周一亚市早盘，现货黄金震荡微跌，失守3330美元/盎司关口，现交投于3327美元附近。美国总统特朗 普计划当日与以色列总理内塔尼亚胡会晤，商讨加沙停火细节，市场避险情绪小幅降温。临近7月9日关 税暂停截止日，观望情绪浓厚，而美国财长贝森特暗示关税重启日期延至8月1日，进一步缓解短期担 忧。本周美联储会议纪要及地缘政治进展将成为关键催化剂。 地缘政治：短期缓和VS长期不确定性 特朗普与内塔尼亚胡的会晤聚焦加沙60天停火及人质交换条款，以色列立场软化或削弱黄金避险需求。 但地缘冲突的反复性意味着，一旦谈判受阻，黄金仍可能快速反弹。此外，OPEC+计划8月增产54.8万 桶/日，可能压低油价并缓解通胀压力，间接削弱黄金保值需求，但地缘风险仍为金价提供潜在支撑。 美国政策：财政扩张与关税阴云支撑金价 美联储：降息预期分化，黄金短期波动长期受益 美联储面临两难：通胀回落提供降息空间，但6月新增就业14.7万、失业率4.1%显示经济强劲，市场对7 月和9月降息预期降温。SIA财富管理策略师Colin Cieszynski认为，若2025年降息80基点（9月、12月各 一次），可能推高金价。但过早降息或引发通胀反弹，历史上 ...

一、现货黄金基本面： 三、现货白银技术面： 5. 央行购金需求强劲：2025年全球央行对黄金储备的需求量维持高位。据世界黄金协会统计，2025年前四个月，各央行净购金256吨。中国人民银行截至 2025年5月末，已连续七个月扩大黄金储备。世界黄金协会6月17日发布的调查显示，95%的受访央行认为未来12个月内全球央行将继续增持黄金，近43%的 央行计划在未来一年内增加自身黄金储备，央行的购金行为对黄金价格形成有力支撑。 6. 市场需求结构变化：2025年一季度全球金矿产量同比增长0.5%至890吨，但同期黄金ETF流入量达226吨，推动投资需求同比增长170%。中国、印度等传 统消费大国金饰需求同比下降32%，而投资需求占比从2024年的18%跃升至34%。这种"消费萎缩、投资扩张"的格局，预示黄金正从商品属性向金融属性加 速转变，投资需求的增长有利于黄金价格上行。 二、现货黄金技术面： 回顾上周五现货黄金的价格走势，上周五美国独立日假期，美国市场休市一天，整体成交量萎缩，价格波动较小，截至目前市场报价约3330.00美元/盎司。 从短线1H周期技术图形观察，1H价格明显处于横盘震荡的走势中。 基于当前技术形 ...

【要闻速递】 周一（7月7日）亚洲时段，伦敦金开盘走弱，现货黄金走势下挫，接连失守3320、3310美元关口，短期 内，金价可能在3300至3400美元/盎司区间内震荡，交易者应保持谨慎，等待明确突破信号。 7月3日公布的6月美国非农就业数据显示，新增就业岗位14.7万个，超出市场预期的11.1万个，失业率降 至4.1%。这一强劲数据削弱了市场对美联储7月降息的预期，美元指数自多年低点97附近反弹，金价因 此在周四出现显著回落。市场目前预计美联储降息概率降至25%，对金价走势构成短期压力。 特朗普推动的90天关税暂停期将于7月9日到期，美国计划向各国发送信函，明确对出口商品的关税税 率。这一政策引发市场对全球贸易和经济增长的避险情绪，支撑了黄金作为避险资产的需求。然而，关 税政策的不确定性也导致市场波动加剧，黄金价格在高位承压。 【技术面分析】 黄金行情上周整体呈震荡上行，当周最低3246，最高3365，周线收阳于3337，周线看两阳后收阴，虽处 于上行通道，但形态看还有下跌，本周先看3250和3200，日线，呈大区间震荡，综述金价还将处于大区 间来回震荡，短线有回调，重点关注消息面，3250下破则看3200 ...

