美联储会议纪要的工作人员经济展望提到，与10月份会议准备的预测相比，总体而言，到2028年，实际 GDP增速预计将略有加快，这主要反映了金融市场状况预计将提供更大的支持，以及潜在产出增长预期 有所增强。2025年之后，随着高关税带来的负面影响减弱，以及财政政策和金融市场状况继续支持支 出，预计到2028年，GDP增速将保持在潜在增长率之上。因此，预计失业率将在今年之后逐步下降，并 在2027年达到略低于工作人员估计的自然失业率的水平。总体而言，工作人员对2025年和2026年的通胀 预测略低于10月份会议上提出的预测，但对2027年和2028年的预测则与之前类似。 ...

Cutting rates in December was a close call for officials at the Federal Reserve, with some suggesting it could be "some time" before the central bank cuts rates again, according to the minutes from the central bank's December policy meeting released Tuesday. "Most participants judged that further downward adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate if inflation declined over time as expected," the minutes read. "With respect to the extent and timing of addition ...

芝加哥联储周二估计，美国12月失业率料为4.6%，与11月官方公布的失业率持平，经济学家称11月官 方数据很可能因政府停摆造成的相关技术问题而被扭曲。 责任编辑：李桐 责任编辑：李桐 芝加哥联储周二估计，美国12月失业率料为4.6%，与11月官方公布的失业率持平，经济学家称11月官 方数据很可能因政府停摆造成的相关技术问题而被扭曲。 美国劳工统计局将于1月9日公布12月官方失业率。经济学家预计失业率将小幅回落至 4.5%。 美联储本月早些时候下调了政策利率，以应对大多数决策者认为的劳动力市场趋弱的情况，联储还暗示 在新的一年里可能会暂停进一步降息，同时等待更多的经济数据。这是一个有争议的决定，三位决策者 投了反对票。这次会议的记录将于周二晚些时候公布。 芝加哥联储从公共和 民间数据中估算失业率，每月发布两次，以便让决策者更及时地了解这一关键经 济指标。最新数据反映出招聘或解雇工人的速度变化不大，因此估算出的12月失业率与劳工部公布的11 月读数完全一致。 美国劳工统计局将于1月9日公布12月官方失业率。经济学家预计失业率将小幅回落至 4.5%。 美联储本月早些时候下调了政策利率，以应对大多数决策者认为的劳动力 ...

芝加哥联邦储备银行于周二发布预估数据称，美国12月失业率为4.6%，与11月官方公布的失业率持 平。 经济学家表示，11月的官方失业率或因政府停摆相关技术性因素出现偏差。 美国劳工统计局将于1月9日发布12月官方失业率数据。 经济学家预计，该数值将小幅回落至4.5%。本月早些时候，美联储鉴于多数官员认为劳动力市场正走 弱，决定下调政策利率，同时释放信号称，明年或将暂停进一步降息，以等待更多经济数据出炉。 这一决策颇具争议，引发了三名官员的反对。本次议息会议的纪要将于周二晚些时候公布。 美国劳工统计局将于1月9日发布12月官方失业率数据。 经济学家预计，该数值将小幅回落至4.5%。本月早些时候，美联储鉴于多数官员认为劳动力市场正走 弱，决定下调政策利率，同时释放信号称，明年或将暂停进一步降息，以等待更多经济数据出炉。 这一决策颇具争议，引发了三名官员的反对。本次议息会议的纪要将于周二晚些时候公布。 责任编辑：陈钰嘉 责任编辑：陈钰嘉 芝加哥联邦储备银行于周二发布预估数据称，美国12月失业率为4.6%，与11月官方公布的失业率持 平。 经济学家表示，11月的官方失业率或因政府停摆相关技术性因素出现偏差。 ...

