降息与加税担忧加剧市场压力 英镑对欧元跌至三个月低点 金十数据7月14日讯，由于市场担忧英国将加快降息步伐，且可能通过加税来填补财政缺口，英镑对欧 元的跌幅扩大，触及三个月低点。英国央行行长贝利表示，若就业市场放缓过快，不排除采取更激进的 降息措施。这使得周四即将公布的英国就业数据愈发重要。Ebury经济学家阿尔瓦雷斯在一份报告中 称，上周公布的英国5月经济增长数据表现疲软，这让8月降息的可能性日益增大，同时也增加了秋季进 一步加税的风险。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the international gold price showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, while the international silver price broke through $39 per ounce, reaching a nearly 14 - year high. Trump postponed the tariff effective date from July 9th to August 1st, but sent tax - levy letters to multiple trading partners, and the overseas tariff disturbance still exists. His announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper in the US starting from August 1st drove up the price of US copper, and silver rose 4.7% last Friday due to its industrial attributes and the momentum of a catch - up rally, hitting a new high [2][3][6]. - The Fed's June meeting minutes showed that only a few of the 19 policymakers supported a rate cut this month, and most officials were worried about the inflation pressure that Trump's trade tariffs might bring. There are increasing rumors that Powell may be forced to resign [3][6]. - The market has become desensitized to tariffs, and risk assets have not shown significant adjustments. However, the 50% tariff on imported copper has significantly affected the US copper price. It is expected that the catch - up rally of silver prices will continue [3][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 773.56 | - 3.50 | - 0.45 | 181932 | 178255 | Yuan/Gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 769.30 | 1.50 | 0.20 | 32652 | 211814 | Yuan/Gram | | COMEX Gold | 3370.30 | 34.30 | 1.03 | | | US Dollar/Ounce | | SHFE Silver | 9040 | 121 | 1.36 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/Kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 9028 | 168 | 1.90 | 632508 | 3287648 | Yuan/Kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 39.08 | 2.04 | 5.49 | | | US Dollar/Ounce | [4] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - The international gold price was volatile and slightly stronger last week, and the international silver price reached a nearly 14 - year high. Trump's tariff policies brought both buffer periods and disturbances. The Fed's policymakers were divided on rate cuts, and rumors about Powell's possible resignation are increasing [3][6]. - The market has become desensitized to tariffs, but the 50% tariff on imported copper affected the US copper price. Silver reached a new high due to its industrial attributes and catch - up momentum, and its catch - up rally is expected to continue. This week, focus on the US June CPI, retail data, the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors' meeting, and the Fed's release of the Beige Book [9]. 3.3 Important Data Information - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 227,000, the fourth consecutive weekly decline and the lowest level in two months. The number of continued jobless claims in the previous week was 1.965 million, still the highest since the end of 2021 [10]. - The Eurozone's July Sentix investor confidence index was 4.5, the highest since February 2022. The Eurozone's May retail sales increased by 1.8% year - on - year [10]. - China's gold reserves at the end of June were reported at 73.9 million ounces (about 2298.55 tons), an increase of 70,000 ounces (about 2.18 tons) from the previous month, the eighth consecutive month of increase [10]. - Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper in the US, effective August 1, 2025. The US imports nearly half of its copper, mostly from Chile [10]. - Fed Governor Waller said the Fed could consider a rate cut in July, and should adjust its asset holdings and reduce the bank reserve scale. Fed's Daly said the Fed may cut rates twice this year, and it's time to consider rate adjustments [11]. 3.4 Relevant Data Charts The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of precious metals prices, inventory, non - commercial net long positions, spreads, ratios, and their relationships with other economic indicators such as inflation expectations, the US dollar index, and bond yields [16][17][18].

英国央行行长贝利暗示，如果就业市场恶化速度超过央行预期，可能实施更大幅度的降息。 ...

英国央行行长贝利：如果就业市场放缓，英国央行可能降息 金十数据7月14日讯，据英国《泰晤士报》，英国央行行长表示，如果就业市场出现明显放缓的迹象， 英国央行准备进行更大幅度的降息。贝利称，有"一致"的证据表明，在财政大臣里夫斯提高雇主国民保 险缴款后，企业"调整了就业"。他说，英国的经济增长落后于其潜力，形成有助于降低通胀的"闲置空 间"。贝利强调4月薪资税上调大幅影响企业裁员，迫使企业削减薪酬涨幅应对成本压力。他表示企业 正"通过调整雇佣规模、工时以及实施低于未增税情形的涨薪幅度来应对"。贝利承认，在6月降息之 后，一些人呼吁更快地降息。他说："我确实相信利率路径是向下的，但我们继续使用'渐进和谨慎'的 用词，因为有些人对我说，'当通胀高于目标时，你为什么要降息？'" ...

