1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, suggesting going long on gold; for silver, considering the increase in London inventory and the change in industrial demand, it is recommended to go short on silver at high prices or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. - For base metals, copper is recommended to be bought at low prices; aluminum is expected to fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see; alumina is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see; industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate between 7000 - 7600 yuan, and it is advisable to wait and see; lithium carbonate may be short - sold at high prices in the long - term; polysilicon can consider anti - arbitrage strategies and short - selling on rebounds [1][2][3]. - For the black industry, it is recommended to chase long on the rebar 2510 contract in the short - term; for iron ore, it is advisable to wait and see; for coking coal, it is advisable to wait and see and try to chase long on the coking coal 2509 contract in the short - term [4]. - In the agricultural product market, soybeans are expected to fluctuate; corn futures prices are expected to fluctuate strongly; sugar is recommended to be short - sold at high prices; cotton is advisable to wait and see; palm oil has no major contradictions currently; eggs and hogs are expected to fluctuate, and apples are advisable to wait and see [5][6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, LLDPE is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and be short - sold at high prices in the long - term; PVC is advisable to wait and see and sell call options above 4850; PTA can be short - sold on processing fees at high prices; rubber is advisable to use an interval trading strategy; glass is recommended to sell call options above 1250; PP is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and be short - sold at high prices in the long - term; MEG is expected to be strong in the short - term, but long positions should be carefully considered; crude oil should be short - sold at high prices; styrene is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and be short - sold at high prices in the long - term; soda ash is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and call options can be sold; caustic soda is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pre - market Commodity Futures 3.1.1 Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Spot gold fell by more than 1% last Friday, while spot silver continued its upward trend, rising by more than 1.4% before a slight decline [1]. - **News**: Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will visit the UK from June 8th to 13th and hold the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism; the People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for the 7th consecutive month, with a month - on - month increase of 60,000 ounces, and the increase rate continues to slow down; Japan's chief trade negotiator and Minister of Economic Revitalization Akera Masaru is going to the US for the fifth round of Japan - US tariff negotiations [1]. - **Economic Data**: In May, the US non - farm payrolls increased by 139,000, the lowest since February, although higher than market expectations, but the data for the previous two months was revised down by a total of 95,000; the unemployment rate was 4.2%, with an unexpected increase in wages but a shrinking labor force; US consumer credit in April doubled to $17.9 billion, with student loans soaring to a record high of $1.8 trillion; from January to March 2025, the global real estate investment increased by 34% year - on - year, and the real estate investment in Japan exceeded 2 trillion yen, reaching a quarterly record high, a 23% increase compared with the same period last year [1]. - **Inventory Data**: Domestic gold ETFs flowed in again the previous day. COMEX gold inventory was 1191 tons with little change, SHFE gold inventory was 17 tons with a slight increase, and London's gold inventory in May was 8598 tons; SHFE silver inventory was 1107 tons, an increase of 20 tons from the previous day, SGE silver inventory decreased by 49 tons to 1347 tons last week, COMEX silver inventory was 15413 tons, a decrease of 13 tons from the previous day, and London's inventory in May increased by more than 500 tons to 23367 tons; India's silver imports in March decreased to about 120 tons. In April, Switzerland's gold imports from the US increased significantly, and the US market continued to outflow [1]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, so it is recommended to go long on gold; for silver, considering the increase in London inventory and the change in industrial demand, it is recommended to go short on silver at high prices or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. 3.1.2 Base Metals - **Copper** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, copper prices fluctuated strongly [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Copper prices are in a state of strong overseas and weak domestic. The weakening of the US dollar index supports copper prices, but domestic demand has slowed down, the spot premium has weakened, and the structure has weakened. London inventory has continued to decline, with the cancellation ratio exceeding 60%, and the back has reached over $70. In addition, the phone call between Chinese and US leaders has boosted market risk appetite [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy at low prices [2]. - **Aluminum** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2507 contract increased by 0.30% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 20,070 yuan/ton, with a domestic 3 - month spread