Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The Sino-US trade negotiation has made some progress, but the situation exceeding market expectations has not occurred, and market optimism has declined [2]. - The PTA supply side has slightly shrunk, polyester production has remained stable, and the polyester load has been maintained above 90%. The export of domestic polyester remains optimistic [2]. - Although there have been rumors that polyester will fight against involution, due to the lack of more information on anti - involution in the meeting, the PTA processing fee has been compressed to less than 200. Industry profits are still constrained by over - capacity due to new device commissioning [2]. - Despite the end of the "Golden September and Silver October", against the background of the easing of the Sino - US trade war, export demand may improve. Recently, downstream weaving has performed well, and the current peak season is expected to last until November [2]. - Attention should be paid to whether the reduction of Sino - US tariffs can further stimulate domestic exports. The costs of bottle chips and short fibers follow [2][3]. Group 3: Summary of Related Data Price Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 4535 to 4510, a decrease of 25 [2]. - MEG domestic price decreased from 4147 to 4106, a decrease of 41 [2]. - PTA closing price increased from 4570 to 4586, an increase of 16 [2]. - MEG closing price decreased from 4032 to 4018, a decrease of 14 [2]. - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6430 to 6405, a decrease of 25 [2]. - Short - fiber basis increased from 140 to 174, an increase of 34 [2]. - 11 - 12 spread decreased from 28 to 46 (the description in the text may have an error, assuming it is a decrease of 18) [2]. - Polyester staple fiber cash - flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6 [2]. - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5400 [2]. - The price difference between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber decreased from 1030 to 1005, a decrease of 25 [2]. - East China water bottle chip price decreased from 5714 to 5698, a decrease of 16 [2]. - Hot - filling polyester bottle chip price decreased from 5714 to 5698, a decrease of 16 [2]. - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price decreased from 5814 to 5798, a decrease of 16 [2]. - Outer - market water bottle chip price remained unchanged at 760 [2]. - Bottle chip spot processing fee increased from 447 to 466, an increase of 19.11 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10320 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3890 to 3915, an increase of 25 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16300 [2]. - Cotton 328 price decreased from 14545 to 14540, a decrease of 5 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1539 to 1557, an increase of 18.46 [2]. - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price increased from 7010 to 7020, an increase of 10 [2]. - Hollow short - fiber 6 - 15D cash - flow increased from 543 to 588, an increase of 45.11 [2]. - Primary low - melting - point short - fiber price increased from 7420 to 7480, an increase of 60 [2]. Market Conditions - In the short - fiber market, the price of polyester staple fiber production factories has remained stable, the price of traders has declined, downstream buyers have purchased as needed, and the market transaction has been tepid. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market is between 6160 - 6510 (cash on the spot, tax - included, self - pickup), in the North China market is between 6280 - 6630 (cash on the spot, tax - included, delivered), and in the Fujian market is between 6170 - 6400 (cash on the spot, tax - included, delivered) [2]. - In the bottle chip market, the mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is between 5680 - 5820 yuan/ton, with the average price decreasing by 15 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. PTA and bottle chip futures have fluctuated weakly in a narrow range, the market trading atmosphere has been cold, the purchasing willingness of downstream terminals has been low, and the market center of gravity has shifted down [2]. Operating Rates and Sales Ratios - The direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 93.90% to 94.40%, an increase of 0.01 [3]. - The polyester staple fiber sales ratio increased from 43.00% to 49.00%, an increase of 6.00% [3]. - The polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 63.50% [3]. - The recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 51.50% to 51.00%, a decrease of 0.01 [3].

