Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Methanol Daily Report, November 12, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Zhang Mengchao [5] - Contact: zhangmengchao_qh@chinastock.com.cn [5] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: The futures market rebounded with fluctuations, closing at 2108 (+14/+0.67%) [2] - Spot Market: Various regions had different spot prices, with production areas like Inner Mongolia南线 at 1960 yuan/ton, and consumption areas like Lunan at 2120 yuan/ton [2] Group 3: Important Information - Port Inventory: As of November 12, 2025, the total methanol port inventory in China was 154.36 million tons, an increase of 5.65 million tons from the previous period. East China saw an inventory increase of 6.49 million tons, while South China had a decrease of 0.84 million tons [3] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Supply: Coal - to - methanol profit was around 320 yuan/ton, with high and stable domestic production capacity utilization and continuous ample domestic supply [4] - Import: The US dollar price dropped rapidly, the import forwardation widened. Iranian production was fully normal, non - Iranian production capacity utilization increased slightly, and the foreign market's production capacity utilization returned to a high level [4] - Demand: The MTO device production capacity utilization increased, with some MTO devices operating stably and some at partial loads [4] - Inventory: Import arrivals decreased slightly, the port inventory accumulation cycle ended, and the basis was strong; inland enterprise inventory fluctuated slightly [4] - Overall Situation: With increased international production capacity utilization, resumed imports, and ample port spot liquidity, methanol continued its downward trend, especially considering the high - inventory background [4] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Hold short positions [5] - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [6] - Options: Sell call options [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global sugar supply surplus expectation suppresses the sugar market, with India increasing sugar production and allowing exports, and ICE raw sugar under pressure. In the domestic market, Zheng sugar has limited upside potential due to factors such as old sugar inventory clearance and new sugar listing [2]. - Pulp futures are relatively strong, but the fundamental improvement is limited, and the future supply pressure in China may still be high. The upward movement and sustainability depend on the performance of the finished paper market [5]. - The demand improvement for double - offset paper is limited, and the upward driving force is weak, although there is some cost support from the pulp price increase [6]. - The cotton market, both domestically and internationally, is in a low - range fluctuation. The short - term upward potential is restricted by factors such as supply pressure and uncertain consumption recovery [8]. - For apples, the new - season initial inventory is lower year - on - year, and the futures price is expected to be oscillating strongly [9]. - The jujube market has seen a decline in the expectation of production reduction, and the futures price has fallen back. Attention should be paid to the new jujube opening price [10]. Summary According to the Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Apple 2605**: Recommend buying on dips due to lower initial inventory year - on - year; also recommend closing short positions on dips because of high futures premium. Support range is 8500 - 8600, and pressure range is 9400 - 9500 [19]. - **Jujube 2601**: Aggressive investors can short on rallies around 9500 - 10500; cautious investors can hold a short 01 and long 05 spread position [11]. - **Sugar 2601**: Recommend shorting on rallies as supply pressure increases and domestic enterprises face old sugar inventory clearance. Support range is 5380 - 5400, and pressure range is 5510 - 5540 [2][19]. - **Pulp 2601**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines as the cost of warehouse receipts increases, but the supply remains high and the fundamental improvement is limited [5][19]. - **Double - offset paper 2601**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines as there is cost support from pulp price increase, but demand suppresses the price [6][19]. - **Cotton 2601**: Reduce short positions as the increase in new cotton production is slightly lower than expected and the price range has moved up slightly [8][19]. Second Part: Market News Changes Apple Market - **Fundamental Information**: In September 2025, fresh apple exports were about 7.08 tons, up 3.50% month - on - month and down 6.32% year - on - year. As of November 5, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 698.42 tons, 14.14% lower than the same period last year. As of November 6, 2025, it was 682.74 tons, 17.05% lower than last year [20]. - **Spot Market**: In the Shandong production area, the purchase of late - maturing bagged Fuji is in the final stage, and small and medium - sized fruits have started to be shipped out. In the Shaanxi production area, the mainstream price is stable, and the cold - storage fruits have started to be packed and shipped out [20][21]. Jujube Market As of this