Group 1: Conflict Analysis - The ongoing US-Iran conflict presents significant uncertainty, with potential military escalation and geopolitical implications for the Middle East[3] - If the conflict persists, the US may increase ground troop deployments, leading to a potential "Iraq War" or "Vietnam War" scenario, impacting global capital markets[3] - The conflict could lead to a systemic rise in energy prices, benefiting resource-rich countries like Russia and Canada, while negatively affecting the US and Iran[3][18] Group 2: Economic Implications - Russia stands to gain significantly from the conflict, with potential additional revenue of approximately $36 billion to $45 billion due to rising oil prices, as the price of Urals crude has surged to $110.73 per barrel[19] - Canada is projected to increase its oil production to about 5.3 million barrels per day by 2025, with exports to non-US countries rising by 136.6%[21] - Israel, as a net exporter of natural gas, may strengthen its regional influence amidst the conflict, benefiting from a shift in geopolitical dynamics[29] Group 3: Market Impact - Short-term market dynamics will be driven by supply constraints and risk premiums, with a focus on resource-related assets and transportation sectors[45] - The conflict is expected to reshape global oil supply chains, with Asian refineries experiencing production cuts and increased demand for non-Middle Eastern oil sources[36] - Long-term, the emphasis will shift towards "security deficits," with countries prioritizing energy, food, and supply chain security in their strategic planning[4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For steel, the market sentiment has cooled, and there is an opportunity to go long on the basis of hot-rolled coils. The supply and demand pattern is still good, but the cost support logic has loosened, and a sideways trading strategy is recommended. Consider basis trading or cash-and-carry arbitrage, with hot-rolled coils being the optimal choice [1]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the market is experiencing repeated sentiment and increased price volatility. The cost is supported by coal and manganese ore, but the demand from steel mills recovers slowly, and supply pressure is emerging. The market is in a range-bound state [2][4]. - For coking coal and coke, the situation remains volatile, and risk control is the main focus. The first price increase for spot goods may be postponed to the end of the month. The futures market is dominated by the Middle East situation, and the price may rise or fall depending on the development of the situation. The 05 contract is weaker than the 09 contract [4]. - For iron ore, the price is mainly trading in a high-range. Due to the undetermined negotiation between CITIC Metal and BHP, the price is unlikely to decline significantly in the short term, nor is it likely to break through upward. It is recommended to trade within the range rather than chasing high or shorting [5]. Summary by Content Steel - On March 26, the closing prices of far - month contracts such as RB2610, JM2609, etc., and near - month contracts like RB2605, JM2605, etc., showed different price changes. For example, the far - month RB2610 closed at 3313.00 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 9.00 yuan and a decline rate of - 0.28%. The near - month RB2605 closed at 3128.00 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 14.00 yuan and a decline rate of - 1.13%. The spot prices of Tianjin, Guangzhou, Tangshan, and Shanghai also had corresponding changes [1]. - The market sentiment has cooled, the production and sales data improved marginally on Thursday, and the supply - demand pattern is still good. The peak of plate demand has been reached, while the building materials still have room to grow, with the expected peak in April. Due to geopolitical issues, the cost support logic has loosened, and a sideways trading strategy is recommended. Consider basis trading or cash - and - carry arbitrage, with hot - rolled coils being the optimal choice [1]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Although the impact of geopolitical conflicts on ferrous alloys is mainly through sentiment, coal price increases may support costs. The power cost accounts for a relatively high proportion, and the supply of manganese ore is affected by the typhoon in Australia. The demand from steel mills recovers slowly, and new production capacity in the north is being put into operation, increasing supply pressure. The futures market is strong due to sentiment, but the spot market lags behind, and the basis weakens. The market is in a range - bound state [2][4]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, the first price increase may be postponed to the end of the month, but the market atmosphere is still positive. The prices of coking coal in auctions are rising, and the prices of port - traded coke and coking coal index have increased. The downstream market is reluctant to accept high - priced Mongolian coal, and the trading atmosphere is cold. On the futures side, the Middle East situation dominates the market. The oil price is in an unstable state, and there are two possible trends, which will directly affect the price of coking coal. The 05 contract is weaker than the 09 contract, mainly due to the delivery logic [4]. Iron Ore - This week, the iron ore price is trading in a high - range. Due to the undetermined negotiation between CITIC Metal and BHP, the price is unlikely to decline significantly in the short term, nor is it likely to break through upward because of the high port inventory and oversupply. The change of BHP's CEO may affect the negotiation. It is not recommended to chase long positions on the futures market. The price is likely to trade in a high - range, and it is recommended to trade within the range [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report states that geopolitical and raw material factors are the main reasons, and there is unlikely to be a trend - based market for steel products [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Situation - **Price and Basis**: The report presents season - based price charts of Shanghai 20mm threaded steel and 4.75mm hot - rolled coil, as well as basis season charts of threaded steel 05 contract and hot - rolled coil 05 contract in Shanghai [6][8]. - **Production**: It shows monthly production data of pig iron and crude steel from the National Bureau of Statistics, daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills, and capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric arc furnaces [20][27]. - **Import and Export**: There are charts of steel and billet import quantities, as well as monthly export values of steel and billet [29][59]. - **Demand and Inventory**: It includes weekly apparent demand and lunar total inventory charts of five major steel products, threaded steel, and hot - rolled coil, as well as the inventory of billets in the Tangshan area [37][42][41][56]. 