期货研究报告|宏观数据 2025-05-06 4 月 PMI 回落，关税扰动初现 ——宏观景气度系列四 研究院 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 4 月中国制造业 PMI 为 49.0（-1.5pct MoM）；非制造业 PMI 为 51.9（-1.5pct MoM）。 核心观点 ■ 制造业 PMI 供给：制造业生产回落。4 月生产指数为 49.8，较上月变化-2.8 。供应商配送时间指数 为 50.2，较上月变化-0.1 。 需求：制造业需求回落。4 月新订单指数为 49.2，较上月变化-2.6 。新出口订单指数为 44.7，较上月变化-4.3 。在手订单指数为 43.2，较上月变化-2.4 。 供求平衡：供需关系小幅改善但未扭转。4 月供需指数（需求-供给）为-0.6 ，较上月变 化 0.2 ，较去年同期变化 1.2 ，较过去三年均值变化 1.1 。 价格：制造业盈利收缩。4 月原材料价格指数为 47，较上月变化-2.8 。出厂价格指数为 44.8，较上月变化-3.1 。出厂价格-原材 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global manufacturing PMI index for April 2025 shows a slight decline to 49.8, indicating economic uncertainty due to tariff disruptions, with varying performances across regions [1][2]. Regional Analysis Asia - Economic performance in Asia remains mixed, with Japan and India showing marginal improvements in manufacturing PMI, while China's and South Korea's indices fell to 49 and 47.5 respectively. India's PMI rose to 58.2, and Japan's to 48.7 [3]. Europe - Most European countries saw marginal improvements in manufacturing PMI, yet they remain in contraction territory. Germany's PMI increased to 48.4, above previous values and expectations. The Eurozone's GDP growth rate for Q1 2025 has rebounded above zero, but tariff impacts continue to pose risks [3]. Americas - North American economies are experiencing a slight downturn, with Mexico and Canada's manufacturing PMIs dropping to 44.8 and 45.3 respectively, influenced by U.S. trade policies and declining output [3]. U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI fell by 0.3 points to 48.7, continuing a downward trend from the previous quarter. Key characteristics include a decline in supply and demand, rising inflation, a cooling job market, and significant drops in export orders [4]. Export Trends - China's overall export growth is expected to face pressure in Q2 2025. In March, South Korea's export growth improved to 3.7%, while China's export growth surged to 12.4%, driven by low base effects and strong performance in semiconductor and machinery sectors. However, most goods are anticipated to be negatively impacted by trade frictions [5].

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - April official manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the sector[3] - New export orders fell by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, reflecting significant external demand weakness[4] - Industrial raw material purchase prices dropped to 47.0%, a decline of 2.8 percentage points, suggesting ongoing price pressures[21] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - April construction PMI decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 51.9%, with new orders showing mixed trends[22] - Special bond issuance progress reached approximately 27.1% by April 30, outperforming the 18.0% of the same period in 2024, indicating strong infrastructure momentum[22] - Service sector PMI remained relatively stable at 50.1%, with new orders declining by 1.2 percentage points to 45.9%[32] Group 3: Tariff Disturbance Phases - The first phase (May-June) is characterized by a slight recovery in exports, projected at +0.9% year-on-year, despite increasing downward pressure[6] - The second phase (July-August) may see reduced production schedules and workforce optimization among export firms if tariff conditions do not improve[6] - The current period is critical for policy decisions, with expectations for more flexible responses to economic pressures from both China and the U.S.[6] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected policy changes and a sharper-than-expected recession in the U.S. economy[7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to tariff disturbances and increasing inventory. The operation strategy for the iron ore 2509 contract is to be bearish on the oscillation, with attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Key Points Summary a. Market Review - As of April 30, the closing price of the iron ore main contract was 703.5 yuan/ton (-5.5 yuan/ton), and the price of Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 805 yuan/dry ton (+2 yuan/dry ton) [5]. - From April 21 - April 27, 2025, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,758.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 320.7 million tons. Australian shipments were 1,995.2 million tons, an increase of 196.0 million tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1,647.2 million tons, an increase of 72.9 million tons. Brazilian shipments were 763.2 million tons, an increase of 124.6 million tons [5]. - From April 21 - April 27, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2,679.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 230.4 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2,512.8 million tons, an increase of 187.5 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,159.3 million tons, a decrease of 34.3 million tons [5]. - The daily average pig iron output was 244.35 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.23 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 15.63 million tons [5]. - As of April 25, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14,781 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 231 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 663.11 million tons. The inventory of imported ore at 247 steel mills was 9,073.03 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20.11 million tons [5]. - The profitability rate of steel mills was 57.58%, a week - on - week increase of 2.6 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.93 percentage points [5]. b. Market Outlook - Macro aspect: Overseas, the US is negotiating customized agreements with 15 - 18 "important trading partners", and one of the first agreements may be with India. Domestically, the National Development and Reform Commission is confident in achieving this year's economic and social development goals, and measures to stabilize employment and the economy will be introduced one by one as they mature [7]. - Supply - demand aspect: The shipments and arrivals of Australian and Brazilian iron ore have increased, and the inventory at domestic ports has changed from decreasing to increasing, with an expected further increase in supply. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills has been slightly adjusted upwards, and pig iron output has changed from decreasing to increasing [7]. - Technical aspect: The daily K - line of the iron ore 2509 contract is under pressure below multiple moving averages, and the moving average combination is in a short - position arrangement. The MACD indicator shows that DIFF and DEA are operating below the 0 axis [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market a. Futures Price - This week, the I2509 contract fluctuated weakly. It was weaker than the I2601 contract, and the spread on the 30th was 24.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5 yuan/ton [13]. b. Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On April 30, the number of iron ore warehouse receipts at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 3,200, unchanged from the previous week. The net short position of the top 20 holders of iron ore futures contracts was 219, an increase of 2,140 from the previous week [21]. c. Spot Price - On April 30, the price of 61% Australian Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 805 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was stronger than the futures price, and the basis on the 30th was 102 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton [27]. 3. Upstream Market a. Arrival Volume - From April 21 - April 27, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2,679.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 230.4 million tons; the total arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2,512.8 million tons, an increase of 187.5 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,159.3 million tons, a decrease of 34.3 million tons [31]. b. Mine Capacity Utilization and BDI Index - As of April 25, the capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines was 63.06%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.99%, and the inventory was 65.26 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.28 million tons. On April 29, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,398, a week - on - week increase of 25 [35]. 4. Industry Situation a. Port Inventory - This week, the 62% iron ore Platts index was in a narrow - range consolidation. On April 29, the price was 99.3 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.1 US dollars/ton compared to April 25. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14,781 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 231 million tons, and the average daily port clearance volume was 343.22 million tons, an increase of 20.91 million tons [39]. b. Steel Mill Inventory - The total inventory of imported iron ore at domestic steel mills was 9,073.03 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20.11 million tons. The daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills was 301.39 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.29 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.1 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27 days. As of April 24, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore at large and medium - sized domestic steel mills was 21 days, an increase of 1 day [42]. 5. Downstream Market a. Steel Production and Trade - In March 2025, the crude steel output was 9,284 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%, and the daily average output was 299.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.3%. From January to March, the cumulative crude steel output was 25,933 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. From January to March, the cumulative export of steel was 2,742.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%, and the cumulative import of steel was 155.0 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.3% [45]. b. Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Pig Iron Output - On April 25, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.60 percentage points. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 91.6%, a week - on - week increase of 1.45 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points. The daily average pig iron output was 244.35 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.23 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 15.63 million tons [48]. 6. Options Market - Due to tariff disturbances and increasing iron ore port inventory, the black series is generally weak. It is recommended to buy out - of - the - money put options [51].

热轧卷板产业链日报 2025/4/29 | 项目类别 数据指标 | | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,210 | -27↓ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1332134 | -28759↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | 110,790 | -13756↓ HC5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -21 | +7↑ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 347020 | -2653↓ HC2505-RB2505合约价差(元/吨) | 110 | +2↑ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,280.00 | -40.00↓ 广州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,290.00 | -10.00↓ | | | 武汉 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,320.00 | -20.00↓ 天津 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,220.00 | -20.00↓ | | | HC主力合约基差(元/吨) | 70. ...

