Strategy - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has increased, with a current probability of 92% according to CME futures, leading to discussions on its impact on the U.S. and Chinese markets. The short-term effect is seen as positive for China, but this benefit may be limited and not the primary driver. Two ways to amplify this benefit include implementing more aggressive monetary and fiscal easing and identifying structural opportunities between the U.S. and China, particularly in sectors related to real estate and commodities that may benefit from increased demand due to the rate cut [5][10]. Macroeconomy - There is a significant market expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut, but internal divisions within the Fed suggest caution. The current economic risks in the U.S. include "stagflation," which a rate cut may not effectively address. The focus of monetary policy should remain on stabilizing inflation rather than succumbing to political pressures for short-term growth [10]. Strategy - A-shares are currently evaluated as being within a reasonable valuation range, with no signs of being overvalued. However, increased trading volume may lead to short-term volatility. Historical trends indicate that while short-term fluctuations may occur, they typically do not affect mid-term market trends. Investment recommendations include focusing on sectors with high performance and earnings validation, such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military industries, as well as financial sectors benefiting from increased retail investment [12]. Strategy - The A-share market has outperformed the Hong Kong market in the second half of the year, with significant increases in major indices. The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed the 3700 mark, and daily trading volumes have returned to over 2 trillion yuan. The positive performance is attributed to improved market liquidity and the effects of policies aimed at reducing competition. The report analyzes the strengths of both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks to help investors understand the fundamental performance of both markets [14].

Market Overview - The US dollar index strengthened, reaching an intraday high of 98.67 before closing up 0.43% at 98.62 [1][2] - Spot gold opened with a jump but fell throughout the day, hitting an intraday low of $3325.19 before closing down 0.29% at $3338.55 per ounce [1][2] - Spot silver rose by 0.56%, closing at $38.10 per ounce [1][2] Economic Indicators - The US August S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 53.3, the highest in 39 months, exceeding expectations of 49.5 and the previous value of 49.8 [3] - The US August S&P Global Services PMI preliminary value was 55.4, a two-month low, below expectations of 54.2 and the previous value of 55.7 [3] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending August 16 were 235,000, marking the largest increase in three months, above the expected 225,000 and the previous value of 224,000 [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 25%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 75% [4] - In October, the probability of maintaining rates is 13.3%, with a cumulative 25 basis point cut probability of 51.5% and a 50 basis point cut probability of 35.3% [4] Trading Sentiment - Recent strong S&P data indicates potential continued price increases, leading to a stronger dollar and slight pressure on gold, while silver shows resilience due to its industrial properties [5] - Market participants are awaiting comments from Powell at the Jackson Hole central bank conference to assess the validity of September rate cut expectations [5] - The baseline scenario suggests that the US may face "stagflation" due to tariff impacts, providing some support for precious metals, which are expected to continue high-level fluctuations [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the gold market is influenced by the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and geopolitical developments, with expectations of a potential new round of rate cuts supporting precious metals [1][2][4] - Galaxy Futures indicates that the recent rebound in the US PPI and strong S&P data suggest that prices may continue to rise, with a cautious market awaiting Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference [1][2] - BCA Research anticipates that gold will gain new upward momentum as the Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting rates in September, alongside a potential depreciation of the US dollar [4] Group 2 - Kitco Metals analysts note that despite a slight decline in gold prices before Powell's speech, there remains a strong bullish sentiment, with a critical support level at $3,300 per ounce [3] - The market's expectation for a rate cut in September has decreased from "almost certain" to 