Core Viewpoints - The article emphasizes that under pressure on the revenue side, the government may rely more on debt issuance this year, as tax revenue has decreased by 2.1% year-on-year and land sales revenue has dropped by 11.4% [2][11] - It suggests that the fiscal policy will likely require incremental debt to maintain its strength throughout the year, especially if there is no significant improvement in revenue [2][6] Group 1: Debt Issuance and Fiscal Policy - The government has accelerated debt issuance since the beginning of the year, with net financing expected to reach 13.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.2 trillion yuan compared to last year [5][12] - As of May 20, the known net financing of government debt reached 6.2 trillion yuan, achieving 44.9% of the annual target, compared to 22.5% during the same period last year [5][12] - The article indicates that if the revenue side does not improve significantly, the government may need to increase its debt issuance to maintain fiscal strength [6][13] Group 2: Non-Deficit Debt and Investment Focus - In the second quarter, non-deficit debt is expected to accelerate, reflecting a marginal shift in fiscal support towards investment [8][22] - As of May 20, the net financing of non-deficit debt reached 2 trillion yuan, with a progress rate of 36.5%, indicating a focus on investment projects [22][23] - The article highlights that the acceleration of non-deficit debt issuance may signal increased fiscal support for infrastructure and other investment projects [23][28] Group 3: Special Refinancing Bonds and Local Government Debt - The issuance of special refinancing bonds has progressed rapidly, with a known progress rate of 77.8% as of May 20, indicating a focus on managing local government debt [28][29] - The article notes that local government hidden debts remain under strict control, with the central government expected to play a key role in increasing budgetary bonds and quasi-fiscal capital injections [29][31] - The emphasis is placed on the central government's commitment to not increasing hidden debts, reinforcing fiscal discipline [29][31] Group 4: Revenue and Expenditure Insights - In April, fiscal revenue showed a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, with tax revenue turning positive, particularly in the equipment manufacturing and technology sectors [31][33] - The article mentions that the expenditure progress for January to April was the fastest since 2020, with a notable increase in infrastructure spending in April [44][50] - The government’s focus on accelerating special bond issuance and enhancing fiscal support for projects is expected to continue, with a projected increase in government fund income [50][56]

Core Viewpoint - The South African Finance Minister indicated that there are no significant challenges unless unexpected shocks occur in spending, while the downside risks to revenue are more pronounced [1] Group 1 - The Finance Minister's statement suggests a stable outlook for government finances unless there are unforeseen expenditure issues [1] - The emphasis on revenue downside risks highlights potential vulnerabilities in the fiscal landscape [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - From the April fiscal data, although revenue has improved, government bond financing has also contributed significantly to the expenditure growth rate, with the expenditure growth rate of the second account reaching as high as 45%. As of now in May, government bond net financing has exceeded 1.4 trillion, and it is expected to continue to strongly support fiscal expenditure [1][7] Summary by Related Catalog Government Bond Financing - The net financing of government bonds in the 20th week (5/12 - 5/18) was 6723 billion, and 3843 billion in the 21st week (5/19 - 5/25). As of the 20th week, the cumulative net financing was 5.8 trillion, exceeding the same period last year by 3.9 trillion [1][7] Treasury Bond Financing - The net financing of treasury bonds in the 20th week (5/12 - 5/18) was 5012 billion, and 2417 billion in the 21st week (5/19 - 5/25). As of the 20th week, the cumulative net financing was 2.4 trillion, with a progress of 36.5%, exceeding the same period in the past five years [1][8] Local Bond Financing - The net financing of local bonds in the 20th week (5/12 - 5/18) was 1711 billion, and 1426 billion in the 21st week (5/19 - 5/25). As of the 20th week, the cumulative net financing was 3.4 trillion, exceeding the same period last year by 2.3 trillion [2][10] New General Bond - The net financing of new general bonds in the 20th week (5/12 - 5/18) was 196 billion, and 55 billion in the 21st week (5/19 - 5/25). As of the 20th week, the cumulative net financing was 3219 billion, with a progress of 40.2%, exceeding the same period last year [2][11] New Special Bond - The net financing of new special bonds in the 20th week (5/12 - 5/18) was 775 billion, and 1076 billion in the 21st week (5/19 - 5/25). As of the 20th week, the cumulative net financing was 1.4 trillion, with a progress of 31.1%, exceeding the same period last year. Special new special bonds of 2424 billion have been issued, and land reserve special bonds of 964 billion have been issued [2][16] Special Refinancing Bond - The net financing of special refinancing bonds in the 20th week (5/12 - 5/18) was 0 billion, and 251 billion in the 21st week (5/19 - 5/25). As of the 20th week, the cumulative net financing was 1.6 trillion, with an issuance progress of 80% [2][29] Urban Investment Bond - The net financing of urban investment bonds in the 20th week (5/12 - 5/18) was -252 billion, and it is expected to be -346 billion in the 21st week (5/19 - 5/25). As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds is approximately 10.5 trillion [2][32]

