背后藏着的是一个让所有人都没料到的秘密， 美国的镍矿需求，恰好是中国最大的弱点...... 印尼的这一转变来得太快，也太惊人， 不得不说，面对特朗普的关税大棒， 越南这一跪起到了"表率"的作用， 当地时间7月5日，印尼方面传来消息，将很快与美国签署一份总额达340亿美元的贸易协议。 这个与中国有着深厚经济合作的国家，突然转身向美国投降， 7月3日，印尼宣布与美国签署了一项总额高达340亿美元的贸易协议， 涉及范围之广、金额之大，让所有人都瞪大了眼睛。 协议内容包括从美国采购大量天然气、农产品、电子产品、机械、医疗设备等， 同时印尼还承诺对美国的1700多种商品实施接近零关税。 这哪里还是贸易谈判，更像是印尼向美国递上的"投名状" 同时印尼还宣布将放宽对美国企业的投资限制，给予他们更为优惠的待遇。 很显然印尼对美国敞开大门，这一切的背后，究竟是因为什么呢？ 细细分析印尼的选择，实际上并不难理解。 在特朗普政府挥舞着"对等关税"大棒的威胁下，印尼的经济压力可想而知， 作为一个资源大国，印尼的经济依赖于其丰富的自然资源， 特别是矿产资源，镍矿便是其中的重头戏。 全球新能源产业对镍的需求日益增加，印尼正是全球镍矿的主 ...

中国稀土的牌才刚打出去，美国的转运通道就跟挖了地道一样，不仅一点没断，反而疯狂扩张。你以为货都锁在 关口了，结果人家换个国家贴标，照样绕道流进美国军工厂。 这一场矿产博弈，比战争还安静，比利益更赤裸 。 回想过去，中美之间的矿产博弈，起先是中国用稀土、锑、镓等出口管制做"王牌"，想让美国高科技和军工产业 停摆一下。但没想到，这把锁有缝，缝隙里全是绕道中转。美国企业紧接着发现了口子，大批华丽丽的氧化锑， 披着墨西哥和泰国的"马甲"名正言顺入境。 美国海关数据都看懵了，近半年美国进口的氧化锑，比过去三年加起来还多，其中中国企业的身影根本藏不住 有趣的是，这还不是老电影里偷渡的黑帮片段。不是深夜渔船偷偷靠岸，也不是机场货运化妆服装。而是企业代 理"合规"采购，两国文件齐全，走一圈就成了别人的"合法原产地"。路透社细细扒拉，连公司名都点了：中国广 。 西的锑产品子公司，半年直接让美国进口量暴涨二十几倍。泰国全国锑冶炼厂一共才那么大点产能，几乎送出去 的货都跟中国贴标签一样。 全球市场的基本格局没有变，中国依然是锑、镓、锗这些稀有金属的供应王者 。去年底刚一宣布管制禁令，资本市场就坐不住了。价格直接翻了两三倍，一公斤三 ...

Core Insights - The competition for control over rare earth resources is intensifying between Washington and Beijing, with the launch of the "Quad Critical Minerals Initiative" by the US, Japan, Australia, and India aimed at creating a supply chain independent of China. However, China's newly revised Mineral Resources Law marks a significant strategic advancement in its rare earth sector [2][7]. Group 1: China's Dominance in Rare Earths - China holds nearly 90% of global rare earth patents, establishing a formidable technical barrier that the Quad countries struggle to overcome [3]. - The US's "Mine to Magnet" initiative can only meet 15% of military demand, while Japan's Hitachi Metals has closed its US factory due to high costs [3]. - China's investment in environmental management has led to an 85% recovery rate in rare earth extraction, significantly higher than that of Western countries [3]. Group 2: Environmental Costs and Challenges - Western nations often overlook the substantial environmental costs associated with rare earth mining, which can be as high as 42% of total costs in Australia, compared to only 15% in China [3]. - Historical failures in the US and Malaysia due to environmental issues highlight the challenges faced by Western countries in replicating China's success in green mining practices [3]. Group 3: Internal Conflicts within the Quad - The "Quad Critical Minerals Initiative" is marred by internal conflicts, with Japan and India facing diplomatic tensions with the US, and Australia’s AUKUS project under scrutiny [4][6]. - The only rare earth mine in the US, Mountain Pass, still relies on China for processing, while Japan's seabed mining efforts are hindered by high costs [6]. Group 4: China's Strategic Policy Changes - The revised Mineral Resources Law in China emphasizes national security in mineral resource management and introduces a system for total mining control and strategic reserves [7]. - China's rare earth exports dropped by 45% in the second quarter of 2025, while exports of high-value-added products increased, indicating a shift towards controlling the value chain [7]. - The overall narrative suggests that China's technological, environmental, and policy advantages position it favorably in the ongoing rare earth competition, undermining Western efforts to reduce reliance on Chinese resources [7].

