Market Overview - The A-share market continues to experience high volatility, with major indices showing mixed performance this week. The Shanghai Composite Index closed lower, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices recorded gains [1][4]. - The market appears to be entering a bottleneck phase after a sustained rally, particularly due to the significant rise in technology stocks, making further increases challenging [1][12]. Index Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index faced resistance at the 3900-point level, reaching a high of 3899.96 points before dropping to a low of 3801 points, ultimately closing at 3831.66 points, down 1.15% for the day and 1.3% for the week [4][12]. - The Shenzhen Component Index hit a new high of 13328.1 points but fell to 12915.97 points, closing at 13075.66 points, down 1.06% for the day but up 1.14% for the week [6][12]. - The ChiNext Index reached a high of 3168.68 points before closing at 3095.85 points, down 1.64% for the day but up 2.34% for the week, marking a seven-week upward trend [6][12]. Sector Analysis - The technology sector remains the primary driver of the recent market rally, with the CSI Information Technology Index rising by 2.59% and the CSI Semiconductor Index increasing by 6.48% this week [12]. - In contrast, the financial and pharmaceutical sectors, which performed well in the first half of the year, have seen declines, with the CSI Pharmaceutical Index down 1.38% and the CSI Financial Index down 3.71% this week [12]. - The banking sector has experienced a three-month decline, with the CSI Bank Index and Securities Insurance Index both down 4%, significantly impacting the performance of the Shanghai Composite Index [12]. Stock Movements - Low-priced stocks under 4 yuan have shown remarkable performance this week, with several stocks like Yongtai Energy and Shanghai Construction rising significantly, with Shanghai Construction increasing by 31.7% despite a drop on the last trading day [10][13]. - The increase in high-priced stocks has been notable, with the number of stocks priced over 100 yuan rising sharply, and the number of stocks priced over 1000 yuan doubling [13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The market may pre - price the Fed's probability of restarting interest rate cuts during the September interest rate meeting this week [2]. - The technology sector in stock index futures has regained strength, and funds are rotating among sectors [2]. - Treasury bond futures first declined and then rose, with an increasing expectation of central bank bond - buying [2]. - The Fed's decision may intensify market divergence and increase short - term volatility [2]. - The main contract of the container shipping index is weakly volatile [2]. - Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, driving up steel prices [2]. - Iron ore prices are supported by factors such as resumed shipments, increased hot metal production, and restocking demand [2]. - The prices of some energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as supply - demand patterns, production maintenance, and inventory changes [2]. - The prices of some agricultural products are influenced by factors like supply, demand, and market sentiment [2]. - Some special and new - energy commodities are affected by factors such as cost, macro - environment, and industry meetings [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - The technology mainline in stock index futures has regained strength, and funds are rotating among sectors. If volatility continues to decline, a double - buying strategy for options can be attempted [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures first declined and then rose, with an increasing expectation of central bank bond - buying. A unilateral strategy suggests investors wait and see, and pay short - term attention to changes in the capital market, the equity market, and fundamentals [2]. Precious Metals - Before the Fed's decision, the expectation of easing has been rising, and the US dollar index has fallen to the lowest point of the year. For gold, it is recommended to wait and see and then buy on dips after the decision. An option double - buying strategy at the strike price of 840 can be tried. Silver has high elasticity above $42, but volatility may rise and then fall after the decision. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on rallies [2]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The main contract is weakly volatile, and a spread arbitrage between December and October can be considered [2]. Steel and Related Products - Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, and coking coal has driven up steel prices. It is recommended to go long on steel in the short term. For iron ore, go long on the 2601 contract at dips, with a reference range of 780 - 850, and short hot - rolled coils. For coking coal, go long on the 2601 contract at dips, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300, and short coke. For coke, go long on the 2601 contract at dips, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800, and short coke [2]. Energy and Chemical Products - For crude oil, it is recommended to mainly wait and see unilaterally. For urea, wait and see unilaterally, with a short - term support level of 1630 - 1650 yuan/ton. For PX, it is expected to oscillate between 6600 - 6900 in the short term. For PTA, it is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4800 in the short term and conduct a rolling reverse spread between TA1 and TA5. For short - fiber, it has no obvious short - term driver and follows raw materials. For bottle - grade polyester chips, its demand may decline in September, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton. For ethylene glycol, wait and