of 310 yuan/ton, and the LME price was $2450/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In terms of supply, electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, and the operating capacity has increased slightly. In terms of demand, the operating rate of aluminum products has decreased slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price of alumina is falling, and profits are shifting to the electrolytic aluminum end. Supply may maintain high - load production, while downstream consumption is in the off - season, and the operating rate of some sectors continues to decline. However, low inventory provides support at the bottom, and prices are expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to wait and see [2][3]. - **Alumina** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the closing price of the alumina 2509 contract decreased by 1.43% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 2901 yuan/ton, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of 335 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In terms of supply, the复产 and new production capacities are continuously being released, and the operating capacity has increased. In terms of demand, electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, and the operating capacity is stable [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The release of alumina's复产 and new production capacities and the accumulation of social inventory have increased supply pressure. Short - sellers are taking the opportunity to push down prices. In the short term, the game between buyers and sellers has intensified. Under the expectation of overall supply - demand surplus, prices may fluctuate weakly, and technical rebounds should be guarded against during the process. It is advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the main 07 contract opened higher and then fluctuated, closing at 7290 yuan/ton, an increase of 155 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The position decreased by 22,773 lots to 161,192 lots. Today, the warehouse receipt decreased by 746 lots to 60,573 lots [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the spot price continued to decline, with a narrowing decline. There was no obvious contraction in the supply end, and the number of open furnaces changed little this week. The market is pessimistic about the continuous decline of inventory. On the demand side, the output of polysilicon in June may increase slightly compared with May. Pay attention to the resumption of production and operation of enterprises after the holiday. The output of silicone has increased slightly, and the prices in the industrial chain have stopped falling. The operating rate of aluminum alloys is relatively stable [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: In the short term, domestic macro - sentiment fluctuates greatly. When the valuation is low, it is easily disturbed by market sentiment. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate between 7000 - 7600 yuan. It is advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the main 2507 contract closed at 60,440 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.6% compared with the previous trading day [3]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the output in June is high, and the expectation of production reduction is weak. SMM expects the output of lithium carbonate in June to be 78,875 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87%. The index of imported spodumene concentrate fell further to $626/ton yesterday, and the profit of producing lithium carbonate from purchased spodumene has been greatly repaired, with a weak expectation of production reduction. The output this week was 17,471 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.37%. On the demand side, the overall demand is weak, and the long - term expectation is pessimistic. The consumption of new energy vehicles is lower than expected. According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, the wholesale sales of new energy vehicles in May were 1.24 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 9%, while the wholesale sales in April were 1.14 million, a year - on - year increase of 42%. The consumption has recovered month - on - month, but the growth rate is still slow. The consumption electronics market is pessimistic due to the exhaustion of national subsidies in various regions. The demand for energy storage has been released in advance due to the "new - old cut - off" in Document No. 136, and the demand expectation in the second half of the year has weakened significantly. Social inventory is high and showing an upward trend, reaching 132,432 tons (+861 tons), and the warehouse receipt on Friday decreased slightly to 33,309 lots (-12 lots) [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the strong expectation of demand supports prices to fluctuate. The significant repair of lithium salt production profits and the weak reality of rapid production increase make it highly likely that there will still be a surplus in June. Attention should be paid to the fulfillment of demand; in the long term, the key to reversing the surplus pattern of lithium salts still lies in the supply side. In the short term, affected by capital and the macro - environment, prices may deviate from fundamentals and show a slight rebound. Short - term profit - taking can be considered, and then short - sell distant - month contracts at high prices [3]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the main 07 contract opened higher and then fluctuated downward, closing at 34,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The position decreased by 623 lots to 65,179 lots. The 