Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of domestic demand and building a strong domestic market as the top priority for next year's economic tasks [1][2] - A new "urban and rural residents' income increase plan" was proposed, which is expected to have stronger binding force and accountability [1][2] - The current economic challenge is characterized by weak demand, with industrial inventories reaching 6.82 trillion yuan and accounts receivable at 27.69 trillion yuan as of October [2] Group 2 - Investment has shown negative growth, with fixed asset investment declining by 1.7% year-on-year from January to October, a situation not seen in decades [2] - The conference aims to "stop the decline and stabilize investment," highlighting the need for consumption to drive economic growth [2][5] - The proposed income increase plan is crucial as it will be treated as a legal obligation, requiring synchronization with national economic growth and labor productivity improvements [3] Group 3 - The importance of technological innovation in enhancing labor productivity was emphasized, noting that there is significant potential for improvement compared to developed countries [3] - Addressing residents' concerns about spending, such as housing, pension, and healthcare issues, is essential for boosting consumption [3][4] - The conference called for the removal of unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector, particularly in housing, automotive, and healthcare, to unleash consumption potential [4] Group 4 - A shift in macroeconomic management from "loose regulation" to "active and effective regulation" reflects a deeper understanding of economic control [5] - The need for a favorable social environment for consumers was highlighted, with suggestions for government investment to enhance public confidence in consumption [5] - The transition of the income increase plan from a soft target to a hard accountability measure is expected to lead to tangible results in consumption and economic recovery next year [5]

科技股或将继续担纲主线 2025年以来，行情主要由科技股搭台唱戏，其余板块多数涨幅平平，新旧消费、公共设施、房地产等指 数表现不佳，不仅难寻超额收益，不少个股甚至跌幅较大，个别主题基金也在慢牛中折损净值。 行情步入年末，当下已经来到跨年布局时点。多位基金经理指出，科技股或将继续担纲行情主线，但明 年的行情或将更加均衡，顺周期板块、消费板块等被"冷落"的公司投资机遇凸显；尤其是部分经历供给 侧改革的公司，受益于产业出清，或将作为新的高股息资产方向。 虽然看好科技板块是公募基金的共识，但也有基金经理认为，明年的行情或许更加均衡。 永赢基金权益投资部总经理王乾指出，展望2026年，市场风格可能更为均衡，大概率不会重演"一边 倒"的极端风格。 王乾认为，对于高位的科技成长类板块，市场对明年降息周期已计入较多，若后续美联储降息节奏低于 预期，流动性压力可能将阶段性加大。同时，截至三季报公募TMT(科技、媒体、通讯)仓位已达到历史 高位，尽管产业趋势依然十分明确，但板块波动率可能阶段性放大，部分资金存在兑现需求。 "而对于低位的顺周期、价值类板块，尽管国内存在产能周期底部回升、PPI降幅收窄、上市公司现金流 改善等积极变 ...

中央经济工作会议即将召开。参考历史经验，历年中央经济工作会议所提及的重点领域大多对次年市场主线有所指引。回顾2012年以来历次中央 经济工作会议，不仅其整体定调会对经济预期和风险偏好有重要影响，且强调的重点领域大多都会反映在次年的市场主线上，典型如13-15年 的"调结构"、"大众创业、万众创新"，16-17年的"供给侧改革"，以及20-21年的"自主可控"、"双碳"。 去年中央经济工作会议中重点强调的"新质生产力&反内卷"，也成为今年A股两条最重要的主线。 本文来源：尧望后势。 *免责声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议 *风险提示：股市有风险，入市需谨慎 | 会议年份 | 重点提及领域政策原文 | 关键词 | | | 次年涨跌幅前五的一级行业 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 加快调整产业结构,提高产业整体素质。实现尊重经济规律、有质量、有效益、可持续的发展 | 调结构、科技创新、 | 传媒 | 计算机 | 环保 | 电子 | 家用电器 | | 2012 | 关键是深化产业结构战略性调整。注重发挥企业家才能,加快科技创 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 建材ETF（159745）跟踪的是建筑材料指数（931009），该指数从市场中选取涉及水泥、玻璃、陶瓷等 建筑材料生产与销售业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映建筑材料行业相关上市公司证券的整体 表现。 中信建投指出，通过供给侧改革，水泥行业采取错峰生产、淘汰落后产能等措施，新建产能必须以等量 或更大规模的已淘汰产能置换。自2016年后，政策推动下水泥行业错峰生产逐渐常态化，行业联盟通过 自律公约确保政策落实，价格稳定性提高。2015年后水泥价格大幅提升，行业盈利能力改善，ROE较长 时间保持较高水平，行业利润从2015年的330亿元提升至2018年的1546亿元。供需结构改善带来价格和 利润回升，行业集中度也有所提升。 ...

