1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Mid - term: The report believes that it is highly likely for asphalt valuation to decline in the second half of the year. The current operation rate of independent refineries is at a low level, with limited room for further decline. The return of major refinery production capacity and the seasonal off - peak valuation period will restrict the upward space of asphalt valuation (asphalt/crude oil), and the weak shock of crude oil at the cost end will also limit the upward space of asphalt's single - side price [16]. - Short - term: The weakness of asphalt has been gradually realized, and the supply - demand contradiction is relatively small in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The report presents the recent trend chart of the asphalt main contract, and analyzes the influence of supply - demand and cost factors on the price [13][14]. - **Mid - term Impact Factor Assessment**: - **Supply**: Import is expected to remain low. Major refineries are expected to resume a certain operating rate, which will restrict the upward movement of asphalt valuation. However, for the valuation to decline, local refineries need to significantly recover, and they are expected to remain relatively sluggish in the short - to - medium term [16]. - **Demand**: The demand - side operation rate has improved slightly compared with previous years, but the overall asphalt shipment volume is lower than expected. The infrastructure peak season has passed, and the overall demand is expected to be flat [16]. - **Cost**: The upward space of oil prices in the second half of the year is limited. With the gradual increase in production by OPEC, the wide - range shock center of oil prices is expected to move down slightly. Shale oil will play a bottom - supporting role, and it is difficult to have a continuous trend market [16]. - **Short - term Factor Assessment**: - **Supply**: The operating rate of heavy - traffic asphalt has started to decline, and imports are expected to remain low due to geopolitical factors in peripheral heavy - oil countries [17]. - **Demand**: The operation rates of all demand - side segments remain weak, and the weakness of waterproofing membranes exceeds expectations [17]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory shows a phenomenon of weak destocking, and social inventory fails to meet the destocking expectation. The domestic total inventory accumulates more than expected [17]. - **Cost**: The crude oil cost is expected to stop falling and stabilize, as the current oil price has entered the break - even price of some shale oil production areas in the United States. The oil price is suppressed by political expectations but supported by fundamentals [17]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price**: The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, Northeast, North China, and East China regions [20][23][24][26]. - **Basis Trend**: It presents the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions [31]. - **Term Structure**: It shows the term structure of asphalt and the price differences between different contracts [34][35]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization and Profit**: It shows the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt and the production profit of asphalt in Shandong [41]. - **Import**: It presents the import volume, import profit, and cumulative import volume from different countries of asphalt, as well as the import volume of diluted asphalt [48][50][55]. - **Valuation Ratio**: It shows the valuation ratios of fuel oil/asphalt and asphalt/Brent [59]. - **Refinery Profit**: It shows the refining profits of major refineries and Shandong local refineries, as well as the operation rate and production profit of petroleum coke [61][64][65]. 3.4 Inventory - **Domestic Inventory**: It shows the inventory trends of domestic factories, social inventory, total domestic inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [69]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the quantity of asphalt warehouse receipts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the asphalt main contract [73]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Enterprise Shipment Volume**: It shows the asphalt shipment volumes of Chinese, Shandong, East China, and North China sample enterprises [81]. - **Downstream Operation Rate**: It shows the operation rates of rubber shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes [90]. - **Highway Investment**: It shows the cumulative value of highway construction investment in China's transportation fixed - asset investment, the monthly year - on - year and monthly value of public fiscal expenditure on transportation [97]. - **Road - related Machinery**: It shows the monthly sales volumes of road rollers and excavators, the monthly operating hours of excavators, and the cumulative value of highway construction investment in China's transportation fixed - asset investment [108]. - **Related Consumption**: It shows the completion amount of fixed - asset investment and the cumulative issuance amount of special local government bonds [114]. 3.6 Related Indicators - **Position, Trading Volume, and Price Volatility**: It shows the trading volume, position, and 20 - day historical volatility of asphalt futures [120]. 3.7 Industrial Chain Structure Diagram - **Crude Oil Industrial Chain**: It briefly describes the exploration and extraction links of the crude oil industrial chain [129]. - **Asphalt Industrial Chain**: It classifies asphalt from the perspectives of production process and usage, and points out its main applications [133].

