Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On July 30, the central bank conducted continuous net injections, leading to a balanced and slightly loose liquidity situation. The bond market showed a significant recovery, while the main indices of the convertible bond market closed down collectively, with most individual convertible bonds declining. Yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across various maturities generally increased, and yields of 10-year government bonds in major European economies also mostly rose [1]. Summaries by Directory I. Bond Market News (1) Domestic News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October to discuss the 15th Five-Year Plan. It emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, implementing proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, and taking measures in multiple aspects such as supporting innovation, consumption, and resolving local government debt risks [3]. - The CPC Central Committee held a symposium with non - Communist Party personages, with General Secretary Xi Jinping stressing the need to adhere to the general principle of making progress while maintaining stability in the second half of the year, aiming to achieve the annual economic and social development goals [4]. - The central government plans to allocate about 90 billion yuan for child - rearing subsidies this year, with the central finance bearing about 90% of the funds for the national basic standard [4][5]. - The National Development and Reform Commission solicited public opinions on guiding the layout and investment of government investment funds to prevent homogenization and crowding - out effects [5]. - The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors issued a notice to regulate the book - building issuance and underwriting in the inter - bank bond market from August 11, 2025 [6]. (2) International News - The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% for the fifth consecutive meeting. Some members advocated a 25 - basis - point rate cut, and Fed Chairman Powell dampened market expectations of a September rate cut [7]. - The U.S. Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was 3%, reversing the Q1 decline and exceeding expectations. The core PCE price index was 2.5%, down from the previous value but higher than expected. However, there are concerns about the economic recovery, such as weakening domestic demand [9]. (3) Commodities - On July 30, international crude oil futures prices continued to rise, while international natural gas prices continued to fall. WTI crude oil rose 1.36% to $70.99 per barrel, Brent crude oil rose 1.47% to $73.47 per barrel, COMEX gold futures fell 1.72% to $3266.90 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 1.89% to $3.016 per ounce [10]. II. Liquidity (1) Open Market Operations - On July 30, the central bank conducted 309 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%. With 150.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net injection was 158.5 billion yuan [12]. (2) Funding Rates - Due to continuous net injections by the central bank on July 30, the liquidity was balanced and slightly loose, and major repurchase rates continued to decline. For example, DR001 dropped 4.81bp to 1.315%, and DR007 dropped 4.67bp to 1.518% [13]. III. Bond Market Dynamics (1) Interest - Rate Bonds - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: After the Political Bureau meeting on July 30, the bond market recovered significantly. By 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250011 dropped 2.75bp to 1.7200%, and the yield of the 10 - year China Development Bank bond active bond 250210 dropped 3.25bp to 1.8040% [16]. - **Bond Tendering Results**: Details of the tendering results of several agricultural bonds, including the issuance scale, winning yields, and multiples, were provided [17]. (2) Credit Bonds - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies**: On July 30, the trading price of one industrial bond, "H0 Yangcheng 04", deviated by more than 10%, rising over 747% [17]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Multiple credit - related events occurred, such as asset freezes of some companies, changes in credit ratings, and cancellations of bond issuances [18]. (3) Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: On July 30, the A - share market weakened in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.17%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell 0.77% and 1.62% respectively. The main indices of the convertible bond market closed down collectively, and most individual convertible bonds declined [20]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: Companies such as Hang Lung Properties reported their performance, and there were announcements regarding bond payments, revisions of conversion prices, and decisions on early redemptions [23][24][25]. (4) Overseas Bond Markets - **U.S. Bond Market**: On July 30, yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across various maturities generally increased. The 2 - year U.S. Treasury bond yield rose 8bp to 3.94%, and the 10 - year yield rose 4bp to 4.38%. The yield spreads between 2 - year and 10 - year, and 5 - year and 30 - year U.S. Treasury bonds narrowed [26][27]. - **European Bond Market**: On July 30, the 10 - year UK government bond yield dropped 4bp, while yields of 10 - year government bonds in other major European economies mostly rose [29]. - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese - Issued Dollar Bonds**: The daily price changes of Chinese - issued dollar bonds as of July 30 were presented, including the price changes, credit entities, bond codes, and other information of top - rising and top - falling bonds [31].