week, the physical inventory of 36 sample points is 9541 tons, up 2.06% month - on - month and 131.35% year - on - year. The futures price has fallen, and attention should be paid to the purchasing enthusiasm and structure of buyers [22]. Sugar Market Brazil exported 4,204,999.20 tons of sugar in October 2025, a 13% year - on - year increase. India has allowed 150 tons of sugar exports in the 2025/26 season. Guangxi sugar mills are about to start crushing, but the weather may affect sugar content [2][25]. Pulp Market As of October 27, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in sample areas decreased by 1.58% month - on - month. The steam consumption of a thermal power plant in Baoding decreased, and the operating rate of household paper decreased [28]. Double - offset Paper Market In October 2025, the average theoretical gross profit margin of the double - offset paper industry was - 6.57%, down 1.38 percentage points from last month, and the decline rate narrowed month - on - month [29]. Cotton Market In September 2025, Australia's cotton exports were about 17.5 tons, down 4.4% month - on - month and 5% year - on - year. In October 2025, China's textile and clothing exports decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month. As of the end of October, the industrial and commercial cotton inventories increased [30][31][32]. Third Part: Market Review Futures Market Review - Apple 2601 closed at 9159, up 1.32% [31]. - Jujube 2601 closed at 9585, down 0.05% [31]. - Sugar 2601 closed at 5475, up 0.33% [31]. - Pulp 2511 closed at 4870, down 0.04% [31]. - Cotton 2601 closed at 13580, unchanged [31]. Spot Market Review - Apples were at 3.75 yuan per jin, unchanged month - on - month and up 0.55 yuan year - on - year [37]. - Jujubes were at 9.40 yuan per kg, down 0.10 yuan month - on - month and 5.30 yuan year - on - year [37]. - Sugar was at 5760 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan month - on - month and down 560 yuan year - on - year [37]. - Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) was at 5500 yuan, unchanged month - on - month and down 720 yuan year - on - year [37]. - Double - offset paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) was at 4450 yuan, unchanged month - on - month and down 450 yuan year - on - year [37]. - Cotton was at 14844 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan month - on - month and 494 yuan year - on - year [37]. Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific summary information provided other than figures. Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 1 - 5 spread is - 109, expected to oscillate downward, with a strategy of shorting on rallies [58]. - Jujube 9 - 1 spread is 340, expected to oscillate within a range, with a strategy of staying on the sidelines [58]. - Sugar 1 - 5 spread is 70, expected to oscillate, with a strategy of staying on the sidelines [58]. - Cotton 1 - 5 spread is 0, expected to fluctuate within a range, with a strategy of shorting on rallies [58]. Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific summary information provided other than figures. Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apples have 0 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year [85]. - Jujubes have 0 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year [85]. - Sugar has 7663 warehouse receipts, up 281 month - on - month and down 4140 year - on - year [85]. - Pulp has 223997 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month and down 157654 year - on - year [85]. - Cotton has 3294 warehouse receipts, up 281 month - on - month and up 168 year - on - year [85]. Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific summary information provided other than figures.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PX and PTA market is expected to maintain a tight - balance with PTA prices oscillating upwards, while MEG, short - fiber, and bottle - chip markets are expected to experience short - term oscillations [7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **PX**: This week, PX supply increased while demand decreased. The spot floating price showed a near - strong and far - weak pattern, and the paper - goods maintained a back structure. The naphtha cracking spread strengthened, and the profitability of long - and short - process PX devices was good. The PX operating rate recovered and remained at a high level in Asia. The trading strategy is a long - position for unilateral trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling both call and put options [7][22][26]. - **PTA**: This week, PTA's supply and demand both declined, and the social inventory continued to rise. The spot processing fee remained low. The trading strategy is a long - position for unilateral trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling both call and put options [7][30]. - **MEG**: Recently, the willingness of holders to sell increased, and the basis fluctuated within a narrow range. The supply and demand both decreased, and there was still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the future. The trading strategy is short - term oscillation for unilateral trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling out - of - the - money call options [7][43]. - **Short - fiber**: This