点评报告 2025 年 12 月 10 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 第一创业证券研究所 6 证券研究报告 一、宏观经济组： 根据新闻，美国 SpaceX 正推进 IPO 计划，拟募资远超 300 亿美元。该公司目标整 体估值约 1.5 万亿美元，并计划最快于 2026 年中后期上市。SpaceX 预计将利用部 分 IPO 募资开发太空数据中包括购买运行所需芯片。我们认为今年上半年 SpaceX 的融资估值才 4 千亿美元，如果真的按 1.5 万亿美元 IPO 成功则将对 A 股的商业航 天领域带来较大的正面刺激。因为无论是 AI、还是人形机器人等，都是美国市场 估值的大幅上涨然后带动国内产业链和资本市场跟随，因此我们继续看好国内商业 航天板块的投资机会。 精测电子(300567.SZ）近日公告称，子公司上海精测及公司其他合并范围内子公司 连续十二月内与同一客户签订了多份销售合同，主要向客户出售膜厚系列产品、OCD 设备、电子束设备等半导体量检测设备，应用场景主要为先进存储和 HBM 等相关领 域，合同累计金额达到 4.33 亿元。而今年上半年精测电子的半导体板块收入总体 才有 5. ...

由行业龙头联合设立的平台公司悄然成立，宣告着中国光伏上游供给侧改革迈出关键一步。 一家注册资本达30亿元的公司——北京光和谦成科技有限责任公司在12月9日成立，专门服务于多晶硅 行业的战略整合。 价格失速与行业共识 在行业陷入"内卷"之前，多晶硅也曾经历高价周期。但当价格从2022年每吨均价超过29.5万的历史高位 一路俯冲，跌破部分企业成本线时，问题开始凸显。 到了2025年三季度，为遏制恶性价格战，行业头部企业自发达成了"产品价格不得低于成本价"的共识。 这一自律行动迅速传导至市场，中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会发布数据显示，2025年7月16日当周， 多晶硅N型复投料成交均价为4.17万元/吨，周环比上涨12.4%。 然而，短期价格修复治标不治本。根据硅业分会的数据，当前多晶硅市场供需双弱的格局并未根本改 变，高库存压力持续存在。 价格虽有所回升，但仍徘徊在5万元/吨附近，对许多高成本产能而言，这一水平依然难以覆盖成本。 更深层次的问题在于，产能的绝对过剩并未解决。行业龙头们认识到，仅仅靠口头协议约束价格难以持 久。必须在产能层面进行实质性的整合与出清，才能为行业健康、可持续发展奠定基础。 市场化收储与价 ...

朱共山谈到，好材料先行造，好电池用好材料。目前，我国硅烷产量一年60万55万吨。 专题：2025《中国企业家》影响力企业家年会 12月5日-7日，由《中国企业家》杂志社主办的"2025（第二十三届）《中国企业家》影响力企业家年 会"（原中国企业领袖年会）在北京举行，主题为"涌现·无限——共创智能商业新形态"。全球绿色能源 理事会主席，亚洲光伏行业协会主席，协鑫集团创始人朱共山出席并演讲。 责任编辑：李昂 新浪声明：所有会议实录均为现场速记整理，未经演讲者审阅，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目 的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。 朱共山谈到，好材料先行造，好电池用好材料。目前，我国硅烷产量一年60万55万吨。 他提到，随着供给侧改革以后，我国有一部分的光伏要减产、减量，说明正在做硅碳负极材料。"硅碳 负极75万一吨，我们会迅速的把价格打下来。让我们电动车和储能进行使用。" 他提到，随着供给侧改革以后，我国有一部分的光伏要减产、减量，说明正在做硅碳负极材料。"硅碳 负极75万一吨，我们会迅速的把价格打下来。让我们电动车和储能进行使用。" 此外，朱共山谈到了ESG，他表示，旧模式已经一去不复返，单纯依靠资源的 ...

