正式进入8月，特朗普如期宣布，对印度商品加征25%关税，并威胁额外惩罚的消息。尽管在前段时间，印度方面多次接触特朗普，可终归未能阻挡"关税 战"到来。而随之而来的，也和外界预期的一样，卢比汇率应声暴跌，股市指数大幅下挫。印度很生气，后果"很严重"？莫迪或把自己逼入绝境。 在美国打响"关税战"第二天，莫迪强硬释放信号，印度将继续按长期合同采购俄罗斯石油，直接将特朗普最近天天挂在互联网上宣传的"施压有效论""印度 屈服"等话题，打成了"假消息"。也是这一步，让美印这对"战略伙伴"，终究走到了自上世纪 90年代以来最紧张的对峙边缘。 乍看起来，这场冲突的导火索是贸易失衡。美国商务部数据显示，2024年美印商品贸易额达1288亿美元，印度对美顺差458亿美元，特朗普政府将此归咎于 印度"全球最高之一"的关税壁垒和"最严格"的非关税措施。 但深层矛盾却是，华盛顿试图以关税为杠杆，同时逼迫印度在两个敏感领域让步。第一，开放农业与乳制品市场；第二，终止对俄罗斯能源和军事装备的采 购。特朗普想 "一箭双雕"，既想缩小贸易逆差，又想借印俄关系向莫斯科施压。但这种将经济议题与地缘政治捆绑的做法，恰恰触碰了印度的核心利益。 从数据 ...

Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Current oil price decline is driven by OPEC+ production increase, and supply-demand logic will dominate oil price trends in the short term. Suggest trading in a band, with support levels for WTI at [63, 64], Brent at [66, 67], and SC at [495, 505]. Consider capturing volatility contraction opportunities in the options market [2]. - **Pure Benzene**: In the short term, pure benzene is expected to fluctuate weakly. The BZ2603 contract should follow the trends of oil prices and styrene [5]. - **Styrene**: In the short term, styrene is expected to fluctuate weakly. Consider closing short positions in EB09 and look for opportunities to short at high prices [5]. - **Methanol**: MA09 is expected to accumulate inventory, while MA01 has seasonal demand and potential supply reduction from Iranian plants. Consider buying MA01 at low prices [30]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market is in a weak state. It is expected that the number of warehouse receipts in the main production areas will increase in August. Consider holding short positions at high prices [40]. - **PVC**: The PVC market is under pressure, with increasing inventory and weak demand. Future prices are likely to continue to decline [40]. - **Polyolefins**: In August, there is pressure on inventory accumulation. However, there is potential for restocking in the seasonal peak season. Consider closing short positions at 7200 - 7300 and continue to hold LP01 [44]. - **Urea**: In the short term, the urea market is dominated by bullish sentiment. There is a game between positive factors such as the Indian tender and negative factors such as the off - peak agricultural demand [52]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip markets are all affected by supply - demand relationships and oil prices. They are expected to fluctuate in certain ranges, and corresponding trading strategies are provided [56]. Summaries by Catalog Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 7, Brent was at $66.92, WTI at $64.41, and SC at 502.10 yuan/barrel. Some spreads such as Brent - WTI and EFS decreased, while others like WTI M1 - M3 and SC M1 - M3 increased [2]. - **EIA Data**: As of August 1, US crude oil production was 1328.4万桶/日, refinery utilization rate was 96.9%, and commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 302.9万桶 [60]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 6, the price of pure benzene and related products changed. For example, the pure benzene - naphtha spread increased by 4.9%. Styrene prices also had minor fluctuations [5]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports decreased, and the开工 rates of related industries had different changes [5]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 6, MA2601 closed at 2503, MA2509 at 2396. The MA91 spread decreased by 7.00% [28]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 9.50%, while port inventory increased by 14.48% [29]. Caustic Soda and PVC - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 6, the price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained unchanged, and the price of PVC in East China increased slightly [35]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry's开工率 increased, while the PVC total开工率 decreased. The demand for caustic soda and PVC downstream industries was weak [38][39][40]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 6, L2601 closed at 7382, PP2601 at 7120. Some spreads such as L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 changed [44]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP enterprise inventories increased, and the开工 rates of related devices decreased [44]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 6, the price of urea in various regions increased slightly. The futures prices of different contracts decreased [52]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily production increased slightly, and factory inventory decreased by 3.24% [52]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 6, the prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and naphtha decreased, and the prices of downstream polyester products had different changes [56]. - **开工率**: The开工 rates of PX, PTA, and other industries had different degrees of change [56].