石油市场供需失衡将在2026年上半年达到峰值，随后逐步改善。供应过剩达到2.3百万桶/日的峰值后在2026年下半年降至约1百万桶/日。值得注意的是，潜 在的需求上调（最多超过0.5百万桶/日）可能显著缩小2026年下半年的过剩规模，为油价提供支撑。 瑞银认为，未来1-2年内国际油价将呈现"先抑后扬"的走势格局。 据追风交易台消息，瑞银最新发布的全球石油市场分析显示，短期内，布伦特原油价格面临下行压力，预计在55-70美元/桶区间内波动，甚至可能跌至60美 元/桶以下。然而，从2026年下半年至2027年开始，随着全球备用产能逐步收紧，油价有望获得强有力支撑并逐步回升，2027-2028年油价预计为70-75美元。 瑞银表示，油价走低主要受OPEC+增产的双重影响，瑞银预测2025年和2026年分别出现1.2百万桶/日和1.5百万桶/日的供应过剩，较此前预测的1.1百万桶/日 有所扩大。这主要由OPEC+增产驱动，2025年和2026年预计分别增加1.1百万桶/日和0.8百万桶/日。 瑞银提醒，能源板块投资者需为短期波动做好准备，石油相关企业面临1-2年的盈利压力期，但2026年下半年后有望迎来转机，全球通胀前 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the significant drop in the price of 98 octane gasoline across China, with varying prices in different regions and the implications for consumers [1][2][6]. Group 2 - Nationwide, the price of 98 octane gasoline has decreased, with specific prices listed for various regions, such as Beijing at 9.07 CNY/liter and Gansu at 8.16 CNY/liter, highlighting a clear price disparity across the country [2]. - The reasons for the price differences include transportation costs, local tax policies, and supply-demand dynamics in different regions [4]. - The decrease in gasoline prices directly benefits consumers by lowering fuel costs, with potential savings of 10 to 25 CNY for a full tank, and may also lead to reduced logistics costs, indirectly affecting the prices of goods [6][10]. - Recommendations for consumers include choosing the appropriate gasoline grade for their vehicles, with 92 octane being sufficient for many cars, and employing strategies to save on fuel costs [9][10]. - Future oil price trends are expected to remain volatile but within a controlled range, influenced by international crude prices, currency exchange rates, and geopolitical factors [13].

Report Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Fuel oil: Not clearly defined in a comparable way - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly defined in a comparable way - Asphalt: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the trading floor) [1] Core Views - The overall international oil prices declined around the National Day holiday. The subsequent market will focus on the pressure of loose supply - demand, and the strategy of combining high - level short positions in SC with out - of - the - money call options should be opportunistically and temporarily closed for profit [2] - The fuel oil market will follow the trend of crude oil. High - sulfur fuel oil will be affected by geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil will face continuous pressure from loose supply - demand [3] - The supply - demand of asphalt remains in a tight balance. With the weakening of the cost side, asphalt is expected to be under limited pressure and its crack spread has upward potential [4] - The short - term LPG is under pressure due to the lack of positive support, and attention should be paid to the improvement of combustion demand after the temperature drops [5] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - International oil prices rebounded after OPEC+ did not significantly increase production as expected. The SC11 contract dropped 1.98% on the first trading day after the holiday. US crude oil inventories increased by 3715000 barrels last week, but the relatively strong refined oil apparent demand in the past four weeks supported the oil price [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market opened lower following the cost side. High - sulfur fuel oil is relatively resistant to decline due to geopolitical risks, but may face supply pressure in the medium term. Low - sulfur fuel oil has sufficient overseas supply, weak demand, and the pressure of loose supply - demand remains unchanged [3] Asphalt - The overall commercial inventory decreased compared with that before the holiday. The planned production in October increased by 350000 tons year - on - year and decreased by 400 tons month - on - month. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the asphalt is expected to be under limited pressure [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The price of Saudi CP in October was much lower than expected, and the import cost decreased. The market sentiment is cautious, and the short - term LPG is under pressure [5]

