| Market | 国投期货 | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年08月07日 | | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ななな | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 文☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | 【原油】 隔夜国际油价回落，SC09合约日内跌0.97%。周三特朗普因印度购买俄油对其加征25%关税，但将于21天后执 行,同时在8月8日俄乌停火协议截止日前的2天,特朗普表示美俄会谈成果积极，俄罗斯或通过空中停火等形式 达成阶段性协议。种种迹象表明美国持续威胁的对俄制裁最终落地或不及预期，地缘风险溢价大幅消退。上周 美国EIA原油库存超预期下降302.9万桶，但旺季后原油供需展望仍偏宽松，关注美国对俄制裁的最终落地情 况,油市或再次转向悲观供需面主导的偏弱行情。 【燃料油&低硫 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View - The crude oil market is expected to experience volatile price movements. The market is influenced by factors such as the seasonal peak travel season, changes in US crude oil inventories, OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical tensions, and concerns about the US economy [1]. Group 3: Strategy Analysis - The recommended strategy is range-bound trading. The seasonal peak travel season has led to low US crude oil inventories. However, the latest EIA report shows a larger-than-expected decline in gasoline inventories and a significant unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, resulting in an overall increase in refined oil inventories. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, which may impact the supply - demand balance. Concerns about reduced supply from Russia and Iran due to geopolitical factors and worries about the US economy also affect the market [1]. Group 4: Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main futures contract (2509) of crude oil dropped by 1.55% to 508.8 yuan per ton, with a lowest price of 502.2 yuan per ton and a highest price of 513.2 yuan per ton. The open interest increased by 24 to 28,256 lots [2]. Group 5: Fundamental Tracking - EIA lowered the 2025 US crude oil production forecast by 50,000 barrels per day to 13.37 million barrels per day and raised the expected increase in global oil inventories in the second half of 2025 from 800,000 barrels per day to 900,000 barrels per day. IEA reduced the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate by 16,000 barrels per day to 704,000 barrels per day and the 2026 rate by 18,000 barrels per day to 722,000 barrels per day. OPEC maintained the 2025 and 2026 global crude oil demand growth rates at 1.29 million barrels per day and 1.28 million barrels per day respectively. As of the week ending July 25, US crude oil inventories increased by 7.698 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 1.288 million barrels [3]. Group 6: Supply and Demand - On the supply side, OPEC's May crude oil production was adjusted down by 6,000 barrels per day to 27.016 million barrels per day, while its June 2025 production increased by 219,000 barrels per day to 27.235 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production increases in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. US crude oil production increased by 41,000 barrels per day to 13.314 million barrels per day in the week of July 25. On the demand side, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.801 million barrels per day, 2.52% higher than the same period last year. However, the single - week supply of US crude oil products decreased by 1.76% month - on - month due to a significant decrease in other refined oil products, despite increases in gasoline and diesel demand [4].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil processing industry Core Insights - The EIA and IEA have raised their global oil supply forecasts for 2025, with predictions of 10510.89 million barrels per day and 10460.15 million barrels per day respectively, reflecting an increase from 2024 [2][33] - Global oil demand is projected to increase in 2025, with IEA, EIA, and OPEC forecasting demand at 10368.24 million barrels per day, 10353.85 million barrels per day, and 10510.00 million barrels per day respectively [2][33] - Oil prices have shown a decline in the first half of 2025, with Brent crude down by 9.77% and WTI down by 10.78% since the beginning of the year [3][9] Summary by Sections Oil Supply - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global oil supply for 2025 at 10510.89, 10460.15, and 10396.00 million barrels per day respectively, with year-on-year increases of +209.60, +180.46, and +161.06 million barrels per day [2][33] - For Q3 2025, the predicted supply increases are +251.25, +226.71, and +171.59 million barrels per day [33] Oil Demand - The demand forecasts for 2025 are 10368.24 million barrels per day (IEA), 10353.85 million barrels per day (EIA), and 10510.00 million barrels per day (OPEC), with increases from 2024 of +70.42, +79.72, and +126.00 million barrels per day respectively [2][33] Oil Prices - As of July 23, 2025, Brent crude is priced at 68.51 USD/barrel, WTI at 65.25 USD/barrel, with respective declines of -2.85% and -4.76% over the past month [3][9] Oil Inventory - Predictions for global oil inventory changes in 2025 are +142.65 million barrels per day (IEA), +106.29 million barrels per day (EIA), and -114.00 million barrels per day (OPEC), with an average change of +44.98 million barrels per day [28][2] Related