据中国网财经中心消息，美联储最新议息决议维持联邦基金利率目标区间在 4.25%-4.5% 不变 。此消息一 出，金融市场震荡，各界反应强烈，尤其是特朗普，对这一结果极为不满。 自特朗普上台以来，一直积极推行大规模关税政策，试图以此重振美国经济，特别是制造业与贸易领域。 更糟糕的是，5 月新增就业人数从最初公布的 14.4 万修正为 1.9 万，6 月的数据从 14.7 万修正为 1.4 万。 这表明美国就业市场明显降温，经济增长动力不足。在这种情况下，特朗普要求降息似乎有其合理性。 特朗普（资料图） 然而，鲍威尔在 7 月 30 日的记者会上明确表示，实施适度约束性的货币政策看起来是合适的。他还提 到，美联储尚未就 9 月份货币政策作出决定，这取决于下一次议息会议前公布的就业和通胀等数据。 特朗普（资料图） 不过，这一政策的实施效果却不尽如人意，美国经济面临着更为严峻的价格压力与增长放缓风险。在这样 的背景下，特朗普多次公开炮轰美联储主席鲍威尔，强烈要求降息，期望借此刺激经济增长。 当地时间 24 日，特朗普甚至罕见地造访美联储，再次向鲍威尔施压。在视察翻新工程现场时，特朗普与 鲍威尔就工程成本问题产生争执， ...

Group 1: Economic Overview - The global economy in 2025 is at a crossroads, influenced by trade protectionism and geopolitical tensions, particularly the "America First" policy of the Trump administration [1] - China's economy reported a stable GDP growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, but faces challenges such as low prices and insufficient domestic demand [1][2] Group 2: Structural Analysis of Economic Growth - The GDP growth of 5.3% reflects a stable overall trend, but there is significant structural differentiation, with the secondary industry declining due to weak construction and real estate investment [2] - Exports showed unexpected resilience, partly due to progress in US-China tariff negotiations, while fixed asset investment only grew by 2.8%, contributing to economic slowdown in the second quarter [2][3] Group 3: Domestic Demand Challenges - The decline in retail sales and fixed asset investment in June highlights insufficient domestic demand, with consumer spending affected by the timing of promotional events and slow growth in income [3] - The manufacturing sector is facing challenges, with a low capacity utilization rate of 74.3% in the second quarter, indicating weak corporate expectations [3] Group 4: External Challenges and Export Outlook - Trump's tariff policy is reshaping the global industrial system, with potential trade agreements among major economies but high uncertainty due to fluctuating tariffs [4] - The export growth rate is expected to slow in the second half of the year, as US tariffs on China remain significantly higher than before Trump's presidency, leading to pressure on exports [4] Group 5: Policy Focus Areas - The policy focus will be on effectively implementing existing policies while preparing for potential new policies, particularly in consumer spending and investment [5] - Specific measures include increasing income for low- and middle-income groups, promoting service consumption, and stabilizing real estate through financial support [5][6] Group 6: Reform and Future Planning - The government aims to deepen reforms and open up the economy, with a focus on implementing significant measures and enhancing the unified national market [6] - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to emphasize high-quality development and resilience in supply chains, pushing for upgrades in manufacturing towards high-end, intelligent, and green production [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Nikkei 225 index experienced a significant drop of over 900 points, indicating heightened market volatility and a shift towards risk aversion due to disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data, which suggests a weakening economic growth momentum [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - The Nikkei 225 index fell below the 40,000 mark, with approximately 90% of stocks on the Tokyo Stock Exchange declining, reflecting a broad sell-off in the market [1] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data and the announcement of a Federal Reserve board member's resignation contributed to a noticeable appreciation of the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Outlook - Market consensus indicates that a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is almost certain, with attention now shifting to the pace of potential cuts, specifically whether it will be a 25 or 50 basis point reduction, and whether further cuts will occur in October [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. government has postponed the implementation date of "reciprocal tariffs" to August 7, allowing more time for technical preparations by U.S. Customs and Border Protection [1] - The new tariffs will range from 15% to 41% on goods from 69 trade partners, with a 10% import tax on all other countries not on the list [1] - Recent agreements have been reached with several countries, including Japan and South Korea, but many lack formal documentation, raising concerns about the credibility of these agreements [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S.