1. Report Industry Investment Rating | Asset Category | Rating | | --- | --- | | Gold | Bearish | | US Dollar | Bullish | | US Stocks | Sideways | | A-Shares | Sideways | | Treasury Bonds | Sideways | [24] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks continue to ferment, and the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair has triggered significant market volatility. The short-term trend of various assets will be affected by factors such as monetary policy expectations, economic data, and market sentiment. [5][25] - The US economy maintains resilience, but there are still uncertainties in inflation and employment. The domestic economic recovery faces challenges, and the real estate market remains weak. [68][94] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Context Tracking - Geopolitical risks continue to ferment, with the US's military threats against Iran and sanctions on Cuba potentially disturbing the market. [5] - The Fed's January interest rate meeting kept rates unchanged, but short-term rate cut willingness has declined. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair has led to significant market fluctuations. [5] - China's January PMI weakened, indicating that the domestic economic recovery is still full of twists and turns. The bond market remains in a sideways trend, and A-shares face short-term回调 pressure. [5] 3.2 Global Asset Class Performance Overview 3.2.1 Equity Markets - Global stock markets had mixed performance this week. Developed markets such as the S&P 500 and the Nikkei 225 had different trends, while emerging markets like the Shanghai Composite Index and the Hang Seng Index also showed varying performances. [7][8] - MSCI indices showed differentiation, with emerging markets outperforming developed and frontier markets, mainly driven by the weakening US dollar. [8] 3.2.2 Currency Markets - The US dollar index rebounded from a low, and the RMB exchange rate index slightly depreciated, while the RMB continued to appreciate against the US dollar. Emerging market currencies showed differentiation, and developed country currencies generally appreciated. [9] 3.2.3 Bond Markets - Global major developed country 10-year government bond yields fluctuated, mainly affected by concerns about Japan's aggressive fiscal policy. Emerging market country government bond yields also showed different trends. [15] 3.2.4 Commodity Markets - The global commodity market rose and then fell this week, with significant increases in energy prices and sharp corrections in precious metals. The domestic commodity market mostly recorded gains. [22] 3.3 Weekly Outlook for Asset Classes 3.3.1 Precious Metals - Gold is expected to be weak in the short term due to factors such as the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair and the decline in short-term rate cut expectations. Silver is also expected to have further downward space. [24][25] 3.3.2 US Stocks - US stocks are expected to remain in a high-level sideways trend in the short term, with increased volatility. The market's risk appetite will be affected by factors such as corporate earnings and commodity market fluctuations. [24][42] 3.3.3 A-Shares - A-shares are expected to experience short-term corrections and will depend on the strength of the economy and policies in the medium term. The long-term bull market requires fundamental support. [24][52] 3.3.4 Treasury Bonds - Treasury bonds are expected to remain in a sideways trend, with limited upward space due to potential negative factors in the future. [24][58] 3.4 Global Macroeconomic Data Tracking 3.4.1 Overseas High-Frequency Economic Data - The US economy maintains resilience, with the GDPNow model estimating a Q4 growth rate of 5.4% and the Redbook retail sales year-on-year growth rate at 7.1%. [68] - The US inflation expectation has rebounded, but short-term inflation concerns have not significantly increased. The employment market remains resilient, with the number of continued and initial jobless claims remaining stable. [73] - The Fed's January interest rate meeting paused rate cuts, and the