财经早察主播 董静怡 究竟是"让美国再次伟大"还是"让美国走向衰败"？ 今天让我们来聊一聊美国总统特朗普刚刚签署的"大而美"法案，这是一个可能改变美国未来十年经济格 局的重大法案。 此前，这个法案在国会通过得并不轻松，众议院只以218票对214票的微弱优势通过，参议院甚至要靠副 总统万斯的一票才打破僵局，足可见争议之大。那么，这部法案究竟会给美国经济带来什么？是真正 的"伟大"，还是加速社会撕裂的导火索？让我们一起来看看。 这部法案的核心其实就两点：税收减免、削减福利。这届美国政府和共和党议员们当然要借机吆喝，声 称减税可以加速经济增长，新关税政策和大幅削减社会事业支出，还会让国家财政更加稳健，诸如此 类。但很快人们就发现，这个法案其实就是一句话：给富人减税，给穷人减福利。 法案延续了2017年特朗普第一任期时的《减税与就业法案》，将企业所得税锁定在21%，同时提高了多 项个人免税额度，比如小费收入2.5万美元以下免税、加班工资1.25万美元免税、老年人额外6000美元免 税等。这些政策看似让民众赚便宜，但仔细看就会发现，真正的受益者是高收入群体。耶鲁大学的研究 就说了，收入前1%的家庭将获得45%的减税红利 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how the U.S. has circumvented China's mineral export ban by importing key minerals like antimony through third countries, leading to a significant increase in U.S. imports of these minerals despite China's restrictions [3][5][10]. Group 1: U.S. Actions and Responses - The U.S. government has been secretly importing minerals from China via third countries like Mexico and Thailand to bypass China's export ban on critical minerals [5][8]. - Reports indicate that from December 2022 to April 2023, the U.S. imported 3,834 tons of antimony oxide from Thailand and Mexico, which is more than the total imports from the previous three years [8][10]. Group 2: China's Export Controls - In response to U.S. sanctions, China implemented strict export bans on key minerals such as antimony, gallium, and germanium starting December 2023 [3][5]. - China has also tightened controls on dual-use items to prevent their export to the U.S. [3]. Group 3: Consequences of Circumvention - The circumvention of China's export controls has rendered these measures ineffective, undermining China's leverage in U.S.-China relations [10]. - This situation highlights the internal challenges China faces, as domestic entities may be colluding with foreign parties to smuggle critical minerals out of the country [11][13]. Group 4: Government Actions - In light of the situation, China's Ministry of Commerce has initiated a special operation to combat the export of critical minerals to the U.S. through third countries [11].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a slight increase today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.01% to 3510.18 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.61% and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.80% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.71 trillion yuan, an increase of 218 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The market sentiment appears to be strong in the short term, with over 2900 stocks rising [1] Sector Performance - Leading sectors today included securities, non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and steel, while financials, telecommunications, photovoltaics, and dividends lagged [1] - The market showed a preference for small-cap stocks over large-cap stocks, with growth stocks outperforming value stocks [1] Policy Insights - The "anti-involution" theme is identified as a potential main line for the second half of the year, with a focus on upstream sectors leading the way [3][4] - Recent meetings emphasized the need to regulate low-price competition and promote the exit of backward production capacity, reminiscent of the supply-side reforms of 2015 [3][4] - The ongoing decline in PPI has drawn policy attention, suggesting potential supply-side adjustments in sectors like steel, coal, and cement [3] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The supply-demand mismatch in upstream resource products is significant, leading to price declines as firms engage in price competition [4][6] - Current demand conditions are similar to those in July of the previous year, but prices have adjusted downward, aligning better with supply-demand dynamics [6] - The performance of consumer