投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 国贸期货股份有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 装置检修动态:华东一套250万吨PTA装置预计2月10日开始停车,具体开车时间未定。 ·PTA现货价格 MEG内盘 PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 县 8000 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 5000 700 6200 500 5200 4000 300 100 4200 3000 -100 3200 -300 2000 2023-01 2021-01 2024-01 2026-01 2022-01 2025-01 2025-10 2025-12 2025-02 2025-04 2025-06 2025-08 数据图表 800 POY现金流 现货加工区间 -- 盘面加工区间 DTY到金流 FDY 现金流 800 涤短现金流 600 切片到 700 400 600 200 500 400 0 300 -200 200 -400 100 0 -600 2023-01023-02024-02024-02024-02024-020 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 【一国贸易报 瓶片短纤数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 2026/2/27 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | 指标 | 2026/2/25 | 2026/2/26 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 5285 | 5235 | -50 | 现货资讯: | | MEG内盘价格 | 3670 | 3641 | =29 | 短纤:短纤主力期货跌114至6658。现货市场: | | PTA收盘价 | 5312 | 5260 | -52 | 涤纶短纤生产工厂价格商谈为主,贸易商价格下 | | MEG收盘价 | 3747 | 3700 | -47 | 跌,下游开始逐步复工,场内成交小幅改善。 | | 1.4D直纺涤短 | 6710 | 6685 | -25 | 1.56dtex*38mm半光本白(1.4D)涤纶短纤华东市 | | | | | | 场价格在6530-6800现款现汇含税自提,华北市 | | 短纤基差 ...

市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨1.81%，报2987元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.12%，报3156 元/吨。 短期市场主要矛盾在地缘层面，伊朗局势走向将直接影响原油地缘溢价，从而对包括燃料油在内的能化商品造成 扰动，需要密切关注。 燃料油日报 | 2026-02-27 高硫油市场结构保持坚挺，等待地缘形势明朗 就燃料油自身基本面而言，高硫燃料油市场结构虽然在春节假期期间出现一定调整，但支撑因素仍存。其中，下 游炼厂端需求表现良好，近期我国采购量明显增加，用于填补委内瑞拉重油的缺口。此外，近期运费攀升增加了 燃料油的跨区套利成本，对东西价差以及内外盘价差均存在提振。 低硫燃料油方面，目前市场矛盾相对有限。随着Dangote炼厂RFCC装置重启，科威特供应从高点回落，叠加船燃 加注需求从中东部分转移到亚太地区，近期低硫油基本面边际改善，春节假期期间外盘裂解价差、月差有所回升。 但在估值修复后，低硫燃料油对汽油的价差已大幅回落，这将抑制RFCC装置利润与开工率，从而降低对低硫油组 分的分流效应，抑制低硫燃料油裂解价差的上行空间。 策略 高硫方面：短期震荡偏强，关注伊朗局势走向 低硫方 ...

摘要周五(2月27日)亚洲时段，国际黄金窄幅震荡走弱，目前黄金价格徘徊在5180美元附近，最新黄金 价格报5183.29美元/盎司，跌幅0.01%，地缘政治方面，美伊谈判暂停，伊朗表示取得进展，但美媒表 示美方谈判感到失望，这也意味着美方采取行动不能排除。市场降低未来美联储降息押注下，地缘政治 成为黄金聚焦点，预计仍将在5000美元/盎司上下以高位宽幅震荡的形式。 但路透社称，周四的间接会谈最终未能达成协议，令该地区局势依然紧张。 【技术面分析】 周五(2月27日)亚洲时段，国际黄金窄幅震荡走弱，目前黄金价格徘徊在5180美元附近，最新黄金价格 报5183.29美元/盎司，跌幅0.01%，地缘政治方面，美伊谈判暂停，伊朗表示取得进展，但美媒表示美 方谈判感到失望，这也意味着美方采取行动不能排除。市场降低未来美联储降息押注下，地缘政治成为 黄金聚焦点，预计仍将在5000美元/盎司上下以高位宽幅震荡的形式。 【要闻速递】 英国路透社周四报道称，调解方阿曼表示，美国和伊朗周四就德黑兰核计划的谈判取得了进展，但数小 时的谈判最终未能取得突破，无法避免美国在伊朗大规模军事集结之际可能发动的打击。 阿曼外交部长赛义德.巴 ...

