Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, marking the second reduction this year, but Chairman Powell's hawkish remarks created uncertainty about future cuts [1][3][10]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates was in line with market expectations, with a high probability of a cut predicted before the meeting [3]. - The FOMC noted that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with employment growth slowing and inflation rates remaining high [3]. - There was internal dissent within the Fed regarding the rate cut, with some members advocating for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut while others preferred to maintain current rates [8][10]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Powell's hawkish comments led to a significant market reaction, with major U.S. stock indices dropping during his press conference, while the dollar index rose sharply [15]. - Following Powell's remarks, traders adjusted their expectations for a December rate cut, reducing the probability from 90% to 71% [15]. Group 3: Economic Context - The Fed's meeting occurred amid a government shutdown, which has delayed the release of key economic data, including employment figures [18]. - Powell acknowledged that the shutdown would temporarily impact economic activity but emphasized that the Fed has alternative data sources to monitor the economy [18]. Group 4: Future Rate Path - There are notable divisions among Fed officials regarding future rate cuts, with some predicting additional cuts in the coming months while others express concerns about inflation [20]. - The market is left uncertain as Powell did not commit to a December rate cut, contrasting with previous market expectations [20].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%–4.00% and confirmed that quantitative tightening (QT) will end on December 1, while restoring policy flexibility before the end of the year [1][3] - Market expectations indicate a 68.6% probability of another rate cut in December, with a 31.4% chance of maintaining the current rate [4] - Powell's cautious statements have led to a more measured market response, reducing expectations for aggressive easing [3][6] Group 2 - The October rate cut provides the Federal Reserve with the flexibility to pause if data stabilizes, while the end of QT on December 1 will slightly increase liquidity, reducing the urgency for further rate cuts [6] - Key economic data releases in November, including CPI, employment, and GDP, will be critical for decision-making [6] - The dollar remains strong despite the rate cut, as the move was anticipated and the Fed's credibility remains intact [8][12] Group 3 - The dollar index is currently stabilizing within the fair value gap (FVG) range of 98.63–99.35, maintaining a bullish outlook as long as it holds above 98.60 [10][14] - A breakout above the FVG range could target levels of 99.35–99.70, while a drop below 98.63 would shift the short-term trend to bearish [12][14] - The overall strategy of the Federal Reserve is seen as proactive rather than reactive, with a focus on maintaining vigilance against inflation while restoring policy flexibility [14]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% during its meeting on October 28-29, marking the second rate cut in 2025 following September's decision [1] - The Fed announced it will stop monthly reductions of its balance sheet starting December 1, effectively ending the quantitative tightening process that began in 2022 [1] - UOB's macro research report indicates a possibility of another 25 basis point rate cut in December, with two additional cuts expected in 2026 [1] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Decision - The rate cut decision was not unanimous, with a vote of 10 to 2, indicating differing opinions among Fed officials [1] - Fed Governor Miran opposed the decision, advocating for a 50 basis point cut, while Kansas City Fed President Schmid preferred to keep rates unchanged [1] Economic Context - Fed Chair Powell described the October rate cut as a "risk management measure" aimed at aligning policy closer to a neutral stance [2] - Powell acknowledged the limitations in obtaining key economic data due to the ongoing government shutdown, suggesting a cautious approach for the December decision [2] Market Expectations - Despite Powell's cautious remarks, market expectations for a December rate cut decreased from "almost certain" to 67.1%, yet UOB maintains its forecast for a 25 basis point cut [2] - UOB predicts that by the end of 2025, the upper limit of the federal funds rate target range will reach 3.75%, with two additional cuts anticipated in 2026, bringing the terminal rate to 3.25% [2] Upcoming Meetings - The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for December 9-10 [3]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% during the meeting on October 28-29, marking the second rate cut in 2025 following September's decision [1] - The Fed announced it will halt the monthly reduction of its balance sheet starting December 1, effectively ending the quantitative tightening (QT) process that began in 2022 [1] - UOB's macro research report indicated that the Fed may cut rates by another 25 basis points in December and potentially two more cuts in 2026 [1] - The rate decision was not unanimous, with a vote of 10 to 2; Fed Governor Miran opposed the decision, advocating for a 50 basis point cut, while Kansas City Fed President Schmid preferred to maintain rates [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second