黑色金属周报-钢材 价格调整 基差走强 研究所 白净 从业资格号：F03097282； 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018999 2025.08.04 目录 第一部分 结论及平衡表 截至7月31日，五大品种钢材整体产量增0.45万吨，五大品种库存厂库环比增0.1吨，社库增 15.29吨。表观需852.03万吨，环比降16.1万吨。截至8月1日，长流程现货端，华东螺纹长流程现 金含税成本3077元，点对点利润253元左右，热卷长流程现金含税利润233元左右。电炉端，华东 （富宝口径）平电电炉成本在3360元左右，谷电成本在3232左右，华东螺纹平电利润-110元左右， 谷电利润18元。 废钢端，截止7月31日，张家港废钢价格2150元/吨，环比上涨10元/吨。数据显示，89家独立 电弧炉企业产能利用率30.6%，环比回升1.2个百分点；255家样本钢厂日耗54.8万吨，环比增2.98 万吨；其中，132家长流程钢厂日耗27.4万吨/天，环比回升1.08万吨；短流程日耗16.7吨，环比 增1.47万吨。供应方面，255家样本钢厂日均到货54.1万吨，环比增7.56万吨，增幅16.3%。库存 方面，255家钢企废钢库存 ...

Quantitative Factors and Models Summary Quantitative Factors and Construction - **Factor Name**: BETA **Construction Idea**: Measures the sensitivity of a stock's returns to market returns, capturing systematic risk exposure [13][28] **Construction Process**: The BETA factor is calculated as the slope coefficient in a regression of a stock's returns against the market index returns over a specified period [13][28] **Evaluation**: This factor performed well during the week, indicating a positive contribution to portfolio returns [13][28] - **Factor Name**: Residual Volatility **Construction Idea**: Captures the idiosyncratic risk of a stock, independent of market movements [13][28] **Construction Process**: Residual volatility is derived from the standard deviation of the residuals in a regression of stock returns against market returns [13][28] **Evaluation**: This factor showed moderate positive performance during the week [13][28] - **Factor Name**: Momentum **Construction Idea**: Reflects the tendency of stocks with strong past performance to continue performing well in the short term [13][28] **Construction Process**: Momentum is calculated as the cumulative return of a stock over a specific look-back period, excluding the most recent month [13][28] **Evaluation**: This factor exhibited slight positive performance during the week [13][28] - **Factor Name**: Value **Construction Idea**: Measures the attractiveness of a stock based on its valuation metrics, such as price-to-earnings or price-to-book ratios [13][28] **Construction Process**: Value is computed using a weighted combination of valuation ratios, normalized across the universe of stocks [13][28] **Evaluation**: This factor underperformed during the week, indicating a negative contribution to portfolio returns [13][28] - **Factor Name**: Leverage **Construction Idea**: Represents the financial risk of a company based on its debt levels relative to equity [13][28] **Construction Process**: Leverage is calculated as the ratio of total debt to total equity for each stock [13][28] **Evaluation**: This factor showed slight negative performance during the week [13][28] - **Factor Name**: Size **Construction Idea**: Captures the performance difference between small-cap and large-cap stocks [13][28] **Construction Process**: Size is measured as the natural logarithm of a company's market capitalization [13][28] **Evaluation**: This factor significantly underperformed during the week, reflecting a preference for larger-cap stocks [13][28] Factor Backtesting Results - **BETA Factor**: Weekly return +0.27%, 1-year Sharpe ratio 2.74, 1-year maximum drawdown 5.40% [13][29] - **Residual Volatility Factor**: Weekly return +0.12%, 1-year Sharpe ratio -3.22, 1-year maximum drawdown 11.67% [13][29] - **Momentum Factor**: Weekly return +0.05%, 1-year Sharpe ratio 2.96, 1-year maximum drawdown 2.47% [13][29] - **Value Factor**: Weekly return -0.25%, 1-year Sharpe ratio -0.18, 1-year maximum drawdown 3.31% [13][29] - **Leverage Factor**: Weekly return -0.28%, 1-year Sharpe ratio 2.96, 1-year maximum drawdown 1.55% [13][29] - **Size Factor**: Weekly return -0.47%, 1-year Sharpe ratio -5.82, 1-year maximum drawdown 17.33% [13][29]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market presents a complex situation with various factors influencing prices. Supply is considered neutral, with potential for increased Chinese production in 2025/26 despite USDA's prediction of a double - decline. Demand is downward, as cotton prices are weaker than棉纱, and spinning mills' stocking willingness remains low. Inventory is in a neutral state, with the de - stocking speed accelerating. The market is expected to be in a state of unilateral oscillation with a weakening trend, and opportunities for 11 - 1 reverse spreads can be considered [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Core Points and Strategies - **Supply**: The USDA's July report shows that the global cotton production in 2025/26 is expected to be 25.65 million tons. The US cotton planting area in 2025 will decrease by 12% year - on - year. China's 2025/26 cotton production is revised up by 218,000 tons to 6.75 million tons, while import demand is reduced by 152,000 tons to 1.263 million tons. There is still room for an increase in China's cotton production due