1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Macroscopically, tariff disturbances are weakening, and there are expectations of a loose monetary policy. Industrially, iron ore shipments are decreasing, molten iron production is stagnant, port congestion volumes are declining, ports continue the trend of inventory accumulation, and spot resources are relatively abundant. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading on the I2605 contract in the range of 810 - 770 yuan, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [8]. - With stagnant molten iron production, continuous inventory accumulation at ports, and relatively abundant spot resources, the futures price may fluctuate weakly. It is suggested to consider buying out - of - the - money put options on the I2605 contract after a rebound [55]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights 3.1.1 Price - As of the close on January 23, the futures price of the iron ore main contract was 795 (-17) yuan/ton, and the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 869 (+0) yuan/dry ton [6]. 3.1.2 Shipment - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 251,100 tons week - on - week. From January 12 to January 18, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 29.298 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 251,100 tons. The total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 22.466 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 359,800 tons [5][6]. 3.1.3 Arrival - The arrival volume at 47 ports decreased by 117,300 tons. From January 12 to January 18, 2026, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 28.977 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117,300 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 26.597 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.607 million tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 14.429 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,300 tons [6]. 3.1.4 Demand - The molten iron production increased by 90 tons. The daily average molten iron production was 2.281 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 90 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.65 million tons [6]. 3.1.5 Inventory - The port inventory increased by 207,830 tons. As of January 23, 2026, the imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 174.9653 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 207,830 tons and a year - on - year increase of 18.9692 million tons. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 93.8882 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 126,600 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 14.575 million tons [6]. 3.1.6 Profitability - The profitability rate of steel mills was 40.69%, a week - on - week increase of 0.86 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.23 percentage points [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price - This week, the center of gravity of the I2605 contract moved down. The price of the I2605 contract was weaker than that of the I2609 contract. On the 23rd, the price difference was 17.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/ton [14]. 3.2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions - On January 23, the number of iron ore warehouse receipts at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 1,100, a week - on - week decrease of 400. On January 23, the net position of the top 20 in the iron ore futures contract was a net short position of 14,724, a decrease of 3,885 compared with the previous week [20]. 3.2.3 Spot Price - On January 23, the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was reported at 849 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was weaker than the futures price. On the 23rd, the basis was 54 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/ton [26]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Arrival Volume - From January 12 to January 18, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 29.298 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 251,100 tons. The total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 22.466 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 359,800 tons. The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 28.977 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117,300 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 26.597 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.607 million tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 14.429 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,300 tons [29]. 3.3.2 Inventory - This week, the total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 174.9653 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 207,830 tons; the daily average port congestion volume was 3.2052 million tons, a decrease of 145,000 tons. In terms of components, the Australian ore inventory was 77.7605 million tons, an increase of 193,840 tons; the Brazilian ore inventory was 60.9071 million tons, a decrease of 78,430 tons; the trading ore inventory was 115.2784 million tons, an increase of 174,990 tons. The total imported iron ore inventory of steel mills in China was 93.8882 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 126,600 tons; the current daily consumption of imported ore by the sample steel mills was 2.819 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 50 tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 33.31 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.44 days [34]. 3.3.3 Inventory Availability Days - As of January 22, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore in large and medium - sized domestic steel mills was 23 days, a week - on - week increase of 2 days. On January 22, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,761, a week - on - week increase of 194 [38]. 3.3.4 Import Volume and Capacity Utilization - According to customs statistics, in December, China imported 119.647 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, an increase of 9.107 million tons compared with the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 8.2%; from January to December, the cumulative import of iron ore and its concentrates was 1.258709 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. As of January 16, the capacity utilization rate of the sample of 266 mines in China was 62.82%, a week - on - week increase of 4.06%; the daily average output of fine powder was 396,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 25,600 tons; the inventory was 435,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25,600 tons [42]. 3.3.5 Domestic Iron Ore Production - In December 2025, China's iron ore raw ore production was 79.3449 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.6831 million tons. From January to December, the cumulative production was 1.0020771 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.0188 million tons. In November, the iron fine powder production of 433 iron ore mining enterprises in China was 22.811 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 129,000 tons, a decrease of 0.6%; from January to November, the cumulative production was 252.471 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 8.576 million tons, a decrease of 3.3% [45]. 3.4 Downstream Situation 3.4.1 Crude Steel Production - In December 2025, China's crude steel production was 68.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. In the whole year of 2025, China's crude steel production was 960.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4% [49]. 3.4.2 Steel Imports and Exports - In December 2025, China exported 11.301 million tons of steel, an increase of 1.321 million tons compared with the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 13.2%; from January to December, the cumulative steel export was 119.019 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. In December, China imported 517,000 tons of steel, an increase of 21,000 tons compared with the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%; from January to December, the cumulative steel import was 6.059 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1% [49]. 3.4.3 Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Molten Iron Production - On January 23, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.70 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.51%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.87 percentage points. On January 23, the daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills was 2.281 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 90 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.65 million tons [52]. 3.5 Options Market - With stagnant molten iron production, continuous inventory accumulation at ports, and relatively abundant spot resources, the futures price may fluctuate weakly. It is suggested to consider buying out - of - the - money put options on the I2605 contract after a rebound [55].