Industry Investment Rating - The report did not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of crude oil is mainly due to concerns about supply constraints, which are boosted by the continuous attacks on Russian oil infrastructure by Ukraine and the potential additional sanctions from the EU and the US. Overall, the market is disturbed by geopolitical factors in the short - term, but there is still pressure from oversupply. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [2][34]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - Crude oil oscillated. SC2511 opened at 485 for the week, reached a high of 493, a low of 471, and closed at 491, with a weekly increase of 4.3 or 0.88% [3]. Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 OPEC: OPEC+ Keeps the Stance of Increasing Production - In August, OPEC+ crude oil production averaged 42.4 million barrels per day, an increase of 509,000 barrels per day compared to July. OPEC's crude oil production increased by 478,000 barrels per day to 27.95 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Venezuela, and Iraq increased their production, while Nigeria and Iran decreased theirs [5]. - Non - OPEC countries in the OPEC+ alliance had a production of 14.452 million barrels per day in August 2025, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 barrels per day. Considering the production increase plan in August 2025, the actual production of non - OPEC countries was lower than the target, mainly due to the shortfalls in Mexico, Azerbaijan, and Russia [5]. - OPEC+ core eight countries decided to increase production by an additional 137,000 barrels per day starting from October. The production decision for November will be made at the next meeting on October 5. The actual supply flowing into the market may be much lower than the nominal increase quota [6]. - Kuwait will increase its crude oil production to 2.559 million barrels per day starting from October. The French President's statement about the resumption of UN sanctions on Iran has raised concerns about the stability of crude oil supply [6]. 2.2 Russia: Gradually Implementing Production Cuts, Pay Attention to the Evolution of the Russia - Ukraine Conflict - Russia's crude oil production in 2024 was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). In 2025, the expected production was adjusted to 516 million tons (10.32 million barrels per day). In August 2025, Russia's crude oil production was 9.28 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 barrels per day [9]. - In August 2025, Russia's oil and oil product exports decreased by 1% to 7.26 million barrels per day, and export revenue decreased by 6% to about $13.51 billion. As of the week of September 14, Russia's daily average seaborne crude oil exports decreased by 934,000 barrels [9]. - Since August 2025, Ukraine has launched about 27 attacks on Russian refineries, reducing Russia's refining capacity by 11% - 14%. As of September 25, 21 Russian federal subjects had fuel shortages and implemented rationing. Russia will impose a partial ban on diesel exports by the end of the year and extend the current ban on gasoline exports [10]. 2.3 US: Stable Production - As of the week of September 19, 2025, US crude oil production was 13.501 million barrels per day, an increase of 19,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. As of the week of September 26, 2025, the number of active rigs was 424, an increase of 6 compared to the previous week, and the number of fracturing fleets was 179, an increase of 5 compared to the previous week [11]. - The EIA estimates that from 3Q25 to 2Q26, the average daily global oil inventory build - up will exceed 2 million barrels. It is predicted that the low oil prices at the beginning of 2026 will lead to a decrease in supply from OPEC+ and some non - OPEC producers, and inventory adjustment will occur later in 2026. The average price of Brent crude oil next year is predicted to be $51 per barrel [11]. 2.4 American Production Increase May Dominate Future Supply Increment - The IEA raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 from 2.5 million barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day and for 2026 from 1.9 million barrels per day to 2.1 million barrels per day. Non - OPEC+ producers plan to increase production by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025 and slightly more than 1 million barrels per day next year [18]. 2.5 Inventory: Stable - As of July 2025, OECD commercial inventories were 2.761 billion barrels, an increase of 2.4 million barrels compared to the previous month. Compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 66.5 million barrels [19]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the total US crude oil inventory, including strategic reserves, was 820.712 million barrels, a decrease of 380,000 barrels compared to the previous week. The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 610,000 barrels, and the gasoline inventory decreased by 1.08 million barrels [19]. 2.6 Consumption: Weakening Marginal Demand - The IEA raised the oil demand growth forecast from 680,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day and kept the average oil demand growth forecast for 2026 at 700,000 barrels per day [24]. - BP postponed the forecast of the global oil demand peak from 2025 to 2030. In the "current trajectory" scenario, global oil demand is expected to reach 103.4 million barrels per day by 2030 and drop to 83 million barrels per day by 2050 [24]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, US refinery crude oil processing volume was 16.476 million barrels per day, an increase of 52,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week, and the refinery utilization rate was 93%, a 0.3% decrease compared to the previous week [24]. 