Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View In the short term, policy expectations outweigh the fundamentals for urea. Although the supply pressure of urea remains high with daily production close to 200,000 tons and enterprise inventory around 750,000 tons, the top - dressing demand in July provides price support. However, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure. The recent strengthening of most commodities is due to the upcoming release of a stable - growth work plan for ten key industries announced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Price Changes - **Urea Futures Prices**: On July 21, UR01 closed at 1,780 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan or 3.49% from July 18), UR05 at 1,787 yuan/ton (up 56 yuan or 3.24%), and UR09 at 1,812 yuan/ton (up 67 yuan or 3.84%) [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: In various regions, prices increased, such as in Shandong (up 20 yuan or 1.10% to 1,830 yuan/ton), Henan (up 30 yuan or 1.66% to 1,840 yuan/ton), and Hebei (up 30 yuan or 1.69% to 1,800 yuan/ton). Only the price in the Northeast remained unchanged at 1,760 yuan/ton [1]. - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained stable at 1,000 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2,950 yuan/ton and 2,550 yuan/ton respectively. The price of melamine in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan or - 0.20% to 4,990 yuan/ton, while the price in Jiangsu remained stable at 5,200 yuan/ton [1]. b. Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased from 79 yuan/ton to 43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan [1]. - The spread between 01 - 05 increased from - 11 yuan/ton to - 7 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan [1]. c. Trading Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1,790 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,818 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,790 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,812 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1,807 yuan/ton. The position volume of 2509 was 195,945 lots [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the urea market is experiencing price increases due to policy expectations aimed at eliminating outdated production capacity and optimizing supply structure [1][2][4] - Urea futures for the main contract closed at 1812 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 3.07%, while spot prices in Shandong and Henan regions also saw increases of 20 yuan/ton and 30 yuan/ton respectively [1] - The proportion of outdated production capacity in the urea industry, particularly those using fixed bed gasification processes, has significantly decreased from about 40% in 2022 to 10% as of July 2023 [2][3] Group 2 - The policy impact on the urea industry is primarily focused on phasing out outdated production capacity and optimizing supply structures, with the economic inefficiency of older technologies driving their exit from the market [2][3] - Despite being in a traditional maintenance season, overall urea supply remains at historically high levels, and agricultural demand is expected to decline after the summer fertilization period [3][4] - The adjustment of export policies has led to a weakened expectation of domestic supply being overly relaxed, with an anticipated export volume of over 3.5 million tons for the year [4][5] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the actual impact of policies on urea production capacity is limited in the short term, with approximately 2.6 million tons of new capacity expected to enter the market [4] - The market sentiment is showing signs of recovery, with potential price rebound driven by the high proportion of production capacity over 20 years old [5] - Price support is expected to be in the range of 1680 to 1700 yuan/ton, while resistance is seen between 1850 and 1870 yuan/ton [5]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide futures market has experienced a significant surge, with the main contract reaching 3405 yuan/ton, driven by macroeconomic sentiment, while the spot market remains cautious due to high inventory levels and expectations of increased supply in the future [2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a new round of growth stabilization plans for key industries, including steel and non-ferrous metals, which is expected to influence market sentiment positively [3]. - The aluminum oxide futures market saw a notable increase of 8.39%, leading the futures market, amid expectations of the elimination of outdated production capacity [4]. - Despite the strong performance in the futures market, the supply-demand balance for aluminum oxide is not particularly tight, and the market remains profitable [5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Outlook - There are rumors of accelerated elimination of outdated production facilities, with a reported 45% of aluminum oxide facilities being over 10 years old, although the accuracy of this statistic is questioned [5]. - The market is expected to return to a supply-demand balance as downstream industries are currently not accepting high spot prices, leading to a significant discrepancy between spot and futures prices [7]. - Future supply increases are anticipated, with new production capacities expected to come online in 2025, including 1.26 million tons from domestic sources and an additional 3.5 million tons from overseas [7]. Group 3: Trading Behavior - The low holding ratio of aluminum oxide contracts is a significant factor in trading participation, with a reported holding ratio of only 0.09% [6]. - The price elasticity of aluminum oxide is high due to its low trading volume compared to other commodities, which influences market dynamics [6].