week, short - fiber supply increased while demand remained stable. Factory sales were weak, and inventory rose. The trading strategy is short - term oscillation for unilateral trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling both call and put options [7][21]. - **Bottle - chip**: The bottle - chip operating rate weakened slightly this week, and the trading atmosphere was light. The trading strategy is short - term oscillation for unilateral trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling both call and put options [7][16]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Polyester - The polyester operating rate decreased slightly, production and sales were average, raw - material inventory decreased slightly, and processing fees fluctuated within a narrow range [10]. - The comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing increased by 2% to 88%, the comprehensive operating rate of weaving decreased by 1% to 75%, and the comprehensive operating rate of printing and dyeing decreased by 2% to 80% [12]. - The production and sales of polyester filaments were weak, the operating rate changed little, factory inventory increased, and processing fees strengthened slightly. The average inventory days of polyester filaments increased by 0.7 days to 16.5 days [14]. - The bottle - chip trading atmosphere weakened, the operating rate decreased slightly, and the demand improvement in the off - season was limited [16]. - Short - fiber supply increased while demand remained stable, factory inventory increased, and the future demand showed a seasonal decline [21]. 3.2.2 PX - The PX trading atmosphere was light this week. The December spot floating price was negotiated around +4 to +7, and the January floating price was around +2. The paper - goods monthly spread maintained a back structure [22]. - The naphtha cracking spread strengthened, and the profitability of long - and short - process PX devices was good. The average weekly spread of Asian PXN was 238 dollars/ton, and the average weekly spread of PX - MX was 110 dollars/ton [24]. - The PX operating rate recovered, and the Asian PX operating rate remained at a high level [26]. 3.2.3 PTA - Since late September, PTA's social inventory has continuously increased, and the basis and monthly spread have remained weak [28]. - PTA's supply and demand both decreased this week, and the spot processing fee remained low, with an average weekly processing fee of around 136 yuan/ton [30]. 3.2.4 MEG - Recently, the willingness of holders to sell increased, and the basis fluctuated within a narrow range [33]. - MEG's supply and demand both decreased this week, and the operating rate declined. There was still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the future [43]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 PX - **Price**: It shows the price trends of Asian PX, naphtha, and PX in the Chinese market [47]. - **Spreads and Profits**: It includes various spreads and profit indicators such as NAP Japan CFR - BLENT, PX - BLENT, PX - MX, etc. [49]. - **Disproportionation and Blending Oil Spreads and Profits**: It involves indicators such as the Asian toluene disproportionation - blending oil spread, toluene blending oil spread, and disproportionation profit [53]. - **Regional Spreads and Profits**: It shows the spreads and profits between different regions such as the United States and South Korea for toluene, xylene, and PX [56][57][59]. - **Supply and Demand**: It shows the PX operating rate and load in China and Asia [61][62]. 3.3.2 PTA - **Price**: It shows the spot prices of PTA and PX, and the spot processing fee and internal - external spread of PTA [67][68]. - **Spreads**: It includes the PTA01 basis and the PTA1 - 5 monthly spread [71]. - **Profits**: It shows the profits of PTA from crude oil, naphtha, and PX [73]. - **Supply and Demand**: It shows the PTA load index and polyester load [77]. - **Inventory**: It shows the PTA social inventory, factory inventory, and warehouse receipts [79]. 3.3.3 MEG - **Price**: It shows the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China and the prices of related raw materials [81]. - **Spreads**: It includes various spreads such as the internal - external spread of ethylene glycol, the East - South China spread, and the spot basis [83][86]. - **Profits**: It shows the profits of oil - based ethylene glycol production, MTO, and coal - based ethylene glycol production [93]. - **Supply and Demand**: It shows the ethylene glycol load index and the operating rate of synthetic - gas - based MEG [99]. 3.3.4 Polyester - **Profits**: It shows the weighted profit of polyester, the average profit of filaments, and the profits of short - fiber and bottle - chip [104]. - **Supply**: It shows the operating rates of polyester, bottle - chip, filaments, and short - fiber [106]. - **Inventory**: It shows the average inventory days of filaments, short - fiber inventory days, and the inventory days of different types of polyester filaments [109]. - **Demand**: It shows the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang printing and dyeing, weaving, and texturing, as well as the operating rate and inventory of pure - polyester yarn, and the export amount of textiles and clothing [112][117][120].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the performance of commodity futures, specifically the rise in crude oil futures and the mixed performance of gold and silver futures [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai crude oil futures contract 2512 closed up by 2.11%, reaching 468.90 RMB per barrel [1] - The night trading session saw Shanghai gold futures decrease by 0.01% while Shanghai silver futures increased by 0.74% [1]

