Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key stocks in the building materials sector, including Yao Pi Glass, Yinlong Co., Pona Co., San Ke Tree, and Bei Xin Building Materials [7]. Core Insights - The building materials sector has experienced a decline of 1.61% from January 12 to January 16, 2026, with cement prices dropping by 1.96% and glass manufacturing down by 5.42% [10]. - The People's Bank of China has lowered various structural monetary policy tool rates by 0.25 percentage points, indicating a focus on stabilizing economic growth and reasonable price recovery [1]. - The report highlights a potential recovery in municipal engineering projects due to improved government debt policies, which may accelerate the implementation of municipal pipeline and seismic isolation projects [1]. - The glass fiber market shows strong demand, particularly in wind energy, with expectations for continued growth in high-end demand [1]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of January 16, 2026, the national cement price index is 347.08 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.7% from the previous week, with a total cement output of 2.645 million tons, down 2.67% [15]. - The cement clinker kiln capacity utilization rate is at 40.7%, down 2.83 percentage points from last week, indicating a shift towards a traditional off-season as the Spring Festival approaches [15][28]. Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass as of January 15, 2026, is 1138.27 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.46% increase from the previous week, while inventory levels have decreased by 209,000 weight boxes [32]. - The report notes that the market is facing risks from speculative inventory transfers and insufficient demand support, with expectations for a slowdown in demand [32]. Glass Fiber Industry Tracking - The report indicates that the glass fiber market remains stable, with no significant changes in production capacity, while demand is expected to be weak due to the traditional off-season [5]. - The average price of non-alkali yarn remains stable, with expectations for price increases in high-end electronic yarn products [5]. Carbon Fiber Industry Tracking - The carbon fiber market shows limited price fluctuations, with a weekly production of 2369 tons and an operating rate of 76.28% [6]. - The average production cost is 112,500 CNY/ton, indicating a negative gross profit margin, highlighting the industry's profit challenges [6]. Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include Yao Pi Glass (EPS: 0.12 CNY), Yinlong Co. (EPS: 0.28 CNY), Pona Co. (EPS: 0.12 CNY), San Ke Tree (EPS: 0.45 CNY), and Bei Xin Building Materials (EPS: 2.14 CNY) [7].

为开辟发展新天地，中国新能源汽车已开始出征海外市场。2025年，汽车出口超700万辆，规模再上新台阶。其中，新能源汽车出口261.5万辆， 同比增长1倍，成为出口"新三样"的代表，对外贸易呈现出较强韧性，中国车正在踏上"全球路"。 以新需求引领新供给，以新供给创造新需求——供给与需求的辩证法，在汽车业体现得淋漓尽致。如今汽车厂商更新迭代的速度几乎赶上手机厂 商，每次新品发布都会带来续航里程、自动驾驶等方方面面的性能飞跃，让消费者产生"上车"冲动。过去一提到汽车，总离不开发动机等三大 件。现在，话题重心已经转移到芯片、全固态电池、激光雷达、智能座舱等，"含科量"满满。这背后，是汽车正在重新被定义——从单纯的交通 工具，到依靠人工智能和算法驱动的"移动的家"，这也为拥有百年历史的汽车业注入了新动能。 "国货"崛起，背靠的是我国14亿多人口、4亿多中等收入群体的超大规模市场。市场是最稀缺的资源，市场资源是我国的巨大优势。尽管我国已经 是世界第一大汽车市场，但我国人均汽车拥有量仍远低于发达国家水平。这也从一个侧面说明了消费潜力所在，3400万辆远不是终点。随着今 年"两新"政策平稳有序衔接，以及充电桩等基础设施不断完 ...