Market Overview - The gold market experienced significant volatility this week, with prices reaching new highs before a pullback, ultimately recording a weekly increase of 1.91% [1] - Factors influencing gold prices include easing geopolitical risks, uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies, concerns over U.S. sovereign debt, and strong economic data [1] - Market focus is on upcoming events such as U.S. non-farm payroll data, the expiration of Trump's tariff suspension, and the Federal Reserve's policy outlook [1] Gold Price Analysis - Weekly analysis shows gold prices dropped to $3247.4 before rebounding to a high of $3365.6, closing with a bullish weekly candle [3] - Technical indicators such as TRIX, KDJ, and MACD suggest a bearish outlook, with expectations for gold to potentially decline to $3200 in the near term [3] - On Friday, influenced by the U.S. Independence Day holiday, gold showed limited volatility, with a recommendation to short positions around $3345-$3348, resulting in a profit as prices fell to $3331 [3] Trading Recommendations - For the upcoming week, a trading strategy suggests shorting gold around $3347-$3350, with a stop loss at $3355 and a target profit at $3325 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The oil price experienced significant fluctuations in H1 2025 due to a combination of geopolitical disturbances and OPEC+ production increases, leading to a downward trend in oil prices [1][11] - Geopolitical risks, particularly the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict and uncertainties surrounding the Iran nuclear issue, are expected to continue impacting oil prices [2][15] - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August 2025, with a projected global oil supply increase of 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025 [3][17] - Oil demand growth expectations have been revised downward, with IEA predicting an increase of 720,000 barrels per day in 2025, primarily due to weak demand from the US and China [4][24] - The "Big Three" oil companies in China are focusing on high capital expenditure and strategic production increases to mitigate external uncertainties [4][27] Summary by Sections Oil Price Trends - In H1 2025, oil prices showed a downward trend, with Brent and WTI prices at $66.63 and $64.97 per barrel respectively, down 11.0% and 9.6% from the beginning of the year [1][11] Geopolitical Risks - The Russia-Ukraine conflict is expected to persist, with slow progress in peace talks affecting market sentiment [2][12] - The Iran nuclear issue remains a significant geopolitical risk, with potential for escalation impacting oil prices [15] Supply Dynamics - OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, with a total increase of 1.918 million barrels per day since April 2025 [3][17] - The US shale oil production is expected to slow down, providing some support against the global supply increase [19] Demand Expectations - The IEA has lowered its oil demand growth forecast for 2025 by approximately 300,000 barrels per day, citing weak demand from major economies [4][24] - The "Big Three" oil companies are adapting to these changes by increasing their production plans [4][27] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a continued positive outlook for the "Big Three" oil companies and the oil service sector, emphasizing the importance of macroeconomic recovery for chemical demand [5]

导语：母公司紫金矿业已向国际投资争端解决中心提起4.3亿美元诉 讼，指控哥伦比亚政府未 尽监管职责 。 01 公司概况与行业背景 紫金黄金国际是紫金矿业集团旗下专注海外黄金业务的子公司，计划在香港联交所主板上市，拟融 资10-20亿美元。该公司整合了紫金矿业除中国以外所有黄金矿山资产，包括位于塔吉克斯坦、吉尔 吉斯斯坦、澳大利亚等个国家的8座金矿 。 紫金黄金国际目前的黄金总储量为696.83吨，2024年产量46.22吨，位居全球第十一。 紫金黄金国际拟赴港上市、吸引国际投资者，这使得其地缘政治风险更加不容忽视。去年在哥伦比 亚，这些风险已对其资产造成实际损害。 此次IPO包含的金矿资产之一，哥伦比亚武里蒂卡金矿的运营面临严重安全挑战。去年11月，当地贩毒 集团"海湾帮"支持非法矿工控制了约60%的矿道，导致2024年损失约3.2吨黄金，价值2亿美元，相当于 该矿总产量的38%。母公司紫金矿业已向国际投资争端解决中心提起4.3亿美元诉讼，指控哥伦比亚政 府未尽监管职责。 02 财务与运营表现 2022-2024年，紫金黄金国际展现出强劲的增长势头： 公司在成本控制方面表现优异： 收入从18.18亿美元增至2 ...

