新华财经上海9月15日电（葛佳明） 中国外汇交易中心公布数据显示，9月12日当周三大人民币汇率指数全线下跌，CFETS人民币汇率指数报96.6，按周跌 0.17；BIS货币篮子人民币汇率指数报102.39，按周跌0.31；SDR货币篮子人民币汇率指数报91.12，按周跌0.21。 | 指数名称 | 当日指数 | | --- | --- | | CFETS人民币汇率指数 | 96.60 | | BIS货币篮子人民币汇率指数 | 102.39 | | SDR货币篮子人民币汇率指数 | 91.12 | 图片来源：中国外汇交易中心截图 上周（9月8日至12日）美元指数在低位维持窄幅波动，连续第二周录得收跌，全周累计跌0.12%，收于97.62。非美货币上周表现不一：日元跟随美元走势， 上周先涨后跌，最终小幅收跌0.17%；欧元上周继续维持在年内高位震荡，最终小幅收涨0.15%；英镑小幅收涨0.35%。 "展望未来，人民币汇率大概率延续稳健走势。"工银国际首席经济学家程实认为，一方面，我国经济结构转型持续深化，消费升级、科技创新和绿色转型不 断孕育新的增长动能，为国际收支与资本市场提供了坚实支撑；另一方面，在政策协同发 ...

随着毕业生逐步找到工作，失业率会逐步下降。 国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖15日在国新办发布会上表示，从失业率变化规律来看，每年进入7、8月份 毕业季，全国城镇调查失业率均会出现季节性上升。随着毕业生逐步找到工作，失业率会逐步下降。从 今年情况来看，8月份全国城镇调查失业率为5.3%，比上月上升0.1个百分点，主要是受学校应届毕业生 集中离校进入劳动力市场的影响。与上年相比，8月份全国城镇调查失业率与上年同期持平，表明就业 形势总体稳定。 从数据来看，劳动力主体人群失业率保持平稳。8月份，30-59岁劳动力城镇调查失业率为3.9%，与上 月和上年同期均持平，说明劳动力主体人群就业保持稳定。农民工失业率有所下降。8月份，外来农业 户籍劳动力城镇调查失业率为4.7%，比上月下降0.2个百分点，低于全国城镇调查失业率。 付凌晖表示，总的来看，面对外部环境复杂变化、国内就业总量和结构压力不减，各方面积极作为，稳 就业政策持续加力，就业形势保持总体稳定，非常不容易。下阶段，既要看到经济平稳运行、新质生产 力培育、稳就业政策显效等有利条件，也要看到部分行业和重点群体就业承压，就业难、招工难并存的 结构性矛盾仍然比较突出，要进 ...

Group 1 - The market anticipates a 95.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with a 4.5% chance of a 50 basis point cut, and no probability for maintaining or increasing rates [1] - There are two main viewpoints on why the market is optimistic about a rate cut: one suggests pressure from President Trump is a key factor, while the other argues that the Federal Reserve operates as a collective decision-making body, independent of Trump's influence [2][3] - Trump's economic policy aims to increase government spending while minimizing taxes, which necessitates lower interest rates to manage the cost of new debt issuance [4][8] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has not cut rates this year due to concerns about inflation and unemployment, but current economic conditions suggest that a rate cut is warranted [5][6] - The expected pace of rate cuts will depend on inflation trends; if inflation remains stable, the Fed may implement cuts of 50 basis points each quarter, while any signs of inflation rebound could lead to smaller cuts [7][8] - The potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair next year could shift the balance towards a more dovish stance, possibly accelerating the pace of rate cuts [8]

Core Point - The unemployment rate in Greece reached 8.6% in the second quarter of 2025, indicating a significant economic trend [1] Employment Data - The number of employed individuals in Greece is 4.3868 million, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.0% and a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [1] - The number of unemployed individuals stands at 411,700, showing a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 15.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.0% [1]