-Japan trade agreement includes a significant investment clause, with Japan committing to a $550 billion investment and loan plan, which is over 10% of Japan's GDP [5] - Japan's automotive industry, which employs over 5 million people, is heavily impacted by these trade negotiations, as automotive exports to the U.S. account for over one-third of Japan's total exports [6] - The agreement also includes Japan's commitment to purchase 100 Boeing aircraft and increase defense spending with the U.S. [7] Group 3 - The U.S.-Korea agreement will impose a uniform 15% import tariff on Korean goods while exempting U.S. exports to Korea from tariffs [13] - The deal includes a $350 billion investment commitment from Korea for U.S.-led projects and a promise to purchase $100 billion worth of U.S. liquefied natural gas [15] - Similar to the U.S.-Japan agreement, the U.S.-Korea deal does not address tariffs on key industrial products like steel and aluminum, leaving the Korean steel industry in a precarious position [14] Group 4 - Taiwan is seen as a "loser" in the tariff adjustments, facing a 20% tariff on its exports to the U.S., which is higher than the rates for Japan and Korea [17] - The EU and U.S. reached a tariff agreement that includes a 15% baseline tariff on most EU goods, while maintaining a 50% tariff on steel exports [19] - The EU has committed to purchasing $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products over three years and investing $600 billion in the U.S. [20] Group 5 - Southeast Asian countries are increasingly reliant on the U.S. market, with Vietnam being the first to reach a tariff agreement, which includes a 20% tariff on most goods [26][27] - Indonesia has agreed to a 19% tariff on its exports to the U.S. while committing to purchase $15 billion in U.S. energy products [29] - The U.S. is applying pressure on Southeast Asian nations, which are seen as critical in the trade dynamics with China [32][33] Group 6 - The U.S. is experiencing a rise in its overall tariff levels, with the average tariff rate exceeding 16%, the highest since the 1930s [40] - Despite concerns about the economic impact of high tariffs, recent economic data shows strong GDP growth and resilient consumer spending in the U.S. [48][49] - Analysts suggest that the apparent economic strength may be influenced by companies stockpiling goods to avoid tariffs, leading to a temporary boost in economic indicators [50]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on people's livelihoods as a key point for economic work in the second half of the year, highlighting the need for a balanced approach to development and social welfare [1] Group 1: Economic Development and Livelihood - Improving living standards is directly linked to economic development, with significant investment opportunities in the construction of quality housing, communities, and urban areas [1] - The aging population is creating a trillion-yuan level consumer market, shifting from basic needs to enhancing quality of life for the elderly [1] Group 2: Investment in People - Recent policies such as childcare subsidies and the gradual implementation of free preschool education aim to reduce family childcare costs, indicating a shift towards investing in human capital [1] - Allocating more resources to social welfare initiatives will drive sustained economic growth [1] Group 3: High-Quality Development - The relationship between high-quality development and high-quality living standards is emphasized, suggesting that they can mutually promote and interact positively [1] - The article concludes with a positive outlook on China's economic potential and growth momentum [1]

Core Viewpoint - Chile's economy has emerged from the post-pandemic adjustment period and is showing stable growth, with expectations of an annual growth rate approaching 3% by June 2025, driven significantly by non-mining activities [1] Economic Growth - The monthly economic activity index (Imacec) for June is expected to continue its growth trend, contributing to the overall positive economic outlook [1] - The economic growth rate over the past 20 months has exceeded the average growth rate of the seven years prior to the pandemic [1] - Growth momentum is anticipated to accelerate starting from the third quarter of 2024 [1] Mining Sector - The exemption of tariffs on