Core Viewpoint - Geely Galaxy is experiencing significant sales growth, with expectations for continued strong performance in the coming year, driven by new product launches and strategic market positioning [2][6][9]. Production Capacity and Strategy - Geely Galaxy's sales reached 127,000 units in October, a 101% year-on-year increase, contributing to the group's revised annual sales target of 3 million vehicles [6][10]. - The company is repurposing the former SAIC-GM North Factory in Shenyang to supplement production capacity, as existing capacity is currently insufficient to meet demand [3][4]. - Geely has decided against building new factories, focusing instead on internal upgrades and collaborations to optimize existing production lines [13][15]. Product Development and Market Positioning - The Galaxy series, initially launched as a product line focused on new energy vehicles, has expanded significantly with the introduction of models like the Galaxy L7, E5, and others, which have gained popularity due to competitive pricing and features [6][8][9]. - The Galaxy Star Wish model has become a best-seller, achieving sales of 205,000 units in the first half of the year, positioning it as a market leader in its segment [8][9]. International Expansion - Geely's exports of new energy vehicles surged by 214% in the first nine months of the year, with significant growth in European and Latin American markets [15][16]. - The company is implementing a multi-brand strategy in international markets, with plans to establish a presence in the UK and other regions, leveraging local partnerships for distribution [16][17]. Future Outlook - Geely's management expresses optimism about the Galaxy's sales prospects for the next year, supported by a robust pipeline of new models and strategic market initiatives [9][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint of the Report - The plastic industry is expected to remain in a weak and volatile state. Although the cost increase and macro - warming have pushed the plastic price to rebound, the plastic itself lacks upward momentum. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented, and the current peak season is not as good as expected, with weak downstream purchasing willingness [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 31, the restart of overhauled devices such as Lianyungang Petrochemical's HDPE Phase I increased the plastic operating rate to around 85%, which is at a neutral level. The PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37%. The agricultural film is in the peak season, but the packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level, and the destocking has accelerated slightly at the end of the month. The cost of crude oil is oscillating. New production capacities have been put into trial operation or production. Although the demand for agricultural film is expected to increase, the current peak season is not satisfactory, and the downstream purchasing willingness is weak [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastic 2601 contract decreased by 1.41% to close at 6899 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average. The trading volume increased by 15,690 lots to 524,390 lots [2] - **Spot**: The PE spot market mostly declined, with the price range from - 50 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6890 - 7370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9050 - 9880 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7160 - 8090 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On October 31, the restart of overhauled devices increased the plastic operating rate to around 85%, which is at a neutral level [4] - **Demand**: As of the week of October 31, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37%. The agricultural film is in the peak season, but the overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - **Inventory**: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Friday decreased by 20,000 tons to 675,000 tons, 45,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level [4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 01 contract dropped to $64/barrel, and the ethylene prices in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia remained flat at $755/ton and $765/ton respectively [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA prices rapidly declined due to no clear news of "anti-involution" in the PTA industry. Despite the continuous recovery of crude oil prices, PTA prices only rebounded slightly before. Although the overall load of domestic PTA plants decreased due to low processing fees, the polyester industry's profits were still constrained by overcapacity pressure caused by new production capacity and the commissioning of overseas plants. With the cost support provided by rising crude oil prices, PTA prices rebounded rapidly after a long period of low - level operation. The current downstream polyester operating rate remained above 91%, with demand slightly exceeding expectations and recent polyester sales generally high. Also, with positive news from China - US economic and trade negotiations, the market sold on positive news [2]. Group 3: Summary of Data Changes Spot and Futures Prices - PTA spot price remained unchanged at 4535, MEG inner - market price decreased by 5 to 4147. PTA closing price dropped by 66 to 4570, and MEG closing price decreased by 68 to 4032 [2]. Short - fiber - related Data - 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price decreased by 10 to 6430, short - fiber basis decreased by 11 to 140, 11 - 12 spread increased by 8 to 28, and polyester staple fiber cash flow increased by 6 to 246. The price difference between 1.4D direct - spinning and imitation large - chemical fiber decreased by 10 to 1030 [2]. Bottle - chip - related Data - Polyester bottle - chip prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets decreased, with the average price down 5 yuan/ton. The processing fee for bottle - chip spot decreased by 7.33 to 447 [2]. Yarn - related Data - T32S pure - polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10320, and its processing fee increased by 10 to 3890. The price of polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S remained unchanged at 16300, and its profit increased by 2.85 to 1539 [2]. Other Fiber - related Data - The price of primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) fiber increased by 15 to 7010, and the cash flow of hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D increased by 16.68 to 543. The price of primary low - melting - point staple fiber increased by 10 to 7420 [2]. Operating Rates and Sales Ratios - Direct - spinning short - fiber load (weekly) decreased by 0.01 to 94.40%, polyester staple fiber sales ratio increased by 2% to 43.00%, polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 63.50%, and recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased by 0.01 to 51.00% [3].