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.23」 沪铜市场周报 供应充足需求暂稳，沪铜或将震荡运行 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 80000 130000 180000 230000 280000 330000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 110000 2025-02-27 2025-04-27 2025-06-27 2025-08-27 2025-10-27 2025-12-27 主力合约收盘价及持仓 CUZL.SHF CUZL.SHF 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：沪铜主力合约周线高位震荡，周线涨跌幅为+0.57%，振幅2.77%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价101340元/吨。 后市展望：国际方面，美国2025年第三季度GDP终值年化环比增长4.4%，高于4.3%的初值，创下近两年来最快增速。美 联储青睐的通胀指标——11月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%，环比上涨0.2%，均符合预期。美国上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is expected to continue its downward trend despite the Bank of Japan's recent hawkish signals, as the lack of strong measures to support the currency keeps depreciation pressure intact [1][2]. Group 1: Current Economic Situation - The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at a 30-year high, leading to a 0.2% decline in the yen against the dollar, reaching 158.74 [1]. - Strategists express differing views on whether the yen can stabilize and rebound, with some indicating that the current exchange rate is close to a critical psychological level of 160 [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Despite the Bank of Japan's slight hawkish tone, the absence of substantial measures means that the yen's short-term downward pressure is unlikely to reverse [2]. - Market expectations suggest that current interest rates may be too low relative to inflation levels, leading to further anticipated weakness in the yen [2]. - Some strategists believe that the Bank of Japan's recent communication indicates a potential for future rate hikes, with expectations for the next increase possibly occurring in July [3]. Group 3: Strategic Insights - Certain strategists identify positive signals in the Bank of Japan's policy adjustments, suggesting a potential bottoming out for the yen [3]. - The outlook for inflation and wages appears relatively strong, which may support a hawkish stance and further rate hikes [3]. - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's stance may complicate the situation for the yen, making decisive investor action challenging [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to maintain the policy interest rate at 0.75%, aligning with market expectations, while one member voted against this decision, advocating for an increase to 1.0% due to achieved price stability and rising inflation risks from overseas economic recovery [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decision - The BOJ's decision was passed with an 8 to 1 vote, with dissent from member Takeda, who argued for a rate hike based on the current economic conditions [1]. - The BOJ indicated that it would continue to raise policy rates if economic and price trends align with its forecasts, highlighting a balanced risk outlook for both economic and inflation prospects [1]. Group 2: Economic and Inflation Risks - The BOJ noted uncertainties in the global economic outlook, particularly regarding trade policies that could increase import prices and impact supply chains [2]. - The IMF has warned that Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds safe limits, raising concerns about potential debt default risks, especially with the upcoming elections possibly leading to more expansionary fiscal policies [2]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the BOJ's announcement, Japanese government bond yields surged, with 5-year, 30-year, and 40-year bonds reaching historical highs, while the 10-year bond yield was reported at 2.239% [2]. - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming press conference by BOJ Governor Ueda, which may influence the yen's exchange rate and provide insights into future monetary policy directions [1].

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan decided to maintain the target uncollateralized overnight call rate at 0.75% during the monetary policy meeting on January 23, indicating a cautious approach to interest rate adjustments while observing their impact on the economy and prices [2][4] - The Bank of Japan has raised its economic growth and consumer price inflation forecasts for the fiscal year 2026, considering government economic measures and ongoing wage increases [2] - Among the nine policy board members, member Takeda expressed that the price stability target has been largely achieved and proposed raising the policy rate to 1.0% due to high inflation risks amid a recovering global economy, but this proposal was rejected by a majority vote [4]