Chilean copper by the United States is viewed as a significant positive development for the mining sector [1] - Ongoing negotiations between the two countries will be crucial, and potential policy changes should be monitored closely [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jordan's economy has shown a growth rate of 2.7% in both the last quarter of the previous year and the first quarter of this year, with expectations to maintain this growth rate throughout the year [1] Economic Performance - Inflation rate in Jordan for the first half of the year is recorded at 2% [1] - Tourism revenue has reached $3.7 billion [1] - Foreign exchange reserves stand at $22 billion, sufficient to cover 8.4 months of import needs [1] - Bank deposits in May amounted to 477 billion Jordanian Dinars [1] Economic Vision Progress - The Central Bank of Jordan has completed 90 out of 94 initiatives outlined in the 2023-2025 economic vision, with the remaining initiatives progressing smoothly [1]

美联储日前宣布，7月议息会议决定维持联邦基准利率不变。而此次会议中有两位美联储理事提出不同意见，受到外界广泛关注。 《纽约时报》网站报道截图 另有数据显示，美国2025年二季度经济按年率计算增长3%。分析指出，这份成绩单背后却"暗藏玄机"。无论是美联储内部的分歧，还是"表面光鲜"的经济 数据都与美国的关税政策脱不了干系。 美国消费者新闻与商业频道报道截图 "美联储不会因特朗普施压而降息" 此次美联储议息会议之所以备受关注，因为美国总统特朗普于7月24日罕见造访美联储总部，这是近20年来美国现任总统首次正式访问美联储。 《金融时报》称其为"极不寻常"的举动。此次访问被外界视为特朗普向美联储主席鲍威尔施压降息的重要信号。 面对巨大压力，鲍威尔7月31日在议息会议后的记者会上坚称，在联邦公开市场委员会绝大多数成员看来，当前的美联储的利率政策"没有抑制美国经济增 长"，适度限制性的货币政策在当前是"适当的"。 《金融时报》网站报道截图 《华尔街日报》报道称，由于特朗普的关税政策有可能在拖慢经济发展的同时推高物价。在此背景下，是支撑经济增长，还是遏制通货膨胀，这让美联储难 下判断。 《华尔街日报》网站报道截图 美国消费 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Monthly Report (July 2025) [2] - Author: Fan Ling - Report Date: August 1, 2025 - Institution: AVIC Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market is influenced by multiple factors including macro - economic conditions, supply - demand dynamics of raw materials and finished products, and downstream consumption trends. The overall market shows a complex and volatile situation. In the short - term, the aluminum price may fluctuate within a certain range, with support at 20,000 yuan/ton. Long - term trends depend on the implementation of policies, the recovery of downstream consumption, and the balance of supply and demand [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In July, the alumina futures price fluctuated greatly, showing a trend of rising first and then falling, with a maximum of 3,577 yuan/ton and a monthly increase of 7.94%. The electrolytic aluminum futures also showed a similar trend but with a smaller increase, operating in the range of 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton [6][7]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspects - **Tariff Situation**: China and the US extended the tariff for 90 days, and short - term tariff disturbances subsided. The US announced a new version of "reciprocal tariffs" with a base rate of 10%, and most countries' rates are within 20% [9][10]. - **US Economic Data**: US economic and employment data are strong, with inflation still at risk of rising. The strong economic fundamentals make the mutual exclusivity of a strong economy and interest rate cuts gradually apparent, and the expectation of a September interest rate cut may be further reduced [13][14]. - **Domestic Economy**: The domestic economy is generally stable, and there is an expectation for the accelerated implementation of stable - growth policies. The manufacturing PMI and GDP growth rate show certain trends, and the government has introduced a series of policies to promote economic development [17]. 3.3 Supply - Side Analysis - **Bauxite Supply**: Domestic bauxite supply is disturbed but relatively loose. In Guinea, although some mines resumed production, the rainy season affected the shipment volume in July. However, the large increase in imports in the first half of the year and high available inventory, along with the resumption of production in previously shut - down mines, make the price of imported bauxite expected to have limited rebound [20][24]. - **Alumina Supply**: The expectation of alumina supply surplus remains unchanged. As of late July, the national alumina production capacity and operating capacity increased, and the operating capacity reached a new high for the year. The increase in production capacity is mainly due to the expansion of a medium - sized alumina enterprise in Shandong. In the future, with the commissioning of alumina production capacity in Indonesia and the possible opening of the import window, the