to good weather and strong expansion intentions in Xinjiang [6]. - **Demand**: Cotton prices are relatively weaker than 棉纱 this week, and the spot transaction price is falling. Spinning mills' stocking willingness remains low in the off - season, while weaving mills' weekly stocking willingness has slightly increased. Spinning profits have slightly expanded, and the loss in inland areas has decreased [6]. - **Inventory**: As of mid - July, the social cotton inventory is 3.4245 million tons, a decrease of 308,300 tons from the end of June, with a month - on - month decline of 8.26%. The de - stocking speed is the fastest of the year. The industrial inventory of spinning mills continues to decline, and inland spinning mills are not enthusiastic about stocking raw materials [6]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 1, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton are 8,807, with 348 valid forecasts, and the total amount of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts is 366,200 tons, down from 384,600 tons on July 25 [6]. - **Basis**: The basis quotation for sales in Xinjiang remains firm, and the spot transaction price falls with the futures price. The basis transaction price of machine - picked cotton in the Aksu area of southern Xinjiang is 1,200 - 1,350 yuan/ton for the 09 contract [6]. - **Cost**: The average cost of ginning mills this year is 14,700 - 14,800 yuan. In the new year, due to the withdrawal of some ginning mills in northern Xinjiang and poor overall demand prospects, the opening price is not expected to be high [6]. - **Macro**: The previous macro - positive expectations in China have weakened. The Politburo meeting met market expectations, and there is no additional incremental stimulus. The official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, a significant month - on - month decline. Overseas, the June non - farm payrolls data was significantly revised down. The commodity attribute is bearish in the next few months, while the macro - attribute is gradually turning bullish, and the direction of interest rate cuts is certain [6]. - **Strategy**: The market is expected to be in a state of unilateral oscillation with a weakening trend. It is advisable to lay out 11 - 1 reverse spreads at high levels [6]. 02. Weekly Data Charts - **Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2020/21 to 2025/26, the global cotton supply and demand situation shows changes in various indicators such as inventory, production, consumption, etc. For example, the global cotton production in 2025/26 is expected to be 25.47 million tons, and the consumption is expected to be 25.64 million tons [14]. - **Global Main Producing Countries' Production Changes**: The production of main cotton - producing countries such as China, the US, and India shows different trends from 2020/21 to 2025/26. China's cotton production in 2025/26 is expected to be 6.532 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.24% [15]. - **Global Main Producing Countries' Demand Changes**: The demand of main cotton - consuming countries also shows different trends. For example, China's cotton consumption in 2025/26 is expected to be 7.947 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.35% [16]. - **US Cotton Weather**: The USDA's planting intention report shows that the US cotton planting area in 2025 is expected to be 10.12 million acres, higher than market expectations, which brings pressure to the market [18]. - **US Inventory Cycle**: The US overall inventory cycle is transitioning from passive de - stocking to active restocking, and the clothing inventory of wholesalers and retailers is turning from de - stocking to moderate active restocking. However, due to the relaxation of tariffs and previous import - rushing behaviors, the retailer inventory has reached a high point, weakening the continuous restocking behavior [29]. - **Domestic New - Year Planting**: Domestic new - year cotton planting area is expanding, maintaining a pattern of loose supply. According to different surveys from February to June, the national planting area shows an increasing trend [34]. - **Cotton Imports**: Cotton and 棉纱 imports are relatively low, and spinning mills are looking forward to import quotas [35]. - **Cotton Industry Chain Inventory**: The inventory situation of the cotton industry chain includes the inventory of spinning mills and weaving mills, and the de - stocking speed of cotton commercial inventory is relatively fast [57]. - **Spinning Profits**: Spinning profits are still poor [45]. - **Industry Chain Downstream Startup Rates**: The startup rates of the downstream of the industry chain, including spinning mills and weaving mills, are also presented in the report [48][51]. - **Cotton and Substitute Price Spreads**: The price spreads between cotton and its substitutes are also analyzed [54].