报告日期：2026 年 1 月 16 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评："组合拳"支持经济高质量发展 央行打出"组合拳"支持经济高质量发展。其中包括：下调再贷款、再贴现利率 0.25 个百分点；合并使用支农支小再贷款与再贴现额度，增加支农支小再贷款 额度 5000 亿元，总额度中单设 1 万亿元民营企业再贷款，重点支持中小民营企 业；科技创新和技术改造再贷款额度增加 4000 亿元并扩大支持范围；拓展碳减 排支持工具支持领域；将商业用房购房贷款最低首付比例下调至 30%。央行表示， 今年降准降息还有一定空间。美国白宫发布声明称，美国将从 1 月 15 日起对部 分进口半导体、半导体制造设备和衍生品加征 25%进口从价关税。英伟达 H200 芯 片和超威半导体 MI325X 均在此次加征关税范围内。用于数据中心、研发、维修 和公共部门等领域的半导体产品不在此次加征关税范围之内。国内商品期市夜盘 收盘多数下跌，能源品跌幅居前，燃油跌 2.82%；化工品多数下跌，非金属建材 全部下跌，黑色系多数下跌，焦煤跌 0.72%；油脂油料涨幅居前，菜油涨 2.57%； 农副产品多数上涨，玉米淀粉涨 0.55%。 重点品种：原 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core View - The continuous improvement of the stock market in 2026 is the result of the combined effects of the technology cycle resonance, policy dividend release, economic recovery, and overseas capital inflow. The market has gradually shifted from valuation expansion to profit - driven. It is expected that supply - side reform will continue in 2026, pushing up commodity prices and driving up resource - based stocks. With the continuous release of policy effects, the further strengthening of economic recovery momentum, and the continuous progress of overseas capital allocation of Chinese assets, the stock market is expected to continue its volatile upward trend [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The closing prices of IF contracts increased, with the increase in the current month contract being 15.00 points and a rise of 0.32%. The trading volume of each contract was 29122.00, 18351.00, 81140.00, and 17229.00 respectively, and the open interest decreased by 10720.00 in the current month contract and increased by 4194.00 in the next month contract [1]. - **IH Contracts**: The closing prices of IH contracts decreased, with the current month contract falling by 7.40 points and a decline of 0.24%. The trading volume of each contract was 10975.00, 6924.00, 34976.00, and 6009.00 respectively, and the open interest decreased in the current month and next - season contracts [1]. - **IC Contracts**: The closing prices of IC contracts increased, with the current month contract rising by 11.40 points and a rise of 0.14%. The trading volume of each contract was 32673.00, 26360.00, 110213.00, and 26152.00 respectively, and the open interest changed differently in each contract [1]. - **IM Contracts**: The closing prices of IM contracts increased, with the current month contract rising by 24.80 points and a rise of 0.30%. The trading volume of each contract was 38012.00, 29827.00, 148081.00, and 31844.00 respectively, and the open interest changed in each contract [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts changed, with the current values being - 0.40, - 0.20, 2.60, and - 14.00 respectively, different from the previous values [1]. 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 index increased by 0.20%, the SSE 50 index decreased by 0.21%, the CSI 500 index decreased by 0.05%, and the CSI 1000 index decreased by 0.20%. The trading volume and turnover of each index also changed [1]. - **Industry Index Performance**: Different industries in the CSI 300 industry index showed different trends, with the energy, raw materials, and telecommunications industries rising, and the main consumption, pharmaceutical, and real - estate finance industries falling [1]. 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The futures - spot basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts changed compared with the previous two days, with different values for each contract and different trends [1]. 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.41%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index increased by 0.71%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.56% [1]. - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.28%, the Nikkei 225 decreased by 0.42%, the S&P index increased by 0.26%, and the DAX index increased by 0.26% [1]. 5. Macroeconomic Information - The central bank took a series of measures to support high - quality economic development, including lowering re - loan and re - discount rates, increasing various loan quotas, expanding the scope of support for carbon - emission reduction tools, and lowering the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing loans. The central bank also stated that there is still room for reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts this year [2]. - The US will impose a 25% ad - valorem import tariff on some imported semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and derivatives starting from January 15 [2]. - Chinese Premier Li Qiang held talks with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and the two sides witnessed the signing of multiple cooperation documents [2]. - Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao said that in 2026, the Ministry of Commerce will focus on "three focuses" to release consumption potential [2]. - Foreign Minister Wang Yi had a phone call with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir - Abdollahian, expressing opposition to the use or threat of force in international relations [2]. 