PPI 回升周期：主导力量、政策基础 和前景展望 [Table_FirstAuthor] 解运亮 宏观首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521040002 联系电话：010-83326858 邮 箱：xieyunliang@cindasc.com 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱： mailinyue@cindasc.com 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 10 月 28 日 证券研究报告 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 深度报告 | ] [Table_A 解运亮 uthor宏观首席 分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521040002 | | 联系电话：010-83326858 | | 邮 箱： xieyunliang@cindasc.com | 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱： mailinyue@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2) Core Viewpoints - PTA prices saw a rapid afternoon rally due to rumors of an "anti-involution" policy in the PTA industry. Despite rising crude oil prices, PTA prices had only rebounded slightly. With cost support from rising crude oil and policy expectations, PTA prices rebounded after long - term low - level operation. The downstream polyester industry's demand is slightly better than expected, and overseas demand for Chinese textile and clothing products may recover after positive signals from China - US economic and trade negotiations [2]. - For ethylene glycol, the inventory at East China ports remains low, and the arrival volume at ports is limited. However, domestic device production and the return of coal - based ethylene glycol devices are pressuring prices. As the polyester peak season is ending and the crude oil fundamentals are weakening, the polyester industry is expected to operate weakly [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **INE Crude Oil**: Price dropped from 462.7 yuan/barrel on October 28, 2025, to 462.6 yuan/barrel on October 29, 2025, a decrease of 0.10 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA - SC**: Price increased from 1251.5 yuan/ton to 1274.2 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.73 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price rose from 814 to 818, an increase of 4; PX - naphtha spread widened from 236 to 249, an increase of 13 [2]. - **PTA**: The main futures price rose from 4614 yuan/ton to 4636 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton; the spot price remained unchanged at 4535 yuan/ton; the spot processing fee decreased from 180.7 yuan/ton to 170.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.6 yuan/ton; the disk processing fee increased from 259.7 yuan/ton to 261.1 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.4 yuan/ton; the main basis improved from (81) to (76), an increase of 5; the number of PTA warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 48579 [2]. - **MEG**: The main futures price rose from 4069 yuan/ton to 4100 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan/ton; the MEG - naphtha spread decreased from (121.59) yuan/ton to (121.78) yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2 yuan/ton; the MEG domestic price decreased from 4167 to 4152, a decrease of 15; the main basis decreased from 83 to 78, a decrease of 5 [2]. - **Industry Chain Operating Rates**: PX operating rate remained at 86.21%, PTA operating rate increased from 79.46% to 80.09%, an increase of 0.63%, MEG operating rate remained at 64.41%, and polyester load remained at 89.28% [2]. - **Polyester Product Data**: For polyester filament, POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F, and DTY150D/48F prices remained unchanged; POY, FDY, and DTY cash flows increased by 5; the filament sales rate decreased from 63% to 48%, a decrease of 15%. For polyester staple fiber, the price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased from 6445 to 6440, a decrease of 5; the staple fiber cash flow remained at 272; the staple fiber sales rate remained at 43%. For polyester chips, the semi - bright chip price increased from 5560 to 5565, an increase of 5; the chip cash flow increased from (63) to (53), an increase of 10; the chip sales rate decreased from 57% to 37%, a decrease of 20% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2]

Economic Overview - The current economic environment in China is characterized by a significant restructuring phase, affecting various sectors and individuals alike [1][5][19] - Economic cycles such as the pig cycle, capacity cycle, technology cycle, and real estate cycle are all peaking simultaneously, leading to widespread financial strain among the populace [3][5] Industry Insights - The automotive industry exemplifies the current state of economic "involution," with severe overcapacity and a mismatch between production and consumer demand [7][9] - Over 400 automotive companies in China have a total design capacity exceeding 35 million vehicles, far surpassing domestic demand, resulting in many smaller firms exiting the market [7][9] - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a similar trend, with companies facing overcapacity, weak demand, and intense competition, leading to widespread layoffs across various roles [9][10] Global Expansion - In response to domestic challenges, many companies are looking to expand overseas, with significant investment growth in countries like Vietnam and Indonesia [11][13] - Successful examples include companies like CATL, which have localized their operations abroad to mitigate trade barriers and better serve local markets [13] Workforce Adaptation - The job market is evolving, with a notable increase in demand for new roles such as AI trainers and carbon neutrality managers, reflecting the need for skill upgrades among workers [15][17] - The competition among cities is intensifying, with emerging regions like the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle attracting young talent due to their focus on industrial ecology and supportive policies [17] Policy Support - The Chinese government is implementing policies to support "specialized, refined, and innovative" enterprises, enhancing R&D tax deductions to stimulate innovation [17] - The shift in focus from resource allocation to efficiency and quality is emphasized as a critical factor for both companies and individuals to thrive in the changing economic landscape [17][19]