| | 国投期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月21日 | | 尿素 | ななな | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 纯苯 | なな女 | 苯乙烯 | な女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 聚丙烯 | ☆☆☆ | 塑料 | ☆☆☆ | | | PVC | ☆☆☆ | 烧碱 | な女女 | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | РХ | 女女女 | PTA | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 乙二醇 | ★☆☆ | 短纤 | な女女 | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 玻璃 | 文文文 纯碱 | | 女女女 | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 瓶片 | な女女 | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【甲醇) 受政策端利好消息提振，日内甲醇盘面偏强运行。进口到港量大幅回升,港口快速累库 ...

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Stronger than the market, maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - Focus on the progress of phasing out outdated capacity and upgrading in the petrochemical industry [2] - The petrochemical index performed relatively well this week, closing at 2272.55 points, up 1.13% from last week [5] - The best performer within the petrochemical sector was oil extraction III, which rose by 2.83% [3][5] Summary by Sections 1. Oil Market - Energy prices have shown a slight decline; as of July 18, Brent crude futures and TTF natural gas futures closed at $69.33 per barrel and €33.71 per MWh, down 1.4% and 5.3% respectively [8] - U.S. crude oil inventory increased by 9,346 thousand barrels to 1,255,837 thousand barrels, while total inventory (including strategic reserves) rose by 9,046 thousand barrels to 1,658,540 thousand barrels [12] 2. Polyester - The price of polyester filament has decreased, with POY, DTY, and FDY prices at 6,550, 7,800, and 6,800 yuan per ton respectively, showing mixed changes in price spreads [17] - The inventory days for polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased, with FDY, DTY, and POY inventory days at 25.6, 30.7, and 25.4 days [22] 3. Olefins - Sample prices for polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) remained stable at 7,700 and 8,200 yuan per ton, with a total petrochemical inventory of 770,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons from last week [26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the chemical industry, indicating a "Look Favorably" investment rating [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights supply disruptions in TDI, spandex, and organic silicon, with the commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River project expected to boost demand for civil explosives in Tibet. The elimination of outdated production capacity may improve the industry landscape [1][3]. - The report emphasizes the anticipated increase in global oil supply led by non-OPEC producers, while demand remains stable with a projected global GDP growth of 2.8%. However, the impact of tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties may affect oil demand growth [3][4]. - The report suggests that the recent fire at Covestro's German facility has led to a significant drop in TDI supply in Europe, causing prices to surge from €1900/ton to €2500/ton, with domestic prices rising from ¥12000/ton to ¥14913/ton [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry, noting a significant increase in oil supply and stable demand, while also highlighting the potential impact of geopolitical tensions and tariff policies on oil prices [3][4]. - It mentions that coal prices are expected to decline in the medium to long term, alleviating pressure on downstream sectors, and that the U.S. may accelerate natural gas export facility construction, potentially lowering import costs [3]. Supply Chain Disruptions - The report details the supply chain disruptions in TDI, spandex, and organic silicon, with specific companies recommended for investment, including Wanhua Chemical, Cangzhou Dahua, and Hualu Hengsheng [3]. - The report notes that the recent fire at Dongyue Silicon Material's factory may tighten supply in the organic silicon market, suggesting investment in Xingfa Group, Xin'an Chemical, and Luxi Chemical [3]. Policy and Capacity Elimination - The report highlights the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's plans to promote structural adjustments and eliminate outdated production capacity in key industries, which may lead to an improved industry landscape [3][6]. - It provides statistics on the proportion of outdated capacity in various chemical products, indicating potential benefits from policy changes [6][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on traditional cyclical stocks and specific companies within the chemical sector, including Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and various agricultural chemical firms [3]. - It also identifies growth stocks with recovery potential in sectors such as semiconductor materials and panel materials, suggesting companies like Yake Technology and Dinglong Co [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is driven by the expectation of supply contraction and demand expansion. The steel price is expected to remain strong before the Politburo meeting in July, but there is a risk of a pullback due to a decline in sentiment [3]. - The iron ore market remains strong, with both fundamentals and expectations improving. The short - term outlook for industrial products is positive, but there are concerns