Core Insights - The U.S. economy appears to exhibit a surprising level of resilience despite the significant policy changes under the Trump administration, with key economic indicators such as employment and inflation not showing the expected severe impacts [1][2] - The long-term effects of Trump's policies, particularly tariffs, may not yet be fully reflected in economic data, suggesting that the current economic stability could be a temporary illusion [1][3] Economic Data Analysis - Employment growth has remained steady at approximately 173,000 jobs per month over the past two months, which is consistent with the previous six months, while the unemployment rate has only increased by 0.1 percentage points [2] - Federal spending has increased by $154 billion compared to the same period last year, contrary to Trump's initial claims of saving $2 trillion in federal expenditures [2] - The government aimed to reduce its workforce by 10% (around 240,000 employees), but only managed to cut about 10,000 positions by March [2] Tariff Impact - The effects of Trump's tariffs are expected to be delayed, as most tariffs take several months to impact consumer prices, with steel and aluminum tariffs implemented in mid-March not yet fully reflected in pricing [3][4] - The presence of inventory buffers and preemptive stockpiling by businesses has further postponed the visible effects of tariffs on the market [3] Market Reactions - The large scale of the U.S. economy has diluted the immediate impacts of Trump's policies, leading to fluctuations in the stock market, particularly in technology stocks, as investor sentiment adjusts to policy changes [4] - The complexity of the feedback mechanisms resulting from Trump's policies, such as unexpected declines in consumer prices and oil prices, indicates a multifaceted response from the market [4] - Ongoing trade negotiations and policy fluctuations are likely to lead to more significant market volatility, necessitating careful management of market expectations by businesses [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market has stabilized after a month of decline, with a focus on potential tariffs from the Trump administration [1][3] - Gold prices have recently shown weakness, with a drop below $3000, indicating a broader trend of low volatility across various markets [1] - The market is anticipating further actions regarding tariffs, with a potential announcement on April 2, which could lead to significant market movements [1][2] Group 2 - The upcoming evaluation of the Phase One trade agreement between the U.S. and China on April 1 is a critical date, with expectations that it may prevent extreme tariffs [2] - U.S. stock futures have shown positive performance in Asian trading, suggesting a divergence from Asian markets [3] - The U.S. market has been managing expectations effectively, with analysts viewing potential tariff announcements as a possible "buying opportunity" due to prior price adjustments [3]

Economic Goals and Policy Adjustments - The economic target for this year is set at 5.0%, which is crucial under external tariff pressures[1] - The deficit ratio has been raised to 4.0%, indicating a need for increased policy support to meet the economic target[1] - Special bonds amounting to 4.4 trillion and 1.3 trillion in ultra-long special bonds are planned, with 500 billion allocated to supplement bank capital[3] Fiscal and Monetary Policy Dynamics - The issuance of local special bonds is expected to be 3.6 trillion, lower than last year's 3.9 trillion, reflecting a central government expansion and local government contraction in leverage[3] - The focus for the upcoming quarters will be on the pace of policy implementation, with a pattern of strong Q1 performance followed by a slowdown in Q2 and acceleration in Q4 observed over the past two years[2] - The inflation target has been adjusted down to 2.0%, aligning more closely with realistic expectations rather than aiming for aggressive increases[1] Supply-Side Dependence - The upward trend in domestic commodities is primarily reliant on supply-side factors, which have received policy confirmation[1] - The core of the policy analysis indicates a continued focus on high-quality development through 2025, with the current measures reflecting last year's political meeting's spirit[3] - Without comprehensive leverage increases, domestic demand may not significantly drive prices, maintaining a supply-side logic path[3]