1月26日，黄金和白银价格再创新高。伦敦现货黄金价格盘中一度突破5100美元／盎司，年内涨幅超 18%；伦敦现货白银价格盘中一度突破110美元／盎司，年内涨幅超50%。今年以来，贵金属价格震荡 走高，笔者认为，核心驱动来自贸易冲突、全球央行购金、地缘风险三方面。 最后，地缘风险上升使得贵金属获得了较高的风险溢价。美国年初对委内瑞拉发起大规模军事行动，强 行控制委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其夫人并将他们带至美国，进一步强化了美国所谓"门罗主义"叙事，而争 夺关键矿产资源的目的也令贵金属直接受益。伊朗方面，美国官员表示，尽管已撤回对伊朗的打击计 划，但特朗普仍要求幕僚提供所谓的"决定性"军事选项。相关讨论正值美国向中东派遣航空母舰与喷气 式战斗机之际。这些部署可能标志着更大规模军事集结的开始，若特朗普决定对伊朗实施打击，此举将 为打击行动提供所需火力。美国官员透露，特朗普在描述希望美国行动对伊朗产生何种效果时，反复使 用了"决定性"一词。这一措辞促使美国五角大楼和白宫的幕僚细化了一系列供特朗普选择的方案，其中 一些方案旨在推动伊朗政权更迭。格陵兰岛方面，特朗普自去年上任以来曾多次扬言要得到格陵兰岛。 1月20日，美国总统 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical products are expected to show an oscillatory trend in the short - term. Factors such as supply and demand changes, geopolitical situations, and seasonal impacts all have an influence on the market. For example, the supply of crude oil has increased, which eases the market's concerns about shortages, but geopolitical tensions in the Middle East still bring uncertainties; the fuel oil market is affected by factors such as the situation in Iran and supply changes; the polyester market is affected by device maintenance and downstream demand [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices fluctuated and declined. The WTI March contract closed down $0.44 to $60.63 per barrel, a decline of 0.72%. The Brent March contract closed down $0.29 to $65.59 per barrel, a decline of 0.44%. The SC2603 closed at 450.1 yuan per barrel, down 0.8 yuan per barrel, a decline of 0.18%. The resumption of a key Black Sea terminal and the upcoming restart of the Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan have increased supply, easing concerns about shortages. However, the continuous tension in the Middle East and the dispatch of US naval forces have also increased concerns about Iranian oil production. The oil price is in a chaotic state and will continue to oscillate in the short - term [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contract FU2603 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 6.81% to 2791 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2604 rose 3.49% to 3206 yuan per ton. The price increase of FU was significantly affected by the escalation of the situation in Iran. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is strong due to the recovery of downstream demand, but the expected increase in the volume of low - sulfur fuel oil arbitrage vessels arriving in Singapore in January may bring inventory accumulation pressure. The high - sulfur fuel oil market has a mix of long and short factors. The absolute prices of FU and LU are greatly affected by geopolitical situations and are recommended to be observed for the time being [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract BU2603 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.39% to 3279 yuan per ton. In February, refinery production is expected to decline slightly, and some local refineries have stopped production in the short - term, tightening supply. The demand is in the off - season, and cold snaps and snowfall have hindered terminal demand. The market still has expectations of potential shortages of raw materials for local refineries in the far - month, but the impact on the recent market has weakened. Attention should be paid to the speed of social inventory accumulation [2]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 5438 yuan per ton, down 0.18%; EG2605 closed at 3994 yuan per ton, down 0.08%. The PX futures main contract 603 closed at 7522 yuan per ton, up 0.19%. The sales of polyester yarn in the Yangtze River Delta and Zhejiang regions are weak, with an average sales estimate of about 50%. Multiple polyester and ethylene glycol plants have undergone maintenance or restart operations. After the Spring Festival, the