淘汰落后产能
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化工周报:TDI、氨纶、有机硅供给端扰动,雅江项目正式开工将拉动西藏民爆需求,淘汰落后产能或助力行业格局改善-20250721
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-07-21 10:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the chemical industry, indicating a "Look Favorably" investment rating [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights supply disruptions in TDI, spandex, and organic silicon, with the commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River project expected to boost demand for civil explosives in Tibet. The elimination of outdated production capacity may improve the industry landscape [1][3]. - The report emphasizes the anticipated increase in global oil supply led by non-OPEC producers, while demand remains stable with a projected global GDP growth of 2.8%. However, the impact of tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties may affect oil demand growth [3][4]. - The report suggests that the recent fire at Covestro's German facility has led to a significant drop in TDI supply in Europe, causing prices to surge from €1900/ton to €2500/ton, with domestic prices rising from ¥12000/ton to ¥14913/ton [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry, noting a significant increase in oil supply and stable demand, while also highlighting the potential impact of geopolitical tensions and tariff policies on oil prices [3][4]. - It mentions that coal prices are expected to decline in the medium to long term, alleviating pressure on downstream sectors, and that the U.S. may accelerate natural gas export facility construction, potentially lowering import costs [3]. Supply Chain Disruptions - The report details the supply chain disruptions in TDI, spandex, and organic silicon, with specific companies recommended for investment, including Wanhua Chemical, Cangzhou Dahua, and Hualu Hengsheng [3]. - The report notes that the recent fire at Dongyue Silicon Material's factory may tighten supply in the organic silicon market, suggesting investment in Xingfa Group, Xin'an Chemical, and Luxi Chemical [3]. Policy and Capacity Elimination - The report highlights the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's plans to promote structural adjustments and eliminate outdated production capacity in key industries, which may lead to an improved industry landscape [3][6]. - It provides statistics on the proportion of outdated capacity in various chemical products, indicating potential benefits from policy changes [6][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on traditional cyclical stocks and specific companies within the chemical sector, including Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and various agricultural chemical firms [3]. - It also identifies growth stocks with recovery potential in sectors such as semiconductor materials and panel materials, suggesting companies like Yake Technology and Dinglong Co [3].
黑色产业链日报-20250721
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 10:08
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is driven by the expectation of supply contraction and demand expansion. The steel price is expected to remain strong before the Politburo meeting in July, but there is a risk of a pullback due to a decline in sentiment [3]. - The iron ore market remains strong, with both fundamentals and expectations improving. The short - term outlook for industrial products is positive, but there are concerns about increased shipments [17]. - The coking coal and coke market is supported by speculative and rigid demand in the short term, but the high price of furnace materials may pose a threat to steel mill profits in the long term [31]. - The ferroalloy market is expected to have an optimistic price trend in the short term, but the fundamental driving force is not strong, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations [48]. - The soda ash market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the market is in a long - term oversupply expectation. Attention should be paid to unexpected or policy - related disturbances [62]. - The glass market remains strong, and the supply is in a state of co - existence of ignition and cold repair. The market is in a weak balance, and attention should be paid to the feedback of industrial behavior on the spot side [85]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Market Situation**: Influenced by policies and project news, steel prices rose. The current supply - demand of steel has no significant contradiction, and the "off - season is not off" effect is generated. Before the Politburo meeting in July, the steel price is expected to remain strong, but there is a risk of a pullback [3]. - **Price Data**: Provided the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts on different dates, as well as spot prices, basis, and spread data [3][6][10]. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The iron ore market remains strong, with iron water production increasing unexpectedly. The inventory accumulation is not smooth, and the spot is in a tight balance. However, there are concerns about increased shipments [17]. - **Price and Fundamental Data**: Provided price data of iron ore contracts, basis, and spot prices, as well as fundamental data such as iron water production, port throughput, and inventory [18][25]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Situation**: The coking coal and coke market is supported by speculative and rigid demand in the short term, and the second round of price increases by coking plants is likely to be implemented. In the long term, the high price of furnace materials may pose a threat to steel mill profits [31]. - **Price Data**: Provided coking coal and coke contract prices, basis, and spot prices, as well as profit and ratio data [31][33]. Ferroalloy - **Market Situation**: Driven by the anti - involution sentiment and the strengthening of coal prices, the ferroalloy price is expected to be optimistic in the short term. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations [48]. - **Price Data**: Provided price data of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, including basis, spread, and spot prices [49][50]. Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: The anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity expectations are fermenting, but the actual impact needs further policy guidance. The supply is in a narrow - range fluctuation, and the demand is weak. The market is in a long - term oversupply expectation [62]. - **Price Data**: Provided soda ash contract prices, basis, and spot prices, as well as price difference data [63][64]. Glass - **Market Situation**: Driven by the anti - involution expectation, the glass market remains strong. The supply is in a state of co - existence of ignition and cold repair, and the market is in a weak balance. Attention should be paid to the feedback of industrial behavior on the spot side [85]. - **Price and Sales Data**: Provided glass contract prices, basis, and daily sales data in different regions [87][88].