Group 1 - The upcoming FOMC meeting is surrounded by political drama, with a federal judge temporarily blocking President Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, ensuring her position for the time being [2][3] - Stephen Milan's nomination to the Federal Reserve Board is progressing rapidly, potentially filling a vacancy by January 31, 2024, which could influence future interest rate decisions [3] - The market is closely watching not only the expected 25 basis point rate cut but also who will be responsible for the economic forecasts, as this could significantly impact market expectations for 2025 [3][4] Group 2 - The temporary injunction by the judge has highlighted the ongoing struggle for the independence of the Federal Reserve, raising questions about the influence of political dynamics on monetary policy [3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has slightly decreased from 90% to 82% in the past week, reflecting market uncertainty due to the ongoing political situation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the stock market after the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate cuts is heavily dependent on whether the economy enters a recession, with the unemployment rate being a key indicator for determining the economic trajectory [1][3]. Economic Conditions - Historical data shows that in the past fifty years, there have been seven instances where the Fed resumed rate cuts after a significant pause. Out of these, four were accompanied by economic recessions, while three saw continued economic expansion, leading to vastly different stock market performances [1][7]. - In scenarios without a recession, the MSCI World Index showed average performance increases of 1%, 2%, 8%, and 17% over 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months respectively after rate cuts. In contrast, during recessionary periods, the average performance was -2%, 2%, 0%, and 6% [7][10]. Unemployment Rate - The unemployment rate is highlighted as a critical variable for distinguishing between recession and economic expansion. During recessions, the unemployment rate tends to rise for nearly a year after rate cuts, accumulating an increase of 2-3 percentage points. Conversely, in expanding economies, the unemployment rate only sees a slight increase before declining within a few quarters [3][14][17]. Market Expectations - Currently, the U.S. unemployment rate has risen to 4.3%, which is a significant factor driving market expectations for the Fed to resume rate cuts. Barclays economists predict that the Fed may lower the federal funds rate to 3.0% by the end of 2026 as the labor market slows [17]. Yield Curve and Sector Performance - The shape of the yield curve significantly influences sector performance. Historically, a flattening yield curve during bull markets is most favorable for the stock market, while cyclical sectors perform best during steepening phases in bear markets [6][20]. - In the absence of a recession, the yield curve tends to steepen moderately after rate cuts, while in recession scenarios, it initially steepens before flattening out, transitioning to a steepening phase again as the economy recovers [20][24].

