#报告 法兴银行：美国物价所反映的关税信息；一个微小细节可能成为未来中美谈判中争议点。None (@None):None ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: The dollar index is in a weak and volatile pattern, which is positive for gold prices. However, if the US - Russia negotiation makes substantial progress, it may put downward pressure on gold prices. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Medium - term: Factors such as the inflation rebound risk due to tariffs, the expectation of the Fed's loose policy, the damage to the US dollar's credit, and the resilient demand for central bank gold purchases still provide strong support. The bullish logic remains intact, pushing up the central price of gold. In the medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to buy on dips. The target range for the Shanghai Gold 2510 contract is 770 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver 2510 contract is 9200 - 9400 yuan/kilogram [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 777.72 yuan/gram, up 1.68 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 9300 yuan/kilogram, up 113 yuan. The positions of the main contracts and the net positions of the top 20 have different changes, and the gold warehouse receipts remain unchanged while the silver warehouse receipts decrease by 16,111 kilograms [2]. - **Spot Market**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price is 773.7 yuan/gram, down 0.3 yuan; the silver spot price is 9200 yuan/kilogram, up 66 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is - 4.02 yuan/gram, down 1.98 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 100 yuan/kilogram, down 47 yuan [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Gold ETF holdings remain unchanged, and silver ETF holdings increase by 40.96 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold and silver in CFTC have different changes. The quarterly total supply and demand of gold both increase by about 54.8 tons. The annual total supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces, and the global annual demand is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. - **Option Market**: The historical and implied volatilities of gold options have different changes, with the 20 - day historical volatility of gold up 0.1% and the 40 - day historical volatility down 0.18% [2]. 3.2 Industry News - US tariff revenue reached a new high in July, but the budget deficit still expanded. The tariff revenue in July soared to $28 billion, a year - on - year increase of 273%, and the budget deficit reached $291 billion, a 10% increase year - on - year [2]. - US President Trump urged the Fed to cut interest rates again and threatened to sue Fed Chairman Powell. US Treasury Secretary called on the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September [2]. - Affected by the market's expectation of interest rate cuts, the US dollar index weakened, the Shanghai gold price recovered, and the silver price continued to rebound strongly. The year - on - year growth rate of US CPI in July was lower than expected [2]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 6.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 93.4% [2].

Macroeconomic Outlook - TS Lombard warns of a tariff-driven growth slowdown [1] Report Focus - The report is a global macro monthly report [1]

为什么消息会引起市场的恐慌？ 金条通常被视为一种金融工具而非实物产品，外界此前普遍认为，金条将被排除在特朗普所谓"对等"关税之外。对金条征收关税将对全球黄金流通产生深远 影响，并可能影响美国黄金期货合约的平稳运行。全球金条市场由一个复杂且有时脆弱的金条制造和流通体系支撑，其中包括纽约和上海的期货交易所，以 及由伦敦银行监管的庞大场外交易市场。 上周市场突传消息，美国海关和边境保护局上周决定对进口产品征收关税，令交易员们大吃一惊。这一冲击导致纽约商品交易所（COMEX）的黄金期货价 格周五飙升逾100美元，创下每盎司3530美元以上的新高。周一特朗普出面表示：不会对进口金条征收关税，黄金随即回落。 黄金市场经历了什么？ 上周，美国海关与边境保护局（CBP）让交易员震惊，宣布黄金进口需缴纳关税。根据这项裁定，1公斤和100盎司金条将适用特朗普于8月7日生效的按国家 征收关税的措施。该决定以一封致瑞士一家黄金精炼厂的回信形式作出。消息一出，纽约黄金期货价格飙升至历史新高，此前业内人士警告称，关税将给市 场带来可怕后果。然而，在特朗普政府暗示金条进口最终将免除关税后，金价迅速走跌。 据彭博社数据，仅在纽约和伦敦，就有 ...