瑞达期货纯碱玻璃产业日报-20250721
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 10:06
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, the supply is expected to remain abundant while demand hovers at the bottom. It reached the upper limit of the daily increase today, and tomorrow's ability to break through the 60 - day average is to be observed, with expected suppression. It is recommended to temporarily hold off on trading the soda ash main contract. - For glass, the industry's overall profit has improved, and the subsequent resumption of production is expected to increase. Currently, it is in a period of structural improvement. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main - contract closing price: 1,295 yuan/ton, up 79 yuan; glass main - contract closing price: 1,173 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan. - Soda ash and glass price difference: 122 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; soda ash main - contract open interest: 1,252,582 lots, down 297,884 lots; glass main - contract open interest: 1,226,964 lots, down 275,587 lots. - Soda ash top 20 net positions: - 302,967, up 157,101; glass top 20 net positions: - 293,898, up 125,572. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts: 0 tons, down 290 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts: 0 tons, down 661 tons. - Soda ash September - January contract spread: - 59 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; glass September - January contract spread: - 81 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. - Soda ash basis: - 6 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; glass basis: 7 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash: 1,210 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash: 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. - East China light soda ash: 1,140 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash: 1,175 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Shahe glass sheets: 1,088 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass sheets: 1,130 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate: 84.1%, up 2.78 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate: 75.34%, down 0.34 percentage points. - Glass in - production capacity: 15.78 million tons/year, down 0.06 million tons; glass in - production production lines: 223, down 1. - Soda ash enterprise inventory: 1.8842 million tons, down 21,400 tons; glass enterprise inventory: 64.939 million weight boxes, down 2.163 million weight boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area: 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters; cumulative real - estate completion area: 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters [2]. Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to introduce a stable - growth work plan for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals. - The supply of soda ash has increased, and the profit has rebounded slightly but remains negative. The subsequent soda ash output is expected to decline, and the natural - soda - ash method will gradually become the mainstream [2]. Viewpoint Summary - Soda ash: The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. - Glass: The supply remains at a low level, with obvious signs of production for rigid demand. The profit has improved, and the resumption of production is expected to increase. The demand from the real - estate sector is weak, and the demand for photovoltaic glass is under inventory pressure [2].
格林大华期货早盘提示:甲醇-20250721
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 05:13
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol in the energy and chemical sector is "oscillating and slightly bullish" [2] Group 2: Report's Core View - Despite the seasonal off - peak season for methanol downstream in July, with port inventory accumulation and minor de - stocking in production areas, and no obvious improvement in downstream demand, and large import pressure due to the restart of Iranian facilities, the short - term methanol price is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish in the range of 2350 - 2500 yuan/ton because of the positive commodity sentiment after the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's statement on promoting the elimination of backward production capacity in key industries [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday night, the futures price of the main methanol contract rose 30 yuan/ton to 2404 yuan/ton, while the spot price in the mainstream East China region fell 5 yuan/ton to 2385 yuan/ton. Long positions increased by 677 lots to 368,400 lots, and short positions increased by 18,001 lots to 483,800 lots [2] Important Information - Supply: The domestic methanol operating rate was 82.6%, a 1.5% month - on - month decline, and the overseas operating rate was 72.45%, a 1.3% month - on - month increase [2] - Inventory: The total port inventory of methanol in China was 790,200 tons, an increase of 71,300 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 63,500 tons, and that in South China increased by 7,800 tons. The inventory of sample domestic methanol producers was 352,300 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the previous period, a 1.28% month - on - month decline [2] - Demand: The signed orders of northwest methanol enterprises were 63,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons month - on - month. The pending orders of sample enterprises were 243,100 tons, an increase of 21,900 tons from the previous period, a 9.89% month - on - month increase. The olefin operating rate was 86.23%, a 0.2% month - on - month increase; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 5.19%, unchanged month - on - month; the methyl chloride operating rate was 71.27%, a 0.03% month - on - month increase; the acetic acid operating rate was 90.5%, a 3.3% month - on - month decrease; the formaldehyde operating rate was 43.6%, a 