Summary of the Metal Chromium Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the metal chromium industry, highlighting significant price increases in the first half of the year due to various factors including rising chromium ore prices, a 20%-30% increase in market demand, and government stockpiling policies [1][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Price Dynamics**: Metal chromium prices surged over 20,000 RMB per ton, driven by increased demand and stockpiling by intermediaries. Recent price adjustments saw a slight decrease of about 5% [1][3][5]. - **Government Stockpiling**: The Chinese government plans to stockpile 5,000 tons of metal chromium starting in 2025, with potential future plans influenced by geopolitical factors [1][6]. - **Production Capacity**: Major companies in the industry are operating at 110%-120% capacity, limiting the ability to increase production further due to tight supply of raw materials like germanium trioxide [1][11]. - **High-Temperature Alloy Demand**: The military sector's demand for high-temperature alloys has significantly increased, with metal chromium accounting for 60%-70% of high-end stainless steel production [1][12][18]. - **Geopolitical Influences**: Geopolitical tensions have led to increased stockpiling of ammunition and related materials, driving up the demand for high-temperature alloys [1][20]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Shortages**: A potential market shortage is anticipated from late August to September due to stockpiling needs, which may push prices above 100,000 RMB per ton in the first half of next year [2][42]. - **Purity and Pricing**: Only a few domestic companies can produce 99.99% pure metal chromium, with prices for this high-purity product being 30%-40% higher than 99.9% products [2][25][28]. - **Export Regulations**: China has implemented export licensing for cobalt, which may extend to stricter measures for metal chromium in the future [22]. - **Production Challenges**: The production of high-purity metal chromium is complex and requires proprietary processes, limiting the number of producers capable of achieving such purity levels [25][29]. - **Environmental Regulations**: Current environmental standards are stringent, impacting new projects more than established companies that have already invested in compliance [35][36]. Conclusion The metal chromium industry is experiencing significant price fluctuations driven by demand, government policies, and geopolitical factors. The production capacity is constrained, and the market may face shortages, leading to further price increases. The focus on high-purity products and environmental compliance will shape the industry's future dynamics.

