证券研究报告 行业研究——数据专题 [Tabl Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 e_ReportType] | 本次评级——看好 | | --- | | 上次评级——看好 | 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 邮箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 刘奕麟 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524040001 联系电话：13261695353 邮箱：liuyilin@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大 厦B座 邮编：100031 原油月报：关税政策影响下， [Table_Title三大机构下调需求预期 ] [Table_ReportDate0] 2025 年 5 月 7 日 | 原油价格回顾 5 | | --- | | 全球原油库存 6 | | 全球原油供给 8 | | 全球原油供给总览： 8 | | 全球主要区域原油供给情况： 9 | | 全球原油需求 18 | | 全球原油需求总览： 18 | | 全球主要区域原油需求情况： 20 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are expected to be volatile. Although short - term geopolitical disturbances and potential declines in US crude oil production have led to a short - term upward repair in market sentiment, the over - production of Kazakhstan and Iraq, and the expected increase in supply from OPEC+ may put pressure on prices [1]. - Fuel oil prices are expected to be volatile. The reduction in East - West arbitrage arrivals in May will support the low - sulfur market, and high - sulfur fuel oil is also supported by the expected improvement in Middle - East summer power generation demand. However, the low raw material procurement demand and the arrival of Middle - East supplies will also have an impact [2]. - Asphalt prices are expected to be volatile. With the repair of processing profits, supply is expected to increase. The expected acceleration of special bond issuance and the start of terminal projects with the warming weather will support demand, but attention should be paid to the pressure brought by the increase in supply [2]. - Polyester prices are expected to be volatile and weak. The decline in the prices of PX, PTA, and EG, the weak sales of polyester yarns, and the maintenance of some devices all indicate a weak market [2][4]. - Rubber prices are expected to be volatile and weak. Although Thailand's proposal to reduce import tariffs and the postponement of the rubber tapping season may support the market, the high raw material prices may lead to high tapping enthusiasm, and the weak terminal demand will still put pressure on prices [4][5]. - Methanol prices are expected to be volatile and weak. The supply is expected to increase, while the demand will remain relatively stable in May, leading to a loosening of spot price support [6]. - Polyolefin prices are expected to be volatile and weak. Although the supply is expected to decline due to refinery maintenance, the demand will enter the off - season, and the inventory decline will slow down [6]. - PVC prices are expected to be in low - level volatility. The real - estate construction off - season will reduce the demand for PVC downstream products, and the approaching implementation of the Indian BIS certification may lead to a decline in exports [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI June contract closed at $59.09/barrel, up $1.96 or 3.43%; Brent July contract closed at $62.15/barrel, up $1.92 or 3.19%; SC2506 closed at 465.9 yuan/barrel, up 8.1 yuan or 1.77%. Kazakhstan and Iraq have over - produced. The US API crude oil inventory decreased by 4.49 million barrels, and the EIA predicts that the US crude oil daily output in 2025 will be 13.42 million barrels, about 100,000 barrels less than last month's forecast [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, FU2507 closed at 2,862 yuan/ton, up 1.13%; LU2506 closed at 3,405 yuan/ton, up 1.73%. The reduction in East - West arbitrage arrivals in May will support the low - sulfur market, and high - sulfur fuel oil is supported by the expected improvement in Middle - East summer power generation demand [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, BU2506 closed at 3,424 yuan/ton, up 2.42%. With the repair of processing profits, supply is expected to increase. The expected acceleration of special bond issuance and the start of terminal projects will support demand [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4,362 yuan/ton, down 1.62%; EG2509 closed at 4,130 yuan/ton, down 0.6%. The sales of polyester yarns in Zhejiang and Jiangsu are weak, and some devices are under maintenance [2][4]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, RU2509 closed at 14,815 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan/ton; NR closed at 12,555 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton. Thailand proposes to reduce import tariffs, and the rubber tapping season is postponed, but the terminal demand is weak [4][5]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,420 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand will remain relatively stable in May [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of PP in East China was 7,150 - 7,300 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to decline due to refinery maintenance, but the demand will enter the off - season [6]. - **PVC**: On Tuesday, the price in the East - China PVC market decreased. The real - estate construction off - season will reduce the demand for PVC downstream products, and the inventory pressure will increase [6][7]. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on May 6, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes compared with April 30, 2025 [8]. Market News - The US API data shows that in the week of May 2, the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 4.49 million barrels, and the analysts expected a decrease of 2.5 million barrels [13]. - On May 6, the EU announced a plan to terminate the import of Russian energy by 2027 [13]. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the historical price trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [15][17][19] - **Main Contract Basis**: It shows the historical basis trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [27][29][33] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the historical spreads of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [40][42][46] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: It shows the historical spreads and ratios between different varieties of energy and chemical products, such as the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt, etc. [61][62][65] - **Production Profits**: It shows the historical production profits of some energy and chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [68][70][71] Team Member Introduction - The research team includes Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, each with rich experience and professional titles in the field of energy and chemical research [73][74][75]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货原油日报 更新时间：2025年05月07日08时18分 | 原油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 5月6日 | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | 绝对值 | Sc | 元/桶 | 458.90 | -12.20 | 百分比 -2.59% | 绝对值 -34.50 | 百分比 -6.99% | | 原油期货 | WTI | 美元/桶 | 59.00 | 0.78 | 1.34% | -3.77 | -6.01% | | Brent | | 美元/桶 | 62.04 | 1.00 | 1.64% | -4.46 | -6.71% | | Sc-WTI | | 美元/桶 | 4.73 | -2.47 | -34.30% | -0.94 | -16.52% | | 内外价差 | Sc-Brent | 美元/桶 | 1.69 | -2.69 | -61.42% | -0.25 | -12.69% | | Brent-WTI | | 美元/桶 | 3.04 ...