Companies - The report mentions several related companies including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and PetroChina [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. Trade Representative stated that the tariff policy will remain largely unchanged, with specific tariffs set for imports from Canada (35%), Brazil (50%), India (25%), and Switzerland (39%) [2] - Tariffs are established based on bilateral trade surpluses and deficits, and these rates are considered fixed [2] Group 2 - OPEC+ has decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day starting in September, with a total increase of 1.919 million barrels per day from April to August [4][5] - The decision to increase production comes despite previous voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day, which were extended until March 2025 [4] - Current oil prices are under pressure due to concerns over global energy demand, influenced by U.S. employment data and tariff policies [5][7] Group 3 - Global oil supply is increasing, with June production rising by 628,000 barrels per day compared to May, while demand also increased by 1.82 million barrels per day [6] - OECD commercial oil and petroleum product inventories decreased by 4.2 million barrels by the end of June, indicating a tightening supply situation [6] Group 4 - The macroeconomic environment is creating uncertainty in oil demand, with potential economic drag from U.S. tariff policies [7] - Despite being in a traditional consumption peak season, gasoline consumption is weaker than expected, while diesel margins remain high but are weakening [7] Group 5 - The long-term outlook suggests a trend towards oversupply in the oil market, with OPEC+ expected to gradually increase production, leading to further pressure on prices [8] - Domestic chemical products are currently at historical low prices, which may provide some stability in profits despite the downward pressure from oil prices [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week's view on crude oil: Hold long positions and consider adding more on dips. Brent and WTI may challenge $80/barrel in Q3, and SC may challenge 580 yuan/barrel. In the medium to long term, there is significant downward pressure on oil prices. Brent and WTI may test $50/barrel this year, and SC may test 420 yuan/barrel [6]. - The logic behind the view: Excluding geopolitical and trade - war uncertainties, the market is bullish in Q3, with the rhythm possibly adjusted to the second half of the quarter. This is mainly due to OPEC+ increasing production less than expected, a decline in US shale oil production, and a relatively low global inventory center, making de - stocking difficult to disprove. Overseas macro - market risk appetite has deteriorated, and short - term market pricing of "recession" may provide good buying opportunities. There is also a risk of a decline in Russian oil exports due to potential sanctions. In the medium to long term, the market is bearish due to the long - term oversupply pressure from OPEC+, Brazil, Guyana, Norway, etc., making inventory accumulation difficult to disprove [6]. - Valuation: The short - term valuation is at a medium level, and there is still a chance of a rally in the second half of Q3 [6]. - Strategies: For the short - term, hold long positions and add more if the price continues to correct. For the long - term, short at high prices and trend - short. Pay attention to long 09 and short 10, long 09 and short 11 in the inter - period strategy. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for the inter - variety strategy [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro - Global stock markets have declined, market risk appetite has deteriorated, and the gold - oil ratio has rebounded [11]. - Overseas inflation has risen, and the service PMI has rebounded [12]. - The RMB exchange rate has continued to strengthen, and social financing has recovered [13]. 2. Supply - OPEC+ may continue to increase production. Attention should be paid to the decline in non - OPEC+ production. For example, Iraq's Kurdish region has a 200,000 - barrel - per - day production halt due to a drone attack, while the UAE's production has exceeded 3 million barrels per day, and its July exports reached 3.31 million barrels per day (close to a record high). The US Gulf of Mexico has added 150,000 barrels per day of new capacity, but the closure of California refineries has offset some of the supply increase [6][7][8]. - Presented the monthly and weekly export volume data of OPEC+ core member countries, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, etc., as well as the weekly export volume data of non - OPEC+ countries such as the US, Canada, and Mexico [15][24][42]. - The number of US shale oil drilling rigs and production have rebounded [50]. 