06 contract has entered the delivery month, and liquidity has weakened. Currently, the contracts still maintain a contango structure. The warehouse receipt has increased to 2460 lots (7380 tons) [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the spot price remained stable. On the supply side, the output in the first week of June decreased slightly, and there is an expectation of production resumption in June, so the output may increase slightly. The industry still has nearly 270,000 tons of inventory. On the demand side, the silicon wafer production schedule data has recovered, but the overall procurement of polysilicon is limited. A photovoltaic industry conference will be held in Shanghai next week. Pay attention to the communication at the conference [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: This week, the warehouse receipt has been increasing continuously, and the logic of warehouse receipt game has weakened. If the warehouse receipt registration exceeds expectations, an anti - arbitrage strategy between 07 and distant - month contracts can be considered. For a single - side position, if there is no further production reduction news, a short - sell on the rebound of the 07 contract can be considered [3]. 3.2 Black Industry - **Rebar** - **Market Performance**: The main rebar 2510 contract fluctuated weakly, closing at 2965 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day's closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply and demand of steel may deteriorate seasonally. The supply and demand of building materials are both weak, but benefiting from low production, the inventory pressure is small; the demand for plates has deteriorated slightly. In the environment of the withdrawal of national subsidies, domestic demand may further weaken, but direct exports remain high. Overall, the supply and demand of steel are relatively balanced, and the contradiction is not significant. Steel futures have been at a discount for two consecutive weeks, and the margin has widened. The news of the upcoming China - US economic and trade consultation is expected to slightly improve market sentiment. It is expected that steel futures prices will fluctuate strongly this week [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to chase long on the rebar 2510 contract in the short - term. The reference range for RB10 is 2950 - 3000 [4]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Performance**: The main iron ore 2509 contract fluctuated weakly, closing at $704/ton, a decrease of $4.5/ton compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply and demand of iron ore remain moderately strong. According to the data of the Steel Union, the pig iron output has decreased slightly month - on - month but still maintains a certain year - on - year increase. After the third round of price cuts, the profit margin of steel mills has expanded, and subsequent production will be mainly stable; the supply is in line with seasonal rules, with a slight year - on - year decrease. The supply and demand of iron ore are moderately strong in the short - term, but the medium - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. Iron ore maintains a forward discount structure, but the absolute level remains at a relatively low level in the same period of history, with a neutral valuation. The news of the upcoming China - US economic and trade consultation is expected to slightly improve market sentiment. It is expected that iron ore futures prices will fluctuate strongly this week [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is advisable to wait and see. The reference range for I09 is 700 - 720 [4]. - **Coking Coal** - **Market Performance**: The main coking coal 2509 contract fluctuated weakly, closing at 778 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Pig iron output decreased slightly by 0.1 million tons to 2.418 million tons month - on - month, with a year - on - year increase of 61,000 tons. The profit margin of steel mills has narrowed, and subsequent production will be mainly stable. The second round of price cuts has been implemented, and the third round of price cuts has been proposed. In terms of supply, the inventory at each link is differentiated. The coking coal inventory and inventory days of steel mills and coking plants remain at a relatively low level in the same period of history, while the inventory at the mine mouth, ports and other links continues to remain at a historical high. At the same time, production has decreased month - on - month, and overall supply and demand are still relatively loose, but the fundamentals are gradually improving. Futures are basically at par with the spot, and the forward curve is gradually flattening. The news of the upcoming China - US economic and trade consultation is expected to slightly improve market sentiment [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is advisable to wait and see and try to chase long on the coking coal 2509 contract in the short - term. The reference range for JM09 is 770 - 810 [4]. 3.3 Agricultural Product Market - **Soybean Meal** - **Market Performance**: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans continued to rise, digesting the optimistic expectation of China - US trade [5]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the supply in South America is loose in the short - term, while the sowing of new US soybeans is in the later stage. On the demand side, South America dominates in the short - term, and the high - frequency demand for US soybeans is seasonally weak [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans are expected to fluctuate; in China, there will be more soybean arrivals in the later stage, with a weak basis, and the single - side price will follow the international market. Attention should be paid to later trade policies and US soybean production [5]. - **Corn** - **Market Performance**: The corn 2507 contract rose