about increased shipments [17]. - The coking coal and coke market is supported by speculative and rigid demand in the short term, but the high price of furnace materials may pose a threat to steel mill profits in the long term [31]. - The ferroalloy market is expected to have an optimistic price trend in the short term, but the fundamental driving force is not strong, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations [48]. - The soda ash market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the market is in a long - term oversupply expectation. Attention should be paid to unexpected or policy - related disturbances [62]. - The glass market remains strong, and the supply is in a state of co - existence of ignition and cold repair. The market is in a weak balance, and attention should be paid to the feedback of industrial behavior on the spot side [85]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Market Situation**: Influenced by policies and project news, steel prices rose. The current supply - demand of steel has no significant contradiction, and the "off - season is not off" effect is generated. Before the Politburo meeting in July, the steel price is expected to remain strong, but there is a risk of a pullback [3]. - **Price Data**: Provided the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts on different dates, as well as spot prices, basis, and spread data [3][6][10]. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The iron ore market remains strong, with iron water production increasing unexpectedly. The inventory accumulation is not smooth, and the spot is in a tight balance. However, there are concerns about increased shipments [17]. - **Price and Fundamental Data**: Provided price data of iron ore contracts, basis, and spot prices, as well as fundamental data such as iron water production, port throughput, and inventory [18][25]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Situation**: The coking coal and coke market is supported by speculative and rigid demand in the short term, and the second round of price increases by coking plants is likely to be implemented. In the long term, the high price of furnace materials may pose a threat to steel mill profits [31]. - **Price Data**: Provided coking coal and coke contract prices, basis, and spot prices, as well as profit and ratio data [31][33]. Ferroalloy - **Market Situation**: Driven by the anti - involution sentiment and the strengthening of coal prices, the ferroalloy price is expected to be optimistic in the short term. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations [48]. - **Price Data**: Provided price data of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, including basis, spread, and spot prices [49][50]. Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: The anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity expectations are fermenting, but the actual impact needs further policy guidance. The supply is in a narrow - range fluctuation, and the demand is weak. The market is in a long - term oversupply expectation [62]. - **Price Data**: Provided soda ash contract prices, basis, and spot prices, as well as price difference data [63][64]. Glass - **Market Situation**: Driven by the anti - involution expectation, the glass market remains strong. The supply is in a state of co - existence of ignition and cold repair, and the market is in a weak balance. Attention should be paid to the feedback of industrial behavior on the spot side [85]. - **Price and Sales Data**: Provided glass contract prices, basis, and daily sales data in different regions [87][88].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, the supply is expected to remain abundant while demand hovers at the bottom. It reached the upper limit of the daily increase today, and tomorrow's ability to break through the 60 - day average is to be observed, with expected suppression. It is recommended to temporarily hold off on trading the soda ash main contract. - For glass, the industry's overall profit has improved, and the subsequent resumption of production is expected to increase. Currently, it is in a period of structural improvement. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main - contract closing price: 1,295 yuan/ton, up 79 yuan; glass main - contract closing price: 1,173 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan. - Soda ash and glass price difference: 122 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; soda ash main - contract open interest: 1,252,582 lots, down 297,884 lots; glass main - contract open interest: 1,226,964 lots, down 275,587 lots. - Soda ash top 20 net positions: - 302,967, up 157,101; glass top 20 net positions: - 293,898, up 125,572. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts: 0 tons, down 290 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts: 0 tons, down 661 tons. - Soda ash September - January contract spread: - 59 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; glass September - January contract spread: - 81 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. - Soda ash basis: - 6 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; glass basis: 7 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash: 1,210 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash: 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. - East China light soda ash: 1,140 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash: 1,175 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Shahe glass sheets: 1,088 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass sheets: 1,130 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate: 84.1%, up 2.78 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate: 75.34%, down 0.34 percentage points. - Glass in - production capacity: 15.78 million tons/year, down 0.06 million tons; glass in - production production lines: 223, down 1. - Soda ash enterprise inventory: 1.8842 million tons, down 21,400 tons; glass enterprise inventory: 64.939 million weight boxes, down 2.163 million weight boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area: 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters; cumulative real - estate completion area: 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters [2]. Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to introduce a stable - growth work plan for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals. - The supply of soda ash has increased, and the profit has rebounded slightly but remains negative. The subsequent soda ash output is expected to decline, and the natural - soda - ash method will gradually become the mainstream [2]. Viewpoint Summary - Soda ash: The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. - Glass: The supply remains at a low level, with obvious signs of production for rigid demand. The profit has improved, and the resumption of production is expected to increase. The demand from the real - estate sector is weak, and the demand for photovoltaic glass is under inventory pressure [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol in the energy and chemical sector is "oscillating and slightly bullish" [2] Group 2: Report's Core View - Despite the seasonal off - peak season for methanol downstream in July, with port inventory accumulation and minor de - stocking in production areas, and no obvious improvement in downstream demand, and large import pressure due to the restart of Iranian facilities, the short - term methanol price is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish in the range of 2350 - 2500 yuan/ton because of the positive commodity sentiment after the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's statement on promoting the elimination of backward production capacity in key industries [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday night, the futures price of the main methanol contract rose 30 yuan/ton to 2404 yuan/ton, while the spot price in the mainstream East China region fell 5 yuan/ton to 2385 yuan/ton. Long positions increased by 677 lots to 368,400 lots, and short positions increased by 18,001 lots to 483,800 lots [2] Important Information - Supply: The domestic methanol operating rate was 82.6%, a 1.5% month - on - month decline, and the overseas operating rate was 72.45%, a 1.3% month - on - month increase [2] - Inventory: The total port inventory of methanol in China was 790,200 tons, an increase of 71,300 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 63,500 tons, and that in South China increased by 7,800 tons. The inventory of sample domestic methanol producers was 352,300 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the previous period, a 1.28% month - on - month decline [2] - Demand: The signed orders of northwest methanol enterprises were 63,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons month - on - month. The pending orders of sample enterprises were 243,100 tons, an increase of 21,900 tons from the previous period, a 9.89% month - on - month increase. The olefin operating rate was 86.23%, a 0.2% month - on - month increase; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 5.19%, unchanged month - on - month; the methyl chloride operating rate was 71.27%, a 0.03% month - on - month increase; the acetic acid operating rate was 90.5%, a 3.3% month - on - month decrease; the formaldehyde operating rate was 43.6%, a 1.5% month - on - month decrease [2] - Policy: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of stable growth work plans for ten key industries including steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity [2] Market Logic - In July, the methanol downstream enters the seasonal off - peak season. The port inventory accumulates, and the production area has minor de - stocking. The downstream demand has not improved significantly. With the restart of Iranian facilities, the import pressure in July is still large. Considering the increasing number of domestic methanol facility overhauls in July, the fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand. The statement of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on July 18 led to a positive commodity sentiment, resulting in the short - term methanol price being oscillating and slightly bullish [2] Trading Strategy - Adopt a bullish trading strategy [2]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the elimination of outdated production capacity in ten key industries, indicating a faster-than-expected pace of action [1] - The prices of soda ash and glass surged on Monday, suggesting potential for further upward movement in these sectors [1]