3.2 April Market Outlook - **Profit**: The report provides charts of cash profits of East China electric furnaces (flat - rate electricity) and North China threaded steel long - process, as well as weekly production charts of threaded steel and hot - rolled coil [67][71]. - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: It shows data on new social financing scale, new RMB loans, cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment, land transaction area of 100 large and medium - sized cities, and other economic indicators [73][76]. - **Real Estate Indicators**: There are charts of year - on - year growth rate of monthly sales area of commercial housing, year - on - year growth rate of new housing starts, year - on - year growth rate of housing completion area, and year - on - year growth rate of real estate development funds [79][85]. - **Infrastructure Indicators**: It presents data on the issuance amount of local government special bonds, loan demand index for infrastructure, cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure fixed - asset investment, and month - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment [103][106]. - **Manufacturing Indicators**: The report includes charts of various sub - items of PMI, manufacturing PMI, cumulative year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits, and month - on - year growth rate of industrial added value [118][120]. - **Industry - Specific Production**: It shows monthly production data of Chinese automobiles, year - on - year growth rate of civil steel ship production, monthly production of Chinese excavators, and monthly production of Chinese metal containers [130][136].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic polyethylene spot price increased overall, with a weekly fluctuation range of 274 - 408 yuan/ton. Due to frequent switching of news and the tense Middle - East situation, the price is in a high - level oscillation. The core contradiction lies in the game between "cost support brought by geopolitics" and "weak spot demand and inventory pressure". In the short term, the plastic futures are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly strong trend, but the amplitude will still be large. The demand improvement space is limited [3][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - This week, the domestic polyethylene spot price rose overall, with a weekly fluctuation of 274 - 408 yuan/ton. The HDPE film was reported at 9186 yuan/ton, up 367 yuan/ton from last week; the LDPE film was 10984 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan/ton; the LLDPE film was 9070 yuan/ton, up 316 yuan/ton [3]. Supply - This week, the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 76.24%, a decrease of 3.83% from the previous period. The domestic polyethylene supply decreased to 63.23 tons, a decrease of 3.17 tons from the previous period, mainly due to some device overhauls and tightened raw material supply. Next period, the overall production is expected to increase as some devices plan to restart while some new devices plan to be overhauled [3]. Downstream Demand - This week, the overall downstream industry's starting rate was 39.75%, an increase of 2.16% from last week. Although the demand showed a marginal improvement, it was still at a low level. The starting rate of PE packaging film and agricultural film increased, but the demand was still restricted. The demand of the packaging industry increased slightly by 3%, while that of the home appliance industry decreased by 2%, showing obvious demand differentiation [4]. Factors Affecting the Market Positive Factors - Geopolitical situation supports costs: The Middle - East geopolitical conflict has not eased, and the confrontation between the US and Iran has led to a sharp rise in international crude oil prices, pushing up the cost curve of oil - based chemical products [5]. - Supply contraction expectation: Some domestic PE devices are under overhaul, and the supply is reduced due to production cuts in Middle - East oil fields and import obstacles, which supports the futures price [5]. - Marginal improvement in downstream demand: The starting rate of downstream industries has increased, and the replenishment willingness of downstream enterprises has risen during the decline of the futures price, which supports the price [5]. Negative Factors - Macroeconomic sentiment disturbance: The sharp rise in US bond yields has cooled the global risk appetite. The geopolitical news is full of long - short games, causing the plastic futures to fluctuate sharply and the previous gains to be partially reversed [5]. - Weak spot demand: Although the downstream starting rate has increased, the high - price raw materials have inhibited the downstream purchasing willingness, and the spot trading has been weak [5]. - Inventory pressure: The overall inventory level is moderately high, the LLDPE inventory has not shown obvious destocking, and the inventory destocking pressure still exists [5]. Market Outlook - In the short term, due to the high uncertainty of the Middle - East geopolitical situation and the continued supply contraction in China until April, the plastic futures