美国作为美元区的管理者，作为国际秩序的主导者（ 霸主/爹味 ）。 现如今，美元体系中充斥着各类天文数字，这些数字已经超出了美国本土经济的体量。这是因为 非美经济体的高增长（收入）需求和资产配置需求（远期/定期的 美元收入），都需要基于美元体量的持续扩张来完成 。 文章来源于：智堡Mikko 本文是笔者基于自身美元体系研究的一些反思，文章更多地是在向内发问，而不是对时下问题的求解， 简言之，我没有答案 。 一些脱离实际的内容纯属本人 YY 虚构，欢迎探讨。 起源 当下的全球经济与货币体系是美式全球化的造物，在摆脱黄金的限制以后，美式全球化运行在 三个关键机制 之上： 美元作为单一的主导货币，美国的需求作为全球经济的增长来源。简言之，美国 生产货币 ，非美 囤积货币 ；美国 出口需求 ，非美 出口供给 。这形成了 巨量的 双边贸易流动 。 得益于金融（银行）的自由度以及纯信用货币的扩张能力，美元体系在 资本流动不受限制 的前提下渗透至全球，美元信贷/存款、美元资产/负债链接起美国与非 美经济体，形成 巨量的双边资本流动 。 随着柏林墙的倒塌与中国入世，美式全球化迎来了巨量适龄劳动人口的涌入，区域内的美元劳动收入向 ...

Economic Analysis - The U.S. has consistently maintained a trade deficit, averaging $73.79 billion annually from 1973 until China's WTO accession, with manufacturing contributing only 0.58% to annual GDP growth during that period[3] - In 2022, U.S. manufacturing GDP grew by 11.45%, yet the trade deficit exceeded $1 trillion for the first time[3] - During the global economic boom from 2004 to 2007, the U.S. trade deficit expanded by 40.1% as global GDP growth averaged 4.33%[3] Policy Implications - The goals of maintaining the dollar's global currency status while reducing the trade deficit are inherently contradictory, as seen in historical agreements like the Plaza Accord[3] - The return of manufacturing to the U.S. will not resolve the trade deficit issue, indicating a complex economic landscape for policymakers[3] Market Indicators - The rising gold prices may reflect market anticipations regarding the challenges faced by the Trump administration in achieving multiple economic objectives[3] - Risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and potential global recession impacting major economies' monetary policies[3]

Group 1: Tariff Impact on Trade - The "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the U.S. are unlikely to resolve the structural trade deficit, leading to escalating tariff levels, particularly against China, which saw tariffs rise to 125%[7] - If trade negotiations occur mid-year, China's exports to the U.S. could decline by approximately 40%, impacting total exports by 5% and GDP by 0.6%[2] - Delayed negotiations until year-end could result in an 8% decline in total exports, with a 26% impact on trade surplus and a GDP effect of 1.2%[2] Group 2: Historical Context and Economic Trends - The last significant rise in U.S. tariffs occurred between 1920-1933, contrasting sharply with the current economic and political landscape[2] - Historical tariff increases have often led to retaliatory measures from other countries, significantly affecting U.S. exports and contributing to economic downturns[40] - The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 raised tariffs to historic highs, exacerbating the Great Depression and leading to a 66% decline in world trade from 1929 to 1934[46] Group 3: Asset Market Outlook - The U.S. dollar is expected to weaken in the long term due to the "Triffin Dilemma," despite short-term volatility caused by market uncertainty[3] - U.S. Treasury yields are projected to remain stable, with the Federal Reserve expected to pause interest rate cuts in May and potentially lower rates four times within the year, totaling 100 basis points[3] - The U.S. stock market is anticipated to face downward pressure due to policy uncertainties and recession fears, leading to continued volatility[3]

Core Viewpoint - The value of gold as a hedge against dollar risk is strengthening in the context of high interest rates, high inflation, and low growth, despite the dollar remaining the center of the global monetary system [1][5]. Group 1: Historical Context of Gold - The establishment and eventual collapse of the gold standard were influenced by historical events, particularly World War I, which led to high deficits and inflation, causing countries to restrict gold convertibility [1][2]. - The Bretton Woods system emerged as a beneficiary of the gold standard's collapse, but it faced challenges due to the over-reliance on the U.S. economy and the "Triffin dilemma," which ultimately led to its end [2]. - The formation of the Jamaica system in 1976 marked a shift from a gold anchor to a credit anchor, establishing a floating exchange rate system and decoupling currencies from gold [3]. Group 2: Current Global Monetary Environment - The current macroeconomic environment in the U.S. is characterized by high interest rates, high inflation, and low growth, creating tensions between fiscal, economic, and monetary policies [5]. - There is an increasing demand for digital currencies and gold among global central banks, reflecting systemic changes in the global economy post-pandemic [5][6]. Group 3: Gold's Role in the Current Monetary System - Gold cannot replace the dollar but serves as an important asset for hedging against dollar risks, particularly for non-U.S. economies facing domestic inflation and concerns over the dollar's credit system [6][7]. - The influence of gold's anti-inflation, safe-haven, and credit attributes on its price is becoming more pronounced, even as U.S. Federal Reserve policies remain a significant factor [7].