【环球网财经综合报道】中国人民银行发布公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，将于1月23日开展9000亿 元中期借贷便利（MLF）操作。本次操作期限为1年期，采用固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标的方式。 市场数据显示，本月共有2000亿元MLF到期，这意味着此次续作将实现净投放7000亿元，规模显著加大。若 综合考虑本月两个期限品种买断式逆回购净投放的3000亿元，1月中期流动性净投放总额高达1万亿元，远超 此前水平。业内分析认为，央行此次大规模加量续做MLF，旨在应对春节临近带来的季节性资金需求波动， 并配合政府债券发行及信贷投放"开门红"的需要。 中欧国际工商学院教授、中国首席经济学家论坛研究院院长盛松成认为，随着央行货币政策工具箱日益丰 富，货币政策"小步走"已成为一种常态。当然，在流动性缺口较大的情况下，仍需要降准、降息等措施予以 支持。未来货币政策面临的内外约束有望进一步缓解，我国降准、降息仍有空间，但需等待更有利的时机， 重点关注财政政策落实节奏、银行净息差企稳情况以及金融市场稳定性。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，央行本次大规模加量续做MLF，显著加大中期流动性投放，能够有效应 对潜在的流动性收紧 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Report Core Viewpoints - There is no need to worry about the so - called "interest rate hike" of DR001 recently. "Guiding the overnight interest rate to operate around the policy interest rate" does not mean guiding the average of the overnight interest rate to be exactly equal to the policy interest rate, and the 1.35% DR001 in the second half of 2025 can be considered to be operating around the policy interest rate [1][11]. - The statement of "guiding the overnight interest rate to operate around the policy interest rate" is not contradictory to the previous statement of "guiding short - term money market interest rates to operate around the policy interest rate center" because they describe different objects and states. Since the second half of 2025, the average of DR001 and DR007 is 1.42%, only deviating from the policy interest rate by 2bp, which is an embodiment of "operating around the policy interest rate center" [2][11]. - The recent increase in DR001 is not high. The value on January 22, 2026, is only at the 86% quantile level since the second half of 2025, and DR001 also has a law of rising in the second half of the month. The recent increase is just a return to the "normal" level [3][13]. - If the deviation of DR001 from the policy interest rate is limited within a period, it indicates that it is in the "around mode", and it is not advisable to over - interpret the normal fluctuations of DR or rely on the short - term changes of DR to judge the attitude of monetary policy [4][16]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Is DR001 going to have an "interest rate hike"? - Some investors are worried that the average of DR001 will rise and approach 1.4% because the average of DR001 in the second half of 2025 was 1.35%, lower than the 7D OMO rate of 1.4%, and the average of DR001 since mid - January 2026 has been significantly higher than before [1][9]. - There is no need to worry. The statement of "guiding the overnight interest rate to operate around the policy interest rate" does not mean guiding the average of the overnight interest rate to be exactly equal to the policy interest rate, and it is consistent with the previous statement of "guiding short - term money market interest rates to operate around the policy interest rate center" [1][2]. 2. How to view the recent increase in DR001? - On January 22, 2026, DR001 reached 1.42%, the highest since early December 2025, but it is only at the 86% quantile level since the second half of 2025, and DR001 has a law of rising in the second half of the month [3][13]. - Comparing the average of DR001 from the beginning of the month to the 22nd in several months, the value in December 2025 was relatively low, and the recent increase is a return to the "normal" level [3][13]. - The monthly average of DR001 in the second half of 2025 did not differ much, and most months were around 1.37%, close to the policy interest rate. In the "around mode", it is not advisable to over - interpret the normal fluctuations of DR or rely on short - term changes to judge monetary policy [4][16].

Group 1: European Central Bank (ECB) Decisions - The ECB decided to maintain interest rates unchanged during the December 17-18 meeting, indicating that the current monetary policy stance is in a "good state" to balance economic support and inflation control [1][6] - The ECB emphasized its flexibility to adjust interest rates up or down in response to changes in economic and inflation outlooks [1][6] - The ECB raised its GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 0.2 percentage points, despite global trade challenges [1][6] Group 2: UK Government Borrowing - The UK government saw a larger-than-expected reduction in borrowing in December, with government spending exceeding tax revenue by £11.6 billion (approximately $15.6 billion) [1][6] - The deficit decreased by £7.1 billion compared to the same month last year, which was lower than the median forecast of £13 billion from economists [1][6] - This marks the lowest borrowing level for the UK government in December since 2003 [1][6]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) has shown a slight increase against the US dollar (USD), supported by positive domestic economic data and a weakening USD, although overbought signals indicate potential for a pullback [1][4]. Economic Data - Australia's economic indicators have been strong, with the January manufacturing PMI rising to 52.4 from 51.6, and the services PMI increasing significantly from 51.1 to 56.0, indicating robust demand and economic momentum [1]. - Employment data also reflects a strong labor market, with December job changes recorded at 65.2K, significantly improving from the revised November figure of 28.7K, and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%, below the expected 4.4% [1]. Inflation Trends - Recent inflation data shows a rebound, with the December TD-MI inflation indicator increasing to 3.5% year-on-year from 3.2%, and a month-on-month surge of 1.0%, the fastest since December 2023 [2]. - Despite a decrease in core CPI to 3.4% in November, it remains above the RBA's target range of 2%-3%, prompting calls for caution from the IMF regarding ongoing inflation concerns [2]. USD Performance - The USD has been weak, with the DXY index stabilizing around 98.30, influenced by US economic data and Federal Reserve policy expectations [4]. - The US GDP annualized growth rate for Q3 2025 was reported at 4.4%, slightly above expectations, while initial jobless claims were lower than anticipated at 200,000 [4]. Technical Analysis - The AUD/USD pair is showing a clear bullish pattern, trading around 0.6850, with technical indicators suggesting a potential breakout above the upper channel [5]. - If the pair closes above the upper channel, it may target 0.6942, while key support is at 0.6762; a drop below this level could weaken momentum and test further support at 0.6680 [5].

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.408 | 102.444 | 105.835 | 105.845 | 108.150 | 108.120 | 112.17 | 112.29 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.430 | 102.462 | 105.880 | 105.875 | 108.200 | 108.190 | 112.25 | 112.36 | | | 涨跌 | -0.022 | -0.018 | -0.045 | -0.030 | -0.050 | -0.070 | -0.080 | -0.070 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0 ...