2.7 Refined Oil Processing Fee Strengthened Slightly - As of July 25, the US refined oil processing fee was $350 per ton, while the Asian refinery processing fee was $174 per ton. In the week of September 19, the average comprehensive profit of Shandong independent refineries processing imported crude oil was 186 yuan per ton, a decrease of 18 yuan per ton compared to the previous week, and the profit of major refineries was 823 yuan per ton, a decrease of 99 yuan per ton compared to the previous week [26]. 2.8 Refinery Utilization Rate at a Low Level - In July, the US refinery utilization rate was 94.42%, a month - on - month increase of 3.33%, and the European refinery utilization rate was 87.59%, a month - on - month increase of 4.46%. As of the week of September 19, 2025, the US refinery utilization rate was 93%, a 0.3% decrease compared to the previous week [28]. - As of September 25, 2025, the utilization rate of major refineries in China was 80.27%, a decrease of 1.25 percentage points compared to the previous week. As of September 24, 2025, the utilization rate of Shandong local refineries was 58.28%, a 0.45% decrease compared to the previous week [28]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The recent strengthening of crude oil is mainly due to concerns about supply constraints, which are boosted by the continuous attacks on Russian oil infrastructure by Ukraine and the potential additional sanctions from the EU and the US. Overall, the market is disturbed by geopolitical factors in the short - term, but there is still pressure from oversupply. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [2][34].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear short - term upward trend with investment opportunities [1] - Fuel Oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively clear short - term upward trend with investment opportunities [1] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively clear short - term trend with investment opportunities [1] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear short - term trend with investment opportunities [1] Core Viewpoints - The international oil price rebounded overnight. Geopolitical risks may increase in the period around National Day, with short - term upward risks remaining, but the medium - term surplus pressure means the bearish trend continues. Crude - related futures hedging short positions should be combined with call options [1] - Multiple factors such as the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the advancement of the Iranian nuclear issue have driven up oil prices and fuel oil prices. The continuous attacks on Russian refineries have affected fuel supply, and the market's expectation of a reduction in Russian fuel exports may strengthen. Low - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure from weak demand and other factors [2] - In the asphalt market, there is a pre - holiday rush for work in the north, and typhoon weather affects demand in the south. The supply pressure is weaker than expected, and the supply - demand balance continues [2] - For liquefied petroleum gas, refinery self - use has squeezed external supply, and import arrivals are affected by weather. With the coming of the gas consumption peak season, the overall consumption is expected to increase, and the market has bottomed out and rebounded [2] Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices continued to rebound, with the SC11 contract rising 0.49%. Geopolitical risks may increase around National Day, mainly in the Russia - Ukraine and Iranian nuclear issues. Without direct military conflicts, the restoration of Iranian nuclear sanctions and restricted Venezuelan exports have limited long - term impact on actual exports, but short - term fluctuations and changes in export directions may occur. If the situation in Eastern Europe further deteriorates, Russian oil and refined product exports may decrease. Trump urged Turkey to stop buying Russian oil, and Russia extended its gasoline and diesel export bans until the end of the year. Short - term upward risks remain, but the medium - term surplus pressure means the bearish trend has not ended [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Multiple international factors have driven up oil prices and fuel oil prices. The continuous attacks on Russian refineries have led to a decline in the operating rate, and Russia extended its diesel and gasoline export bans until