rate cut in 2025 following September's decision [1] - The Fed announced it will stop monthly reductions of its balance sheet starting December 1, ending the quantitative tightening process that began in 2022 [1] - UOB's macro research report indicates a possibility of another 25 basis point rate cut in December, with two additional cuts expected in 2026 [1][2] Group 2 - The rate decision was not unanimous, with a vote of 10 to 2; dissenting opinions included a call for a 50 basis point cut and a preference to maintain the current rate [1] - Fed Chair Powell described the October rate cut as a "risk management measure" aimed at aligning policy closer to a neutral stance, acknowledging data limitations due to the government shutdown [2] - Market expectations for a December rate cut decreased from "almost certain" to 67.1% following Powell's cautious remarks, although UOB maintains its forecast for a 25 basis point cut [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced the resumption of limited Treasury bond purchases, officially ending years of quantitative tightening (QT) policy, which is expected to stabilize bond holdings and slow monetary market tightening [2] - The plan includes maintaining a maximum of $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) per month without reinvestment, with all MBS maturity funds reinvested into Treasury bonds starting December 1 [2] - Market expectations for a rate cut in December have significantly cooled due to the Fed's hawkish stance, as indicated by comments from Fed Chair Powell [2] Group 2 - International silver is currently trading below $47.52, with a slight decline of 0.33% to $47.36 per ounce, indicating a short-term bearish trend [1] - Despite the current bearish sentiment, the silver market shows strong fundamentals and potential for future price increases, with a target of $49.5 expected this week [2] - The previous strategy of buying silver around $46 remains unchanged, with expectations for continued bullish momentum [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve continues its interest rate cut by 25 basis points and plans to end its balance sheet reduction (QT) in December [1][2] - The target range for the federal funds rate is lowered from 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the first consecutive rate cuts in a year [1][2] - Market expectations have fully absorbed the likelihood of three rate cuts this year, with a 99.9% probability for the recent cut and a 91% probability for another cut in December [2] Group 2 - The decision to end the balance sheet reduction means that the Fed's QT actions will conclude after three and a half years, with short-term Treasury securities replacing maturing MBS holdings starting in December [2][3] - The Fed will reinvest principal payments from maturing securities into short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, with specific limits on the amounts for different securities [3] Group 3 - Fed Chair Powell indicated that there is significant disagreement among committee members regarding the potential for another rate cut in December, emphasizing that future policy is not predetermined [5][6] - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with GDP growth at 1.6% for the first half of the year, lower than the previous year's 2.4% [6] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with employment growth slowing and increased risks to job stability noted [6][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 29, Eastern Time, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, and decided to end the balance - sheet reduction plan in December. However, Powell poured cold water on the year - end rate - cut expectation [7]. - The domestic Fourth Plenary Session and the draft of the "15th Five - Year Plan" have a positive attitude towards economic growth in the next five years, which is conducive to the stability of macro - expectations. The upcoming meeting between Chinese and US presidents at the APEC meeting and the easing of the geopolitical environment have improved risk appetite [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fed Interest Rate Decision - The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points from 4.00% - 4.25% to 3.75% - 4.00% on October 29, 2025, and will end balance - sheet reduction in December. Powell said that a December rate cut is not a certainty, and the government shutdown poses challenges due to missing economic data [7]. 3.2 Sector Recommendations by the Director 3.2.1 Index Futures - With the gradual landing of positive factors, the index futures may oscillate and wait for new drivers. Domestic policies and the upcoming Sino - US summit have boosted market sentiment, but the Fed's hawkish remarks led to a decline in US stocks. Future upward movement of the index will depend on new positive news, and there may be oscillations around the 4000 - point mark [9][10]. 3.2.2 Coking Coal - Supported by the tightening upstream fundamentals and the expected third - round price increase of coke, the coking coal spot price is strong. Macro expectations and anti - involution themes also boost the market. However, the shrinking profit of downstream steel mills and the price of thermal coal may limit its upward space [12][14]. 3.2.3 Container Freight Index (European Line) - There is a risk of a pull - back after a surge. The market is optimistic due to Maersk's surcharge announcement and the expectation of the US softening its stance on China's tariffs. Attention should be paid to the impact of port congestion on supply and the support of December's shipping capacity on prices [13][15]. 