Group 1 - The rumor regarding Tangshan's sintering machine production cut of 30% from July 4 to 15 has been confirmed by approximately half of the steel mills, with a likelihood of confirmation from the remaining mills. Current production is 270,000 tons per day with a capacity utilization rate of 83%, which may drop to 70% under the new policy, resulting in a reduction of 30,000 tons per day [1] - In the Ordos region, most coal mines are maintaining stable production, with some previously reduced or shut down mines gradually resuming operations, leading to a recovery in overall coal supply [1] - India's palm oil imports surged by 61% month-on-month in June, reaching 953,000 tons, the highest level in 11 months, while total edible oil imports increased by 30% to 1,530,000 tons, marking a seven-month high [1] Group 2 - As of July 2, 2025, China's methanol port inventory totaled 673,700 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons from the previous period, with East China seeing an increase of 13,500 tons and South China experiencing a decrease of 10,300 tons [2] - The Indonesian government plans to shorten the mining quota (RKAB) duration from three years to one year to improve industry governance and better control coal and mineral supplies [2] - Monitoring by the National Grain and Oil Information Center indicates that soybean procurement for August shipping is nearly complete, with September shipping at nearly 50% and no purchases for October to December shipping, highlighting the need to monitor future purchases and import arrivals of soybeans [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and currently having a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The trading logic of the methanol market has gradually shifted from the macro - level to the fundamentals, with short - term prices expected to fluctuate narrowly [2]. - The urea market is affected by sentiment and marginal improvement in supply - demand, with short - term prices expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [3]. - The short - term fundamentals of the polyolefin market are weak, with the market sentiment of downstream buyers being cautious [4]. - The styrene market has insufficient supply - demand support, and the mainstream prices in various regions have declined [5]. - The PX and PTA markets are expected to have a more relaxed supply - demand pattern in the future, and the processing margin, basis, and monthly spread are under pressure [6]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to fluctuate within a bottom - range [6]. - The short - fiber market has seen a rebound, and attention should be paid to the possibility of inventory accumulation and production cuts [6]. - The bottle - chip market has implemented production cuts to reduce inventory, but the demand is also declining [6]. - The PVC market is expected to fluctuate with costs in the short term and be in a low - level oscillation in the long term [7]. - The caustic soda market is pushed up by costs in the short term and faces supply pressure in the long term [7]. - The glass market has a pattern of high inventory and weak demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - The soda ash market is boosted by macro - sentiment in the short term, but the price is expected to have limited upward movement [8]. Summary by Product Methanol - The main contract of methanol has risen. During the Israel - Iran conflict, the reduction in ship loading in the Middle East was limited. Domestic device operation has increased, and port inventory has accumulated significantly. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate narrowly [2]. Urea - The urea futures price has risen. There is still some agricultural demand, and the inventory of production enterprises has decreased. After the port inspection was relaxed, port inventory has increased. The short - term market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [3]. Polyolefin - The main futures contracts of polyolefins have shown narrow - range consolidation. Petrochemical enterprises have lowered the ex - factory prices of LLDPE, and the market sentiment of downstream buyers is cautious [4]. Styrene - The main futures contract of styrene has fluctuated narrowly around the 5 - day moving average. The supply of pure benzene is expected to increase, and the styrene market has insufficient supply - demand support [5]. Polyester - PX and PTA prices have oscillated. The polyester operation rate has slightly decreased. The supply - demand pattern is expected to become more relaxed in the future. Ethylene glycol prices have rebounded due to overseas device outages. The short - fiber market has rebounded, and the bottle - chip market has implemented production cuts [6]. Chlor - Alkali - The PVC market has high supply pressure, weak domestic demand, and the export orders may weaken. The caustic soda market is pushed up by costs in the short term and faces supply pressure in the long term [7]. Glass and Soda Ash - The glass market has a pattern of high inventory and weak demand, and the price has risen due to policy factors. The soda ash market is boosted by macro - sentiment, but the demand is expected to decline [8].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 按照 | CPC 月度展望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利，美豆种植天气基本顺利。南美方 面，基本丰产定局。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆，豆粕进入累库阶段。饲料企 业库存补库大幅恢复。6 月美农报告中性。美豆种植天气顺利，市场预计美豆种植 | | 豆粕 | 短线反弹 | 面积环比增加，利空市场情绪，本周豆粕预计继续维持累库，基本面偏空。美豆种 | | | | 植面积环比小幅下降，产量减少影响幅度在 15 万吨以下，季度库存高于预期，整 | | | | 体数据影响有限。市场继续围绕基本面波动。昨日豆粕小幅收涨，反弹对待，3-5 | | | | 日内以 10 日均线以下震荡运行为主。主力【2950，2980】 | | | | 目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存暂无压力，商业菜粕库存偏高利空近月 7 月菜粕价格。6 月 | | | 至 | 8 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，加上加籽进口利润不佳，长期进口量预期偏低，供 | | | | 应展望压力减轻，加籽的强势叠加国内菜籽进口偏低，对菜粕价格构成较强支持作 | | 菜粕 | 短线反弹 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot market conditions, important fundamental information, macro - economic news, capital flows, and potential arbitrage opportunities in the agricultural and energy sectors. It covers key commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and their related products, as well as major currencies and shipping freight rates. [1][2][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Conditions - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts are reported, including Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, US soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 09 (BMD) is 3990.00, with a previous day's decline of 0.43% and an overnight increase of 0.50%. [1] - **Currency Exchange Rates**: The latest exchange rates and their changes are provided for major currencies such as the US dollar index, Chinese yuan, Malaysian ringgit, and others. For instance, the US dollar index is at 96.63, down 0.14%. [1] Spot Market Conditions - **Futures - Spot Price Relationship**: The spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2509, DCE soybean oil 2509, and DCE soybean meal 2509 in different regions are presented. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2509 in North China is 8590, with a basis of 300 and a basis change of 50. [2] - **Imported Soybean Quotes**: The CNF premiums and quotes for imported soybeans from different origins (US Gulf, US West, Brazil, and Argentina) are given. Brazil's CNF quote is 463 dollars/ton with a premium of 232 cents/bushel. [3] Important Fundamental Information 产区天气 - **US Soybean Main - Producing States**: The future weather outlook (July 6 - 10) for US soybean main - producing states shows that both precipitation and temperature are above normal levels in most states. The Midwest also has local showers and high temperatures in the coming week, with overall favorable but varied weather conditions. [4][6] 国际供需 - **Palm Oil**: In June 2025, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 0.65% compared to the same period last month according to SPPOMA. In May, Indonesia's palm oil exports increased by 53% year - on - year, and the export value soared by nearly 71% to 1.85 billion dollars. [8][9] - **Soybeans**: The US soybean crushing volume in May 2025 was 6.11 million tons. The crushing profit in the week ending June 27 decreased by 8%. StoneX raised Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production forecast to 168.75 million tons. [9][10] - **Other**: Argentina's agricultural exports in June increased by 87% year - on - year. The EU's imports of palm oil, soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed showed different trends in the 2024/25 season compared to the previous year. [11] 国内供需 - **Trading Volume**: On July 1, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 4100 tons, up 413% from the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased by 49,300 tons. [14] - **Inventory**: As of July 1, the national soybean oil port inventory was 857,000 tons, an increase of 52,000 tons from the previous week. [14] - **Agricultural Product Prices**: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" decreased slightly on July 1. The prices of pork, beef, mutton, eggs, and white - striped chickens also declined. [14] Macro - economic News 国际要闻 - **Interest Rate Expectations**: The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 78.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 21.2%. [16] - **Economic Data**: The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in June was 49, and the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 52.9. The number of job openings in May was 7.769 million. [16] - **Policy and Trade**: Trump is willing to postpone the deadline for the "Big and Beautiful" bill, and the Senate passed it. US officials are seeking to narrow the scope of the trade agreement, with a deadline of July 9. [16] - **Central Bank Speeches**: At the European Central Bank Forum, central bank governors from the US, Europe, the UK, Japan, and South Korea expressed their views on monetary policy. [17] - **Inflation Data**: The eurozone's CPI monthly rate in June was 0.3%, and the annual rate was 2%. [18] 国内要闻 - **Exchange Rate**: On July 1, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was reported at 7.1534, down 52 points. [20] - **Monetary Policy**: The Chinese central bank conducted 131 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on July 1, resulting in a net withdrawal of 275.5 billion yuan. [20] - **Economic Data**: The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 points from May. [20] Capital Flows - **Futures Market**: On July 1, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 6.836 billion yuan, including 6.238 billion yuan in the commodity futures market and 598 million yuan in the stock index futures market. [23] - **Major Commodities**: The capital flows of various futures products are detailed, with positive inflows in products like CSI 1000 stock index futures, gold, and copper, and negative outflows in products such as CSI 300 stock index futures, crude oil, and iron ore. [22] Arbitrage Tracking - **Arbitrage Opportunities**: Potential arbitrage opportunities in oilseeds and related products are presented, including price differences and ratios between different contracts such as P 2509 - 2601, RM 2509 - 2601, etc. [25]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-02 绝对价格下滑现货市场并未明显好转 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-18.75 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日下跌210元/吨至22280元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨25元/吨至105元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日下跌240元/吨至22250 元/吨。SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌5元/吨至75元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日下跌200元/ 吨至22210元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨35元/吨至35元/吨。 期货方面：2025-07-01沪锌主力合约开于22380元/吨，收于22255元/吨，较前一交易日下跌180元/吨，全天交易日 成交178683手，较前一交易日增加17759手，全天交易日持仓134433手，较前一交易日减少5753手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到22420元/吨，最低点达到22105元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-06-30，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为8.06万吨，较上周同期增加0.28万吨。截止2025-06-30，LME 锌库存为117475吨，较上一交易日减少1 ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-07-02 需求淡季，下游刚需采购 市场分析 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7249元/吨（-12），PP主力合约收盘价为7044元/吨（-26），LL华北现货为7190 元/吨（-50），LL华东现货为7300元/吨（-50），PP华东现货为7120元/吨（-40），LL华北基差为-59元/吨（-38），LL 华东基差为51元/吨（-38）， PP华东基差为76元/吨（-14）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为76.4%（-2.3%），PP开工率为79.3%（-0.3%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为378.7元/吨（+19.9），PP油制生产利润为-51.3元/吨（+19.9），PDH制PP生产利 润为274.9元/吨（+6.4）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-48.2元/吨（+10.1），PP进口利润为-496.8元/吨（-182.2），PP出口利润为23.2美元/吨 （+1.2）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为12.4%（+0.2%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.0%（-1.2%），PP下游塑编开工率 为43.2%（-0.4%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.4 ...

