Group 1: Currency Trends - In August, the USD index fell from above 100 to 97.8, a cumulative decline of 2.2% due to weaker employment data and increased expectations for Fed rate cuts[3] - The RMB exchange rate strengthened for the fourth consecutive month, with the midpoint rate appreciating by an average of 8 basis points from August 1 to 20, and accelerating to an average of 51 basis points in late August[4] - By the end of August, the RMB midpoint, onshore, and offshore exchange rates reached 7.1030, 7.1330, and 7.1221 respectively, appreciating by 0.7%, 0.8%, and 1.2% compared to the end of the previous month[4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - In August, banks reported a surplus in foreign exchange transactions, narrowing to $16.8 billion, the lowest in four months, indicating a decrease in the willingness to settle foreign exchange[22] - The net inflow of cross-border funds was reflected in a shift from a deficit of $7.7 billion to a surplus of $3.2 billion in bank foreign exchange payments[14] - Foreign investment in Chinese stocks reached a net inflow of $10.8 billion, the highest since February, while overall foreign investment in emerging markets was approximately $45 billion[17] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The nominal effective exchange rate index and the real effective exchange rate index of the RMB increased by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively, indicating a slight reduction in the impact of RMB fluctuations on export competitiveness[5] - Direct investment foreign exchange payments showed a deficit increase of $4.5 billion to $7.5 billion, with foreign income dropping to $50.2 billion, the lowest in five years[18] - The trade surplus in goods payments decreased by $16.5 billion to $72.9 billion, reflecting slower collection rates from export enterprises[18]

Group 1 - The US dollar index decreased by 0.08% to 97.23, indicating a slight weakening of the dollar against other currencies [1] - The euro appreciated by 0.10% against the dollar, reaching 1.1814, reflecting a strengthening of the eurozone currency [1] - The British pound rose by 0.11% to 1.3528 against the dollar, showing positive movement for the UK currency [1] Group 2 - The Australian dollar experienced a minor decline of 0.01%, trading at 0.6599 against the US dollar [1] - The dollar fell by 0.05% against the Japanese yen, with a rate of 147.6625 [1] - The Canadian dollar increased by 0.13% against the US dollar, reaching 1.3836, indicating a stronger performance for the Canadian currency [1] - The Swiss franc depreciated by 0.14% against the dollar, trading at 0.7914 [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年9月23日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 6、预期：今日关注欧英美9月PMI数据、美联储主席和委员讲话、美国二季度经常帐。 美联储降息预期高涨，美元指数回落，金价继续走高，再创新高。沪金溢价继续收 敛至-12元/克，人民币走强预期强劲。降息预期高涨再度推高金价，临近期权合约 到期，或有大幅波动可能。 2、基差：黄金期货846.5，现货840.5，基差-6，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：黄金期货仓单57429千克，不变；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，主力多减；偏多 白银 1、基本面：降息预期高 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index decreased by 0.36% to 97.31, indicating a weakening of the dollar against other currencies [1] - The euro appreciated by 0.48% against the dollar, reaching 1.1802, reflecting a strengthening of the eurozone currency [1] - The British pound rose by 0.33% to 1.3513 against the dollar, suggesting positive sentiment towards the UK currency [1] Group 2 - The Australian dollar increased by 0.09% to 0.6600 against the US dollar, indicating slight gains for the Australian currency [1] - The Japanese yen saw a decline of 0.16% against the dollar, with the exchange rate at 147.7310, reflecting a weaker yen [1] - The Canadian dollar appreciated by 0.30% to 1.3818 against the US dollar, showing strength in the Canadian currency [1] - The Swiss franc decreased by 0.38% against the dollar, with a rate of 0.7924, indicating a weaker franc [1]

周一（9月22日）纽约尾盘，ICE美元指数跌0.32%，报97.323点，日内交投区间为97.823-97.323点，北 京时间12:30刷新日高之后，持续震荡下挫；日线图上，美元结束9月17日（美联储降息日）跌至96.218 点以来（含当天）连续三个交易日反弹的趋势。彭博美元指数跌0.19%，报1196.19点，日内交投区间为 1200.20-1196.08点。 ...

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has rebounded, and the degree of the China-US interest rate "inversion" has deepened, with inflation expectations also rising [1][14] - Offshore US dollar liquidity has generally loosened, while the domestic interbank funding situation remains balanced [1][19] Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has increased, with most industry trading activities remaining above the 80th percentile [2][25] - Major indices' volatility has also risen, with the communication sector's volatility exceeding the 80th historical percentile [2][31] - Market liquidity indicators have declined, with all sectors' liquidity indicators below the 40th historical percentile [2][36] Institutional Research - The electronic, pharmaceutical, communication, non-ferrous metals, and automotive sectors have seen high research activity, while sectors like steel, electricity, utilities, machinery, light industry, building materials, and real estate have shown a rising trend in research activity [3][43] Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have continued to lower the net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026, with the proportion of stocks with upward revisions increasing [4][50] - The net profit forecasts for sectors such as non-bank financials, chemicals, coal, and retail have been raised for 2025/2026 [4][21] - The net profit forecast for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index for 2025/2026 has been adjusted upward [4][23] Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has increased, but there continues to be a net sell-off overall [5][31] - Based on the top 10 active stocks, the buy-sell ratio in sectors like electronics, electric new energy, and communication has risen, while it has decreased in non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous metals [5][32] Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing has reached a high point not seen since September 2024, with a net purchase of 466.70 billion yuan last week [6][35] - The main net purchases in margin financing were in the electronic, non-bank financial, and machinery sectors, while net sales were seen in military, non-ferrous metals, and coal sectors [6][39] Active Equity Funds and ETFs - Active equity funds have increased their positions, particularly in coal, communication, and home appliance sectors, while reducing positions in computers, non-bank financials, and electronics [7][45] - ETFs have continued to see net subscriptions, primarily in personal ETFs, with significant net purchases in non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, and machinery sectors [7][52]