the end of the year, intensifying the impact on refined product supply. If export restrictions expand to non - gasoline products, the market's expectation of a reduction in Russian fuel exports will strengthen, directly supporting high - sulfur fuel oil. Low - sulfur fuel oil is still under pressure from weak demand, increased overseas production, and sufficient domestic quotas [2] Asphalt - There is a pre - holiday rush for work in northern regions, and typhoon weather affects demand in southern regions. Refinery and social inventories have slightly increased. The national production plan for October is 350,000 tons more than the same period last year and 4,000 tons less than the previous month, with supply pressure weaker than expected, and the supply - demand balance continues [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Refinery self - use has squeezed external supply, resulting in a decline in commercial volume compared to last week. Typhoon weather in South China affects import arrivals, and the import volume in East China has increased but remains at a low level. Chemical demand is stable, and with the coming of the gas consumption peak season, overall consumption is expected to increase. The market has bottomed out and rebounded [2]

2025-09-26原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2511： 1.基本面：国际文传电讯社援引俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克报道，俄罗斯政府计划禁止不生产柴油的供应商 出口柴油，禁令将持续到今年年底，诺瓦克表示政府还考虑将目前的汽油出口禁令延长至今年年底； 乌方消息人士称，袭击行动导致位于俄罗斯新罗西斯克港口附近的石油装运设施以及终端设备瘫痪， 相关设施每日出口原油约200万桶；印度官员再次向特朗普政府表明，若要该国炼油商大幅削减俄罗斯 石油进口，美方需允许其从受制裁的伊朗和委内瑞拉购买原油；中性 2.基差：9月25日，阿曼原油现货价为70.83元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为69 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate within a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] Core Viewpoints - Recent oil price trends have been relatively strong, driven by news such as the受阻 restart of the Iran - Turkey pipeline and the tense geopolitical situation in Russia - Ukraine [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - On the New York Mercantile Exchange, the price of light crude oil futures for November delivery rose $1.58 to $64.99 per barrel, a 2.49% increase; the price of London Brent crude oil futures for November delivery rose $1.68 to $69.31 per barrel, a 2.48% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 1.53% at 490 yuan per barrel [1] - The EU Commission will propose a plan to increase tariffs on Russian oil imports in due course [2] - Eight international oil companies operating in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq have reached a principle agreement with the Iraqi federal and Kurdish regional governments to resume oil exports, which may restart in "the next few days" [2] - As of the week ending September 22, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 14.922 million barrels, an increase of 1.833 million barrels from the previous week. Light distillate inventory increased by 0.628 million barrels to 6.676 million barrels, medium distillate inventory decreased by 0.033 million barrels to 1.618 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventory increased by 1.238 million barrels to 6.628 million barrels [2] - Rosneft's refinery in Novokuibyshevsk suspended oil processing operations on September 20 after a drone attack [2] Investment Logic - Recent oil price trends are relatively strong, driven by news such as the uncertain restart of the Iran - Turkey pipeline and the tense Russia - Ukraine situation. Trump's attitude towards the Russia - Ukraine conflict is still wavering, and there is no clear path to ease the conflict [2] Strategy - Oil prices will fluctuate within a range in the short term and bearish allocation in the medium term [3] Risks - Downside risks: The US relaxes sanctions on Russian oil, and macro black swan events occur - Upside risks: The US tightens sanctions on Russian oil, and Middle East conflicts lead to large - scale supply disruptions [3]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: September 25, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: WTI opened at $62.33, closed at $63.65, with a high of $63.89, a low of $61.85, a gain of 2.2%, and a trading volume of 25.08 million lots; Brent opened at $65.99, closed at $67.17, with a high of $67.42, a low of $65.49, a gain of 1.82%, and a trading volume of 34.44 million lots; SC opened at 479.2 yuan/barrel, closed at 482.3 yuan/barrel, with a high of 485.3 yuan/barrel, a low of 478.5 yuan/barrel, a gain of 1.47%, and a trading volume of 9.07 million lots [6] - Reasons for Rebound: API data showed a decrease of 3.82 million barrels in US crude oil inventories and a decrease of 1.046 million barrels in gasoline inventories in the week ending September 19, and Russia considered banning diesel exports [6] - Market Analysis: US crude oil exports