Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the domestic pure benzene has a large real - time arrival pressure, with port inventory accelerating accumulation. The overseas gasoline shortage has passed, but the price difference between the US and South Korea in the pure benzene market is still being repaired. Downstream提货 is weak, and downstream开工 is further decreasing in the off - season. Styrene maintains low - load maintenance, CPL开工 drops to the lowest level of the year, phenol开工 rebounds, and aniline and adipic acid开工 fluctuate within a range [3]. - For styrene, port inventory further declines, and the port basis remains strong. Styrene maintains low - level operation, port inventory continues to decrease, and downstream提货 is acceptable. The downstream开工 shows differentiation. EPS开工 rebounds slightly in the off - season but still has inventory pressure; ABS开工 decreases due to continuous finished - product inventory pressure; PS开工 continues to rise at the end of the year as the finished - product inventory pressure eases [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - The pure benzene main contract basis is - 130 yuan/ton (+12), and the spot - M2 paper cargo spread is - 150 yuan/ton (+35 yuan/ton). The EB main contract basis is 156 yuan/ton (- 48 yuan/ton) [1]. 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene CFR China processing fee is 116 US dollars/ton (+2 US dollars/ton), and FOB South Korea processing fee is 113 US dollars/ton (+1 US dollar/ton). The pure benzene US - South Korea price difference is 195.0 US dollars/ton (+14.0 US dollars/ton). Styrene non - integrated production profit is - 140 yuan/ton (- 121 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene port inventory is 26.00 million tons (+3.60 million tons), and styrene East China port inventory is 146,800 tons (- 13,800 tons), and the East China commercial inventory is 87,800 tons (- 8,600 tons). Pure benzene开工 rate data is not provided, and styrene开工 rate is 68.9% (+1.6%) [1]. 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS production profit is 191 yuan/ton (+153 yuan/ton), PS production profit is - 9 yuan/ton (+153 yuan/ton), and ABS production profit is - 776 yuan/ton (+89 yuan/ton). EPS开工 rate is 56.36% (+1.61%), PS开工 rate is 59.00% (+1.40%), and ABS开工 rate is 68.30% (- 2.90%) [2]. 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam production profit is - 360 yuan/ton (+90), phenol - ketone production profit is - 952 yuan/ton (+25), aniline production profit is 848 yuan/ton (+95), and adipic acid production profit is - 1,129 yuan/ton (+59). Caprolactam开工 rate is 79.15% (- 7.53%), phenol开工 rate is 82.00% (+1.00%), aniline开工 rate is 77.23% (+0.04%), and adipic acid开工 rate is 60.00% (+0.60%) [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: None - Basis and Inter - period: Conduct inter - period positive arbitrage for EB2601 - EB2602 at low prices. - Cross - variety: Expand the spread of EB2601 - BZ2603 at low prices [4].