Core Viewpoint - Barclays indicates that the performance of the U.S. stock market after the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate cuts will depend on whether the economy enters a recession, with the unemployment rate being a key indicator [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts and Market Performance - Historically, after the Fed has paused and then resumed rate cuts, there have been 4 instances of recession and 3 instances of continued expansion over the past 50 years, leading to significant differences in stock market performance [1] - Market expectations suggest that the Fed may restart its rate-cutting cycle next week, with approximately 6 cuts anticipated over the next 12 months [1] - In the absence of a recession, the stock market tends to rise steadily after rate cuts, reaching new highs within 6 months; conversely, during a recession, the market initially declines but rebounds over the following 12 months [1] Group 2: Unemployment Rate as an Indicator - The unemployment rate is crucial in distinguishing between recession and expansion scenarios; during a recession, the unemployment rate tends to rise for nearly a year after rate cuts, while in an expansion, it may slightly increase before declining [1] - Currently, the U.S. unemployment rate has risen to 4.3%, prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts [1] Group 3: Historical Performance Metrics - Historical data shows that in non-recessionary periods, the MSCI World Index averages gains of 1%, 2%, 8%, and 17% over 1, 3, 6, and 12 months post-rate cuts, respectively; during recessions, the averages are -2%, 2%, 0%, and 6% [1] - Cross-asset performance also varies significantly based on economic conditions [1] Group 4: Employment Market Indicators - Leading indicators in the employment market suggest that wage growth may be slowing, and indices such as the ISM Employment Index indicate a weakening in job growth, although the U.S. surprise index remains positive [1] Group 5: Activity Indicators - In non-recessionary periods, the ISM Manufacturing Index tends to improve about a quarter after rate cuts, while it continues to decline for several quarters during recessions [1] Group 6: Yield Curve and Sector Performance - The shape of the yield curve influences sector performance; prior to rate cuts, bull markets tend to steepen, while during recessions, this steepening is more pronounced [1] - In non-recessionary scenarios, the yield curve typically steepens and then flattens a few months after rate cuts; during recessions, the curve initially steepens before flattening in a bear market, with a recovery leading to a steepening again after 6 months [1] - A flattening yield curve is favorable for the stock market, with cyclical sectors performing well during bear market steepening [1] - Currently, the decline in U.S. real interest rates is pushing yields lower, benefiting short-cycle sectors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro is trading around 1.16 against the US dollar, with expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will maintain the deposit rate at 2.00% during its meeting on September 11, aligning with market expectations [1] Economic Outlook - A significant majority of economists (66 out of 69) predict that the ECB will keep the deposit rate unchanged, indicating a consensus on the current monetary policy stance [1] - Recent data shows inflation nearing the ECB's target of 2%, and the unemployment rate is at historical lows, leading to the belief that the ECB has completed its rate-cutting cycle [1] - Approximately 60% of economists (40 out of 69) forecast that the ECB will maintain interest rates for the remainder of the year [1] Economic Growth Projections - Economists project that the Eurozone economy will grow by 1.2% this year and 1.1% next year, which is consistent with the findings from the August survey [1] - There are warnings regarding potential risks in the region, including the contraction of the German economy and political instability in some Eurozone countries [1] Currency Trading Insights - The Euro to USD exchange rate is currently in a consolidation pattern below resistance levels, with a focus on the monthly opening range of 1.1586 to 1.1775 [1] - From a trading perspective, if the Euro intends to continue its upward trend, it must keep declines above 1.1497 and close above the current trading range to initiate a new major upward wave [1]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the stock market after the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate cuts is heavily dependent on whether the economy enters a recession, with the unemployment rate being a key indicator for determining the economic trajectory [1][3]. Economic Conditions and Stock Market Performance - Historical data shows that in the past fifty years, there have been seven instances where the Fed paused and then resumed rate cuts. Out of these, four were accompanied by economic recessions, while three saw continued economic expansion, leading to vastly different stock market performances [1][6]. - In scenarios without a recession, the MSCI World Index showed average performance of 1%, 2%, 8%, and 17% over 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months post-rate cut, respectively. In contrast, during recessions, the performance was -2%, 2%, 0%, and 6% [6][9]. Unemployment Rate as a Key Indicator - The unemployment rate is crucial for distinguishing between recession and economic expansion. Historical data indicates that during recessions, the unemployment rate tends to rise for nearly a year after rate cuts, accumulating an increase of 2-3 percentage points. Conversely, during economic expansions, the unemployment rate only sees a slight increase before declining within a few quarters [3][13][16]. Yield Curve and Sector Performance - The shape of the yield curve significantly influences sector performance. Historically, a flattening yield curve during bull markets is most favorable for the stock market, while cyclical sectors perform best during steepening phases in bear markets [5][19]. - If current interest rate pricing remains unchanged, a bull market flattening trend may continue to support the stock market [5][22]. Cross-Asset Performance - In non-recession scenarios, stocks typically outperform bonds, with the S&P 500 index showing a 12-month performance of 16%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains nearly flat. During recessions, bonds perform better, with Treasury yields rising by 8 percentage points, while the S&P 500 index only sees a 12% increase over 12 months [9][12]. Economic Activity Indicators - Economic activity indicators, such as the ISM manufacturing index, typically improve about a quarter after rate cuts in non-recession scenarios. However, during recessions, this index tends to decline for several quarters before bottoming out and recovering [16].

Core Insights - The unemployment rate in the Eurozone for July decreased to 6.2%, down by 0.1% from June, while the EU's unemployment rate also fell to 5.9%, a decrease of 0.1% from the previous month [1] - Year-on-year comparisons show a decline in unemployment rates, with the Eurozone down by 0.2% and the EU down by 0.1% [1] - The estimated number of unemployed individuals in the EU is slightly over 13 million, with approximately 10.8 million in the Eurozone [1] Youth Unemployment - The unemployment rate for individuals under 25 in the Eurozone and EU decreased by 0.4% in July, reaching 13.9% and 14.4% respectively [1] - The estimated number of unemployed youth in the EU is around 2.8 million, while in the Eurozone, it is approximately 2.23 million [1] Croatia's Unemployment Statistics - Croatia's unemployment rate in July was reported at 4.6%, with 81,000 unemployed individuals [1] - The youth unemployment rate in Croatia for the second quarter was 16.9%, with 20,000 unemployed youth, which decreased to an estimated 15.9% by the end of July, equating to 19,000 unemployed youth [1]