国泰航空（00293.HK）今日发布的上半年财报显示，公司净利润36.51亿港元，同比增长1.1%，营收 543.09亿港元，同比增长9.5%。 虽然内地的上市航司尚未披露半年业绩，但从多家发布的半年业绩预告来看，国泰航空依然是最赚钱的 中国航司。 （文章来源：第一财经） 在公告中，国泰集团主席贺以礼将业绩的增长归因于客运量增加、货运表现稳定，以及燃油价格下 降，"得益于今年上半年的燃油价格比以往便宜，公司的燃油成本下降13%。" 今年上半年，国泰航空客运运力同比增加26.3%，旅客周转量同比增加30%，日均载客同比增加27.8%， 客座率84.8%，同比增加2.4个百分点，不过，由于市场上的运力增加，公司的整体收益率下跌12.3%。 "上半年由于我们投入的运力大幅增加，比如美国航线增加了50%，欧洲航线增加了30%，票价和收益 率也相应会受到一些影响，逐渐回归正常水平，"国泰集团顾客及商务总裁刘凯诗在业绩说明会上表 示，但上半年的客运需求依然很强，预计下半年需求的势头还会保持。 记者注意到，在今日披露半年报的同时，国泰还宣布行使购买权，增购14架波音777-9飞机，首架波音 777-9预计2027年交付。 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **bond market** and **government debt** supply dynamics in China, along with implications for the **equity market** and **credit bonds**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Government Debt Supply**: The net financing scale of government bonds in Q3 is expected to reach **4.08 trillion yuan**, which may exert pressure on the bond market due to seasonal supply increases [1][4]. 2. **10-Year Treasury Yield**: The 10-year treasury yield is anticipated to be at **1.6%** as a bottom, with a breakthrough in the second half of the year being difficult. The upper limit is projected between **1.8% and 1.9%** [1][6]. 3. **Market Dynamics**: The bond market is influenced by various factors including redemption risks, tariff negotiations, geopolitical tensions, and stock market volatility, which add uncertainty to demand [1][5][6]. 4. **Stock Market Influence**: Short-term stock market fluctuations have limited impact on the bond market, but the long-term attractiveness of equities is increasing. A shift in focus from bearish to long-term opportunities in the stock market is recommended [1][7][8]. 5. **Investment Strategy**: A strategy of flexible trading and wave operations is advised for Q3 due to expected volatility. The focus should be on equities rather than relying solely on the bond market, which may see reduced returns and increased volatility [1][9]. 6. **Tax Policy Impact**: The new VAT regulations are expected to have a short-term impact on the bond market, favoring older bonds and benefiting ordinary credit bonds and deposits [1][11]. 7. **Credit Bond Market**: The credit bond market is expected to have more opportunities than risks in August, with a focus on the performance of the stock market as a key variable [1][28]. 8. **Market Disturbances**: Key disturbances in the market include policy changes, stock market volatility, and significant events such as military parades and political meetings, which may affect market sentiment [1][29]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **PPI Forecast**: A slight upward adjustment in PPI to around **-3.2%** is predicted for July, with potential recovery in August and September depending on demand-side support [1][18]. 2. **Investment Opportunities**: Notable investment opportunities include sectors like **robotics**, **AI**, **military**, and **pharmaceuticals**, which are expected to show structural growth [1][14]. 3. **Long-term Economic Outlook**: The economic outlook for Q3 remains resilient, but Q4 will require close monitoring of income and internal demand dynamics [1][22]. 4. **Credit ETF Performance**: Recent performance of credit ETFs showed a rebound after a period of adjustment, indicating potential recovery in investor sentiment [1][30]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, highlighting the bond market's current state, future expectations, and strategic recommendations for investors.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting short - term long positions and profit - taking on dips, and left - side trading for Russia's geopolitical expectations in September and the hurricane supply - disruption season when oil prices drop significantly [2]. - Methanol is currently over - valued, with supply pressure increasing as enterprise profits are high and production starts to recover, while demand is weak due to port olefin shutdowns and the traditional off - season. High inventory and weakening supply - demand fundamentals put pressure on prices [4]. - Urea is in a low - valuation and weak - supply - demand pattern. Although the current price is not high and the room for further decline is limited, it is not advisable to be overly bearish. After the cooling of the domestic commodity sentiment, volatility is expected to gradually decline [6]. - For rubber, there are different views from bulls and bears. Bulls focus on potential production cuts in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increases in the second half of the year, and improved demand expectations in China, while bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal off - season demand, and potential under - performance of