market's rate cut expectations have changed little. It is expected that there will be only 1 - 2 rate cuts in 2026, more likely in the second half of the year. [80] 3.4.2 Domestic High-Frequency Economic Data - The real estate market remains weak, with the secondary housing market showing signs of volume increase but still not exceeding seasonal levels. [90] - The economic data generally shows a pattern of weakening总量, strong supply and weak demand in terms of structure, and weaker domestic demand than external demand. [94] - The December financial data shows that the private sector's willingness to borrow is low, but there are also some positive changes in corporate financing demand. [99] - The December PPI and CPI continued to recover, and inflation is expected to rise in the future. [106] - The December import and export year-on-year growth rates exceeded expectations, and both exports and imports are expected to continue to improve in the future. [112]

图为截至1月30日三大人民币汇率指数。来源：中国外汇交易中心 国际方面：特朗普正式提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什接替鲍威尔出任下任美联储主席。该提名需参议院批准，但民主党领袖舒默与共 和党参议员蒂利斯已明确表示，除非撤销对鲍威尔的调查，否则将联手阻止沃什上任。 此外，美联储将基准利率维持在3.50%-3.75%不变，结束自去年9月以来的连续三次降息。尽管符合市场预期，但政策声明透露出内 部意见分化：理事米兰和沃勒投下反对票，主张降息25个基点。 新华财经北京2月2日电中国外汇交易中心最新计算的2026年1月30日CFETS人民币汇率指数为96.99，按周跌1.25%；BIS货币篮子人民 币汇率指数报104.06，按周跌1.25%；SDR货币篮子人民币汇率指数报92.52，按周跌0.77%。 中国人民银行副行长邹澜在第19届亚洲金融论坛上表示，中国人民银行持续推进内地与香港金融市场互联互通机制，全面覆盖债 券、股票、货币衍生品、黄金等多个子市场，有效支持全球投资者通过香港开展人民币投融资活动。邹澜表示，香港已成为全球最 大、最具影响力的人民币离岸业务枢纽。 近日，中国人民银行与斯里兰卡央行签署人民币清算安排合作备忘 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently stable with major currency pairs showing little movement, while key economic data and events are expected to influence market dynamics in the near term [1][2]. Economic Data Summary - Key economic data to be released includes: - China's January RatingDog Manufacturing PMI - UK's January Nationwide House Price Index month-on-month - Switzerland's December actual retail sales year-on-year - Eurozone and major economies' January Manufacturing PMI final values, including France, Germany, the UK, and the Eurozone - US's January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final value and January ISM Manufacturing PMI [1][7]. Currency Pair Analysis - **US Dollar Index (DXY)**: Currently in a consolidation phase with balanced bullish and bearish forces, showing a price near the middle Bollinger Band [3]. - **GBP/USD**: Slight increase observed, trading within a narrow range, with potential resistance at 1.3710 [3]. - **EUR/USD**: Continued upward trend, reaching levels not seen since 2021, but showing signs of overbought conditions [4]. - **USD/JPY**: Experiencing a rebound from recent lows, but facing limitations due to interest rate differentials and potential interventions [4]. Geopolitical and Market Events - Notable geopolitical events include: - US-Iran negotiations potentially taking place in Turkey - Statements from the US House Speaker regarding confidence in ending parts of the government shutdown - Upcoming trilateral talks involving Ukraine, the US, and Russia [5][6][7].

| | 20260202申万期货品种策略日报-双焦(JI&J) | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 申银万国期货研究所 沈击奉 (从业编号F03148029 交易咨询号Z0022842) | | | | | | | | | shenyb@sywggh.com.cn 021-50582113 | | | | | | | | | IL I | | | | | | | | | 1月 5月 9月 1月 5月 9 H | | | | | | | | | 前1日收盘价 1405.5 1232.5 1874. 0 1787.0 | | 1155. 5 | | | 1721.5 | | | | 前2日收盘价 1419.5 | | 1165.0 | 1242.5 | 1876.5 | 1723.0 | 1791.5 | | EH | 煮蛋 -14.0 | | -9.5 | -10.0 | -2.5 | -1.5 | -4.5 | | स्त | 楽跌幅 -0. 99% | | -0. 82% | -0. 80% | -0.13% ...

"鹰派惊喜"：高盛对沃什任命影响的首次评估 特朗普总统已宣布提名凯文・沃什为美联储主席，此前隔夜有报道称提名即将出炉。 提名敲定 预测市场迅速大幅波动，将沃什列为最热门的提名人选（在相关头条实际发布前就已开始上涨）。 隔夜头条发布后，美元整体温和走强，美国国债收益率曲线出现小幅熊陡，美股则小幅下跌。 "鹰派惊喜"：高盛对沃什任命影响的首次评估 特朗普总统已宣布提名凯文・沃什为美联储主席，此前隔夜有报道称提名即将出炉。 提名敲定 预测市场迅速大幅波动，将沃什列为最热门的提名人选（在相关头条实际发布前就已开始上涨）。 隔夜头条发布后，美元整体温和走强，美国国债收益率曲线出现小幅熊陡，美股则小幅下跌。 为何是沃什？ 高盛萨赫斯 Delta One 交易主管 Rich Privotsky从长期视角解读了 "为何是沃什"： 这在很大程度上平息了关于美联储独立性的质疑，从长期来看，这或许是正确的基调。 你必须承认，美国体系正从美元体系向沃什倾斜，而如果没有一个可信的中央银行，最终将导致体系破裂。 一种解释是…… 这与 20 世纪 70 年代沃尔克并非卡特的首选、而是市场的选择如出一辙。 市场影响解读 高盛顶级策略师 St ...