Core Viewpoint - Mizuho's report indicates that the end of the year is considered the earliest opportunity for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to raise interest rates, with a hawkish stance on inflation and economic conditions being highlighted [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The BOJ's July monetary policy meeting summary released on August 8 presents a hawkish view on inflation, noting that both actual inflation and inflation expectations are rising, alongside increases in corporate profits and wages [1] - Some board members advocate for an early rate hike, emphasizing the need for the BOJ to manage risks and not miss the opportunity to raise rates [1] - However, there are opinions suggesting that the BOJ intends to take time to assess the economic impact of U.S. tariffs, indicating that a decision on policy changes may not be imminent [1][2] Group 2: Assessment Timeline - It is suggested that at least two to three months are needed to evaluate the impact of U.S. tariff policies, which could delay any potential rate hike until December at the earliest [2] - The statement regarding the assessment period and the earliest exit from the current stance implies a lower likelihood of rate hikes in September or October, contrasting with market expectations of a 40% probability for a rate hike in October [2] Group 3: Inflation Focus - Multiple opinions suggest that the BOJ should shift its focus from core inflation to actual inflation, recognizing that actual inflation is becoming increasingly important as core inflation approaches 2% [3] - Despite acknowledging that inflation is running above 2%, there are concerns that focusing too much on actual inflation could hinder the possibility of a rate hike due to expected declines in inflation rates [3] Group 4: U.S. Federal Reserve Context - Mizuho notes that U.S. employment data indicates a softening labor market, which may support the Federal Reserve's move towards rate cuts, with a probability of over 90% for a rate cut in September [4] - Nomura Securities has also adjusted its expectations for the Fed to cut rates in September, citing signs of slowing inflation and initial cracks in the labor market [4]

Core Viewpoint - The extension of tariffs against China is seen as a reluctant move by the U.S., with Trump feeling compelled to sign the order despite his dissatisfaction with the situation [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Extension Context - Trump signed an executive order to extend tariffs until November 10, following China's announcement of a tariff truce [1]. - The joint statement from both sides confirmed the extension but lacked substantial agreements beyond this point [1][3]. - The extension of tariffs was anticipated, as ongoing trade issues between the U.S. and China have been exacerbated by Trump's "America First" policy [3]. Group 2: Political and Economic Implications - The tariff extension reflects broader geopolitical factors, indicating that the U.S. does not wish to escalate tensions further, as it lacks the power to force China into submission [3]. - Trump's approach has shifted to a more subdued tone, indicating his frustration with the current state of negotiations [2][4]. - The U.S. has faced challenges in trade negotiations with China, leading to a precarious position in international discussions [5]. Group 3: Domestic Pressures - Domestic pressures are mounting on Trump, particularly due to recent controversies and disappointing employment data, which have raised questions about the effectiveness of tariffs [7]. - Despite some fiscal benefits from tariffs, the general public has not felt significant advantages, leading to scrutiny of Trump's performance [7]. - Trump has been advocating for interest rate cuts to alleviate pressure on small businesses affected by tariffs, but the Federal Reserve has shown reluctance to lower rates [7][8]. Group 4: Economic Strategy - Trump's tax reform has aimed to stimulate corporate growth and employment, but the uncertain market environment raises doubts about companies' willingness to expand [8]. - The continuation of the tariff truce is seen as a necessary compromise for the U.S. to maintain stability in negotiations, despite Trump's personal dissatisfaction with the situation [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariffs on inflation in the U.S., suggesting that the duration of tariffs (temporary vs. long-term) is more critical than their mere existence in determining inflationary pressures [4][11]. Tariff Classification - The paper categorizes post-World War II U.S. tariffs into two types: temporary and long-term, revealing that approximately 80% of historical tariff fluctuations are temporary [5][9]. Economic Behavior - If tariffs are perceived as temporary, businesses and consumers may adjust their purchasing behavior and reduce price increase pressures, potentially leading to a more stable economic environment [7][9]. - Conversely, if tariffs are seen as permanent, businesses are likely to incorporate costs into prices, resulting in a one-time price increase followed by stabilization [8][9]. Historical Examples - Historical instances, such as Nixon's 1971 import surcharge and Ford's 1975 oil import fee, demonstrate that temporary tariffs do not significantly impact inflation or economic growth, often coinciding with interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10][11]. Market Sentiment - The market's primary concern is not whether tariffs are imposed but rather their expected duration, which influences economic cycles and Federal Reserve policies [11][13]. Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The Federal Reserve faces uncertainty in its decision-making, balancing concerns over inflation from tariffs with the need to respond to early signs of economic slowdown [14][15]. Emerging Concerns - Two significant narratives are developing in the market: the impact of data revisions on perceptions of economic stability and concerns regarding attacks on central bank independence, which historically correlate with higher inflation [18][19][20].

