Group 1 - COMEX silver inventory remained stable at 15,770.78 tons as of August 13, 2025, with no change from the previous day [1][2] - COMEX silver price closed at $38.55 per ounce on August 13, 2025, reflecting a 1.61% increase, with a daily high of $38.71 and a low of $37.88 [1] Group 2 - In July 2025, the U.S. budget deficit increased by 20% compared to the previous year, despite record tariff revenues from President Trump's administration [2][3] - Customs revenue in July 2025 rose by 273% year-over-year, amounting to an increase of $21 billion, but overall spending also increased significantly [2] - The total federal debt is approaching $37 trillion, indicating ongoing financial pressure despite tariff income [2][3]

Geopolitical Impact on Oil Prices - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Mnuchin, indicated that if the upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin fails, the U.S. may intensify sanctions against Russia, including the potential for secondary tariffs [1][3] - Following Mnuchin's comments, international oil prices reacted, with Brent crude reaching $66.30 and WTI crude above $63.10 before experiencing a decline after Trump's remarks [3][5] - Analysts noted that geopolitical factors are driving oil prices, particularly in light of the uncertainty surrounding the Russia-Ukraine situation [5][7] Economic Insights and Consumer Impact - Goldman Sachs reported that the burden of tariff costs is increasingly falling on U.S. consumers, with their share expected to rise from 22% to 67% by October [5][7] - The firm projected that the PCE price index would increase to 3.2% year-over-year by December, up from 2.6% in June [5][7] - Trump's criticism of Goldman Sachs highlighted a disconnect between his views on tariffs and the economic realities presented by the firm [5][7] Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Outlook - Goldman Sachs' chief economist, David Mericle, stated that if tariffs follow a similar trajectory as in February, consumers will bear a significant portion of the costs [7] - Mericle suggested that the Federal Reserve may consider minor interest rate cuts, but these would not significantly alter overall monetary policy [7] - Mnuchin also commented on the Federal Reserve, suggesting that current interest rates should be lower by 150 to 175 basis points, indicating a potential for rate cuts if data supports it [7]

