老铁们中午好，我是帮主郑重，专注中长线的财经老炮！今天上午的A股有点意思，沪指高开低走跌了0.34%，深成指、创业板指也跟着调整，但全市场超 3200只个股上涨，这"指数跌、个股涨"的分化行情，你看懵了吗？ 先划重点数据，看懂盘面真相： • 沪深京三市半日成交额10325亿元，比昨天缩量2849亿！资金开始变得谨慎，观望情绪很明显； • 军工装备、商业航天直接爆发，航天环宇20CM涨停，中天火箭、中船防务也封板，妥妥的日内主线； • 锂板块全线崩了！盛新锂能、融捷股份连续两跌停，天齐锂业、赣锋锂业逼近跌停，海南板块也冲高回落，海马汽车差点跌停。 第三，仓位控制很关键，缩量行情下别满仓押注，留着子弹，等确定性信号出现再出手更稳妥。 互动2：你觉得午后军工能继续领涨吗？扣"1=能""2=不能"，看看谁的眼光准！ 帮主20年经验总结：震荡市拼的不是胆量，是耐心。现在市场不缺机会，但缺不乱跟风的定力，中长线来看，那些有业绩支撑、有政策利好的赛道，短期波 动都是上车的"小插曲"。 互动3：你午后打算加仓、减仓还是不动？点赞关注，评论区说说你的操作计划，帮主帮你把把关！ 我是帮主郑重，专注中长线不追涨杀跌。午后行情变化快 ...

一轮牛市，人们只会记得最后的"疯"，很少有人记得它之前往往是漫长、枯燥、甚至伴随质疑声的"慢"。 2015年的疯牛，真正的起点在2013年； 2021年大家口口声声说是牛市，但上证指数全年几乎横着走，赚钱效应主要来自中小盘和赛道股。 今天的A股，又一次站在类似的阶段： 指数不算耀眼，情绪时冷时热，但结构已经发生了关键变化。 我的核心判断是： 这轮牛市尚未结束，仍处在从"慢热"走向"发酵"的阶段，未来3个月，A股有较大概率走出类似2014年底那种"先挖坑、再 拉升"的节奏，春节前后或是情绪爆点。 下面我们从资金、政策、结构和时间节奏四个维度，把这件事讲清楚。 一、情绪冰冷，往往不是牛市结束，而是主升浪的酝酿期 很多人这两年最大的感受是： "指数没涨多少，我的账户怎么反而更难做了？" "明明新闻天天说利好，怎么盘面老是阴晴不定？" 如果只盯着指数，你确实很难判断牛熊。 从几个关键"现象"看，目前更符合"牛市中段，而非尾声"的特征： 散户参与度并不高 新开户数据温和，没有出现2015年那种开户潮。 银行存款搬家迹象有限，居民资金并未大规模杀入股市。 社交网络上"炒股一夜翻倍"的故事极少，讨论热度远未"泛滥"。 场内 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank carried out 300 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 110 billion yuan on the day. The 11 - month LPR quote remained unchanged, and the central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy [3][4]. - The market sentiment was cautious, with the stock index oscillating and closing down. The macro - level is a mix of positives and negatives. The market lacks a core driving force, and there are differences in market expectations. The stock index is expected to continue the oscillating pattern with support at the bottom and pressure upwards [6]. 3. Key Points by Category Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The central bank conducted 300 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an operating rate of 1.40%, with a net investment of 110 billion yuan after 190 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [3]. - The 11 - month LPR remained unchanged, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR at 3.5%. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy [4]. - Interest rates of various varieties changed, such as DRO01 at 1.37% (- 5.67bp), DR007 at 1.49% (- 2.74bp), etc. [3] Stock Index and Market Conditions - The stock indexes fell, with the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 down 0.51% to 4564.9, the Shanghai 50 down 0.4% to 3008.3, the CSI 500 down 0.85% to 7061.9, and the CSI 1000 down 0.63% to 7340.4. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.7082 trillion yuan, a decrease of 17.7 billion yuan [6]. - The market sentiment was cautious, and the stock index oscillated and closed down. The market lacks a core driving force, and there are differences in market expectations. The stock index is expected to continue the oscillating pattern [6]. Futures Market - Futures prices of different varieties changed, such as IF down 0.6%, IH down 0.3%, IC down 0.7%, and IM down 0.6%. Trading volumes and open interests also had different changes [5]. - The premium and discount rates of different futures contracts varied, for example, IF's premium rate for the current - month contract was 55.56%, and IH's discount rate for the current - month contract was - 3.76% [7].

