Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the real estate sector [4][88]. Core Views - The real estate sales data shows narrow fluctuations, with a trend of weakening in investment and financing recovery. The cumulative transaction volume of new residential properties in 30 cities is 24.23 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 2%. Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have varying transaction performances, with year-on-year changes of -6%, +11%, +24%, and +62% respectively [1][12]. - The report anticipates that future real estate policies will be crucial in stabilizing the market, with expectations for inventory reduction policies such as stock land repurchase and urban village renovation to be steadily advanced. The report suggests that real estate stocks still present speculative opportunities [3][88]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The sales data for new residential properties in 30 cities shows a year-on-year increase of 2%, with significant variances among major cities. The transaction volume for second-hand residential properties in 18 cities has increased by 28% year-on-year [1][19]. Market Performance - The real estate sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.9 percentage points this month, with a slight decline of 0.3% since the last strategy report. The sector ranks 7th among 31 industries [2][81]. Investment Strategy - The current real estate sales fundamentals are expected to remain stable, with a continuous upward trend since the fourth quarter of the previous year. The report recommends specific stocks, including "I Love My Home" and "Beike-W" for investment [3][88].

城市与区域治理研究院 苏志勇/文 4月16日，国家统计局发布国民经济运行情况和房地产相关数据。一季度国内生产总值同比增长5.4%，超出市场预期，国民经济实现良好开局。商品房销 售面积、商品房销售额、房地产开发到位资金等各项指标跌幅明显收窄；70个大中城市新建商品住宅和二手住宅销售价格跌幅明显收窄；一线城市新房价 格环比稳步回升，二手住宅价格环比由降转升。数据显示，房地产主要指标呈现积极变化，止跌回稳趋势明显。 2025年全国两会首次将"稳住楼市"写入政府工作报告，将"持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回稳"列为经济工作总体目标。在存量政策逐渐显效和增量政策持 续加码作用下，一季度房地产多项指标持续改善，为全面实现止跌回稳的目标奠定了良好基础。 房地产多项指标"拐头向上" 根据国家统计局数据，1~3月份，新建商品房销售面积21869万平方米，同比下降3.0%，降幅比1~2月份收窄2.1个百分点。新建商品房销售额20798亿元， 下降2.1%，降幅收窄0.5个百分点。3月末，商品房待售面积78664万平方米，比2月末减少1227万平方米。其中住宅待售面积减少1017万平方米。 价格方面，截至3月末，全国70个大中城市新房 ...

行 业 及 产 业 房地产 业 研 究 行 业 点 评 标配(维持) 证 券 研 究 报 告 马燕 15901097973 S0400524090001 mayan@cdzq.com 2025 年 04 月 17 日 房地产：政策效应初显，市场分化 延续 研报摘要： / 行 事件：2025 年 4 月 16 日，国家统计局发布 2025 年 3 月份商品住宅销售价格变动情况 统计数据，70 个大中城市中，有 24 城新建商品住宅价格环比上涨，2 月为 18 城；环 比看，上海涨幅 0.7%领跑，北广深分别跌 0.2%、跌 0.1%、涨 0.1%。 房地产与大盘对比走势： 商品住宅整体止跌回稳态势明显，一线城市复苏表现分化。在去年 9 月底"止跌回稳" 政策的利好下，房地产市场基本面持续改善，房价指标进一步改善。根据统计局数据， 3 月，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格同比下降 2.8%，降幅比上月收窄 0.2 个百分点； 环比上涨 0.1%，涨幅与上月相同。上海和深圳环比分别为 5.7%、-3.9%分别上涨 0.7% 和 0.1%，北京和广州分别下降 0.2%和 0.1%。一线城市二手住宅销售价格环比由上月 下降 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][66]. Core Viewpoints - The sales performance in March 2025 showed continued marginal improvement, with a narrowing year-on-year decline in scale [4][5]. - The decline in new housing prices has narrowed across various city tiers, with first-tier cities experiencing a positive month-on-month price change for five consecutive months [4][20]. - The decline in development investment and funds available to real estate companies has slightly widened [4][39]. - New construction and completion metrics have shown significant fluctuations, but the year-on-year decline has notably narrowed [4][47]. - The report anticipates that future real estate policies will be crucial for stabilizing the market, with potential measures such as inventory reduction policies expected to be gradually implemented [4][62]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the first three months of 2025, the total sales amount for commercial housing was 20,798 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%, while the sales area was 21,869 million square meters, down 3.0% year-on-year [3][5]. - In March alone, the sales amount was 10,539 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, and the sales area was 11,123 million square meters, down 0.9% year-on-year [5]. Investment and Financing - Real estate development investment in the first three months of 2025 was 19,904 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9%, while funds available to real estate companies were 24,729 billion yuan, down 3.7% year-on-year [3][39]. - In March, the development investment was 9,184 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.0%, and the funds available were 9,152 billion yuan, down 3.9% year-on-year [39]. Construction Metrics - The new construction area in the first three months of 2025 was 12,996 million square meters, down 24.4% year-on-year, while the completion area was 13,060 million square meters, down 14.3% year-on-year [3][47]. - In March, the new construction area was 6,382 million square meters, down 18.1% year-on-year, and the completion area was 4,296 million square meters, down 11.5% year-on-year [47]. Price Trends - The average selling price of new commercial housing in the first three months of 2025 was 9,510 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [20]. - In March, the average selling price was 9,475 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7% [20].