Group 1: Consumer Goods - The core consumer goods include electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers, primarily targeting high-end markets in Europe and the US [3] - In March 2025, US retail sales increased by 1.4%, surpassing market expectations of 1.3%, with core retail sales rising by 0.5% [3] - The increase in March retail data is attributed to preemptive consumer purchasing ahead of tariff impositions, which may lead to a decline in future retail performance due to demand being pulled forward [3] - Consumer confidence in the US fell by 6.2 percentage points to 50.8 in April, the lowest level since July 2022, indicating potential pressure on future retail data [3] Group 2: Capital Goods - The export characteristics of industrial sewing machines show Asia as the largest market, accounting for 68% of export value in 2024, with key countries including Turkey, Vietnam, and Singapore [5] - Forklift exports are primarily directed towards Asia and Europe, with respective export value shares of 30% and 34% in 2024 [5] - Machine tool exports are predominantly to Asia, maintaining around 50% of export value from 2019 to 2024, with notable fluctuations in exports to Russia [5] - Mining machinery exports are led by Asia, Africa, and Europe, with cumulative export value shares of 41%, 22%, and 20% respectively in the first quarter of 2025 [5] Group 3: Engineering Machinery - Cumulative export value of engineering machinery grew by 10% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, with Africa showing the highest growth rate at 128% [6] - The cumulative export value to Asia accounted for 43% of total exports, while exports to Africa increased significantly, raising its share to 19% [6] - In March 2025, the export growth rates for major engineering machinery categories were 6% for general machinery, 14% for excavators, 21% for tractors, and 24% for mining machinery [9] - Cumulative growth rates for these categories in the first quarter of 2025 were 10% for general machinery, 22% for excavators, 31% for tractors, and 18% for mining machinery [9]

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Group 1: Macro Insights - The large-scale tariffs implemented by Trump in early April 2025 led to a surge in consumer purchases in March, resulting in a month-on-month retail growth rate of +1.4%, a significant increase from February's +0.2% [2] - However, this front-loading of consumer demand may lead to a weakening of future retail data, indicating potential risks for upcoming consumption trends [2] Group 2: Industry Research - The real estate sector is identified as the largest driver of domestic demand, with a recommendation for strategic investment in the real estate supply chain, including leading companies such as Beike-W, China State Construction, and major cement and glass producers like Conch Cement and Qibin Group [3] - The report suggests that these companies are positioned well due to the cyclical bottoming and improving profitability, alongside potential policy support [3] Group 3: Oil and Gas Sector - The IEA and OPEC have lowered their oil demand forecasts for 2025, yet there is a strong outlook for the "three oil giants" (China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC) due to their low valuations, high dividends, and resilient performance [4] - The report also highlights opportunities in domestic substitutes for semiconductor materials and panel materials, as well as in the pesticide and fertilizer sectors [4] Group 4: Company-Specific Analysis - For Shida Shenghua, the report anticipates a decline in profitability for 2024 due to the low demand in the lithium battery sector, with net profits projected to drop significantly in 2025 and 2026 [5] - Despite this, the company is expanding its production capacity for electrolyte products, which may provide growth opportunities in the future [5] Group 5: Coal Industry - Lu'an Environmental Energy is recognized as a leading producer of injection coal, with a strong business model and high elasticity, despite current coal price declines [7] - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 2.62 billion, 2.14 billion, and 3.03 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.87, 0.71, and 1.01 yuan [7] Group 6: High-End Manufacturing - Su Shi Testing is facing short-term performance pressure, with a projected revenue decline of 4.31% in 2024, but is expected to benefit from recovering downstream demand and new industry layouts [8] - The forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 3.04 billion, 3.81 billion, and 4.62 billion yuan, indicating potential recovery [8] Group 7: Renewable Energy - Guoneng Rixin is expected to maintain steady growth, with a projected net profit of 0.94 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 11.09% year-on-year increase [9] - The company is advancing its product upgrades and is well-positioned to meet increasing demand in the distributed energy sector [9] Group 8: Electrical Equipment - Huaming Equipment reported an 18.41% increase in revenue for 2024, with net profits rising by 13.25% [10] - The company is expanding its overseas market presence and is expected to achieve net profits of 7.09 billion, 8.09 billion, and 9.15 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [10] Group 9: Communication