see unilaterally and conduct a 1 - 5 reverse spread. For caustic soda, wait and see. For PVC, wait and see. For pure benzene, it follows styrene and oil prices in the short term. For styrene, conduct a rolling low - buying strategy and pay attention to the pressure around 7200, and widen the spread between EB11 and BZ11 at a low level. For synthetic rubber, its price is expected to fluctuate between 11400 - 12500. For LLDPE, it will oscillate between 7150 - 7450 in the short term. For PP, it is slightly bullish. For methanol, conduct range - bound operations between 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural Products - For soybeans and related products, operate the 01 contract in the range of 3000 - 3100. For live pigs, the market is in a weakly volatile pattern. For corn, be cautious about short - selling. For palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, observe whether the main contract of palm oil can stabilize above 9500. For sugar, pay attention to the pressure level around 5700 - 5750. For cotton, wait and see unilaterally. For eggs, reduce previous short positions and control positions. For apples, the main contract runs around 8300. For red dates, pay attention to the support at 10700. For soda ash, wait and see [2]. Special and New - Energy Commodities - For glass, wait and see and pay attention to the sentiment of the spot market during the peak season. For rubber, it is in a high - level oscillation due to positive macro - sentiment. For industrial silicon, it is strongly volatile, with the main price fluctuation range expected to be between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, wait and see. For lithium carbonate, the main contract is expected to run between 70,000 - 75,000 [2].

Market Overview - On September 15, A-shares opened high but showed mixed performance, with major indices experiencing fluctuations. The new energy leaders, CATL and Sungrow, reached historical highs, propelling the ChiNext Index above 3100 points during the session. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell slightly, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices closed in the green [2]. New Energy Sector - CATL's A-shares surged over 14%, reaching a peak of 371.52 CNY per share, closing up 9.14% with a market capitalization exceeding 1.6 trillion CNY. Sungrow also hit a historical high, with shares peaking at 149.32 CNY and a trading volume of 213.62 billion CNY [3]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration recently issued a plan targeting a new energy storage capacity of over 180 GW by 2027, with an expected direct investment of approximately 250 billion CNY [3]. Gaming Sector - The gaming sector saw significant activity, with Starry Entertainment hitting a 20% limit up and Perfect World also closing strong. In Q2, gaming companies reported revenues of 28.1 billion CNY, a 22% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 4.59 billion CNY, up 97.3% year-on-year. This growth was attributed to new product launches and ongoing platform business expansion [5]. - The number of game approvals has been increasing, with 1,118 game licenses issued from January to August 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 192. August alone saw the approval of 173 game licenses, the highest monthly total since the resumption of normal approvals [5]. A-share Market Outlook - Analysts expect the A-share market to continue a slow upward trend, driven by domestic incremental capital and favorable liquidity conditions. Short-term volatility is acknowledged, but overall market resilience is noted [6]. - The technology sector remains a focal point for investment, despite potential short-term fluctuations. Analysts suggest that the current market conditions favor continued focus on high-growth sectors, particularly in technology [6].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing adjustments, while the ChiNext Index reaches a new high driven by leading stocks in the battery and energy sectors [4]. Market Performance - A total of 1,913 stocks rose while 3,371 stocks fell, indicating a predominance of declines in the market [5]. - The market's profit-making effect is concentrated in sectors driven by strong policies or events, such as gaming, battery and energy, automotive industry chain, and smart driving, while sectors like communication equipment, semiconductors, and small metals are undergoing adjustments [6]. Trading Volume and Market Sentiment - The trading volume in both markets has significantly decreased, largely due to market participants adopting a wait-and-see approach ahead of key external events like the Federal Reserve's September meeting [7]. - The market exhibits characteristics of "strong in Shenzhen, weak in Shanghai" and "growth stronger than cyclical," with funds shifting from high-performing sectors to relatively lower-performing or policy-favored sectors [7]. Fund Flow Dynamics - Institutional investors are taking profits and rotating sectors, with funds flowing out of previously high-performing technology and cyclical sectors like communication equipment and semiconductors, while flowing into automotive parts, gaming, and complete vehicles [9]. - Retail investors are following hot trends and actively participating, with significant fund inflows into the automotive industry chain and gaming sectors, while some funds are supporting high-tech and cyclical sectors that have been sold off by institutional investors [9]. Investor Sentiment - As of September 15, 28.24% of investors are increasing their positions, while 19.17% are reducing their positions, with 52.59% maintaining their current positions [14]. - The sentiment indicates a cautious approach among investors, with a notable percentage (60.90%) anticipating a market decline [16].

