Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up 0.65% at 42,322.75 points and the S&P 500 up 0.41% at 5,916.93 points, while the Nasdaq fell 0.18% to 19,112.32 points [1] - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Amazon and Meta down over 2%, Tesla down over 1%, and slight declines in Apple, Nvidia, and Google; Netflix rose over 2%, while Microsoft and Intel saw minor increases [1] - Popular Chinese concept stocks mostly fell, with Up Fintech down over 8%, Alibaba and WeRide down over 7%, and Futu Holdings down over 5%; JD.com, Baidu, and NIO also saw declines of over 3% [1] European Market - European stock indices closed higher across the board, with Germany's DAX up 0.72% at 23,695.59 points, France's CAC40 up 0.21% at 7,853.47 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.57% at 8,633.75 points [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.74% at $3,243.90 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 1.07% at $32.79 per ounce [1] - International oil prices fell significantly, with the main U.S. oil contract down 2.31% at $61.69 per barrel and Brent crude down 2.22% at $64.62 per barrel [1] Currency and Bond Markets - The U.S. dollar index fell 0.24% to 100.83, while the offshore RMB appreciated by 69 basis points against the dollar to 7.2045 [1] - U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down 7.95 basis points to 3.963%, the 3-year yield down 9.23 basis points to 3.951%, the 5-year yield down 10.6 basis points to 4.056%, the 10-year yield down 10.08 basis points to 4.434%, and the 30-year yield down 8.09 basis points to 4.89% [1] - European bond yields also declined, with the UK 10-year yield down 5.2 basis points to 4.658%, France's 10-year yield down 8.5 basis points to 3.291%, Germany's 10-year yield down 7.7 basis points to 2.619%, Italy's 10-year yield down 8.4 basis points to 3.624%, and Spain's 10-year yield down 8.2 basis points to 3.233% [1]

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 15 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 数据来源：wind,建信期货研究发展部 API 数据显示，美国原油库存增长 428 万桶，但成品油库存回落明显，叠加 宏观预 ...

请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1： | | 行情回顾(美元/桶) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SC：元/桶 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌幅% | 成交量（万手） | | WTI | 主力 | 60.97 | 61.53 | 63.13 | 60.56 | 1.57 | 22.33 | | Brent | 主力 | 64.05 | 64.99 | 66.40 | 63.88 | 1.69 | 41.80 | | SC | 主力（元/桶） | 489.3 | 479.5 | 489.9 | 477.1 | 1.08 | 7.7 | 行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 14 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@c ...