Market Overview - A-shares are experiencing a continued adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.88% at 3857.24, the Shenzhen Component down 2.72% at 12627.85, and the ChiNext down 3.18% at 2945.61, as of November 21 [3] - The total trading volume across the three markets reached 13,174 billion, an increase of 2,004 billion compared to the previous day, with over 4,900 stocks declining [3] Sector Performance - The China Shipbuilding Industry is active, with stocks like Jiuzhiyang hitting the daily limit and others like China Shipbuilding Defense and Kunshan Intelligent rising over 6% [3] - Conversely, the energy metal sector saw significant declines, with companies such as Ganfeng Lithium and Tibet Mining hitting their daily limit down [3] Regulatory and Market Sentiment - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced adjustments to trading fees and limits for lithium carbonate futures, which may temper the recent bullish sentiment in the market [3] - According to CITIC Futures, the current supply-demand dynamics favor a quicker destocking of lithium carbonate, but the recent regulatory changes may cool investor enthusiasm and increase volatility risks [3] Economic Insights - Yang Delong, Chief Economist at Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund, suggests that the recent market fluctuations are typical as investors take profits near year-end, but this does not indicate the end of the structural market rally [4] - The sales of equity funds have shown a notable recovery, indicating that more investors are entering the stock market seeking opportunities, especially given low returns on bank deposits and wealth management products [4] - Yang anticipates that the Shanghai Composite Index could trade above 4,000 points by 2026, reflecting a potential upward trend after the current adjustments [4] Risk Assessment - Bohai Securities reports that the current market adjustment is primarily due to external risk releases, but the overall risk remains moderate [5] - The regulatory emphasis on preventing extreme market fluctuations suggests that there is no strong basis for a sustained decline, and the recent adjustments may provide a window for capital reallocation [5]

Core Insights - The overall net inflow of stock ETFs reached 9 billion yuan on November 20, with a total inflow of nearly 28.5 billion yuan for the week from November 17 to November 20 [1][3]. Fund Inflows - The top five sectors for net inflow included Hang Seng Technology (2.35 billion yuan), Semiconductors (1.15 billion yuan), Sci-Tech 50 Index (1.08 billion yuan), Hong Kong Internet (890 million yuan), and Gold (870 million yuan) [3]. - The leading fund company, E Fund, reported a total ETF size of 810.53 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 1.57 billion yuan on November 20, and an increase of 209.88 billion yuan since 2025 [3]. Fund Outflows - The top five sectors for net outflow included the CSI 300 Index (1.2 billion yuan), New Energy (910 million yuan), Banks (600 million yuan), Computers (250 million yuan), and Media (250 million yuan) [3][8]. - The Securities ETF, Bank ETF, and Battery ETF were among the largest outflow products, with the CSI 300 ETFs experiencing significant net outflows [8]. Market Trends - The current A-share market is experiencing a technology-led structural market, with a strong long-term outlook for sectors such as semiconductors, innovative technology products, and innovative pharmaceuticals [8][9]. - The market is expected to focus more on the 2026 economic outlook as year-end approaches, with technology sectors showing clearer investment opportunities [9].