production cuts. It is recommended to adopt a neutral approach and trade quickly in the short - term [8][10]. - PVC has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuations. It is necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build - up situation. After the anti - involution sentiment fades, prices have dropped significantly in the short - term [10]. - For benzene styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair, and after the high - level port inventory is reduced, the price is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate upwards [13]. - Polyethylene prices will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short - term, with high production capacity release pressure in August. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. - Polypropylene prices are expected to follow crude oil and oscillate higher in July, with the cost side likely to dominate the market under the background of weak supply and demand in the seasonal off - season [16]. - PX is expected to continue de - stocking. With a neutral valuation, there are short - term opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [19]. - PTA is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, but due to low inventory levels and the approaching end of the off - season for polyester and terminal production, the negative feedback pressure on PX is small. There are opportunities to go long on dips following PX [20]. - Ethylene glycol's fundamentals are expected to weaken from strong. With high overseas device loads and expected increases in arrivals, there is short - term pressure on valuation decline [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Price:** WTI main crude oil futures fell $1.02, or 1.52%, to $66.24; Brent main crude oil futures fell $0.84, or 1.21%, to $68.68; INE main crude oil futures fell 13.60 yuan, or 2.58%, to 514.3 yuan [1]. - **Data:** China's weekly crude oil data showed that crude oil arrival inventory increased by 1.37 million barrels to 207.19 million barrels, a 0.67% increase; gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 1.07 million barrels to 90.85 million barrels, a 1.17% decrease; diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.72 million barrels to 102.78 million barrels, a 0.70% increase; total refined oil commercial inventory decreased by 0.36 million barrels to 193.64 million barrels, a 0.18% decrease [1]. Methanol - **Price:** On August 4, the 09 contract fell 3 yuan/ton to 2390 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 20 [4]. - **Fundamentals:** Affected by overall commodity sentiment, it will gradually return to its own fundamentals. Supply pressure will increase as enterprise profits are high and production starts to recover. Demand is weak due to port olefin shutdowns and the traditional off - season. Port inventory is increasing rapidly, and the basis and inter - month spread are falling [4]. Urea - **Price:** On August 4, the 09 contract rose 24 yuan/ton to 1733 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of + 17 [6]. - **Fundamentals:** Supply is slightly decreasing but still at a relatively high level year - on - year. Enterprise profits are poor, and production is expected to increase gradually. Export demand is lower than expected, and domestic agricultural demand is entering the off - season. Compound fertilizer production for autumn is starting, and enterprise inventories are increasing [6]. Rubber - **Price:** NR and RU rebounded after a decline [8]. - **Fundamentals:** Bulls and bears have different views. Bulls expect production cuts and improved demand, while bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations and seasonal off - season demand. Tire factory operating rates are decreasing, and natural rubber inventories are increasing [8][9]. - **Operation Suggestion:** Adopt a neutral approach and trade quickly in the short - term. Consider long positions in RU2601 and short positions in RU2509 for opportunistic band trading [10]. PVC - **Price:** The PVC09 contract fell 34 yuan to 4981 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4960 (+40) yuan/ton, the basis was - 121 (- 26) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 137 (- 1) yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals:** Cost is stable, overall production capacity utilization is 76.8%, with an increase of 0.05%. Downstream demand is weak, and inventories are increasing. Enterprises' comprehensive profits are at a high level, and valuations are under pressure [10]. Benzene Styrene - **Price:** The spot price remained unchanged, the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened [12]. - **Fundamentals:** The BZN spread is at a relatively low level