Core Viewpoints - The improvement in M1 may be partially attributed to accelerated fiscal spending, with a notable increase in enterprise deposits and a decrease in fiscal deposits [2][8][20] - Resident loans remain weak, with limited effects from consumer loan interest subsidy policies, reflecting a cautious attitude towards debt among households [2][11] - The decline in social financing growth is linked to the end of "front-loaded" fiscal financing, particularly government bond net financing [3][16] Financial Data Summary - In September, the total credit balance decreased by 0.2% year-on-year to 6.6%, while social financing stock fell by 0.1% to 8.7%. M1 increased by 1.2% to 7.2% [1][7] - New credit in September was 12,900 billion, down 3,000 billion year-on-year, primarily due to the corporate sector [20][25] - M2 saw a year-on-year decline of 0.4% to 8.4%, while M1's new calculation rose by 1.2% to 7.2% [28] Loan Structure Analysis - In September, resident loans added 3,890 billion, a decrease of 1,110 billion year-on-year, with short-term loans down by 1,279 billion and medium to long-term loans up by 200 billion [20][25] - Corporate loans totaled 12,200 billion, down 2,700 billion year-on-year, with a significant drop in bill financing [20][25] - The structure of loans indicates a continued preference for short-term financing among enterprises, despite improvements in PPI and PMI indices [14][20] Future Outlook - The collaboration of fiscal and monetary policies may provide marginal support for the stability of social financing operations, with the introduction of 5,000 billion in new policy financial tools aimed at project capital [3][18] - The new policy financial tools are expected to have a stronger leverage effect and may expand into technology and consumer sectors, aiding in economic structural transformation [18]

Core Points - The U.S. Treasury reported a decrease in the budget deficit for fiscal year 2025 to $1.775 trillion, down $410 billion from the previous year, marking the first annual decline since 2022 [1] - The reduction in the deficit is attributed to record net tariff revenues of $195 billion, which increased by $118 billion due to the implementation of new tariffs [1] - Total federal revenue for fiscal year 2025 reached a record $5.235 trillion, an increase of $317 billion or 6% from $4.918 trillion in 2024 [1] - Federal spending for fiscal year 2025 also hit a record high of $7.01 trillion, up $275 billion or 4% from $6.735 trillion in the previous fiscal year [1] - The estimated deficit as a percentage of GDP for fiscal year 2025 is 5.9%, compared to 6.3% for fiscal year 2024 [1] - In September 2025, the last month of the fiscal year, a record surplus of $198 billion was recorded, an increase of $118 billion or 147% from the same month the previous year [1]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In September 2025, M1 increased by 1.2% year-on-year to 7.2%, while credit balance decreased by 0.2% to 6.6%[1][7] - Social financing stock declined by 0.1% year-on-year to 8.7%[1][7] - New credit in September was 12,900 billion RMB, a decrease of 3,000 billion RMB year-on-year[4][22] Group 2: M1 and Fiscal Policy - The improvement in M1 is attributed to accelerated fiscal spending, with fiscal deposits decreasing by 840 billion RMB, a reduction of 604.2 billion RMB compared to the previous year[2][8] - Corporate deposits saw a significant increase, with a monthly addition of 919.4 billion RMB, up by 149.4 billion RMB year-on-year[2][8] - Non-bank deposits decreased significantly, which may have contributed to the marginal support for M1 growth[2][8] Group 3: Loan Performance - Resident loans added 389 billion RMB in September, down by 111 billion RMB year-on-year, indicating a cautious attitude towards debt[2][10] - Corporate loans remained primarily short-term, with short-term loans and bill financing growth declining by 0.4% to 9.3%[3][13] - Despite a recovery in PPI and PMI indices, corporate investment attitudes have not shifted positively[3][13] Group 4: Future Outlook - The collaboration of fiscal and monetary policies is expected to support the stability of social financing, with 500 billion RMB in new policy financial tools launched to leverage more credit and social capital[3][19] - The new policy tools are designed to enhance project capital and are expected to have a strong leverage effect on credit funding[3][19]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In September 2025, new social financing (社融) increased by CNY 3.53 trillion, a decrease of CNY 229.7 billion year-on-year, which was below market expectations[3] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, down from 8.8% in the previous month[1] - New RMB loans amounted to CNY 1.29 trillion, a decrease of CNY 300 billion year-on-year[4] Group 2: Loan and Deposit Trends - The increase in RMB loans in September was CNY 1.29 trillion, with a year-on-year decrease of CNY 3 billion, indicating weak credit growth[4] - Resident deposits increased by CNY 2.21 trillion, a decrease of CNY 1.53 trillion year-on-year, reflecting a slowdown in the "moving house" trend of deposits[5] - M1 growth rate was 7.2%, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, while M2 growth rate was 8.4%, down 0.4 percentage points[5] Group 3: Market Implications and Future Outlook - The high base effect from last year's government bond issuance continues to pressure social financing growth, with a risk of sustained pressure if no new fiscal policies are introduced[9] - The demand for credit is expected to recover with the implementation of policy financial tools and accelerated fiscal spending[14] - The significant increase in resident deposits in September may be linked to a slowdown in the "money-making effect" from the stock market's high volatility[14]