文 ｜ 明明 余经纬 秦楚媛 周昀锋 特朗普宣布"对等关税"政策后，或是出于对未来美国基本面的担忧，美元指数不涨反跌。考虑到对 个别国家和地区单独加征关税落地前仍是谈判窗口期，预计美元指数或波动加剧。中期维度下，美 元指数的交易逻辑或仍在于美国与欧日等非美经济体在货币政策以及基本面表现的差异，单纯的贸 易逆差收窄甚至转为顺差并不能支撑美元走强，同时美元指数或也难单边大幅下行。美元的长期逻 辑则相对复杂，且存在多个矛盾点。一是加征关税或率先引发贸易国货币走贬，与弱美元政策矛 盾。二是弱美元政策需要与同盟配合，采取人为操纵，这与美元维持国际货币地位矛盾。三是加征 关税背景下，美国通胀或反复并导致货币政策难以宽松，美元指数难以大幅走弱。 ▍ 美元指数的短期逻辑仍在于货政差和经济差。 特朗普宣布"对等关税"政策后，美元指数不涨反跌，日元和瑞郎作为传统避险货币表现亮眼。在 对个别国家和地区单独加征关税落地前，各经济体与美国的谈判存在不确定性，预计美元指数短 期维持高波动。中期维度下，美元指数的交易逻辑或仍在于美国与欧日等非美经济体在货币政策 以及基本面表现的差异，单纯的贸易逆差收窄甚至转为顺差并不能支撑美元走强，同时美 ...

Core Viewpoint - In the current macroeconomic environment characterized by high interest rates, high inflation, and low growth, the value of gold as a hedge against dollar risk is strengthening, highlighting an important marginal change for gold prices [1]. Group 1: Historical Context of Gold - The establishment and eventual collapse of the gold standard were influenced by the scarcity of gold and its perception as a symbol of wealth, leading to its natural monetary attributes [2]. - The collapse of the gold standard was accelerated by World War I, which resulted in high deficits and inflation, causing countries to restrict gold convertibility [2]. - The transition from the gold standard to the Bretton Woods system marked a significant shift, where the U.S. emerged as the primary beneficiary, but the system faced challenges due to the over-issuance of dollars and insufficient gold reserves [3][6]. Group 2: Evolution of the Global Monetary System - The formation of the Jamaica system in 1976 transitioned the international monetary system from a gold anchor to a credit anchor, allowing for floating exchange rates and decoupling currencies from gold [8]. - The U.S. remains the core of the global monetary system, with the Jamaica system creating a dollar circulation system contrary to the Bretton Woods framework [8]. Group 3: Current Macroeconomic Environment - The U.S. economy is currently facing challenges that affect the global monetary system, including high interest rates, high inflation, and low growth, leading to a complex interplay between fiscal, economic, and monetary policies [12]. - The demand for digital currencies and gold is increasing among global central banks as they navigate these challenges [12]. Group 4: Gold's Value in the Current Monetary System - While gold cannot replace the dollar, it serves as an important asset for hedging against dollar risks, particularly in light of long-term inflation risks and concerns over U.S. policy [15]. - The attributes of gold, including its anti-inflation, safe-haven, and credit properties, are becoming increasingly influential on gold prices, alongside the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between gold, the US dollar, and the Triffin Dilemma, emphasizing that the current crisis of the dollar presents investment opportunities in gold as a hedge against currency instability [5][24]. Group 1: The Lake House Agreement - The so-called "Lake House Agreement" suggests that the US may be attempting to engage in a financial war globally, although no official text exists [4]. - The agreement includes demands for trade partners to appreciate their currencies against the dollar and to classify countries as allies or adversaries for tariff purposes [4]. - The challenges of implementing such an agreement are acknowledged, particularly regarding its feasibility with allies and trade partners [4]. Group 2: Historical Context of Currency - The article traces the origins of credit currency back to 17th century England, where goldsmiths began issuing receipts that evolved into banknotes [6][8]. - The establishment of the Bank of England marked a significant shift in government financing, allowing for a stable source of revenue beyond taxes and loans from merchants [9]. - The article highlights the inherent monopoly of credit currency, where only the most trusted credit can be widely accepted [9]. Group 3: The Nature of Government Credit - The article discusses the paradox of government credit: if a government is too weak, its currency may be replaced; if too strong, it risks losing credibility [11]. - Historical examples from China illustrate how excessive issuance of paper currency during times of war led to loss of public trust and eventual economic collapse [19][20]. Group 4: The Triffin Dilemma - The Triffin Dilemma describes the conflict between the need for the US to run trade deficits to supply the world with dollars and the need to maintain the dollar's value [25][27]. - The article notes that the end of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 marked a significant shift, allowing the US to print money without the constraint of gold reserves [27][28]. - The ongoing challenge for the US is to balance international obligations with domestic economic stability, a task complicated by political pressures [29]. Group 5: Gold as a Hedge - The article concludes that gold serves as a "vote of no confidence" against fiat currencies, particularly the dollar, as central banks increase their gold reserves amid currency crises [32][34]. - It argues that while credit currency is a significant innovation, it requires a balanced government that is neither too strong nor too weak to maintain public trust [35]. - The potential for digital currencies to replace gold as a stable value store is also mentioned, indicating a shift in the future of monetary systems [35].