3.2.4 Live Pigs - In the short - term, the spot price may oscillate and adjust. But from the perspective of the production cycle, the pressure will increase in the future as the profit recovers, and the far - end hedging willingness will increase [16]. 3.3 Commodity Research Morning Report 3.3.1 Precious Metals - Gold continues to decline, and silver rebounds oscillatingly. The trend intensity of both is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [19][22][24]. 3.3.2 Base Metals - Copper: The hawkish outlook on rate cuts restricts price increases. The trend intensity is 0 [26]. - Zinc: It rebounds slightly, with a trend intensity of 0 [29]. - Lead: The continuous reduction of inventory supports the price, and the trend intensity is 0 [32]. - Tin: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts, and the trend intensity is 0 [35]. - Aluminum: It oscillates within a range. Alumina rebounds slightly, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensity of all three is 0 [39][41]. - Nickel: The accumulation of smelting inventory and concerns about nickel ore lead to a narrow - range oscillation of nickel prices. Stainless steel has limited downward space but lacks upward drivers. The trend intensity of both is 0 [42]. 3.3.3 Energy and Chemicals - Lithium Carbonate: The basis is stable, and it runs strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [45][47]. - Industrial Silicon: The sentiment is boosted, and the price on the disk rises. The trend intensity is 1 [49][51]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the policy fermentation this week. The trend intensity is 0 [49][51]. - Iron Ore: It oscillates strongly, with a trend intensity of 0 [52]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Driven by macro - sentiment, the steel prices oscillate strongly. The trend intensity of both is 1 [54][56]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Driven by anti - involution sentiment, they oscillate strongly. The trend intensity of both is 0 [58][61]. - Coke and Coking Coal: They oscillate strongly, and the trend intensity of both is 0 [62][64]. - Logs: They oscillate repeatedly [65].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4.00%, but Chairman Powell's comments weakened market confidence in a December rate cut, leading to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields [1][2]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points, marking the second cut since September 17 [1]. - The FOMC noted that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, while inflation remains high [1]. Diverging Opinions within the Fed - There are significant divisions within the Federal Reserve, with some members concerned that premature or excessive rate cuts could reignite inflation, while others argue for more aggressive easing to prevent deeper economic recession [2]. - Powell indicated that further rate cuts in December are not guaranteed, emphasizing the uncertainty due to a lack of government data during the shutdown [2]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's statements, U.S. Treasury yields rose significantly, with the 10-year yield increasing by 10.01 basis points to 4.0757% and the 2-year yield rising by 10.82 basis points to 3.5980% [2]. - The probability of a 25 basis point cut in December has dropped from over 90% to below 70% according to CME FedWatch [4]. Asset and Balance Sheet Management - The FOMC announced the end of balance sheet reduction operations starting December 1, which had involved monthly reductions of $50 billion in U.S. Treasuries and $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities [4]. - The Fed's balance sheet has decreased from nearly $9 trillion to approximately $7.2 trillion since the start of the balance sheet reduction in 2022, which is expected to alleviate liquidity pressures in the interbank market [4].

Core Points - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, marking the second consecutive rate cut since September, aligning with market expectations [1] - The decision received majority support, but two members opposed it, indicating a division in policy stance [1] Economic Assessment - The FOMC noted that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low [2] - Inflation has risen compared to earlier in the year and remains relatively high, which is a key factor in the decision to cut rates [2] Balance Sheet Management - The FOMC announced the end of balance sheet reduction operations starting December 1, with a monthly reduction of $50 billion in U.S. Treasuries and $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) [3] - MBS principal repayments will be reinvested into short-term U.S. Treasuries, marking the end of a three-year quantitative tightening phase [3] Policy Outlook - There is uncertainty regarding further rate cuts in December, as the FOMC emphasized a data-dependent approach to future monetary policy adjustments [4] - The availability of key economic data may be impacted by the partial government shutdown, which could influence the decision-making process for the December meeting [4] Internal Divergence - FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted significant internal disagreement regarding the next steps in policy, with some members advocating for a pause to assess economic conditions, while others support further rate cuts [5][11] - The committee's decision-making will be based on the latest data and changes in economic outlook and risk balance [11]