6. Industry Information - Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao said that in 2026, China will actively expand independent opening - up, including expanding the opening of service sectors and promoting zero - tariff measures for African countries [2]. - During the 15th Five - Year Plan period, State Grid's fixed - asset investment will reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase from the 14th Five - Year Plan period [2]. - In 2025, the number of idle land parcels to be acquired using special bonds exceeded 5500, with a total land value exceeding 750 billion yuan, and more than 300 billion yuan of special bonds have been issued [2]. - The 2nd Commercial Space Industry Development Conference and the 2026 Commercial Space Exhibition will be held in Shenzhen from March 17 - 18, focusing on hot topics in the commercial space industry [2]. 7. Stock Index Views - The three major US indexes rose, and the previous trading day's stock index mainly fluctuated and corrected, with the electronics sector leading the rise and the comprehensive sector leading the decline. The market turnover was 2.94 trillion yuan. The margin ratio for margin trading was adjusted on January 14, 2026 [2].

有机构指出，往后看驱动化工向好的因素颇多：短期看，春节后迎来旺季，预计存在补库涨价，全球产业链库存不高。3月 两会，观察"十五五"开局之年有无稳增长政策。全球降息周期，从海外消费传导到上游材料需求需要时间，预计下半年进 入加速期。 产能周期看，行业扩产高峰已过，主动型资本开支下降，诸多子行业产能增速为0，有的在出清途中。"十五五"规划建议， 对化工等传统行业提质升级，实现绿色低碳发展。最近无论是陕西出台对高耗能差别电价政策，还是国家取消部分大宗品 的出口退税，上层优化行业意图越发明显，促进供给侧改革。 化工供给增量及存量都会受到控制，简单低效扩产时代过去了。基于此，化工中长期景气向上，持续性可能会超越过去两 轮。久期拉长，估值也有望提升。重视化工的长牛、大机会。市场纠结的方面是有些股价提前打了一些预期，产品价格尚 未大涨。流动性充裕，长线资金提前布局，底部位置本身机构持仓比较低，如果预期后续确定基本面长周期向上，有大的 机会，提前几个月也算正常。 投资上，推荐两个方向，一个是顺周期弹性及成长（核心龙头公司；PTA/涤纶长丝、硅化工、纯碱/氯碱；钾肥/制冷剂/磷 化工等）；二个是成长类（新材料等）。 截至202 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is experiencing a recovery in prosperity, with expectations of a cyclical rebound, as indicated by the recent performance of the chemical leading ETF (516220) which saw a rise of over 2% and has recorded net inflows for four consecutive days [1] Industry Overview - The chemical industry is witnessing a slowdown in supply growth expectations, with a replenishment cycle already underway and a new round of supply-side reforms on the horizon [1] - Since 2025, the industry's profitability has bottomed out and is gradually stabilizing, with a slight year-on-year increase in net profit margin for the first three quarters [1] - Capital expansion within the industry is slowing down, with a year-on-year decrease in construction projects, suggesting that the peak of capacity investment may have passed, potentially alleviating future supply-side pressures [1] Sector Highlights - Specific sectors to watch include refrigerants, potash fertilizers, organic silicon, and phosphorus chemicals, all of which are showing signs of upward trends in prosperity [1] - The transition to quota systems for third-generation refrigerants is leading to a contraction in supply alongside stable demand growth, contributing to ongoing prosperity [1] - The potash fertilizer sector is experiencing a recovery in global demand against a backdrop of production cuts by major players [1] - The peak of organic silicon capacity investment has passed, and the industry is initiating self-regulatory actions, which may improve the supply-demand balance and profitability [1] - In the phosphorus chemical sector, high demand for phosphate rock and rapid development in energy storage are opening up growth opportunities for materials like iron phosphate [1] Growth Opportunities - The growth potential in new materials is noteworthy, particularly with the accelerated industrialization of solid-state batteries benefiting related materials, and strong downstream semiconductor demand driving the domestic replacement of photoresists [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Since 2026, the continuous improvement of the stock market is the result of the combined effects of the technology cycle resonance, policy dividend release, economic recovery, and the return of overseas funds. The market has gradually shifted from being dominated by valuation expansion to a new stage driven by earnings. It is expected that in 2026, supply - side reforms will continue, pushing up commodity prices and driving up resource - based stocks. With the continuous release of policy effects, the further strengthening of economic recovery momentum, and the continuous progress of overseas funds allocating Chinese assets, the stock market is expected to continue its oscillating upward trend [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4737.60, 4740.20, 4740.00, and 4696.80 respectively, with price drops of - 30.20, - 19.60, - 14.00, and - 12.80 and declines of - 0.63%, - 0.41%, - 0.29%, and - 0.27%. The trading volumes were 43598.00, 19748.00, 119874.00, and 25085.00 respectively, and the open interest changes were - 8395.00, 6698.00, 11113.00, and 3003.