Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that China's fiscal revenue and expenditure have shown modest growth in the first eight months of 2025, with a slight increase in tax revenue and a more significant rise in non-tax revenue [1][2][3] Group 2 - From January to August 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 148.198 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.3%. Tax revenue was 121.085 billion yuan, with a marginal increase of 0.02%, while non-tax revenue was 27.113 billion yuan, growing by 1.5% [1] - In August 2025, the national general public budget revenue continued its growth trend, increasing by 2% year-on-year. The cumulative growth rate for the first eight months improved by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - The cumulative growth of national tax revenue turned positive for the first time in 2025, with specific increases in domestic value-added tax (3.2%), domestic consumption tax (2%), corporate income tax (0.3%), and individual income tax (8.9%) [1] - The tax revenue growth was supported by a stable economic performance and an active capital market, with tax revenue in July and August exceeding 5% [2] - The manufacturing and financial sectors showed robust tax revenue growth, with manufacturing accounting for over 30% of total tax revenue and experiencing a growth rate above 5%. High-end manufacturing sectors, such as railway and aerospace, saw tax revenue growth exceeding 30% [2] - From January to August 2025, the national general public budget expenditure reached 179.324 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.1%. Key areas of expenditure growth included education, science and technology, social security, and health [3] - Local government special bonds and other long-term bonds contributed to a significant increase in government fund budget expenditure, which grew by 30% due to the issuance and utilization of these funds [3]

Core Viewpoint - The overall fiscal revenue in China has shown stability and growth in the first eight months of 2025, reflecting a positive economic trend, with tax revenue turning from negative to positive for the first time this year [3][4]. Fiscal Revenue - The total general public budget revenue reached 148,198 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [3]. - Tax revenue amounted to 121,085 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.02% year-on-year, marking the first positive growth in tax revenue this year [3][4]. - The four major tax categories all experienced growth: - Domestic VAT: approximately 47,000 billion yuan, up 3.2% [5]. - Corporate income tax: approximately 32,000 billion yuan, up 0.3%, indicating a potential improvement in corporate profitability [5]. - Domestic consumption tax: approximately 12,000 billion yuan, up 2% [5]. - Personal income tax: approximately 11,000 billion yuan, up 8.9%, linked to increased property income for certain demographics [5]. Non-Tax Revenue - Non-tax revenue reached 27,113 billion yuan, growing by 1.5%, significantly lower than the 11.7% growth seen in the same period last year [6]. Government Fund Revenue - Government fund budget revenue totaled 26,449 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, with land use rights transfer income at 19,263 billion yuan, down 4.7% [7]. Government Debt and Expenditure - Net financing of government bonds reached 10.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.63 trillion yuan year-on-year, indicating increased government borrowing to support fiscal spending [9]. - General public budget expenditure was 179,324 billion yuan, up 3.1%, with significant investments in social security, education, and healthcare [11]. - Government fund budget expenditure was 62,602 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 30%, primarily directed towards major project construction to stabilize the economy [11].

Core Viewpoint - The overall fiscal revenue in China has shown stability and growth in the first eight months of 2025, reflecting a positive economic trend, with tax revenue growth turning from negative to positive for the first time this year [2][3]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue Overview - National general public budget revenue reached 148198 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [2]. - National tax revenue totaled 121085 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.02%, marking the first positive growth in tax revenue this year [2]. - The four major tax categories (domestic VAT, corporate income tax, domestic consumption tax, and individual income tax) all maintained growth in the first eight months [2]. Group 2: Tax Revenue Breakdown - Domestic VAT, the largest tax source, generated approximately 47000 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2% [2]. - Corporate income tax, the second-largest source, amounted to about 32000 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, indicating a potential improvement in corporate profitability [2]. - Domestic consumption tax generated around 12000 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2% [2]. - Individual income tax reached approximately 11000 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 8.9%, attributed to rising property income among certain demographics [2]. Group 3: Non-Tax Revenue and Government Fund Income - Non-tax revenue for the first eight months was 27113 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.5%, significantly lower than the previous year's growth rate of 11.7% [3]. - Government fund budget revenue, primarily from land sales, was 26449 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, with land use rights transfer income at 19263 billion yuan, down 4.7% [4]. Group 4: Fiscal Expenditure and Debt Financing - National general public budget expenditure reached 179324 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, with a focus on social welfare and employment, education, and health care [6]. - Social security and employment expenditure exceeded 30000 billion yuan, growing by 10% year-on-year [6]. - Government bond net financing for the first eight months was 102700 billion yuan, an increase of 46300 billion yuan year-on-year, supporting a more proactive fiscal policy [6].