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Real Estate Stronger than the Market (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector has shown steady growth this week, with a cumulative increase of 5.98%. The sector's performance has lagged behind the market, indicating potential for rotation and catch-up opportunities. Key factors include ongoing policy easing in first-tier cities and a year-to-date increase of only 7.9% in real estate, significantly underperforming the CSI 300's 14.9% [3] - Concerns regarding the de-stocking rate of "good houses" have risen, necessitating further interest rate cuts and cost reductions. The supply of "good houses" remains relatively scarce due to reduced land acquisition and new construction by developers in recent years. Adjustments in second-hand housing prices are seen as a response to the de-stocking of new homes [3] - The report suggests maintaining a mid-term perspective on quality companies benefiting from industry trends, with a focus on short-term stock price realization. Recommended stocks include China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and others with stable mid-term performance [3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The real estate sector's stock performance this week outpaced the CSI 300, with a rise of 5.98% compared to 1.38% for the index. The current PE ratio for the real estate sector stands at 66.62, significantly higher than the CSI 300's 14.13, indicating a high valuation relative to historical levels [3][23] Market Monitoring - New home transactions in key cities decreased by 7.3% week-on-week, with 14,000 units sold. In contrast, second-hand home transactions increased by 8.5%, with 17,000 units sold. Year-to-date, new home transactions have dropped by 24.3% compared to the previous year [10][12] - Inventory levels remained stable, with a total of 9,129 million square meters across 16 cities and a de-stocking cycle of 21.6 months [13] Key Companies - Recommended companies include: - China Overseas Development: Strong land acquisition and sales performance, with a low valuation of 0.4 times PB and a dividend yield of 3.7% [5] - Greentown China: Recognized for quality and strong land acquisition, with a market cap of 229 billion RMB and a sales ratio of 15% [5] - China Resources Land: Stable dividend and strong operational performance, with a projected dividend yield of 4.37% [5] Policy Environment - The Ministry of Natural Resources encourages market-oriented approaches to activate idle land, indicating a supportive policy environment for the real estate sector [7]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market, after a significant rise of $14 trillion, is approaching a critical turning point with expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week [1] - The S&P 500 index has surged 32% since April, driven by expectations of multiple rate cuts by the Fed this year, with a 25 basis point cut anticipated next week [1][3] - Concerns about a potential "hard landing" for the economy have emerged, fueled by recent economic data, including a report showing the highest unemployment rate since 2021 [4] Group 2 - A structural shift in the market is occurring, with a trillion-dollar influx of funds driven by exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which is providing stable support for risk assets regardless of economic data [3][4] - ETFs have attracted over $800 billion in funds this year, with $475 billion flowing into the stock market, potentially setting a record for annual inflows exceeding $1 trillion [4][6] - The "automatic driving effect" of retirement savings being regularly invested into passive index funds is reshaping market dynamics and influencing the transmission of monetary policy [6] Group 3 - Historical data suggests that after the Fed pauses rate hikes for six months or more and then resumes cuts, the S&P 500 typically sees an average increase of 15% over the following year [3][7] - Investment strategies are being shaped by the anticipated speed and magnitude of Fed rate cuts, with cyclical sectors performing best during mild economic slowdowns and defensive sectors favored during deeper downturns [7][8] - Investors are focusing on different sectors, with some favoring small-cap stocks and others maintaining positions in leading companies like Nvidia, Amazon, and Alphabet, betting on their resilience amid economic slowdowns [8]