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 3109.00, 3108.20, 3114.00, and 3112.00 respectively, with price drops of - 24.80, - 24.60, - 19.60, and - 13.40 and declines of - 0.79%, - 0.79%, - 0.63%, and - 0.43%. The trading volumes were 15452.00, 7165.00, 48861.00, and 9566.00 respectively, and the open interest changes were - 2580.00, 2392.00, 2763.00, and 1422.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 8221.00, 8218.60, 8197.80, and 8038.80 respectively, with price increases of 52.60, 71.40, 76.60, and 71.20 and increases of 0.64%, 0.88%, 0.94%, and 0.89%. The trading volumes were 47432.00, 29317.00, 173512.00, and 43196.00 respectively, and the open interest changes were - 5764.00, 9646.00, 9403.00, and 4567.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 8242.00, 8215.00, 8156.00, and 7965.00 respectively, with price increases of 6.20, 19.20, 5.20, and 19.20 and increases of 0.08%, 0.23%, 0.06%, and 0.24%. The trading volumes were 65555.00, 35068.00, 225371.00, and 52601.00 respectively, and the open interest changes were - 6665.00, 12466.00, 4547.00, and 3038.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts were 2.60, - 0.80, - 2.40, and - 27.00 respectively, compared with previous values of - 3.20, - 4.20, - 22.20, and - 33.40 [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **CSI 300 Index**: The previous value of the CSI 300 index was 4741.93, with a trading volume of 364.95 billion lots and a total trading value of 8913.34 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 4761.03, and the decline was - 0.40% [1] - **SSE 50 Index**: The previous value of the SSE 50 index was 3112.07, with a trading volume of 71.96 billion lots and a total trading value of 2160.78 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 3132.93, and the decline was - 0.67% [1] - **CSI 500 Index**: The previous value of the CSI 500 index was 8227.70, with a trading volume of 422.77 billion lots and a total trading value of 8159.59 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 8143.28, and the increase was 1.04% [1] - **CSI 1000 Index**: The previous value of the CSI 1000 index was 8257.17, with a trading volume of 489.80 billion lots and a total trading value of 8842.81 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 8203.13, and the increase was 0.66% [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Different industries had different trends. For example, the energy, raw materials, industry, and optional consumption industries had declines of - 0.72%, 0.12%, - 0.83%, and - 0.75% respectively; the main consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, and information technology industries had declines of - 0.71%, - 0.91%, - 1.59%, and an increase of 1.46% respectively; the telecommunications business and public utilities industries had an increase of 0.60% and a decline of - 1.41% respectively [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis differences between IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, far - quarter) and the CSI 300 index were - 4.33, - 1.73, - 1.93, and - 45.13 respectively, compared with previous two - day values of 5.17, 1.97, - 2.43, and - 46.03 [1] - The basis differences between IH contracts and the SSE 50 index were - 3.07, - 3.87, 1.93, and - 0.07 respectively, compared with previous two - day values of 3.67, - 0.53, 4.67, and - 4.33 [1] - The basis differences between IC contracts and the CSI 500 index were - 6.70, - 9.10, - 29.90, and - 188.90 respectively, compared with previous two - day values of 29.52, 7.32, - 12.08, and - 158.08 [1] - The basis differences between IM contracts and the CSI 1000 index were - 15.17, - 42.17, - 101.17, and - 292.17 respectively, compared with previous two - day values of 30.67, - 2.73, - 42.73, and - 242.73 [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 4126.09, 14248.60, 8746.68, and 3349.14 respectively, with changes of - 0.31%, 0.56%, 0.18%, and 0.82% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 26999.81, 54341.23, 6926.60, and 25286.24 respectively, with changes of 0.56%, 1.48%, - 0.53%, and - 0.53% [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - The CSRC approved the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges to adjust the margin ratio for margin trading from 80% to 100% for new margin trading contracts, aiming to reduce leverage and protect investors' rights and promote market stability [2] - The policy of tax refund for home - swapping residents was extended until the end of 2027. Taxpayers who sell their self - owned housing and repurchase a new one within one year can get a tax refund [2] - In 2025, China's foreign trade imports and exports reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. In December, imports and exports were 4.26 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. China's rare - earth exports in December increased by 32% year - on - year to 4392 tons, with annual exports reaching 62585 tons [2] - The central bank will conduct 900 billion yuan of 6 - month repurchase operations on January 15, with an additional 300 billion yuan compared to the maturing amount, marking the fifth consecutive month of increased operations [2] - The Ministry of Finance, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Taxation Administration issued a notice on the tax policy for goods import and export in the Shenzhen Park of the Hetao Shenzhen - Hong Kong Science and Technology Innovation Cooperation Zone, effective from February 10, 2026 [2] 6. Industry Information - Three departments regulated the competition order in the new - energy vehicle industry, aiming to resist price wars and build a fair market. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) released data showing that in 2025, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 34 million units, with new - energy vehicle production and sales exceeding 16 million units, accounting for over 50% of new - car sales. The CAAM expects that in 2026, total automobile sales will reach 34.75 million units, a 1% increase, and new - energy vehicle sales will reach 19 million units, a 15.2% increase. The inter - ministerial meeting emphasized enhancing industrial chain autonomy and promoting new - energy vehicle development [2] - The results of the sixth batch of high - value medical consumables procurement were announced, covering 12 types of medical consumables in two categories, with 202 enterprises and 440 products selected. Urological calculi surgery - related consumables were included in the procurement for the first time, and the selected results are expected to be implemented around May [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - IH, IF, IC, IM stock indices, rubber, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, gold, silver, copper, aluminum, lithium carbonate, cotton, and corn are rated as bullish; crude oil, methanol, apple, and container shipping to Europe are rated as bearish [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The US inflation pressure has eased, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is strengthened. The global synchronous interest - rate cut cycle provides a favorable environment for the rise of precious metals. The long - term upward trend of gold continues, and the price centers of silver and platinum are expected to rise. The stock market is expected to continue the upward trend in shock due to factors such as technology cycle resonance, policy dividends, economic recovery, and overseas capital inflow. The short - term trend of oils and fats is mainly volatile. The prices of some commodities are affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitics, and policies [2][4][5][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main News - **International News**: The Fed's Beige Book shows that the overall economic activity in eight of the 12 Fed districts increased slightly to moderately. Most banks reported a small and moderate increase in consumer spending during the holiday shopping season [8] - **Domestic News**: The policy of tax refund for residents' housing replacement has been extended until the end of 2027. Taxpayers who sell their self - owned housing and repurchase a housing within one year can get a tax refund [9] - **Industry News**: The minimum margin ratio for investors' margin trading has been raised from 80% to 100% [10] 3.2 Outer - market Daily Earnings - The S&P 500 fell 0.53% to 6,926.60 points; the European STOXX 50 rose 0.06% to 5,116.59 points; the FTSE China A50 futures fell 0.68% to 15,295.00 points. The dollar index fell 0.11% to 99.08 points. ICE Brent crude oil fell 0.11% to $65.39 per barrel. London gold rose 0.88% to $4,626.10 per ounce, and London silver rose 7.00% to $93.00 per ounce [12] 3.3 Morning Comments on Main Varieties 3.3.1 Financial - **Stock Indices**: The US stock indices fell, and the previous trading