demand is expected to recover. It is expected that the prices of PX and TA will oscillate at a high level, and the price of ethylene glycol will show an oscillatory trend [2][3]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main natural rubber contract RU2605 fell 85 yuan per ton to 16230 yuan per ton, and the NR main contract fell 10 yuan per ton to 13085 yuan per ton, while the butadiene rubber BR main contract rose 335 yuan per ton to 13265 yuan per ton. The inventory in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone decreased, while the general trade inventory in Qingdao increased. Overseas rubber production is coming to an end, and the port inventory is accumulating. The rubber market has limited contradictions, and the rubber price is expected to remain oscillatory. The supply and demand of butadiene are temporarily tight, and the price of butadiene rubber is expected to follow the cost [3][5]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2300 yuan per ton. The supply of domestic methanol is at a high - level oscillation, and the MTO operating load in East China has weakened. The overall demand is weak, and the port still has pressure to reduce inventory. It is expected that methanol will maintain a bottom - level oscillation [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6530 - 6650 yuan per ton. The supply has increased due to the resumption of production of some upstream plants, while the downstream demand will weaken as the Spring Festival approaches. It is expected that polyolefins will gradually start to accumulate inventory, but the price will be affected by cost and geopolitical risks in the short - term and will show a wide - range oscillation [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Monday, the market prices of PVC in East China, North China, and South China all increased. The supply is at a high - level oscillation, and the domestic demand is slowing down. The overall fundamental situation is bearish, but the export policy will have different impacts in the short - and long - term. It is expected that the PVC price will maintain a bottom - level oscillation [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes for multiple energy and chemical products including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, linear low - density polyethylene, polypropylene, purified terephthalic acid, ethylene glycol, styrene, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and soda ash on January 26 and January 23, 2026 [7]. 3.3 Market News - The resumption of a key Black Sea terminal in Kazakhstan and the upcoming restart of the Tengiz oilfield have increased the supply of crude oil, easing market concerns about shortages. At the same time, the continuous tension in the Middle East and the dispatch of US naval forces have increased concerns about Iranian oil production [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for multiple energy and chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, and p - xylene from 2022 to 2026 [11][12][13][15][17][19][20][21][22]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts for multiple products including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips from 2022 to 2026 [23][24][27][28][29]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts for multiple products such as fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, LLDPE, PP, and natural rubber from 2022 to 2026 [31][33][37][39][41][43]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report presents the spread and ratio charts of inter - variety for multiple products such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur, fuel oil/asphalt, BU/SC, ethylene glycol - PTA, PP - LLDPE, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber from 2022 to 2026 [46][48][49][53]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit, processing fee, and cash - flow charts for multiple products such as LLDPE, PP, PTA, and ethylene - made ethylene glycol from 2022 to 2026 [55][56]. 