Group 1 - BlackRock raised the rating of US long-term government bonds from "underweight" to "neutral" due to investor expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week [1] - The adjustment reflects a tactical investment stance for the next 6 to 12 months, ending a long-term "underweight" strategy [1] - As of Monday's close, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond fell by 2.3 basis points to 4.034%, marking a four-week decline, although still above last September's low [1] Group 2 - The CME FedWatch tool indicates that investors expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points, adjusting the rate range to 4% - 4.25% [1] - BlackRock downgraded its short-term US Treasury investment stance from "overweight" to "neutral" in response to the anticipated rate cut [1] - The labor market's weakness provides a basis for the rate cut, which could alleviate inflationary pressures, although the current macroeconomic outlook remains "cloudy" with core inflation above target [1] Group 3 - Despite inflation risks, BlackRock maintains a "risk-on" stance, believing that US growth is slowing but resilient, and corporate earnings will remain robust [1] - The anticipated rate cut is expected to support US equities, particularly benefiting growth-oriented themes [1] - BlackRock's long-term strategic allocation remains "underweight" in long-term government bonds, favoring inflation-linked bonds instead [1] Group 4 - The company noted that future macro scenarios could vary; if the labor market remains weak, rate cuts may not alleviate pressure on risk assets, while a rebound in hiring could lead to rising inflation [1] - On the same day, the three major US stock indices closed higher, with the S&P and Nasdaq indices reaching all-time highs [1] - BlackRock views the Federal Reserve's policy decision this week as a significant turning point for global markets, with the potential rate cut supporting US stocks and long-term US Treasuries, while cautioning against rising inflation risks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, highlighting a bullish sentiment in global assets driven by expectations of economic recovery despite mixed economic indicators [1][3][5]. Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. economic data shows a divergence between rising inflation and declining employment, leading to speculation about imminent interest rate cuts [3][5]. - The adjustment of last year's job additions down by over 910,000 indicates that employment is not as strong as previously thought, but does not suggest a chaotic job market [7]. - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 0.35% month-over-month, suggesting persistent inflation, but the underlying causes appear to be more related to internal economic factors rather than tariffs [8]. Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its plan to cut rates by 25 basis points, with recent data providing support for a more dovish stance focused on employment [7][8]. - The article suggests that the Fed's decision-making process is being influenced by the need to balance inflation concerns with employment data [8]. Fiscal Policy and Consumer Wealth - The U.S. federal deficit has decreased slightly compared to the previous year, indicating that fiscal support for the economy remains substantial [9][10]. - Household net worth has reached new highs due to stock market gains, enhancing consumer confidence and spending power, which is crucial for domestic demand [12][13]. Future Economic Outlook - The combination of stable consumer demand and increased corporate investment, particularly in AI, suggests a positive economic outlook leading into 2026 [16]. - The article raises concerns about the potential for inflation to rise if interest rates are cut without effective control measures in place [17]. Policy Implications - The article draws parallels between current economic policies and those of the Nixon era, suggesting that price controls may be implemented to manage inflation while stimulating economic growth [19]. - The potential for price control measures in energy, healthcare, housing, and utilities is highlighted as a strategy to mitigate inflationary pressures [18]. Investment Opportunities - The article suggests that the current environment presents opportunities for investment in sectors favored by government policies, particularly those benefiting from interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar [21]. - The virtual investment portfolio "Alpha Dolphin" has shown strong performance, particularly in Chinese tech stocks, indicating a favorable investment climate under the anticipated economic conditions [24][26].