化工日报 | 2025-12-11 EG主港延续累库,检修有所增多 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3682元/吨（较前一交易日变动-9元/吨，幅度-0.24%），EG华东市场现货价3668 元/吨（较前一交易日变动+22元/吨，幅度+0.60%），EG华东现货基差-11元/吨（环比+0元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-94美元/吨（环比-4美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-1155 元/吨（环比-17元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为81.9万吨（环比+6.6万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为71.9万吨（环比+1.1万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数16.3万吨，副 港到港量5.1万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数15.5万吨，副港到港量2万吨，整体偏高，预计主港将继续累库。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，随着检修兑现，国内乙二醇负荷高位下降，近端供应压力有所缓解，但1月又将恢 复高供应，后续关注价格下降后乙二醇装置新增检修情况；海外供应方面，中东货源供应高位，月内远洋货到港 偏 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-12-11 厂内库存继续去化 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-12-10，尿素主力收盘1645元/吨（+2）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1690 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1700元/吨（+10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1680元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：55 元/吨（+8）；河南基差：45元/吨（+8）；江苏基差：35元/吨（-2）；尿素生产利润170元/吨（+10），出口利润885 元/吨（+8）。 供应端：截至2025-12-10，企业产能利用率81.82%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为123.42 万吨（-5.63），港口样本 库存量为10.50 万吨（+0.50）。 需求端：截至2025-12-10，复合肥产能利用率40.53%（+3.47%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为61.66%（+0.86%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.94日（-0.41）。 尿素部分地区低价成交好转，持续性待观察。供应端四季度气头检修12月逐渐开始，前期煤头企业检修逐步恢复， 目前2025年新增产能全部投产，尿素供应量不减。需求端当前淡储采购进行中，复合肥东北、湖北开工 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-11 美联储利息决议公布在即，镍不锈钢震荡运行 镍品种 市场分析 2025-12-10日沪镍主力合约2601开于117620元/吨，收于117090元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-0.56%，当日成交量 为120019（+17609）手，持仓量为102583（-5403）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约震荡下行，延续近期弱势格局，整体呈现高位承压、逐级下行的态势，成交量较前 日略有放大。主要受供需过剩、下游需求疲软和美联储决议前谨慎情绪影响，预计将继续在11.4-12万元/吨区间弱 势震荡。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，镍矿市场维持平静，但未有成交落地，镍矿价格企稳运行。菲律宾方面，矿山多履 行前期订单出货为主。矿山多挺价心态。下游镍铁价格回暖，国内工厂多需年前备库，对原料镍矿采购压价心态 或将放缓。印尼方面，12月(一期)内贸基准价走跌0.52-0.91美元/湿吨，内贸升水方面，主流升水去至+25，升水区 间多在+25-26。整体镍矿内贸价格有所下跌。 现货方面：金川集团上海市场销售价格121700元/吨，较上一个交易日下跌1,100元/吨。现货交投尚可，各品牌 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The overall terminal demand is average, and the prices of various black building materials show different trends, with some fluctuating up and others down [1][3][5][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3,117 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot-rolled coil closed at 3,282 yuan/ton. The overall spot steel transactions were good, the market rose, and low-price speculation and futures-spot purchases increased [1] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The supply-demand fundamentals of building materials continue to improve. Although consumption has declined, production has also decreased, and inventory pressure has further eased. The improvement of the supply-demand fundamentals of plates is insufficient, and high inventories continue to suppress plate prices. Appropriate production cuts are needed to reduce the pressure of seasonal inventory accumulation in the later stage. With the continuous cooling in various places, the off-season of building material demand has arrived [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral, the trend is expected to be volatile; for cross-period, cross-variety, futures-spot, and options, there are no specific strategies [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The price of iron ore futures rose slightly yesterday. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port were relatively strong. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and quotes mostly followed the market. Steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid needs. The cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major domestic ports was 715,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 37.12% [3] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: This week, the shipment of iron ore increased slightly, and the daily average hot metal output continued to decline. Currently, the iron ore price remains at a relatively high level. However, due to market factors, the inventory of some iron ore varieties is locked, keeping the price high. If external factors are removed later and the inventory is released intensively, the iron ore price will face certain pressure [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral, the trend is expected to be volatile; for cross-variety, cross-period, futures-spot, and options, there are no specific strategies [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated downward yesterday. In the spot market, coal prices in the main production areas continued to decline. Currently, end-users such as the chemical industry maintain on-demand procurement, and most coal mines continue to reduce prices to destock. Some steel mills plan to lower the price of wet-quenched coke. The transaction of imported Mongolian coal continued to be weak, dropping to around 960 yuan/ton [5] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: For coking coal, with the sharp decline in the futures market, the expectation of a decline in coke prices is strong, and the support of rigid demand for raw materials is weak. In the short term, coal prices will still fluctuate weakly and stably. For coke, affected by environmental protection factors, the supply has shrunk slightly. Coupled with the maintenance plans of some steel mills, the demand for coke has weakened. In the future, attention should be paid to the hot metal output and the trend of coking coal prices [5][6] - **Strategy**: For coking coal and coke, the trend is expected to be volatile; for cross-variety, cross-period, futures-spot, and options, there are no specific strategies [7] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the producing areas, coal prices in the main production areas continued to fluctuate downward. Currently, the market is dominated by a wait-and-see attitude. End-users with rigid demand purchase on demand, and some reduce prices and quantities. Under the spread of pessimistic sentiment, coal prices will fluctuate downward in the short term. In the port market, the recent weak trend has continued, and the price center of gravity has continued to move down. The inventory of northern ports has continued to rise, while downstream end-users have not increased their purchases. Traders are pessimistic, and it is still difficult to sell at low prices, with difficult transactions. In terms of imports, both domestic and foreign trade prices have fallen rapidly recently, and the price of imported coal has fallen faster, still maintaining a cost-effective advantage [8] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: Recently, pessimistic sentiment has spread in the market, and coal prices have fluctuated. In the long term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the consumption and restocking of non-power coal [8] - **Strategy**: No specific strategy is provided [8]