Core Insights - The overall public budget revenue for the first four months of the year was 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - Public budget expenditure reached 93,581 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, marking the fastest expenditure progress for the same period since 2020 [1] - In April, public budget revenue grew by 1.9% year-on-year, with tax revenue growth accelerating by 4.1 percentage points to 1.9% [1][2] - Non-tax revenue for the first four months was 15,060 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, but the growth rate slowed to 1.7% in April [3] Revenue Analysis - Tax revenue for April turned positive with a growth rate of 1.9%, while the total tax revenue for January to April was 65,556 billion yuan, down 2.1% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than in the first quarter [2] - Major tax categories showed a decline in growth rates, with VAT, consumption tax, and corporate income tax experiencing significant drops [2] - Personal income tax saw a substantial rebound due to a low base from the previous year, rising from -58.5% to 9.0% [2] Expenditure Analysis - Public budget expenditure in April grew by 5.8% year-on-year, with significant increases in social security and employment spending (8.5%) and education spending (7.4%) [4] - Infrastructure spending showed a growth of 2.2%, with notable increases in urban community and transportation expenditures [4] - Overall, the acceleration in fiscal spending in April indicates a proactive approach to stabilize growth amid external challenges [4] Future Outlook - Experts suggest that while key areas of expenditure are being supported, the ongoing decline in cumulative fiscal revenue indicates underlying economic issues, particularly insufficient effective demand [5] - The focus of fiscal policy in the second quarter is expected to be on accelerating the implementation of existing policies rather than introducing large-scale new measures [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the divergence in fiscal revenue and expenditure in April, with a notable improvement in tax revenue contributing to a more positive outlook for fiscal policy and spending [1][3][4]. Fiscal Revenue - In April, the general public budget revenue growth rate increased to 1.9% year-on-year, with tax revenue showing a significant improvement of 4.1 percentage points, marking the first positive growth this year [1][4]. - Cumulatively, tax revenue for the first four months remains at -2.1% year-on-year, with corporate income tax down by 3.1%, primarily due to low PPI [1][4][5]. - The performance of major tax categories in April was neutral, with corporate income tax contributing 1.21 percentage points to revenue growth, while personal income tax rose by 67.5% year-on-year, largely due to base effects [5][8]. Fiscal Expenditure - Fiscal expenditure showed a more positive trend, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8% in April and a cumulative growth of 4.6% for the first four months, exceeding the annual target growth rate of 4.4% [1][8]. - The expenditure progress for the first four months reached 31.5%, the second highest level in recent years, driven by spending on social security, education, and infrastructure projects [1][8][9]. - The issuance of ordinary government bonds was significantly advanced, contributing to the increase in fiscal spending [8][9]. Broader Fiscal Context - The government fund revenue also turned positive in April, with a year-on-year growth of 8.1%, driven by land sales and expected recovery in government fund income [2][15]. - The government fund expenditure rose sharply by 44.7% year-on-year in April, significantly outpacing revenue growth, indicating strong fiscal support for infrastructure and development projects [18][19]. - The overall fiscal revenue growth remains low, necessitating further measures to stabilize growth and expand domestic demand, with a notable fiscal deficit of 2.65 trillion yuan in the first four months [3][19].

Group 1 - The overall fiscal situation shows signs of recovery, with broad fiscal revenue and expenditure growth rates rebounding to -1.3% and 7.2% respectively for January-April, and April figures improving to 2.7% and 12.9% [1][3] - Tax revenue recovery and a slight rebound in the land market have contributed to the improvement in revenue, while special bond issuance and the initiation of special treasury bonds have supported expenditure growth [1][3] - The fiscal space for further stimulus remains, as economic growth shows resilience despite external shocks, although uncertainties in exports may pose challenges to fiscal balance [1] Group 2 - National general public budget revenue for January-April reached 8.06 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of -0.4%, below the target growth of 0.1%, while April's revenue growth rose to 1.9% [3] - Central revenue turned positive with a growth rate of 1.6%, while local revenue decreased to 2.1%; tax revenue growth improved to 1.9% [3] - National fiscal expenditure for January-April was 9.4 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, exceeding the target growth of 4.4% [4] Group 3 - In April, the growth rates of value-added tax and consumption tax revenues declined, while corporate income tax growth significantly fell, and personal income tax saw a large increase of 67.5 percentage points [6] - Real estate-related tax revenues weakened, with both property tax and deed tax growth rates declining, although land value-added tax growth saw a slight narrowing of decline [6] Group 4 - In April, major expenditure categories showed mixed results, with transportation and technology spending growth exceeding 10 percentage points, while infrastructure spending's proportion continued to decline [8] - Government fund income growth narrowed to -6.7% for January-April, with April's growth turning positive at 8.1%, and land use rights transfer income growth rebounding to 4.3% [9] - Government fund expenditure growth increased to 17.7% for January-April, but remained below the target of 23.1%, with April's growth rising to 44.7% [9]

