨，涨幅 1.35%。SMM 电池级 碳酸锂指数价格 60901 元/吨，环比上一工作日下跌 332 元/吨；电池级碳酸锂 5.94-6.2 万元/吨，均价 6.07 万元/吨，环比上一工作日下跌 200 元/吨；工业 级碳酸锂 5.86-5.96 万元/吨，均价 5.91 万元/吨，环比上一工作日下跌 200 元 /吨，碳酸锂现货成交价格重心持续下移。供给端短期碳酸锂供需维持过剩格局 延续，五月份天气转暖盐湖端开工率将季节性提高，预计国内盐湖产量将逐步抬 升，中期供应减弱，据 Mysteel，近期江西某锂盐企业预计 6 月停产检修 1 个厂， 检修时长 4 个月，预计每月影响碳酸锂月产量约 1500 吨，供给预计下降，缓解 供应压力。需求端中美关税政策变化，在关税豁免 90 天内，利好储能电池出口 预期，缓冲碳酸锂需求疲软的情况，但难以改变产业现状。库存端即 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the success story of Hai'an Rubber, founded by Zhu Hui, who transitioned from a tire repairman to the CEO of a company with annual revenue of 2.3 billion yuan and net profit of nearly 700 million yuan, positioning it as the third-largest global manufacturer of all-steel giant tires [3][9][19]. Group 1: Company Overview - Hai'an Rubber specializes in the production of all-steel giant tires used in heavy machinery and mining vehicles, with a significant portion of its revenue coming from overseas sales [7][9]. - The company has achieved impressive revenue growth, with projections showing an increase from 1.5 billion yuan in 2022 to 2.3 billion yuan in 2024, and net profit rising from 354 million yuan to 679 million yuan during the same period [9][19]. - Hai'an Rubber's primary revenue source is the sale of all-steel giant tires, which accounted for approximately 74.01% of total revenue in 2024, while the tire operation management business contributed 25.99% [6][8]. Group 2: Market Position and Clientele - Hai'an Rubber is recognized as the third-largest player in the all-steel giant tire market, following Michelin and Bridgestone, and is capable of producing a full range of giant tire specifications [9][19]. - The company has established strong relationships with major clients such as Zijin Mining and XCMG, with revenue from the top five clients increasing from 655 million yuan to 1.29 billion yuan, representing 57.58% of total revenue by 2024 [9][10]. - A notable aspect of Hai'an Rubber's business model is the dual role of some clients as both shareholders and customers, which has raised questions about potential conflicts of interest [10][14]. Group 3: Founder’s Journey and Financials - Zhu Hui, the founder of Hai'an Rubber, started his career as a tire repairman and founded the company in 2005 after returning to his hometown, marking a significant shift towards manufacturing giant tires [16][17]. - Zhu has successfully monetized his stake in the company, cashing out over 350 million yuan through equity transfers and dividends between 2020 and 2022 [18][19]. - The company is currently preparing for an IPO, aiming to raise 2.952 billion yuan, with over 80% of the funds allocated for expanding production capacity [19].

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 29 日 热点品种 原油： 雪佛龙此前在委内瑞拉运营的更广泛的许可证到期。美国特朗普政府 5 月 28 日 向雪佛龙公司颁发了简化版的许可证，允许其继续留在委内瑞拉，对设备进行最 低限度的维护，但禁止在委内瑞拉生产石油，这是美国政府对委内瑞拉石油行业 的制裁升级，其目的是避免向委内瑞拉总统马杜罗政府支付任何可能的款项。雪 佛龙占委内瑞拉石油产量的五分之一。目前尚不清楚该政策是否会扩展到委内瑞 拉石油行业的其他外国合作伙伴。另外特朗普威胁称可以对伊朗和俄罗斯加大制 裁大幅削减伊朗和俄罗斯石油出口，不过特朗普的威胁只是现在促成美伊核协议 和俄乌停火的谈判手段。5 月 28 日第 39 届 OPEC+部长级会议宣布维持 25-26 年 产量基线不变，并将根据成员国最大可持续产能制定 2027 年产量基线，5 月 31 日还将举行 OPEC+自愿减产 8 国会议，届时可能达成 7 月增产 41.1 万桶/日的协 议。目前伊朗和俄罗斯原油出口受制裁影响不 ...