Group 1 - Wall Street analysts have returned to a neutral outlook on gold prices following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, with 40% expecting prices to rise in the coming week, 20% predicting a decline, and 40% anticipating a sideways movement [1] - Retail investors have cooled their enthusiasm, with 58% optimistic about price increases, 24% forecasting declines, and 18% expecting consolidation, indicating a retreat from previous bullish sentiment [1] - The Shanghai gold price surged to a historic high, increasing by 2.01% to close at 846.5 yuan per gram [1] Group 2 - According to GF Futures, the market's interpretation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is neutral, with the dollar index rebounding after a decline [3] - Technical indicators suggest that the precious metals market has entered an overbought condition, leading to a potential pullback as funds may exit due to the "buy the rumor, sell the news" logic [3] - The outlook for the future indicates that with increasing risks in the U.S. labor market, the dual characteristics of "strengthened expectations - compromised independence" in the Federal Reserve's policy path will continue to suppress the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields, while geopolitical tensions in Europe and the U.S. will increase institutional demand for precious metals as a safe haven [3]

Exchange Rate Indices - The three major RMB exchange rate indices all experienced declines in the week of September 19, with the CFETS RMB index at 96.36, down 0.24% week-on-week [1][2] - The BIS currency basket RMB index reported 102.14, reflecting a 0.25% decrease, while the SDR currency basket RMB index stood at 90.90, down 0.22% [1][2] RMB to USD Exchange Rate - The RMB to USD exchange rate showed slight appreciation, achieving a "three-price unification" with onshore and offshore RMB rates rising to new highs for the year [6][7] - The offshore RMB briefly surpassed 7.10, closing at 7.1196, with a cumulative increase of 41 basis points for the week, while the onshore RMB closed at 7.1188, up 58 basis points [6][7] - The RMB central parity rate against the USD was reported at 7.1128, with a weekly decline of 109 basis points [6][7] Influencing Factors - The RMB's appreciation was driven by a combination of internal and external factors, including a weaker USD index due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which provided passive appreciation momentum for non-USD currencies like the RMB [6][7] - Analysts noted that the overall cross-border capital flow remained stable, supporting the RMB's continued appreciation, although the central parity rate's influence on the appreciation speed was noted to be moderate [7][8] Future Outlook - Experts suggest that the RMB's future appreciation may depend on the sustained weakness of the USD, with a moderate pace of appreciation expected [8] - There is potential for accelerated recovery in the RMB's value as foreign capital is anticipated to flow into RMB-denominated assets, driven by narrowing interest rate differentials between China and the US [8]

Core Viewpoint - The strengthening of the RMB exchange rate is a result of a combination of internal and external factors, as stated by the chief economist of China Securities, Guan Tao [1] Group 1: Reasons for RMB Strengthening - The first reason is the failure of the "American exceptionalism" narrative and the damage to the credibility of the US dollar, leading to a significant depreciation of the dollar [1] - The second reason is the recovery of the Chinese economy and the improvement in the prospects for technological innovation, which has led to a re-evaluation of Chinese assets [1] - The third reason is the positive progress in China-US economic and trade negotiations since mid-May, which has improved market sentiment [1] Group 2: Future Outlook for RMB - Market analysis suggests that the RMB may enter a new appreciation cycle [1] - Guan Tao believes that the RMB exchange rate is not significantly deviating from the equilibrium level, with factors influencing both appreciation and depreciation present simultaneously [1] Group 3: Positive Factors Influencing RMB - Four favorable factors are identified: 1. The Federal Reserve's potential return to interest rate cuts, which may weaken the dollar index further [1] 2. Trump's aggressive trade policies and interference with the independence of the Federal Reserve could further harm the international credibility of the dollar [1] 3. Active promotion of economic and trade negotiations by both China and the US [1] 4. China's proactive measures against external economic pressures and the continuous vitality of technological innovation [1] Group 4: Market Volatility - Guan Tao indicates that due to numerous internal and external uncertainties, the RMB exchange rate may experience more pronounced two-way fluctuations [1]

汇通财经APP讯——在美联储政策决策的关键时刻，新任理事米兰以独立姿态亮相，他公开表示将独立 分析经济数据，并在周一（9月22日）的纽约发言中全面阐述自己的利率观点。这位新上任的理事强 调，自己没有从特朗普总统那里收到任何政策指示，这不仅缓解了市场对美联储独立性的疑虑，还凸显 出当前利率政策的分歧。米兰支持更大幅度的降息，与美联储主流共识形成鲜明对比，而明尼亚波利斯 联储主席卡什卡利则认为米兰的上任不过是常规人事变动，并对美联储的公众信任表示乐观。整个事件 反映出美国经济政策在就业、通胀和政治影响之间的微妙平衡，值得投资者密切关注。 米兰的独立政策宣言 米兰作为美联储的新任理事，在上周五（9月19日）的公开表态中明确强调了自己的独立性。他表示， 自己将基于对经济数据的客观解读来制定政策，不会受到外部干扰。这位理事刚刚在上周的会议中宣誓 就职，并在会上支持降息50个基点，这让他成为唯一持此观点的人。米兰承认自己的立场与众不同，并 承诺将在周一的发言中详细解释背后的经济逻辑和计算过程。他认为，当前的利率水平距离"中性"还有 较大差距，经济中不存在明显的通胀风险，尤其是在严格移民政策的影响下，住房需求将受到抑制，从 ...