Core Insights - The report provides an overview of the basis and monthly spread for various stock index futures contracts as of August 1st, indicating the current market conditions for these financial instruments [1]. Group 1: Basis - The basis for the CSI 300 IF2508 contract is at a discount of 11.73 points [1] - The basis for the SSE 50 IH2508 contract is at a discount of 0.13 points [1] - The basis for the CSI 500 IC2508 contract is at a discount of 47.4 points [1] - The basis for the CSI 1000 IM2508 contract is at a discount of 53.67 points [1] Group 2: Monthly Spread - The price spread between the CSI 300 IF2508 and IF2509 contracts is 12.6 points [1] - The price spread between the SSE 50 IH2508 and IH2509 contracts is -0.4 points [1] - The price spread between the CSI 500 IC2508 and IC2509 contracts is 61.8 points [1] - The price spread between the CSI 1000 IM2508 and IM2509 contracts is 74.4 points [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The domestic LPG market is expected to continue its narrow - range oscillating trend. Although chemical demand is strong, the weak combustion demand restricts upward movement. International LPG prices are weak, and factors such as increased warehouse receipts and regional differences also affect the market [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data and Changes - From July 25 to July 31, 2025, the price of South China LPG decreased from 4500 to 4440 (-40), East China LPG remained at 4413, Shandong LPG decreased from 4630 to 4540 (-40), propane CFR South China increased from 549 to 550 (+5), propane CIF Japan increased from 514 to 555 (+28), MB propane spot decreased from 71 to 73 (-1), CP forecast contract price increased from 522 to 530 (+7), Shandong ether - after carbon four decreased from 4900 to 4910 (-20), Shandong alkylated oil decreased from 7980 to 7970 (-30), paper import profit decreased from -33 to -120 (-82), and the main basis increased from 453 to 437 (+9) [1] 2. Market Conditions on Thursday - The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4413. FEI oscillated, CP slightly declined, and the official CP prices for August were announced, with propane/butane at 520/490 respectively. PP prices dropped, and the production profits of FEI and CP for PP slightly weakened, with CP having a lower production cost than FEI. The PG futures weakened, the monthly spread slightly weakened, and the 09 - 10 spread was -438 (-13). The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window closed [1] 3. PG Market Conditions - The PG futures oscillated. International LPG prices were weak, and the significant increase in warehouse receipts suppressed the futures. Domestic chemical demand increased, but weak combustion demand restricted upward movement. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4413 yuan/ton. The basis weakened to 370 (-63). The inter - month reverse spread continued to strengthen. The warehouse receipt registration volume was 9804 lots (+1000), with 1000 lots added by Qingdao Yunda. The overseas prices continued to weaken, and the oil - gas ratio weakened. In terms of regional spreads, PG - CP reached 43 (+18), FEI - MB reached 155 (-6), FEI - CP reached 4.5 (+4.5); the US - Asia arbitrage window closed [1] 4. Weekly View - The FEI propane discount continued to decline, and the CP landed discount oscillated. The change in FEI - MOPJ was small, with the latest at -47.5 (-3.75). PDH profits improved, and MTBE export profits declined. The arrival volume decreased significantly, with ships in South China delayed due to typhoons, and port inventories decreased. Factory inventories slightly increased. The commodity volume decreased by 0.53%. Chemical demand was strong; the PDH operating rate increased significantly to 73.13% (+2.01 pct) as Zhenhua Petrochemical and Hebei Haiwei gradually increased their loads. Next week, Liaoning Jinfa plans to resume operation; the alkylation operating rate increased, and Henan Chengxin's alkylation unit has a restart plan; the MTBE operating load increased, with manufacturers focusing on exports, and the overall operation was stable. Weak combustion demand restricted upward movement [1]