投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 28 日 热点品种 沪铜： 沪铜今日高开低走震荡收跌。国家统计局数据显示，1—4 月份，全国规模以上工 业企业实现利润总额21170.2亿元，同比增长1.4%。其中，汽车制造业下降5.1%。 美联储对于利率稳定的预期有所加强，美元指数小幅反弹压制铜价。刚果大型铜 矿（卡库拉）因地震停产，并撤回 2025 年产量指引，加深矿端供应趋紧预期。 供给方面，截止 5 月 23 日，我国现货粗炼费(TC)-44.3 美元/干吨，RC 费用-4.44 美分/磅，TC/RC 费用依然处于负值，但下滑幅度明显放缓，冶炼厂暂时没有大幅 检修，主要系长协订单及副产品弥补亏损，但利润负值状态下，市场偏紧预期依 然存在。4 月精炼铜(电解铜)产量 125.4 万吨，同比增加 9%;进口精炼铜数量 30.02 万吨，同比降低 11.97%，国内精炼铜产量维持高位，同比增速大幅增加， ...

特朗普总统真是做生意的天才啊，他忽悠全世界国家和地区，谁对中国加征关税，就能获得美国对等关税的"免死金牌"。 《华尔街日报》5月23日报道说，特朗普政府最近在与各国的谈判中，提出了一个要求，那就是对中国商品加征关税，作为与美国达成贸易协议的条件。 目前看来这项要求，是美国与其他国家地区，签署贸易协议的"硬性条件"。 这也怪不得，美国"解放日"以来的关税政策，现在已经一个多月过去了，达成的贸易协议国家，只有跟美国穿一条裤子的，同属盎格鲁撒克逊体系的英国。 连加拿大和澳大利亚这样的国家，都无法跟美国谈拢贸易协议。 《华尔街日报》在报道中，提到了一个细节，不具名的白宫官员指出，美国已经对欧盟提出了要求，坚持让欧盟加入其对中国的经济施压行动，并希望欧洲 国家对中国商品征收新关税。 除此之外对于美国而言，特朗普只不过是一个"过客"，激进的全球对等关税政策，最多只能维持4年，这是所有人都明白的。 特朗普之前已经干了一届，这次他干完四年就不可能连任了，那么对于世界各国而言，有必要冒着跟中国彻底翻脸的风险，配合特朗普这货加大对华关税 吗？ 到时候特朗普是舒服了，名利双收、风光卸任，其他国家就要面临中国的各种断供。 但是由于中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the differences between two retail models in China: Sam's Club and Pang Donglai, highlighting how social structures and urban environments influence their business strategies and customer relationships [2][11]. Group 1: Business Models - Pang Donglai offers a long-term companionship service that is more traditional and localized, suitable for China's familiar social structure [2][12]. - Sam's Club operates on a membership sales model to enhance customer loyalty and a direct sales model to reduce costs by collaborating directly with manufacturers [5][6]. - In 2023, Sam's Club generated 80 billion in revenue from 48 stores in China, averaging 1.67 billion per store, which is ten times the revenue of Hema stores [4]. Group 2: Social Structure Impact - The article emphasizes that the social structure is a core differentiator between the two retail models, with Sam's Club thriving in urban areas characterized by a "stranger society" and Pang Donglai succeeding in smaller cities with a "familiar society" [8][11]. - Sam's Club's business logic is based on standardized offerings that provide consumers with stable expectations, while Pang Donglai's success is rooted in community recognition and social relationships [11][12]. - The article notes that the population structure and social dynamics in smaller cities have stabilized, making them more conducive to the business model of Pang Donglai [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market had more rising contracts than falling ones on May 21, 2025. Crude oil faces downward pressure due to supply increases and uncertain demand. The steel market is multi - faceted, with the rebar contract in a weak shock pattern. Other commodities also have their own supply - demand and market situation characteristics, with different price trends expected [3][6][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - OPEC+ started to gradually relax production cuts in April, increasing daily supply to 411,000 barrels in May and planning further increases. The actual increase last month was only 25,000 barrels per day, lower than the plan. The US crude production is near a historical high, and non - OPEC+ countries are also releasing capacity. The Iran nuclear deal may be signed, increasing supply pressure. Demand is affected by the lingering impact of the global trade war and is in the off - season. Crude oil has downward pressure but is also affected by geopolitical risks [3] Rebar - The rebar main contract showed a weak shock trend. Production and apparent demand increased, while factory inventory decreased and social inventory declined for the tenth consecutive week. However, the overall supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly. Supply contraction is difficult in the short term, and cost support has weakened. The