import volume of alumina may increase [25][27]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Supply**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum continues to maintain high profits. The utilization rate of electrolytic aluminum production capacity is significantly higher than that of upstream alumina and downstream aluminum products industries, and the supply is rigid. The utilization rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has exceeded 95%, and new production capacity is limited in the future due to the capacity ceiling. The production of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased in the first half of the year, and some capacity replacement projects were put into operation in July [32][36]. - **Overseas Electrolytic Aluminum Supply**: The overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity has no significant change recently. The 50 - ton electrolytic aluminum project of PT KALIMANTAN in Indonesia will be put into production in stages, with 10 tons expected to be put into production in 2025 and full production in 2027. If all overseas production capacity is put into operation as scheduled, the production growth rate is expected to reach 3% - 5% in 2026 - 2027 [38][39]. 3.4 Demand - Side Analysis - **Downstream Processing**: The average operating rate of downstream processing enterprises decreased slightly. Different sectors have different trends. For example, the aluminum foil sector has a production - reduction expectation in August, and the building materials sector continues to be in the off - season. The aluminum cable sector is expected to recover in the second half of August, while the terminal consumption of primary and secondary aluminum alloy sectors is difficult to improve significantly in August [41][42]. - **Real Estate Demand**: The demand for aluminum in the real estate industry is still weak. The new construction area, completion area, and investment in real estate development all decreased year - on - year in the first half of the year, and the real estate sector is still in the process of destocking [46][48]. - **Automobile Industry Demand**: The use of aluminum in the automobile industry will maintain a high - growth trend. In the first half of the year, the production and sales of automobiles and new - energy vehicles increased year - on - year. Although the new - energy vehicle industry faces some growth - slowdown pressure, multiple favorable factors in the second half of the year will help drive automobile consumption growth, which will also drive the demand for aluminum [49][51]. - **Home Appliance Industry Demand**: The production schedule of home appliances is still decreasing year - on - year, but the decline in August is expected to narrow. The production schedule of air - conditioners in August decreased compared with the same period last year, but the decline rate has converged. High - temperature weather and replacement subsidies have promoted the sales of air - conditioners and reduced the inventory [52][54]. 3.5 Inventory Analysis - **Exchange Inventories**: The inventories of the London Metal Exchange (LME) and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) increased. The LME aluminum inventory reached a new high in more than three and a half months, and the SHFE aluminum inventory has increased for four consecutive weeks [55][56]. - **Aluminum Ingot Inventories**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to accumulate, but the increase did not exceed the seasonal level, and the current inventory level is still relatively low, which still supports the price. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation rhythm in August [58][59]. 3.6 Other Market Features - **Scrap Aluminum Market**: The scrap aluminum procurement market is tight, and the price is firm. The reasons include limited imports, limited domestic scrap aluminum increment but increasing demand, and the procurement preference of large enterprises for large - scale ticket - issuing recyclers [61][62]. - **Price Difference between Electrolytic Aluminum and Aluminum Alloy**: The price difference between domestic electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy is positive and at a relatively high level, mainly because the downstream demand is weak in the traditional off - season, while the accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is relatively slow and that of domestic aluminum alloy social inventory is relatively fast [64][65].