近日，有消息人士透露称，特朗普扬言对进口药品加征关税，但这些关税可能还需要几周时间才会实 施。 该人士称，美国国家安全部门对半导体的调查结果将在宣布药品关税前公布。此外，特朗普还忙于周五 即将与俄罗斯总统普京举行的会晤。 关税风暴持续 此前特朗普曾放风，希望通过关税举措，促进医药制药商将制造业务带回美国。他还威胁道：美国将首 先对进口药品征收"小额关税"，并在一年左右的时间内提高税率，税率最高将升至250%。 很多制药公司一直对关税持反对意见，有分析指出，相关关税可能会推高成本，阻碍在美国的投资，扰 乱药品供应链，使患者面临风险。美国药品行业最大的游说团体美国药品研究与制造商协会 （PhRMA）也认为，药品历来被免除关税，因为它们会增加成本并导致短缺。然而这些反对的声音似 乎很难改变"懂王"的看法。 目前医药行业正准备应对关税"冲击波"，上述消息人士的态度也给了市场一定的缓冲期。可以说，特朗 普对于关税的一举一动仍是市场关注的焦点。 值得注意的是，随着各国关税的逐步落地，其对经济、民生的影响也在显现，不少机构对此表示担忧。 博斯蒂克表示，美联储应避免可能给公众带来麻烦的政策波动，应该等待"形势发展更加明朗"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that U.S. consumers will bear an increasing burden of tariffs, with the cost expected to rise from 22% in June to 67% by October [2] Group 1: Economic Impact of Tariffs - Economists believe the maximum impact of tariffs on inflation has yet to be felt, with expectations of rising consumer inflation as inventory depletes and actual tariff rates increase from approximately 3% to 18% [1][4] - The tariffs could reduce GDP by 1% and increase inflation by 1% to 1.5%, with some effects already visible [4] - Monthly inflation increases are expected to be between 0.3% and 0.5%, pushing core inflation indicators to the 3% to 3.5% range [4] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Following Trump's criticism of Goldman Sachs, industry insiders noted that many economists with views contrary to the U.S. government's stance could face job losses [3] - The Blue Chip Economic Indicators report shows a slight increase in GDP growth forecasts for the second half of the year, now averaging 0.85% [5] Group 3: Inflation Trends and Concerns - Pantheon Macroeconomics forecasts core inflation to rise by 1 percentage point, reaching 3.5% by year-end, with only about 25% of the tariff impact currently passed to consumers [7] - BNP Paribas highlights upward pressure on service input prices, indicating that inflation concerns extend beyond goods [8] - The Cleveland Fed's sticky price CPI shows a three-month annualized rate of 3.8%, the highest since May 2024, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures [8]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs economists predict that by the end of this year, U.S. consumers will increasingly feel the impact of tariffs, leading to rising inflation and potential economic slowdown [1][2]. Economic Impact - Economists estimate that tariffs could reduce GDP by approximately 1% and increase inflation by 1% to 1.5%, with some effects already being felt [2]. - The effective tariff rate is expected to rise to around 18% from about 3% at the beginning of the year, contributing to a steady increase in prices [2]. - The impact of tariffs on consumer prices is uncertain, as the current tariff increases are unprecedented compared to historical data [2]. Inflation Trends - Inflation is projected to rise gradually, with core inflation potentially reaching 3.5% by the end of the year, driven by higher costs being passed on to consumers [4]. - The "sticky" nature of inflation is a concern, with the Cleveland Fed's "sticky price CPI" showing a three-month annualized rate of 3.8%, the highest since May 2024 [4]. Consumer Spending and Economic Growth - Short-term inflation increases may suppress consumer spending, with GDP growth for the second half of the year expected to be around 0.85% [3]. - Some economists believe that the restrictive effects of tariffs may be temporary, with expectations for significant growth improvement next year [3]. Future Concerns - The expiration of the "low-value tax exemption" on August 29 could particularly impact retail goods, leading to further price increases [4]. - There is a consensus among economists that higher inflation may lead to hesitation from policymakers regarding interest rate cuts, despite expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy in the future [5].

联想：关税对业务的当前影响有限。对特朗普100%芯片关税尚不明确，但公司不会处于不利地位。中美关税暂缓对公司业务而言是积极的形势。中国市场超过40%的AI PC用户为活跃用户。联想集团第一季度PC销售额中，有三分之一来自AI PC。AI PC和Windows 11迁移对PC销量的推动为过去15个季度以来最大。 ...

Core Insights - Trump proposes collaboration with Russia to develop rare earth minerals and lift export bans on aircraft parts [1] - US Treasury Secretary Basent suggests immediate interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Canadian central bank maintains current monetary policy amid trade uncertainties [2] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expresses caution regarding the economy, indicating reluctance to support rate cuts without clear signs of job market deterioration [2] Market Developments - US Energy Department allocates $1 billion for mineral security projects to ensure supply chain safety [1] - Mortgage rates for 30-year fixed contracts drop to 6.67%, marking the largest decline since February [1] - Korean ICT exports reach $22.19 billion in July, up 14.5% year-on-year, with semiconductor exports increasing by 31.2% [2] Global Market Dynamics - Dow Jones Industrial Average rises by 1.04% to 44,922.27 points, S&P 500 increases by 0.32% to 6,466.58 points, and Nasdaq Composite grows by 0.14% to 21,713.14 points [3] Commodity Prices - COMEX gold futures rise by 0.24% to $3,407.00 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increase by 1.44% to $38.55 per ounce [4] Oil and Bond Markets - US oil main contract decreases by 0.68% to $62.74 per barrel, Brent crude falls by 0.54% to $65.76 per barrel [5] - US Treasury yields decline across various maturities, with the 2-year yield down by 5.84 basis points to 3.668% [5] Currency Movements - US dollar index drops by 0.28% to 97.80, while the euro appreciates by 0.27% against the dollar [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. wholesale inflation rate is expected to show signs of recovery in July, indicating that businesses' ability to absorb high tariff costs is weakening, leading to increased pressure on consumer prices [1] - According to a FactSet survey, the Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to rise by 2.4% year-on-year in July, slightly up from 2.3% in June, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [1] - Goldman Sachs economists indicate that as of June, U.S. companies have absorbed about 64% of tariff costs, but this figure may drop to below 10% in the coming months, resulting in more costs being passed on to consumers [1] Group 2 - Economists believe that the maximum impact of tariffs on inflation has yet to be felt, with the effective tariff rate rising from approximately 3% at the beginning of the year to 18% [2] - JPMorgan's chief U.S. economist estimates that tariffs could reduce U.S. GDP by about 1% and increase inflation by 1 to 1.5 percentage points [2] - Most institutions expect a limited upward pressure on inflation (0.3%-0.5% monthly), primarily as a temporary shock, which will not prevent the Federal Reserve from initiating rate cuts in late 2025 [2] Group 3 - The Blue Chip Economic Indicators August survey shows that the average GDP growth rate for the second half of the year is expected to be 0.85%, an increase from the previous forecast of 0.75% in July [3] - Analysts have adjusted their expectations regarding the impact of tariffs, anticipating a significant economic recovery in 2026 [3]

