Core Viewpoint - Copper prices showed a slight increase of 0.46% at closing, supported by a tight copper supply despite subdued downstream demand and limited accumulation of social inventory [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The US dollar index is operating at a low level, contributing to a favorable environment for copper prices [1] - Recent US inflation data for November came in below expectations, indicating signs of cooling inflation [1] - Initial jobless claims in the US were slightly lower than expected, which, along with dovish comments from some Federal Reserve officials, has bolstered expectations for a rate cut in January [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic copper exports have increased, while social inventory accumulation has been limited, particularly due to reduced inflows in Jiangsu and Guangdong [1] - The rise in domestic refined copper social inventory has slowed down as of Thursday, indicating a tightening supply situation [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - Jin Yuan Futures suggests that weaker US inflation data strengthens expectations for a rate cut next year, which may favor a dovish narrative [1] - The European Central Bank has paused rate cuts while raising economic growth forecasts, indicating a potential for stable rates over a longer period [1] - The global resumption of mining operations is slow, with low LME registered warehouse stocks, and domestic social inventory remains at a low level [1] - Attention is drawn to the upcoming long-term contract TC negotiations, with expectations that copper prices will maintain high volatility in the short term [1]

Group 1 - The core signal from global markets indicates that concerns over economic growth are replacing inflation fears as the key variable influencing asset prices [1] - A contradictory U.S. employment report triggered this shift, showing moderate growth in non-farm payrolls but an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.6%, a three-year high, alongside significant downward revisions of previous data [1] - The market interprets this as a green light for the Federal Reserve to initiate a rate-cutting cycle, strengthening expectations for a policy shift and causing a chain reaction across asset classes [1] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index continues to weaken due to the soft economic data, particularly the rise in unemployment, which undermines the dollar's interest rate advantage [1] - The U.S. stock market displays a mixed pattern of "recession trades" and "easing trades," with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 under pressure, particularly in the energy sector, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq index rises due to lower long-term interest rates benefiting growth-oriented tech companies [1] - Commodity markets reacted directly to growth concerns, with international oil prices plummeting nearly 3%, reaching their lowest since early 2021, driven by fears of demand shrinkage and oversupply due to potential peace agreements in the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] Group 3 - Gold prices surged after the data release, reflecting increased attractiveness as a zero-yield asset due to rate-cut expectations, maintaining above $4300 per ounce despite slight pullbacks [2] - The market's focus is shifting from "how persistent inflation is" to "how weak the economy is," with Federal Reserve policy expectations becoming the anchor for asset pricing [2] - Domestic market dynamics may be influenced by the combination of overseas recession and easing expectations, alongside significant domestic policy advancements such as the Hainan Free Trade Port closure and Level 3 autonomous driving commercial licenses [2]

CCMN国际市场：今日伦铝冲高回落，LME三个月北京时间14：56报于2883美元/吨，较上一交易日结 算价涨0.5美元/吨，涨幅0.02%。 国内期货：今日沪铝主力月2602合约强势反弹震荡；开盘价报21845元/吨，盘中最高22020元/吨，最低 21810元/吨，昨日结算21795元/吨，尾盘收至21915元/吨，涨120元，涨幅0.55%；沪铝主力月2602合约 全天成交量184098手减少57826手，持仓量293990手增加5157手。 CCMN现货市场评述：今日长江现货成交价格21730-21770元/吨，涨120元，贴水125-贴水85，跌5元； 广东现货21625-21675元/吨，涨130元，贴水230-贴水180，涨5元；上海地区21720-21760元/吨，涨120 元，贴水135-贴水95，跌5元。 宏观层面，周二美国劳工部公布最新数据，11月美国非农就业人数增加6.4万人，高于预期的5万人；但 失业率同步升至4.6%，创2021年9月以来新高。这一数据变化增加了美联储未来降息的可能性，为铝价 提供了一定支撑。此外，今日美国科技股回涨，国内A股三大指数集体反弹，新能源板块表现亮眼，获 ...

