Group 1 - The international gold price surged to $3,557 per ounce, while domestic gold price reached 810.2 yuan per gram, indicating a volatile market for gold investors [1] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange saw T D contracts increase by 0.42% to 812.4 yuan per gram, while the main contract slightly decreased by 0.06% to 816.56 yuan per gram [1] - Major jewelry brands like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook are selling gold at 1,060 yuan per gram, reflecting not just the gold price but also brand value, design costs, and operational expenses [1] Group 2 - In Shenzhen's wholesale market, gold is priced around 820 yuan per gram, which is more competitive compared to branded stores [1] - State-owned brands like China Gold offer gold at 989 yuan per gram, which is relatively affordable compared to luxury brands [1] - Investment gold bars from banks are priced between 820 and 830 yuan per gram, making them a preferred choice for stable investments [1] Group 3 - The price of gold bars varies significantly between brands, with some like Chow Tai Fook selling at 938 yuan per gram, while others like Caibai sell at 819.7 yuan, indicating the impact of brand value on investment gold pricing [1][3] - The overall precious metals market is experiencing a rise, with platinum, silver, and palladium also seeing price increases, reflecting investor concerns about economic stability [3] - Central banks globally are increasing their gold purchases as a hedge against economic uncertainty, which supports gold prices [3] Group 4 - The rise in gold prices is influenced by broader economic factors, including inflation and interest rate changes, which can lead to price volatility [4] - The growing popularity of gold ETFs provides more accessible investment options for the general public, indicating a shift in how individuals engage with gold as an asset [3] - A healthy gold market requires integrity from businesses, rational investment from individuals, and effective regulation to ensure stability and trust [9]

| 11/11/2 | ■控期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月05日 | | 黄金 | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆★ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜美国经济数据喜忧参半，ADP就业人数增加5.4万人低于预期的6.5万人，上周初请失业金人数超预期增 加至23.7万人为6月以来最高水平，ISM服务业PMI上升1.9点至52超过预期的50.1为2月以来新高。本周降息 预期稳固叠加美联储独立性担忧助推贵金属强势运行,聚焦今晚美国非农就业数据指引。 ★美联储——①美国司法部已就抵押贷款事件对库克展开刑事调查。②理事提名人米兰：不建议将美联储控 制权交给总统。③威廉姆斯：就业市场面临的风险正在上升;预测随着时间的推移降息将变得合适。 ★世界黄金协会发布的最新报告显示，8月黄金ETF净流入达55亿美元，主要来自 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weak US employment data and dovish statements from Fed officials provide support for precious metal prices at high levels. The labor market in the US has shown signs of weakening, with the ADP employment number in August lower than expected and the initial jobless claims in the week ending August 30th higher than expected [2]. - New Fed Governor Milan's monetary policy views will be significantly influenced by Trump. New York Fed President Williams believes that the risks in the employment market are rising, and it will be appropriate to cut interest rates over time [3]. - The non - farm payrolls data to be released tonight is expected to show a slight increase above the expected 75,000. Precious metal prices will wait for further economic data and monetary policy statements, maintaining a high - level sideways movement in the short term. In the interest - rate cut cycle, gold and silver prices will rise significantly. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the reference range for the main contract of Shanghai gold being 801 - 836 yuan/gram and that for Shanghai silver being 9526 - 10300 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Quotes - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $3597.10 per ounce, down 0.27%; Shanghai gold (Au(T + D)) closed at 809 yuan/gram, down 0.12%. The price of London gold was $3546.30 per ounce, down 0.28%. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 2.29 tons to 981.97 tons, a decline of 0.23% [2][4]. - **Silver**: COMEX silver closed at $41.25 per ounce, down 0.40%; Shanghai silver (Ag(T + D)) closed at 9770 yuan/kilogram, down 0.10%. The price of London silver was $40.97 per ounce, up 0.26%. The SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 50.83 tons to 15230.57 tons, a decline of 0.33% [2][4]. - **Other Related Indicators**: The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.17%, and the US dollar index was 98.29. The major stock indices in the US and other countries generally rose, with the Dow Jones index up 0.77%, the S&P 500 up 0.83%, and the Nasdaq index up 0.98% [2][4]. Key Data of Gold and Silver - **Gold**: On September 4, 2025, the closing price of COMEX gold was $3602.40 per ounce, down 0.48% from the previous day; the trading volume was 230,000 lots, up 6.59%; the open interest was 443,800 lots, up 1.19%. The inventory remained unchanged at 1212 tons. The closing price of SHFE gold was 812.98 yuan/gram, down 0.23%; the trading volume was 475,000 lots, up 13.86%; the open interest was 439,900 lots, down 0.46%. The inventory increased by 7.46% to 43.25 tons [6]. - **Silver**: On September 4, 2025, the closing price of COMEX silver was $41.32 per ounce, down 1.18% from the previous day; the open interest was 158,600 lots, up 0.10%. The inventory increased by 0.26% to 16093 tons. The closing price of SHFE silver was 9773 yuan/kilogram, down 0.48%; the trading volume was 1,537,400 lots, up 36.19%; the open interest was 838,100 lots, down 1.51%. The inventory increased by 2.68% to 1259.95 tons [6]. Price and Spread Analysis - **Gold**: The SHFE - COMEX spread was - 7.43 yuan/gram, and the SGE - LBMA spread was - 3.21 yuan/gram on September 4, 2025 [55]. - **Silver**: The SHFE - COMEX spread was 359.92 yuan/kilogram, and the SGE - LBMA spread was 441.51 yuan/kilogram on September 4, 2025 [55].

