Group 1 - The report highlights the importance of balancing stock and bond markets during the initial phase of economic recovery, with a focus on policy-driven factors and external shocks [6][51]. - The bond market is expected to experience fluctuations driven by policy dynamics, external impacts, and economic data divergence, with a continued likelihood of interest rate cuts [51][52]. - The equity market is anticipated to benefit from ongoing policy support, improved liquidity, and a gradual economic recovery, leading to a dynamic interplay between growth and value stocks [7][59]. Group 2 - The report suggests focusing on three main industry themes for the second half of 2025: technology self-sufficiency, domestic consumption stimulation, and dividend assets [8]. - The technology sector, particularly in communications, electronics, and artificial intelligence, is positioned for growth due to increased capital expenditure and inventory replenishment [8][19]. - The consumer sector, including food and beverage, home appliances, and pharmaceuticals, is expected to see investment opportunities driven by government policies aimed at boosting consumption [8][43]. Group 3 - The report indicates that the domestic economic environment is gradually improving, with GDP growth increasing from 4.8% in the first three quarters of 2024 to 5.4% in the first quarter of 2025 [6][19]. - The retail sales of consumer goods showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 5% from January to May 2025, with a notable increase in May to 6.4%, indicating a recovery in consumer sentiment [19][20]. - Fixed asset investment growth has also shown a slight increase, reflecting a stable investment environment, although real estate investment remains under pressure with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 10.7% [19][20].

6月16日，恒生指数、恒生科技指数集体低开，盘中回升，中证港股通消费主题人民币指数(931455.CSI) 下跌0.43%，该指数成分股中，周大福上涨超4%，中国儒意、农夫山泉上涨超3%，中国飞鹤与小米集 团-W上涨超1%。 东莞证券表示，关注6月底前政策落地情况。6月仍有多个重要会议，比如6月18至19日召开的陆家嘴论 坛，有望为当前结构性行情提供支持，短期A股有望维持震荡抬升基本格局。关注科技自主可控、消费 升级等领域，以及大金融、红利、重组概念等国家队增持方向。 相关ETF方面，港股消费ETF（159735）低开高走，截至发稿上涨0.5%，涨幅暂居同标的第1名，成交 额为282.87万元，暂居同标的第1名，实时溢价率为0.14%。资金流向方面，该ETF上个交易日(6月13日) 净流入额为162.01万元，截至上个交易日，已连续2个交易日获资金净流入，累计净流入额为244.98万 元。该ETF最新流通份额为7.77亿份，最新流通规模为6.29亿元。 港股消费ETF（159735）跟踪中证港股通消费主题指数，该指数选取港股通范围内流动性较好、市值较 大的50只消费主题相关股票组成指数样本，采用自由流通市值加 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced narrow fluctuations with mixed performance across the three major indices, where the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3402.66, up by 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.11% to 10234.33 [1][3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.27 trillion, an increase of 163 billion compared to the previous trading day, indicating heightened market activity [5] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Nonferrous Metals (up 1.40%), Media (up 1.33%), and Beauty Care (up 1.31%), while the underperforming sectors were Household Appliances (down 1.77%), Coal (down 1.14%), and Food & Beverage (down 1.13%) [2] - Concept indices showed strong performance in Hair Medical (up 2.02%), IP Economy (up 1.81%), and Quantum Technology (up 1.72%), while the weakest performers included the China-South Korea Free Trade Zone (down 1.52%) and Pork (down 1.11%) [2] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a basic pattern of fluctuating upward movement, with a focus on sectors such as technology self-sufficiency and consumption upgrades, as well as large financials and restructuring concepts favored by state-owned enterprises [5] - Key upcoming events, including the Lujiazui Forum from June 18 to 19, are anticipated to provide support for the current structural market [5] Policy and Economic Indicators - The National Development and Reform Commission supports eligible Hong Kong-listed companies to issue depositary receipts on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, which may enhance market liquidity [4] - The U.S. inflation data for May showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, aligning with expectations, while core CPI rose by 2.8%, slightly below forecasts, indicating potential for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [4]

其 他 报 告 2025年06月09日 晨会纪要 | 国内市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 上证综合指数 | 3385 | 0.04 | 1.13 | | 深证成份指数 | 10184 | -0.19 | 1.42 | | 沪深300指数 | 3874 | -0.09 | 0.88 | | 创业板指数 | 2039 | -0.45 | 2.32 | | 上证国债指数 | 225 | 0.03 | 0.08 | | 上证基金指数 | 6915 | 0.00 | 0.17 | | | | 资料来源:同花顺iFinD | | | 海外市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 中国香港恒生指数 | 23793 | -0.48 | 2.16 | | 中国香港国企指数 | 8630 | -0.63 | 2.34 | | 中国台湾加权指数 | 21661 | -0.06 | 1.47 | | 道琼斯指数 | 42763 | 1.0 ...