75%, indicating a lack of optimism towards monetary easing, which has been a significant resistance for gold prices [3] - Five Minerals Futures emphasizes the need to focus on the upcoming rate cut cycle, while also noting that the market is waiting for Powell's speech for potential insights into monetary policy [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The market is awaiting Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting on Friday to verify the reasonableness of bets on a September interest rate cut. Due to the sharp rebound in the US PPI and the resilience of retail data, there are concerns that Powell may adopt a hawkish stance, leading to cautious trading sentiment. However, the interference with the Fed's independence by Trump's call for Cook to resign has weakened the US dollar and provided a rebound opportunity for precious metals. In the future, the potential for the US to enter a "stagflation-like" situation under tariff shocks supports precious metals, and it is expected that precious metals will continue to trade in a high-range oscillation pattern. [2][3] - For copper, the market focuses on the future interest rate cut rhythm and Powell's speech at the "Global Central Bank Annual Meeting." Domestically, the anti-involution sentiment has subsided, and commodities have generally declined. Fundamentally, the supply of copper ore has been temporarily alleviated, but the increase in LME inventory and the potential inflow of imported goods may put pressure on prices. Demand remains weak, with low restocking enthusiasm from end-users. [5][9] - Alumina's price is reverting to fundamentals as market speculation cools. Although the overall supply-demand situation remains in surplus, short-term supply disruptions due to maintenance plans at some alumina plants may limit price declines. Attention should be paid to the support of the futures price from the expected regression of the basis after it turns positive. [11][13][15] - For electrolytic aluminum, the macro environment is affected by the progress of the Russia-Ukraine issue and the anticipation of Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. Domestically, the "anti-involution" sentiment is waning. Fundamentally, the increase in aluminum rod production and the decline in aluminum ingot factory inventories have reduced the pressure on social inventory, and low inventory levels may make domestic aluminum prices relatively more resistant to decline compared to the international market. [18][21] - In the case of casting aluminum alloy, the supply is tightening due to the shortage of scrap aluminum, production cuts in some factories, and reduced imports. Demand remains weak, with downstream enterprises mainly engaging in just-in-time procurement. [26][27] - Zinc prices are under pressure due to the continuous increase in domestic supply and weak terminal consumption, leading to a build-up in social inventory. [29][32] - Lead prices are likely to trade in a range due to weak supply and demand. The consumption of lead-acid batteries is sluggish, and the losses of secondary lead smelters are widening, leading to an expansion in production cuts. [35][36][39] - Nickel prices are expected to trade in a wide range due to the large supply surplus and the lack of clear short-term supply-demand contradictions. The increase in refined nickel imports in July did not result in a corresponding increase in domestic inventory, suggesting the accumulation of invisible inventory. [41][42][43] - Stainless steel prices are expected to trade in a wide range, with limited upward momentum due to weak demand and downward support from cost factors. The global economic outlook, tariff policies, and Fed decisions continue to influence the market. [47] - Industrial silicon prices are expected to trade in a range, with the core contradiction being the change in sentiment and fundamental expectations. The market is influenced by the prices of coking coal and polysilicon, and the potential increase in production by leading manufacturers at the end of the month. [50][51][52] - Polysilicon prices are expected to trade in the range of 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. Although the fundamental situation is bearish due to oversupply in August, the price is supported by cost factors. The futures price is recommended to be bought on dips. [54][55][56] - Carbonate lithium prices are expected to rebound after a significant decline. The market overreacted to negative news, but the supply-demand situation may tighten in September due to reduced imports. The price is recommended to be bought after a sufficient correction. [58][60][61] - Tin prices are expected to continue to trade in an oscillatory pattern. The market is in a state of tight balance with weak supply and demand. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the recovery of production in Myanmar is expected to be delayed until the fourth quarter. [63][65][66] Summary by Directory Precious Metals Market Review - London gold rose 0.94% to $3,347.335 per ounce, and London silver rose 1.44% to $37.855 per ounce. The Shanghai gold and silver futures contracts also closed higher. The US dollar index fell 0.05% to 98.218, the 10-year US Treasury yield declined to 4.2868%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.08% to 7.177. [2] Important News - Trump called on Fed Governor Cook to resign, and Cook refused. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that most officials believed it was appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged, but more officials were open to a September rate cut after the August 1 employment report. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 18.1%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is 81.9%. Israel has not responded to the ceasefire proposal from Hamas. [2] Logic Analysis - The market is waiting for Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. The interference with the Fed's independence has weakened the US dollar and supported precious metals. The potential for the US to enter a "stagflation-like" situation supports precious metals in the future. [3] Trading Strategy - Go long on dips near the 5-day moving average for single positions, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [3] Copper Market Review - The night session of the SHFE copper 2509 contract closed at 78,730 yuan/ton, up 0.19%, and the LME copper closed at $9,721 per ton, up 0.38%. The LME inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 156,300 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 593 tons to 270,500 tons. [5] Important News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported keeping interest rates unchanged. Codelco will lower its 2025 production guidance due to an accident at its El Teniente mine. China's imports of copper scrap, copper ore, and refined copper in July showed different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year. [5][7][8] Logic Analysis - The market focuses on the future interest rate cut rhythm and Powell's speech. Domestically, the anti-involution sentiment has subsided, and commodities have generally declined. Fundamentally, the supply of copper ore has been temporarily alleviated, but the increase in LME inventory and the potential inflow of imported goods may put pressure on prices. Demand remains weak, with low restocking enthusiasm from end-users. [9] Trading Strategy - Copper prices are under pressure due to short-term supply increases. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [9] Alumina Market Review - The night session of the alumina 2509 contract rose 46 yuan to 3,155 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions showed slight changes. [11] Important News - A large aluminum plant in the northwest made a large-scale spot purchase, which led to a slight decline in spot prices. The national alumina production capacity and operating rate increased slightly. The alumina warehouse receipts increased by 2,997 tons to 75,050 tons. Overseas, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded at a price of $369 per ton FOB Australia for September shipment. China's alumina exports and imports in July increased compared to the previous month and the same period last year. The import of bauxite also increased significantly. [11][12][13] Logic Analysis - The market speculation sentiment has cooled, and the price is reverting to fundamentals. The supply-demand situation remains in surplus, but short-term supply disruptions due to maintenance plans at some alumina plants may limit price declines. Attention should be paid to the support of the futures price from the expected regression of the basis after it turns positive. [13][15] Trading Strategy - Alumina prices are expected to trade in a weak oscillatory pattern. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [16] Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night session of the SHFE aluminum 2509 contract rose 70 yuan to 20,590 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions declined. [18] Important News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported keeping interest rates unchanged. There are discussions about a potential meeting between Trump, Putin, and Zelensky. The main market electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 0.6 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,529 tons to 62,938 tons. A 600,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia has entered the construction phase. China's aluminum ingot imports and exports in July showed different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year. A project in Inner Mongolia is expected to be completed by the end of the year. [18][19][21] Logic Analysis - The macro environment is affected by the progress of the