goods differs, with companies increasingly adopting price reductions to boost sales volumes [6][7] Historical Context - Historical cases of supply-side contraction have shown that market reactions often lag behind policy announcements, with stock prices typically responding after initial skepticism [7][9] - Past supply-side reforms have led to significant price increases in commodities, although demand-side pressures remain a concern [9][12] International Factors - The U.S. labor market remains resilient, with recent non-farm payroll data exceeding expectations, which has tempered interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve [12][13] - The ongoing trade negotiations and tariff strategies under the Trump administration are expected to create uncertainty in the market [15][16]

0:00 这些天，马斯克要建"美国党"的事炒得沸沸扬扬。他不仅扬言要给美国人民自由，代表80%中间选民， 还要搅局明年中期选举。 在美国，理论上注册成立政党门槛较低。而实际上美国目前也有着数百个小党，但规模和影响力同民 主、共和两大党相比，差距巨大。有句话这样形容：在美国成立一个全国性的"第三党"，可能比把人送 上火星还难。 那马斯克建"第三党"是一场儿戏吗？还是美国社会的深层次矛盾和各派的利益之争已经激烈到他必须另 起炉灶？ 作为亿万富翁、科技圈层的顶流，马斯克是近年来崛起的"科技工业复合体"的代表人物。 他拥有的社交媒体X、特斯拉、SpaceX，背后都是和美国国家利益紧密捆绑的高科技资产。甚至可以 说，他本人就是"美式资本主义"的一个符号。 马斯克成立"美国党"的直接原因是总统特朗普力推的"大而美"法案。法案取消了购买电动汽车的税收减 免。这对作为美国电动汽车制造商特斯拉老板的马斯克而言非常不利。 在"大而美"法案的财富分配之争的表象下，马斯克与特朗普的利益之争，实际上是MAGA派，也就 是"让美国再次伟大"派同科技资本的对立，核心是新老资本的博弈。 特朗普的MAGA阵营代表的是一部分传统产业、白人工薪阶 ...

Group 1 - China's sudden requirement for export licenses for heavy rare earths led to a 74% drop in rare earth magnet exports in May, causing significant concern among U.S. military and renewable energy companies [1][3] - The Chinese government has strategically opened a green channel for the EU and granted temporary licenses to U.S. car manufacturers, indicating a nuanced approach to international relations [1][3] - The policy shift is seen as a response to previous WTO rulings against China's quota system, now framed under national security and non-proliferation, allowing for more flexible control over exports [3][5] Group 2 - The U.S. and its allies, including Japan and Australia, are reacting strongly, with the Pentagon discussing "decoupling" from China and Australian companies seeing stock price surges [5][7] - Rebuilding supply chains is expected to take at least five years, during which China may further solidify its position in the rare earth market [5][7] - The current situation highlights a broader geopolitical strategy where China uses rare earths as leverage against U.S. defense industries, with implications for future regulations in biomedicine and lithium batteries [5][7] Group 3 - The U.S. faces a dilemma: imposing similar controls could harm domestic companies, while negotiating could undermine political standing ahead of midterm elections [7] - The EU is proactively working on the Critical Raw Materials Act to mitigate risks while benefiting from China's green channel [7] - The situation serves as a lesson in modern economic warfare, emphasizing the importance of using export licenses to adjust supply chains rather than outright bans [7]

为啥说这三个要求很离谱，先说俄乌战争，中俄之间的合作是正常的贸易关系，不针对第三方，我们同时还跟乌克兰保持贸易关系呢，中国明确表态不希 望俄罗斯输是因为俄罗斯一旦失败后就轮到中国了。 产能过剩一直是个幌子，从全球视角来看，并不存在所谓产能过剩反而产能还有缺口，这不过是欧盟产业竞争力下降而引发的过度焦虑，而稀土的指责更 离谱了，实际上我们并没有拿稀土难为欧盟。 欧盟误判形势恐落个两头挨打的下场，本来今年是中欧建交50周年，中欧之间安排了不少高层交流议程，但很显然欧盟还在打小算盘，欧盟主席冯德莱恩 突然对中国提出了三项离谱要求。 看来欧盟还是想讨好美国，希望能先跟美国达成贸易协议，这三项要求分别是：要求中国切断与俄罗斯的正常贸易，停止支持俄罗斯；要求中国解决"产 能过剩"问题；要求中国取消稀土的出口管制。 既然欧盟这样出招，中国也算看明白了，本来中国还希望欧盟成为多极化世界中的一极，但显然欧盟跟日韩一样，顶多算是美国的附庸，没有美国的批 准，欧盟啥事都干不了，想想也是，毕竟美国掌控着北约呢。 