Core Points - The Federal Reserve has decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December 2024 [1] - Despite rising inflation rates, recent job growth has been below expectations, prompting the Fed to take this action [1] - The Fed predicts an additional 50 basis points cut by the end of the year and 25 basis points cuts annually for the next two years [1] - The Fed will continue to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasuries, agency bonds, and agency mortgage-backed securities, maintaining the current pace of balance sheet reduction [1] - The Fed's decision led to a 0.13% decline in the U.S. dollar index, bringing it to 96.48 [1] Economic Outlook - The Fed forecasts a GDP growth rate of 1.6% for 2025, an increase from the previous prediction of 1.4% made in June [1] - The long-term growth rate is expected to be 1.8% [1] Diverging Opinions - Newly appointed Fed Governor Stephen Milan, who is also the chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, was the only member to dissent, advocating for a 50 basis point cut [1]

美联储如期降息25个基点至4.00%-4.25%，时隔9个月以来首次降息。美联储表示，近期劳动力市场的疲软超过了通胀反弹带来的压力，将在今年剩余时间里稳步降低借贷成本。决议投票比例为11:1，新上任的米兰（特朗普经济顾问）投下反对票，他主张降息50基点。美联储点阵图中位数呈现出相当分散的局面，美联储预计年内还将降息两次，较6月的降息预期多一次。19位官员中有9位官员预计今年还将降息两次，有2位预计还将降息一次，有6位预计年内不再降息，有1位预计年内加息一次，有1位预计年内至少有两次50个基点或以上的降息。在委员们权衡降息利弊之际，鲍威尔倾向认为通胀风险或许更容易应对，美联储应该容忍更多的通胀风险，以避免劳动力市场出现更深层次的裂痕。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):美联储宣布降息25个基点，符合预期。但不符合特朗普的预期。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points aligns with market expectations, indicating potential further cuts later this year as the economy faces rising risks [5][6]. Market Performance - On Wednesday, U.S. stocks showed mixed results with the Dow Jones rising by 260.42 points (0.57%) to 46018.32, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.33% to 22261.33, and the S&P 500 decreased by 0.10% to 6600.35 [2]. - The financial sector led the gains, while the technology sector experienced declines [2]. Technology Stocks - Performance among major tech stocks was varied, with Nvidia down 2.6%, Oracle down 1.7%, Amazon down 1.0%, Google down 0.6%, Meta down 0.4%, while Microsoft and Apple saw slight increases of 0.2% and 0.3% respectively [3]. Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 2.8%, with Baidu increasing over 11%, and Bilibili, Alibaba, JD.com, and NetEase also showing gains [4]. Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate to a range of 4.00%-4.25% and acknowledged rising risks in the job market [5]. - The latest dot plot indicates two more 25 basis point cuts this year and an additional cut next year [6]. - Fed Chair Powell described the rate cut as a risk management measure, highlighting a shift in the economic risk landscape [5][6]. Bond Market - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 4.2 basis points to 4.06% and the 2-year yield rising by 3.5 basis points to 3.54% [6]. Banking Sector - Bank stocks performed well, with Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Citigroup all rising over 1% [7]. Economic Data - In August, U.S. new home starts fell to an annualized rate of 1.3 million, down 3.7% from July, missing market expectations [8]. - Building permits also decreased from 1.362 million in July to 1.312 million, marking the lowest level since May 2020 [8]. Commodity Prices - International oil prices declined, with WTI crude oil down 0.73% to $64.05 per barrel and Brent crude down 0.76% to $67.95 per barrel [9]. - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, with COMEX gold futures for September delivery down 0.19% to $3681.80 per ounce [10].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced its first interest rate cut since December 2024, lowering rates by 25 basis points, signaling a shift in focus from combating inflation to boosting employment [1][4][7] - The Fed's statement removed previous affirmations of a strong labor market, acknowledging a slowdown in job growth and a slight increase in unemployment, indicating rising risks in employment [4][7] - The median expectation from the Fed's dot plot suggests a total rate cut of 0.5 percentage points by the end of the year, with two more 25 basis point cuts anticipated in the remaining meetings [4][10] Group 2 - Barclays Research predicts a slight increase in the unemployment rate and heightened risks in employment, suggesting the Fed may implement two more 25 basis point cuts in October and December [3][11] - The Fed's inflation forecasts have been adjusted, with the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation expected to be 2.6% in 2026, indicating a longer path to achieving the 2% target [6][10] - The recent employment data shows a significant downward revision in non-farm payrolls, with the U.S. experiencing negative job growth over the past four months, justifying the 25 basis point cut [9][19] Group 3 - The appointment of Stephen I. Miran, a proponent of aggressive rate cuts, has introduced political dynamics into the Fed's decision-making process, as he voted against the 25 basis point cut [12][14] - The Fed's internal divisions regarding future rate cuts are evident, with varying predictions among officials about the number and magnitude of future cuts [15][19] - Market reactions to the rate cut have been mixed, with initial gains in U.S. stocks followed by a reversal, indicating uncertainty about the economic outlook and the effectiveness of the Fed's policies [17][19] Group 4 - Analysts express concerns that the current economic environment may lead to speculative bubbles if additional monetary easing is applied to an economy that is not weak [18][19] - The historical context of past rate cuts shows that while equities may experience volatility, gold often benefits from a declining dollar and increased demand for safe-haven assets during such periods [25][19] - The Fed's recent actions are seen as part of a broader trend towards a more dovish monetary policy framework, reflecting changing macroeconomic conditions and labor market dynamics [15][19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of VIX futures ETFs, highlighting a divergence in market behavior where high-quality U.S. stocks are declining while lower-quality stocks are rising, potentially influenced by global interest rate expectations [1]. Group 1: VIX Futures ETFs - Both 2x long VIX futures ETF (UVIX) and 1x short VIX futures ETF (SVIX) are experiencing gains, indicating increased volatility in the market [1]. - There is a noted discrepancy in the performance of UVIX, which is reported to be declining despite the overall trend of VIX ETFs rising, suggesting potential issues with market data [1]. Group 2: Stock Market Trends - High-quality core U.S. assets such as NVIDIA, Broadcom, and Microsoft are stagnant or declining, while lower-quality stocks like Tesla are seeing gains, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1]. - This trend has persisted for three days, possibly linked to global expectations regarding interest rate cuts, with speculation on a 25 to 50 basis point reduction [1]. Group 3: Gold Market - Gold has also seen a decline over the past three days, suggesting that investors may be cashing out in anticipation of changes in monetary policy [1].