3. Demand - The operating rates of refineries in the US and Europe are at seasonal highs. The operating rate of China's major refineries has stabilized, and the operating rate of independent refineries has rebounded [52]. - Asian demand is differentiated. China's refinery processing volume in June reached 15.2 million barrels per day (a month - on - month increase of 1.2 million barrels per day), but high refined oil inventories have curbed subsequent purchases. India has reduced its imports of Russian oil due to US tariff threats and shifted to Angolan crude oil. In Europe, there is a shortage of distillates in north - western Europe, while there is an oversupply of fuel oil in southern Europe [6][9]. 4. Inventory - US commercial inventories have rebounded, and Cushing region inventories have stabilized but are significantly lower than historical averages [55]. - European crude oil inventories have rebounded, while diesel and gasoline inventories have decreased [60]. - Domestic refined oil profit margins have recovered [62]. 5. Price and Spread - The North American basis has rebounded slightly [65]. - The monthly spread has declined [66]. - SC is stronger than the external market, and the monthly spread has weakened [69]. - Net long positions have rebounded [70].

Investment Rating - The oil and gas industry is rated as "Outperform" [4][6] Core Views - In July 2025, Brent crude oil futures averaged $69.4 per barrel, a slight decrease of $0.4 from the previous month, while WTI averaged $67.1 per barrel, down $0.6 [1][13] - OPEC+ announced an accelerated production increase of 548,000 barrels per day for August, with plans to complete the remaining increase by September 2025 [2][17] - Global oil demand is expected to grow by 700,000 to 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, with similar growth projected for 2026 [3][18] - The expected price range for Brent crude oil in 2025 is between $65 and $75 per barrel, while WTI is projected to be between $60 and $70 per barrel [3][19] Summary by Sections July Oil Price Review - Brent crude oil futures closed at $73.2 per barrel at the end of July, while WTI closed at $70.0 per barrel [1][13] - The oil price experienced fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand [1][13] Oil Price Outlook - OPEC+ has extended its voluntary production cuts and announced an increase in production rates [2][17] - The demand for oil is expected to rise significantly, with major energy agencies forecasting increases in daily consumption [3][18] Key Data Tracking - As of July 30, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settled at $70.00 per barrel, reflecting a 7.5% increase from the previous month [40] - U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.337 million barrels per day in July, showing a slight decrease [46] - The average operating rate of U.S. refineries was 94.9% in July, indicating strong demand for refined products [56]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated. The monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets declined, and the absolute prices dropped on Friday. The market is mainly concerned about the progress of trade negotiations between the US and other countries, as well as the US sanctions on Russia. Fundamentally, global oil inventories decreased slightly. The US EIA commercial inventory decreased, while diesel inventories in ARA and Singapore continued to decline, and diesel inventories in the US and China increased. The cracking spread of European diesel strengthened slightly, and global refinery profits declined slightly but remained high year - on - year. In China, refinery operations were volatile, with Shandong local refineries increasing production. Recently, gasoline and diesel inventories at refineries increased significantly, and refinery profits weakened month - on - month, leaving limited room to boost operations further. The current peak season for crude oil demand, high diesel profits, and the US plan to impose secondary sanctions on Russia support the near - term supply and demand of crude oil. However, the peak - season factors have been largely realized, and the monthly spreads have started to decline recently. In the medium term, the absolute prices of crude oil face downward pressure due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy. Attention should be paid to the contradiction between non - OPEC production and the near - term diesel inventory [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily News - The US and its allies condemned Iran's intelligence agency for creating increasing national threats in their countries [3]. - The US Middle East envoy met with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to discuss issues such as the Gaza cease - fire agreement, the humanitarian situation in Gaza, and the Iranian nuclear issue [3]. - Canadian oil and gas producer Cenovus Energy lowered its annual upstream production forecast due to the temporary closure of its Rush Lake facility. Its upstream production in the second quarter was lower than the previous year, while downstream oil processing volume increased [3]. 3.2 Regional Fundamentals - In the week of July 25, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.157 million barrels per day to 2.698 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production increased by 41,000 barrels to 13.314 million barrels per day, and commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 7.698 million barrels to 427 million barrels, a 1.84% increase [3][4]. - The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 238,000 barrels to 402.7 million barrels, a 0.06% increase in the week of July 25. The import of commercial crude oil (excluding strategic reserves) was 6.136 million barrels per day, an increase of 160,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [4][5]. - The average four - week supply of US refined oil products was 20.801 million barrels per day, a 1.55% increase compared to the same period last year [4]. - From July 18 - 24, the operating rate of major refineries remained flat, and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. In China, the production of gasoline and diesel at refineries decreased, while inventories increased. The comprehensive profits of major refineries and local refineries declined month - on - month [5]. 3.3 Weekly View - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated, with the monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets declining and the absolute prices dropping on Friday. The market is focused on US trade negotiations and sanctions. Fundamentally, global oil inventories decreased slightly, and refinery profits declined slightly but were still high year - on - year. In China, refinery operations were volatile, and refinery profits weakened. The peak - season factors for crude oil demand have been largely realized, and the monthly spreads have started to decline. In the medium term, the absolute prices face downward pressure, and attention should be paid to the contradiction between non - OPEC production and near - term diesel inventory [6].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced to maintain interest rates unchanged and has no immediate plans for rate cuts, leading to a rise in the US dollar index which pressured gold prices down to around 3268 [2][4] - Trade negotiations have extended with Mexico for an additional 90 days, while agreements have been reached with other trade partners, resulting in a decrease in overall market risk aversion as tariffs are implemented [4] - Technical analysis indicates that after a sharp decline, gold showed signs of recovery but faced resistance around 3314, suggesting a short-term bearish trend with key support levels at 3270/66 [4] Group 2 - The US Energy Information Administration reported that US crude oil production reached a record high of 13.49 million barrels per day in May [6] - As of July 25, US crude oil inventories increased by 7.7 million barrels to 426.7 million barrels, influenced by a decline in exports and upcoming OPEC+ production increases, indicating a loose supply-demand balance in the market [6] - Technical outlook for crude oil suggests a bearish sentiment, with recommendations to sell on rebounds around 69.6, targeting levels of 68/67 [6]

Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report - Report Date: July 31, 2025 - Report Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated. The monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets declined, and the absolute prices dropped on Friday. The market is mainly focused on the progress of trade negotiations between the US and other countries. The President of the European Commission will meet with Trump on Sunday, and Trump said there is a 50 - 50 chance of reaching an agreement. The market is also concerned about US sanctions on Russia, with Trump threatening sanctions if a cease - fire agreement is not reached within 10 days. Fundamentally, global oil product inventories decreased slightly, US EIA commercial inventories decreased, diesel inventories in ARA and Singapore continued to decline, while diesel inventories in the US and China increased. European diesel cracks strengthened slightly, and global refinery profits declined slightly but remained high year - on - year. In China, refinery operations fluctuated, with Shandong refineries increasing production. Recently, gasoline and diesel inventories at refineries increased significantly, and refinery profits weakened quarter - on - quarter, limiting the scope for further increasing operations. Although factors such as the peak demand season for crude oil, high diesel profits, and the US plan to impose secondary sanctions on Russia support the near - term supply and demand of crude oil, the impact of the peak season has been largely realized, and the monthly spreads have started to decline. In the medium term, the absolute prices face downward pressure due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the contradiction between non - OPEC production and near - term diesel inventories [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily News - The US imposed the largest - scale sanctions on Iran since 2018, targeting over 50 entities and individuals and more than 50 oil tankers and container ships controlled by Iranian businessman Mohammad Hussein Shamkhani [3]. - European natural gas prices neared a two - week high as US President Trump threatened to punish India for buying Russian energy, raising concerns about global supply. Trump increased pressure on Russia to reach a cease - fire in Ukraine, and traders expected the US to take action against Russian oil and gas buyers including India. Gas prices briefly dropped after Polish Prime Minister Tusk saw new prospects for Russia to stop the invasion of Ukraine [4]. - Indian refiners asked the Indian government for clarification on whether their purchases of Russian crude would be affected by Trump's new social media post. Trump said he would impose a 25% tariff on Indian exports to the US starting August 1, and warned of additional penalties due to India's continued purchase of Russian energy. Indian companies buy over 1 million barrels of Russian crude per day [4]. 