Russia-Ukraine issue and the anticipation of Powell's speech. Domestically, the "anti-involution" sentiment is waning. Fundamentally, the increase in aluminum rod production and the decline in aluminum ingot factory inventories have reduced the pressure on social inventory, and low inventory levels may make domestic aluminum prices relatively more resistant to decline compared to the international market. [21] Trading Strategy - Aluminum prices are expected to trade in a weak oscillatory pattern in the short term. Consider a long SHFE aluminum and short LME aluminum arbitrage if the Russia-Ukraine issue continues to ease, and exit if the talks are not successful. Pay attention to the widening of the contango when the domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreases. Stay on the sidelines for options trading. [22] Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The night session of the casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 45 yuan to 20,090 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions remained stable. [24] Important News - A policy document may affect the recycling aluminum industry. The weighted average full cost of the Chinese casting aluminum alloy (ADC12) industry in July increased slightly compared to June, and the industry's theoretical profit increased. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three regions increased slightly. [26] Logic Analysis - The supply is tightening due to the shortage of scrap aluminum, production cuts in some factories, and reduced imports. Demand remains weak, with downstream enterprises mainly engaging in just-in-time procurement. [27] Trading Strategy - Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to trade in a weak oscillatory pattern. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [28] Zinc Market Review - The overnight LME zinc market rose 0.58% to $2,786 per ton, and the SHFE zinc 2510 contract rose 0.41% to 22,300 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Shanghai remained stable, and the downstream showed a wait-and-see attitude. [29] Important News - China's zinc concentrate imports in July increased significantly compared to the previous month and the same period last year. The exports of galvanized sheets increased slightly, while the exports of zinc oxide and die-cast zinc alloy decreased significantly. The safety inspections in northern lead-zinc mines have increased, but there is no direct impact on production for now. [29][30][31] Logic Analysis - The continuous increase in domestic supply and weak terminal consumption have led to a build-up in social inventory, putting pressure on zinc prices. [32] Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the domestic social inventory situation. If there is a significant build-up, zinc prices may decline further. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [33] Lead Market Review - The overnight LME lead market rose 0.33% to $1,980.5 per ton, and the SHFE lead 2510 contract rose 0.18% to 16,775 yuan/ton. The spot price of SMM1 lead declined, and the downstream battery production enterprises mainly made just-in-time purchases. [35] Important News - China's lead-acid battery imports and exports in July showed different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year. Some secondary lead smelters lowered their purchase prices, but the arrival of scrap lead was not significantly improved. The LME received a registration application for a new lead brand. [35] Logic Analysis - The consumption of lead-acid batteries is sluggish, and the losses of secondary lead smelters are widening, leading to an expansion in production cuts. The supply and demand are both weak, and lead prices are likely to trade in a range. [36][39] Trading Strategy - Trade lead prices in a range by selling high and buying low. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [39] Nickel Market Review - The overnight LME nickel price fell $15 to $15,045 per ton, and the LME nickel inventory increased by 18 tons to 209,346 tons. The SHFE nickel main contract NI2510 rose 180 yuan to 120,370 yuan/ton. The premiums of different nickel products showed different changes. [41] Important News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that only two officials voted against keeping interest rates unchanged. NATO discussed Ukraine's security guarantee issue. The global refined nickel supply was in surplus in June and from January to June. [41][42] Logic Analysis - The large supply surplus limits the upward movement of nickel prices. The increase in refined nickel imports in July did not result in a corresponding increase in domestic inventory, suggesting the accumulation of invisible inventory. The short-term supply-demand situation is balanced, and prices are expected to trade in a wide range. [43][45] Trading Strategy - Sell out-of-the-money put options. [45] Stainless Steel