1.5% month - on - month decrease [2] - Policy: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of stable growth work plans for ten key industries including steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity [2] Market Logic - In July, the methanol downstream enters the seasonal off - peak season. The port inventory accumulates, and the production area has minor de - stocking. The downstream demand has not improved significantly. With the restart of Iranian facilities, the import pressure in July is still large. Considering the increasing number of domestic methanol facility overhauls in July, the fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand. The statement of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on July 18 led to a positive commodity sentiment, resulting in the short - term methanol price being oscillating and slightly bullish [2] Trading Strategy - Adopt a bullish trading strategy [2]
【期货热点追踪】工信部上周发布10大重点行业淘汰落后产能消息,机构称动作比想象中更快!纯碱、玻璃周一大涨,上方空间还有多少?点击了解。
news flash· 2025-07-21 03:05
Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the elimination of outdated production capacity in ten key industries, indicating a faster-than-expected pace of action [1] - The prices of soda ash and glass surged on Monday, suggesting potential for further upward movement in these sectors [1]
氧化铝周报:淘汰落后产能消息主导氧化铝偏强-20250721
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 03:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The news of eliminating backward production capacity released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on Friday may affect some previously backward alumina production capacity. After a brief inventory build - up, the alumina warehouse receipt inventory has returned to an extremely low level of less than 10,000 tons. The market's bullish sentiment has returned, and alumina is expected to continue to be strong. However, the actual impact of the standards for eliminating backward production capacity on alumina needs to be further observed [2][4][6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data - From July 11th to July 18th, 2025, the price of the active alumina futures contract increased from 3,117 yuan/ton to 3,133 yuan/ton, a rise of 16 yuan/ton. The price of domestic alumina spot increased from 3,186 yuan/ton to 3,202 yuan/ton, also a rise of 16 yuan/ton. The spot premium changed from - 4 yuan/ton to 51 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Australian alumina decreased from 370 US dollars/ton to 368 US dollars/ton, a drop of 2 US dollars/ton. The import profit and loss improved from - 88.85 yuan/ton to - 85.12 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.7 yuan/ton. The exchange warehouse inventory decreased from 18,612 tons to 6,922 tons, a decrease of 11,690 tons, and the exchange factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons [3] Market Review - Last week, the main alumina futures contract rose 0.51% to close at 3,133 yuan/ton. The national weighted - average spot price on Friday was 3,202 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous week. The supply and price of domestic bauxite remained stable last week. For imported ore, the impact of the rainy season in Guinea on ore shipments is gradually emerging, but there is no direct impact on short - term arrivals in China due to the more than 45 - day shipping time. The alumina production capacity in operation remains at a high level. Some enterprises' calciner overhauls have ended, while others are still in progress, leading to a temporary shortage of supply in some areas and supporting the price. As of July 17th, China's alumina installed capacity was 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity was 93.2 million tons, and the operating rate was 81.18%. The demand for alumina has increased due to the resumption of production by Guizhou electrolytic aluminum enterprises and the transfer of production capacity from Shandong to Yunnan. The alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 12,000 tons to 7,000 tons last Friday, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons [4] Market Outlook - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the optimization of the industrial structure and elimination of backward production capacity in ten major industries such as non - ferrous metals and steel. The bauxite end was basically stable last week, and the impact of the rainy season in Guinea on shipments needs to be monitored. On the supply side, there are both increases and decreases in alumina production capacity, and the overall operating capacity remains at a high level. As of last Thursday, the domestic alumina operating capacity was 93.2 million tons, with an operating rate of 81.18%. The market sentiment of holding back goods and supporting prices remains unchanged, especially in some areas where spot goods are in short supply and the spot price is good. By the end of last week, the theoretical import window for overseas alumina slightly opened. On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum plants replenish inventory as needed, mainly through long - term contracts, and some transactions have slightly increased following the quotes of alumina enterprises. The warehouse receipt inventory changed from a decrease to an increase this week, with a decrease of 12,000 tons to 7,000 tons, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons. Overall, the news of eliminating backward production capacity may affect some previously backward alumina production capacity. The alumina warehouse receipt inventory has returned to an extremely low level, and the market's bullish sentiment has returned. Alumina is expected to continue to be strong, but the actual impact of the standards for eliminating backward production capacity on alumina needs to be further observed [2][5][6] Industry News - Canyon Resources announced the official start of the key infrastructure construction of the Minim Martap bauxite project, aiming to build an efficient export supply chain from the Minim Martap mine to the Douala port to support production in early 2026 and the first bauxite exports in the first half of 2026. Rio Tinto released its Q2 2025 production performance report, with bauxite production reaching 15.644 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 5% (production guidance range: 57 - 59 million tons) [7] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including those on alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premiums, alumina month - to - first - continuous spread, domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite CIF prices, caustic soda prices, power coal prices, alumina cost - profit, and alumina exchange inventory, which visually display the changes in relevant data over time [8][9][11]