据自民党消息人士透露，日本议会原定于10月15日投票选出新首相，但由于执政联盟内部谈判激烈，投 票可能推迟。这一不确定性进一步加剧了日元的弱势表现，投资者对日本经济和货币政策的信心受到冲 击。 从技术面看，美元对日元汇率在突破151.00关键阻力后，连续测试153.00上方，显示多头趋势依旧稳 固。日线RSI指标显示汇价略有超买，短期可能出现温和调整，但整体结构仍指向上行通道。 周五（10月10日）欧洲交易时段，美元/日元震荡微跌，仍处于153关口下方，早些时候美元兑日元汇率 曾触及153.27，为2月中旬以来新高。因日本政局动荡，本周日元兑美元汇率重挫近4%，创下自2024年 10月初以来最大周线跌幅。 高市早苗周四表示，日本央行应独立制定货币政策，但需与政府目标保持一致。她强调不希望日元过度 下跌，但其言论未能提振市场对日元的信心。 交易员预计，日本央行12月加息的可能性仅为45%，而明确加息25个基点可能要等到明年3月。丹斯克 银行外汇研究员Mohamad Al-Saraf认为，日本央行本月可能选择按兵不动，但12月或将因通胀高企和低 利率环境而再次加息。他指出，日本通胀水平仍高于目标，利率却处于低位， ...

新华财经法兰克福10月9日电（记者尹亮）8日，德国经济与能源部、德国银行业协会分别发布秋季经济 形势预测报告，称德国经济将于明年实现较高增长，或将摆脱长期疲软状况。部分德国经济界人士指 出，此次经济复苏的主要驱动力并非德国传统优势的外贸出口，而是私人及公共消费和投资活动，同时 高度依赖政府支出带来的刺激，显示德国经济仍存在长期的结构性隐忧。 面对增长压力，新一届德国联邦政府大幅度增加财政支出，以此作为提振经济的重要选项。今年7月， 德国财政部宣布，联邦内阁已批准2026年联邦预算草案。根据草案内容，2026年德国联邦政府计划总支 出为5205亿欧元，比上一年增长3.5%；公共投资规模将达到1267亿欧元，再创历史新高。资金将重点 投向交通基础设施、住房建设、数字化发展和国防安全等领域。 德国政府支出增长将带来积极的刺激。德国银行业协会的预测报告显示，仅德国联邦政府财政方案一 项，就可能在2026年为德国经济增长贡献高达0.8个百分点。德国经济与能源部的报告也表明，今明两 年交替之际，受政府经济和财政政策措施支撑，德国国内经济活力预计进一步增强。 瑞银欧洲公司德国首席经济学家、德国银行业协会经济和货币政策委员会 ...