are difficult to fall back to the pre - event level and are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly strong trend. If the Middle - East situation eases, the previous risk premium will gradually be reversed. The downstream demand is expected to improve as the industry enters the peak season, but the inhibitory effect of high - price raw materials on demand needs attention [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the precious metals market may face a "headwind" environment. Before the Middle - East geopolitical situation becomes clear, the core variables affecting the trend are still oil prices and monetary policy expectations. Prices are expected to oscillate repeatedly at high levels. It is recommended that investors wait and see in the short - term. [7] - In the long - term, the deep adjustment of precious metals prices does not mean the end of the "bull market". The long - term supporting factors (geopolitical uncertainty, huge US debt, de - dollarization, central bank gold purchases, etc.) remain strong. As factors such as geopolitical conflicts and monetary policies become clearer, the precious metals market is expected to emerge from the adjustment and return to its long - term value center. Investors are advised to seize the long - term layout opportunity during this deep adjustment. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - On March 26, 2026, London gold spot was at $4457.21 per ounce, down 2.0% from March 25; London silver spot was at $70.02 per ounce, down 4.3%. COMEX gold was at $4452.20 per ounce, down 2.1%; COMEX silver was at $70.16 per ounce, down 4.3%. AU2604 was at 992.96 yuan per gram, down 1.8%; AG2604 was at 17519.00 yuan per kilogram, down 3.6%. AU (T + D) was at 992.50 yuan per gram, down 1.8%; AG (T + D) was at 17459.00 yuan per kilogram, down 3.5%. [5] - The price differences and their changes: For example, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference on March 26 was - 0.46 yuan per gram, with a 31.4% increase from March 25. [5] 3.2 Position Data - As of March 25, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1052.42 tons, down 0.05% from March 24; the silver ETF - SLV was 15513.67372 tons, with no change. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 215961 contracts, up 0.24%; non - commercial short positions were 56092 contracts, up 7.22%; non - commercial net long positions were 159869 contracts, down 2.00%. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions were 31125 contracts, down 6.55%; non - commercial short positions were 9244 contracts, up 5.91%; non - commercial net long positions were 21881 contracts, down 10.97%. [5] 3.3 Inventory Data - On March 26, 2026, SHFE gold inventory was 106743.00 kilograms, with no change from March 25; SHFE silver inventory was 370299.00 kilograms, down 1.54%. COMEX gold inventory on March 25 was 31945633 troy ounces, down 0.22% from March 24; COMEX silver inventory was 328841370 troy ounces, down 0.79%. [5] 3.4 Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Market - On March 26, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.91, up 0.21% from March 25. The US dollar index on March 25 was 99.63, up 0.41% from March 24. The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.84%, down 1.54%; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.33%, down 1.37%. The VIX was 25.33, down 6.01%; the S&P 500 was 6591.90, up 0.54%; NYWEX crude oil was $91.29, up 3.28%. [5] 3.5 Market Review - On March 26, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.28% to 995.98 yuan per gram; the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.85% to 17472 yuan per kilogram. [5] 3.6 Impact Analysis - Contradictory news about the US - Iran negotiation filled the market. After a phased rebound and repair, the precious metals market's main line returned to the game between oil prices, inflation expectations, and monetary policies. [6] - The US is still deploying more military forces to the Middle East, and the market is worried that the US may soon escalate military actions against Iran. High oil prices have increased the market's attention to the Fed's possible interest rate hikes this year. The market currently expects the probability of the Fed's interest rate hikes this year to be around 50%. The US Treasury yields and the US dollar index have strengthened again, putting pressure on precious metals prices. [6] - The rebound and repair of precious metals prices in the past two months have reached a phased pressure level. Since there is still no clear upward driver for precious metals prices in the short - term, the bears have the upper hand in the long - short game, suppressing the prices. [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical uncertainties persist, and the supply side continues to provide support for the polyolefin market. The ongoing tensions in the Middle East have led to supply issues for olefin raw materials, causing the market to rebound. For PE, the supply is tightening due to raw material shortages and upstream maintenance, while demand is gradually releasing but with cautious buying. For PP, the supply support remains strong, and although downstream purchasing is weak, the export window has opened, and prices are strongly supported in the short term [3][4] 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Polyolefin Basis and Inter - period Structure - The L main contract closed at 8767 yuan/ton (+52), the PP main contract closed at 9120 yuan/ton (+145). The LL North China spot price was 8500 yuan/ton (+200), the LL East China spot price was 8060 yuan/ton (-540), and the PP East China spot price was 9050 yuan/ton (+150). The LL North China basis was -267 yuan/ton (+148), the LL East China basis was -707 yuan/ton (-592), and the PP East China basis was -70 yuan/ton (+5) [1] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate was 76.2% (-3.8%), PP operating rate was 70.0% (-0.5%). PE oil - based production profit was -734.1 yuan/ton (-191.4), PP oil - based production profit was -674.1 yuan/ton (-191.4), and PDH - based PP production profit was -3207.4 yuan/ton (-11.8) [1] III. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - Not elaborated in the given content IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit was -817.2 yuan/ton (-361.0), PP import profit was -1265.0 yuan/ton (-145.9), and PP export profit was 310.5 US dollars/ton (+189.9) [1] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 38.9% (+3.4%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 47.2% (+1.7%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 41.1% (+0.9%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 63.4% (+1.5%) [2] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - Not elaborated in the given content 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on LLDPE and PP for hedging; - Inter - period: None; - Cross - variety: Cautiously shrink the spread of LL05 - PP05 when it is high [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated and weakened. The import window for domestic spot refined copper remained open, but import profitability declined. The US - Iran conflict and negotiations introduced uncertainties, and the market was still pricing in the macro - environment's variability. However, the macro - suppression has weakened marginally, and fundamental support is emerging. Copper prices are expected to enter a phase of "support at the bottom, lack of upward drive" and oscillate to find the bottom. It is recommended to shift from a previously cautious and bearish strategy to range - bound operations and gradually build long positions at key support levels, while paying attention to copper prices in the range of 90,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina fluctuated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. Overseas raw material cost support has gradually weakened. After the release of domestic production increments and the upcoming arrival of a large amount of imported alumina, inventory is under pressure. The market's core contradiction has shifted from high premiums due to overseas geopolitics to the weak reality of domestic inventory accumulation and slow - starting demand, as well as the logic of upward repair of the copper - aluminum ratio. If there are no unexpected geopolitical disturbances, aluminum prices are expected to adjust weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the approaching inflection point of inventory reduction and be vigilant against new geopolitical variables [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel declined. Nickel ore prices continued to strengthen, while primary nickel faced significant inventory pressure. On the demand side, stainless - steel inventory decreased week - on - week, and the supply of MHP was disrupted. Given the current strengthening cost side, there may be short - term long - trading opportunities based on the cost line, but attention should be paid to overseas geopolitics and market sentiment. There is also an expectation for supplementary quotas in July, which will also put pressure on nickel prices [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Import window open but profitability down; US - Iran conflict and negotiations cause uncertainty; LME inventory down 350 tons to 359,825 tons, Comex inventory up 939 tons to 534,985 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts down 5,670 tons to 246,441 tons; downstream restocking willingness increased after price decline; strategy shift from cautious - bearish to range - bound operations [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina (AO2605) down 0.75% to 2,917 yuan/ton, Shanghai aluminum (AL2605) up 0.51% to 23,870 yuan/ton, aluminum alloy (AD2604) up 0.5% to 22,940 yuan/ton; overseas cost support weakens, domestic inventory pressure increases; short - term weak adjustment expected [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel down 1.04% to $17,165/ton, Shanghai nickel down 0.73% to 135,990 yuan/ton; LME inventory down 216 tons to 282,240 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts down 12 tons to 57,593 tons; nickel ore prices up, primary nickel inventory pressure; short - term long - trading opportunities based on cost line, but attention to geopolitics and sentiment [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Flat - copper price down 260 yuan/ton to 95,315 yuan/ton; LME inventory down 350 tons, Comex inventory up 939 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts down 5,670 tons; social inventory (domestic + bonded area) down 27,000 tons to 584,000 tons; active contract import profit up 603.8 yuan/ton to 727.9 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lead**: Average price of 1 lead down 50 yuan/ton to 16,400 yuan/ton; LME inventory unchanged at 283,100 tons, SHFE inventory down 9,939 tons to 66,110 tons; active contract import profit up 226 yuan/ton to 855 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum**: Wuxi aluminum price down 230 yuan/ton to 23,530 yuan/ton, Nanhai price down 270 yuan/ton to 23,440 yuan/ton; LME inventory down 3,675 tons to 423,075 tons, SHFE total inventory up 35,619 tons to 452,044 tons; social inventory of electrolytic aluminum down 2,000 tons to 1.337 million tons, alumina up 40,000 tons to 358,000 tons; active contract import loss up 392 yuan/ton to 3,911 yuan/ton [4]. - **Nickel**: Jinchuan nickel plate price up 1,050 yuan/ton to 142,050 yuan/ton; LME inventory down 216 tons to 282,240 tons, SHFE inventory down 20 tons to 63,661 tons; social inventory of nickel up 959 tons to 88,449 tons; active contract import profit up 4,051 yuan/ton to 1,471 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: Main settlement price up 0.1% to 22,985 yuan/ton; LME inventory unchanged at 115,650 tons, SHFE inventory up 793 tons to 6,268 tons; social inventory down 5,100 tons to 214,400 tons; active contract import loss up 220 yuan/ton to 2,873 yuan/ton [6]. - **Tin**: Main settlement price up 0.1% to 352,530 yuan/ton; LME inventory unchanged at 8,720 tons, SHFE inventory down 2,472 tons to 10,042 tons; active contract import loss down 10,077 yuan/ton to 16,699 yuan/ton [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [8][9][11][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [14][17][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [23][25][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [35][37][40]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 [41][43][45].