Report Overview - Report Title: Fuel Oil Morning Report - Report Date: August 1, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread fluctuated, the near - month spread declined and returned to the historical low for the same period. EW continued to weaken and rebounded on Friday. The 380 9 - 10 month spread weakened to around $2, the 380 basis continued to weaken to -$7.25/ton, and the FU09 domestic - foreign spread rebounded and then fluctuated. The Singapore 0.5 crack spread declined fluctuantly, the 9 - 10 month spread weakened to around $2.75, the LU domestic - foreign spread weakened, and the 09 domestic - foreign spread dropped to $0.7. [4][5] - This week, Singapore's on - land inventory increased slightly, floating storage decreased, and the near - month spread was under pressure. Saudi Arabia's shipments and imports increased month - on - month, while the UAE's shipments decreased significantly month - on - month. Egypt's net imports decreased slightly month - on - month but remained at a seasonal high. High - sulfur supply and demand are still in the peak season. After the 380 crack spread declined, it fluctuated. Currently, the EW arbitrage window is theoretically open, and the domestic - foreign spread oscillated after repair. [5] - This week, the hi - 5 spread fluctuated after a slight decline. The domestic LU domestic - foreign spread decline was realized, and the FU - LU domestic - foreign valuation was partially realized. Attention should be paid to whether there is support for the 380 near - month contract. [5] Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From July 25 to July 31, 2025, for Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1, the price changed from $418.40 to $430.91, with a change of -$3.62; for Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1, the price changed from $464.12 to $485.27, with a change of -$2.48; for Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1, the price changed from -$2.01 to -$3.80, with a change of -$0.20; etc. [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Data - From July 25 to July 31, 2025, for Singapore 380cst M1, the price changed from $410.89 to $416.80, with a change of -$1.87; for Singapore 180cst M1, the price changed from $423.97 to $430.45, with a change of -$1.63; for Singapore VLSFO M1, the price changed from $495.32 to $509.36, with a change of -$1.75; etc. [2][10] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From July 25 to July 31, 2025, for FOB 380cst, the price changed from $403.34 to $411.50, with a change of -$0.77; for FOB VLSFO, the price changed from $499.89 to $511.91, with a change of -$2.94; the 380 basis changed from -$6.25 to -$6.25, with a change of $0.05; etc. [3] Domestic FU Data - From July 25 to July 31, 2025, for FU 01, the price changed from 2921 to 2953, with a change of -12; for FU 05, the price changed from 2872 to 2909, with a change of -3; for FU 09, the price changed from 2915 to 2933, with a change of -23; etc. [3] Domestic LU Data - From July 25 to July 31, 2025, for LU 01, the price changed from 3549 to 3628, with a change of -24; for LU 05, the price changed from 3489 to 3593, with a change of -21; for LU 09, the price changed from 3611 to 3655, with a change of -37; etc. [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, methanol prices will fluctuate within a range. In the long - term, the methanol spot market may shift from a strong to a weak - oscillating trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - Methanol prices in many domestic regions increased slightly. For example, the price in Shandong rose from 2290.00 to 2295.00, while the price in Taicang dropped from 2400.00 to 2385.00. Other regions like Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [1]. - Among关联品 (related products), the price of methane chloride increased from 2060.00 to 2110.00, and MTBE increased from 5000.00 to 5030.00 [1]. Supply - Domestic methanol production increased from 276685.00 to 277085.00, and the domestic operating rate rose from 85.66 to 85.78. International operating rate remained at 69.71 [1]. Inventory - Both enterprise inventory and port