Macro Economic Overview - China's exports showed a short-term rebound in November, exceeding market expectations, driven by improvements in exports to the EU, Latin America, Japan, South Korea, and Africa, while exports to the US and ASEAN remained weak [2] - The semiconductor exports benefited from the global AI boom, maintaining a high growth rate, reflecting China's ongoing technological advancements [2] - Imports slightly improved due to processing trade, but general trade continued to decline due to weak domestic demand [2] Global Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,765, down 1.23% for the day but up 28.44% year-to-date [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.54% to 3,924, with a year-to-date increase of 17.08% [3] - The US markets saw a decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.45% and the S&P 500 down 0.35% [3] Automotive Industry Insights - The Chinese automotive industry is expected to see retail and wholesale sales reach historical highs in 2025, with a more complex landscape anticipated in 2026 due to the phasing out of subsidies [6][7] - Despite challenges from subsidy reductions, retail sales are expected to remain stable, with wholesale volumes projected to grow by 2.9% in 2026 [7] - The competition in the automotive sector is expected to intensify, with new model releases at historical highs and potential price increases in battery costs impacting profit margins [7] Insurance Sector Analysis - The recent adjustment in risk factors for insurance companies aims to encourage long-term equity holdings, potentially releasing a minimum capital of 30.8 billion yuan [9][10] - The adjustment is expected to enhance the capital efficiency of insurance investments in A-shares compared to H-shares, benefiting major players like China Ping An and China Life [11] - The insurance sector maintains a "buy" rating, with recommended stocks including China Ping An, China Life, and AIA Group [12] Pharmaceutical Industry Developments - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has risen by 60.9% year-to-date, outperforming the MSCI China Index [13] - The recent release of the basic medical insurance directory supports innovation, with 114 new drugs added, including 50 innovative drugs [13][14] - The commercial insurance directory's introduction is seen as a significant step towards expanding China's commercial health insurance landscape [14][15]