日期 2025 年 12 月 11 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 行业 聚烯烃日报 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 | 表1：期货市场行情 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests that due to the rise in US soybean prices, the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) soybean meal futures may follow and rebound. However, the US Department of Agriculture's forecast for US soybean exports in the 2025/26 season may be too high because the Brazilian soybean harvest is approaching [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Data - **Futures**: DCE soybean No.1 2601 closed at 4,161 yuan/ton during the day session, up 75 yuan (+1.84%), and 4,159 yuan at night, up 36 yuan (+0.87%); DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2,754 yuan/ton during the day session, down 17 yuan (-0.61%), and 2,748 yuan at night, down 2 yuan (-0.07%); CBOT soybean 01 closed at 1,092 cents/bushel, up 4.25 cents (+0.39%); CBOT soybean meal 01 closed at $300.9/short ton, down $0.5 (-0.17%) [2]. - **Spot**: In Shandong, the soybean meal price was stable to up 30 yuan/ton, ranging from 3,020 - 3,070 yuan/ton; in East China, it was up 20 - 30 yuan/ton, ranging from 3,020 - 3,080 yuan/ton; in South China, it was up 10 - 60 yuan/ton, ranging from 3,030 - 3,150 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Main Industry Data - The previous trading day's soybean meal inventory was 104.55 tons, compared with 107.34 tons two trading days ago. The previous week's trading volume was 19.77 tons [2]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - On December 10, 2025, CBOT soybean futures closed higher. Private exporters sold 13.6 tons of soybeans to China and 11.9 tons and 21.2 tons to unknown destinations, all for delivery in the 2025/26 season. However, some analysts believe the USDA's forecast for US soybean exports in the 2025/26 season (44.5 million tons) is too high due to the upcoming Brazilian soybean harvest [4]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is +1, and that of soybean No.1 is 0, indicating the price volatility of the main - contract futures on the reporting day [4].

期 货 研 究 2025 年 12 月 11 日 铝：继续震荡 氧化铝：小幅反弹 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 期货研究 【综合快讯】 1. 美联储如期再降息 25 基点，但三票委反对，仍预计明年降息一次，将买短债 400 亿美元；鲍威尔： 购债规模未来几个月或维持在较高水平，劳动力市场逐步降温但慢于预期，目前利率下能耐心等待，关税影 响明年料逐渐消退。（华尔街见闻） | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 21935 | 160 | -5 | 335 | 1390 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 21960 | - | l | ー | l | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2863 | 17 | -35 | ...

＃summary＃ 料油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 业硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 行业 MEG 日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 11 日 每日报告 ...

2025年12月11日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：利空出尽，短期反弹 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆驱动不足，豆油震荡为主 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆收涨，连粕或跟随反弹 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：低位震荡 | 8 | | 棉花：震荡偏强关注下游需求20251211 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：现货震荡 | 10 | | 生猪：已提前交易冬至预期，仓单增量 | 11 | | 花生：关注现货 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 2025 年 12 月 11 日 品 研 究 棕榈油：利空出尽，短期反弹 豆油：美豆驱动不足，豆油震荡为主 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,542 | 涨跌幅 -1.23% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,662 | 涨跌幅 1.40% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ...