Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in international gold prices, influenced by factors such as the U.S. government's record shutdown and the Federal Reserve's internal disagreements regarding interest rate cuts, which have led to a stronger U.S. dollar and increased pressure on gold prices [1][3][4]. Market Performance - On November 4, gold opened at $4001.88 per ounce, reached a high of $4005.56, but ultimately closed at $3931.87, down $70.01 or 1.75% [1]. - The price fluctuation for the day was $76.79, indicating significant volatility [1]. Economic Indicators - The article highlights the importance of upcoming economic data, including the U.S. ADP employment figures and ISM non-manufacturing PMI, which are expected to be better than previous values and may negatively impact gold prices [3][4]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.090%, contributing to the downward pressure on gold [3]. Technical Analysis - Short-term outlook suggests that gold bears have the upper hand, with potential further declines below $3900 unless there is a surprising positive employment report [4]. - Monthly and weekly charts indicate that gold prices may face selling pressure, with potential targets at $3800 or even $3700 if bearish trends continue [8][10]. Future Outlook - Despite short-term challenges, the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish, with expectations of reaching new highs around $5000 due to ongoing economic uncertainties and potential future Fed rate cuts [6]. - Factors such as the ongoing government shutdown, persistent inflation, and global central bank gold purchases are expected to support gold prices in the long run [6][8]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3900 and $3850, while resistance levels are at $3970 and $4000 [12]. - For silver, support is noted at $46.10 and $45.50, with resistance at $47.70 and $48.00 [12].

Core Insights - Recent decline in gold prices is seen as a temporary adjustment rather than a significant drop [1][5] - Gold prices are influenced by the strength of the US dollar, interest rates, and investor sentiment [3] - The current gold price is approximately $4000 per ounce, reflecting a 0.5% decrease from previous highs [1][3] Price Trends - Domestic gold prices have also decreased, with major brands quoting around 1259 RMB per gram, down from previous levels [1] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a price of 921.02 RMB per gram, indicating a decline over the past two weeks [3] Market Dynamics - The recent price drop is attributed to a stronger US dollar and rising US Treasury yields, leading to a shift of investment away from gold [3] - A decrease in geopolitical tensions has reduced the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, contributing to the price decline [3] Investment Considerations - Gold is viewed as a long-term investment for wealth preservation rather than a short-term trading asset [5] - Upcoming economic data releases may lead to significant price fluctuations, suggesting caution for potential investors [5] Buying Strategies - For investment purposes, purchasing gold bars or investment-grade gold directly from banks or exchanges is recommended due to lower costs compared to jewelry [7] - For personal use, buying gold jewelry is acceptable despite higher prices, as it includes craftsmanship and design value [7] Conclusion - Gold remains a reliable asset for risk diversification, and price fluctuations present opportunities for strategic buying [7]

Core Viewpoint - Recent economic uncertainties due to the prolonged U.S. government shutdown and geopolitical tensions have led to a rise in gold prices, while the dollar's retreat from previous highs has provided additional support for gold [1][2] Group 1: Economic Factors - The prolonged U.S. government shutdown may reach historic highs, with ongoing deadlock between Democrats and Republicans affecting economic stability [1] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance limits the dollar's further decline, which in turn suppresses gold's upward potential [1][2] - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December are around 65%, impacting gold prices negatively [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Resistance levels for gold are identified at $4025 (200-hour moving average) and $4045-$4046, with a potential breakthrough leading to a rebound towards the $4100 mark [1] - Support levels for gold are noted at approximately $3963-$3952, with further attention on $3940 and potential declines to the $3910-$3900 range [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Increased safe-haven demand and geopolitical risks are expected to support gold's short-term performance, despite pressures from the Federal Reserve's stance and dollar performance [2] - Investors are advised to remain cautious and observe developments regarding the U.S. government shutdown, Federal Reserve communications, and global risk events that may influence gold's short-term trends [2]

Core Viewpoint - The current gold market is influenced by multiple factors including Federal Reserve monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, supply and demand fundamentals, technical analysis, and recent market changes, leading to frequent fluctuations and uncertainty regarding future price movements [7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy - The market anticipates two more interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, which could weaken the dollar and strengthen gold prices, similar to the surge from $1500 to over $2000 per ounce during the 2020 monetary easing [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions - Ongoing global geopolitical conflicts are driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Historical data shows that gold prices can rise significantly during periods of heightened conflict, as seen with a 10% increase at the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [4]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - The demand for gold typically increases during traditional festivals in India and significant domestic events, providing long-term support for prices. Additionally, limited growth in global gold mining output could lead to supply shortages, further pushing prices upward [5]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Current technical support for domestic gold is around 918 CNY per gram, with international gold showing support near $3972 per ounce. If these levels hold, there is a higher probability of price increases, while breaking these support levels may require caution from investors [6]. Group 5: Market Changes - Recent tax policy changes encourage regulated market purchases of gold, leading to significant price fluctuations, such as a jump in Shandong gold bars from 913 CNY to 1231 CNY per gram. Additionally, banks are adjusting their gold business operations, which may impact gold prices directly or indirectly [7].