1月26日，黄金和白银价格再创新高。伦敦现货黄金价格盘中一度突破5100美元／盎司，年内涨幅超 18%；伦敦现货白银价格盘中一度突破110美元／盎司，年内涨幅超50%。今年以来，贵金属价格震荡 走高，笔者认为，核心驱动来自贸易冲突、全球央行购金、地缘风险三方面。 首先，贸易冲突再次升级，美欧关税风波又起。美国总统特朗普1月17日表示，除非美国获准购买格陵 兰岛，否则将自2月1日起对丹麦、挪威、瑞典、法国、德国、荷兰、芬兰和英国的商品加征10%额外进 口关税。虽然之后特朗普宣称暂时停止加征关税，但贸易摩擦概率陡然上升。另外，欧盟可能考虑采取 反制措施，整体环境仍对美元不利。整体来看，贸易冲突对美元构成负面影响。投资者权衡美欧贸易紧 张局势重燃以及美国最高法院可能就关税合法性作出裁决的潜在影响，以及市场担忧美欧贸易战可能造 成破坏性影响，一定程度上有利于贵金属的避险溢价。 其次，全球央行购金刺激需求，美债遭抛售利空美元。丹麦养老基金AkademikerPension近日表示，将 在月底前出售其持有的所有国债，理由是特朗普总统任内的信用风险上升。该基金首席投资官表示，美 国总体上信用状况不佳，从长远来看，美国政府的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The escalation of geopolitical tensions and the increased probability of a U.S. government shutdown have driven up safe-haven demand, resulting in a rise in gold prices, with COMEX gold futures reaching a peak of $5107 before closing at $5004.8 per ounce, marking a 0.5% increase [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold ETFs, such as Huaxia (518850), increased by 2.76%, while gold stock ETFs (159562) rose by 7.58%, and non-ferrous metal ETFs (516650) gained 5.52% [1] - The probability of a U.S. government shutdown by the end of January has surged to nearly 80%, up from less than 10% the previous week, indicating heightened market anxiety [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The surge in gold prices is attributed to several factors, including uncertainty surrounding former President Trump's policies, concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve amid an investigation into Chairman Powell, and geopolitical risks from regions such as Venezuela, Iran, and Greenland [1] - Gold prices have increased by approximately 18% this month, potentially marking the largest monthly gain in over 40 years [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Institutions remain optimistic about gold's trajectory, with Goldman Sachs raising its year-end price target for gold from $4900 to $5400 per ounce [1]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 原油： （钟美燕，从业资格号：F3045334；交易咨询资格号：Z0002410） 周一油价震荡回落，其中WTI 3月合约收盘下跌0.44美元至60.63美元/桶，跌幅0.72%。布伦特3月合约收 盘下跌0.29美元至65.59美元/桶，跌幅0.44%。SC2603以450.1元/桶收盘，下跌0.8元/桶，跌幅为0.18%。 随着一个承担了哈萨克斯坦大部分原油出口的关键黑海码头恢复运行，一度导致欧洲市场供应紧张的哈 萨克斯坦原油出口中断情况有所缓解。与此同时，该国巨型的Tengiz油田也将于近期重新启动产出。在 投资者评估席卷美国广大地区的冬季风暴带来的影响之际，新增供应缓解了市场对短缺的担忧。包括埃 克森美孚公司的Baytown大型炼油厂在内的多家工厂在暴风雪来临前削减了运营。1月26日，中东紧张 局势仍在持续，美国总统特朗普向中东地区派遣海军力量引发外界猜测他可能兑现攻击伊朗政权的威 胁，并加剧了对该国原油产出的担忧。特朗普表示，鉴于韩国方面尚未通过该项贸易协议，他已决定将 对韩国汽车、木材、制药产品以及其他对等关税项目的税率从15%上调至 ...

Group 1 - Silver prices accelerated, with London silver spot prices increasing by 12% and New York silver futures rising over 16% on January 26 [1] - However, both gold and silver prices experienced a significant pullback, with London silver spot prices dropping to approximately $103 per ounce from a high of $117 per ounce, and London gold spot prices falling below $5000 per ounce from around $5100 per ounce [1][11] - The London gold spot price closed down 0.77% at $5000.2 per ounce, while London silver spot price decreased by 1.54% to $103.3 per ounce, reflecting a drop of nearly $14 from its intraday high [11] Group 2 - Analysts noted that the recent surge in silver prices is driven by a combination of macroeconomic policies, industrial demand expectations, and market sentiment [17] - The core drivers for the rise in silver prices include increased risk aversion and a weakening dollar, with funds rotating into "high beta" assets like silver following strong gold price movements [17] - The supply-demand structure for silver indicates a long-term structural imbalance, with a projected supply gap of around 3000 tons in 2026, marking the fifth consecutive year of supply shortages [18][19] Group 3 - The recent volatility in silver prices is exacerbated by adjustments in trading limits by exchanges, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange making multiple changes to silver futures trading limits over the past month [13] - The increase in geopolitical risks, such as tensions between the U.S. and Iran, and concerns over key metal supplies are contributing to the bullish outlook for silver prices [17][19] - Market participants are advised to approach trading with caution, emphasizing risk management and structured trading strategies due to the potential for significant price fluctuations [19]