【期货热点追踪】“淘汰落后产能”消息释出,氧化铝价格大幅拉涨!今天会触及涨停吗?点击了解。
news flash· 2025-07-21 01:16
Core Viewpoint - The announcement regarding the elimination of outdated production capacity has led to a significant increase in alumina prices, raising speculation about whether prices will hit the daily limit today [1] Group 1 - The news highlights the impact of policy changes on commodity prices, specifically alumina [1] - There is a market expectation for alumina prices to potentially reach their daily limit due to the recent developments [1]
五矿期货早报有色金属-20250721
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 01:08
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents Core Views - Copper prices are expected to have a weak rebound due to factors such as the expected US copper tariff implementation and limited actual demand growth, with the SHFE copper main contract expected to trade between 77,500 - 80,000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M between 9,500 - 9,950 dollars/ton [1]. - Aluminum prices may continue to rise driven by low inventory and positive sentiment, but the increase is expected to be limited as the downstream is in the off - season and export demand is weak. The domestic main contract is expected to trade between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M between 2,550 - 2,680 dollars/ton [3]. - Lead prices are expected to be weak as the supply is relatively loose, and the consumption is suppressed by the anti - dumping tariff in the Middle East [4]. - Zinc prices are expected to be bearish in the medium - to - long term due to the abundant supply, but may show a short - term oscillating and strengthening trend due to positive market sentiment [6]. - Tin prices are expected to be weak in the short term as the supply is low but the demand is also weak, with the domestic tin price expected to trade between 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton and LME tin between 31,000 - 34,000 dollars/ton [7]. - Nickel ore prices are expected to decline due to weak demand, and the nickel market is in an oversupply situation, with the short - term SHFE nickel main contract expected to trade between 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M between 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [8][9][10]. - Lithium carbonate prices had a significant weekly increase, but the weak reality remains. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate main contract is expected to trade between 68,000 - 72,200 yuan/ton [12]. - Alumina prices are expected to be strong in the short term but the over - capacity situation is difficult to change in the year. The domestic main contract AO2509 is expected to trade between 3,000 - 3,500 yuan/ton [14]. - Stainless steel prices may rise slightly due to policy and demand support, but the de - stocking pressure of 304 series products is still prominent [17]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices may rise further due to cost support and positive macro - atmosphere, but may face downward pressure after the increase [19]. Summary by Metal Copper - Last week, copper prices first declined and then rose, with LME copper rising 1.36% to 9,794 dollars/ton and SHFE copper main contract closing at 79,040 yuan/ton [1]. - Three major exchanges' inventories increased by 21,000 tons, and Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 2,000 tons [1]. - The spot import loss narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium increased [1]. - The LME market's Cash/3M discount widened, and the domestic basis quotes were differentiated [1]. - The refined - scrap copper price difference was 960 yuan/ton, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises increased slightly [1]. Aluminum - Last week, aluminum prices declined and then rebounded, with SHFE aluminum main contract falling 0.89% and LME aluminum rising 1.38% to 2,638 dollars/ton [3]. - The SHFE aluminum weighted contract's open interest decreased by 55,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased to 67,000 tons [3]. - Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased to 492,000 tons, and the bonded area inventory decreased to 116,000 tons [3]. - The operating rate of major domestic aluminum product enterprises continued to decline [3]. Lead - On Friday, SHFE lead index fell 0.16% to 16,836 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose 3 to 1,977 dollars/ton [4]. - The refined - scrap lead price difference was at par, and the price of lead - acid batteries stopped falling and stabilized [4]. - The supply of lead ingots was relatively loose, and both social and enterprise inventories increased [4]. - The consumption of lead ingots was suppressed by the anti - dumping tariff in the Middle East [4]. Zinc - On Friday, SHFE zinc index rose 0.80% to 22,285 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose 56.5 to 2,753.5 dollars/ton [6]. - The domestic supply of zinc ore was abundant, and the import zinc concentrate TC index increased significantly [6]. - In June, the domestic refined zinc output increased by 36,000 tons to 585,000 tons, and the