Group 1 - Multiple important domestic data will be released this week, including May CPI, PPI, M2 money supply, social financing, and import-export data [1][2] - The U.S. will release May CPI and PPI data, which are critical for assessing inflation trends [1][2] - Significant events include He Lifeng's visit to the UK and the opening of Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference [1][2] Group 2 - A total of 41 stocks will face lock-up expiration this week, with a total unlock volume of 2.054 billion shares, amounting to a market value of 44.123 billion yuan [3][4] - The top three companies by unlock market value are: Dameng Data (10.752 billion yuan), Huahai Qingke (10.4 billion yuan), and YN Technology (3.059 billion yuan) [3][4] Group 3 - He Lifeng will visit the UK and hold the first meeting of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism [5] - The Ministry of Commerce addressed concerns regarding China's export control measures on rare earths, emphasizing compliance and communication with other countries [5] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month, reaching 73.83 million ounces by the end of May [5] Group 4 - As of the end of May, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at 328.53 billion USD, reflecting a slight increase of 36 million USD from the previous month [6][7] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange is promoting increased dividend payouts by listed companies to enhance investment value [7] - Central Huijin has become the actual controller of multiple securities and fund management companies [7] Group 5 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is implementing an "AI + Manufacturing" initiative to deepen the application of AI in the industrial sector [7] - The U.S. State Department has resumed processing student visas for international students planning to attend Harvard University [8] Group 6 - Two new stocks will be issued this week: Huazhi Jie on the Shanghai main board and Xinhenghui on the ChiNext [9][10] - The subscription limits and prices for these new stocks have been set, with Huazhi Jie priced at 19.88 yuan [10] Group 7 - Various securities firms are optimistic about sectors such as new consumption, banking, and insurance, indicating strong short-term demand and long-term investment value [11][12] - The focus on technology and high-end manufacturing sectors is expected to continue, particularly in defense and semiconductor industries [12][13] - The market is anticipated to experience a rotation of themes, with potential opportunities in new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and AI technologies [13]

Group 1 - The report indicates that in May, the equity market experienced a mixed performance with financial and pharmaceutical sectors leading the gains, while the technology sector saw a slight decline, with the Sci-Tech 50 Index dropping by 3.5% [11][13] - The convertible bond market showed resilience, with the overall market rising by 2.22% and financial convertible bonds increasing by 2.94%, outperforming other sectors [2][13] - The report highlights that the valuation of convertible bonds has retreated from high levels, with the premium rate for bonds trading at par falling below 22%, which is around the 50th percentile of 2017 [2][29] Group 2 - The economic outlook for June suggests a low visibility macroeconomic environment, with A-share indices at historically high valuation percentiles, indicating potential for a volatile market with limited upward elasticity [3][50] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on specific sectors such as technology, food security, and high-dividend defensive sectors, as well as industry leaders with low exposure to U.S. exports and strong domestic demand [3][50] - The convertible bond market is expected to face challenges in upward valuation due to credit risk adjustments, suggesting a cautious approach to bond positioning while waiting for clearer market signals [4][44] Group 3 - The report notes that in May, the agricultural and electronic semiconductor-themed convertible bonds led the market, while the top ten declining bonds were primarily those with strong redemption or those that peaked and then fell [40][41] - The analysis of the convertible bond market indicates that the credit risk pricing feedback is relatively controllable, and it suggests a balanced allocation between low-priced debt-oriented bonds and growth-oriented equity bonds [4][44] - The report provides a specific convertible bond portfolio for June, including bonds from sectors such as new energy, cyclical industries, and electronics, highlighting their potential for performance [4][52]