and has room for upward repair. Cost support exists, supply is increasing, port inventory is decreasing significantly, and demand is oscillating upwards in the off - season [12][13]. Polyethylene - **Price:** The futures price fell [15]. - **Fundamentals:** Market expects an improvement in China's PMI in July, and cost support exists. Spot prices are falling, and inventory pressure is loosening. Demand is weak in the off - season, and there is high production capacity release pressure in August [15]. - **Operation Suggestion:** Hold short positions [15]. Polypropylene - **Price:** The futures price fell [16]. - **Fundamentals:** Shandong refinery profits are rebounding, and production capacity utilization is expected to increase. Demand is weak in the off - season, and cost is likely to dominate the market. There is limited planned production capacity release in August [16]. PX - **Price:** The PX09 contract fell 58 yuan to 6754 yuan, PX CFR fell 8 dollars to 838 dollars, the basis was 142 (- 18) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 26 (+4) yuan [18]. - **Fundamentals:** PX production capacity utilization is high, downstream PTA short - term maintenance is increasing, and overall production capacity utilization is decreasing, but PTA inventory is low, and polyester and terminal production are approaching the end of the off - season. PX is expected to continue de - stocking [18][19]. PTA - **Price:** The PTA09 contract fell 46 yuan to 4698 yuan, the East China spot price fell 60 yuan to 4690 yuan, the basis was - 15 (- 2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 34 (+4) yuan [20]. - **Fundamentals:** PTA production capacity utilization is decreasing, and new devices are being put into operation. Supply is expected to increase, but due to low inventory levels and the approaching end of the off - season, the negative feedback pressure on PX is small [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Price:** The EG09 contract fell 16 yuan to 4389 yuan, the East China spot price fell 25 yuan to 4455 yuan, the basis was 78 (+5) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 28 (+6) yuan [21]. - **Fundamentals:** Production capacity utilization is slightly decreasing, overseas device loads are high, and arrivals are expected to increase. Downstream demand is gradually recovering from the off - season, but inventory de - stocking is expected to slow down, and valuations are under pressure [21].

巴基斯坦经济本来就摇摇晃晃，外债高，外汇储备少，靠中国贷款和投资过日子。现在美国来了，说帮你开发石油，还能吸引投资，这对巴基斯坦来说是块 肥肉，能分散风险。专家分析，这协议不光是油，还包括矿产、IT、加密货币等领域合作，等于美国在南亚重塑影响力，拉巴基斯坦入伙，免得它完全倒向 中国那边。 巴基斯坦的石油储备到底咋样？特朗普说"巨量"，但数据可没那么夸张。根据美国能源信息署的估算，巴基斯坦探明石油储备大概在2.3亿到3.5亿桶之间， 天然气24万亿立方英尺，全球排名50开外。相比之下，印度石油储备有45亿桶左右，天然气1.3万亿立方米，中东那更是天文数字。巴基斯坦国内石油产量 只够需求的15-18%，天然气60%，剩下全靠进口，尤其是从中东，花了110亿美元一年，占进口总额的20%。 美国总统特朗普前几天突然扔出个大新闻，说跟巴基斯坦签了个协议，一起开发巴方那些所谓的巨量石油储备。时间是2025年7月30日，他自己在社交平台 上发的，语气还挺兴奋的，提到美国能源公司会带头干这活儿，甚至开玩笑说以后巴基斯坦没准儿能卖油给印度。这消息一出，南亚那边就炸锅了，尤其是 印度那边，觉得这是在给自己上眼药。巴基斯坦那边呢， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses India's continued purchase of Russian oil amidst threats of sanctions from the U.S. government, highlighting the geopolitical implications and India's strategic partnerships with Russia and the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: U.S. Pressure on India - U.S. President Trump has threatened sanctions against India for purchasing Russian oil, indicating a potential increase in import tariffs on Indian goods if the purchases continue [1][2] - Trump's senior advisor, Stephen Miller, criticized India's actions as funding Russia in the ongoing conflict, emphasizing the need for India to stop supporting the war [2] Group 2: India's Oil Imports - India has signed long-term contracts for Russian oil and has no immediate plans to halt these purchases, with both state-owned and private refiners allowed to buy oil from various suppliers [1] - Prior to the conflict, Russian oil accounted for about 1% of India's total oil imports, but this figure has increased significantly since the onset of the war [2] - In May 2023, India reached a peak import rate of 2.15 million barrels per day from Russia, making it the largest source of oil for India [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - From January to June 2023, India's average daily imports of Russian oil were approximately 1.75 million barrels, reflecting a 1% increase from the previous year [3] - In July 2023, there was a noted decrease in oil imports from Russia, which analysts attribute to seasonal factors such as the monsoon and regular maintenance of refineries [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the roller - coaster market in June due to Middle - East conflicts, oil prices were generally