Group 1 - The central bank emphasizes a moderately loose monetary policy for 2026, indicating potential for reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to support financing costs and market risk appetite [2] - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments encourage mergers and acquisitions in the pharmaceutical retail sector, promoting integration between wholesale and retail, which may benefit leading companies through economies of scale [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation has prohibited concentration among public utility operators, signaling stricter antitrust enforcement in essential services, which may slow down M&A activity in this sector [2] Group 2 - Gold prices have surged past $4,900, driven by central bank purchases and geopolitical uncertainties, boosting demand for precious metals as a hedge against inflation [3] - The A-share market has shown a mixed performance, with the precious metals sector leading gains, while other sectors like battery and commercial aerospace have seen declines [5] - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to stimulate tourism, with a report indicating a significant increase in travel bookings, reflecting a trend towards more diverse travel experiences [14][17] Group 3 - AWS and Google Cloud have initiated price increases for their cloud services, indicating rising demand for computing power, particularly in AI infrastructure [20] - The solid-state battery industry is advancing, with several companies announcing strategic partnerships and production plans, suggesting a growing focus on innovative battery technologies [24] - The domestic new energy vehicle market has shown strong growth, with significant year-on-year increases in sales and penetration rates, indicating a robust demand for electric vehicles [29]

贵金属价格高位"跳水"后反弹乏力。 国泰基金认为短期黄金或存在反弹窗口。首先，当前贵金属隐含波动率已升至极端水平，参考2020年3月末黄金大幅回撤后波动率冲高回落的历史 经验，短期降波修复行情值得期待。其次，市场对"降息+缩表"的定价可能过于抢跑。上周五黄金回调的直接催化是沃什获提名，市场预期其将推 行"降息+缩表"的保守主义货币政策从而推动美元走强，但本轮回调更多反映的是前期涨幅过大导致多头结构脆弱、对利空催化敏感度较高，而非 基本面的根本性转向——美债市场对该消息反应平淡、基本平收即为佐证。 从降息预期来看，国泰基金表示，据CME FedWatch数据，新主席人选公布前后，市场对年内首次降息时点的预期均稳定在6月，全年降息两次的 判断亦未改变；从缩表预期来看，本周FOMC会议延续了自去年12月以来的扩表操作，规模维持在每月400亿美元，市场对"缩表"的预期可能过于 超前，短期现实仍是联储扩表。此外，沃什的政策倾向主要源于其历史表态，但作为特朗普认可的人选，其立场是否会因政治考量而调整仍存不 确定性。 北京时间周一早盘，现货黄金（伦敦金现）失守4700美元/盎司关口，盘中跌逾6%；伦敦银现盘中大跌超7%。低 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold and precious metals market experienced significant volatility in January 2026, with gold prices dropping sharply from a historical high of $5,596 per ounce to $4,686 per ounce, a decline of nearly 10% [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The sharp decline in gold prices was primarily driven by profit-taking among investors after a previous rise due to inflation and a weaker dollar [1]. - Silver experienced extreme volatility, with a single-day drop of nearly 30%, marking the largest single-day decline since 1982 [1]. - Platinum and palladium also faced substantial corrections during this period [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The announcement of Kevin Walsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair led to expectations of a more hawkish monetary policy, which contributed to the strengthening of the dollar and put pressure on gold prices [1]. - Investor sentiment shifts, policy expectation changes, and speculative behavior in the options market, as noted in a Goldman Sachs report, exacerbated the volatility in gold prices [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the short-term price correction, analysts remain optimistic about gold, predicting that factors such as potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and global economic pressures could drive prices higher in 2026 [3]. - Geopolitical risks and increasing U.S. debt are expected to support gold demand, providing a cushion for prices [3]. - Analysts forecast that gold prices may face further downward pressure, with year-end predictions ranging between $4,000 and $5,000 per ounce, and in extreme cases, potentially dropping to $3,500 [3]. Group 4: Investment Considerations - The volatility in gold prices highlights that gold is not just a safe-haven asset; it also requires investors to be cautious of its dual-edged sword effect [3]. - Short-term fluctuations may cause unease among investors, but gold continues to hold strong long-term appeal, especially in times of increased uncertainty [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sharp decline in precious metals suppresses the atmosphere of non - ferrous metals, and short - term panic still has a suppressing effect. However, in the long run, the outlook is not pessimistic. Copper prices are expected to gradually stabilize, aluminum prices may stabilize under certain conditions, and different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends [3][5][6]. - The market may return to real - world trading. Tin prices may face a significant correction risk in the short term, nickel prices have a large risk of decline, and lithium