【股市3600股上涨点燃商品多头情绪，新能源与贵金属成最大亮点】 12月17日，国内A股重回涨势，恒生指数涨0.92%，恒生科技指数涨超1%。港股科技ETF（159751）涨 1.08%，恒生港股通ETF（159318）涨0.96%，创业板指午后直线拉升涨3.39%，全市场超3600家个股上 涨，成交额放量至1.81万亿元，带动商品市场情绪回暖。板块方面，碳酸锂飙升7.61%、铂钯尾盘双双 涨停、多晶硅再创上市新高，沪银跟涨5.05%刷新纪录。当股市风险偏好回升遇上商品基本面支撑，一 场"情绪+资金+产业"共振的上涨行情正在上演。 一、碳酸锂：7.61%暴涨背后，矿端"情绪扰动"与供需"紧平衡"共振 核心数据：碳酸锂主力合约收涨7.61%，报108620元/吨，创近3个月新高。长江综合数据显示，电池级 碳酸锂99.5%报99900-103500元/吨，均价报 101700元/吨，单日大涨4,500 元/吨；工业级碳酸锂99.2%报 98600-100800元/吨，均价报99700元/吨，单日大涨4,500 元/吨； 上涨逻辑： 矿端"情绪炸弹"：宜春市拟注销27宗过期采矿许可证（多为非在产矿），虽对实际产能影 ...

宏观层面，周四美国劳工统计局公布数据显示，2025 年 12 月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨 2.7%， 创 7 月以来最低水平，不仅低于市场预期的 3.1%，也低于 9 月 3.0%的同比涨幅。同期，核心通胀率 （剔除食品和能源价格）同比上涨 2.6%，为 2021 年 3 月以来最低值，同样低于预期的 3.0%。受美国 政府停摆影响，劳工统计局未能采集 2025 年 10 月相关数据，致使 10 月 CPI 数据缺失，11 月月度数据 也未发布。不过该机构称，9 月至 11 月的两个月间，消费者价格指数累计上涨 0.2%。此次公布的 CPI 数据，为美联储内部鸽派阵营主张进一步降息提供了有力支撑。降息预期通常利好有色金属，利空美元 汇率。 基本面方面，国内电解铝运行产能整体变动不大，因产能已达上限，供应难有明显增量。需求端，虽进 入消费淡季，下游整体消费趋弱，但未出现趋势性大幅下滑的情况。下游年底赶工态势显著，汽车、电 子等行业消费具韧性且铝锭社库低位。截至 12 月 18 日，中国主要市场电解铝库存为 56.1 万吨，较本 周一减少 1.6 万吨，铝价底部支撑尚存。不过，后市预期不佳，叠加年底回笼资 ...

（长江有色金属网cjys.cn研发团队) 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 铅市场正呈现"供应收缩"与"需求分化"并存的紧平衡格局。供应端，原生铅受原料紧张与集中检修影 响，产量边际下滑；再生铅则因废电瓶到货不畅、利润低迷而普遍减产，整体供应呈收缩态势。需求 端，市场出现结构性分化：汽车起动电池受益于冬季替换与备货需求，形成稳健支撑；而电动自行车等 传统消费步入淡季，且出口持续疲软，对整体需求形成拖累。产业链各环节传导不畅：上游矿端偏紧压 制中游冶炼开工，下游则按需采购、态度谨慎。在此背景下，铅价下方存在供应收紧带来的成本支撑， 但上行空间受制于需求的结构性疲软，预计短期维持震荡运行，价格方向取决于"供应减量"与"淡季需 求"二者的博弈强度。 今日走势预测： 宏观面情绪转暖，铅市基本面冬歇减产叠加转型调整，供给收缩显韧性，终端需求分化明显，预计短期 内铅价震荡修复反弹。 【ccmn.cn铅期货市场】隔周伦铅收跌，开盘报1957美元/吨，高点报1965.5美元，低点报1951.5美元， 尾盘收于1960美元，下跌1美元；成交量4806手。国内夜盘沪期铅弱势震荡，尾盘小幅收跌，主力合约 沪铅2601收报16 ...