从财政收入看，1—4月全国一般公共预算收入80616亿元，同比下降0.4%，降幅比一季度收窄0.7个百分点。分 中央和地方看，中央一般公共预算收入下降3.8%，降幅比一季度收窄1.9个百分点，其中4月份增长1.6%，今年 以来首月实现正增长；地方一般公共预算收入增长2.2%，增幅与一季度持平。 从收入来源看，1—4月全国税收收入65556亿元，同比下降2.1%，降幅比一季度收窄1.4个百分点，其中4月税 收收入同比增长1.9%，今年以来月度增幅首次由负转正；全国非税收入15060亿元，同比增长7.7%，主要是多 渠道盘活资产等带动。 广发证券宏观分析师吴棋滢指出，2025年一般公共预算收入目标同比增速仅有0.1%，全年实现收入目标难度 不大。但在结构上，目前财政收入增幅仍依赖于非税收入带动。 财政部5月20日公布的2025年1—4月财政收支数据显示，在国际环境更趋复杂严峻，外部冲击影响加大的背 景下，1—4月全国公共财政收入累计降幅继续收窄，公共财政支出进度达到2020年以来同期最快；4月全国 税收收入同比增长1.9%，为今年以来月度增幅首次由负转正。 校对： 刘榕枝 百万用户都在看 在主要税收收入项目中，1 ...

Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance reported that in the first four months of this year, the national general public budget expenditure reached 93,581 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.6% and completing 31.5% of the budget, marking the fastest expenditure progress for the same period since 2020 [1] Expenditure Analysis - The increase in expenditure is attributed to the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy by various levels of financial departments, which has intensified spending and optimized expenditure structure [1] - There is a notable focus on improving people's livelihoods, promoting consumption, and enhancing future economic momentum, with key areas of expenditure being well-supported [1]

东方金诚宏观研究 东方金诚宏观研究 一季度财政收入表现偏弱，财政支出力度大幅提升 —— 2025 年 3 月财政数据点评 分析师：瞿瑞 冯琳 事件：财政部公布数据显示，2025 年 3 月，全国一般公共预算收入同比增长 0.3%， 1-2 月为下降 1.6%；3 月全国一般公共预算支出同比增长 5.7%，1-2 月为增长 3.4%；1-3 月全国政府性基金收入累计同比下降 11.0%，1-2 月为下降 10.7%；1-3 月全国政府性基金 支出累计同比增长 11.1%，1-2 月为增长 1.2%。 主要观点：尽管 3 月当月财政收入增速有所改善，但一季度财政收入端整体表现仍偏 弱，其中，一般公共预算收入累计同比下降 1.1%，低于去年全年累计增速；一季度政府性 基金收入同比下降 11.0%，主要受国有土地出让金收入同比降幅扩大拖累，背后是土地市 场持续低迷。从支出端来看，一季度广义财政支出累计同比增长 10.1%，其中，一般公共 预算支出同比增长 4.2%，主要源于今年年初政府债券发行提速，充实了可用财政资金。同 时，今年一季度新增专项债发行量同比高增，加之土地出让收入安排的支出同比降幅收窄， 拉动政府性基金 ...

非税持续回落（ 5.9% ， 1-2 月 11% ） ，据财政部介绍， （一季度非税增幅）主要是部分上市中央金融企业分红入库、地方多渠道盘活资产等带动。 此外， 企 业所得税与非税去年以来首现"脱钩"，或显示地方财政压力阶段性缓释 （详见 《 2024 年财政数据的四个反常和启示》 ） ， 积极信号可继续观察。 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 高拓（13705969808） 事项 3月广义财政收入同比-1.7%，1-2月同比-2.9%；3月广义财政支出同比10.1%，1-2月同比2.9%。 报告摘要 一、 收入端：单月增速转正，装备制造、科技等行业税收持续良好表现 3 月，财政收入同比 0.3% （ 1-2 月 -1.6% ），一季度预算收入进度 27.4% ，低于过去三年同期平均水平 。分税收和非税收入看： 税收降幅收窄（ -2.2% ， 1-2 月 -3.9% ），装备制造、科技等行业税收持续良好表现。 一季度， 制造业方面 ，装备制造业保持较高增幅，其中，铁路船舶航空 航天设备制造业、计算机通信设备制造业税收收入分别增长 32.4 ...