inventory remained unchanged at 339830.00 and 725800.00 respectively [1]. Demand - The order backlog remained at 244832.00. The operating rates of MTO, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, acetic acid, chloride, MTBE, etc. remained mostly unchanged [1]. - The formaldehyde market showed mixed trends. With a slight adjustment in raw material methanol, cost - side support strengthened. However, formaldehyde producers faced greater shipping pressure as the downstream entered the off - season [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The domestic LPG market is expected to continue its narrow - range oscillation. International LPG prices are weak, and an increase in warehouse receipts suppresses the market. Although domestic chemical demand is rising, weak combustion demand restricts price increases [1]. 3. Key Points by Relevant Information Price Changes - **Daily Changes (July 30)**: There was no change in South China and East China LPG prices, Shandong LPG decreased by 20 yuan, propane CFR South China dropped by 5 dollars, propane CIF Japan rose by 28 dollars, MB propane spot increased by 2 dollars, CP forecast contract price decreased by 2 dollars, Shandong ether - after carbon four rose by 100 yuan, Shandong alkylated oil increased by 50 yuan, paper import profit rose by 28 dollars, and the main basis weakened by 24 yuan [1]. - **PG Market**: The PG market oscillated. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4413 yuan/ton. The basis weakened to 370 (-63). The inter - month reverse spread continued to strengthen. Warehouse receipt registrations reached 9804 lots (+1000), with 1000 lots added by Qingdao Yunda [1]. - **Regional Spreads**: PG - CP reached 43 (+18), FEI - MB was 155 (-6), FEI - CP was 4.5 (+4.5), and FEI - MOPJ changed little at -47.5 (-3.75). The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed, and the FEI propane discount continued to decline [1]. Market Conditions - **Supply and Demand**: The arrival volume decreased significantly. In South China, typhoons delayed vessel arrivals, leading to a decline in port inventories and a slight increase in factory inventories. The commodity volume decreased by 0.53%. Chemical demand was strong, with PDH operating rates rising significantly to 73.13% (+2.01 pct), and MTBE and alkylation operating rates also increasing [1]. - **Production Profits**: PDH profits improved, while MTBE export profits declined. FEI and CP - based PP production profits oscillated, with CP having a lower production cost than FEI [1]. Weekly Outlook - The domestic LPG market is expected to continue narrow - range oscillations. Chemical demand is strong, but weak combustion demand will continue to suppress price increases [1].

Group 1 - The basis for the CSI 300 IF2508 contract is at a discount of 5.19, while the SSE 50 IH2508 contract is at a premium of 0.61. The CSI 500 IC2508 contract is at a discount of 39.74, and the CSI 1000 IM2508 contract is at a discount of 48.19 [1] - The month difference for the CSI 300 IF2508-2509 is 12.2, while the SSE 50 IH2508-2509 shows a difference of -0.4. The CSI 500 IC2508-2509 has a difference of 61.8, and the CSI 1000 IM2508-2509 has a difference of 75.0 [1]

Report Summary Core View The report presents the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, historical quantiles, and spot references of various commodities across multiple sectors including ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, precious metals, agricultural products, energy and chemical products, and financial futures [1]. Summary by Commodity Sectors Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF509)**: Spot price is 6028, futures price is 6008, basis is 20, basis rate is 0.33%, and historical quantile is 35.20% [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM509)**: Spot price is 6070, futures price is 6116, basis is - 46, basis rate is - 0.75%, and historical quantile is 19.10% [1]. - **Rebar (RB2510)**: Spot price is 3440, futures price is 3315, basis is 125, basis rate is 3.77%, and historical quantile is 57.30% [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2510)**: Spot price is 