转自：新华财经 【资讯导读】 •美国参议院投票通过米兰的美联储理事任命 •美国劳工统计局招聘兼职 为CPI数据采集信息 •德银：投资者以创纪录的速度削减美元敞口 •俄总统新闻秘书：俄乌冲突谈判进程陷入暂停 •法国央行下调经济预期 警示政治风险冲击增长 •阿根廷收紧外汇管制 抑制美元需求以稳住比索 【市场资讯】 •美国总统特朗普提名的美联储理事人选米兰已在参议院获得足够多的票数，其任命获得确认，可以赶 上本周的美联储议息会议。 •美国总统特朗普再次表示，美联储主席鲍威尔必须立即降息。 •纳斯达克首席执行官弗里德曼主张为上市公司提供季度报告或半年报告的选择。在此之前，美国总统 特朗普周一再次呼吁停止发布公司季度报告，如果获得批准，此举将标志着美国企业的重大转变。 •德意志银行对ETF的分析显示，海外投资者在购买美国股票和债券时进行货币对冲，正以"前所未有的 速度"大幅削减美元敞口。该行全球外汇研究主管乔治·萨拉维洛斯援引500多只基金的数据指出，这是 本十年来首次，流入购买美国资产的美元对冲型ETF的资金规模超过了非对冲型基金的资金流入。在萨 拉维洛斯看来，这种对冲行为解释了为何在国际投资者再度将资金投入美国资产 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the U.S. Treasury yields have generally declined, with traders predicting a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting [1][2] - The 10-year Treasury yield fell by 2.87 basis points to 4.0356%, while the 2-year yield decreased by 2.10 basis points to 3.5347% [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is estimated at 95.9%, while a 50 basis point cut is at 4.1% according to CME's FedWatch [1] Group 2 - Analysts from Morgan Stanley caution that regardless of whether the Federal Reserve adopts a dovish or hawkish stance, they may remain cautious about committing to a loose monetary path due to uncertain inflation prospects [2] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to have unclear policy guidance, with the dot plot likely lacking a unified direction, preparing the market for "inconsistent signals" [2] - The appointment of new Federal Reserve officials is another focal point for the market, with uncertainty surrounding the participation of Governor Cook and the confirmation of Stephen Moore [2] Group 3 - Former St. Louis Fed President Brad expressed interest in the Fed Chair position, emphasizing the importance of maintaining the dollar's status as a reserve currency and ensuring low and stable inflation [2] - Brad anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut and signals for further easing, suggesting that a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points by the end of the year is reasonable [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to restart the interest rate cut process due to alarming signals from the U.S. job market, with significant attention on future easing paths amid internal pressures and the unclear impact of Trump's trade policies [2][3]. Economic Outlook Changes - Since August, both inflation and employment have been under pressure, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 2.9% year-on-year in August, the highest increase since January, and core CPI at 3.1%, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [3]. - Initial jobless claims reached their highest level since 2021, indicating delays in job placements, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% [3]. - The IMF noted signs of pressure on the U.S. economy, including slowing domestic demand and decelerating job growth, with potential inflation risks stemming from tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [3][4]. Policy Outlook - The FOMC is expected to reassess its economic and federal funds rate outlook, with Wall Street anticipating a slight downward adjustment in the 2025 economic growth forecast and a stable inflation prediction [4]. - Wells Fargo predicts a reduction in the median interest rate forecast for 2025 from a 50 basis point cut to a 75 basis point cut, with a further reduction for 2026 [5]. - The updated "dot plot" will help determine whether the FOMC members favor "quarterly cuts" or "continuous cuts," with a terminal policy rate expected to be between 3.00%-3.25% by the end of 2026 [5]. Interest Rate Expectations - The market widely anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00%-4.25% [6]. - There are indications of potential dissent within the Fed, with some members concerned about rising inflation while others focus on preventing a possible recession [6]. - The futures market shows an 80% probability of a rate cut in October, with expectations for cuts in September, October, and December [6][7]. Future Rate Cut Signals - Analysts suggest that Powell may signal three rate cuts of 25 basis points each in September, October, and December to mitigate risks in the job market [7]. - However, there remains uncertainty regarding future policy directions, which will depend on upcoming inflation and employment data [7].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a broad rally, with major indices closing higher and significant movements in technology stocks, particularly Alphabet, which reached a market capitalization of over $3 trillion [2][4]. Market Performance - On September 15, the three major U.S. indices closed higher: the Dow Jones increased by 0.11%, the S&P 500 rose by 0.47%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.94%, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new closing highs [2][4]. - The S&P 500 saw six sectors decline while five sectors advanced, with consumer staples and healthcare leading the declines, and communication services and consumer discretionary leading the gains [4]. Technology Sector Highlights - Alphabet's stock rose by 4.5%, bringing its market value to $3.04 trillion, making it the fourth U.S. company to surpass the $3 trillion mark, following Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia [4]. - The surge in Alphabet's stock is attributed to the popularity of its Gemini application, which became the most downloaded free app in multiple countries [4][5]. - Tesla's stock increased by 3.56%, following CEO Elon Musk's significant purchase of approximately $1 billion worth of shares, marking his largest purchase to date [5]. Chinese Stocks Performance - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 0.87%, with notable gains in several Chinese companies, including Li Auto, Bilibili, and NIO, which saw increases of nearly 7%, over 6%, and over 4% respectively [5]. Federal Reserve Expectations - Market expectations are high for the Federal Reserve to announce a new round of interest rate cuts during its upcoming meeting, with President Trump predicting a "significant rate cut" [7].