【文/观察者网 熊超然】据印度新德里电视台（NDTV）当地时间12月29日报道，印度政府当天晚间在 其发布的一份经济状况简报中称，按国内生产总值（GDP）计算，印度经济规模已达4.18万亿美元，超 过日本，成为全球第四大经济体，并有望在未来两年半至三年内取代德国，升至第三位；到2030年，其 GDP预计将达到7.3万亿美元。 香港《南华早报》12月30日根据印度官方发布的这份声明指出，目前仍需等待2026年发布的年度GDP最 终数据，才能得到更具官方性质的确认。事实上，国际货币基金组织（IMF）的预测是，印度的经济规 模将在2026年超越日本，届时印度经济规模将达到4.51万亿美元，而日本为4.46万亿美元。 尽管今年8月因购买俄罗斯石油，印度遭到美国加征高额关税，引发了经济担忧，但新德里方面的自我 经济评估依旧保持乐观。印度方面宣称，其经济增长动能再次超出预期，2025-26财年第二季度GDP升 至六个季度以来的最高水平，反映出印度经济在全球贸易不确定性持续之际展现出的韧性。 《南华早报》指出，但从其他衡量指标描绘的前景来看，事实并不那么乐观。 从人口规模看，印度已于2023年超过中国，成为全球人口最多的国 ...

第二个主题是特朗普试图稳定民心，向民众描绘经济回暖的前景。他在讲话中宣称"通胀已经停止"，并 承诺2026年美国经济将大幅好转，商品价格会下降，贷款利率会进一步降低，政府还将公布一项历史上 最具魄力的住房改革计划。同时，他还将经济复苏与大规模驱逐移民的政策挂钩，认为移民的撤离将为 美国人创造更多的就业和住房机会。然而，特朗普的这些言论很快引发了质疑。根据《纽约时报》记者 Katie Rogers的评论，这场讲话让事实核查员们忙得不可开交。根据12月19日美国劳工统计局的数据， 尽管通胀增长有所放缓，但美国的CPI同比增长依然达到2.7%，远没有达到"通胀停止"的标准。而特朗 普关于商品价格下跌和贷款利率降低的承诺，目前也没有任何政府文件作为佐证，更多的是一种前瞻性 的口头承诺。 哈喽，大家好！今天小墨要分析一下特朗普最近全国讲话风格的巨大变化，探讨其中的内容争议以及背 后的现实压力。 大家熟悉特朗普的人都知道，他的演讲风格向来自由奔放、充满激情。无论是竞选集 会，还是其他公开场合，他总是随性地脱稿发言，偶尔还会说出一些让人意外的话。不过，12月17日的 全国电视讲话却让人大吃一惊——这位政坛"网红"竟然做出了 ...