day's stock indices rose and then fell. The computer sector led the rise, and the banking sector led the fall. The stock market is expected to continue the upward trend in shock [13] - **Treasury Bonds**: The prices of Treasury bond futures have stabilized. The central bank's open - market operation has a net reverse - repurchase injection, and the market risk preference has declined. The expectation of loose policies at the beginning of the year is strong [14][15] 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC rose 1.8% at night. There are geopolitical factors affecting the oil market, and some OPEC countries have compensation plans for overproduction [16] - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 1.14% at night. The supply - demand pattern is stable, and the supply of Iranian sources is the main trading logic [17] - **Natural Rubber**: The price trend is expected to be slightly stronger in shock. The domestic production area has stopped cutting, and the demand side supports the stable operation of all - steel tire production [18] - **Polyolefins**: The futures of polyolefins continue the rebound trend, supported by supply improvement expectations and rising international oil prices [19] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass futures are in low - level consolidation, and the soda ash futures closed slightly up. The market focuses on the recovery of the real - estate industry chain and the supply - side contraction [21] 3.3.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals fluctuated at a high level at night. The long - term upward trend of gold continues, and the price centers of silver and platinum are expected to rise [22] - **Copper**: The copper price fell 0.44% at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, and the short - term price is more affected by market sentiment [23] - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose 1.31% at night. The supply of concentrates is temporarily tight, and attention should be paid to market sentiment [24] - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price fell 0.32% at night. The short - term fundamentals are weak, but the long - term low inventory and supply constraints provide support [25] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract fluctuated. The market is concerned, and it is recommended to participate cautiously. The price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [26][27] 3.3.4 Black Series - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The main contracts fluctuated at night. The short - term trend is expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to supply, iron - water production, and downstream restocking [28] - **Steel**: The steel price rose slightly at night. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the macro effect accounts for a large proportion [29] - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore price fluctuated. The short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger in shock, and steel mills will maintain on - demand procurement [30] 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The soybean meal rose and the rapeseed meal fell at night. The Brazilian soybean harvest is expected to be good, and the US soybean production is expected to increase, which will put pressure on prices [31][32] - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats were weak at night. The MPOB report had a neutral impact, and the Indonesian biodiesel policy has affected market sentiment. The short - term trend is mainly volatile [33] - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar main contract fluctuated. The international and domestic supply pressures are different, and the short - term price is expected to run within a range [34] - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract fluctuated. The downstream demand has support, and the short - term price is expected to be volatile [35] 3.3.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC contract rose 0.21%. The pre - holiday freight rate is expected to enter a downward channel, but the 04 contract may enter a shock pattern due to the game between freight - rate cuts and export rush expectations [36]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the upward trend in various commodities, driven by macroeconomic factors such as inflation data and trade statistics, indicating potential investment opportunities in energy and precious metals [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. PPI and core PPI increased by 3% year-on-year in November, surpassing market expectations of 2.7%, primarily due to rising energy costs [1]. - China's foreign trade in 2025 is projected to reach 45.47 