26日晚，白银价格加速上涨。伦敦银现货价格涨幅扩大至12%，纽约期银主力合约涨逾16%。 不过，今天凌晨，黄金与白银价格大幅回调，伦敦银现货价格转跌，报约103美元/盎司，此前最高触及117美元/盎司。伦敦金现货价格同样转跌，一度跌 破5000美元/盎司，此前在5100美元/盎司附近运行。 1月7日，上期所调整白银期货合约交易限额，自2026年1月9日（即1月8日夜盘）交易起，非期货公司会员、境外特殊非经纪参与者、客户在白银期货各合 约的日内开仓交易的最大数量为7000手。 2025年12月22日，上期所调整白银期货合约交易限额，自2025年12月24日（即12月23日夜盘）交易起，非期货公司会员、境外特殊非经纪参与者、客户在 白银期货AG2602合约的日内开仓交易的最大数量为10000手。 截至收盘，伦敦金现货价格下跌0.77%，报5000.2美元/盎司，较日内高点下跌约100美元/盎司；伦敦银现货价格下跌1.54%，报103.3美元/盎司，较日内高 点下跌近14美元/盎司；纽约期银主力合约上涨2.52%。内盘方面，沪金期货主力合约收涨1.49%，沪银期货主力合约收涨9.93%。 罕见！盘中、盘后，交易所接 ...

Core Viewpoint - The weakening of the US dollar has fueled a significant rise in gold prices, with London gold reaching a historic high of $5,111.17 per ounce on January 26, marking an increase of over 17% since the beginning of the year [1]. Group 1: Drivers of Gold Price Surge - The surge in gold prices is driven by three main factors: increased geopolitical risks leading to heightened demand for safe-haven assets, the depreciation of the US dollar and concerns over its creditworthiness, and accelerated purchases of gold by global central banks and investors [4][5]. - Geopolitical risks have intensified, with the World Gold Council indicating that gold has become the preferred safe-haven asset amid rising market uncertainties [4]. - The US government's debt exceeding $38 trillion and the annual interest payments surpassing $1 trillion have raised doubts about the dollar's credibility, prompting a shift towards gold as a reserve asset [5]. Group 2: Market Logic Changes - The gold market has entered a phase of accelerated growth, contrasting with the previous year's gradual increase, driven by geopolitical events that inject additional risk premiums into gold prices [6]. - The underlying narrative for gold's rise remains unchanged, with geopolitical factors acting as an "accelerator" for price increases, while a potential return to a gold standard is noted among some capital movements [6][7]. - The current dynamics reflect a significant re-evaluation of gold's value in the context of a shifting global monetary landscape, although it does not imply a return to a gold standard [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the current upward trend in gold prices, there are concerns about potential volatility and the need for cautious investment strategies among ordinary investors [8]. - Analysts suggest that while gold prices may continue to rise, investors should be wary of high volatility and plan their asset allocation accordingly, focusing on long-term strategies rather than short-term gains [8][9]. - Projections indicate that gold prices could fluctuate between $4,800 and $5,200 per ounce before the Lunar New Year, with some forecasts suggesting a target price of $6,000 per ounce in the near future [9].