prices face pressure but may have short - term support at the bottom [15][17][19]. - The stainless steel price has strong support at the bottom, and a long - position layout can be considered at around 14,000 yuan/ton [25]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: On Friday, LME copper 3M closed down 4.63% to $13,070/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 103,190 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 1,100 to 174,975 tons, and the domestic Shanghai Futures Exchange weekly inventory increased by 0.7 to 233,000 tons [2]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: The supply of copper mines remains tight, the supply of refined copper in China maintains high growth, and the downstream consumption willingness recovers after the copper price drops. The expected surplus is alleviated, and copper prices are expected to gradually stabilize. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract today is 102,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME copper 3M is $12,600 - $13,500/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: On Friday, LME aluminum closed down 3.03% to $3,135/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,600 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 63,000 to 742,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 2,000 to 145,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased slightly [4]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Domestic inventories are accumulating, but it does not constitute a major negative for prices. LME aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, providing support for aluminum prices. If the volatility of precious metals decreases and domestic inventories perform better than the seasonal average, aluminum prices are expected to stabilize. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract today is 24,300 - 25,000 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME aluminum 3M is $3,080 - $3,180/ton [5][6]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: On Friday, the price of cast aluminum alloy dropped sharply. The main AD2603 contract closed down 4.32% to 22,820 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position increased to 23,900 lots, and the trading volume was 45,500 lots. The warehouse receipts decreased by 400 to 68,200 tons [8]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Although the demand is relatively average, in the context of continuous supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply, the price has short - term support [8]. Lead - **Market Information**: Last Friday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 1.69% to 16,918 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S fell by $42 to $2,004/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,675 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 50 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 29,400 tons [10]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of lead ore has increased, the smelting profit is supported by high - priced silver, the TC is at a low level, the primary lead production rate remains relatively high, and the primary lead ingot inventory is accumulating. The inventory of recycled waste has increased, the recycled smelting profit has slightly declined, but the recycled lead production rate has increased marginally. The downstream battery enterprise production rate has slightly declined. The industry situation is weak. Pay attention to the impact of the ISM manufacturing PMI data on February 2 on the sector sentiment [11][12]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Last Friday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.46% to 25,860 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S fell by $62.5 to $3,399/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 25,790 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc ingot futures inventory was 28,500 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 109,800 tons [13]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: In the industrial sector, the zinc ore raw material inventory has increased, the decline rate of zinc ore has slowed down. The LME zinc ingot inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the LME zinc 3 - 15 month spread has increased. The overseas natural gas price has increased, causing concerns about the cost of European smelting enterprises. The zinc price is still in the process of following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute increase. Pay attention to the impact of the ISM manufacturing PMI data on February 2 on the sector sentiment [13]. Tin - **Market Information**: On January 30, the tin price冲高回落, and the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 409,000 yuan/ton, down 8.32% from the previous day. The SHFE inventory increased by 30 to 8,524 tons, and the LME inventory remained unchanged at 7,095 tons [14]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: In the context of