化工日报 | 2025-07-02 下游轮胎企业原料采购低迷 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约14095元/吨，较前一日变动+110元/吨。NR主力合约12310元/吨，较前一日变动+120 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14000元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混13950元/吨， 较前一日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1730美元/吨，较前一日变动+10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号 标胶1670美元/吨，较前一日变动+10美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11700元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/ 吨。浙江传化BR9000市场价11350元/吨，较前一日变动-50元/吨。 市场资讯 据隆众了解，进入下旬，半钢胎企业整体出货表现未有改善，国内市场进货压力较大，出口市场尚存支撑，多企 业延续控产，缓解库存增加压力。全钢胎企业表现稍显平稳，听闻，个别工厂次月有回收之前促销政策计划，短 期内或对市场拿货形成一定刺激，短期内关注其他企业价格政策动向。 据国家统计局最新公布的数据显示，2025年5月中国橡胶轮胎外胎产量为10199.3万条，同比下降1.2%。 ...

Group 1: Market Analysis - On July 1, 2025, the main contract 2509 of lithium carbonate opened at 62,140 yuan/ton and closed at 62,780 yuan/ton, with the closing price up 1.15% from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 398,387 lots, and the open interest was 326,676 lots, a decrease of 4,148 lots from the previous day. The total open interest of all contracts was 592,395 lots, a decrease of 4,592 lots from the previous day. The total trading volume of contracts decreased by 9,815 lots from the previous day, and the overall speculation degree was 0.82. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 22,940 lots, an increase of 312 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, on July 1, 2025, the quotation of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,500 - 62,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the quotation of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 59,200 - 60,200 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The spot inventory was 136,800 tons, including 59,000 tons in smelters, 40,600 tons in downstream, and 37,200 tons in other inventories. The spot transaction price center of lithium carbonate remained stable for the time being. The lithium carbonate market continued the basic pattern of oversupply, with prominent supply - demand contradictions. The market had sufficient available goods, and the inventory pressure was not effectively alleviated. Downstream cathode plants had an expected increase in production in July, but currently mainly made rigid purchases, with no obvious increase in inventory - building willingness, and the market had strong wait - and - see sentiment and few transactions [2]. - In June, the domestic lithium carbonate market significantly increased production. The monthly total output increased by 8% month - on - month and 18% year - on - year, reaching 78,090 tons [2]. Group 2: Strategy - Overall, the fundamentals were weak, and the oversupply pattern remained unchanged. The production of material factories in July had a certain increase, providing short - term support for consumption. The warehouse receipts would be cancelled in July, and recent news of production cuts on the supply side led to enlarged fluctuations in the disk. In the medium term, the oversupply pattern remained unchanged, and the willingness to sell for hedging after a rebound was strong [3]. - For trading strategies, it was recommended to sell for hedging at high prices in the unilateral market, and there were no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, and spot - futures trading [5]. Group 3: Figures - There were figures including the price of domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%), the price of domestic industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%), the weekly total output of lithium carbonate, the weekly statistical inventory of lithium carbonate, the statistical inventory of lithium ore, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts [6].

早盘收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌互现。多晶硅涨超5%，玻璃涨超4%，工业硅涨超3%，烧碱、生猪、 碳酸锂、氧化铝涨超2%，纯碱涨近2%。跌幅方面，玉米、豆粕跌近1%。 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015369 姓名：丛燕飞 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015666 【短评-螺纹钢】7月1日，国内钢材市场价格小幅下跌，唐 山迁安普方坯出厂含税跌20报2900元/吨。1家钢厂下调建筑钢 材出厂价格20元/吨。全国主要城市螺纹钢均价3205元/吨，较 上个交易日跌6元/吨。评：高温多雨天气，加之房地产市场仍 在调整阶段，淡季钢材需求疲弱格局延续。随着钢厂去库存压 力加大，对原燃料采购谨慎。昨日"双焦"期货市场领跌黑色 期货，市场情绪再度走弱。短期来看，钢价呈现冲高回落态 势，尚难摆脱震荡格局。 【短评-原油】伊朗外长：伊美恢复谈判仍需时间；沙特阿 拉伯6月份的出口数字表明，由于原油产量增加，沙特阿美石油 公司增加原油出口量，每日原油出口量达到633万桶，这是自 2024年3月以来最高的月度出口量；美国石油学会数据显示，截 止2025年6月27日当周，美国商业原油库存增加68万桶。评：当 前原油 ...