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, adjusting the benchmark rate to 3.75%-4.00%, enhancing the appeal of precious metals as a safe-haven investment [1] - In October 2025, the precious metals market experienced a significant rebound, with gold prices surpassing $4000 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and loose monetary policies [3] - The demand for gold reserves from global central banks remains strong, with predictions of gold prices potentially reaching $5000 per ounce in the coming year [3] Precious Metals Market Trends - The precious metals market is seeing increased demand for safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical tensions and monetary easing [3] - Silver and other precious metals are also showing potential for price increases due to tightening supply-demand dynamics [3] - Investment strategies suggest maintaining a 10%-20% allocation of precious metals in portfolios to hedge against inflation risks [3] Choosing a Reliable Trading Platform - Investors face challenges such as regulatory blind spots and opaque fees when selecting precious metal trading platforms [4] - Recommended platforms should hold AA class membership from the Hong Kong Gold Exchange to ensure transparency and independent fund custody [4] - Key criteria for platform selection include regulatory background, technical support, and customer service [4] Investment Entry Guide - New investors are advised to start with small amounts and utilize demo accounts to familiarize themselves with trading mechanisms [5] - A strategy of "continuous small amounts" is recommended, investing 5%-10% of funds monthly to mitigate volatility [5] - Setting stop-loss orders and utilizing K-line chart analysis for support levels are essential decision-making tools [5] Operational Support Features - Platforms like Jinseng Precious Metals offer features such as one-click order placement to enhance efficiency for novice traders [6] Guidelines for Selecting a Legitimate Trading Platform - Investors should verify the regulatory credentials of trading platforms to ensure safety and avoid hidden fees [7] - The selection process involves checking membership numbers, evaluating trading costs, and reviewing user agreements for withdrawal timelines [7] - Establishing a robust selection framework is crucial for safeguarding investments in uncertain markets [7]

Group 1 - Gold prices have continued to rise, breaking the psychological barrier of $4000, supported by increased market demand for safe-haven assets due to President Trump's statements and ongoing government shutdown concerns [1][3] - Trump's comments regarding the restriction of high-end AI hardware exports to China have dampened expectations for easing US-China trade tensions, further boosting safe-haven demand for gold [1] - The ongoing government shutdown, now entering its 33rd day, has heightened concerns about potential economic impacts, contributing to gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has strengthened the US dollar, which in turn limits further increases in gold prices [2] - Recent technical analysis indicates that gold is maintaining support near the 100-hour moving average, with potential upward targets if it breaks through the $4045-$4050 range [2] - Investors are advised to monitor upcoming economic data, such as the US ISM manufacturing PMI, and Federal Reserve officials' comments, as these will significantly influence gold price movements [2][3]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the given report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Short - term, precious metal prices are expected to gradually stabilize and enter a range - bound oscillation. It is recommended to focus on long - term allocation opportunities by buying on dips after stabilization [6]. - Medium - to long - term, due to factors such as the Fed remaining in the interest - rate cut cycle, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, unsustainable US debt, and intensified great - power competition increasing dollar credit risk, and continued gold purchases by global central banks, the medium - to long - term center of gravity of gold prices is likely to continue rising. Long - term investors are advised to allocate on dips [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - On October 31, 2025, compared with October 30, 2025, London gold spot rose 0.9%, London silver spot rose 2.6%, COMEX gold rose 0.9%, COMEX silver rose 2.1%, AU2512 rose 1.1%, AG2512 rose 1.7%, AU (T + D) rose 1.1%, and AG (T + D) rose 1.6% [5]. - Regarding price spreads/ratios, from October 30 to 31, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread decreased by 4.5%, the silver TD - SHFE active price spread increased by 16.3%, the gold internal - external price spread (TD - London) increased by 33.8%, the silver internal - external price spread (TD - London) increased by 12.9%, the SHFE gold - silver ratio decreased by 0.6%, the COMEX gold - silver ratio decreased by 1.2%, AU2602 - 2512 increased by 10.1%, and AG2602 - 2512 increased by 4.2% [5]. 2. Position Data - From October 30 to 31, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 0.11%, the silver ETF - SLV remained unchanged, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased by 1.85%, COMEX gold non - commercial short positions increased by 9.43%, COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions increased by 0.13%, COMEX silver non - commercial long positions increased by 0.97%, COMEX silver non - commercial short positions decreased by 0.21%, and COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions increased by 1.43% [5]. 3. Inventory Data - From October 30 to 31, 2025, SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged, SHFE silver inventory increased by 0.41%, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.20%, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.14% [5]. 4. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - From October 30 to 31, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate increased by 0.02%, the US dollar index increased by 0.19%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.28%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield remained unchanged, the VIX increased by 3.13%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.26%, and NYMEX crude oil increased by 0.98% [5]. 5. Market Review - On October 31, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.27% to 921.92 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 1.41% to 11441 yuan/kilogram [5]. 6. Analysis and Short - Term Outlook - The decline in market risk appetite, the ongoing US government shutdown, and the intensification of local geopolitical situations have led to a recovery in safe - haven demand, boosting the stabilization and rebound of precious metal prices. Although Fed Chairman Powell said a December interest - rate cut is far from certain, the market still generally predicts it as the baseline scenario, providing support for the precious metal market. However, due to factors such as the easing of Sino - US trade relations, the strong performance of the US dollar index, the internal differences among Fed officials, and the marginal easing of the US government shutdown, the short - term upward space for a unilateral trend in precious metals may be relatively limited [6]. 7. Medium - to Long - Term Outlook - In the medium to long term, factors such as the Fed remaining in the interest - rate cut cycle, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, unsustainable US debt, and intensified great - power competition increasing dollar credit risk, and continued gold purchases by global central banks will likely cause the medium - to long - term center of gravity of gold prices to continue rising [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The Sino - US negotiation has concluded, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. The market is still skeptical about the tariff details. After the correction, precious metals rebounded. There is a divergence in the market regarding whether there will be an interest rate cut in December, and the expected end - point of this round of interest rate cuts has been lowered compared to the previous period. The Fed meeting minutes show that most officials believe it may be appropriate to further ease policies this year. The influence of Trump on the Fed's independence is emerging, and the US employment situation is slowing down. Although Powell said that changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut interest rates, it is not certain that the Fed will further cut interest rates at the December monetary policy meeting. With the US economic data trending weaker and concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence, it is expected that the medium - term prices of precious metals will still be supported, while the short - term prices are still in an adjustment state. It is recommended to pay attention to the US ADP employment data to be released this Wednesday [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Gold**: Due to the conclusion of the Sino - US negotiation, market doubts about tariff details, and the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, the price of US gold declined. As of last Friday, US gold closed at $4013 per ounce, down 2.8% for the week. The upper resistance level is $4100, and the lower support level is $3950 [6]. - **Silver**: Affected by the same factors, the price of US silver showed a weak oscillation. As of last Friday, it had a weekly decline of 0.3%, closing at $48.3 per ounce. The lower support level is $47, and the upper resistance level is $49.5 [9]. 3.2 Weekly Viewpoint The factors mentioned above led to the correction and subsequent rebound of precious metals. The market is divided on the December interest - rate cut, and the expected end - point of this round of cuts has been lowered. The Fed may further ease policies, but a December cut is not guaranteed. With the weakening US economic data and concerns about fiscal and Fed independence, precious metals are expected to be supported in the medium - term but are in short - term adjustment. Attention should be paid to the US ADP employment data on Wednesday [11]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators The report presents multiple charts related to overseas macroeconomic indicators, including the US dollar index, euro - US dollar and pound - US dollar exchange rates, real interest rates, yield spreads, gold - silver ratio, Fed balance - sheet size, and WTI crude oil futures prices, but no specific analysis of these indicators is provided in the text [15][17][19]. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week The announced value of the US October Chicago PMI was 43.8, higher than the expected value of 42.3 and the previous value of 40.6 [26]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - **Sino - US Negotiation**: The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff will be suspended for another year. China will adjust counter - measures accordingly. Both sides agree to extend some tariff exclusion measures. The US will suspend the implementation of the 50% penetration rule of export control announced on September 29 for one year, and China will suspend relevant export - control measures announced on October 9 for one year and study specific plans [27]. - **Fed**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75 - 4.0% at the October FOMC meeting, in line with market expectations, and will end the balance - sheet reduction on December 1. Powell said that the government "shutdown" affects the economy, but the impact will reverse after the "shutdown" ends. A further interest - rate cut at the December meeting is not certain [27]. - **European Central Bank**: The ECB kept the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40% at the interest - rate meeting. This is the third consecutive time it has kept rates unchanged. The last rate cut was in June when the euro - area inflation rate reached the 2% target [27]. 3.6 Inventory - **Gold**: COMEX inventory decreased by 22,053.63 kg to 1,187,159.84 kg, and SHFE inventory increased by 801 kg to 87,816 kg [13][31]. - **Silver**: COMEX inventory decreased by 451,258.42 kg to 15,005,532.25 kg, and SHFE inventory increased by 573 kg to 665,544 kg [13][31]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - **Gold**: The net long position of CFTC speculative funds was 259,261 contracts, an increase of 3,182 contracts from the previous week [13][36]. - **Silver**: The net long position of CFTC speculative funds was 49,507 contracts, an increase of 729 contracts from the previous week [13][36]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Monday (November 3), 23:00, the US October ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released. - On Wednesday (November 5), 21:15, the change in the US October ADP employment number will be announced [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold futures, the overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel and may be at the end of the trend. It's recommended to wait and see. For silver futures, the overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is in a strong upward stage and is currently at the end of the trend. It's also recommended to wait and see [7][30] 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures 3.1.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel and is currently at the end of the trend - Trend judgment logic: Last week, the gold price showed a "first decline then rise" trend. It was affected by factors such as the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment, profit - taking, and the rumor of the Philippine central bank's selling in the early stage, and then stabilized and rebounded supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut, technical support, and the continuous gold purchase of the Chinese central bank. In the long - term, the gold - buying trend of global central banks and the risk - aversion demand under the background of de - dollarization are the core drivers, but in the short - term, the uncertainty of the Fed's policy path and market sentiment fluctuations need to be concerned - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [7][8] 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The gold contract 2512 was expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the upper resistance at 960 - 965 and the lower support at 920 - 925. It was recommended to wait and see - This week's strategy suggestion: The Shanghai gold main contract 2512 may fluctuate between 904 - 920 yuan/gram in the short term, with the upper pressure level at 930 - 940 yuan/gram and the lower support level at 900 - 904 yuan/gram. It is recommended to wait and see [10][11] 3.1.3 Relevant Data Situation - The report presents multiple data charts including the price trends of Shanghai gold and COMEX gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [18][20][22] Silver Futures 3.2.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is in a strong upward stage and is currently at the end of the trend - Trend judgment logic: Last week, the silver price showed a "decline and then stabilization" trend. It was affected by factors such as the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment, the improvement of London market liquidity, and profit - taking in the early stage, and then gradually recovered supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut, continuous reduction of COMEX inventory, and the effectiveness of technical support. The closing price at the end of the week returned to 11,400 yuan/ton (the same as the beginning of the week). In the long - term, the Fed's policy path, the recovery of industrial demand, and the change of global inventory structure need to be concerned - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [30][31] 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The silver main contract 2512 was expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the upper resistance at 11,785 - 12,085 and the lower support at 10,915 - 11,285. It was recommended to wait and see - This week's strategy suggestion: The silver main contract 2512 may fluctuate between 11,000 - 12,000 yuan/ton in the short term, with the upper resistance level at 11,800 - 12,000 yuan/ton and the lower support level at 11,000 - 11,200 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [34][35] 3.2.3 Relevant Data Situation - The report presents multiple data charts including the price trends of Shanghai silver and COMEX silver, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [45][47][49]

Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals market has experienced extreme volatility, with significant price fluctuations in gold and silver, driven by various market factors [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - Gold prices surged, breaking through key levels of $4100, $4200, and $4300 per ounce, reaching historical peaks [1]. - Silver prices also saw a remarkable increase, surpassing $50 per ounce for the first time in 45 years [1]. - On October 21, a historic flash crash occurred, with gold prices dropping by 5.74% to $4109.1 per ounce and silver prices falling by 7.16% to $47.70 per ounce [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Price Changes - A significant factor for the price drop was the easing of geopolitical tensions, particularly the indication from Ukraine's President that the country is ready to end the conflict with Russia, which reduced the demand for safe-haven assets [2]. - The strengthening of the US dollar also played a crucial role, as a rising dollar index increased the cost of purchasing precious metals for investors holding other currencies [2]. - Profit-taking from previous gains and technical indicators showing overbought conditions contributed to the intensified sell-off [2]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - Barclays analysts noted that despite the short-term pullback, the over 50% increase in gold prices this year reflects ongoing distrust in the global financial and monetary order, which remains a key driver [3]. - Factors such as central bank gold purchases, retail demand for gold, and rising production costs continue to provide support for prices [3]. - However, there are warnings about the potential for further declines, especially in the silver market, which is more volatile due to its smaller market size compared to gold [3].