不光欧盟跳出来找茬，就连乌克兰也突然开始针对中国，泽连斯基不但对五家中国公司实施制裁，乌克兰安全局还在基辅以间谍罪名义逮捕 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: "Macro Market Weekly Report" [2] - Report Date: July 11, 2025 - Author: Liao Hongbin - Investment Consulting License Number: Z0020723 - Contact Phone: 4008 - 8787 - 66 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The A - share market showed positive performance this week, with major indices rising collectively, and small and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chip stocks. The bond market weakened due to the strengthening of the equity market, but the bullish foundation of the bond market remains supported in the short term. The commodity market faces pressure from factors such as US tariff policies and domestic deflation, but supply reduction expectations may provide some support. The dollar rebounded slightly, and the euro - dollar exchange rate was affected by factors such as tariff negotiations and inflation [6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions Stocks - A - share major indices rose collectively this week, with the ChiNext Index rising over 2%. The four stock index futures also rose collectively. The market's reaction to Trump's new tariff announcement was dull, and the release of June inflation data and positive corporate earnings pre - announcements were positive for the market. Market trading activity increased slightly compared to last week. Allocation suggestion: cautious waiting and seeing [6]. Bonds - Bond futures weakened this week. The recent strength of the equity market suppressed bond market sentiment, but the weak economic fundamentals, balanced and loose liquidity, and low inflation provide support for the bond market. Allocation suggestion: cautious waiting and seeing [6]. Commodities - The Wind Commodity Index fell by 0.33%, while the CSI Commodity Futures Price Index rose by 1.02%. US tariff policies and domestic deflation pressure suppress commodity demand, but supply reduction expectations due to domestic over - capacity reduction policies may support prices. Allocation suggestion: buy on dips [7][8]. Foreign Exchange - The euro - dollar exchange rate declined. The dollar rebounded slightly due to strong non - farm data and the passage of the tax - cut bill, while the euro area faces complex tariff situations and inflation trends. Allocation suggestion: cautious waiting and seeing [7]. 3.2 Important News and Events Domestic News - China's retirees' basic pensions achieved a "21 - year consecutive increase", with an overall adjustment level of 2% of the 2024 monthly per - capita basic pension. The "14th Five - Year Plan" economic increment is expected to exceed 35 trillion yuan, and this year's economic aggregate is expected to reach about 140 trillion yuan. The State Council issued policies to support stable employment, and Premier Li Qiang met with the WTO Director - General [16]. International News - The Fed's June meeting minutes showed a dovish signal, and the probability of a rate cut increased slightly. Trump announced new tariff policies on multiple countries, and many countries responded, with some expressing regret and others threatening counter - measures [12][18]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - China's June CPI annual rate was 0.1%, ending four consecutive months of decline, and the PPI annual rate was - 3.6%. In the US, the number of initial jobless claims in the week ending July 5 was 227,000. In the UK, the May three - month GDP monthly rate was 0.5%, and the manufacturing and industrial output monthly rates were negative. Germany's May industrial output monthly rate was 1.2%, and France's June CPI monthly rate was 0.4%. Japan's May trade deficit was 522.336 billion yen [13][19]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - Next week, important economic data will be released in multiple countries, including China's June export and import annual rates in US dollars, social consumer goods retail sales, and industrial added value; the US's June CPI, PPI, and retail sales; the UK's June CPI and unemployment rate; and Japan's June core CPI [84].