3.2 Regional Fundamentals - According to the EIA report, in the week ending July 25, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.157 million barrels per day to 2.698 million barrels per day [5]. - In the same week, US domestic crude oil production increased by 41,000 barrels to 13.314 million barrels per day [6]. - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 7.698 million barrels to 427 million barrels, a 1.84% increase [6]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.801 million barrels per day, a 1.55% increase compared to the same period last year [6]. - US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 238,000 barrels to 402.7 million barrels, a 0.06% increase [6]. - US imports of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves were 6.136 million barrels per day, an increase of 160,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [6]. - From July 18 - 24, the operating rate of major refineries remained flat, and the operating rate of Shandong refineries increased slightly. In China, refinery output of gasoline and diesel decreased, and inventories of both increased. The comprehensive profits of major refineries and local refineries declined quarter - on - quarter [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated. The monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets declined, and the absolute prices dropped on Friday. The market is mainly concerned about the progress of trade negotiations between the US and other countries as the US tariff deadline approaches. Fundamentally, global oil product inventories decreased slightly, with US EIA commercial inventories and ARA and Singapore diesel inventories de - stocking, while US and domestic diesel inventories increased. The cracking spread of European diesel strengthened slightly, and global refinery profits declined slightly but remained high year - on - year. The absolute price of crude oil faces downward pressure in the medium term due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the contradiction between non - OPEC production and short - term diesel inventories [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily News - US President Trump stated that he is not worried about the oil issue if sanctions are imposed on Russia. US Commerce Secretary Lutnick mentioned that Trump accepts that natural resources will not face tariffs in EU trade. Traders expect OPEC+ to significantly increase production again to complete the current round of production restoration. The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending July 25 was 1.539 million barrels, compared with an expected - 2.5 million barrels and a previous value of - 0.577 million barrels [3] 2. Regional Fundamentals - According to the EIA report, in the week of July 18, US crude oil exports increased by 337,000 barrels per day to 3.855 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production decreased by 102,000 barrels to 13.273 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 3.169 million barrels to 419 million barrels, a decrease of 0.75%; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.576 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.01%; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory decreased by 200,000 barrels to 402.5 million barrels, a decrease of 0.05%; and the import of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves was 5.976 million barrels per day, a decrease of 403,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week. From July 18 - 24, the operating rate of major refineries remained flat, and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. The production of gasoline and diesel at Chinese refineries decreased, and the inventories of both increased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries and local refineries decreased month - on - month [3] 3. Weekly Viewpoints - Crude oil prices fluctuated this week. The market focuses on US trade negotiations and potential sanctions on Russia. Globally, oil product inventories decreased slightly, and refinery profits declined slightly. In China, the operating rate fluctuated, and refinery inventories increased, with profits weakening. The short - term supply and demand of crude oil are supported by factors such as the peak demand season, high diesel profits, and potential US sanctions on Russia, but the peak - season factors have been largely realized, and the monthly spreads have started to decline. The absolute price of crude oil faces downward pressure in the medium term [4]