Core Points - The U.S. federal government is facing a potential shutdown if bipartisan agreement on funding is not reached by midnight on September 30 [2][4] - The current political standoff is primarily centered around the Affordable Care Act, with both parties blaming each other for the impasse [4][5] - This shutdown could be different from previous ones due to the White House's directive for federal agencies to prepare for large-scale layoffs, potentially leading to permanent job losses [3][7] Group 1: Government Shutdown Context - A government shutdown occurs when Congress fails to pass budget appropriations, leading to the cessation of non-essential services [3] - Historically, the U.S. government has experienced over 20 shutdowns since the 1970s, with the longest one occurring during Trump's first term, lasting 35 days [6][10] - The current political landscape, with the Republican party controlling Congress and the White House, complicates the passage of spending bills due to the need for Democratic support [4][5] Group 2: Implications of the Shutdown - If a shutdown occurs, hundreds of thousands of federal employees may face unpaid leave or be required to work without pay, impacting consumer spending and market confidence [9][11] - Essential services like Social Security and Medicare will continue, but other services may be delayed or interrupted, affecting various sectors [9][12] - The potential for long-term economic impacts exists, as prolonged shutdowns could disrupt market order and erode public trust [10][12] Group 3: Political Dynamics - Trump's administration may leverage the shutdown to expand executive power, potentially undermining congressional authority over fiscal matters [8] - The ongoing negotiations reflect significant divisions between the parties, with Democrats seeking immediate discussions on healthcare while Republicans push for a simple funding extension [4][5] - The outcome of this standoff could set a precedent for future budget negotiations and the balance of power between the executive and legislative branches [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The economic repair momentum is weakening, and incremental policies are urgently needed. The latest economic data shows that the economic growth momentum continues to slow down, with fixed - asset investment, manufacturing, and infrastructure investment declining, and real - estate investment still having double - digit declines. Consumption repair is unstable, and deflation pressure persists. The economic fundamentals are still weak, and incremental policies need to be quickly implemented to address multiple constraints such as investment, consumption, and debt resolution risks [6][34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fiscal Revenue Growth Improves Continuously, Tax Revenue Increases Slightly - General public budget revenue growth rate continues to rise, with local fiscal revenue being the main contributor and the drag from central fiscal revenue weakening. From January to August, the year - on - year growth rate of general public budget revenue reached 0.3%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous value, exceeding the annual budget target by 0.1%. The central fiscal revenue has been improving, with the decline narrowing for 6 consecutive months, while local fiscal revenue has maintained positive growth. However, the revenue completion progress is slow [12]. - Tax revenue turns to a slight increase, and non - tax revenue continues to shrink. From January to August, the cumulative growth rate of tax revenue turned positive to 0.02%, rising for 6 consecutive months. Securities trading stamp duty contributes significantly, while consumption tax, real - estate tax, and foreign - trade tax are still drags. The growth rate of non - tax revenue dropped to 1.5%, declining for 6 consecutive months [17]. 3.2 Fiscal Expenditure Growth Declines, Infrastructure Expenditure Growth Declines Significantly - Fiscal expenditure growth has declined across the board, with both central and local expenditures hitting new lows this year. From January to August, the year - on - year growth rate of general public budget expenditure was 3.1%, with the increase narrowing by 0.3 percentage points. The expenditure rhythm is the lowest in the same period in the past five years. The growth rate of central expenditure is still relatively high but has declined by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, while local expenditure growth has declined for 4 consecutive months, mainly affected by factors such as the decline in land transfer income [22]. - In terms of expenditure structure, people's livelihood expenditure has slowed down from a high level, and infrastructure expenditure has shrunk significantly. The growth rate of social security and employment expenditure has slightly increased, while the growth rates of education and health - care expenditure have slightly decreased. The growth rate declines of infrastructure - related expenditures such as agriculture, forestry, and water affairs and urban - rural community affairs have expanded [26]. 3.3 Government - Fund Revenue and Expenditure Growth Slows, Special Bond Issuance Speeds Up but Remains Slow - Government - fund revenue and expenditure growth is weak. The revenue side is under continuous pressure, with the year - on - year growth rate of government - fund revenue from January to August being - 1.4%, and the decline expanding. The expenditure side growth rate has marginally declined. The revenue growth rate is significantly lower than the expenditure growth rate, and the "mismatch" between revenue and expenditure progress highlights the debt - resolution pressure [28]. - Local government special bond issuance has accelerated but remains slow. From January to August, the completion progress of new special bonds was about 74.2%, an increase of about 11 percentage points from the previous value, but still 15 percentage points lower than the average in the same period from 2022 - 2024. The slow issuance is mainly restricted by debt resolution and tightened access to projects [28]. 3.4 Incremental Policies Are Approaching The economic repair momentum is weakening, and incremental policies are urgently needed to be stepped up. The economic growth momentum continues to slow down, consumption repair is unstable, and the economic fundamentals are still weak. Incremental policies need to be quickly implemented to address multiple constraints [6][34].

Group 1: New Economic Dynamics - The high-tech manufacturing sector continues to show strong growth, indicating a new acceleration in economic dynamics [9][10] - Recent financial data shows a decline in credit balance and social financing, with M1 increasing slightly [17] - The impact of "anti-involution" is beginning to manifest in mid-to-lower production and investment sectors [21] Group 2: Gold Price Concerns - Recent trends indicate that gold price increases are primarily concentrated during U.S. trading hours, raising concerns about future price stability [12][11] - The differentiation in investment allocation among different regions may influence future gold price movements [12] Group 3: Fiscal Policy Insights - Broad fiscal spending is slowing down, prompting the need for potential countermeasures to address downward pressure on the economy [21][23] - The upcoming fiscal "second half" may focus on risk prevention, transformation promotion, and consumer protection [16] Group 4: Real Estate Market Trends - There is an improvement in new home transactions in first-tier cities, supported by industrial production recovery and high infrastructure investment [24] Group 5: International Cooperation - The BRICS summit emphasized the importance of multilateralism and international cooperation to address global challenges and promote economic development [29] Group 6: Monetary Policy Outlook - The recent FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut, with increased expectations for further rate cuts in 2025 [30]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the weakening trend in fiscal expenditure and highlights the potential for increased government spending in the future [2] Group 1: Fiscal Expenditure Trends - Recent data indicates a decline in fiscal expenditure, raising concerns about the sustainability of economic growth [2] - The government may need to consider measures to boost spending to counteract the current trend [2] Group 2: Implications for Investment - Investors should monitor potential policy changes that could lead to increased fiscal spending, which may create new investment opportunities [2] - The article suggests that sectors reliant on government contracts could benefit from any future spending increases [2]