the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and the recent steady increase in inventory, it is expected that the tin price may have a large correction risk in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 370,000 - 430,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for overseas LME tin is $47,000 - $51,000/ton [15]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On January 30, the nickel price dropped significantly, and the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 140,000 yuan/ton, down 5.07% from the previous day. The spot market premiums remained stable. The nickel ore price remained stable, and the nickel iron price fluctuated upward [16]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: The nickel price has a large risk of decline in the short term. The market may return to real - world trading, and the high premium of refined nickel over nickel iron and the significant increase in domestic nickel inventory put pressure on the nickel price. It is recommended to sell short on rallies. The short - term reference operating range for Shanghai nickel is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for LME nickel 3M is $16,000 - $18,000/ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: Last Friday, the Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed at 155,107 yuan, down 5.71% from the previous working day and 11.28% for the week. The LC2605 contract closed at 148,200 yuan, down 10.08% from the previous day's closing price and 18.36% for the week [18][19]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Last week, the bullish sentiment cooled down, and the stop - profit orders increased significantly, causing the lithium price to decline rapidly. The total position of lithium carbonate contracts decreased by 15.9% for the week. Although the fundamentals of lithium carbonate are expected to improve, the sustainability of supply - side contraction is uncertain, and there is significant pressure on the upside of the lithium price. In the context of low downstream inventories, there may be short - term support at the bottom. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. The reference operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate main contract is 136,000 - 158,000 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On January 30, 2026, the alumina index fell 1.64% to 2,768 yuan/ton, and the unilateral trading total position decreased by 32,900 to 613,500 lots. The Shandong spot price was 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 213 yuan/ton to the main contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price was $304/ton, and the import profit and loss was - 79 yuan/ton. The Friday futures warehouse receipts were 171,100 tons, an increase of 9,600 tons from the previous day [21]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: After the rainy season, the shipments from Guinea are gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine is resuming production. The ore price is expected to decline oscillatingly. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The market has increased expectations for the implementation of supply - contraction policies, but there are still three difficulties for continuous rebound. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,700 - 2,950 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Friday at 15:00, the stainless steel main contract closed at 14,585 yuan/ton, up 0.83% (+120). The unilateral position was 293,500 lots, a decrease of 1,534 lots from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets changed slightly. The raw material prices were relatively stable, and the futures inventory increased by 4,641 to 43,579 tons. The social inventory decreased to 904,500 tons, a 2.91% increase month - on - month, and the 300 - series inventory was 616,700 tons, a 2.86% increase month - on - month [24]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Last week, the market volatility increased significantly. The sharp decline in precious metal prices on Friday dragged down the non - ferrous metal sector, and the market sentiment was affected. The downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high, and the inventory turnover speed slowed down. The supply side has significantly contracted. The core upward logic has not changed, and the price has strong support at the bottom. It is recommended to lightly lay out long positions at around 14,000 yuan/ton. The reference range for the main contract is 13,800 - 14,700 yuan/ton [25].

报告要点： 上周五，凯文沃什被特朗普宣布提名为新任美联储主席。在新任联储主席候选人（包括哈 塞特、沃勒、里德尔）中，沃什的货币政策表态偏鹰派，且反对美联储无序扩张资产负债表透 支信用。消息公布后，市场对于美元信用受挫和联储后续大幅降息的预期有所缓和，金银价格 出现大幅下跌。 专题报告 2026-02-02 蒋文斌 宏观金融组 从业资格号：F3048844 交易咨询号：Z0017196 0755-23375128 jiangwb@wkqh.cn 贵金属：沃什被提名为联储主席，金银价格受挫 贵金属研究 一、凯文沃什被提名为联储主席令金银价格重挫 特朗普宣布"温和鹰派"凯文沃什为新任美联储主席提名人选，宽松货币政策预期受到 重挫，是金银价格在周五出现大幅下跌的主要原因：特朗普于周五宣布正式提名前美联储理事 凯文沃什为新任联储主席。在沃什前一联储理事任期中，他主张减少货币政策对于市场的干预， 呈现温和偏鹰派的表态。在利率和资产负债表操作方面，沃什反对进行长期的量化宽松和零利 率政策，并批评美联储的资产负债表扩张大幅透支央行信用。在联储政策目标方面，他强调要 坚守 2%的通胀目标。而在联储的职能权限方面，他批评美联储" ...