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate. The supply is likely to increase with some refineries planning to resume production, while the demand will gradually weaken. The crude oil price is also oscillating, and the asphalt futures price is showing a weak downward trend [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 31.5% week-on-week, 3.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In November, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 454,000 tons (16.9%) month-on-month and 274,000 tons (11.0%) year-on-year [1]. - Last week, most of the downstream industries' operating rates increased, with the road asphalt operating rate rising by 1 percentage point to 34% week-on-week, slightly exceeding the same period last year, but restricted by funds and weather [1]. - In the East China region, the supply and shipments decreased significantly last week. The national shipments decreased by 6.79% to 308,800 tons week-on-week, at a neutral level [1]. - The inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline slightly, remaining at the lowest level in recent years. Some refineries such as Sinochem Quanzhou and Jincheng Petrochemical plan to resume production, which will increase asphalt production [1]. - The market has digested the news of Russian oil sanctions. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders basically met market expectations, and the relationship between the two countries has not changed fundamentally. OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. The crude oil price is oscillating [1]. - The concentrated release of long-term low-price resources from refineries has led to a significant decline in the asphalt basis in Shandong recently, which is currently at a neutral level. The spot price has continued to decline, and the asphalt futures price has shown a weak downward trend [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Today, the asphalt futures contract 2601 rose 0.56% to 3,050 yuan/ton, below the 5-day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,015 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 3,064 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 14,840 to 193,828 lots [2]. - The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,010 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract fell to -40 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, some refineries such as Sinochem Quanzhou and PetroChina Qinhuangdao stopped asphalt production. The asphalt operating rate decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 31.5% week-on-week, 3.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4]. - From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year-on-year. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate slightly rebounded compared with January - August 2025 but remained negative. The fixed - asset investment in road transportation from January to September 2025 decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, slightly rebounding from -3.3% in January - August 2025 but still in a negative growth situation. The fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to September 2025 increased by 1.1% year-on-year, continuing to decline from 2.0% in January - August 2025 [4]. - As of the week of November 7, most of the downstream industries' operating rates increased, with the road asphalt operating rate rising by 1 percentage point to 34% week-on-week, slightly exceeding the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather [1][4]. - From January to September 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, 0.1 percentage point lower than that from January to August. In September, the new social financing reached 3.53 trillion yuan, but year-on-year it was 233.5 billion yuan less due to the high base. Attention should be paid to the progress of forming physical work volume [4]. - As of the week of November 7, the inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 14.1% compared with the week of October 31, remaining at the lowest level in recent years [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel sector in the black building materials is "volatile" [1] Core Viewpoint - The supply and demand of steel coils are both weak, and the price is expected to show a volatile trend. The 3000 level of rebar still has strong resilience. It is recommended to continue holding the long positions initiated around 3000, and stop loss if it effectively breaks below 3000 [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - Rebar and hot-rolled coils closed higher on Monday and continued to rise in the night session [1] Important Information - Starting from November 10th, affected by adverse meteorological conditions, many places in Henan may experience continuous moderate pollution weather processes, and several cities have launched orange warnings for