Group 1 - On November 20, the overall net inflow of stock ETFs reached 9 billion yuan, with a total inflow of nearly 28.5 billion yuan since November 17 [1][2] - The top five sectors for inflow included Hang Seng Technology (2.35 billion yuan), Semiconductors (1.15 billion yuan), and the Sci-Tech 50 Index (1.08 billion yuan) [2] - The top five sectors for outflow were the CSI 300 Index (1.2 billion yuan), New Energy (910 million yuan), and Banking (600 million yuan) [2] Group 2 - As of November 20, the latest scale of E Fund's ETF reached 810.53 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 1.57 billion yuan on the previous day [2] - The net inflow for E Fund's China Concept Internet ETF was 680 million yuan, while the Hang Seng Technology ETF saw a net inflow of 320 million yuan [2] - Huaxia Fund's Sci-Tech 50 ETF and Hang Seng Technology Index ETF had the highest net inflows of 759 million yuan and 706 million yuan, respectively [3] Group 3 - The leading ETFs for net inflow included the CSI 500 ETF, Sci-Tech 50 ETF, and CSI 1000 ETF, while popular thematic ETFs like Securities ETF and Banking ETF experienced significant outflows [4][6] - The net outflow from the Securities ETF was 505 million yuan, and the Banking ETF saw a net outflow of 433 million yuan [6] - Market analysts suggest that the current A-share market is experiencing a technology-led structural market, with a strong long-term outlook for sectors like semiconductors and innovative technologies [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The stock ETF market in China has seen significant inflows, with a total of 90 billion yuan on November 20, and nearly 285 billion yuan since November 17, indicating a trend of "buying on dips" in the market [2][3][4]. Fund Inflows - On November 20, the overall net inflow for stock ETFs (including cross-border ETFs) reached 90 billion yuan, bringing the total scale to 4.57 trillion yuan [5]. - The top five sectors for inflows included Hang Seng Technology (23.5 billion yuan), Semiconductors (11.5 billion yuan), Sci-Tech 50 Index (10.8 billion yuan), Hong Kong Internet (8.9 billion yuan), and Gold (8.7 billion yuan) [5]. - The leading fund companies included E Fund, with a total ETF scale of 810.53 billion yuan and a net inflow of 15.7 billion yuan on November 20 [5]. Fund Outflows - The top five sectors for outflows were the CSI 300 Index (-12.0 billion yuan), New Energy (-9.1 billion yuan), Banks (-6.0 billion yuan), Computers (-2.5 billion yuan), and Media (-2.5 billion yuan) [5]. - Popular theme ETFs such as Securities ETFs, Bank ETFs, and Battery ETFs experienced significant outflows, with multiple CSI 300 ETFs leading the outflow rankings [10]. Investment Trends - The current A-share market is undergoing a technology-led structural market, with a strong long-term outlook for sectors like semiconductors, innovative technology products, and innovative pharmaceuticals [12]. - The "anti-involution" trend is creating structural opportunities in sectors like new energy and is expected to reshape the overall manufacturing ecosystem, with a focus on semiconductors, new energy smart vehicles, and biopharmaceuticals [12]. - As the year-end approaches, institutional funds are expected to focus more on the 2026 economic outlook, with a clearer investment direction in the technology sector and traditional manufacturing with improving profit expectations [12].

Core Insights - The performance of convertible bond funds has significantly outperformed other investment products in the capital market, with the "Southern Changyuan Convertible Bond A" fund leading with a return of 38.09% this year [2] - Convertible bond funds have become the dominant players in the bond fund market, occupying 6 out of the top 30 positions in terms of returns, and accounting for 19 out of the top 30 funds overall [2] - Private equity convertible bond funds have also shown impressive performance, with some achieving annualized returns exceeding 70% without any negative returns reported [2] Group 1: Performance Analysis - The average net value growth rate of convertible bond funds has surpassed 20% this year, significantly higher than the overall bond fund average of 2.13% [6] - Among the top 50 bond funds, 29 positions are held by convertible bond funds, showcasing their dual investment advantages in both equity and debt [6] - The convertible bond market has seen a 41% increase in fund size in the third quarter, reaching 133.4 billion yuan [4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The "strong stock, stable bond" market environment has provided an ideal backdrop for convertible bonds, with the stock market's upward momentum driving the rebound of convertible bonds [5] - The characteristics of convertible bonds, which offer downside protection and unlimited upside potential, make them particularly attractive during