2025 年 04 月 15 日 宏观深度研究 宏观深度研究 最近一年走势 《政府工作报告的六大政策内涵*夏磊》—— 2025-03-06 《2 月 PMI 数据点评：PMI 出现一些积极的新变化 *夏磊》——2025-03-03 2025 年一季度，房地产市场呈现止跌回稳的积极态势。 研究所： 证券分析师： 夏磊 S0350521090004 xial@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 房地产市场止跌回稳新特征 随着政策大力支持和居民住房需求的释放，市场修复明显，房地产 市场出现新特征。 二手房成为市场回暖的主要动力 二手房交易活跃度显著高于新房，成为市场回暖的主要动力。2025 年 1-3 月，一线城市新房网签面积同比上涨 6%，北上深二手房网签 量同比上涨 45%，北上深二手房成交占比达 64%。以上海为例，3 月二手房日均成交达 947 套，较 2024 年 12 月的高点下降 1%。相 比之下，新房市场整体动能趋缓，上海 3 月新房日均成交相较 2024 年 12 月高点下降 28%。 二手房交易是居民置换链条中的重要一环，其率先回暖可带动房地 产市场整体复苏。二手房价格稳定，会改 ...

南方财经全媒体集团全国两会报道组 作 者丨周潇枭 编 辑丨陈洁 3月5日，十四届全国人大三次会议举行开幕会，国务院总理李强作政府工作报告。 政府工作报告指出，2 0 2 5年经济增长预期目标为5%左右，既是稳就业、防风险、惠民生的需 要，也有经济增长潜力和有利条件支撑，并与中长期发展目标相衔接，突出迎难而上、奋发有 为的鲜明导向。居民消费价格涨幅2%左右，目的在于通过各项政策和改革共同作用，改善供 求关系，使价格总水平处在合理区间。 政府工作报告明确，要实施更加积极的财政政策，实施适度宽松的货币政策。政府工作报告对 今年重点工作进行部署，包括大力提振消费，提高投资效益，因地制宜发展新质生产力，深入 实施科教兴国战略，推动标志性改革举措加快落地，扩大高水平对外开放，有效防范化解重点 领域风险等。 如何看待今年5%左右目标的设定？为何强调推动价格处于合理区间？如何大力提振消费？当 前应推动哪些标志性改革举措落地？如何有效地防范化解地方债务风险？带着这些问题，2 1 世纪经济报道记者专访了全国政协委员、中共中央党校（国家行政学院）教授韩保江。 《2 1世纪》： 面对外部环境的较高不确定性，今年完成5 %左右的目标是 ...

今年发展主要预期目标 国内生产总值增长 中国政府网 www.gov.cn 国务院客户端 国务院 State Council App 今年赤字率拟按 4%左右安排。 国务院 国务院客户端 中国政府网 State Council App 拟发行超长期特别国债 1.3万亿元、比上年增 加3000亿元。 拟发行特别国债5000 亿元,支持国有大型商 业银行补充资本。 国务院客户端 国务院 State Council App 拟安排地方政府专项债 券4.4万亿元、比上年 增加5000亿元,重点 用于投资建设、土地收 储和收购存量商品房、 消化地方政府拖欠企业 账款等。 国务院客户端 报告 优化和创新结构性货 币政策工具，更大力 度促进楼市股市健康 发展，加大对科技创 新、绿色发展、提振 消费以及民营、小微 企业等的支持。 中国政府网 = 国务院各户端 State Council App 安排超长期特别 国债3000亿元 支持消费品以旧 换新。 国务院客户端 国务院 中国政府网 State Council App 建立未来产业投 入增长机制,培 育生物制造、量 子科技、具身智 能、6G等未来 产业。 中国政府网 ● 国务 ...