3500, futures price is 3483, basis is 17, basis rate is 0.49%, and historical quantile is 24.30% [1]. - **Iron Ore (I2509)**: Spot price is 823, futures price is 789, basis is 34, basis rate is 4.36%, and historical quantile is 30.50% [1]. - **Coke (J2509)**: Spot price is 1570, futures price is 1677, basis is - 106, basis rate is - 6.34%, and historical quantile is 10.56% [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2509)**: Spot price is 1155, futures price is 1117, basis is 38, basis rate is 3.40%, and historical quantile is 36.60% [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2509)**: Spot price is 79285, futures price is 78930, basis is 355, basis rate is 0.45%, and historical quantile is 77.50% [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2509)**: Spot price is 20670, futures price is 20625, basis is 45, basis rate is 0.22%, and historical quantile is 61.66% [1]. - **Alumina (AO2509)**: Spot price is 3248, futures price is 3326, basis is - 78, basis rate is - 2.33%, and historical quantile is 20.26% [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2509)**: Spot price is 22610, futures price is 22670, basis is - 60, basis rate is - 0.26%, and historical quantile is 37.50% [1]. - **Tin (SN2509)**: Spot price is 268100, futures price is 267870, basis is 230, basis rate is 0.09%, and historical quantile is 54.37% [1]. - **Nickel (NISE09)**: Spot price is 122350, futures price is 121720, basis is 630, basis rate is 0.52%, and historical quantile is 81.04% [1]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2509)**: Spot price is 13120, futures price is 12920, basis is 200, basis rate is 1.55%, and historical quantile is 44.42% [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2509)**: Spot price is 72950, futures price is 70600, basis is 2350, basis rate is 3.33%, and historical quantile is 79.29% [1]. - **Industrial Silicon (SI2509)**: Spot price is 10000, futures price is 9285, basis is 715, basis rate is 7.70%, and historical quantile is 49.37% [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2510)**: Spot price is 769.5, futures price is 773.8, basis is - 4.3, basis rate is - 0.56%, and historical quantile is 8.90% [1]. - **Silver (AG2510)**: Spot price is 9166.0, futures price is 9192.0, basis is - 26.0, basis rate is - 0.28%, and historical quantile is 32.90% [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2509)**: Spot price is 2880, futures price is 3010.0, basis is - 130.0, basis rate is - 4.32%, and historical quantile is 15.30% [1]. - **Soybean Oil (Y2509)**: Spot price is 8330, futures price is 8240.0, basis is 90.0, basis rate is 1.09%, and historical quantile is 11.40% [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2509)**: Spot price is 9010, futures price is 8982.0, basis is 28.0, basis rate is 0.31%, and historical quantile is 20.60% [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM509)**: Spot price is 2590, futures price is 2735.0, basis is - 145.0, basis rate is - 5.30%, and historical quantile is 7.60% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (OI509)**: Spot price is 9696, futures price is 9621.0, basis is 69.0, basis rate is 0.72%, and historical quantile is 32.00% [1]. - **Corn (C2509)**: Spot price is 2350, futures price is 2312.0, basis is 38.0, basis rate is 1.64%, and historical quantile is 65.70% [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2509)**: Spot price is 2800, futures price is 2683.0, basis is 117.0, basis rate is 4.36%, and historical quantile is 58.50% [1]. - **Live Pigs (LH2509)**: Spot price is 13930, futures price is 14075.0, basis is - 145.0, basis rate is - 1.03%, and historical quantile is 40.20% [1]. - **Eggs (JD2509)**: Spot price is 3040, futures price is 3570.0, basis is - 530.0, basis rate is 14.85%, and historical quantile is 6.30% [1]. - **Cotton (CF509)**: Spot price is 15343, futures price is 13755.0, basis is 1588.0, basis rate is 11.54%, and historical quantile is 94.90% [1]. - **Sugar (SR509)**: Spot price is 6120, futures price is 5804.0, basis is 316.0, basis rate is 5.44%, and historical quantile is 59.00% [1]. - **Apples (AP510)**: Spot price is 8600, futures price