高盛经济学家上周日发布报告预计，到10月，美国消费者承担的关税成本比例会从6月的22%升至67%。特朗普本周二发帖称，关税没有给消费者带来通 胀问题，在大多数情况下，甚至没有支付这些关税；高盛CEO却拒绝认可这些，他应该找个新的经济学家，高盛很久以前就错误预测了市场反应和关 税。 美东时间8月12日周二，特朗普在社交媒体发帖，指责高盛对关税政策的市场影响和消费者成本做出"错误预测"，而且点名嘲讽苏德巍，叫他不如改 行，专心做自己的爱好，当个DJ就好。 特朗普发帖抨击两天前，高盛经济学家团队8月10日上周日刚刚与发布一份研究报告，称美国消费者将承担关税成本的大部分负担。据追风交易台的报 道，截至6月，美国消费者承担了22%的关税成本，但如果最新关税遵循往年征收模式，预计到10月，消费者的承担比例将升至67%。 特朗普本周二在旗下社交媒体平台上写道："我认为David（苏德巍）应该出去给自己找个新经济学家，或者，也许他应该专心当DJ，不要再费心经营大 型金融机构了。" 这一评论直接嘲讽了苏德巍长期的DJ爱好。高盛的发言人拒绝就此置评。 高盛报告预计到10月消费者承担关税成本大幅升至67% 高盛首席经济学家Jan ...

宏观经济点评 美联储 9 月或降息 25bp，但后续降息次数可能有限 ——美国 7 月 CPI 点评 | 何宁（分析师） | 潘纬桢（分析师） | | --- | --- | | hening@kysec.cn | panweizhen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 | 证书编号：S0790524040006 | 事件：美国公布 2025 年 7 月最新通胀数据。其中 CPI 同比上升 2.7%，环比上 升 0.2%，同比增速不及市场预期；核心 CPI 同比上升 3.1%，环比上升 0.3%， 同比增速超市场预期。 通胀相对平稳，核心通胀略超预期，关税冲击正在体现 1. 总体通胀相对平稳，核心通胀同比增速超市场预期。美国 7 月 CPI 同比上升 2.7%，环比上升 0.2%，表现相对平稳；核心 CPI 同比上涨 3.1%，环比上升 0.3%，出现不同程度反弹。总的看，美国通胀总体未再回升，但核心通胀同比 增速较 6 月有一定反弹，且相对超市场预期，或显示关税对美国通胀的冲击正 在体现，且影响力度较大。往后看，由于 2024 年基数相对较低，通胀水平或将 继续反弹，需观察美 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month in July [1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, marking the largest month-on-month increase in six months [1] - The housing cost index contributed significantly to the CPI increase, with a year-on-year rise of 3.7% and a month-on-month rise of 0.2% [1] Inflation Drivers - Beef prices saw a notable increase of 1.5% month-on-month, influenced by drought conditions affecting ranch production and tariffs raising import beef prices [1] - Energy prices decreased, with the energy price index falling by 1.6% year-on-year and 1.1% month-on-month, partially offsetting inflationary pressures [1] - Gasoline prices decreased by 2.2% month-on-month, contributing to the overall decline in energy prices [1] Economic Implications - The inflation data indicates a slowdown in rent increases and a drop in gasoline prices, which may mitigate the impact of tariff measures [1] - Many businesses are likely absorbing a significant portion of the tariff costs, suggesting potential implications for pricing strategies [1] - The stability in July's inflation data keeps the possibility of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month on the table [1]