volatile in July. Brent crude oil traded in the range of $65 - 73 per barrel. In the last week of July, influenced by Trump's threat of secondary tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil and the sharp downward revision of non - farm payroll data in the US, the oil price fluctuation increased significantly. Geopolitics and macro - sentiment dominated the oil price movement during the period with less prominent fundamental contradictions [3]. - As global refineries reach their annual peak operating rates, the demand for crude oil will experience a shift from strong to weak. China's high crude - oil inventory indicates a disconnection between imports and terminal consumption, which may not be sustainable. With the new supplies from Latin America, the North Sea, etc., entering the market, the oil market will decline in the second half of the year. Unless the US significantly increases sanctions on Russia leading to a notable supply decrease, the center of oil prices will move down [3]. - The short - term oil price will oscillate within a range. If the absolute price returns to a high level, consider short - selling in the medium - term. A Brent crude oil backwardation strategy is recommended [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Price Spread: Geopolitical Concerns and Macro - sentiment Once Again Dominate the Market - In terms of absolute prices, after the June fluctuations, oil prices were volatile in July. Brent traded between $65 - 73 per barrel. In late July, geopolitical and macro - factors increased price volatility. Geopolitics and macro - sentiment dominated the market when fundamentals were less contradictory [10]. - Regarding monthly spreads, the monthly spreads of the three major benchmark crudes remained strong in July, with the near - month premium still very firm. The shape of the forward curve showed a premium structure at the near end and was close to flat at the far end. The monthly spreads of WTI and Brent were weaker than that of Dubai. The short - end structures of CFD and DFL were also relatively firm, indicating good physical demand during the refinery peak season [10]. - For physical discounts, the discounts of North Sea oil varieties were differentiated. The discounts of OseBerg and Johan Sverdrup decreased significantly. The discount of Azerbaijani Azeri crude dropped sharply due to organic chlorine pollution. The discount of West African oil decreased slightly, while the physical discounts of Middle - East oil varieties were firm. The discount of Guyanese crude in Latin America declined from a high level. In North America, the triangular spread of WTI in Cushing, Midland, and Houston narrowed again, indicating that the tight inventory situation in Cushing had not been completely alleviated [10]. - In terms of regional spreads, the Brent - Dubai EFS recently dropped to around $1 per barrel, showing an obvious trend of the East being stronger than the West. The WTI - Brent spread was maintained at around $3.3 per barrel [11]. - Regarding refined - oil spreads, the diesel crack spread and monthly spread declined from high levels. In the short term, factors such as the continuous decline in diesel shipments from the Middle East to Europe, low diesel inventories in the West, and refinery operation issues drove the strong performance of European diesel in June. The east - west diesel spread continued to weaken, promoting more arbitrage shipments from the East to Europe and refineries to switch to diesel production for re - balancing. The diesel contradiction mainly came from the supply and trade sides rather than the demand side [11]. Petroleum Inventory: The Differentiation of Crude - oil Inventories between China and Overseas Continues - According to Kpler's high - frequency inventory data, as of the end of July, the global sea - land crude - oil inventory (excluding China and the US SPR inventory) was about 2.85 billion barrels, which was at a relatively low level in the same period of history. China's on - shore crude - oil inventory continued to increase, with a total of about 1.14 billion barrels (excluding underground SPR). China's high inventory was due to both the active replenishment of strategic reserves to hedge geopolitical risks and the passive inventory build - up caused by the decline in refinery processing volume [22]. - In terms of floating - storage crude - oil, as of the end of July, the global floating - storage crude - oil inventory rose to 89 million barrels, and the Iranian floating - storage crude - oil increased to 48 million barrels. Regarding refined - oil inventories, the global refined - oil inventory increased slightly last week, but the inventory level remained at a five - year