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On May 12, 2025, the settlement price of the June 2025 West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $61.95 per barrel, up $0.93 or 1.52% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.02 - $63.61. The settlement price of the July 2025 Brent crude oil futures on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $64.96 per barrel, up $1.05 or 1.64% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.88 - $66.4 [1] - The Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks have made substantial progress, significantly reducing bilateral tariff levels. The US has cancelled 91% of the additional tariffs, and China has correspondingly cancelled 91% of the counter - tariffs. The US has suspended the implementation of 24% "reciprocal tariffs", and China has also correspondingly suspended the implementation of 24% counter - tariffs [2] - Attention is paid to the progress of the US - Iran nuclear negotiations. Iranian sanctions may ease, and oil exports will increase. Hamas has stated its readiness to participate in negotiations for a comprehensive and sustainable cease - fire agreement. There is also a possibility of further progress in the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiations, weakening the impact of geopolitical risks on oil prices [3] - Affected by the optimistic outlook of trade negotiations and the expected shortage of heavy crude oil supply resources, oil prices are running strongly. Currently, oil prices have formed a double bottom, attracting some buying sentiment. However, the continuous upward space for oil prices is limited, mainly due to OPEC+ production increases and Trump's low - oil - price policy. In the second quarter, oil prices will still fluctuate greatly, mainly due to the uncertain policy adjustments of the Trump administration. Near the summer peak oil consumption season, considering factors such as the sluggish economic recovery outlook and the substitution of new energy, oil prices still have room to decline [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - On May 12, 2025, WTI June 2025 futures settled at $61.95/barrel, up 1.52%, trading between $61.02 - $63.61. Brent July 2025 futures settled at $64.96/barrel, up 1.64%, trading between $63.88 - $66.4 [1] Trade Negotiations - Sino - US trade talks made progress, with both sides cancelling 91% of relevant tariffs and suspending 24% of tariffs [2] Geopolitical Situation - Iran sanctions may ease, increasing oil exports. Hamas is ready for cease - fire talks, and there's potential progress in Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiations, weakening geopolitical impact on oil prices [3] Future Outlook - Oil prices are strong due to trade optimism and supply concerns but have limited upward space due to OPEC+ output and Trump's policy. Second - quarter prices will be volatile, and there's a risk of decline near summer [4]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley predicts gold prices may reach $6,000 per ounce by 2029, up from approximately $3,300, driven by U.S. policies and limited supply [1] - Hedge funds have increased bullish bets on Chinese stocks due to optimistic sentiment surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations, particularly among U.S. hedge funds [1] - Goldman Sachs expects Germany's defense spending to rise from 2.1% of GDP in 2024 to 3% by 2027, benefiting the defense industry significantly [2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs warns that if interest rate cuts do not materialize, short-term U.S. Treasury yields may face upward pressure due to a lack of supporting economic data [3] - Bank of America reports that global investors are reducing their exposure to the U.S. dollar, driven by concerns over the U.S. fiscal outlook [5] - BlackRock notes that recent U.S.-China trade talks have yielded significant progress, which is expected to boost confidence in Chinese markets [4] Group 3 - Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce indicates that tariffs may initially raise U.S. inflation before negatively impacting economic growth, potentially delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts [6] - Capital Economics predicts that OPEC+'s strategic shift will continue to exert downward pressure on oil prices until the end of 2026 [8] - BMO Capital Markets highlights an increased likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of Canada in June due to disappointing employment data [9] Group 4 - CITIC Securities suggests that strengthened export controls on strategic metals may lead to a revaluation of these assets, with prices expected to rise [7] - CITIC Securities also notes a recovery in risk appetite, with a focus on high-growth sectors and new themes following the release of Q1 reports [8] - Huatai Securities emphasizes the importance of implementing monetary policies introduced in May, while considering both domestic and U.S. economic factors [9] Group 5 - Huatai Securities is optimistic about the passenger vehicle sector maintaining high growth in Q2, driven by demand from trade-in policies and consumer incentives [10] - Huatai Securities anticipates a structural recovery in the home appliance sector in Q2, supported by domestic demand and export recovery [12] - China Galaxy Securities recommends focusing on "technology narrative" opportunities in the A-share market, alongside stable dividend-paying sectors [13]