事项：2025年5月3日，OPEC+宣布自愿额外减产的八个国家对之前的减产计划进行调整，引发油市巨 震，布油下跌1.5%并跌破60美元/桶关键点位。 中信证券主要观点如下： 智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，本次会议OPEC+超预期增产计划不只是产量超预期增加，而 是对于OPEC+自2022年以来挺油价政策态度的转向和后续外交博弈的担忧。该行认为本次超预期增产 主要与沙特等主导国希望维持组织的纪律性以及将要到来的美沙外交活动相关。当前全球原油供需结构 逐渐逆转并呈现"松平衡"状态，若OPEC进一步增产则将逐渐呈现"供大于需"的现象，油市后续或仍存 在压力。综合来看，在供给和风险事件的扰动下，国际油价整体或仍偏弱震荡，若关税扰动下宏观经济 读数趋弱的预期兑现则对油价形成新的拖累。当前该行维持大宗商品市场表现黄金>铜>油的判断。 当前全球原油供需结构逐渐逆转并呈现"松平衡"状态，若OPEC进一步增产则将逐渐呈现"供大于需"的 现象，油市后续或仍存在压力 本次会议相较前次的主要变化 第一，增产计划超预期。在5月增产规模的基础上，6月进一步调整了此前的自愿减产计划，增加41.1万 桶/日的生产调整，相当于此前的 ...

2025 年 5 月 6 日 行业研究 OPEC+加速增产进程，关注地缘政治和原油需求预期变化 ——石油化工行业周报第 401 期（20250428—20250504） 要点 OPEC+推出激进产量政策引发油价下跌，关注增产落地情况。本周 OPEC+于 产量会议上同意将 6 月份的石油供应增加 41 万桶/日，市场对原油供给端担 忧加剧，油价快速下跌。截至 2025 年 5 月 2 日，布伦特、WTI 原油分别报收 61.45、58.38 美元/桶，分别较上周五下跌 6.7%、7.6%。此次增产与上个月 宣布的幅度相当，增产的直接原因是主要成员国的不遵守协议行为，特别是伊 拉克和哈萨克斯坦。除非各国同意达成超产补偿协议，否则沙特考虑以类似的 速度逐步取消 OPEC+此前承诺的 220 万桶/日自愿减产措施。考虑到超产补偿 协议可能达成，我们预计 OPEC+的实际产量增长将低于计划水平，建议密切 关注 OPEC+的增产落地情况。 特朗普持续对伊朗原油销售施压，地缘政治局势对油价仍有支撑。本周美国 总统特朗普称所有购买伊朗石油或石化产品的行为必须立即停止，任何从伊朗 购买任何数量石油或石化产品的国家或个人都将立即 ...

【冠通研究】 原油：继续下跌 制作日期：2025年5月6日 【策略分析】 此前空单部分止盈 欧佩克+产油国从4月起实施逐步放松减产计划，并将5月日均原油供应量提高到41.1万桶，随后 OPEC+补偿性减产规模小幅扩大，可以很大程度覆盖5月份的增产量，但五一节前哈萨克斯坦能源部 长宣称石油产量水平是由国家利益决定的，不是OPEC+，可以看出某些国家的补偿性减产动力不足。 对于OPEC+能否真正进行补偿性减产有待验证。5月3日，欧佩克+宣布，8个参与国将在6月增产41.1万 桶/日。逐步增产可能会被暂停或逆转，具体取决于市场状况。OPEC+增产步伐加快，另外，消息人 士称，欧佩克+可能会在6月批准7月再一次加速增产，幅度为每日41.1万桶。如果配额遵守情况没有 改善，欧佩克+计划到10月逐步取消此前设定的220万桶/日的自愿减产措施。美国原油产量仍在历史 高位附近。加之其他非OPEC+释放产能，原油供给压力较大。需求端，全球贸易战最恐慌时段过去， 美国正在与日韩澳印等国洽谈贸易协议。但也需注意法国财长表示欧美关税谈判距离达成协议还很 远。美国4月消费者信心指数连续第五个月下降，跌至新冠疫情以来的最低水平。全球贸易 ...