3.5 Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including Deputy Director Zhong Meiyan, Energy and Chemical Research Director Du Bingqin, Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst Di Yilin, and Methanol/Propylene/Pure Benzene PE/PP/PVC Analyst Peng Haibo, along with their educational backgrounds, honors, and work experiences [60][61][62][64].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.09% to close at 4132.61 points, with a daily high of 4160.99 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.85% to 14316.64 points, reaching a high of 14532.9 points [1] - The ChiNext Index dropped by 0.91% to 3319.15 points, with a peak of 3367.99 points [1] ETF Market Performance Overall Performance - The median return of stock ETFs was -0.4% [2] - The highest return among scale index ETFs was 5.37% for the Shenwan Lingshin SSE 50 ETF [2] - The highest return in industry index ETFs was 6.23% for the China Tai Index Nonferrous Metal Mining Theme ETF [2] - The highest return in strategy index ETFs was 3.17% for the Morgan SSE 300 Free Cash Flow ETF [2] - The highest return in style index ETFs was 2.1% for the Yinhua SSE 300 Value ETF [2] - The highest return in theme index ETFs was 8.67% for the Huaxia SSE Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF [2] Top Gainers and Losers - The top three ETFs with the highest gains were: - Huaxia SSE Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF (8.67%) [5] - Ping An SSE Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF (8.57%) [5] - ICBC Credit Suisse SSE Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF (8.45%) [5] - The top three ETFs with the largest declines were: - Fortune SSE Satellite Industry ETF (-8.16%) [6] - China Merchants SSE Satellite Industry ETF (-7.97%) [6] - GF SSE Satellite Industry ETF (-7.91%) [6] Fund Flows - The top three ETFs with the highest inflows were: - Penghua SSE Segmented Chemical Industry Theme ETF (14.47 billion) [8] - Southern SSE Shenwan Nonferrous Metals ETF (11.45 billion) [8] - Guotai SSE Semiconductor Materials Equipment Theme ETF (11.26 billion) [8] - The top three ETFs with the largest outflows were: - Huatai-PB SSE 300 ETF (183.76 billion) [9] - Huaxia SSE 300 ETF (147.83 billion) [9] - Jiashi SSE 300 ETF (136.13 billion) [9] Margin Trading Overview - The top three ETFs with the highest margin buy amounts were: - Huatai-PB SSE 300 ETF (1.114 billion) [11] - E Fund ChiNext ETF (540 million) [11] - Huaxia SSE Sci-Tech 50 ETF (516 million) [11] - The top three ETFs with the highest margin sell amounts were: - Southern SSE 1000 ETF (68.87 million) [12] - Southern SSE 500 ETF (54.47 million) [12] - Huaxia SSE 1000 ETF (43.57 million) [12] Institutional Insights - Dongwu Futures indicated that gold prices still have upward momentum due to ongoing de-dollarization, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases [14] - Guotai Futures noted that the annual increase in gold prices for 2025 is expected to reach the highest level since 1979, with potential for further upward movement [15]

今天（1月26日），伦敦现货黄金一早就突破5000美元/盎司大关，北京时间下午接近三点的时候，冲上 了5100美元/盎司，再创历史新高。白银价格突破了100美元/盎司，比历史高位整整翻了一倍。此外， 铜价也大幅上涨。金、银、铜集体大涨，背后有哪些原因？听老王给您梳理。 先看黄金，老王看了一下走势图，黄金价格最近是连续6个交易日天天上涨。金价创历史新高已不再是 新闻。金价狂飙的背后是全球资金对美元信心动摇。美国债务高企、财政赤字不断扩大，美元信用根基 受到冲击。 更关键的是，当前全球地缘政治风险反复，黄金作为避风港的吸引力进一步凸显。此外，市场预期美联 储今年还将降息，不管是机构还是普通人，纷纷加码黄金以实现资产保值。 最意外的是铜条，它走红的核心是工业需求托底。新能源、充电桩、电网改造等新基建项目，哪一样都 离不开铜这位"工业筋骨"，在全球新基建推进下，铜的需求只会增不会减。更重要的是，铜的投资门槛 远低于金银，很多老百姓也开始跃跃欲试。 再看白银，白银这一轮的涨势比黄金更猛，它的背后既有金融属性，又有扎实的工业需求支撑。在金融 端，白银跟着黄金沾了避险资金的光；在工业端，光伏、新能源汽车、人工智能数据中心等 ...