2月27日隔夜市场，伦敦现货 黄金震荡偏强，COMEX黄金 期货跌0.47%，SHFE黄金跌0.25%。地缘局 势未有明确结果，美伊第三轮谈判结束，双方会后表态不一，谈判期间资金押注地缘缓和，盘面一度下 挫， 白银波动更大，纽约银盘中跌4%，随后出现反弹，下周一双方技术团队举行技术谈判。地缘政治 仍是市场焦点，短线黄金以震荡市对待。 ...

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 中东地缘扰动，油价高位震荡，关注美伊谈判进展。地缘：地缘政治主导 油价，美伊日内瓦谈判结束，暂未公布明确谈判结果，3 月 2 日将于维也 | | 原油 | | | | | 高位震荡 | 纳举行技术谈判；核心驱动：供给仍偏过剩，3 月 1 日 OPEC+将举行线 | | ★ | | 上会议，消息称 OPEC+将于 4 月继续增产；关注变量：美国页岩油产量 | | | | 变化，俄乌以及中东地缘进展。 | | | | 跟随成本端油价高位震荡。成本端油价短期受地缘扰动波动加剧，伴随美 | | LPG | | 伊日内瓦谈判，油价高位震荡，液化气跟随成本盘整；供需双增，商品量 | | ★ | 高位震荡 | 与下游化工开工率均上升；库存端偏利空，港口与厂库连续上升。 | | L | 偏弱 | 上游供给充足，LP 价差转负。下游复工较晚，基本面驱动补不足，跟随 板块偏弱震荡。部分装置陆续回归，预计本周产量增加。短期供需驱动不 | | ★ | | | | | | 足，基差延续偏弱格局，关注 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 与灯谜的约会 宝城期货 陈栋 每年的元宵节，杭州的夜是被灯火浸软的。钱江新城的写字楼群还亮着零星的窗灯，像极了交易盘面 上未平仓的头寸，而我夹在下班的人潮里，将满屏的原油曲线与 M1 增速抛在身后，向着河坊街的方向， 赴一场灯火与灯谜的约会。 作为一名沉淀能源化工期货多年的分析师，我的日子总在"地缘政治"的风云与"供需基本面"的推 演中流转。写过三万字的深度报告，算过无数次基差的涨跌，却在元宵这日，格外贪恋市井间的烟火气。 傍晚的河坊街，青石板路被灯笼映得暖红，胡庆余堂的药香混着桂花元宵的甜糯，漫过熙熙攘攘的人群。 今年的灯谜会，竟藏着不少"行业暗语"，像是有人专门为我们这群期货人备下的考题。我站在一盏 荷瓣形油纸灯下，盯着谜面出神："潮涨潮落随大势，买空卖空定盈亏（打一金融品类）"。身旁刚做完 套期保值方案的产业客户老李，捻着胡须笑："这还不简单，咱们天天打交道的期货嘛！"话音未落，不 远处传来一阵欢呼，原来是做风险管理的同事，猜中了"守住底线不踏空，划定红线避风险"的谜底—— 正是我们日日挂在嘴边的"止损线"。 这些平日里冰冷的专业术 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report In the short - term, the market may enter an oscillation and volatility - reduction cycle. The overall market atmosphere is under certain suppression, but in the medium - to - long - term, the commodity bull market is expected to continue. Different industries have their own supply - demand situations and influencing factors, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed based on these [39][45]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance Stock Index - **Market Information**: The annualized basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter are presented. For example, IF's ratios are 4.70%/2.97%/5.48%/4.74% [2]. - **Strategy View**: Affected by factors such as the US - Iran conflict, US tariff policy, RMB exchange rate, and AI business, the stock index is expected to have a relatively strong performance [3]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: The closing prices and changes of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts on Thursday are provided. There are also news about Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the stance of the Bank of Japan. The central bank conducted 320.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 79.5 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy View**: Although inflation recovery has potential suppression on the bond market, and the endogenous power of economic recovery is not stable, the capital side is expected to remain loose. The bond market is expected to continue to oscillate [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver have declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index are reported. The precious metal prices are in horizontal consolidation, with support from Trump's tariff plan and the US - Iran nuclear negotiation, and resistance from the Fed's officials' statements and the expectation of stable US short - term interest rates [7]. - **Strategy View**: The precious metal prices are expected to remain in high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference ranges of 11,300 - 12,000 yuan/gram for Shanghai gold and 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/kilogram for Shanghai silver [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Affected by the US - Iran negotiation and other factors, copper prices are in oscillatory adjustment. LME inventory has increased, and domestic social and bonded area inventories have also changed. The spot discount in the East China region has expanded [11]. - **Strategy View**: The US tariff policy provides emotional support, but the refined copper supply is relatively excessive. Short - term copper prices are expected to be oscillatory, with reference ranges of 101,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 13,100 - 13,400 US dollars/ton for LME copper [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices have adjusted. LME inventory has decreased, and domestic inventory has increased. The spot discount in the East China region has narrowed [13]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term price support is strong. The reference ranges are 23,400 - 23,900 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum and 3,100 - 3,170 US dollars/ton for LME aluminum [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices have declined. The social inventory of zinc ingots in China has increased, and the downstream enterprise start - up rate is average [15][16]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc industry in China shows a weak trend. Zinc prices may follow the rise of copper and aluminum prices. The zinc ore TC has stopped falling and stabilized [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices have increased. Both domestic and foreign inventories have risen rapidly, and the industrial situation is weak [17]. - **Strategy View**: The strategic stockpiling of battery enterprises may support the lead price in the