德邦证券主要观点如下： 供需趋向宽松，油价或震荡偏弱 受OPEC+增产和特朗普关税等因素影响，油价中枢在4月初出现快速下移，下旬虽有所反弹，但整体走 势仍显弱势，布伦特处于65美元/桶附近震荡。向后展望： ①供给：此前OPEC+原定增产计划是自2025年4月始，到2026年9月止，增产原油总规模约220万桶/日， 月均增产约12万桶/日，叠加阿联酋因产量基准调整带来的1.67万桶/日的月均额外增量，月均增产约14 万桶/日。5月OPEC+意外宣布实施超预期的石油增产，增产幅度扩充至约原计划3倍的41.1万桶/日，6月 宣布延续41.1万桶/日的增产措施，以此节奏推进下，我们预计OPEC+增产计划将在今年10月前完成， 较原定计划截至时间大幅提前，或进一步加剧市场对原油供应过剩的担忧。 ②需求：短期来看，春季检修背景下需求或阶段性放缓，美国原油累库进程尚未结束，据隆众资讯，五 一前后预计维持年内高位，预计5月中旬逐步转入去库。 长期来看，美国关税政策或存在新的调整，特朗普表示将在三四周内与贸易伙伴达成协议，但从三大机 构对原油需求前景的预测来看，均出现大幅下调，IEA/EIA/OPEC 4月报预测2025年全球 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-05-06 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：下跌 中期观点：震荡偏弱 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 原油 2507 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 下跌 | 弱势运行 | 增产超预期，原油低开弱势运行 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 参考观点：弱势运行 核心逻辑：欧佩克+产油国 6 月进一步加快增产节奏，同时美国页岩油产量也稳步增长，这令油市供 应过剩预期加重。而处在 5 月份，北半球原油需求仍维持淡季模式，6 ...

那咱们中长线投资者该怎么看这事？记住三个字：看趋势，别慌短期。首先，原油这东西从来都是"政治+供需"的双重博弈。欧佩克+这次增产，短期肯 定打压油价，但长期得看两件事：一是全球经济复苏的势头能不能撑住需求，二是美国页岩油、新能源替代这些变量会不会捣乱。举个例子，要是下半 年美国通胀反弹，美联储加息重启，那原油需求可能进一步萎缩，油价说不定还得往下探；但要是全球制造业回暖，新能源车渗透率增速放缓，那供应 过剩的压力可能只是暂时的。 另外，给大家提个醒：最近别盲目跟风做空或者抄底。欧佩克+内部矛盾虽然激化，但沙特的底线很清楚——油价不能跌破成本线太多（据说沙特原油生 产成本不到20美元/桶，但财政平衡需要油价在80美元左右）。所以这次大跌更像是"内部整顿"的短期震荡，而不是趋势性反转。咱们中长线布局，不妨 多关注两个信号：一是欧佩克+下次会议的产量政策有没有调整，二是美国原油库存和页岩油钻井数的变化。如果库存持续累库，页岩油增产，那可能真 得小心"熊途漫漫"；要是库存开始去化，那说不定是个分批建仓的机会。 最后总结一下：原油这波大跌，本质上是欧佩克+"家法伺候"不听话的成员国，短期搅乱了市场预期，但中长线怎么走， ...

6. EIA报告：04月25日当周美国除却战略储备的商业原油进口549.8万桶/日，较前一周减少9.1万桶/日。 4. EIA报告：美国原油产品四周平均供应量为1965.8万桶/日，较去年同期增加0.29%。 5. EIA报告：04月25日当周美国战略石油储备（SPR）库存增加106.5万桶至3.985亿桶，增幅0.27%。 2. EIA报告：04月25日当周美国国内原油产量增加0.5万桶至1346.5万桶/日。 3. EIA报告：除却战略储备的商业原油库存减少269.6万桶至4.4亿桶，降幅0.61%。 金十数据整理：美国至4月25日当周数据六大看点一览 1. EIA报告：04月25日当周美国原油出口增加57.2万桶/日至412.1万桶/日。 ...