supply is expected to continue to increase [6]. - The short - term zinc price may show an oscillating and strengthening trend due to positive market sentiment [6]. Tin - Last week, tin prices fluctuated narrowly [7]. - The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is progressing, but domestic smelters still face raw material supply pressure [7]. - The consumption in the off - season was poor, and the order volume of downstream factories was low [7]. - The social inventory of tin ingots decreased slightly [7]. Nickel - Nickel ore prices stabilized after a decline, and are expected to continue to decline due to weak demand [8]. - The demand for stainless steel had some support, but the short - term supply - demand contradiction was still large [8]. - The supply of nickel iron may decrease slightly in July, and the over - supply situation is difficult to reverse in the short term [8]. - The supply of intermediate products is expected to loosen [9]. - Last week, nickel prices fluctuated around 120,000 yuan/ton, and the market sentiment was cautious [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate had a significant weekly increase, with the MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate rising 1,000 yuan on average [12]. - The price of Australian imported lithium concentrate also increased [12]. - The weak reality of lithium carbonate remains, with high production and inventory [12]. Alumina - On July 18, the alumina index rose 1.33% to 3,120 yuan/ton [14]. - The spot prices in some regions increased, and the import window was closed [14]. - The futures warehouse receipts decreased to a historical low [14]. - The short - term price may be strong, but the over - capacity situation is difficult to change in the year [14]. Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,725 yuan/ton [17]. - The spot prices in some markets increased, and the raw material prices were stable [17]. - The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased by 1.69% [17]. - The stainless steel price may rise slightly due to policy and demand support [17]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Last week, cast aluminum alloy futures prices first declined and then rose, with the AD2511 contract falling 0.28% to 19,875 yuan/ton [19]. - The weighted contract's open interest decreased slightly, and the contract spread was stable [19]. - The spot price was relatively stable, and the production cost increased [19]. - The production volume increased, and the total inventory decreased [19].
镍:宏观情绪提振预期,现实限制弹性空间,不锈钢:现实与宏观博弈,钢价震荡运行
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-20 08:28
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai nickel are characterized by the resonance of macro and news factors, while the real - world fundamentals limit its price elasticity. The fundamentals of stainless steel show that macro expectations boost the market, but the actual supply - demand situation still exerts a drag. The price of nickel and stainless steel is expected to show an oscillatory pattern [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Fundamentals - Macro and news factors improve market sentiment, with policies potentially adjusting the structure and optimizing supply. The Indonesian APNI Association suggests re - evaluating the HPM formula for nickel ore, which may increase smelting costs. However, the support from the ore end has weakened, and the smelting end limits the upward elasticity of nickel prices. The negative feedback in July has affected the supply side, and the acceptance of high smelting prices in the ternary sector is low [1]. Stainless Steel Fundamentals - U.S. tariffs suppress the terminal demand for stainless steel, but domestic policy expectations boost the market. The real - world supply - demand situation has turned into a double - weak state, with weekly inventory slightly decreasing. The production schedule in July shows a decline in China and an increase in Indonesia. The high - cost cash cost of Indonesian stainless steel has decreased, and the high inventory of nickel - iron pressures its valuation [2]. Inventory Changes - China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,674 tons to 38,979 tons, LME nickel inventory increased by 1,398 tons to 207,576 tons. The mid - July nickel - iron inventory was 37,534 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 50% and a month - on - month decrease of 11%. On July 17, 2025, the total social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 1.69% week - on - week. China's port nickel ore inventory increased by 518,700 wet tons to 9.4836 million wet tons [3][4][6]. Market News - There are various events such as the potential halt of nickel exports from Ontario to the U.S., the successful trial production of a nickel - iron project in Indonesia, the resumption of production of a nickel smelter, the shutdown and maintenance of a cold - rolling mill, the removal of the raw ore export ban in the Philippines, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, the plan to shorten the mining quota period in Indonesia, and the suspension of production of some nickel - iron EF lines due to losses [7][8][9]. Weekly Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and related price differences of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures, as well as prices and spreads in the industrial chain such as electrolytic nickel, nickel - iron, and stainless steel products [11].
工信部总工程师谢少锋:钢铁、有色、石化等十大重点行业稳增长工作方案即将出台。工业和信息化部将推动重点行业着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能。
news flash· 2025-07-18 07:39
Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to release a work plan aimed at stabilizing growth in ten key industries, including steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals [1] Group 1: Industry Focus - The plan will focus on structural adjustments, optimizing supply, and eliminating outdated production capacity in key industries [1]