heavy pollution weather [1] - The US Trade Representative's Office announced that it will suspend the 301 investigation and restrictive measures on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries starting from November 10th [1] - Baowu Steel's ex-factory prices in December will remain the same as in November. The estimated tax-excluded base prices for December are 4535 yuan/ton for hot-rolled Q235B, 8431 yuan/ton for cold-rolled DC01, and 9147 yuan/ton for hot-dip galvanized DC51D+Z [1] - The US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill to end the government "shutdown" on November 9th, local time. The bill will provide funds for the government until January 30, 2026. The government shutdown may end before this weekend [1] - According to the data from the Passenger Car Association, the retail sales of the national passenger car market in October were 2.242 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%. From January to October, the cumulative retail sales of the national passenger car market were 19.25 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%. The retail sales of the new energy passenger car market in October were 1.282 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 7.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.3%. From January to October, the cumulative retail sales were 10.151 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 21.9% [1] Market Logic - On Monday, most steel coil prices remained flat, with a few declining, and the trading volume was average. During the macro policy vacuum period, the trend of steel coils depends on the fundamentals. Last week, the production of steel coils decreased. The rebar inventory decreased, and the de-stocking speed is expected to slow down as the peak season turns to the off-season. The hot-rolled coil inventory increased, showing poor inventory performance. The apparent demand for both rebar and hot-rolled coils decreased. The demand for rebar is expected to weaken further, while the demand for hot-rolled coils may not change much in the short term. On the supply side, some blast furnaces were shut down for maintenance last week, and the capacity utilization rate of electric arc furnaces decreased. This week, many places in Hebei lifted the emergency response for heavy pollution weather, and attention should be paid to the resumption of blast furnace production. Overall, the supply of crude steel is in a downward trend, and the demand side in the off-season is still relatively weak [1] Trading Strategy - It is recommended to continue holding the long positions of rebar initiated around 3000 and stop loss if it effectively breaks below 3000 [1]

Core Insights - The "2025 Global Futures Traders Conference and the 19th National Futures (Options) Live Trading Competition Award Ceremony" will take place on November 15 in Xi'an, emphasizing the theme "Embracing Diversity" to highlight the inclusive and multifaceted nature of the futures market [1] - The event has attracted over 1,500 participants, including traders, futures companies, spot enterprises, private equity funds, banks, brokerages, fintech service providers, and individual investors [1] - The theme "Embracing Diversity" reflects the core spirit of futures trading, encouraging effective, compliant, and stable strategies regardless of the approach, whether based on fundamental insights, quantitative models, or short-term trading [1] Event Highlights - The award ceremony will feature speeches from notable participants, including the ninth place winner of the global competition, Gu Mingzhe, and the national competition champions, Zhang Shenxiang and Xie Libo, who will share their insights and investment philosophies [2] - Two high-profile parallel forums will be held: the Professional Traders Forum and the Institutional Investors Forum, focusing on practical trading strategies and the application of derivatives from institutional and industrial perspectives [3] - The event will conclude with a follow-up activity titled "Options Winners Circle: Champion Strategy Integration Private Sharing Session," aimed at providing in-depth learning opportunities for participants interested in options trading [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the main contract for soda ash futures has seen a short-term increase of nearly 2% as of the report date [1]

Report Overview - Report Title: "Futures Varieties Weekly Report: Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil" [2] - Report Date: November 10 - 14, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report Core Views - **Soybean Meal**: The medium - term trend of soybean meal futures is in a wide - range oscillation phase. Although the optimistic Sino - US trade sentiment boosts the expected import cost, high inventory and weak demand limit the price increase space. In the short - term, the overall trend of soybean meal futures price is in an upward channel, but the capital situation has shifted from strongly bullish to strongly bearish [6][9][10]. - **Soybean Oil**: The medium - term trend of soybean oil futures is also in a wide - range oscillation phase. High oil factory inventory and weak downstream demand suppress the price, while the easing Sino - US trade relationship drives up the cost of imported soybeans, providing bottom support. In the short - term, the overall trend of soybean oil futures price is in a sideways phase, and the capital situation has shifted from relatively bullish to relatively bearish [28][31]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Medium - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. In the 44th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2534 million tons, the startup rate was 61.99%, and the soybean meal inventory was 1.153 million tons. High inventory and weak demand limit price increases, while Sino - US trade sentiment affects import costs [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Pay attention to Sino - US trade policies, South American weather, and aquaculture demand [6]. 