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The soybean market is influenced by factors such as rainfall in the US, Brazilian soybean sales, and trade relations. The new - year US soybean may be in a process of bottom - building, and the domestic soybean meal market has a complex situation with external cost increase and domestic supply pressure [2][3][5]. - The palm oil market has short - term support from low inventories in some regions and tariff cuts, but the price is under pressure if the production continues to recover. The overall trend of the oil market is expected to be volatile [6][7][8]. - The sugar market may weaken in the future as the international supply situation eases and domestic imports are expected to increase [10][11]. - The cotton market is expected to have a short - term volatile trend with marginal improvement in fundamentals and a still - weak overall commodity market [13][15]. - The egg market is expected to be stable and weak in the short term, and the trading strategy is to short on rallies for the near - month contracts [17][18]. - The pig market is expected to be weak in the short term, with near - month contracts having limited decline due to the discount, and the far - month contracts waiting for short - selling opportunities at high prices [20][21]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/M粕类 - **Market Situation**: US soybean rose slightly on Friday due to Sino - US contact and local drought. Domestic soybean meal spot was stable or slightly up on the weekend, with high supply and weak trading. The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is expected to continue to accumulate [2]. - **Factors Affecting the Market**: Future rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas is mixed, and Brazilian soybean premiums may rise. The 25/26 US soybean area is decreasing, making the total output likely to decline. The domestic soybean meal supply pressure is increasing, but the inventory is low due to previous delayed start - up [3][5]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the 09 soybean meal contract, pay attention to possible weather stimuli from the external market at the lower end of the cost range and whether domestic pressure and bullish factors are fully traded at the upper end [5]. Oils - **Important Information**: Malaysian palm oil production and exports increased in May and early June. Brazilian soybean sales are delayed. The US soybean yield and planting area estimates are released. The palm oil inventory in some regions is low, and India cut the palm oil import tariff [6][7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The oil market is expected to be volatile, with bearish factors such as the decline of the crude oil center and the possible lower - than - expected US biodiesel policy, and bullish factors such as low inventories in some regions and tariff cuts [8]. Sugar - **Key Information**: Zhengzhou sugar futures were strong on Friday. Spot sugar prices in different regions had different trends. Brazilian sugar exports to China increased in May, and the waiting and in - transit volume to China remained unchanged [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: The international sugar supply may be easing, and domestic sugar prices are likely to weaken as imports increase [11]. Cotton - **Key Information**: Zhengzhou cotton futures rebounded on Friday. The spot price increased slightly, and the spinning and weaving factory start - up rates decreased slightly. The national cotton commercial inventory decreased year - on - year [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: The cotton market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with marginal improvement in fundamentals and a still - weak overall commodity market [15]. Eggs - **Spot Information**: Egg prices were stable or slightly down on the weekend, with sufficient supply and cautious downstream procurement. The cold - storage egg reserves increased as prices fell [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: The egg market is expected to be stable and weak. For the near - month contracts, short on rallies, and pay attention to the support of far - month contracts when the position is large [18]. Pigs - **Spot Information**: Pig prices were mainly down on the weekend, with sufficient supply and weak terminal demand due to rising temperatures [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: The near - month pig contracts are expected to be weakly volatile, and the far - month contracts wait for short - selling opportunities at high prices [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market risk appetite has rebounded, with most stocks rising, bond yields mostly increasing, and the US bond yield reaching 4.5%. The US dollar index dropped 0.14% to 99.2, and most non - US currencies appreciated. Gold prices rose 0.6% to $3,310 per ounce, the VIX index fell to 16.77, and the spot commodity index closed higher, with Brent crude rising 6.7% [1][5][8] - The Trump administration's tariff policy continues to disrupt the market. The US economic data is mixed, with the May ISM manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs falling short of expectations, showing stagflation risks. The May US non - farm payroll report supports the Fed to continue to wait and see. Short - term monetary policy is more concerned about inflation than the job market, and the Fed is expected to pause rate cuts in June [2][10] - The ECB cut interest rates by 25bp to 2%, but the