- 20251229 汇率高频追踪 册 >> 六 | 张菁 | 从业资格号 F3022617 | 投资咨询号 Z0013604 | | --- | --- | --- | | 程小庆 | 从业资格号 F3083989 | 投资咨询号 Z0018635 | 汇率运行核心逻辑跟踪: 伴随12月FOMS会议以及美国11月失业率数据的发布，市场对未来美国失业率非线性上升的担忧再次升温，关注重点从通胀进一步 转移到劳动力市场。但4.6%的失业率数据发布后，美债长端利率下行的阈值再次增加,美债曲线继续走陡。美元继续走弱。背后的原因一方面是由于10月 美国政府停摆，家庭调查部分存在的统计问题可能影响11月数据，二是距离触发萨姆法则虽仅有一步之遥，但市场担忧是否会重现去年年底〝触及" 萨姆 法则后失业率又回落的虚假信号。在美元走弱的大背景下，人民币持续升值至7附近。同时近期离岸人民币汇率表现强于在岸，反映出海外美元走弱，国内 资产回报吸引力提升，带动外资持续流入。同时，下半年以来市场结汇意愿增强、叠加年底季节性结汇高峰，为人民币汇率提供了友好环境。但需注意的 是,近期央行中间价持续向贬值方向引导,且短端掉期点持续抬升,人民币 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Liquidity in January 2026 - The yield of the active 10 - year Treasury bond rose 0.05bp to 1.8355% from 1.835% last Friday. The yield fluctuated during the week due to various factors such as LPR expectations, government bond issuance concerns, and policy news [1][11]. - Five factors affect the super - reserve ratio. In January 2026, foreign exchange funds are expected to decrease by about 63 billion yuan; the central bank is expected to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity through various means and there is a possibility of a reserve requirement ratio cut; fiscal deposits are expected to increase by about 62 billion yuan; M0 is expected to increase by about 78 billion yuan; and required deposit reserves are expected to increase by about 50 billion yuan. The liquidity gap is about 190 billion yuan, which can be adjusted through open - market operations and reserve requirement ratio cuts [15][16][21]. - In the bond market, institutions may pay more attention to institutional behavior. It is expected that the allocation power of banks and insurance will strengthen at the beginning of next year, and interest rates may decline [21]. 2.2 US Economic Data and Fed Policy - Spot gold prices exceeded $4,500 per ounce, and it is expected to continue to play an important role in different asset portfolios. The RMB - US dollar exchange rate once exceeded 7. The long - term RMB value is systematically undervalued, but in the medium - term, the role of macro - policies in the transition from exogenous to endogenous growth needs to be considered [22][23]. - US economic data shows that inflation pressure is easing, economic expansion momentum is weakening, the labor market is stable, and the Fed is in a "data - dependent" mode. It is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in the short term, but if economic data weakens, it may resume gradual interest rate cuts from January to April [23][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Views 3.1.1 Liquidity in January 2026 - **Weekly review**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond fluctuated during the week. The reasons included LPR non - adjustment, concerns about government bond issuance, and policy news [12]. - **Weekly thinking**: Analyze the five factors affecting the super - reserve ratio and predict the liquidity situation in January 2026. The overall liquidity gap is about 190 billion yuan, and the central bank may use various means to maintain liquidity [15][16][21]. 3.1.2 US Economic Data and Fed Policy - **Gold and exchange rate**: Gold prices are expected to continue to rise. The RMB - US dollar exchange rate is affected by fiscal deficit and fiscal monetization [22][23]. - **US economic data**: The December PMI initial values were lower than expected, the November CPI and core CPI were lower than expected, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, and the labor participation rate was stable. The Fed's policy is focused on "liquidity guarantee and prudent policy balance" [23][24][26]. 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Data Summaries 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - **Open - market operations**: From December 22 - 26, 2025, the central bank's open - market operations had a net investment of 6.52 billion yuan [38]. - **Interest rates**: Various interest rates such as money market rates, bond yields, and futures prices are presented in figures and tables, showing their trends and changes [39][40][42] 3.2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **Commodity prices**: Steel prices declined, and LME non - ferrous metal futures prices increased. The prices of other commodities such as coal, oil, and vegetables also had corresponding changes [59][61]. - **Financial market data**: Data on various financial market indicators such as stock indices, bond yields, and exchange rates in the US and other countries are presented [71][73][76] 3.3 Local Bond One - Week Review 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 6 local bonds were issued with an amount of 2.037 billion yuan, a repayment of 5.211 billion yuan, and a net financing of - 3.174 billion yuan. The bonds were mainly issued by Shenzhen, Hunan, and Inner Mongolia [85][87]. - No local special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts were issued this week. Since January 1, 2025, a total of 2.199521 trillion yuan of such bonds have been issued [90]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - The local bond stock was 54.6 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 362.073 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.66%. The top three active trading provinces were Guangdong, Xinjiang, and Jiangsu, and the top three active trading terms were 30Y, 10Y, and 15Y [101]. 3.3.3 This Month's Local Bond Issuance Plan The issuance plan of Beijing from December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026, is presented in a figure [106]. 3.4 Credit Bond Market One - Week Review 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 211 credit bonds were issued with a total issuance of 254.432 billion yuan, a total repayment of 213.649 billion yuan, and a net financing of 40.783 billion yuan, which decreased by 16.672 billion yuan compared with last week [108]. - Specifically, the net financing of urban investment bonds was - 261 million yuan, and that of industrial bonds was 4.1044 billion yuan. By bond type, short - term financing had a net financing of - 4.4152 billion yuan, medium - term notes had 8.0004 billion yuan, enterprise bonds had - 719 million yuan, corporate bonds had 1.5045 billion yuan, and private placement notes had - 292 million yuan [109][112]. 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates The actual issuance interest rates and their changes of various bond types such as short - term financing, medium - term notes, and corporate bonds are presented in a table [119]. 3.4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview The trading volume data of credit bonds in different ratings and types are presented in a table, with a total trading volume of 626.442 billion yuan [120]. 3.4.4 Yield to Maturity The yield to maturity and its changes of various bonds such as government - backed development bonds, short - term financing, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds are presented in tables [120][121][122] 3.4.5 Credit Spreads The credit spreads of short - term financing, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend, and their changes are presented in tables and figures [124][125][128] 3.4.6 Rating Spreads The rating spreads of short - term financing, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds generally widened, and their changes are presented in tables and figures [135][137][139] 3.4.7 Trading Activity The top five most actively traded bonds of each type are presented in a table, and the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds [143][144] 3.4.8 Issuer Rating Changes The issuer rating or outlook improvement information of two companies, Wenzhou Transportation Development Group Co., Ltd. and Guangxi Energy Group Co., Ltd., is presented in a table [146]