National General Public Budget Revenue - The national general public budget revenue from January to August reached 14,819.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [1] - Tax revenue accounted for 12,108.5 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.02% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue was 2,711.3 billion yuan, up by 1.5% [1] - Central government revenue was 6,426.8 billion yuan, down by 1.7% year-on-year, while local government revenue was 8,393.0 billion yuan, increasing by 1.8% [1] Major Tax Revenue Items - Domestic value-added tax generated 47,389 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2% [2] - Domestic consumption tax amounted to 11,523 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2% [3] - Corporate income tax reached 31,477 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.3% [4] - Personal income tax was 10,547 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 8.9% [5] - Import VAT and consumption tax totaled 11,770 billion yuan, down by 6.7% year-on-year, while customs duties were 1,527 billion yuan, decreasing by 6.5% [6] - Export tax rebates were 15,766 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9% [7] - Stamp duty revenue was 2,844 billion yuan, with a notable year-on-year increase of 27.4%, including a remarkable 81.7% increase in securities transaction stamp duty [10] National General Public Budget Expenditure - National general public budget expenditure from January to August totaled 17,932.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [19] - Central government expenditure was 26,570 billion yuan, up by 8% year-on-year, while local government expenditure was 152,754 billion yuan, increasing by 2.3% [19] Major Expenditure Items - Education expenditure reached 27,078 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6% [20] - Social security and employment expenditure was 30,723 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 10% [21] - Health expenditure amounted to 13,717 billion yuan, up by 5.1% year-on-year [22] - Urban and rural community expenditure decreased by 4.9% to 12,319 billion yuan [23] - Agricultural, forestry, and water expenditure fell by 9.4% to 13,589 billion yuan [23] Government Fund Budget Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund budget revenue from January to August was 26,449 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4% [23] - Local government fund budget revenue was 23,516 billion yuan, down by 1.6%, with land use rights transfer revenue at 19,263 billion yuan, decreasing by 4.7% [23] - Government fund budget expenditure totaled 62,602 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 30% [23] - Local government fund budget expenditure was 54,993 billion yuan, up by 18.8% [23]

National General Public Budget Revenue - The national general public budget revenue for January to August reached 14,819.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.3% [1] - Tax revenue amounted to 12,108.5 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.02% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue was 2,711.3 billion yuan, up by 1.5% [1] - Central government revenue was 6,426.8 billion yuan, down by 1.7% year-on-year, whereas local government revenue was 8,393.0 billion yuan, increasing by 1.8% [1] Major Tax Revenue Items - Domestic value-added tax generated 4,738.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [2] - Domestic consumption tax totaled 1,152.3 billion yuan, with a growth of 2% [3] - Corporate income tax reached 3,147.7 billion yuan, up by 0.3% [4] - Personal income tax was 1,054.7 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 8.9% [5] - Import VAT and consumption tax amounted to 1,177.0 billion yuan, down by 6.7%, while customs duties were 152.7 billion yuan, decreasing by 6.5% [6] - Export tax rebates were 1,576.6 billion yuan, increasing by 9% [7] - Urban maintenance and construction tax reached 347.1 billion yuan, up by 2.9% [8] - Vehicle purchase tax was 133.4 billion yuan, down by 17.7% [9] - Stamp duty totaled 284.4 billion yuan, with a notable increase of 27.4%, including a significant rise of 81.7% in securities transaction stamp duty [10] - Resource tax was 194.3 billion yuan, down by 2.8% [11] - Deed tax reached 301.2 billion yuan, decreasing by 15.3% [12] - Property tax was 330.7 billion yuan, up by 11.5% [13] - Urban land use tax totaled 170.4 billion yuan, increasing by 6.3% [14] - Land value increment tax was 296.7 billion yuan, down by 18.3% [15] - Cultivated land occupation tax reached 100.1 billion yuan, up by 4% [16] - Environmental protection tax was 19.7 billion yuan, increasing by 11.5% [17] - Other tax revenues combined were 83.8 billion yuan, with a growth of 0.7% [18] National General Public Budget Expenditure - National general public budget expenditure for January to August was 17,932.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [19] - Central government expenditure was 2,657.0 billion yuan, up by 8%, while local government expenditure was 15,275.4 billion yuan, increasing by 2.3% [19] Major Expenditure Items - Education expenditure reached 2,707.8 billion yuan, with a growth of 5.6% [20] - Science and technology expenditure was 587.4 billion yuan, up by 3.1% [21] - Cultural, tourism, sports, and media expenditure totaled 227.2 billion yuan, increasing by 4.3% [22] - Social security and employment expenditure was 30,723.0 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 10% [22] - Health expenditure reached 13,717.0 billion yuan, up by 5.1% [22] - Energy conservation and environmental protection expenditure was 3,315.0 billion yuan, increasing by 6.6% [22] - Urban and rural community expenditure was 12,319.0 billion yuan, down by 4.9% [22] - Agriculture, forestry, and water expenditure totaled 13,589.0 billion yuan, decreasing by 9.4% [22] - Transportation expenditure was 7,128.0 billion yuan, down by 1.3% [22] - Debt interest payment expenditure reached 8,715.0 billion yuan, increasing by 5.9% [22] National Government Fund Budget Revenue - National government fund budget revenue for January to August was 2,644.9 billion yuan, down by 1.4% [23] - Central government fund budget revenue was 293.3 billion yuan, up by 0.6%, while local government fund budget revenue was 2,351.6 billion yuan, down by 1.6%, with land use rights transfer revenue at 1,926.3 billion yuan, decreasing by 4.7% [23] National Government Fund Budget Expenditure - National government fund budget expenditure for January to August was 62,602.0 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 30% [23] - Central government fund budget expenditure was 7,609.0 billion yuan, up by 3.1 times, while local government fund budget expenditure was 54,993.0 billion yuan, increasing by 18.8%, with land use rights transfer-related expenditure at 26,732.0 billion yuan, down by 4.1% [23]