is 7915.0, basis is 685.0, basis rate is 8.65%, and historical quantile is 53.40% [1]. - **Jujubes (CJ601)**: Spot price is 8300, futures price is 10805.0, basis is - 2505.0, basis rate is - 23.18%, and historical quantile is 5.20% [1]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Para - Xylene (PX509)**: Spot price is 7122.7, futures price is 6984.0, basis is 138.7, basis rate is 1.99%, and historical quantile is 64.00% [1]. - **PTA (TA509)**: Spot price is 4850.0, futures price is 4856.0, basis is - 6.0, basis rate is - 0.12%, and historical quantile is 49.20% [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2509)**: Spot price is 4515.0, futures price is 4450.0, basis is 65.0, basis rate is 1.46%, and historical quantile is 83.40% [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF509)**: Spot price is 6615.0, futures price is 6500.0, basis is 115.0, basis rate is 1.77%, and historical quantile is 72.10% [1]. - **Styrene (EB2509)**: Spot price is 7415.0, futures price is 7387.0, basis is 28.0, basis rate is 0.38%, and historical quantile is 32.80% [1]. - **Methanol (MA509)**: Spot price is 2405.0, futures price is 2419.0, basis is - 14.0, basis rate is - 0.58%, and historical quantile is 25.20% [1]. - **Urea (UR509)**: Spot price is 1770.0, futures price is 1742.0, basis is 28.0, basis rate is 1.61%, and historical quantile is 19.30% [1]. - **LLDPE (L2509)**: Spot price is 7350.0, futures price is 7387.0, basis is - 37.0, basis rate is - 0.50%, and historical quantile is 11.10% [1]. - **PP (PP2509)**: Spot price is 7160.0, futures price is 7145.0, basis is 15.0, basis rate is 0.21%, and historical quantile is 27.20% [1]. - **PVC (V2509)**: Spot price is 5060.0, futures price is 5159.0, basis is - 99.0, basis rate is - 1.92%, and historical quantile is 54.60% [1]. - **Caustic Soda (SH509)**: Spot price is 2593.8, futures price is 2613.0, basis is - 19.3, basis rate is - 0.74%, and historical quantile is 46.40% [1]. - **LPG (PG2509)**: Spot price is 4448.0, futures price is 4052.0, basis is 396.0, basis rate is 9.77%, and historical quantile is 56.70% [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2509)**: Spot price is 3785.0, futures price is 3650.0, basis is 135.0, basis rate is 3.70%, and historical quantile is 76.00% [1]. - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2509)**: Spot price is 12100.0, futures price is 11775.0, basis is 325.0, basis rate is 2.76%, and historical quantile is 61.90% [1]. - **Glass (FG509)**: Spot price is 1176.0, futures price is 1191.0, basis is - 15.0, basis rate is - 1.28%, and historical quantile is 60.71% [1]. - **Soda Ash (SA509)**: Spot price is 1301.0, futures price is 1311.0, basis is - 10.0, basis rate is - 0.77%, and historical quantile is 26.89% [1]. - **Natural Rubber (RU2509)**: Spot price is 15000.0, futures price is 14945.0, basis is 55.0, basis rate is 0.37%, and historical quantile is 97.91% [1]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: - **IF2509.CFE**: Spot price is 4151.2, futures price is 4136.4, basis is - 14.8, basis rate is - 0.36%, and historical quantile is 28.70% [1]. - **IH2509.CFE**: Spot price is 2819.4, futures price is 2820.0, basis is 0.6, basis rate is 0.02%, and historical quantile is 61.40% [1]. - **IC2509.CFE**: Spot price is 6314.7, futures price is 6215.4, basis is - 99.3, basis rate is - 1.60%, and historical quantile is 2.70% [1]. - **IM2509.CFE**: Spot price is 6718.5, futures price is 6604.2, basis is - 114.3, basis rate is - 1.73%, and historical quantile is 11.00% [1]. - **Bond Futures**: - **2 - year Bond (TS2509)**: Spot price is 100.26, futures price is 102.34, basis is 0.01, basis rate is 0.01%, and historical quantile is 27.60% [1]. - **5 - year Bond (TF2509)**: Spot price is 100.62, futures price is 105.64, basis is 0.03, basis rate is 0.03%, and historical quantile is 31.80% [1]. - **10 - year Bond (T2509)**: Spot price is 106.91, futures price is 108.31, basis is 0.16, basis rate is 0.15%, and historical quantile is 35.50% [1]. - **30 - year Bond (TL2509)**: Spot price is 134.07, futures price is 118.44, basis is 0.48, basis rate is 0.41%, and historical quantile is 72.10% [1].