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Q3 2025 US GDP grew at an annualized rate of +4.3%, significantly exceeding Bloomberg analysts' consensus expectation of +3.3% and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate of +3.5% [1][7] - The strong consumer spending and reduced inventory drag were the main contributors to this growth, with inventory changes being the largest marginal contributor to the acceleration in GDP growth [1][7] - Despite the strong GDP data, the market's initial reaction suggested overheating, leading to a temporary cooling of interest rate cut expectations, which later reversed as asset prices adjusted [1][8] - Looking ahead, the report anticipates a significant cooling in Q4 2025 GDP growth due to government shutdown impacts, with short-term interest rate cut expectations depending on upcoming employment and inflation data [1][8] Fixed Income - The report notes that during the week of December 15-19, 2025, the yield on the 10-year government bond rose slightly from 1.8425% to 1.835% [2][9] - It emphasizes that the bond market's response to economic data has been muted, reflecting a focus on policy expectations rather than fundamental economic performance [9] - The report suggests that while there is limited immediate need for significant liquidity release through reserve requirement cuts, the possibility of easing policies in early 2026 remains [11] Industry Insights - Jiufeng Energy is focusing on expanding its commercial aerospace special gas market share through the development of its launch site and partnerships with rocket companies [19][20] - The company has completed the first phase of its Hainan commercial aerospace launch site project, with core products undergoing multiple launch validations, indicating a strong operational track record [19][20] - Jiufeng Energy's profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 1.56 billion, 1.80 billion, and 2.13 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18.0, 15.6, and 13.2 [19][20]

今日周四（12月25日）因圣诞节休市，黄金期货目前交投于1003附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂1006.24 元/克，跌幅0.63%，最高触及1014.28元/克，最低下探1003.12元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向看跌 走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 2025年，美国经济在关税上调引发通胀、消费者信心波动、就业招聘放缓及失业率上升等多重压力下仍 显韧性，实现稳定增长，与年初部分经济学家关于衰退或严重通胀的预测形成反差，但风险或延至2026 年。专家指出，今年最大惊喜是经济韧性：GDP增速创两年新高，通胀升幅低于预期，股市一度登顶历 史高位。 这种认知差距源于评估维度不同：金融市场侧重GDP、通胀率、失业率等宏观指标，消费者更关注食 品、医疗等切身成本——二者2025年均上涨。白宫称，相较拜登时期，今年通胀降温、私营就业增长、 燃料费下降、减税及数万亿投资落地，经济明显改善，并展望2026年更美好。 正当特朗普疲于应对美国民众日益加剧的负担能力担忧时，奥巴马时期的白宫经济顾问委员会主席、哈 佛大学教授杰森·福尔曼周三表达了对其处境的理解。他指出，消费者对汽油价格的下降视而不见，这 让特 ...