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the need for a more proactive fiscal policy to stimulate economic growth and improve budget execution efficiency [1][2]. Fiscal Policy and Spending - In the first seven months of the year, the broad fiscal expenditure reached approximately 21.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 9.3%, significantly outpacing the fiscal revenue growth of around 0% [2]. - The acceleration of budget execution is aimed at increasing investments in areas such as livelihood, technology, and major projects to stimulate overall economic demand [2]. Government Debt and Financing - The net financing of government bonds in the first seven months amounted to 8.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.88 trillion yuan year-on-year [3]. - The issuance of new special bonds by local governments reached approximately 3.3 trillion yuan in the first eight months, marking a year-on-year increase of 27%, which constitutes about 75% of the planned annual issuance [3]. Consumer and Service Sector Support - The government plans to implement policies to boost consumption, including personal consumption loan interest subsidies and service industry loan interest subsidies, with a subsidy rate of 1 percentage point [3]. - These policies aim to lower the credit costs for residents and service industry operators, thereby stimulating consumption potential [3]. Future Fiscal Focus Areas - The report outlines key fiscal priorities, including supporting employment and foreign trade, fostering new growth drivers, improving livelihood, managing risks in key areas, and enhancing fiscal governance [4].

Core Viewpoint - The financial market is experiencing increased attention on liquidity as over 20 trillion yuan in reverse repos are set to expire this week, alongside other factors such as MLF expirations and government bond issuances, indicating a tightening liquidity environment [1][3]. Group 1: Market Liquidity Dynamics - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has conducted reverse repo operations totaling 4.384 billion yuan over the first two days of September, while the total reverse repos maturing during this period amounted to 6.942 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2.558 billion yuan [2][3]. - The PBOC is expected to maintain a reasonable liquidity level in September, with analysts predicting that funding rates will likely continue to operate at low levels with minimal fluctuations due to supportive monetary policy and anticipated fiscal spending [5][6]. Group 2: Seasonal and Non-Seasonal Factors - September is characterized by increased seasonal disturbances in liquidity, particularly as fiscal spending typically accelerates towards the end of the month, which may provide some support to the liquidity environment [6][7]. - The strong performance of the equity market and heightened risk appetite may drive funds to reallocate across various asset classes, while the end-of-quarter credit issuance may be more pronounced than in previous years, potentially amplifying liquidity fluctuations [7].

Revenue Insights - In July 2025, the national general public budget revenue increased by 2.7% year-on-year, improving from a decline of -0.3% in June[1] - Tax revenue grew by 5.0% in July, significantly higher than the previous month's growth of 1.0%, while non-tax revenue fell by 12.9%[5] - The cumulative general public budget revenue from January to July showed a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, compared to a decline of -0.3% previously[7] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure in July rose by 3.0% year-on-year, accelerating by 2.6 percentage points from May[8] - Cumulative expenditure from January to July grew by 3.4%, slightly below the average progress of 54.4% over the past five years, completing 54.1% of the annual budget[9] Government Fund Performance - In July, government fund revenue increased by 8.9% year-on-year, although this was a decrease of 11.9 percentage points from the previous month[10] - Government fund expenditure in July surged by 42.4% year-on-year, despite a slowdown of 36.8 percentage points from the previous month[11] - From January to July, government fund expenditure grew by 31.7%, significantly outpacing the revenue growth due to accelerated issuance of local government special bonds, totaling 2.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 1 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year[11]