market is a game between weakening demand and macro - policy support, with limited short - term upward space [6] Futures Market Overview - As of the close on May 21, domestic futures main contracts had more rising than falling ones. Alumina rose over 3%, while the container shipping European line fell over 7%. Index futures and bond futures also had different performance. In terms of capital flow, there were inflows and outflows in different contracts [8][9] Asphalt - The asphalt production rate increased, but actual demand is yet to recover. Refinery inventory is at a low level. With the possible signing of the Iran nuclear deal and crude oil fluctuations, asphalt is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread as it enters the peak season [11] Plastic - The plastic production rate decreased, and downstream demand is still at a low level. New production capacity has been put into operation, and downstream demand has not fully recovered. With the impact of trade negotiations and the situation of the Iran nuclear deal, plastic is expected to have a small rebound [13] PP - The PP downstream production rate increased slightly, and the enterprise production rate decreased. New production capacity has been put into operation, and downstream recovery is slow. With the impact of trade negotiations and the situation of the Iran nuclear deal, PP is expected to have a small rebound [14] PVC - The PVC production rate decreased, and downstream demand is still relatively low. The Indian anti - dumping policy affects exports, and inventory pressure is large. After a decline in the futures price, it may have a small rebound due to improved macro - sentiment [16] Hot Rolled Coil - The hot - rolled coil main contract rose slightly. Supply pressure has eased, and demand has increased. With the opening of the export window after Sino - US negotiations, demand is expected to strengthen, and the price may rise [17][18] Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper showed an upward trend after opening low. The central bank's LPR cut and the US economic situation have different impacts on copper prices. Supply is expected to be tight, but actual reduction is not obvious. Demand is in the off - season, and copper prices are under pressure but show an upward shock trend [19] Urea - Urea showed an upward trend after opening high. Supply is stable with a slight decline, and demand is currently weak. The market is expected to be bullish in the short - to - medium term but may weaken later [21] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate showed a weak shock trend. The tariff negotiation result is good, but the fundamentals are weak. Supply is decreasing, and demand has seasonal characteristics. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [22][24]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the crude oil industry is "Oscillating Upward", and the strategy is to "Sell Short at High Prices" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ is gradually increasing production, and there is a possibility of accelerating production increases. The actual production increase in May was lower than planned, and the implementation of compensatory production cuts is yet to be verified. The U.S. crude oil production is near a historical high, and with other non-OPEC+ countries releasing production capacity and the potential signing of the Iran nuclear deal, there is significant pressure on crude oil supply [1] - The most panicked period of the global trade war has passed, and some economic cooperation agreements have been reached. However, the pessimistic expectations of the economic damage caused by the trade war have not been fully reversed. Currently, it is the off-season for global crude oil consumption. With the potential signing of the Iran nuclear