Core Viewpoint - The UK government is seeking to establish a "steel alliance" with the US and EU to protect their steel industries from the impacts of global overcapacity, reflecting the struggles of the UK economy in the post-Brexit trade environment [1][2][3] Group 1: Steel Industry Challenges - The UK steel industry is facing a crisis, with half of the steel companies effectively under state control and the remaining ones in precarious situations [3] - The EU plans to impose tariffs of up to 50% on imported steel, which poses a significant threat to the UK steel sector, as 78% of UK steel exports go to the EU, valued at approximately £3 billion annually [2][3] - The UK government announced a £2.5 billion plan to support the domestic steel industry, focusing on maintaining global competitiveness and transitioning to greener production methods [3] Group 2: Economic Implications - The proposed "steel alliance" aims to impose common tariffs on imports from outside the group while allowing zero or reduced tariffs for member countries [4] - The EU's steel tariffs are seen as a measure to protect the European steel industry and related jobs, with Germany acknowledging shared interests with the UK in addressing global steel overcapacity [5][6] - The EU steel industry is facing a dual challenge of enhancing competitiveness and reducing carbon emissions, with significant declines in revenue reported, particularly in Germany [6] Group 3: Global Context and Trade Dynamics - The global steel overcapacity reached 600 million tons last year, projected to increase to 721 million tons by 2027, with the EU importing steel from various countries including Turkey, South Korea, and China [6][7] - The US has expressed concerns over Chinese steel production capacity, indicating a need for coordinated efforts among Western nations to address this issue [6] - The EU's steel tariffs have drawn criticism from other sectors, such as the automotive industry, which fears inflationary impacts due to increased steel prices [9][10]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $18 million, at the high end of the guidance range of $10 to $20 million, with year-to-date adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations at $87 million, up from $26 million in the same period last year [4][14] - Net sales reached $399 million, a 1% increase year-over-year, driven by a 3% increase in paperboard shipment volumes, partially offset by lower market pricing [13][14] - Net loss from continuing operations was $54 million, or $3.34 per diluted share, primarily due to a $48 million non-cash goodwill impairment [13][14] - The company generated $34 million in cash from operations and approximately $3.5 million in free cash flows during the quarter [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company successfully completed all three planned major maintenance outages for 2025, with costs of $24 million for the Lewiston outage and $16 million for the Augusta outage [4][5] - Fixed cost reduction initiatives are tracking to around $50 million in savings for the year, exceeding the original estimate of $30 to $40 million [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted that a competitor is ramping up new SBS capacity, potentially adding up to 10% additional supply to the industry, which could lead to utilization rates dropping to the low 80% range by year-end [6][7] - Current industry oversupply is primarily limited to SBS, but it is impacting other paperboard substrates, with pricing correlations historically observed between SBS, CUK, and CRB [9][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is exploring adding CUK swing capability to one of its SBS machines, with an estimated capital requirement of approximately $50 million and a projected return of over 20% [11][12] - The company remains focused on defending its SBS market share and maintaining a strong balance sheet, with a target leverage ratio in the 1 to 2 times range and cross-cycle EBITDA margins of 13 to 14% [19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term fundamentals of the paperboard market, emphasizing the demand for sustainable and renewable packaging solutions [19] - The company expects adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 to be between $13 to $23 million, anticipating slightly lower paperboard shipments due to seasonality [16][18] Other Important Information - The company repurchased $2 million of shares, bringing the total to $20 million against a $100 million authorization [15] - Initial assumptions for 2026 include revenue of around $1.45 to $1.55 billion and a capacity utilization rate in the mid-80% range [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Decision to hold the CUK swing capacity project - The decision to hold the project is due to prioritizing a strong balance sheet and focusing on running SBS mills, with a target leverage ratio in the 1 to 2 times range [23] Question: Market outlook for SBS and import relief - Management is hopeful for a net capacity reduction of 350,000 tons in the first half of 2026, with some signs of reduced European imports [25] Question: Maintenance schedule for 2026 - The cost for maintenance in 2026 is expected to be similar to 2025 levels, with specific schedules to be finalized and communicated in February [27] Question: Incremental strength in shipments and product categories - The company saw strength in food service sales, with optimism from customers and potential import relief contributing to stronger demand [33] Question: Working capital improvements for 2026 - The target for working capital improvements of $20 million will primarily focus on inventory reductions, expected to be achieved in the second half of the year [39]

Core Viewpoint - The PTA market is experiencing a rebound due to expectations of production cuts amid low processing fees, despite a reality of ample supply [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The PTA spot supply is currently abundant, with 2.7 million tons of new PTA capacity in East China starting trial production, leading to a fluctuation in the PTA spot basis around -80 to -85 yuan/ton [1]. - The upcoming PTA industry conference is expected to boost market sentiment, as major suppliers are anticipated to discuss potential production cuts [1][3]. - As of October 27, the average processing fee for PTA in October is 154 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15% month-on-month, indicating significant production losses for PTA companies [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - An increase in PTA maintenance is predicted; however, the effect on the market may be limited due to the relatively sufficient supply of PTA [3][5]. - The new PTA capacity is expected to add supply pressure, especially as the demand season comes to an end, leading to a likely transition from inventory reduction to accumulation in November [5]. - The market sentiment is currently pessimistic for November, reflected in the basis for transactions being -70 yuan/ton [5]. Group 3: Production Cut Implications - The decision on production cuts will be crucial in determining whether PTA inventory accumulates in the short term [6]. - If PTA companies actively reduce production in response to low processing fees, it may prevent inventory accumulation and support PTA prices [6]. - However, if the production cuts are insufficient, the current supply surplus will likely keep the PTA spot basis weak, leading to continued registration of PTA futures [6].