기술 消息面 1/27 美国官员： 美国总统特朗普完全赞同以色列总理内塔尼亚胡的声明，即在哈马斯实现非军事化和解除武装之前，加沙的重建不会开始。 1/27 美国总统特朗普表示 因为他向该地区派遣了 伊朗局势 "瞬息万变 - 支 "庞大的舰队" 但他认为伊朗确实想要达成协议 1/27 黎巴嫩真主党：不会对针对伊朗的军事行动袖手旁观。 伊朗对美发出警告：若遵军事打击将袭击美航母。 1/26 以色列民航局称本周末进入敏感时期。当地时间1月25日，以色列民航局向多家外国航空公司发出通知称，以色列可能在本月30日（本周 -且安全评估显示无法确保合理安全水平，以色列将立即关闭领空，届时将优先保障外国航班离境。 天内即可对伊朗动武。26日，一名不愿公开姓名的美国官员表示，美国海军 "亚伯拉罕·林肯" 号 "敏感时期" 通知强调 , 五）前后进入 号航母打击群- —两天内即可对伊朗动武。 号航空 1/27 美官员: "林肯' 母舰打击群已经驶入美军中央司令部在西印度洋的责任区。如果白宫下令打击伊朗，理论上，该航母打击群在 -两天内"就能发起军事行动. EC主力合约价格走势 EC远期曲线 1800 6000 1700 5000 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, precious metals, especially industrial precious metals, will continue to be strong, but the large inflow of speculative funds has also increased price volatility. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish trading mindset but control position sizes, while short - hedgers should appropriately reduce the hedging ratio [4] - Geopolitical risks, the safe - haven demand brought by the US mid - term elections, the liquidity premium from global central banks' joint easing, and the weakening of the US dollar exchange rate will drive the price of London gold to 5300 - 5500 US dollars per ounce in 2026 [6] - The price of London silver is expected to rise to 130 - 145 US dollars per ounce in 2026, London platinum to 3000 - 3200 US dollars per ounce, and London palladium to 2200 - 2350 US dollars per ounce [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Market Conditions and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - Geopolitical risks have increased the safe - haven demand for precious metals, and the weakening of the US dollar index has enhanced the pricing currency factor. As a result, external precious metal prices have continued to rise. London gold has broken through the 5100 US dollars per ounce mark, and industrial precious metals such as silver, platinum, and palladium have seen larger increases. The adjustment risk in the precious metal market was fully released in late December 2025 [4] 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - Due to Trump's new policy focus shifting to the military, the pressure of the mid - term elections, and the central banks' shift from balance - sheet reduction to expansion, the US dollar index will continue to be weak. This, along with other factors, will push the price of London gold to 5300 - 5500 US dollars per ounce in 2026 [6] - The silver price may reach higher levels due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance and low inventory. The price of London silver is expected to reach 130 - 145 US dollars per ounce in 2026 [6] - The price of London platinum is expected to reach 3000 - 3200 US dollars per ounce in 2026, and the price of London palladium is expected to be 2200 - 2350 US dollars per ounce [6] 3.2 Precious Metal Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against the Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au(T + D), gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [8][10][12] 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Canada if it reaches and advances a trade agreement with China. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau encouraged Canadians to buy domestic products without directly responding to the threat [18] - Japanese Prime Minister Hayasaka Sanae said the government will take necessary measures against speculative market movements. The yen's sharp depreciation near the 160 mark against the US dollar led to speculation about US - Japan joint intervention [18] - In January, the US business activity remained stable. The improvement in new orders was offset by a weak labor market and concerns about cost increases due to tariffs. The preliminary US composite PMI in January was 52.8, and the final University of Michigan consumer confidence index rose to 56.4, with the one - year inflation expectation dropping to 4.0% [18] - An Iranian senior official warned that any attack would be regarded as a full - scale war. Trump said the US has a fleet heading to Iran but hopes not to use it, and he also warned Iran not to kill protesters or restart the nuclear program [19]

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-01-27 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-01-27 今 日 发 现 贵金属市场剧烈波动，交易所出手降温 观点分享： 周一贵金属市场剧烈波动。COMEX 白银一度大涨超 16%，现货白银一度涨近 14%，双 双站上 117 美元/盎司关口，但随后大幅回落，上演"过山车"行情，COMEX 白银涨幅收窄 至 2.5%，现货白银转跌。COMEX 黄金现货黄金一度连续突破 5000 美元、5100 美元两道 关口，但随后涨幅持续回落，COMEX 黄金收涨 0.5%，现货黄金涨幅收窄至 0.5%，双双徘 徊于 5000 美元附近。现货钯金一度大涨 7%，最终收跌逾 3%。交易所出手为商品期货市场 降温。上期所上期能源发布通知，将白银、锡期货合约单日开仓交易限额分别下调至 800 手 和 200 手，对 16 名客户限制锡、白银期货开仓 1 个月并限制出金；将铜、国际铜、铝期货 合约涨跌停板幅度调整为 9%，套保、一般持仓交易保证金比例调整为 10%和 11%。广期所 也发布风险提示函，强调将严肃查处各类违规行为。 | 所 | 长 | 首 | ...