经济面上，经济增速放缓、消费趋弱与通胀上行引发滞涨担忧。共和党主导的"大而美"法案包含的高额 支出与减税措施，预计将使美国债务在本年代末升至40万亿美元。但国债收益率并未因财政赤字扩大而 显著上升。 Cboe VIX波动率指数跌至去年12月以来低位14.46，隐含标普500单日波动仅57点，远低于4月的160点。 Northlight资产管理公司CIO Chris Zaccarelli认为，只要失业率保持低位、通胀不足以迫使美联储收紧政 策，牛市就会延续。 智通财经APP获悉，周三，美国股市延续强劲上涨势头，投资者似乎对一系列足以扰乱市场的风险因素 选择"视而不见"，风险偏好依旧高企。 近期，美股不仅无视特朗普总统日益复杂且充满波动性的关税策略，还忽略了通胀压力上升、消费支出 放缓等宏观隐忧，甚至在高企的估值背景下依旧上行。据美国银行8月全球基金经理调查，当前市场已 被普遍视为"严重高估"，但标普500指数年内涨幅接近10%，较4月8日"解放日"关税落地时的低点反弹 近30%。 特朗普推动将美联储调整为更贴合政府经济目标的机构，并解雇劳工统计局局长、提名有党派色彩且曾 建议取消月度就业数据发布的人选接任，同时 ...

与此同时，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克也表示，美国劳动力市场接近充分就业，为美联储提供了"从 容"的空间，无需急于调整政策。他在阿拉巴马的一次活动中指出："政策波动可能对公众造成困扰，我 倾向于等待更多清晰信号再行动。" 不过，他也警告称，7月就业报告显示新增岗位远低于预期，并对前两个月数据进行了历史性下调，如 果劳动力市场比预期更疲软，可能会改变政策讨论的平衡。博斯蒂克表示："未来五周内，我们的任务 是更好地了解就业市场状况，为9月政策会议做准备。" 美联储在7月29-30日的会议上将短期借贷利率维持在4.25%-4.50%区间，副主席鲍曼和理事沃勒投了反 对票，主张降息以应对潜在的劳动力市场疲软。古尔斯比认为，目前的经济信号更为复杂。 他指出，尽管经过近期修正的月度新增就业数据显示过去三个月平均仅增加35,000个岗位，但这可能更 多反映移民数量下降，而非需求疲软。他还提到，4.2%的失业率和低裁员率显示劳动力市场依然稳 健。 关于降息时机，古尔斯比表示，需要看到多个月的通胀数据稳定下降才能有信心采取行动。他解释 称："我们将持续获取信息，并沿着既定路径前进；如果通胀确实向2%目标靠拢，我们可能会更快地回 到 ...