market volatility [5] - The acceleration of forced redemptions in the convertible bond market has created opportunities for active strategies, allowing investors to capitalize on predictable outcomes [9] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Public funds tend to have more restrictions on individual bond selection due to risk control and liquidity requirements, while private funds have greater flexibility, potentially leading to higher returns [7] - The performance of private equity convertible bond products can vary significantly, with top performers achieving remarkable returns, but also carrying higher risks and lower transparency [6][7] - Investors are advised to focus on selecting high-quality management products rather than engaging in direct trading, especially in a volatile market environment [10]

11月19日，A股市场涨跌分化，国证自由现金流指数触底回升，现涨约0.5%，成分股海陆重工、春 风动力涨停，中集集团、中国海油等跟涨。相关ETF方面，同类规模最大的自由现金流ETF（159201） 近8天获得连续资金净流入，合计"吸金"13.16亿元。 自由现金流ETF（159201）紧密跟踪国证自由现金流指数，经流动性、行业、ROE稳定性筛选后， 选取自由现金流为正且占比高的股票，指数质地高，抗风险能力强，适合底仓配置，满足长线投资配置 需求。基金管理费年费率为0.15%，托管费年费率为0.05%，均为市场最低费率水平，最大程度让利投 资者。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 瑞银与摩根士丹利近期发布的2026年中国股市展望均显示，在政策支持、科技创新产业不断发展、 资金流入等多重利好驱动下，中国股市的结构性改善有望延续。虽然指数层面大幅提升估值倍数的 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US government's potential reopening boosted the capital market, increasing expectations of further overseas liquidity release, leading to a stronger performance of stock indices with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly breaking through a new high [7]. - After the cooling of AI and chip sectors since October, the lithium - battery sector took over and led the rally, supporting the strong performance of stock indices [7]. - The current macro - level situation is a mix of bullish and bearish factors, lacking a core driving force. There are disagreements in the market about whether the valuation of technology stocks will further increase and whether the market can shift from a structural to a full - fledged slow - bull market. Short - term market disagreements are expected to be digested through index fluctuations, and new driving factors are needed for further upward movement [7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Money Market - DRO01 closed at 1.32 with a - 9.93bp change, DR007 at 1.48 with a - 1.22bp change, GC001 at 0.98 with a - 56.50bp change, GC007 at 1.47 with a - 3.00bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.58 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.41 with a 0.26bp change, 5 - year treasury at 1.58 with a 1.54bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.81 with a 0.46bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.09 with a 2.00bp change [4]. - The central bank conducted 190 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 92.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 97.2 billion yuan. This week, 495.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 78.3 billion, 117.5 billion, 65.5 billion, 92.8 billion, and 141.7 billion maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [4]. - The central bank's Q3 2025 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report stated that it will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, use various tools to keep social financing conditions relatively loose, improve the monetary policy framework, and strengthen policy implementation and transmission. It also aims to promote a reasonable recovery of prices [4]. Stock Index Market - The CSI 300 rose 1.21% to 4702.1, the SSE 50 rose 0.96% to 3073.7, the CSI 500 rose 1.55% to 7355.3, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.39% to 7590.6. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.042 trillion yuan, an increase of 96.9 billion yuan from the previous day [6]. - Most industry sectors rose, with energy metals, batteries, fertilizers, precious metals, power equipment, non - metallic materials, non - ferrous metals, chemical raw materials, chemical products, and small metals leading the gains. Only railway and highway, banking, and power sectors declined [6]. - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures contracts generally decreased. For example, IF trading volume decreased by 7.3% and open interest by 5.1%, IH trading volume by 2.2% and open interest by 1.2%, IC trading volume by 9.2% and open interest by 7.4%, and IM trading volume by 11.9% and open interest by 5.5% [6]. Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount - IF premium rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 8.22%, 5.41%, 3.44%, and 3.58% respectively [8]. - IH premium rates for different contracts were 1.58%, 1.60%, 0.90%, and 0.77% respectively [8]. - IC premium rate for the current - month contract was 12.34% [8]. - IM premium rates for different contracts were 14.77%, 14.98%, 13.05%, and 12.76% respectively [8].