Market Review - The main contract SS2510 remained unchanged at 12,830 yuan/ton. The spot prices of cold-rolled and hot-rolled stainless steel remained stable. [47] Important News - A 600,000-set carbon steel and stainless steel high-end precision casting project started construction. The stainless steel inventory in Foshan decreased slightly. [47] Logic Analysis - The global economic outlook, tariff policies, and Fed decisions continue to influence the market. The concentration of steel mill maintenance in August and the subsequent planned resumptions have increased the sales pressure. The increase in the nickel iron price provides cost support, but the lack of demand limits the upward movement of prices. [47] Trading Strategy - Stainless steel prices are expected to trade in a wide range. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage. [48] Industrial Silicon Market Review - The industrial silicon futures price declined due to the fall in coking coal and polysilicon prices. The spot prices also decreased. [51] Important News - A new product of a subsidiary of Xin'an Co., Ltd. was included in the list of excellent industrial new products in Zhejiang Province. [51] Logic Analysis - The core contradiction in the industrial silicon market is the change in sentiment and fundamental expectations. The market is influenced by the prices of coking coal and polysilicon, and the potential increase in production by leading manufacturers at the end of the month. The supply and demand situation is relatively balanced, and prices are expected to trade in a range. [52] Trading Strategy - Trade industrial silicon prices in the range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton by buying on dips near the lower end of the range. Consider a reverse arbitrage between the 11th and 12th contracts. [52] Polysilicon Market Review - The polysilicon futures price fell and then rebounded after the limit-down of lithium carbonate.，The spot prices increased slightly. [54][55] Important News - Trump stated that his government will not approve photovoltaic or wind power projects. [55] Logic Analysis - The polysilicon production in August is expected to be in surplus, but the price is supported by cost factors. The previous low price level provides strong support, and the high price level is limited by the potential large-scale selling for delivery. The futures price is recommended to be bought on dips. [55] Trading Strategy - Buy polysilicon futures on dips in the range of 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. Consider a positive arbitrage between the 2511 and 2512 contracts. Sell out-of-the-money put options and buy call options. [56] Carbonate Lithium Market Review - The carbonate lithium futures price hit the limit-down, and the spot prices remained stable. [58] Important News - A Chilean lithium producer expects an increase in sales in the third quarter and plans to submit an environmental research report for a lithium project next year. The government exposed two cases of tax fraud in the "new three" fields. The retail and wholesale sales of new energy vehicles in August showed growth compared to the same period last year and the previous month. [58][60] Logic Analysis - The sharp decline in carbonate lithium prices was due to market overreaction to negative news and the exit of large funds. However, the supply-demand situation may tighten in

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Derivatives Daily Report [2] - Date: August 21, 2025 [2] - Research Institute: Commodity Research Institute [1][24][33][44][52] - Researchers: Che Hongyun, Wang Luchen CFA [2] Group 2: Market Review - Precious Metals Market: London gold slightly retraced last night's gains, trading around $3339; London silver had narrow fluctuations, trading around $37.8. Driven by the overseas market, the main Shanghai gold futures contract rose 0.3% to 775.12 yuan/gram, and the main Shanghai silver futures contract rose 0.63% to 9162 yuan/kg [3] - Dollar Index: The dollar index moved sideways, trading around 98.26 [4] - US Treasury Yield: The 10-year US Treasury yield edged higher, trading around 4.3% [5] - RMB Exchange Rate: The RMB continued its strong trend against the US dollar, trading around 7.177 [6] Group 3: Important Information - Trump Administration Move: Trump's camp officials called for an investigation into Fed Governor Cook over mortgage transactions, and Trump demanded Cook's resignation, while Cook refused [7] - Fed July Meeting Minutes: Many participants said the current interest rate is not far from the neutral level, and most officials thought it appropriate to keep rates unchanged. "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos said it reinforced existing information [7] - Fed Watch: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in September is 18.1%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point cut is 81.9%. In October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 8%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut is 46.