研究报告 橡胶周报 宏观提振供需改善，胶价或将震荡偏强 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 价格在 13900-14185 元/吨 之间运行，上周期货价格震荡上行，总体小幅上涨。 截至 2025 年 7 月 11 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合 约 RU2509 报收 14360 元/吨，当周上涨 355 点，涨幅 2.53%。 【后市展望】 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约价格震荡上行，总体小幅 上涨。 研究报告 报告日期：2025 年 7 月 14 日星期一 展望后市，从宏观面来看，关税风云再起，影响全球市场； 我国 6 月 CPI 同比上涨，6 月 PPI 环比下降。从基本面来看，供 给方面，近期主产区受天气扰动原料供应短缺支撑胶价，但是 后期存在较强的供应上量预期。需求方面，上周轮胎企业开工 率均有回升 ...

Central Bank Dynamics - The Trump administration is using the $700 million overspend on the Federal Reserve's headquarters renovation as a potential reason to dismiss Chairman Powell before his term ends in May 2026 [1] - Federal Reserve officials show significant disagreement regarding interest rate cuts, primarily due to differing expectations on the inflation impact of tariffs [2] - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has decreased to $6.7 trillion, with bank reserves at $3.3 trillion, and discussions on further balance sheet reduction are ongoing [3] Global Central Bank Responses - The European Central Bank (ECB) is considering maintaining flexible monetary policy in response to economic growth risks and potential deflation [4] - The Bank of England's Governor Bailey prefers central banks to provide tokenized deposits [6] - The Bank of Japan has completely sold off its holdings in bank stocks, focusing attention on its larger ETF holdings, which could take over 200 years to liquidate at the current pace [6] Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - U.S. inflation indicators are showing signs of upward pressure, with companies beginning to pass on tariff-related costs to consumers [9] - Canada's unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 6.9%, with a net addition of 83,100 jobs, which may influence the Bank of Canada's upcoming monetary policy decisions [10] - The Bank of Korea has paused interest rate cuts, citing significant economic uncertainty from U.S. tariffs [7]

海外宏观周报 美国贸易政策风险再升 证券分析师 | 张璐 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060522100001 | | | ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn | 范城恺 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523010001 FANCHENGKAI146@pingan.com.cn 平安观点： 海外宏观 2025 年 7 月 14 日 宏 观 报 告 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 海外经济政策。1）美国：政策方面，特朗普宣布一系列关税政策：7月 7日，特朗普签署行政令，将"对等关税"暂缓日期由 7月9日推迟至8 月 1 日，同日宣布对来自日本和韩国等 14 个国家的进口产品征收 25% 至 40%不等的关税；7 月 9 日，特朗普宣布对来自巴西和菲律宾等 8个 国家的进口产品征收 20%至 50%不等的关税，同日宣布将对所有进口到 美国的铜征收 50%的关税；7月10日，特朗普宣布将对加拿大商品加征 35%关税。美联储公布 6 月会议纪要显示，官员们在何时恢复降息的问 题上有分歧，大多数美联储官员预计今年晚些时候将恢复降息。美联储 理事沃勒表示，可以考虑 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Italian Foreign Minister suggests that in response to U.S. tariffs, the European Central Bank should consider implementing a new quantitative easing program and interest rate cuts [1] Group 1 - The Italian Foreign Minister's statement highlights the potential economic impact of U.S. tariffs on Europe [1] - The call for a new quantitative easing program indicates a proactive approach to stimulate the European economy [1] - Interest rate cuts are proposed as a measure to counteract the negative effects of tariffs and support economic growth [1]

沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货20790，基差95，升水期货，中性。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周增8565吨至103197吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空减；偏空。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，多空交织，铝价震荡运行。 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 | 现货 昨日现货 | 地方 地 ...

旧金山联储主席戴利在2025年7月11日前后多次就美国经济前景发表观点。 戴利明确表示，2025年仍可能有两次降息，并提到"考虑在秋季实施降息"。 下跌至3320.00站稳后做多，目标3350.00 现货白银 戴利对特朗普政府的关税政策持相对乐观态度，认为其对通胀的冲击可能较预期温和。 她指出，关税可能导致物价水平一次性上涨，但不会显著推高长期通胀预期。这一观点与美联储6月会 议纪要中"关税影响可能被推迟而非消失"的判断部分一致，但更强调企业适应能力。 她提到"秋季实施降息"，可能对应美联储9月或12月会议。这一表述与市场预期（9月降息概率约60%） 基本吻合，但需等待通胀数据验证。 交易策略： 现货黄金 她认为美国通胀正逐步迈向2%的目标，尽管进程较慢，但未出现反弹风险。例如，企业通过协商分摊 关税成本、调整利润空间等方式，减少了终端消费者的价格压力。 美国第一季度GDP环比下降0.5%，消费支出疲软，但劳动力市场保持韧性（6月非农就业增加14.4万， 失业率3.7%）。戴利认为经济"增长和消费放缓但未减弱"，降息旨在预防经济进一步下行而非应对危 机。 美联储6月会议纪要显示，内部对降息存在分歧，但戴利的观 ...