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue Insights - The growth rate of general public budget revenue turned positive, with a year-on-year increase of 0.1% from January to July, ending the negative growth trend observed earlier in the year[4] - In July, the monthly growth rate reached 2.6%, the highest for the year, with both central and local revenue growth hitting new highs[4] - Major tax categories, including corporate income tax, domestic value-added tax, personal income tax, and consumption tax, contributed 94% to the revenue growth, indicating a structural improvement in revenue sources[4][25] Group 2: Fiscal Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure grew by 3.4% year-on-year from January to July, maintaining stability but showing significant divergence between central and local expenditures[5] - Central expenditure increased by 8.8%, while local expenditure growth fell to 2.5%, the lowest for the year, reflecting challenges in local fiscal management[5] - Social security and health expenditures showed strong growth, with social security spending increasing by 9.8% and health spending by 5.3%, while infrastructure-related expenditures remained weak[38] Group 3: Government Fund Performance - Government fund revenue saw a year-on-year decline of 0.7%, but the rate of decline improved, primarily due to better land transfer income[5] - Land transfer income decreased by 4.6%, indicating ongoing weakness in the real estate market, while government fund expenditure surged by 31.7%[5] - The issuance of special bonds by local governments accelerated, with completion rates reaching 63.1% of the annual quota, a 14 percentage point increase from previous values[5] Group 4: Policy Outlook and Risks - Future fiscal policies will focus on accelerating existing policies and enhancing new tools to stimulate economic growth, as indicated by recent government meetings[6] - Despite improvements in fiscal revenue and expenditure structures, challenges remain, particularly in meeting budget completion rates and addressing weaknesses in real estate-related tax revenues[6][7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating for the Industry No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The fiscal data in July continued to show a warming trend. The improvement on the tax side led to a slight acceleration in narrow - fiscal spending, while broad - fiscal spending maintained resilience supported by special bonds for bank capital injection and ultra - long - term special bonds. Based on the current progress, it is estimated that the fiscal strength in the second half of the year can achieve a smooth continuation, and the probability of supplementing fiscal funds through additional bond issuance within the year is low [1][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Tax Revenue Situation - In July 2025, the national general budget revenue increased by 2.7% year - on - year, with significant tax contribution. Tax revenue increased by 5.0% year - on - year, 4 percentage points higher than the previous value, while non - tax revenue decreased by 12.9% year - on - year, with negative growth for three consecutive months and an expanding decline. The total general budget revenue from January to July increased by 0.1% year - on - year, reaching the annual budget target and completing about 62% of the annual budget, faster than the same period last year. In July, central fiscal revenue increased by 2.2% year - on - year, and local fiscal revenue increased by 3.1% year - on - year [1][2]. - In terms of tax structure, major tax items generally showed high year - on - year growth. Personal income tax and consumption tax increased by 13.9% and 5.4% respectively in July, with their cumulative year - on - year growth from January to July being 8.8% and 2.1%. Corporate income tax increased by 6.4% year - on - year in July. VAT increased by 4.3% year - on - year in July, showing a slight decline but overall remaining stable. Most real - estate - related taxes saw a decline in growth, while securities trading stamp duty increased significantly by 125.4% year - on - year in July [3][4]. General Budget Expenditure - In July, general public budget expenditure increased by 3.0% year - on - year, 2.7 percentage points higher than the previous value. The cumulative year - on - year growth from January to July was 3.4%, 1 percentage point away from the annual target. The main driving force for expenditure was on the livelihood front, such as social security and employment, health, and education, while infrastructure - related expenditure remained in the negative range, and science - related expenditure turned negative [4]. Government - Fund Revenue - In July, national government - fund revenue increased by 8.9% year - on - year, with a marginal slowdown in growth. The cumulative year - on - year decline from January to July further narrowed to 0.7%, and the annual budget target is 0.7%. The cumulative year - on - year decline in state - owned land use right transfer revenue narrowed to 4.6%. The government - fund revenue in the first half of the year completed about 37% of the annual progress, significantly faster than the same period last year [6]. Government - Fund Expenditure - In July, national government - fund expenditure increased by 42.4% year - on - year, still at a high level although it declined compared to the previous value. The cumulative year - on - year growth in the first half of the year was 31.7%, above the annual budget target of 23.1%. The budget completion progress of government - fund expenditure for the whole year was about 43%, faster than the same period in previous years. The combined broad - fiscal deficit of the two accounts in the first seven months reached 5.6 trillion, 1.8 trillion higher than the same period last year [7]. Overall Fiscal Outlook - The first - account target is expected to be achieved, while the second - account may have a small gap. Assuming the annual growth rate of the second - account revenue is around - 5%, there may be a revenue gap of about 300 - 50 billion by the end of the year. However, government - fund revenue and expenditure are not rigid requirements, and the expected 500 - billion - yuan policy - based financial instruments can basically offset the gap [8].