low in the same period. Meanwhile, the European diesel inventory continued to decline, and the tight diesel spot situation had not been alleviated [22]. Crude - oil Shipments: Both Shipments and Arrivals Increase Simultaneously - In terms of global shipments, the global crude - oil shipments in July rose to the high level of the same period in the past five years. OPEC's shipments reached 20 million barrels per day but dropped below 17 million barrels per day in the last week of July (mainly due to Saudi Arabia's exports falling below 6 million barrels per day). It is expected that with OPEC's production increase and the decrease in direct - burning power - generation demand for crude oil in the Middle East in summer, OPEC's exports still have room to grow. Non - OPEC shipments reached a high of 21.5 million barrels per day this year. Latin American shipments increased to 5.3 million barrels per day, with the increased supply from Guyana and Brazil offsetting the decreased supply from Mexico and Ecuador. West African shipments were stable at 3.4 million barrels per day, and North African shipments (including transit shipments from Egypt) remained stable at 2.5 million barrels per day. In North America, Canada's crude - oil shipments remained at around 0.8 million barrels per day, and the US shipments remained at a low of 3.1 million barrels per day. The shipments from Russia in the former Soviet Union region dropped to 3.2 million barrels per day, while Kazakhstan's shipments remained at a high of 1.6 million barrels per day. Due to organic chlorine pollution, Azerbaijan's shipments dropped to 0.4 million barrels per day. In the North Sea, Norway's recent oil - field maintenance led to a drop in shipments to 1.5 million barrels per day [24]. - Regarding global arrivals, the recent arrivals rose to a high of 44.2 million barrels per day this year and in the same period of history. The arrivals in Northeast Asia remained at a high of 15.8 million barrels per day, South Asian arrivals increased slightly to 5 million barrels per day, Southeast Asian imports remained strong at 3.6 million barrels per day, the US arrivals dropped to 2.7 million barrels per day, and European arrivals increased significantly recently to 8.9 million barrels per day. As refineries reach their peak operating rates in mid - August and then decline, the arrivals will gradually decrease. Meanwhile, China's high crude - oil imports may reverse in the second half of the year, which will also drag down the arrivals [25][26]. Crude - oil Supply: OPEC Increases Production Cautiously, and Non - OPEC Non - US Production Increases Accelerate - OPEC+'s actual production increase still does not match the quota increase, indicating Saudi Arabia's cautious attitude towards production increase. OPEC's overall released supply is still very restricted. According to OPEC's plan to lift production limits, it will continuously increase production by 0.55 million barrels per day before September to completely cancel the 2.2 million barrels per day production limit. The negotiation between Iraq and Kurdistan on the resumption of oil exports has made some progress, but the Kurdish oil exports have not resumed, and the resumption requires the consent of Turkey [35]. - Recently, the supply situation in Latin America has improved significantly. Brazil's supply has grown strongly supported by the commissioning of four FPSO projects. Guyana is expected to install a new FPSO in the third quarter, one quarter earlier than the market expected. Recently, the two crude - oil pipelines in Ecuador have resumed operation, and Ecuador's crude - oil exports will resume. Argentina's crude - oil supply has continuously reached new highs [35]. - In the US, due to cautious capital expenditure and the slowdown of well - drilling and completion operations, it is expected that the US production will stabilize after reaching 13.5 million barrels per day, and the decline will not be significant. The commissioning of projects in the Gulf of Mexico will partially offset the decline in shale - oil production [35]. Refinery Maintenance and Profits: The Peak of Operating Rates is Approaching - The global refinery shutdown volume continued to decline seasonally. As of the week of July 25, the global shutdown capacity dropped to 5.2 million barrels per day. Refinery units in China, the former Soviet Union, Japan, and Latin America restarted. It is expected that the global refinery operating rate will reach its annual seasonal high in mid - August and then decline, entering the autumn maintenance period from September to October. Meanwhile, as the diesel crack spread declined from a high level, the global refinery profits decreased