stance is hawkish. The market expects the ECB to pause rate cuts in July [2][10] - The May non - farm payroll data was better than expected, indicating that the labor market remains resilient. Short - term dollar index is expected to oscillate [35][36] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite rebounded. Most stocks rose, and bond yields mostly increased, with the US bond yield reaching 4.5%. The US dollar index dropped 0.14% to 99.2, and most non - US currencies appreciated. Gold prices rose 0.6% to $3,310 per ounce, the VIX index fell to 16.77, and the spot commodity index closed higher, with Brent crude rising 6.9% to $68.16 per barrel [1][5][8] 3.2 Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 3.2.1 Stock Market - Global stocks mostly rose. The S&P 500 index rose 1.5%, the Eurozone stocks mostly closed higher, emerging market stocks were mixed, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.13%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 2.16%, and the Nikkei 225 index fell 0.59% [9][10] - The Trump administration's tariff policy and the upcoming Sino - US second - round negotiation affected the market sentiment. The US economic data is mixed, and the non - farm payroll report supports the Fed to continue to wait and see [10] - The domestic stock market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [12] 3.2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly increased, with the 10 - year US bond yield reaching 4.5%, and most Eurozone countries' bond yields rising. Emerging market bond yields mostly declined [13][17][19] - The May US non - farm payroll report increased market concerns about inflation. The ECB cut rates but the stance is hawkish, and the short - term risk of European and American bond yields is upward [18] - The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield slightly decreased to 1.69%, and the Sino - US interest rate spread inverted and widened to 281bp. The domestic bond market is oscillating [20] 3.2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index dropped 0.14% to 99.2, and most non - US currencies appreciated. The offshore RMB rose 0.23%, the euro rose 0.43%, the pound rose 0.51%, the yen fell 0.58%, and other currencies showed different trends [24][26][27] 3.2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold rose 0.6% to $3,310 per ounce, and the price is oscillating. The short - term gold price lacks upward momentum and is still in an oscillating range [30] - Brent crude rose 6.7% to $68.16 per barrel. Market risk appetite rebounded, industrial products rebounded, and the commodity spot index closed higher [30] 3.3 Hotspot Tracking - The May non - farm payroll data was better than expected, indicating that the labor market remains resilient. The economic fundamentals are deteriorating, and the dollar index is expected to oscillate in the short term [31][35][36] 3.4 Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: China's May CPI and import - export data; US May New York Fed inflation expectations [37] - Tuesday: US May NFIB small business confidence index; China's May financial data [37] - Wednesday: US May CPI [37] - Thursday: US May PPI, initial jobless claims; 10 - year US Treasury bond auction [37] - Friday: US June University of Michigan consumer confidence and inflation expectations [37]

北京商报讯（记者 岳品瑜 董晗萱）6月6日，在"2025中银全球走进昌平——融通世界·智启未来"活动上，中银证券首席 经济学家徐高阐述了其对于当前中国经济形势的观点及未来展望。 近期中美经贸高层互动释放积极信号，但贸易战的深层矛盾与影响仍在持续发酵。徐高指出，特朗普政府发起贸易战的 根本目标在于压缩美国巨额贸易逆差，其逻辑是将制造业岗位流失归咎于贸易伙伴。然而，历史数据揭示了一个关键矛 盾：美国的贸易赤字问题早在20世纪80年代就已凸显，远早于中国深度融入全球贸易体系，将赤字主因归于中国缺乏充 分依据。 值得注意的是，中国拥有显著的内部缓冲空间。徐高表示，近年来经济下行压力主要源于国内周期性因素，特别是房地 产市场的调整。目前，一系列稳地产政策已开始显现效果。只要房地产市场逐步企稳，国内巨大的内需潜力足以缓冲外 需走弱的影响。中国作为内需潜力远未充分释放的大型经济体，在政策刺激方面拥有广阔的回旋余地。 面对这场由美方挑起的贸易摩擦，中国需做好"持久战"的心理与战略准备。"中美之间正在进行'懦夫博弈'，狭路相逢勇 者胜，'下策'绝不可能被接受。"徐高强调，基于过往交锋经验，对特朗普政府的极限施压策略采取退让姿态 ...

聚烯烃：短期或反弹，但趋势仍有压力 国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2025年6月8日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 聚丙烯供需 02 聚乙烯供需 03 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 LLDPE观点：短期震荡为主 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 5 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 PP：短期或反弹 但趋势仍有压力 ◆ 首先、贸易战因素变换频繁，正因如此当下市场当方面持续下跌在宏观端概率不大，反而在谈判临近尾 声需要警惕。在供应端，6月检修仍偏高，但目前检修量不足以改变供需格局，新增产能大大抵消了供应 端的努力。成本端仍有压力因此短期市场或以震荡市为主，但趋势仍有压力； Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 ◆ ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that while U.S. stock markets are experiencing a strong upward trend, there are concerns about potential profit-taking risks due to economic uncertainties and trade tensions [1][6][7] - The S&P 500 index has regained the 6000-point mark, approaching the historical high set in February, driven by robust non-farm payroll data that has boosted market confidence [1][6] - Several institutions have raised their year-end targets for major U.S. stock indices, with Deutsche Bank increasing the S&P 500 target from 6150 to 6550, although they caution about potential instability in future upward trends [6][7] Group 2 - Recent data suggests signs of cooling in the U.S. economy, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool revising Q2 GDP growth down from 4.6% to 3.8% [3] - The labor market shows signs of weakness, with a decline in labor demand and companies hesitant to hire due to trade war uncertainties [3][4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to a critical level of 4.50%, driven by better-than-expected employment reports, which could indicate improved long-term growth expectations [8]