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut is 45.5% [7] - Geopolitical Conflict: Israel decided not to respond to Hamas' ceasefire proposal for the time being [8] Group 4: Logical Analysis - Market Sentiment: The market is waiting for Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday to verify the bet on a September rate cut. Due to the sharp rebound in US PPI and resilient retail data, there are concerns that Powell may take a hawkish stance, so trading sentiment is cautious [10] - Impact on Precious Metals: Trump's demand for Cook's resignation has interfered with the Fed's independence, weakening the dollar and giving precious metals a chance to rebound. In the future, the risk of the US entering "stagflation" due to tariffs will support precious metals, and they are expected to remain range-bound at high levels [10] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips [11] - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [12] - Options: Temporarily stay on the sidelines [13] Group 6: Data Reference - Dollar Index and Precious Metals: Charts show the relationship between the dollar index and London gold/silver [15][17] - Real Yield and Precious Metals: Charts show the relationship between real yields and London gold/silver [21][23] - Domestic and Overseas Futures: Charts show the relationship between domestic and overseas gold/silver futures [22] - Futures and Spot: Charts show the relationship between futures and spot prices of gold/silver [25] - Domestic and Overseas Price Differences: Charts show the price differences between domestic and overseas gold/silver [32] - Gold-Silver Ratio: Charts show the gold-silver ratio on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and Comex [38][40] - ETF Holdings: Charts show the holdings of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF [42] - Futures Open Interest: Charts show the open interest of gold/silver futures [45][46] - Futures Inventory: Charts show the inventory of Shanghai gold/silver futures [47][48] - Trading Volume: Charts show the trading volume of Shanghai gold/silver futures [50][51] - TD Data: Charts show the deferred fees and delivery volumes of gold/silver TD [53][54][58] - Treasury Yields and Break-Even Inflation: Charts show the relationship between Treasury yields and break-even inflation rates [55]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The annual "Jackson Hole" global central bank conference will take place from August 21 to 23, focusing on "Labor Market Transformation: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy" [1][3] - Recent data indicates a significant cooling in the U.S. labor market, with non-farm payrolls being revised down by over 250,000 for May and June, and only 73,000 jobs added in July [3][4] - The U.S. inflation data shows mixed signals, with the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.3% in July, the largest increase since January, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) surging by 0.9%, the highest monthly increase in over three years [4][6] Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - Following the release of July's non-farm data, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September have shifted significantly, with an 86.1% probability for a 25 basis point cut [6][11] - Goldman Sachs predicts the Federal Reserve will cut rates three times this year, each by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate down to a range of 3% to 3.25% [6][11] - Market participants are heavily betting on rate cuts, with 325,000 options contracts betting on a 50 basis point cut, indicating a potential profit of up to $100 million if realized [6][10] Group 3: Market Reactions - Historically, the "Jackson Hole week" has provided positive returns for U.S. stock investors, with the S&P 500 index showing a median weekly gain of 0.8% [9] - Concerns exist regarding the high price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500, currently at 25.5, the highest since 2000, which could lead to market volatility if expectations are not met [9][10] - Analysts suggest that if Powell maintains a hawkish stance, it could negatively impact the market, although the overall effect may be manageable [10][11]

一年一度的"杰克逊霍尔"全球央行年会将于当地时间8月21日至23日在美国怀俄明州的同名度假胜地举 行。今年的主题为"劳动力市场转型：人口结构、生产率与宏观经济政策"。其中美联储主席鲍威尔的演 讲将是最受瞩目的议程之一，投资者希望通过此次年会捕捉央行对未来形势的研判，探寻政策路径的确 定性信号，交易员们也乘机大举押注美联储即将重启降息。 研判经济形势 该会议由堪萨斯城联储银行主办，最初为农业研讨会，后逐渐演变为全球货币政策讨论平台，成为全球 货币政策的风向标。投资者希望借此捕捉各国央行对未来形势的研判，探寻政策路径的确定性信号。 今年杰克逊霍尔年会的主题是"劳动力市场转型：人口结构、生产率与宏观经济政策"。业界人士指出， 这一主题与美国近期劳动力市场出现的急剧变化紧密相关。 从数据看，美国5月至7月的劳动力市场出现急剧降温。5月和6月的非农就业数据被大幅下修超过25万； 7月的劳动力市场则继续降温，仅新增7.3万个非农就业岗位。工资增长也从2022年6%的年率放缓至约 3.9%。这些数据不但让市场大感意外，也使得美国联邦公开市场委员会内部出现明显分歧，两名理事 在7月的会议上就曾投票支持降息。 美国的通胀数据则 ...