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals investment is increasingly important for asset allocation due to its hedging properties and appreciation potential, with the choice of a safe and compliant trading platform being a primary concern for investors [1] Group 1: Why Choose Wanzhou Gold Industry? - Wanzhou Gold Industry operates under strict compliance, holding a legitimate financial license, including the Hong Kong Gold Exchange AA Class 141 license and recognition as a 999.9 gold refiner by the Hong Kong government, ensuring user rights are protected [3] Group 2: Wanzhou Gold Industry APP Download Guide - The APP should be downloaded from official channels to avoid counterfeit software, ensuring personal information security [4] - The APP is compatible with both Android and iOS systems, catering to various user devices [4] - The installation and registration process is straightforward, allowing users to create an account within minutes [4] Group 3: Core Advantages of Wanzhou Gold Industry APP - The APP features a user-friendly interface designed for mobile, integrating market analysis, trading execution, and fund management [6] - It provides real-time pricing for major international spot gold and silver, with minimal latency, along with professional chart analysis tools [6] - The APP offers a diverse range of trading products, including London gold, London silver, and various gold bars, supporting multiple trading modes [6] - Investment thresholds are low, with a minimum deposit of only 70 USD and a micro-trading option starting at 0.01 lots, along with a simulated trading feature for beginners [6] - The APP includes a built-in investment encyclopedia and 24/7 customer support to assist users with inquiries and issues [7] Group 4: Important Considerations for Precious Metal Investment - Despite Wanzhou Gold Industry being a legitimate platform, investors should be aware of market risks associated with precious metal investments, influenced by international economic data, dollar trends, and geopolitical factors [8] - It is recommended for investors to practice with simulated trading before engaging in real transactions to familiarize themselves with market dynamics [8]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels - Options: On hold 2) Core View of the Report - Gold prices have hit a new all-time high, with the main logic based on easing expectations and the risk premium due to threats to the Fed's independence. It is expected that the gold price will continue to be in a volatile and upward - biased pattern, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 785 yuan/gram and 835 yuan/gram [8]. - In the current macro - environment, the silver price can benefit from both its financial attributes similar to gold and its industrial attributes in the interest - rate cut cycle, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to narrow. However, the silver price is also expected to remain in a volatile pattern, with the Ag2510 contract oscillating between 9700 yuan/kg and 10200 yuan/kg [9]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Tariffs: US President Trump will appeal to the US Supreme Court regarding the global tariff case, claiming that the US was in an economic emergency when the tariffs were introduced [1]. - US economic data: The US ISM manufacturing index in August rose slightly from 48 in July to 48.7, lower than the market expectation of 49, and remained below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. The new orders index expanded for the first time since the beginning of this year, but the output index fell back into the contraction range [1]. - Eurozone inflation: The Eurozone CPI in August rose 2.1% year - on - year, and the core CPI fell slightly to 2.3%. An ECB hawkish official said the ECB should pause rate cuts due to upward inflation risks [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - Shanghai Gold: On September 2, 2025, the Shanghai gold主力 contract opened at 799.54 yuan/gram and closed at 804.32 yuan/gram, up 0.47% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 804.42 yuan/gram and closed at 813.00 yuan/gram, up 1.08% from the afternoon close [2]. - Shanghai Silver: On September 2, 2025, the Shanghai silver主力 contract opened at 9775.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9824.00 yuan/kg, up 0.50% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 547,942 lots, and the open interest was 282,718 lots. In the night session, it opened at 9766 yuan/kg and closed at 9836 yuan/kg, up 0.12% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 2, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond closed at 4.261%, up 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The 10 - 2 year spread was 0.62%, down 0.22 BP from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - Gold: On the Au2508 contract, the number of long and short positions did not change compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 319,990 lots, down 35.47% from the previous trading day [4]. - Silver: On the Ag2508 contract, the number of long positions increased by 2, and the number of short positions decreased by 2. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 968,060 lots, down 36.18% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - Gold ETF holdings increased by 12.88 tons to 990.56 tons compared to the previous trading day. Silver ETF holdings increased by 56.48 tons to 15,366.48 tons compared to the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - Spot - futures spread: On September 2, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was - 20.32 yuan/gram, and for silver was - 1028.51 yuan/kg. - Gold - silver ratio: The ratio of the prices of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 81.87, down 0.03% from the previous trading day. The foreign gold - silver ratio was 85.48, up 0.65% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On September 2, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 51,864 kg, down 19.48% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 444,734 kg, down 31.93% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,490 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kg [7].