调研纪要：未来几年，中国海油国内外产量将持续增长，主要来自渤海、圭亚那和巴西。公司追求相对 成本优势，不追求绝对成本下降。资本支出计划基于中长期油价假设，保持稳定预算和合理结构。公司 坚持油气并举、向气倾斜，推进天然气勘探，提高国内天然气产量。天然气项目稳产周期长、采收率 高、作业成本低，国内海气销售价格稳定。公司已建立完整技术体系，突破1500米超深水开发关键技 术，科技自主可控水平不断提高。 机构简介： 根据市场公开信息及6月4日披露的机构调研信息，知名私募久期投资近期对1家上市公司进行了调研， 相关名单如下： 1）中国海油 （上海久期投资有限公司参与公司现场参观） 上海久期投资有限公司（简称"久期投资"）是一家专注于固定收益类投资的阳光私募资产管理机构，成 立于2013年12月，2014年4月获得中国基金业协会颁发的私募基金管理人资质。公司产品条线分为固定 收益类、固收增强类和宏观策略类，通过债券、股票和黑色大宗商品市场的大类资产配置和价值发掘， 为投资者创造长期可持续的稳健回报。"固收+"产品以利率趋势判断下的信用策略为基础策略，根据宏 观资产轮动判断，选择合适的资产种类如利率、可转债、权益资产等，分 ...

昨日A股 5月26日，市场全天震荡调整，创业板指领跌，宁德时代跌近5%。截至收盘，沪指跌0.05%，深成指跌 0.41%，创业板指跌0.8%。沪深两市全天成交额1.01万亿，较上个交易日缩量1456亿。 盘面上，市场热点较为杂乱，个股涨多跌少，全市场超3700只个股上涨。从板块来看，核电股集体爆 发，IP经济概念股震荡走强，智能物流概念股持续活跃。下跌方面，医药股集体调整。板块方面，可控 核聚变、智能物流、PEEK材料、IP经济等板块涨幅居前，创新药、汽车整车、中药、维生素等板块跌 幅居前。 | 名称 | 最新点位 | 、涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3346.84 | -1.53(-0.05%) | | 深证指数 | 10091.16 | -41.25(-0.41%) | | 创业板指 | 2005 26 | -16.24(-0.8%) | | | 日期:5月26日 制图:21投资通 | | 1、中央汇金公司重磅会议！当好维护金融稳定的"压舱石" 据中央汇金投资责任有限公司网站，近日，中央汇金公司召开2025年党建与经营工作会议，总结2024年 党建与经营管理情况，部 ...

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a decline this week, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.61%, the S&P 500 down by 0.67%, and the Nasdaq decreasing by 1% [1] - The dollar index dropped by 0.82%, while copper and aluminum prices rose on the London Metal Exchange [1] Economic Events - Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods starting June 1, which negatively impacted European stock markets [1] - Recent bond auctions in Japan and the US were poorly received, raising concerns about global market liquidity [4][5] Investment Insights - Analysts are optimistic about sectors such as technology, high-dividend assets, and non-ferrous metals [8][11] - The potential for a decline in the dollar index is seen as beneficial for international non-ferrous metal prices [11] Upcoming Events - Japan will conduct several important bond auctions on May 28, June 3, and June 5, with the June 3 auction of 10-year bonds being particularly significant [4] - The 61st simulated stock trading competition is set to begin, with participants focusing on opportunities in controllable nuclear fusion and the pet economy [2][3]

在 2025上半年全球经济复苏动能分化、地缘博弈持续升温的复杂背景下，中国以消费回暖与科技突 破为引擎，推动经济结构性转型迈入新阶段——消费市场在政策刺激下加速回暖，新能源汽车、人工 智能等新兴产业引领全球技术变革，中美经贸关系因关税阶段性削减释放积极信号，资本市场在短期 震荡后逐步回归长期价值逻辑。在此机遇与挑战并存的关键时点， 5月23日，由九方智投控股 （9636.HK）旗下九方智投主办的"轻舟已过万重山"——九方金融研究所2025高端投资论坛拉开帷 幕。 "轻舟已过万重山"语出李白《早发白帝城》，原指轻舟疾行穿越三峡险峻山峦，隐喻克服重重障碍 后的豁达与超越。这一意象与当前中国经济环境高度契合——经历地缘博弈、供应链重构等"万重 山"后，市场正逐步迈向新平衡。九方金融研究所此次论坛，恰恰为市场参与者提供了锚定方向、共 话机遇的平台，既是对中国经济韧性与政策智慧的凝练，亦是对投资者穿越周期迷雾的鼓舞。 图为九方金融研究所 2025高端投资论坛现场 振兴股市让老百姓享受改革成果 是金融强国不二选择 中国资本市场的健康发展不仅是经济转型升级的关键支撑，同时也是实现金融强国战略的核心命题。 中国政法大学教授、 ...