deal, the crude oil price has reached a resistance level, and there is still downward pressure on crude oil [1] - The signing of the Iran nuclear deal is not as optimistic as previously expected, and there are geopolitical risks, but the probability of Israel attacking Iranian nuclear facilities in the near future is low under U.S. pressure [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract, the 2507 contract, rose 1.18% to 470.1 yuan/ton today, with a minimum price of 462.1 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 475.6 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 1234 to 29076 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - OPEC maintains the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate at 1.3 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast at 1.28 million barrels per day. The IEA raises the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate by 20,000 barrels to 740,000 barrels per day, and expects the growth rate to slow to 650,000 barrels per day for the rest of 2025. The 2026 forecast is raised by 70,000 barrels per day to 760,000 barrels per day. The IEA also raises the 2025 global oil supply forecast by 380,000 barrels per day to 1.6 million barrels per day [3] - U.S. EIA data shows that for the week ending May 9, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 3.454 million barrels, exceeding expectations. The gasoline inventory decreased by 1.022 million barrels, and the refined oil inventory decreased by 3.155 million barrels, both exceeding expectations. The Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 1.069 million barrels [3] - On the supply side, OPEC's March crude oil production was revised down by 4,000 barrels per day to 26.772 million barrels per day, and its April 2025 production decreased by 62,000 barrels per day month-on-month to 26.71 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production cuts in Venezuela and Iran. The U.S. crude oil production increased by 20,000 barrels per day week-on-week to 13.387 million barrels per day in the week of May 9 [4] - According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Administration, the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products increased to 19.836 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 1.80%. The weekly demand for gasoline increased by 0.88% to 8.794 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 9.006 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 3.77%. The weekly demand for diesel increased by 7.27% to 3.777 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.688 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.38%. However, the supply of propane decreased significantly, causing the weekly supply of U.S. crude oil products to decrease by 2.17% month - on - month [4]

热点品种 原油： 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 20 日 欧佩克+产油国从 4 月起实施逐步放松减产计划，并将 5 月日均原油供应量提高 到 41.1 万桶。5 月 3 日，欧佩克+宣布，8 个参与国将在 6 月增产 41.1 万桶/日。 逐步增产可能会被暂停或逆转，具体取决于市场状况。OPEC+增产步伐加快，另 外，消息人士称，欧佩克+可能会在 6 月批准 7 月再一次加速增产，幅度为每日 41.1 万桶。如果配额遵守情况没有改善，欧佩克+计划到 10 月逐步取消此前设 定的 220 万桶/日的自愿减产措施。从最新的欧佩克月报上看，同意增加供应的 八个国家上个月共只增加了 2.5 万桶/日，低于计划的 13.8 万桶/日。目前 OPEC+ 暂未进入增产节奏。不过 OPEC+能否真正进行补偿性减产有待验证，美国原油产 量仍在历史高位附近。加之其他非 OPEC+释放产能，伊朗核协议或将签署，后续 原油供给压力较大。对于需求端，全球贸易战最恐慌时段过去，英国和美国就关 税贸易协 ...

互加关税一个月以后，中美之间的谈判已经落地。但是这并不意味着全球贸易战的结束。相反，迄今为 止，全球依然有超过一半的国家没有和美国达成关税协定。 中美关税战还在持续 作为美国的邻国，墨西哥是美国最大的贸易伙伴。然而，墨西哥和美国的协议不仅仅影响这两个国家。 而且因为墨西哥已经成为中国乃至其他各国的转口国家。所以墨西哥其实是包括中国在内的世界各国， 通往美国的一个贸易通道。 对此，美国财政部长贝森特警告：如今90天的"对等关税"暂缓期限已经过半，如果不能和美国达成新一 轮的关税协定，那么就意味着美国对这些国家的关税，将回到4月2日的"对等关税"的税率。 而迄今为止，欧盟、日本、印度等主要国家和经济体依然没有和美国达成协议。就算是中国这边，依然 还需要和美国再次谈判，毕竟中美之间还有24%的"保留税率"需要谈判。 那么，面对美国的极限施压，这些国家是否会选择屈服？中美之间的24%缓冲关税又会谈成什么样子？ 今天我们就来深度解读这些话题，码字不易，欢迎点赞，转发，收藏。 全球贸易战开启"激烈谈判" 虽然美国宣布"对等关税"。但是从贸易体量来看，特朗普仅仅拟定了18个"重点贸易谈判对象"。可截止 目前，仅仅只有中国和 ...