当地时间9月14日至15日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝 森特以及贸易代表格里尔在西班牙马德里举行会谈。双方以两国元首通话重要共识为引领，就双方关注 的经贸问题进行了坦诚、深入、富有建设性的沟通，就以合作方式妥善解决TikTok相关问题、减少投 资障碍、促进有关经贸合作等达成了基本框架共识。双方将就相关成果文件进行磋商，并履行各自国内 批准程序。 中国商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢15日说，关于TikTok问题，中国一贯反对将科技和经贸问 题政治化、工具化、武器化，绝不会以牺牲原则立场、企业利益和国际公平正义为代价，寻求达成任何 协议。中方将坚决维护国家利益和中资企业合法权益，依法依规开展技术出口审批。同时，中国政府充 分尊重企业意愿，支持企业在符合市场原则基础上，开展平等商业谈判。 美股方面，道琼斯指数涨0.11%，标普500指数涨0.47%，纳斯达克综合指数涨0.94%。标普500指数、纳 指创收盘新高。 大型科技股普涨，谷歌涨超4%并成为第四家市值超过3万亿美元的美股上市公司，特斯拉涨超3%，英 伟达则跌0.04%。热门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨 ...

新华财经北京9月16日电圣路易斯联储前主席布拉德周一表示，他上周与美国财长贝森特就出任美联储 主席一职进行了交流，并表示如果条件合适，他对这一职位非常感兴趣。 布拉德目前担任普渡大学Mitch Daniels商学院院长，曾在2008年至2023年期间领导圣路易斯联储。布拉 德表示："如果我们为成功做好了准备，我愿意接受这份工作……成功意味着我们要捍卫美元作为储备 货币的地位，保持低且稳定的通胀，并保护美联储的独立性。" 布拉德表示，他预计FOMC将降息25个基点，并释放进一步宽松的信号，认为市场预计今年年底前累计 降息75个基点是合理的。布拉德对关税-通胀暂时论表示认同，并倾向支持陷入解雇风波的美联储理事 库克。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Group 1 - The U.S. August retail sales month-on-month rate is expected to be 0.3%, down from the previous value of 0.5% [1] - The U.S. August industrial production month-on-month rate is anticipated to be 0%, an improvement from the previous value of -0.1% [2] - The U.S. crude oil inventory change for the week ending September 12 is expected to show an increase from the previous value of 3.939 million barrels [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 93.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the policy rate range to 4%–4.25% [4] - The Bank of Japan is anticipated to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% and keep the 10-year government bond yield target unchanged [5]

马斯克增持近10亿美元，特斯拉大涨超3%。 *三大股指全线飘红，道指逼近46000点； *中长期美债收益率走低，10年期美债报4.04%； *纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨近0.9%。 周一美股全线上扬，中美在西班牙马德里举行经贸会谈，市场等待即将召开的美联储政策会议，马斯克 增持特斯拉推动股价上升，带动标普和纳指再创历史新高。 截至收盘， 道指涨49.23点，涨幅为0.11%，报45883.45点，纳指涨0.94%，报22348.75点，标普500指数 涨0.47%，报6615.31点，首次站上6600点关口。 据新华社报道，当地时间9月14日至15日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、 美国财政部长贝森特以及贸易代表格里尔在西班牙马德里举行会谈。双方以两国元首通话重要共识为引 领，就双方关注的经贸问题进行了坦诚、深入、富有建设性的沟通，就以合作方式妥善解决TikTok相 关问题、减少投资障碍、促进有关经贸合作等达成了基本框架共识。双方将就相关成果文件进行磋商， 并履行各自国内批准程序。何立峰表示，中方维护自身正当权益的决心坚定不移，将坚决维护国家利益 和海外中资企业的合法权益。 对于TikTok ...