short - term. It is necessary to observe the start - up of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices have declined. The prices of nickel ore are stable, and the price of nickel iron has increased [18]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of nickel is shrinking, and nickel prices are expected to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference ranges of 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai nickel and 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton for LME nickel [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices are in oscillatory operation. The inventory has decreased, and the supply and demand are marginally loose [20]. - **Strategy View**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with reference ranges of 380,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton for domestic tin and 48,000 - 53,000 US dollars/ton for LME tin [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate has increased. The production has increased, and the inventory has decreased [22]. - **Strategy View**: Affected by the export ban, the short - term spot shortage is expected to continue. It is necessary to be cautious about the increase of selling orders. The reference range for the 2605 contract is 164,000 - 180,000 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index has declined. The spot price in Shandong has increased, and the overseas price is stable. The inventory has increased [24]. - **Strategy View**: The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton for the AO2605 contract [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices have increased. The raw material prices have changed, and the inventory has increased [27]. - **Strategy View**: The supply pressure will be relieved, and the price has a strong bottom support. It is recommended to be bullish, with a reference range of 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy has increased. The inventory has changed, and the trading volume has increased [29]. - **Strategy View**: The cost has support, and the demand is expected to improve. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have declined. The inventory and trading volume have changed [32]. - **Strategy View**: The black series is in a bottom - game stage. It is expected to oscillate within a range with a weak center of gravity in the short - term. It is necessary to focus on the demand recovery and policy trends [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices have declined. Some steel enterprises in North China will implement emission reduction measures during important meetings [34]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas supply has recovered, and the demand is okay. The price is expected to oscillate weakly and stably. It is necessary to pay attention to domestic terminal demand and policy guidance [35]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke have declined. The spot prices have different changes, and the basis is positive [36]. - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, the upward catalysis of coking coal is weak. It may face a callback risk in March - May, but it may rise in the second half of 2026 [39]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices have declined, and the inventory has increased. Soda ash prices are stable, and the inventory has increased [40][42]. - **Strategy View**: Glass is expected to oscillate, with a reference range of 1,025 - 1,100 yuan/ton. Soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly and stably, with a reference range of 1,140 - 1,200 yuan/ton [41][43]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon prices have increased, and ferrosilicon prices have also risen slightly [44]. - **Strategy View**: The future market is mainly affected by the black market and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore supply and "dual - carbon" policies [45][46]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices have declined, and polysilicon prices have also decreased [48][50]. - **Strategy View**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be weak. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [49][51]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices are in oscillatory operation. The start - up rates of tire enterprises are low, and the inventory has increased [53][54]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to trade according to the short - term trend of the disk and set stop - losses. It is also recommended to go long on NR and short on RU2609 [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil prices have declined, and the inventory data of related products have changed [57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices have changed, and the MTO profit has increased [59]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices have changed, and the basis is negative [61]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short urea due to the expected negative fundamentals [62]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices and basis of pure benzene and styrene have changed. The supply and demand sides have different performances [63]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take profits gradually as the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired [64]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices have declined. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak [66]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply - demand situation is poor, and the fundamentals are weak [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices have declined. The supply and demand sides have changed, and the inventory has increased [68]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts. There is a risk of rebound [69]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices have declined. The supply and demand sides have changed, and the inventory has increased [70]. - **Strategy View**: The inventory cycle is about to end. It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [71]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices have declined. The load and inventory have changed [72]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil in the medium - term [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices have declined. The supply and demand sides are weak, and the inventory has changed [74]. - **Strategy View**: The PE valuation has room to decline, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices have declined. The supply and demand sides are weak, and the inventory pressure is high [76]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [78]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices have different changes. The actual supply pressure has been reduced [80]. - **Strategy View**: The spot price is expected to be weak, but there may be support for the far - month contracts [81]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices are mainly stable. The supply is normal, and the market digestion speed is okay [82]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term spot price decline is limited. It is recommended to wait and see or trade short - term [83]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The export and production data of soybeans in the US and Brazil are provided. The domestic soybean inventory has changed [84]. - **Strategy View**: The protein meal price may be bottoming out due to the increase in import costs [86]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The production, export, and inventory data of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia are provided. The domestic oil inventory has increased [87]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term soybean oil price is stronger. It is recommended to buy when the oil prices stop falling at low levels [88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The production data of sugar in India, Brazil, and Thailand are provided. The domestic import data are also given [89][90]. - **Strategy View**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the international sugar market. The domestic sugar price is suppressed by high inventory. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The US cotton export data and the domestic cotton inventory data are provided [92]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to buy on dips if the downstream start - up rate after the Spring Festival is good [93].

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices opened mixed, with the Dow Jones up by 0.38%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 saw declines of 0.24% and 0.04% respectively. As of the report, the Dow was up 0.27%, the Nasdaq down 0.84%, and the S&P 500 down 0.36% [1] - A total of 2,712 stocks advanced while 2,381 stocks declined [1] Company-Specific Developments - Nvidia's earnings report exceeded expectations but received a lukewarm response, leading to a stock price drop of over 3.6% [1] - Among popular Chinese concept stocks, the majority experienced declines, with BeiGene down 6.56%, Beike down 5.85%, Baidu down 4.83%, and Luckin Coffee down 4.71% [5][6] Commodity Market - On February 26, international silver prices continued to decline, with COMEX silver futures dropping over 5% at one point, and spot silver down over 3%. As of the report, COMEX silver futures were down 4.6% and spot silver down 2.55% [9] - Gold prices also saw a slight drop, with COMEX gold futures down over 1% [9] - WTI crude oil fell nearly 3%, while Brent crude oil dropped over 2% [11] Geopolitical Developments - The latest round of US-Iran negotiations began in Geneva, focusing on nuclear issues, with Iran expressing a willingness to discuss sanctions relief and nuclear rights [14] - The negotiations are at a critical stage, with potential for a temporary or phased agreement to ease regional tensions, but failure to resolve core differences could lead to a breakdown in diplomatic efforts and increased military risks [15]

截至2025年12月31日止6个月录得应占股东综合亏损的主要原因是由于因地缘政治的原因导致数据中心 相关的重要系统及芯片货源短缺，遂令智慧城市行业的发展持续滞后。集团的智慧城市解决方案业务收 入及营运业绩录得显著减少。 格隆汇2月26日丨冠军科技集团(00092.HK)公告，集团于截至2025年12月31日止6个月录得总收益约3350 万港元，同比增加约54.4%。增长主要归因于期内成功完成多项大型太阳能发电系统项目。公司拥有人 应占亏损约为2780万港元，去年同期亏损则约为2160万港元。董事会决议不会宣布派发截至2025年12月 31日止6个月中期股息(2024年：无)。 ...