Group 1 - In 2025, global LNG trade volume reached a historical high, with optimistic market outlooks for the new year, although concerns about potential supply surplus exist [1] - The EU, the largest buyer of LNG, and the US, its biggest supplier, entered a geopolitical dispute in early 2026, leading to the suspension of a significant energy trade agreement worth $750 billion [1] - Despite the suspension of the trade agreement, the EU increased its LNG imports from the US by 25% in 2025, contributing to the record global LNG trade volume [1] Group 2 - Europe is currently the largest buyer of US LNG, with over half of US LNG exports directed to this market; in 2025, European imports from the US surged by 60% [2] - Analysts express concerns that ongoing economic weakness in Europe may dampen LNG demand, which is critical for driving market expectations [2] - Kpler initially projected that European LNG imports would reach 14.5 million tons in 2026, but geopolitical tensions may hinder this target [2] Group 3 - Kpler forecasts that global LNG new capacity will increase by 37 million tons per year in 2026, adding to the 51 million tons of new capacity that came online in 2025, which will significantly increase market supply pressure [3] - The increase in LNG capacity is expected to suppress LNG prices, potentially stimulating demand from Asian buyers, particularly in China [3] - Other challenges facing the global LNG trade include Japan's decision to restart more nuclear reactors for energy security and a decline in India's LNG imports in 2025, highlighting buyers' sensitivity to prices [3]

1月26日，金银价格继续飙升，录得新高。截至北京时间17:00，伦敦现货黄金价格最高升至5110.25美元 ／盎司，伦敦现货白银价格最高触及110.06美元／盎司。受委内瑞拉、伊朗及格陵兰岛局势的扰动，市 场避险情绪升温，将金银价格推至新高。1月27日至28日，年内首场美联储议息会议将召开。美联储大 概率"按兵不动"，"何时具备降息条件"成为市场的关注焦点。 混沌天成期货宏观分析师周蜜儿向记者表示，近期金价上扬可归因于地缘局势变动、美元指数下跌以及 美债抛售预期。她认为，当前市场定价逻辑主要涵盖三个层面：一是委内瑞拉、伊朗及格陵兰岛等地缘 争端，二是美联储新任主席人选的预期，三是美国总统特朗普对欧洲的关税威胁。在这些不确定因素的 作用下，长期货币信用逻辑不断深化，机构对黄金的配置需求预期提升，引发了新一轮上涨行情。 值得注意的是，近期美元指数持续回落，1月26日盘中最低录得96.92点。金瑞期货贵金属研究员吴梓杰 认为，美元指数回落的原因有两方面： 一方面，与风险事件下"美国例外论"的暂时降温有关。本次地缘不确定性上升时，市场资金并未像以往 一样单向涌入美元资产，反而部分转向黄金、瑞士法郎等替代性避险资产，削 ...

Core Viewpoint - The escalation of geopolitical tensions and the increased probability of a U.S. government shutdown have driven up safe-haven demand, resulting in a rise in gold prices, with COMEX gold futures reaching a peak of $5,107 before settling at $5,004.8 per ounce, marking a 0.5% increase [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold ETFs, such as Huaxia (518850), increased by 2.76%, while gold stock ETFs (159562) rose by 7.58%, and non-ferrous metal ETFs (516650) gained 5.52% [1] - The probability of a new U.S. government shutdown by the end of January has surged to nearly 80%, up from less than 10% the previous week, indicating heightened market anxiety [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Analysts from Huishang Futures attribute the surge in gold prices to several factors, including policy uncertainty during Trump's presidency, concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve amid Powell's criminal investigation, and geopolitical risks from Venezuela, Iran, and Greenland [1] - Gold prices have increased by approximately 18% this month, potentially marking the largest monthly gain in over 40 years [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Institutions remain optimistic about gold's trajectory, with Goldman Sachs raising its year-end price target for gold from $4,900 to $5,400 per ounce [1]