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 3.8%, marking nine consecutive years of growth [1]. - In December, China's exports of rare earths surged by 32% to 4,392 tons, with total annual exports reaching 62,585 tons [1]. Group 2: Commodity Market Trends - Domestic commodity futures saw a majority increase in night trading, with energy products leading the gains; fuel oil rose by 3.13% and polypropylene by 1.23% [1]. - Precious metals are experiencing high volatility, supported by easing inflation pressures in the U.S. and expectations of interest rate cuts, which bolster gold's long-term upward trend [2]. - The palm oil market remains weak, with Malaysia's December palm oil production at 1,829,761 tons, a decrease of 5.46% month-on-month, while exports increased by 8.52% [3]. Group 3: Stock Market Insights - The U.S. stock indices fell, with the technology sector leading gains and the banking sector declining; the market's trading volume was 3.99 trillion yuan [4]. - The financing balance increased by 9.402 billion yuan to 26.65391 trillion yuan on January 13 [4]. - The stock market's positive trend in 2026 is attributed to the convergence of technology cycles, policy benefits, economic recovery, and the return of overseas capital [4]. Group 4: Industry-Specific Developments - The adjustment of financing margin ratios by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, increasing the minimum margin from 80% to 100%, is expected to impact new financing contracts [8][9]. - The overall economic activity in eight of the twelve Federal Reserve districts showed slight to moderate growth, indicating a recovery in consumer spending during the holiday shopping season [7].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is performing strongly, while the Hong Kong stock market is lagging behind due to mismatched market structure and current capital preferences, alongside a weak liquidity environment [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 12, 2026, the Wind All A Index has risen by 6.92%, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Index up by 13.39%, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index (3.82%) and Hang Seng Tech Index (6.29%) [1] - The Hang Seng Index saw a 27.77% increase in 2025, driven by global liquidity easing, valuation recovery in the financial sector, and sustained inflows from southbound capital [3] - The Hang Seng Composite Index increased by 30.98%, reflecting higher elasticity in small and mid-cap stocks favored by southbound capital [3] Group 2: Sector Analysis - Resource, technology manufacturing, and consumer services sectors have emerged as leading growth areas, with other metals and mining sectors rising by 198.56% due to global copper supply shortages and strong lithium demand [4] - The semiconductor sector surged by 136.89%, driven by breakthroughs in advanced processes and increased demand for AI servers [4] - The healthcare provider and service sector declined by 17.85% due to policy cost control and intensified industry competition [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue its recovery in 2026, transitioning from strong broad-based growth in 2025 to a more moderate recovery with structural differentiation [5] - Key drivers for market resilience include improving liquidity, steady recovery of the Chinese economy, and a rebalancing of domestic and foreign capital structures [6] - The Hang Seng Index's earnings per share is projected to grow by 9.64% in 2026, with the Hang Seng Tech Index expected to see a 34.63% increase, supported by a mild recovery in the Chinese macroeconomy [7] Group 4: Structural Changes - The composition of the Hang Seng Index has fundamentally changed from 65.85% in traditional sectors (finance, energy, real estate) to 42.02%, while new economy sectors (consumer discretionary, information technology, healthcare) have increased from 20.83% to 48.87% [8] - This shift aligns with China's "14th Five-Year Plan" focusing on technological self-reliance, indicating a new growth phase with improved visibility and sustainability in profit growth [8] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The market is expected to be highly structured in 2026, with AI software and hardware as the main themes, driven by breakthroughs in hard technology and the practical application of AI [10] - The cyclical resource theme will benefit from supply-side optimization and demand recovery, with industrial metals likely to see price strength due to ongoing supply constraints [11] - High-dividend assets may still provide absolute returns, but the focus should shift to sectors with strong supply barriers and pricing power, such as infrastructure-related sectors and the insurance industry [12]