3. 乌称俄对基辅空袭已致2死31伤。 其他情况： 1. 美国总统特朗普：（关于向乌克兰提供爱国者导弹）我们确实讨论过这个问题。我们必须得到保护。 金十数据整理：俄乌冲突最新24小时局势跟踪（7月6日） 冲突情况： 1. 乌克兰总参谋部：我们炮击了俄罗斯沃罗涅日的鲍里索格列布斯克机场，并击中了一个炸弹库和一架 训练机。 2. 乌克兰最高将领：俄可能在东北部发动新的攻势。 2. 欧盟将建立关键矿产紧急储备，以应对地缘政治风险。 3. 俄罗斯联邦航空局因预期乌克兰无人机威胁而暂时暂停叶戈里耶夫斯克和伊万诺沃机场的空中交通。 4. 俄驻瑞典贸易代表处遭无人机泼洒油漆。 5. 罗马尼亚总理：不会向乌克兰派遣军队。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing extreme volatility following the Independence Day holiday, with significant fluctuations in trading volume and price levels, creating a battleground for bulls and bears [1][5]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Trading volume in the gold market dropped by 40% due to the early closure of the New York exchange for Independence Day, leading to a liquidity crisis [1]. - Gold prices fluctuated within a narrow range of $3323 to $3330, with a volatility of less than $7, indicating a stagnant market [1]. - A sudden sell-off of 500 contracts pushed prices below the $3320 mark, but aggressive buying from central banks quickly restored prices, highlighting the market's fragility [1]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The daily chart shows gold prices breaking below the 60-day moving average ($3319) and the 20-day moving average ($3345), indicating a bearish trend [3]. - The 4-hour chart presents a contrasting view, with a long lower shadow at the $3311 low and an RSI divergence suggesting that selling pressure may be waning [3]. - The $3320-$3330 range is identified as a critical battleground, consolidating various technical indicators that could influence future price movements [3]. Group 3: Economic Data Impact - The U.S. Labor Department reported a surprising increase in non-farm payrolls, with 147,000 new jobs added, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 110,000 [5]. - The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, the lowest since the pandemic, but the private sector only added 74,000 jobs, the lowest since October 2024, indicating underlying economic weakness [5]. - The dollar index surged by 55 points, surpassing the 97.4 mark, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 6.7 basis points following the employment data release [5]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Geopolitical Factors - The gold market is facing three conflicting pressures: diverging policy expectations, easing geopolitical risks, and a surge in central bank gold purchases [5]. - While traders are selling gold in anticipation of delayed interest rate cuts, they are also looking to buy at lower levels due to signs of economic weakness [5]. - Central banks globally, particularly the People's Bank of China, are expected to continue increasing gold reserves, with premiums in the Shanghai gold market rising to $35 per ounce [5]. Group 5: Trading Strategies - Traders are advised to employ a "tightrope strategy," placing buy orders at $3323 with a stop-loss at $3316 and a target of $3335, while considering short positions above $3335 [7]. - Attention should be given to potential tariff policies from the U.S., which could influence trading decisions significantly [7]. - The gold-silver ratio has risen to 89.7, suggesting potential arbitrage opportunities as silver prices remain suppressed [7].

Group 1 - Recent gold prices have surpassed $3,344 per ounce amid escalating conflicts in the Middle East, leading to a surge in safe-haven investments in gold [2] - A significant price disparity exists in the domestic market, with retail gold prices reaching 1,005 CNY per gram compared to a wholesale price of 756 CNY per gram, indicating a potential market imbalance [2] - Historical patterns suggest that July could be a pivotal month for gold prices, reminiscent of last year's fluctuations between $3,200 and $3,300 per ounce before a breakout [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy is a critical factor, with a recent employment report causing a drop in expectations for a September rate cut from 78% to 65%, which could impact gold prices significantly [4] - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising, with potential for a "black swan" event that could cause gold prices to spike to $3,400 per ounce if Israel engages in ground operations [4] - Technical analysis indicates that the $3,400 per ounce level is a focal point, with previous attempts to breach this level failing, and a drop below $3,280 could lead to further declines [4] Group 3 - Institutional investors are adjusting their strategies, with HSBC raising its 2025 gold price forecast to $3,215 per ounce while advising clients to reduce positions above $3,350 per ounce [5] - Market participants are employing varied strategies, with some investing weekly to maintain an average cost below 760 CNY per gram, while others engage in high-frequency trading within specific price ranges [5] - The upcoming U.S. economic data is seen as a potential "ticking time bomb" for gold prices, with a core CPI below 2.8% possibly driving prices to $3,500 per ounce, while strong GDP growth could trigger a sell-off [5]

超级巨头遭遇全线亏损。 据日本政府养老金投资基金（GPIF）最新公布的数据，今年1月至3月，该基金账面亏损达8.815万亿日元（约 合人民币4400亿元），持有的四大资产类别（海外股票、海外债券、日本股票、日本债券）全线亏损。 分析指出，GPIF遭遇全线溃败的主要原因是，美国政府的关税政策重挫全球股市，同时美联储降息预期令美 元兑日元汇率走低，加剧了GPIF持有的海外资产的日元计价损失。 回到市场层面，在美国政府设定的关税豁免期结束前夕，市场情绪愈发谨慎，日经225指数本周累计下跌 0.85%，结束了此前连续三周的上涨。美国财政部长贝森特此前暗示在美方设定的7月9日谈判期限前可能无法 与日本达成协议。 巨亏4400亿元 当地时间7月4日，全球规模最大的国家级养老基金之一——日本政府养老金投资基金（GPIF）公布数据显 示，今年1月至3月，该基金账面亏损达8.815万亿日元（约合人民币4400亿元），相当于亏损3.4%。 截至今年3月底，GPIF管理的总资产规模为249.8万亿日元（约合人民币12.4万亿元），其中，日本国内股票占 比23.94%，日本国内债券占比27.64%，外国股票占比24.05%，外国债券 ...