increased significantly, leading to a large reduction in inventories, but weekly exports fluctuated greatly; refinery crude inputs began to decline, and refineries will enter the maintenance season, with a phased decline in demand; distillate inventories have been increasing since July, with a faster growth rate than in previous years, and diesel consumption is weak; EIA and IEA raised global crude oil supply expectations in their monthly reports, and the expected inventory accumulation rate has accelerated [7] - Operation Suggestions: Adopt a short - selling strategy and short on rallies [7] Group 3: Industry News - Iraq: The agreement to resume Kurdish oil supply is in its final stage [8] - Trump: If Russia is unwilling to reach an agreement, impose tariffs, and Europe must stop buying Russian oil [8] - Russia: May extend the gasoline export ban and is discussing the possibility of a diesel export ban [8] - Chevron: Its oil exports in Venezuela have been halved due to new regulations restricting cash payments [8] - Kremlin: Trump is trying to force the world to buy US oil and gas at a higher price [8] Group 4: Data Overview - Data Sources: Bloomberg, EIA, and Wind [11][12][16] - Data Charts: Include charts on US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [12][13][21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a negative view on PX, PTA, and PR, with a view score of -1 for each [3]. 2. Core View - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will operate weakly [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On September 22, 2025, the prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, naphtha, xylene, and PX all declined. For example, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $62.28 per barrel, down 0.64% from the previous value [1]. - **PTA**: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE TA's main and near - month contracts, as well as the domestic and index prices of PTA, decreased. The CCFEI price index of PTA's outer - plate dropped 1.29% to $610 per ton on September 19 [1]. - **PX**: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE PX's main and near - month contracts mostly declined, while the domestic spot price of PX remained unchanged. The PXN and PX - MX spreads also decreased [1]. - **PR**: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE PR's main and near - month contracts declined. The market prices of polyester bottle - chips in the East China and South China markets decreased [1]. - **Downstream**: The CCFEI price indices of various polyester products such as polyester DTY, POY, FDY, short - fiber, and slices all declined [2]. Spread and Basis - The near - far month spread of PTA increased by 2 yuan/ton to - 34 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 22 yuan/ton to - 71 yuan/ton. The basis of PX increased by 2 yuan/ton to - 17 yuan/ton. The basis of PR in the East China market decreased by 14 yuan/ton to - 16 yuan/ton, and in the South China market increased by 6 yuan/ton to 84 yuan/ton [1]. Operating Rate and Sales Rate - The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain remained unchanged at 85.57%. The PTA factory's load rate decreased by 1.43 percentage points to 76.82%, while the polyester factory, bottle - chip factory, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load rates remained unchanged. The sales rate of polyester filament increased by 14.44 percentage points to 57.68%, the sales rate of polyester short - fiber decreased by 2.28 percentage points to 48.81%, and the sales rate of polyester slices increased by 11.62 percentage points to 64.30% [1]. Device Information - A 700,000 - ton PX device in the Northeast has been under maintenance since September 18, with an expected maintenance period of about 45 days [2]. Important News and Logic - **PX**: Trump called on European countries to stop buying Russian oil, but without new positive news, oil prices were weak. The cost of PX was weak due to the weak oil market, and the de - stocking prospect was not as expected, with a bearish sentiment in the market. The increase in PX supply and the decrease in demand affected the supply - demand situation and market sentiment, and short - term benefits would be under pressure [2]. - **PTA**: The cost support was insufficient as crude oil did not recover the previous day's decline. PTA supply was sufficient, and the downstream polyester filament sales were average. The market confidence was insufficient, and the inventory removal of the industrial chain was not smooth [2]. - **PR**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang market decreased. The prices of polyester raw materials PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated weakly. The supply of bottle - chips was sufficient, and the downstream terminal had a certain demand for replenishment [2].