Industry Research - The A-share market is expected to receive multi-dimensional incremental capital support, driven by improved market profitability attracting individual investors, stable participation from industrial capital and public funds, and a potential shift of bank wealth management funds towards equity markets [4] - The performance recovery of public funds is likely to boost the issuance of equity funds [4] Company Research - Haolubo (688656.SH) is a leading company in the domestic allergy testing field, with steady revenue growth in recent years, achieving revenue of 402 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.01%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 37 million yuan [7]

Core Viewpoint - The current bull market is primarily driven by liquidity, potentially entering its mid-stage, with TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) likely becoming the main focus in this phase [4][7]. Group 1: Bull Market Types and Stages - Bull markets can be categorized into two types: fundamental-driven and liquidity-driven, with significant price increases observed since 2010 [4]. - The stages of a bull market are divided into three phases: early, mid, and late, based on the presence of significant pullbacks in the Shanghai Composite Index [4]. Group 2: Historical Sector Rotation Patterns - Historically, there is no consistent long-term leading sector in bull markets; instead, sectors exhibit phase-specific opportunities [5]. - In liquidity-driven markets, sectors such as advanced manufacturing, TMT, and finance tend to show phase-specific opportunities, while in fundamental-driven markets, consumption, cyclical, and finance sectors are more favorable [5]. Group 3: Current Investment Focus - Currently, TMT is highlighted as a key sector to watch, with potential catalysts including strong domestic substitution demand and an anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [7][8]. - If the market transitions to a fundamental-driven phase, advanced manufacturing will be a sector of interest, with real estate becoming more relevant in the later stages of the bull market [8].

Core Viewpoints - The market is currently experiencing a typical oscillation adjustment during a bull market, lacking sufficient strength to push the index significantly higher while also not having factors that would lead to a deep adjustment, resulting in a stalemate situation [3][10] - Attention should be paid to three main factors that could break this stalemate: the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the performance of the brokerage sector benefiting from policy stimuli, and changes in trading volume [3][10] A-share Market Analysis - The trading volume is a crucial indicator of market sentiment, with a sustained volume below 2 trillion indicating continued oscillation and adjustment, while a recovery above 2.5 trillion could signal renewed upward momentum [4][10] - On the trading day analyzed, the A-share market showed mixed performance with a total trading volume of 19,781 billion, and the major indices experienced slight increases [5][10] Sector Performance - The mining sector saw gains due to significant breakthroughs in oil and uranium resource exploration, supported by favorable international oil price movements [6] - The cultural media sector, including gaming and interactive short dramas, has shown strong performance, with a notable 42.75% increase in the first half of 2023, although it faced a 15.58% pullback in the third quarter [7] - The telecommunications sector, particularly 5G and 6G, is expected to benefit from advancements in technology and government support, with significant opportunities for related companies in the secondary market [8][9] Investment Strategy - A diversified strategy is recommended, focusing on high-quality companies with clear industry prospects during short-term adjustments, reducing exposure to overvalued sectors, and increasing holdings in undervalued, high-dividend assets [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the coal sector is expected to enter a new upward cycle due to the backdrop of "loose monetary policy, low interest rates, and improved risk appetite" [1] - The report highlights that the "anti-involution" policy is expected to strengthen the anticipation of capacity contraction, leading to a gradual shift towards high-quality development in the coal industry [1] - It suggests that there is a time lag between policy implementation and realization, indicating that sector rotation may be imminent [1] Group 2 - The report advises to "put down the magnifying glass" to reduce excessive focus on short-term earnings reports and instead emphasizes the importance of liquidity and sustained improvement in risk appetite driving valuation increases [1] - It points out the dual catalysts of coal valuation recovery and earnings elasticity as key investment opportunities in the upcoming coal upcycle [1]