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9] Core Viewpoints - Market risk sentiment has emerged, potentially reducing the demand for gold investment. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate in the near term, with the Au2606 contract likely to trade between 930 yuan/gram and 1010 yuan/gram [8] - Silver prices are also falling, similar to gold. The Ag2606 contract is expected to trade in a range of 16300 yuan/kilogram to 17300 yuan/kilogram [8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical: US President Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days to 8 pm on April 6, 2026, Eastern Time. He denied rushing to reach an agreement with Iran, stating that US military operations against Iran continue and that Iran is seeking to restart negotiations. Trump warned Iran to take the peace agreement seriously or face severe consequences [1] - Economic data: US initial jobless claims increased by 5000 to 210,000 last week, in line with market expectations. Continuing jobless claims decreased by 32,000 to 1.819 million, the lowest level in nearly two years. The OECD's latest economic outlook report predicts global economic growth of 2.9% in 2026 and a slight increase to 3% in 2027. US economic growth is expected to slow from 2% in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027, and the inflation rate this year will reach 4.2%, far higher than the Fed's expectation [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On March 26, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1014.50 yuan/gram and closed at 995.98 yuan/gram, a change of -1.77% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 991.18 yuan/gram and closed at 980.08 yuan/gram, a 1.60% decline from the afternoon close [2] - On March 26, 2026, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 18,089.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 17,472.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of -3.53% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 775,118 lots, and the open interest was 219,990 lots. In the night session, it opened at 16,938 yuan/kilogram and closed at 16,841 yuan/kilogram, a 3.61% decline from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On March 26, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.416%, a change of +0.59 BP from the previous trading day. The 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.43%, a change of +0.18 BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2606 contract, long positions decreased by 1201 lots, and short positions increased by 3863 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 438,419 lots, a change of -17.17% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2606 contract, long positions increased by 3101 lots, and short positions increased by 3055 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,206,162 lots, a change of -19.40% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,052.42 tons, a decrease of 0.57 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,409 tons, a decrease of 105 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On March 26, 2026, the domestic gold premium was 8.51 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was 189.16 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold and silver main contracts was approximately 57.00, a change of 1.82% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 62.26, a change of -1.42% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On March 26, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 85,694 kilograms, a change of 6.55% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 429,700 kilograms, a change of -5.95% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is complex and uncertain, which has a significant impact on various commodity markets. The short - term price fluctuations of many commodities are large, and the long - term trend depends on the development of the Middle East situation, especially the situation of the Strait of Hormuz [1]. - The market sentiment is highly sensitive to the information related to the US - Iran war, which affects the prices of precious metals, copper, aluminum and other commodities. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Crude Oil - Iran proposed cease - fire conditions, and Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy infrastructure by 10 days, providing a cooling - off window for the Middle East situation. However, the US is still deploying troops, and Iran continues to attack US military bases. The short - term oil price has a large two - way fluctuation risk, and the long - term trend depends on the smooth passage of the Strait of Hormuz [1]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The US - Iran negotiation has great differences, providing some support to the market. The actual passage volume in the Strait of Hormuz is extremely limited, and the supply gap in the Middle East is difficult to fill in the short term. The shortage of LNG may increase the demand for fuel oil substitution. Low - sulfur fuel oil has component support. Geopolitics will form a lower support for fuel oil [21]. Natural Gas No relevant information provided. Coal Coke - The coking profit is average, and the daily output slightly increases. The coke inventory changes little, and the purchasing intention of traders slightly improves. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream molten iron production increases significantly. The coke price is likely to rise rather than fall due to energy concerns caused by geopolitical conflicts [16]. Coking Coal - The coal mine resumes work well, and the weekly output slightly increases. The spot auction price rises, mainly due to market concerns about energy. The total inventory of coking coal slightly increases, and the production - end inventory slightly decreases. The coking coal price is likely to rise rather than fall due to energy concerns caused by geopolitical conflicts [17]. Metals Precious Metals - Overnight precious metals fell. The US - Iran war is difficult to stop in the short term, and the market sentiment fluctuates with the war information. Precious metals are under short - term pressure and wait for the further clarity of the war situation [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fell. The high oil price may have a longer - term impact, and the US stock market is under pressure. The domestic refined copper price is 95325 yuan, and the Shanghai copper discount expands. The second - quarter domestic smelter maintenance scale may increase. The SMM social inventory decreases by 4.03 tons to 42.74 tons. The copper price has strong support at 91,000 [3]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly. The spot discounts in East China, Central China and South China are 110 yuan, 160 yuan and 180 yuan respectively. The aluminum ingot social inventory increases by 1.5 tons. The short - term Shanghai aluminum fluctuates mainly [4]. - **Zinc**: The decline of Shanghai zinc at the annual line position slows down. The short - term consumption enters the peak season, and the downstream terminal orders pick up. The basic - face continuous price - cut inventory reduction may provide some support for Shanghai zinc. The macro - situation of the US - Iran conflict and the strong US dollar make the Shanghai zinc rebound under pressure, and it is expected to enter the range - bound oscillation [7]. - **Lead**: The overseas aluminum ingot inventory reduction is not smooth, and the domestic aluminum ingot is in the stage of price - cut inventory reduction. The by - product price is high, and the comprehensive cost of primary aluminum smelters is low. The regenerative aluminum profit is poor, and some smelters reduce production or postpone resumption. Shanghai lead oscillates at a low level [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel oscillates, the market trading volume declines, and the position slowly recovers. The strong US dollar exerts pressure on the market. The stainless - steel demand in the peak season is lower than expected, and the downstream only replenishes inventory on a rigid basis. The social inventory is still at a high level, and the de - stocking is slow. The steel mills maintain high production, and the supply pressure is large. Nickel and stainless steel are in a weak - oscillation state [9]. - **Tin**: Overnight tin price oscillates. The tin supply is stable, and the domestic spot tin price is basically at par with the delivery - month tin price. The war affects the global computing - power facility trading premium. The tin price may test the lower integer level [10]. Rare Earth Metals No relevant information provided. Chemicals Polycrystalline Silicon - The average price of polycrystalline silicon SMM's N - type dense material is stable at 39,000 yuan/ton. The weekly inventory slightly decreases, and the enterprise shipment increases, but it is still in the active inventory - reduction cycle, and the price bottom is not clear. The downstream component production is at a low level year - on - year, and the inventory rises. The domestic installation demand is weak, and the cancellation of export tax rebates weakens the overseas support. The component losses lead to low raw - material procurement willingness. The short - term may oscillate and adjust, and there is still downward pressure in the medium term [12]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon in East China remains stable. The supply is stable, and the demand from the polycrystalline silicon industry is weak. The industrial silicon market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the social inventory is still at a high level. It is expected that the silicon price will oscillate in the short term [13]. PVC & Caustic Soda - PVC oscillates weakly. The ethylene - method enterprises reduce the load, and the calcium - carbide - method enterprises increase the load. The overall supply fluctuates slightly. The downstream procurement is poor, and the inventory in sample warehouses in East and South China increases. The downstream start - up rate seasonally increases but is still at a low level year - on - year. The PVC export is expected to be good from March to April. Caustic soda oscillates weakly at night. The liquid - caustic soda inventory rises, and the chlor - alkali profit continues to rise. The high - concentration caustic soda has good support from export orders, and the downstream demand is stable [26]. PX & PTA - The US - Iran situation affects the oil and chemical markets, and the prices of PX and PTA oscillate and rise. The domestic PX load slightly increases, and the PTA load increases due to the restart of Yizheng. The downstream polyester slightly increases the load, and the terminal follows up slowly. The industrial chain is affected by energy, and the month - spread is under pressure [27]. Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene - glycol load slightly decreases. The port inventory increases, and the downstream recovery is slow. The global supply of ethylene glycol is expected to be tight. It is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the situation development, export performance and downstream load should be continuously monitored [28]. Short Fibre & Bottle Chip - The short - fibre load slightly decreases, and the downstream weaving load increases slowly. The market is affected by the Middle East situation and follows the raw - material price decline. The bottle - chip benefit is okay, and the load slightly decreases after a significant increase last week. The situation development and bottle - chip industry load performance should be continuously monitored [29]. Glass - Glass oscillates weakly. The industry continues to reduce inventory, but the intensity slows down. The upstream and mid - stream inventory pressure is large. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid - demand replenishment. The glass inventory pressure still exists, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in a wide range [30]. 20 - Number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber - The international crude - oil futures price rises, and the Thai raw - material market price rises. The global natural - rubber supply will enter the production - increasing period. The domestic butadiene - rubber device start - up rate decreases, and the upstream butadiene device start - up rate also decreases. The natural - rubber inventory in Qingdao increases, and the synthetic - rubber inventory decreases. Geopolitical risks exist, and the cost drives the price. The strategy is to wait and see, and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities can be grasped [31]. Soda Ash - Soda ash oscillates weakly. The industry inventory increases. The maintenance increases this week, and the start - up and weekly production decrease. The demand from the float - glass industry is stable, and the photovoltaic - glass industry has an oversupply problem and may reduce production. It follows the macro - sentiment fluctuation in the short term, and the right - side short - selling strategy can be considered in the long term after the sentiment fades [32]. Agricultural Products Soybean & Soybean Meal - The USDA will release the 2026 planting intention report. The expected US new - season soybean planting area is 85.549 million acres, higher than the previous value. The US soybean inventory is expected to be 2.063 billion bushels, a six - year high, up 8% year - on - year. The soybean/soybean meal prices need to closely monitor the US - Iran situation, energy and fertilizer markets, Trump's visit to China and climate changes [33]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The crude - oil price rises, and soybean oil and palm oil follow. The Middle East situation boosts the marginal demand for biodiesel. However, the methanol shortage may affect the Indonesian palm - oil demand. The new - season crop planting and climate models add uncertainty to the agricultural - product supply. The market is waiting for the US biodiesel policy [33]. Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market focuses on the US biodiesel policy and the Middle East geopolitical situation. The US biodiesel policy affects the Canadian rapeseed - oil demand. The Middle East situation affects the vegetable - oil sector and crop - planting intentions. The supply increase will bring pressure to the supply - demand fundamentals, and the rapeseed - oil - to - rapeseed - meal ratio may rise [34]. Soybean No. 1 - The decline of domestic soybean prices slows down. The auction of China Grain Reserves Corporation provides some support. The subsequent price depends on the Middle East situation's impact on energy prices, macro - expectations and capital trends [35]. Corn - The Dalian corn futures oscillate weakly. The domestic port and spot prices are basically stable with sporadic price cuts. The increase in the domestic reserve - wheat auction volume may impact the corn price. The northeast grain - selling progress, state - reserve auction information and futures capital trends should be followed [36]. Live Pig - The live - pig futures increase in position, and the 05 contract hits a new low. The spot price continues to fall, and the 05 contract maintains a premium. The weaned - piglet price is at the lower limit of the cost range. The industry inventory pressure needs to be reduced, and the supply - demand situation is loose this year, so the pig - price reversal is difficult in the medium term [37]. Egg - The egg futures increase in position, and the near - month contract rises, possibly due to the short - term Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking. The spot price is stable. The egg - laying hen inventory is expected to decline in the next five months, and a low - position long - position strategy is recommended [38]. Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton slightly rises, and the spot basis is stable. The downstream textile enterprises purchase at low prices. The March peak - season demand is good, and the low - inventory textile enterprises have a willingness to stock up. The domestic import quota is issued, and the domestic - foreign cotton price difference narrows. The national commercial cotton inventory is at a high level, and the mid - term Zhengzhou cotton maintains a long - position strategy [39]. Sugar - Overnight US sugar oscillates. The international market focuses on the new - season Brazilian sugar production, which is expected to decline. The domestic sugar market is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term sugar price faces pressure, but there is a possibility of a decline in Guangxi's production in the 26/27 season due to possible El Nino [40]. Apple - The apple futures price oscillates at a high level. The market focuses on the demand side. The demand in the northwest region is good, but the supply is limited. The Shandong apple quality is poor, and the price is high, so the downstream acceptance is low, and the futures price drops. It is recommended to wait and see [41]. Wood - The wood futures price oscillates. The external - market quotation rises, and the domestic spot price is relatively weak. The short - term arrival volume may be low. The downstream demand recovers, and the port delivery volume increases. The national log inventory is low, providing some support to the price. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. Pulp - The pulp futures price rebounds and then falls, and the spot price is stable. The domestic pulp port inventory is at a high level, and the overseas quotation is strong, providing some cost support. The domestic pulp demand is average, and the downstream paper price and profit are poor. The pulp is expected to oscillate in a low - level range in the short term [43]. Financial Products Stock Index - A - shares adjusted again with reduced trading volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell by more than 1%. The stock - index futures contracts all fell. The overnight overseas stock markets also fell. Trump will visit China, and the US - Iran situation is still uncertain. The medium - term allocation should consider a balanced strategy, and the broad - based index can be bought on dips in the short term [44]. Treasury Bond - The treasury - bond futures contracts all rose on March 26. The Iran - US - Israel negotiation has no significant progress. The central bank net - injected 21.1 billion yuan through reverse repurchase. The bond - market interest rate runs at a low level. The long - end bonds can be considered for rebound opportunities after over - decline [45].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - L: Neutral [2] - PP: Neutral [2] - PVC: Neutral [2] - PTA/PX: Cautiously Bullish [6] - Ethylene Glycol: Neutral with Adjustment [7] - Methanol: Cautiously Bullish [7] - Urea: Bullish [8] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [2] Core Views - The market is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the supply and demand patterns of various chemical products are changing. Some products are facing supply contractions, while others are experiencing changes in demand and cost factors [2][6][7]. - Different products show different trends, including oscillations, cautious bullishness, and bullishness, depending on their specific supply - demand fundamentals and cost - related factors [2][6][8]. Summary by Product L - **Market Performance**: L05 closed at 8,767 yuan/ton, up 0.6% from the previous day. The weighted trading volume decreased by 27.3%. The L05 basis was - 177 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was 135 yuan/ton [9][10]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply contraction intensified, with the parking ratio rising to 19%. Multiple devices are planned to be overhauled before early April. Short - term geopolitical conflicts persist, and the supply - demand pattern is gradually tightening [11]. PP - **Market Performance**: PP05 closed at 9,120 yuan/ton, up 1.6% from the previous day. The weighted trading volume decreased by 12.9%. The PP05 basis was - 102 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was 311 yuan/ton [12][13]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts continue, and supply contraction intensifies. The attack on the South Pars gas field increases the expectation of PG supply reduction, and the cost side strongly supports PP. The parking ratio reached a record high of 26%, and the supply - demand pattern is improving [14]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 5,650 yuan/ton, down 0.9% from the previous day. The weighted trading volume increased by 4.0%. The V05 basis was - 150 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was - 116 yuan/ton [16][17]. - **Basic Logic**: The start - up increased slightly, the de - stocking slope of the upper and middle reaches slowed down, and the market fluctuated widely. The raw material ethylene shortage intensifies the expectation of load reduction for ethylene - based PVC globally. High inventory and weak basis limit the upside space [18]. PTA/PX - **Market Performance**: TA05 closed at 6,070 yuan/ton. The PTA spot processing fee was 317.8 yuan/ton. The PXN was 280.3 US dollars/ton [19]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts intensify. The supply side has domestic device load reduction, and the downstream polyester start - up load increases weakly. The PX fundamentals improve. It is recommended to pay attention to geopolitical changes [6][20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term attention to callback buying opportunities; TA5 - 9 positive spread for the far - month contract with the expectation of geopolitical easing [21]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The overall start - up load of ethylene glycol was 66.45% as of March 19 [24]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts persist, and domestic and overseas devices continue to reduce loads. The downstream demand is relatively good but weaker year - on - year. The import pressure is expected to ease in March - April [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Some long positions should take profit as the geopolitical game enters a critical week [25]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The methanol主力 is at a near - one - year high, with a back structure, and the basis and monthly spread are weakening [28]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical games dominate the market trend, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. The domestic methanol load remains high, and overseas device loads are low. The import is expected to shrink in March - April. The demand side is weakly stable, and the port inventory is accelerating de - stocking [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Methanol is expected to run strongly in the short term. Pay attention to the impact of geopolitical impulses [29]. Urea - **Market Performance**: UR05 closed at 1,841 yuan/ton. The urea comprehensive profit was 188.12 yuan/ton, and the Shandong small - particle basis was 29 yuan/ton [30][32]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic and overseas price difference of urea is large, but exports are difficult to liberalize before the end of the domestic spring plowing peak. Supply has declined slightly but remains at a high level. Demand has recovered, and factory inventories are continuously de - stocking [31][32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The urea price is oscillating strongly. Wait for new demand (overseas exports) to take profit [33]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: SH05 closed at 2,509 yuan/ton. The SH05 basis was - 234 yuan/ton, and the SH59 spread was - 51 yuan/ton [34][35]. - **Basic Logic**: The factory inventory increased slightly at a high level, and the spot price remained stable. The overall chlor - alkali load in the country increased slightly to 84.6%, and it is expected to continue to increase. Pay attention to the spring overhaul progress and export order volume changes [35].