Core Insights - A government-appointed advisory group indicates that Norway's $2.1 trillion sovereign wealth fund must intensify preparations to address increasing geopolitical risks [1][4] - The report highlights that tariffs, financial sanctions, and trade controls are increasingly being used to achieve geopolitical objectives [1][4] - The fund's size and prominence amplify these risks, with potential consequences including increased taxes, regulatory intervention, or even confiscation of assets [1][4] Group 1 - The report comes at a time when the fund, the world's largest holder of publicly traded stocks, is experiencing turmoil due to public backlash over its holdings related to the Gaza conflict [1][4] - This backlash led to the Norwegian Bank Investment Management Company divesting from several companies, including Caterpillar, which angered multiple Republican lawmakers in the U.S. [1][4] Group 2 - In response to the situation, Norwegian authorities have suspended the work of the ethical council that advises the fund to prevent sudden divestment actions [5] - Last week, Norway's Finance Minister Jens Stoltenberg rejected proposals to withdraw from the U.S. amid geopolitical turmoil [6] - The working group, led by University of Oslo professor Karen Helene Ulltveit-Moe, acknowledged that managing such risks is challenging, and that potential "friend-shoring" strategies could severely hinder risk diversification and investment returns [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant surge in precious metal prices, including gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, driven by global financial capital dynamics and geopolitical factors, leading to a bullish outlook for related A-share and futures markets [3][6][14]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 26, gold prices in London surpassed $5100 per ounce, while silver prices exceeded $100 per ounce, marking a historic high [3][6]. - The A-share market saw the precious metals sector lead with a 7.3% increase, while basic metals rose by 2.73% [3][4]. - Individual stocks in the gold and rare metals sectors experienced significant gains, with several reaching their daily limit [5][6]. Group 2: Price Drivers - Analysts attribute the price surge to a combination of short-term geopolitical risks, medium-term policy expectations, and long-term structural weaknesses in the dollar credit system [6][14]. - The strong performance of platinum and palladium is linked to the overall capital flow into precious metals, as investors seek to capitalize on rising prices [7][14]. Group 3: Company Performance - In 2025, international gold prices rose over 60%, and silver prices increased by more than 140%, positively impacting the earnings of many listed companies [8][9]. - Companies like Zhaojin Mining and Hunan Gold reported significant profit increases due to rising metal prices, with Zhaojin expecting a profit turnaround from a previous loss [8][9]. - Other companies, such as Xianglu Tungsten and Zijin Mining, also forecast substantial profit growth driven by higher metal prices and improved operational efficiencies [9][10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts maintain a bullish long-term outlook for precious metals, with expectations that gold prices could challenge the $6000 per ounce mark in 2026 [14]. - The article emphasizes the importance of cautious investment strategies in the current high-volatility environment, recommending a combination of dollar-cost averaging and careful risk management [14].

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices have surpassed $5000 per ounce, with Goldman Sachs targeting $5400 and Morgan Stanley at $5700 per ounce for 2026 [1] - The driving forces behind gold's strength include a structural shift in central bank gold purchases, with annual purchases exceeding 1000 tons since 2022, and 43% of surveyed central banks planning to increase their gold holdings [2] - The transition in central bank purchasing logic from "reserve ratio targets" to "absolute tonnage targets" is expected to provide ongoing support for gold prices [2] - Continued inflows into gold ETFs, with a total increase of 725 tons from January to mid-December 2025, indicate strong demand, especially with anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - Geopolitical risks have risen significantly, with the geopolitical risk index increasing by 77%, historically correlating with gold price increases [2] - Current net long positions in COMEX gold are at their highest since September 2025, indicating strong market participation [2] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have reached historical highs, driven by its precious metal attributes and a tight supply-demand balance [4] - The strong performance of silver is supported by a significant supply gap and increased ETF holdings, with 2025 seeing the second-highest increase since 2020 [5] - China's physical demand for silver has surged, with local supply constraints leading to a premium of 15% for Shanghai silver over COMEX prices [5] - Despite some structural changes in industrial demand, particularly in the solar sector, applications in AI and other industries are expected to provide support for silver demand [5] - The current gold-silver ratio is at its lowest since 2011, suggesting potential for silver price increases if macroeconomic conditions remain favorable [5] Group 3: Broader Commodity Market Trends - The commodity market is experiencing a clear divergence, with precious metals outperforming industrial metals and bulk commodities [8] - Basic metals have seen limited price increases, with nickel leading due to supply disruptions, while copper prices are supported by macroeconomic factors [6] - Bulk commodities like iron ore have faced downward pressure due to rising inventories, while thermal coal prices have increased due to extreme weather conditions [6] - The outlook for 2026 suggests that precious metals will continue to have upward potential, while industrial metals will benefit from supply constraints and emerging demand [8] - Investors are advised to focus on precious metals and those industrial metals with significant supply-demand gaps, while monitoring geopolitical tensions and Federal Reserve policies [9]

冠通期货研究报告 --原油周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 发布时间：2026年01月26日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 1月4日，欧佩克+发布声明，决定维持2025年11月初制定的产量计划，在2026年2月和3月继续暂停增产。原油需求淡季，EIA数 据显示，美国原油库存累库幅度超预期，同时汽油库存累库幅度继续超预期，整体油品库存继续增加。美国原油产量小幅减少，仍 位于历史最高位附近。美国能源部长赖特在世界经济论坛上呼吁将全球石油产量提高1倍以上，以满足不断增长的需求并防止能源 贫困。近期国际货币基金组织将2026年世界经济增速上调0.2个百分点，寒冷天气推动柴油取暖需求，需求担忧有所缓解。不过， 全球原油浮库高企，原油仍是供应过剩格局，EIA最新的1月月报上调了2026年原油供应过剩幅度。雪佛龙正加大对于委内瑞拉原油 的运输。目前委内瑞拉对于全球原油供需影响不大。美国财政部23日宣布针对伊朗实施新一轮制裁措施，涉及多家与石 ...