Economic Performance Overview - The economic performance of the three major global economic centers for Q1 2025 has been officially released, with the US GDP showing a slight quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.06% but a year-on-year increase of 2%, reaching $73,231 billion [1] - The European Union's nominal GDP for Q1 2025 was €46,123.756 billion (approximately $48,538 billion), reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.6% after adjusting for price fluctuations [3] - China's economy grew by 5.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, significantly outperforming both the US and EU, driven by state-led large project investments and preemptive export activities due to trade war concerns [3] Comparative Analysis - The US economy remains more dynamic and innovative compared to the EU, which is experiencing structural weaknesses due to stagnant production efficiency and high energy costs [3] - China's nominal GDP in Q1 2025 reached ¥318,758 billion, but when converted to USD using the exchange rate method, it amounted to only $44,420.5 billion, falling behind both the US and EU [4] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that the purchasing power parity (PPP) ratio for the Chinese yuan against the US dollar in 2025 is 3.43, indicating that goods priced at $100 in the US would cost ¥343 in China [6][8] GDP Calculation Methods - The article discusses three methods for calculating GDP: exchange rate method, purchasing power parity, and a mixed method that combines both [5][11] - Under the purchasing power method, China's Q1 2025 GDP would be $92,932.36 billion, which is 2.1 times higher than the exchange rate method figure [8] - The mixed method, which allocates 60% to the exchange rate method and 40% to the purchasing power method, results in China's GDP being $63,928 billion for Q1 2025, surpassing the EU's GDP of $61,576.4 billion [12][13] GDP Rankings - According to the exchange rate method, the GDP rankings for Q1 2025 are: US ($73,231 billion), EU ($48,538 billion), and China ($44,420.5 billion) [12] - When using the purchasing power method, the rankings change to: China ($92,932.36 billion), US ($73,231 billion), and EU ($70,268.72 billion) [12] - The mixed method rankings place the US first ($73,231 billion), followed by China ($63,928 billion) and the EU ($61,576.4 billion) [13]

Group 1 - The U.S. beef may enter Australia for the first time since 2003 as the Australian government prepares to negotiate tariffs with Trump, potentially easing the ban on U.S. beef imports due to mad cow disease risks [1] - The Australian government is pushing for the U.S. to lift a 50% tariff on Australian steel and aluminum, as well as a 10% tariff on all other goods, with Trade Minister Don Farrell requesting the removal of tariffs on all Australian products [1] - Trump has publicly commented on Australia's ban on U.S. beef, making it a focal point in tariff negotiations, indicating that the U.S. is also imposing similar restrictions [1] Group 2 - Amid the ongoing U.S.-China trade war, Australian beef is increasingly replacing U.S. beef in Chinese supermarkets, with a notable consumer preference for Australian beef due to perceived quality [3] - Data from Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) shows a significant increase in Australian beef exports to China, with February and March exports rising nearly 40% year-on-year, and April exports reaching a record 37,000 tons [6] - The U.S. beef export trade to China, which once reached $1.6 billion, has nearly stalled due to mutual tariffs, with most U.S. beef products now unable to enter the Chinese market [6]

欧洲央行执委Isabel Schnabel称，对美联储与欧洲央行政策将长期分化的预期是错误的。"我预计贸易战 将对全球需求和供应都产生冲击——我们可以讨论这两者对通胀的影响哪个更大，因为这将决定最终的 净影响，"Schnabel周六表示，"但无论如何我都预计，不会发生持续脱钩这种事，市场定价也反映出了 这一点。" ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. International Trade Court's ruling against the Trump administration's tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act has significant implications for U.S. trade policy and global trade dynamics [1][4][6]. Summary by Sections Trump's Tariff Policy - In February, the Trump administration imposed tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, citing the need to protect domestic industries and adjust trade balances [1][3]. - The tariffs included a 10% baseline tariff on all imports starting April 5, with higher tariffs for countries with significant trade deficits, set to begin on April 9 [1][3]. Impact of Tariffs - Despite a 12% decrease in Chinese exports to the U.S. from 2018 to 2024, the U.S. trade deficit with China increased by 11% to $361 billion in 2024 compared to 2017 [3]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its global economic growth forecast down from 3.3% to 2.8% for 2025, reflecting the negative impact of the trade war [3]. Court Ruling - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize the president to impose global tariffs, leading to the permanent prohibition of the tariffs [4][6]. - The ruling was initiated by lawsuits from five small businesses and twelve states, arguing that the tariffs were enacted without congressional approval [4][6]. Implications for the Trump Administration - The ruling represents a significant setback for the Trump administration, which relied on tariffs as a key tool for negotiating trade deals and promoting its "America First" policy [6]. - The White House announced plans to appeal the ruling, questioning the legitimacy of judicial intervention in national emergency policies [6]. Broader Political and Global Trade Impact - The ruling intensifies the conflict between executive and judicial powers in the U.S., as tariff imposition is constitutionally a congressional power [8]. - While the ruling may create short-term uncertainty in U.S. trade policy, it could potentially stabilize global trade in the long run, depending on the outcome of the appeal [8].