大宗商品研究所 贵金属研发报告 贵金属衍生品日报 2025 年 8 月 20 日 研究所副所长：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询号：Z0017510 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 m.cn 贵金属衍生品日报 【市场回顾】 1.贵金属市场：今天白天，贵金属走势分化，伦敦金小幅回补前日跌幅，当前 交投于 3323 美元附近，伦敦银再度下跌，当前交投于 37.1 美元附近。受外盘驱 动，沪金主力合约收跌 0.35%，报 772.68 元/克，沪银主力合约收跌 1.86%，报 9042 元/千克。 2.美元指数：美元指数窄幅波动，当前交投于 98.3 附近。 3.美债收益率：10 年美债收益率高位盘整，当前交投于 4.32%附近。 4.人民币汇率：人民币兑美元汇率小幅走强，当前交投于 7.179 附近。 【重要资讯】 邮箱： wangluchen_qh@chinastock.co 1.地缘冲突：①俄乌：知情人士：白宫考虑在匈牙利举办俄乌领导人峰会。② 美国与欧洲将立即着手为乌克兰提供安全保障，全面 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and others. It provides market reviews, important information, logical analyses, and trading strategies for each metal. Overall, due to factors such as geopolitical conflicts, Fed policies, and supply - demand fundamentals, the market is in a state of flux, and different trading strategies are recommended for different metals, mainly including temporary observation, waiting for new entry opportunities, and specific operations like high - selling and low - buying in certain ranges [2][6][11]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold closed down 0.5% at $3316.035 per ounce, London silver down 1.8% at $37.32 per ounce. Affected by the external market, Shanghai gold and silver futures also declined. The US dollar index rose 0.1% to 98.26, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell slightly to 4.3038%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.03% to 7.183 [2]. - **Important Information**: There are considerations for a Russia - Ukraine leaders' summit, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates is high. For example, in September, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 86.1% [2]. - **Logical Analysis**: The unexpected rise in US PPI and strong retail data have dampened the market's expectations of interest rate cuts. Geopolitical tensions are expected to ease. However, the US may face "stagflation - like" situation, so it's advisable to wait and see for new entry opportunities [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily observe in unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [2][4]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78,550 yuan per ton, down 0.23%. The LME copper closed at $9,684.5 per ton, down 0.69%. The LME inventory decreased by 450 tons to 155,100 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 873 tons to 269,900 tons [6]. - **Important Information**: Two US copper manufacturers raised prices by 5%, and First Quantum Mining started a $1.25 - billion expansion project in Zambia [6]. - **Logical Analysis**: The ore supply shortage has been temporarily alleviated, the LME inventory increase has slowed down, and domestic imports may increase, putting pressure on prices. Downstream demand shows different trends, with improved acceptance of prices [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily observe in unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [4][10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of alumina 2509 contract fell to 3,087 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed declines or remained flat [11]. - **Important Information**: An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for alumina, and some alumina enterprises have maintenance plans. Alumina exports and ore imports increased [11][12]. - **Logical Analysis**: Market speculation has cooled, and the alumina market is in a state of oversupply. However, short - term supply is not significantly excessive due to maintenance plans [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may be in a high - level consolidation in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [13][15]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract fell to 20,500 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions rose [17]. - **Important Information**: The US expanded the steel and aluminum tariff list, and there are considerations for a Russia - Ukraine - US leaders' summit. Aluminum inventory remained stable [17][19]. - **Logical Analysis**: The resolution of the Russia - Ukraine issue may lead to changes in sanctions on Russian aluminum. The domestic inventory pressure has decreased, and the downstream has shown more active inventory - building [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: In unilateral trading, the price may decline with the external market; in arbitrage, short - term long Shanghai aluminum and short LME aluminum, and exit if the talks are not successful; observe in option trading [21]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell to 20,055 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions were mostly flat or slightly increased [24]. - **Important Information**: Four - ministry policy affects the recycled aluminum industry, and the industry's profit has improved in July. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased [24][25]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and some factories have reduced production. The demand from downstream die - casting enterprises is weak [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may decline with aluminum prices in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [26]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc fell 0.5% to $2,770 per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2510 fell 0.29% to 22,180 yuan per ton. The spot market trading was mainly among traders [28]. - **Important Information**: A zinc smelter in the northwest has a maintenance plan, and Tianjin has transportation restrictions [28]. - **Logical Analysis**: The domestic supply has increased, the terminal consumption is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating, putting pressure on prices [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold profitable short positions in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [30]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead fell 0.33% to $1,974 per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2510 fell 0.56% to 16,720 yuan per ton. The spot market trading was light [32][34]. - **Important Information**: A small - scale recycled lead smelter in the south plans to resume production [35]. - **Logical Analysis**: The consumption has not improved significantly, but the cost provides some support for the price [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try high - selling and low - buying within a range in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [36]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel fell to $15,060 per ton, and the Shanghai nickel NI2510 fell to 120,320 yuan per ton. The spot premiums of different types of nickel changed [38]. - **Important Information**: There are plans for a Russia - Ukraine - US leaders' summit [38]. - **Logical Analysis**: No detailed logical analysis provided in the text. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may fluctuate widely in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading; sell out - of - the - money put options [40]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2509 contract fell to 12,825 yuan per ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are in a certain range [42]. - **Important Information**: A German company proposed a tariff exemption for SMEs' steel imports, and the US expanded the steel and aluminum tariff list. A nickel - iron factory sold high - nickel iron at a certain price [42]. - **Logical Analysis**: Global economic prospects, tariff policies, and Fed decisions affect the market. The price is expected to fluctuate widely due to lack of demand drive and cost support [43][44]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may fluctuate widely in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading [45]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 8,625 yuan per ton, down 1.26%. Most spot prices remained stable [47]. - **Important Information**: Six - department held a photovoltaic industry symposium [47]. - **Logical Analysis**: The core contradiction lies in market sentiment and fundamental change expectations. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - and medium - term [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price may decline during the day; consider reverse arbitrage for the 11th and 12th contracts [50]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract closed at 52,260 yuan per ton, down 0.53%. The spot prices were stable and showed a slight increase [52]. - **Important Information**: Six - department held a photovoltaic industry symposium [52]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply is in excess in August, but the cost provides support. The price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and there may be future policy benefits [53]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips within a certain price range in unilateral trading; conduct positive arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts; sell out - of - the - money put options [53]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2511 fell to 87,540 yuan per ton. The spot prices of electric and industrial carbonates increased [55]. - **Important Information**: There are developments in lithium - battery raw material imports, corporate production resumptions, and expansions. The US included lithium in the key enforcement industries [55]. - **Logical Analysis**: The spot market supply is tight, and the supply - demand gap may widen in September, supporting the price. The price may decline due to market sentiment and then rise again [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading; sell out - of - the - money put options for the 2511 contract [56]. Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin 2509 closed at 268,850 yuan per ton, up 0.88%. The spot prices adjusted downwards, and the trading was not active [58]. - **Important Information**: Peru and Indonesia released export data of tin [58][59]. - **Logical Analysis**: The LME tin inventory decreased, and the tin ore supply is tight. The industry is in a state of tight balance, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption recovery [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may continue to fluctuate in unilateral trading; observe in option trading [59].

该会议由堪萨斯城联储银行主办，最初为农业研讨会，后逐渐演变为全球货币政策讨论平台，成为全球货币政策 的风向标。投资者希望借此捕捉各国央行对未来形势的研判，探寻政策路径的确定性信号。 今年的主题为"劳动力市场转型：人口结构、生产率与宏观经济政策"。其中美联储主席鲍威尔的演讲将是最受瞩 目的议程之一。 在7月非农数据公布后，市场对美联储降息的预期发生了大幅转变，后者在9月份重启其降息周期越来越确定。不 过，也有机构提醒，美国通胀数据表现分化，美联储降息幅度预期有所反复。此前公布的工业品出厂价格指数就 远超预期，导致一些交易员一度降低了预期。 交易员们正大举涌入期权押注，认为美联储下个月将大幅降息超过25个基点。其中押注降息50基点的期权合约高 达32.5万份，权利金成本约1000万美元，若届时与实际结果相符，这些头寸将获利高达1亿美元。 截至本文发稿，据芝加哥商品交易所的"美联储观察"最新预测，美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为13.9%，降息25 个基点的概率为86.1%；美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为6.5%，累计降息25个基点的概率为47.5%，累计降息50 个基点的概率为46%。 据新华社报道，一年一度的" ...