Economic Goals and Strategies - The 2026 economic work will maintain high target settings to ensure sustainable high-quality development, balancing "hard power" and "soft power" while optimizing resource utilization[3][19] - The growth target for 2026 is expected to remain high, reflecting the resilience of economic growth and guiding positive societal expectations[4][19] Hard and Soft Power Development - The enhancement of national comprehensive strength requires a balance between economic, technological, and defense "hard power" and cultural, institutional, and diplomatic "soft power"[5][20] - Policies supporting the development of "soft power" are anticipated during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, focusing on quality cultural products and services[5][20] Supply-Side Reforms and Employment - The new round of supply-side reforms will focus on optimizing supply and utilizing existing capacity, addressing "overcapacity" as a resource to be developed[7][24] - Emphasis on "stabilizing employment" as a priority, with policies aimed at creating new job opportunities and addressing structural unemployment among youth[9][29] Policy Implementation and Coordination - Effective policy implementation is crucial, requiring sustained efforts over time to ensure that policies benefit individuals and businesses[10][30] - The focus on policy synergy emphasizes the need for new policies to align with existing ones, avoiding conflicts and ensuring comprehensive implementation[11][31] Domestic Market Strengthening - The domestic market must not only be large but also resilient, with a focus on enhancing internal demand and ensuring supply chain security[12][35] - Building a strong domestic market involves diversifying supply and fostering innovation to make consumption a leading force in domestic demand growth[12][35] Social Welfare and Living Standards - Continuous improvement of living standards is essential, with a focus on social security mechanisms to provide a safety net for citizens[13][36] - The government aims to enhance overall living quality while addressing specific local needs through grassroots initiatives[13][36] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include fiscal and monetary policies falling short of expectations, unexpected downturns in the real estate market, and complex external environments[14][37][38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the macro - atmosphere is generally warm. The Fed's interest - rate cut cycle is in the "second half", and China's policies are expected to be positive as it is the beginning of the "15th Five - Year Plan". However, demand still lacks highlights, and supply becomes the key variable. Raw materials face downward pressure, steel prices will fluctuate within a range, and there will be a differentiation between finished products and raw materials [1][2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 2025 Review 1.1 Market Review - Steel prices fluctuated in a "down - up - down" pattern with a small amplitude. The first decline was due to overseas tariff policies and cost reduction, the rise in July was from anti - involution, and the second decline was from the game between strong expectations and weak reality. The spread between the high and low points of the weighted closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils was only about 500 yuan [5]. - The average prices of coking coal and coke dropped significantly, with an annual average decline of over 25%. The average price of iron ore decreased by 8 US dollars/ton (6.88% decline), and the average prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased by about 300 yuan/ton (about 8.5% decline). The cost center of steel products moved down [9]. 1.2 Industrial Pattern - **Demand**: Domestic consumption of crude steel continued to decline, but steel and billet exports maintained high growth. From January to October, the cumulative apparent demand for crude steel decreased by 6.51% year - on - year, steel exports increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and net exports increased by 653 tons. The cumulative export of billets from January to October was 11.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.27 million tons [15]. - **Supply**: The consumption of scrap steel and the output of crude steel declined. From January to October, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of pig iron and crude steel output were - 1.8% and - 3.9% respectively. The consumption of scrap steel decreased by 13.3% year - on - year. The output of rebar decreased by 4.8 million tons ( - 2.0% growth rate), and the output of hot - rolled coils increased by 9.8 million tons (5.30% growth rate) [19][23][27]. - **Raw Materials**: The supply of iron ore and coking coal slightly declined, and inventories decreased slightly compared to the beginning of the year. From January to October, the output of iron ore concentrate decreased by 3.70%, and imports increased by 0.62%. The supply of coking coal changed little year - on - year, with domestic production increasing by 1.17% and imports decreasing by 4.73%. The combined inventory of 247 sample steel mills and port trading mines decreased by about 10.65 million tons compared to the beginning of the year, and the coking coal and coke inventory decreased by about 5.5 million tons [31][32]. 2026 Outlook 2.1 Overseas Macroeconomy - The Fed's interest - rate cut cycle is in the "second half". After restarting rate cuts in September and October 2025, it is expected to cut rates again in March and June 2026, bringing the federal funds rate to 3% - 3.25%, providing more room and autonomy for China's monetary policy [40]. 2.2 Domestic Macroeconomy - 2026 is the beginning of the "15th Five - Year Plan", with expected positive policy tones. Boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand may be the key focus [45]. 2.3 Infrastructure Demand - Since the second half of 2025, infrastructure investment growth has declined significantly. Policy tools such as new policy - based financial instruments and increased local government debt quotas have been introduced. Policy effects may be gradually released at the end of 2025 and early 2026, and infrastructure investment is expected to remain stable in 2026 [49]. 2.4 Real Estate Demand - In 2025, real estate data continued to decline. The real estate development model is changing from an incremental to a stock market. In 2026, real estate is expected to remain weak, with an estimated 10% decline in real estate investment and a continued decline in steel consumption for real estate [54]. 2.5 Manufacturing Demand - Since the second half of 2025, the monthly investment growth rate in the manufacturing industry has turned negative, with significant industry differentiation. In 2026, manufacturing investment is still under pressure, but industry differentiation will be severe [58]. 2.6 Import and Export Demand - In 2025, despite anti - dumping and trade wars, steel exports maintained growth due to changes in export destinations and varieties. In 2026, although challenges remain, steel exports are expected to remain high due to corporate expansion overseas and adjustment of export structures [60][62]. 2.7 Supply - In 2026, policy influence on the steel supply side may increase. The "15th Five - Year Plan" emphasizes carbon emission control, and it is possible to restrict steel production through carbon emissions, which may become the main trading logic in the market [66][69]. 2.8 Raw Materials - **Coking Coal**: In 2026, domestic coking coal production may be regulated according to demand. Mongolian coking coal imports are expected to increase by about 7 million tons [74]. - **Iron Ore**: Overseas iron ore supply is expected to increase by about 72 million tons in 2026, while domestic production will remain stable. The supply of overseas iron ore projects is progressing faster than domestic ones [87]. 3. Outlook - Macroscopically, the Fed's interest - rate cut is in the "second half", and China's policies are expected to be positive. Industry - wise, demand lacks highlights, supply is the key variable, and raw materials face downward pressure. Steel prices will fluctuate within a range, and there will be a differentiation between finished products and raw materials. Opportunities in going long on steel and short on iron ore can be considered [88][89][91].