Group 1 - Precious metal prices, particularly silver, have experienced a significant breakthrough, with international silver prices surpassing $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011, driven by rising expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] - The largest SLV silver ETF reported a substantial increase in holdings, with a rise of 247.7 tons in August and a total increase of 934 tons year-to-date, indicating strong investor demand for silver [2] - The U.S. Geological Survey proposed including silver in a list of critical minerals for 2025, highlighting its importance for the U.S. economy and national security, which may lead to potential import tariffs on silver [2] Group 2 - The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts increased by 9.287 million ounces, a week-on-week growth of 3338%, indicating heightened demand for silver imports [3] - The dual characteristics of silver's industrial and investment demand are enhancing its strategic position in the market, especially in the context of potential tariffs [2] - The outlook for silver prices remains positive due to increased physical demand and ETF inflows, although caution is advised regarding potential price corrections if market expectations are not met [3]

Market Performance - The US stock market indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.55% at 45,295.81 points, the S&P 500 down 0.69% at 6,415.54 points, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.82% at 21,279.63 points [5][4] - Major technology stocks experienced declines, with Nvidia down nearly 2%, Amazon, Tesla, and Apple down over 1%, and Google down 0.73% [6] - Bank stocks also fell, with Goldman Sachs down nearly 2%, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley down over 1%, and Bank of America down 0.66% [7] Sector Performance - Energy stocks mostly rose, with Occidental Petroleum up nearly 1%, Chevron up 0.75%, and ExxonMobil up 0.34% [8] - Airline stocks mostly declined, with Southwest Airlines down nearly 2%, Delta Airlines down over 1%, and United Airlines down 0.3% [9] - Semiconductor stocks saw a decline, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 1.12% and ARM down over 4% [10] Chinese Concept Stocks - Chinese concept stocks performed relatively well, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up 0.52%. Notable gainers included Baozun up over 11%, Huya up over 8%, and BeiGene up over 8% [11][12] Gold Market - International gold prices continued to rise, with COMEX gold futures breaking through $3,600 per ounce, marking a historical high [15][14] - London gold prices also surged, exceeding $3,540 per ounce [16] - The rise in gold prices positively impacted gold stocks in the US market, with Harmony Gold up over 7% and Caledonia Mining up over 3% [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with predictions of a new upward trend in precious metals after a four-month consolidation period [1][2]. Group 1: Gold and Silver Price Movements - On September 2, London spot gold prices broke through the $3,500 per ounce mark, reaching a high of $3,508.49 per ounce, marking a historical peak and ending a four-month period of price stagnation [2]. - COMEX gold and silver futures also reached historical highs, with COMEX gold peaking at $3,578.4 per ounce and COMEX silver at $41.99 per ounce, the highest levels since 2012 [2]. - Domestic gold and silver futures in China also saw significant increases, with the Shanghai gold futures closing at 804.32 yuan per gram, up 1.21%, and silver futures at 9,824 yuan per kilogram, up 2.33% [2]. Group 2: Market Drivers and Predictions - Analysts attribute the current upward trend in gold prices to macroeconomic policy expectations and political risks, particularly the dovish shift from the Federal Reserve and concerns over its independence due to political pressures [4]. - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve is seen as a major short-term positive for gold prices, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut in September [2][4]. - The article highlights that the price of silver, which has strong industrial properties, is expected to rise alongside gold, potentially outpacing gold in percentage gains [4]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The article notes that various metals, including rare earths and copper, have also experienced price increases, indicating a broader rally in the commodities market [4]. - The article mentions that a well-known private equity firm has focused its investments on upstream resource sectors, including gold, copper, and aluminum [4]. - UBS's strategy report suggests that gold prices are likely to continue reaching new highs in the coming quarters, supported by low interest rates and economic uncertainties [6].