中美经贸会谈提振油价，高盛预测OPEC+或暂停增产，油价将何去何从？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, oil prices rebounded slightly. With the conclusion of the UK-US trade agreement, the pessimistic expectations caused by previous tariffs have eased, but the Sino-US tariff negotiations are still unclear. Geopolitically, the fourth round of nuclear negotiations between Iran and the US began in Oman. Fundamentally, global oil products are seasonally accumulating inventory, US commercial crude oil inventories are lower than in previous years, and the number of US shale oil drilling rigs has declined rapidly after the oil price drop. Recently, the BW spread has narrowed. Global refinery profits are recovering, but actual refineries are still in the maintenance period. US refinery operating rates have recovered first, and the inventory of US gasoline and diesel is still low. Coupled with the elimination of refining capacity limiting supply, there is support for gasoline and diesel cracking. It is expected to maintain a pattern of strong gasoline and weak diesel in the near future. Domestic refinery operating rates have slightly declined, gasoline and diesel inventories have significantly decreased, and refinery profits have improved. In the short term, the rebound in refinery profits, the expected increase in refinery operating rates, the marginal improvement of macro sentiment, and the decline in US production leading indicators support prices. Attention should be paid to whether the US-Iran negotiations achieve unexpected progress. In the medium and long term, crude oil remains in a bearish pattern due to OPEC's supply policy and supply-demand surplus [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - From April 30 to May 9, 2025, WTI crude oil prices increased from $58.21 to $61.02, an increase of $1.11; Brent crude oil prices increased from $61.06 to $63.91, an increase of $1.07; Dubai crude oil prices increased from $67.74 to $63.83, an increase of $0.83. Other related oil product prices also showed corresponding changes [3]. 3.2 Daily News - **US-Russia Gas Negotiations**: Washington and Moscow officials are discussing US assistance in resuming Russian gas sales to Europe. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Europe significantly reduced Russian gas imports, causing Gazprom to lose $7 billion in the following year. Trump's push for peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict increases the possibility of a thaw in gas relations [4]. - **ConocoPhillips Cuts Spending**: ConocoPhillips cut its spending forecast by 3.5% to $12.45 billion (calculated at the midpoint of its guidance range) while keeping its production forecast unchanged after crude oil prices fell below $60 per barrel. WTI crude oil has fallen about 18% this year and is still below $60. US oil company executives said they need an average oil price of $65 to make a profit [4]. - **Citi Lowers Brent Forecast**: Citi Research lowered its three - month forecast for Brent crude oil from $60 to $55 per barrel due to the restart of US-Iran nuclear negotiations. If an agreement is reached, the market supply will increase, and Brent prices may fall to $50. If no agreement is reached, prices may rise to $70 or higher. Citi believes the probability of a final agreement is 60% [5]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - **US EIA Data (Week Ended May 2)**: US crude oil exports decreased by 115,000 barrels per day to 4.006 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production decreased by 98,000 barrels to 13.367 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 2.032 million barrels to 438 million barrels, a decrease of 0.46%; the four - week average supply of US oil products was 19.756 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.55% compared to the same period last year; strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 580,000 barrels to 399.1 million barrels, an increase of 0.15%; commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.056 million barrels per day, an increase of 558,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week; EIA gasoline inventory was 188,000 barrels (expected - 1.6 million barrels, previous value - 4.003 million barrels); EIA refined oil inventory was - 1.107 million barrels (expected - 1.271 million barrels, previous value 937,000 barrels) [5][6]. - **China's Oil Market**: This week, the operating rates of major refineries and Shandong local refineries decreased. China's gasoline and diesel production both declined, including both major and local refineries. The sales - to - production ratios of local refineries for gasoline and diesel both declined and did not reach the production - sales balance. This week, the inventory of gasoline and diesel decreased by more than 4%, including major refineries, local refineries, and social inventories. The comprehensive profit of major refineries and local refineries rebounded month - on - month [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, suggesting investment opportunities in high-quality refining companies and upstream service providers [2][4]. Core Insights - The European refining sector is undergoing significant restructuring due to declining demand, aging facilities, and reduced profitability, with refining capacity decreasing by 4.2 million barrels per day since 2005, a drop of over 23% [4][5]. - The average age of European refineries is 66 years, significantly higher than the global average of 51 years, leading to increased maintenance costs and declining competitiveness [7][10]. - High natural gas prices continue to exert pressure on refinery profitability, with expectations that European gas prices will remain elevated, negatively impacting operational costs [10][12]. - Several refineries are expected to shut down in 2025, including Shell's Rheinland refinery and BP's Gelsenkirchen refinery, collectively removing 390,000 barrels per day of capacity [12][13]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - As of May 9, 2025, Brent crude futures closed at $63.91 per barrel, a week-on-week increase of 4.27%, while WTI futures rose by 4.68% to $41.02 per barrel [19]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.032 million barrels to 438 million barrels, which is 7% lower than the five-year average for this time of year [21][22]. - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. decreased by 6 to 578, a year-on-year decline of 25 rigs [19][30]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products was $10.90 per barrel as of May 9, 2025, down by $6.31 from the previous week [53]. - The price spread for ethylene was $245.67 per ton, up by $30.80 from the previous week, while propylene saw a decrease in its price spread [4][50]. Polyester Sector - PTA prices increased to an average of 4551.67 RMB per ton, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 0.75% [4][50]. - The overall performance of the polyester industry remains average, with a need to monitor demand changes closely [4][50]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong due to expected improvements in cost structures and competitive positioning [4][14]. - It also highlights the potential for recovery in the valuation of companies like Satellite Chemical and Tongkun Co., given the anticipated easing of tariffs affecting polyester demand [4][14].

Group 1 - Oil prices are rising, supported by demand expectations, but the Federal Reserve's inaction limits the extent of the increase [1] - Goldman Sachs has downgraded its oil price forecast, raising questions about market reactions [1]