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The overall trend of soybean meal futures price was in an upward channel, and the capital was strongly bullish. The M2601 contract was expected to continue the oscillating and strengthening pattern in the short - term, with an expected operating range of 2950 - 3100 [9]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The overall trend of soybean meal futures price is in an upward channel, but the capital is strongly bearish. The M2601 contract may be in an oscillating adjustment phase in the short - term, with an expected operating range of 2950 - 3150 [10]. 3.1.3 Relevant Data Situation - Data includes soybean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [17][20][23] Soybean Oil 3.2.1 Medium - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The soybean oil main contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. In the 44th week, the actual soybean oil output of 125 oil mills was 42,810 tons, and the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.2158 million tons. High inventory and weak demand suppress prices, while the cost of imported soybeans provides support [28]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Pay attention to Sino - US trade trends, US biodiesel progress, and South American weather [28]. 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The overall trend of soybean oil futures price was in a sideways phase, and the capital was relatively bullish. The Y2601 contract was expected to continue the range - bound pattern in the short - term [31]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The overall trend of soybean oil futures price is in a sideways phase, and the capital is relatively bearish. The Y2601 contract will maintain the range - bound pattern in the short - term [31]. 3.2.3 Relevant Data Situation - Data includes soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrival volume, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly startup rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [41][47][50]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Industrial Silicon and Lithium Carbonate Futures Weekly Report [2] - Report Period: November 10 - 14, 2025 [1] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Industrial silicon futures are currently in a wide - range operation. The 2601 contract is expected to operate between 7,500 and 10,000 [8][9]. - Trend Logic: Last week, the spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. As of November 7, the price of 421 in Xinjiang was 9,150 yuan/ton, 9,900 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 10,000 yuan/ton in Sichuan. The AI intelligent investment consultation variety diagnosis report from Great Wall Futures showed that the daily price of industrial silicon was in a sideways phase, and the main force showed a strong bearish sentiment [8]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: Industrial silicon was in a wide - range operation, with a focus on buying on dips [12]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: Industrial silicon is in a wide - range operation, with a focus on buying on dips [13]. 3. Related Data - As of April 19, 2024, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [15]. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.73%. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [19] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Lithium carbonate futures are currently in a wide - range operation. The 2601 contract is expected to operate between 68,000 and 100,000 [34][35]. - Trend Logic: Last week, the spot price of lithium carbonate declined. As of November 7, the market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,150 yuan/ton, and the market price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 78,750 yuan/ton. The AI intelligent investment consultation variety diagnosis report from Great Wall Futures showed that the daily price of lithium carbonate futures was basically in an upward channel, and the main long - position camp had a slight advantage [35]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: Lithium carbonate was in a wide - range operation, with a focus on buying on dips. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: Lithium carbonate is in a wide - range operation, with a focus on buying on dips [38]. 3. Related Data - As of April 19, 2024, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [41]. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 66.03%. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [42]