可以说，美联储最新利率决议的最大的意外是：只有一票反对。美联储主席鲍威尔在不利局面下，依然 成功促成了本周货币政策会议上几乎一致的共识，新任理事米兰是唯一一个投票反对降息25个基点的 人。米兰是特朗普的亲密盟友，他刚在周二宣誓就任临时美联储理事。他反对的理由是支持更大幅度的 降息——这正是特朗普几个月来一直要求的。不过，理事沃勒和鲍曼在七月份曾提出过鸽派异议，但这 次并未再如此表态。毕马威首席经济学家Diane Swonk表示："很明显，鲍威尔成功把'猫赶到了一起'(把 意见不和的人都拢到一起）。"（格隆汇） ...

北京时间周四凌晨两点，美联储如期宣布2025年首次降息。 与市场预期一致，联邦公开市场委员会将基金利率区间下调25个基点，调整至4.00%-4.25%。 如同鲍威尔8月讲话那般，经严格审核的决议也通过措辞变化着重体现美国劳动力市场的下行风险，同时美联储也面对通胀上行的两难局面。 决议指出，近期指标显示，今年上半年经济活动的增长有所放缓。就业增长速度减慢，失业率小幅上升但仍处于低位。通胀有所上升，并保持在相对较高 的水平。委员会关注双重使命两方面的风险，并判断就业方面的下行风险有所增加。 与7月类似，9月决议也出现了反对票——周二刚来美联储兼职的白宫经济顾问米兰要求降息50个基点。 随政策决议一同发布的点阵图也显示，美联储官员们目前的中位预期是2025年还有两次各25个基点的降息。不出意外，点阵图上也出现了刺眼的"白宫降 息呼声"。 毫无疑问，点阵图上最突兀的那个点有极大概率来自米兰。按照他的预期，9月降息后，美联储应该在年内再额外进行至少100个基点的降息。 点阵图同时显示，9月降息后，在除米兰的18位官员中，有1人认为应该加息25个基点，另有6人认为年内不在降息，有2位官员认为年内应该再降息25个基 点；另 ...

美联储宣布降息25个基点，符合预期。但不符合特朗普的预期。 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The U.S. stock market showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones up by 0.66%, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.50% and the S&P 500 decreased by 0.09% [1] - Chinese concept stocks saw significant gains, with Baidu rising over 6%, and other companies like Huya, Pinduoduo, Kingsoft Cloud, New Oriental, and NIO increasing by over 3% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in its upcoming meeting, influenced by recent employment growth slowdown [2] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a shift in focus towards employment issues rather than persistent inflation concerns during the Jackson Hole global central bank conference [2] Group 3: Investment Sentiment - A recent survey by Bank of America revealed that bullish sentiment towards global equities has reached a seven-month high, driven by improved expectations for global economic growth [3] Group 4: Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) experienced a net inflow of 20,685 bitcoins last week, marking the highest inflow in nearly two months, with total holdings in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reaching a record 1.32 million bitcoins [4] Group 5: Oil Market Dynamics - OPEC+ is reportedly set to discuss the assessment of its maximum production capacity in an upcoming meeting, as the alliance accounts for nearly half of the global crude oil output [5] Group 6: Corporate Developments - Intel is reportedly in talks with Tesla for a custom chip collaboration, which could help Intel's chip manufacturing division recover from losses and attract more tech clients [6] - Alibaba's market capitalization in Hong Kong has returned to 3 trillion HKD, coinciding with the public appearance of co-founder Jack Ma at an Alibaba bar [7]

周四，美联储将向投资者传达一个"三部曲式"的信息：官员们在多大程度上重新调整其前景以反映疲软 的就业市场？美联储正变得多么分裂？理事米兰的到来是否给美联储带来了党派倾向？ 尽管美联储想要避开政治纷争，但它还是被稳步地拖入了华盛顿两极分化的对话中。 共和党人指责拜登政府的任命者将美联储推向了气候变化和种族平等等不适当的领域，并在2024年总统 竞选期间通过降息拉选票。 民主党人则指责美国总统特朗普的施压运动，包括试图解雇前总统拜登任命的理事库克、迫使美联储主 席鲍威尔下台的举动以及将米兰安插进美联储。 库克于2022年成为美联储理事，而米兰的确认投票以一票的优势中通过。 利率预计将下降 美联储将于北京时间周四凌晨两点公布利率决议，市场普遍预计该央行将进行自去年12月以来的首次降 息，幅度为25个基点。当时特朗普的当选曾引发担忧，即他的进口关税可能会重新点燃通胀并减缓经济 增长。 在特朗普重返白宫之前，美联储官员曾预计通胀将继续下降至2%的目标，这将允许一系列稳定的降 息，使借贷成本朝向一个更中性的水平。 自那时以来，利率一直稳定在这一区间，而通胀则有所回升。 然而，就业市场似乎已经减弱，更多的美联储官员对需要通 ...