Core Viewpoint - A "perfect storm" of macro catalysts is forming for precious metals, driven by expected interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, a weakening dollar, ETF inflows, and a recovery in physical demand [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Price Predictions - Morgan Stanley predicts a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on September 16-17, with another cut expected by year-end, historically leading to a significant increase in gold prices [1][5]. - Historical data shows that gold prices average a 6% increase within 60 days of the Fed starting a rate cut cycle, with some cycles seeing increases as high as 14%, potentially pushing gold prices to around $3700/oz [5][6]. - Morgan Stanley sets a target price of $3800/oz for gold by Q4 2025, indicating an approximate 8% upside from the current price of $3496/oz [2]. Group 2: Demand Factors - There has been a significant reversal in market sentiment, with global gold ETFs recording a net inflow of approximately 440 tons this year, marking a shift after four years of outflows [10]. - Central banks have net purchased 415 tons of gold this year, indicating strong demand for gold as a reserve asset, contributing to long-term price support [11]. - Physical investment demand remains robust, with demand for gold bars and coins increasing by 11% year-on-year in Q2 [12]. Group 3: Jewelry Demand and Market Signals - Although global jewelry demand was weak in Q2 due to high prices, early signs of recovery are noted, particularly with increased gold imports in India in July, suggesting potential rebound in demand [14]. Group 4: Silver Outlook - Morgan Stanley sets a target price of $40.9/oz for silver, with cautious optimism due to potential upward price movement despite concerns over supply and demand dynamics [3][16]. - Industrial demand for silver remains strong, with a 40% year-on-year increase in solar cell production in China, while Mexican silver production has declined by 7% year-on-year, creating conditions for potential price increases [16].

Core Viewpoint - Multiple favorable macro catalysts are converging to create a "perfect storm" for gold and silver prices, with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, a weakening dollar, ETF inflows, and a recovery in physical demand providing strong support for precious metals [3][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The primary catalyst is the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut, with expectations of a 25 basis point reduction in the upcoming meeting on September 16-17, 2025, and another cut by the end of the year [6][7]. - Historical data indicates that gold prices typically rise by an average of 6% within 60 days following the start of a rate cut cycle, with some periods seeing increases as high as 14% [6][7]. Group 2: Dollar Weakness - The ongoing weakness of the dollar is another critical support factor, as gold prices have shown a strong negative correlation with the dollar index (DXY) this year [3][7]. Group 3: ETF and Central Bank Demand - There has been a significant turnaround in market sentiment, with global gold ETFs recording a net inflow of approximately 440 tons this year after four consecutive years of outflows, indicating a resurgence of institutional investor interest in gold [10]. - Central banks have also been strong buyers of gold, with net purchases totaling 415 tons this year, contributing to a stable long-term support for gold prices [11]. Group 4: Physical Investment Demand - Demand for gold bars and coins increased by 11% year-on-year in the second quarter, reflecting strong interest from individual investors seeking to hedge risks and preserve value [12]. - Although global jewelry demand was weak due to high prices, early signs of recovery are emerging, particularly with increased gold imports in India, suggesting potential rebounds in jewelry demand as consumers adapt to new price levels [14]. Group 5: Silver Outlook - Morgan Stanley's target price for silver is set at $40.9 per ounce, with cautious optimism regarding its potential for exceeding this target due to strong industrial demand and a decline in silver production from Mexico [17]. - Despite concerns about previous overbuilding in solar facilities in China, the stable growth trajectory of solar cell output, which has increased by approximately 40% year-on-year, indicates robust underlying industrial demand for silver [17].