Group 1 - The market experienced a slight increase on December 19, with the non-ferrous metals sector leading the gains, including copper, aluminum, and rare earths, with Yun Aluminum rising over 60% [1] - The Industrial Non-Ferrous ETF (560860) saw a trading volume exceeding 3.1 billion, surpassing the total from the previous day, indicating active trading with frequent premiums in the market [1] - The Industrial Non-Ferrous ETF has attracted significant capital, with over 5.8 billion raised in the last 10 days, over 11 billion in the last 20 days, and over 28 billion in the last 60 days, bringing its latest scale to 69.88 billion [1] Group 2 - Internationally, U.S. inflation showed unexpected easing, with the November core CPI rising by 2.6%, the lowest since 2021, providing the Federal Reserve with substantial room to consider interest rate cuts [3] - LME metal futures generally rose, with LME copper increasing by 41 USD to 11,778 USD/ton and LME aluminum rising by 10 USD to 2,916 USD/ton [3] - In the rare earth sector, Chinese authorities have communicated policies to exporters, with some exporters meeting the basic requirements for applying for general licenses, indicating a potential increase in exports [3] Group 3 - According to Guotai Junan Securities, copper is expected to see dual positive catalysts from its financial and commodity attributes, with increased demand and inventory pressures due to insufficient supply [3] - Aluminum is anticipated to break out of its three-year price range due to strong demand and low inventory, entering a phase of significant upward movement driven by demand catalysts [4] - The Industrial Non-Ferrous ETF closely tracks the CSI Industrial Non-Ferrous Metals Theme Index, covering leading strategic resources such as copper, aluminum, and rare earths, providing opportunities for investors to capitalize on cyclical and policy-driven benefits [4]

市场解读： 新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同 其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。 责任编辑：陈平 市场解读： 12月19日，黄金作为全球投资者眼中的避险之王，在2025年末的金融市场中再度上演了一出惊心动魄的 过山车行情。周四（12月18日），金价一度飙升至4374美元/盎司的近两个月高点，却在短时间内回吐 涨幅，收盘时勉强守住阵地，收报4332.31美元/盎司。这一波动并非孤立事件，而是深受美国最新消费 者物价指数（CPI）数据影响的产物。低于预期的通胀数据一方面刺激了美联储降息预期，推动美债收 益率下滑，为金价提供了短暂的上涨动力；另一方面，却削弱了黄金作为通胀对冲工具的吸引力，导致 多头获利了结。结合白银创下历史新高和钯金触及三年峰值等贵金属市场动态，这场金价波动揭示出全 球经济复苏中的不确定性，为投资者提供了审视黄金未来走势的绝佳窗口。 黄金技术分析： 本周黄金在多头趋势中，随时会出现调整空间，经过这四天的波动，大家也都看到了，周一出现强势上 涨，周二小幅调整，周三震荡上行，周四强势刷新高点再大跌， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are influenced by U.S. inflation data and geopolitical uncertainties, with current prices fluctuating around $4,321.99 per ounce, reflecting a slight decline of 0.22% [1][2] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, significantly lower than the expected 3.1%, suggesting easing inflation pressures which could support the Federal Reserve's accommodative monetary policy [1][2] - The report on CPI data has been criticized for its reliability due to data collection issues caused by a 43-day government shutdown, leading to significant gaps and biases in the data [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Venezuela, continue to drive some investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset, while industrial and long-term investment demand remains robust, limiting price adjustments [2] - Goldman Sachs projects that gold prices could rise by 14% to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026, indicating a potential upward trend despite short-term weaknesses [2] - Analysts suggest that while short-term indicators may show weakness, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, with a focus on monitoring Federal Reserve actions, data revisions, and political nominations [2]

今日周五(12月19日)亚盘时段，国际金价回落至4350美元以下，延续了前一个交易日的震荡整理态势。 此次回调主要由于短期合约中的获利回吐和多头头寸减少，而非出现显著的趋势性抛售压力。在连续创 下新高之后，部分投资者选择暂时离场观望，导致金价短期内承受一定压力。 摘要今日周五(12月19日)亚盘时段，国际金价回落至4350美元以下，延续了前一个交易日的震荡整理态 势。此次回调主要由于短期合约中的获利回吐和多头头寸减少，而非出现显著的趋势性抛售压力。在连 续创下新高之后，部分投资者选择暂时离场观望，导致金价短期内承受一定压力。 然而，需注意的是，美国政府此前的停摆问题对部分经济数据的统计和完整性造成了影响，使得市场在 解读通胀走势时保持谨慎态度。短期内，投资者将密切关注即将公布的密歇根大学消费者信心指数，以 评估通胀预期和消费信心的变化趋势。 【最新国际黄金行情解析】 从技术结构看，黄金依旧保持鲜明的多头格局：价格稳于关键均线之上，高低点逐步抬升，趋势延续性 良好。目前金价坚守100周期指数均线支撑，中期上升通道完好无损。 RSI运行于中轴之上，虽有回落仍处强势区，显示多头仍占优；布林带持续开口，预示行情具备进 ...