significantly, especially in the regions east of the Suez Canal [42]. Geopolitics: Trump Threatens Secondary Tariffs on Russian Oil, and India Will Not Abandon Russian - oil Purchases - Regarding the Russia - Ukraine situation, there has been no obvious progress in the cease - fire agreement. The 18th round of EU sanctions has increased the sanctions on Russian oil, including the implementation of a dynamically adjusted price cap on Russian oil and restrictions on third - country refineries from processing Russian oil and re - exporting it to Europe to plug the refining loophole. Trump plans to restore Chevron's operating license in Venezuela, which will help stabilize Venezuela's crude - oil supply. In terms of tariffs, Trump has successively announced trade agreements with various countries, reducing the tariff risk. Trump threatened to impose secondary tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil, mainly targeting China, India, and Turkey, aiming to gain more benefits in tariff negotiations. China will ignore Trump's threat of Russian - oil tariffs, and India also said it will continue to purchase Russian crude oil. India currently purchases up to 2 million barrels per day of Russian crude oil and is the largest buyer of Russian Urals crude oil since the Russia - Ukraine conflict. There is no additional supply in the current market to fill the 2 million barrels per day supply gap of Russian oil [44][47]. Liquidity: Hedge Funds Are Bullish on Diesel, but Positions Are Overcrowded - Recently, in terms of fund positions, there has been a divergence between Brent and WTI. The net long positions of Brent funds have risen to a high level, while the net long positions of WTI funds have decreased significantly. In terms of refined - oil positions, the net long positions of European and US diesel funds are at a high level this year, indicating extremely crowded long positions and a relatively consistent bullish sentiment in the market [50]. Overall Forecast: The Fundamental Situation Will Enter a Turning Point from Strong to Weak in August - As global refineries reach their annual peak operating rates, the demand for crude oil will experience a shift from strong to weak. China's high crude - oil inventory indicates a disconnection between imports and terminal consumption, which may not be sustainable. With the new supplies from Latin America, the North Sea, etc., entering the market, the oil market will decline in the second half of the year. Unless the US significantly increases sanctions on Russia leading to a notable supply decrease, the center of oil prices will move down [54].

Core Viewpoint - The defense and military industry sector experienced an unexpected decline on August 1st, with the ETF (512810) dropping to a low of 2.2%, marking a three-day consecutive decline and falling below the 10-day moving average [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The defense and military sector ETF (512810) saw a cumulative decline of 0.74% over the week, ending a five-week streak of gains, despite a significant trading volume of 4.86 billion yuan, the highest in nearly 11 weeks [2][3] - The ETF recorded a trading volume of 1.11 billion yuan on August 1st, indicating high market activity and strong buying interest despite the price drop [1] Group 2: Sector Dynamics - The recent pullback in the sector is attributed to market sentiment, technical corrections after consecutive gains, and profit-taking ahead of the "August 1st" expectations, while the underlying investment logic remains robust [3] - Key factors supporting future growth include the upcoming military parade, ongoing geopolitical tensions sustaining military trade, and the critical delivery phase of the military's 14th Five-Year Plan, with expectations for accelerated order releases in the third quarter [3] Group 3: Stock Performance - Among the component stocks, 57 declined while 23 rose, with notable declines in ground equipment stocks, particularly North Navigation, which fell by 7% [4] - Major stocks like AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation and China Shipbuilding Corporation also experienced declines of 3.89% and 1.31%, respectively, while Longcheng Military Industry saw a significant fluctuation of 14.85% [4] Group 4: ETF Characteristics - The ETF (512810) encompasses both traditional and emerging military capabilities, covering various hot topics such as commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, large aircraft, deep-sea technology, military AI, and controllable nuclear fusion [5] - The ETF underwent a share split in June, reducing the investment threshold by half, allowing investors to access core military assets for under 70 yuan [5]