Technology - Hengwei Technology has revised its net profit forecasts downward for 2025 and 2026, but maintains a positive long-term growth outlook [11] - The projected net profits for 2027 are expected to reach 2.41 billion yuan, indicating potential recovery [11] Group 10: Beverage Industry - Dongpeng Beverage reported a strong start to 2025, with a revenue increase of 39.23% in Q1 and a net profit growth of 47.62% [12] - Future net profit projections for 2025-2027 are 4.483 billion, 5.684 billion, and 6.836 billion yuan, suggesting robust growth potential [12] Group 11: Catalyst and Advanced Materials - Zhongzi Technology's catalyst business is expected to benefit from the implementation of the National VII standards, with a strategic focus on high-end composite materials [13] - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are -0.27 billion, 0.57 billion, and 2.38 billion yuan, indicating a potential turnaround [13]

Price Trends - In March 2025, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the PPI fell by 2.5%, indicating a marginal expansion in the decline[2] - The month-on-month CPI dropped by 0.4%, aligning with seasonal patterns, and the year-on-year decline narrowed[3] - Core CPI showed a marginal recovery, primarily due to the effects of the "trade-in" policy, which supported prices of household appliances and electronics[3] Consumption and Demand - Overall consumption and service demand remain weak, necessitating further policy support[2] - March food prices fell by 1.4% month-on-month, with significant declines in fresh vegetables, pork, and eggs[6] - The average price of live pigs was approximately 14.6 yuan/kg, remaining below 15 yuan/kg for three consecutive months[6] PPI Dynamics - The PPI saw an expanded decline of 0.4% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year, influenced by falling international oil prices and weak domestic demand[12] - The upstream mining sector experienced a month-on-month price drop of 2.9%, while raw material prices shifted from a 0.1% increase to a 0.6% decrease[12] - The prices of durable consumer goods fell by 1.0%, indicating a potential "price war" as companies aim to boost sales[12] Policy Implications - Increased urgency for monetary policy adjustments, including RRR cuts and interest rate reductions, is anticipated[2] - Fiscal measures are expected to include accelerated special bond issuance and enhanced consumption subsidies[2] - The ongoing tariff disturbances and rising external risks suggest that further growth-stabilizing policies are likely to be implemented[2] Risks - Uncertainty in real estate trends persists, and the strength of policy measures may be weaker than expected[21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rubber market is bearish due to strong supply increase expectations, weakened global demand under tariff disturbances, and continued inventory accumulation [3]. - For PX, PTA, and MEG, the cost has dropped significantly, and demand has weakened due to tariff disturbances. PX prices are expected to be weak, PTA prices will follow the cost - side to fluctuate, and MEG prices are relatively supported to rebound [4]. - The polyolefin market's demand is expected to weaken significantly after the "reciprocal tariff" is implemented, and prices are expected to decline following crude oil [5]. - The PVC market's supply and demand will both weaken marginally, and prices are expected to fall after the "reciprocal tariff" is implemented [6]. - The methanol market's near - term supply and demand are tight, but the far - month supply and demand may be loose, and the main contract is expected to be weak [7]. 3. Summaries by Directory Rubber Price - Futures prices of RU, NR, and BR have declined. The RU main contract decreased by 375 yuan/ton, the NR main contract by 470 yuan/ton, and the BR main contract by 390 yuan/ton from March 28 to April 3 [12]. - The basis of rubber main contracts has changed. The RU main contract basis decreased by 25 yuan/ton, the NR main contract basis by 6 yuan/ton, and the BR main contract basis increased by 490 yuan/ton [15]. - The RU5 - 9 month spread fluctuates slightly. The RU - NR spread decreased by 8 yuan/ton compared to the previous period and 222 yuan/ton year - on - year [19]. - The processing profit of Thai standard rubber has improved. It increased by 50.67 dollars/ton compared to the previous period and 66 dollars/ton year - on - year [25]. Supply - Domestic and foreign natural rubber production areas are in different stages of the opening season. China's Yunnan and Hainan, Thailand, and Vietnam have specific opening schedules. The supply is expected to increase [3][33]. - China's natural and mixed rubber imports have increased year - on - year and month - on - month. In February 2025, the imports of natural and mixed rubber were 50.32 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 44.9% [41]. - The production of butadiene is at a high level. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene on April 4, 2025, was 75.37%, a year - on - year increase of 11.71% [45]. - There is a net import of butadiene rubber. In February 2025, the import was 22,651 tons, and the export was 18,456 tons [52]. Demand - The domestic demand for rubber is generally rigid. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 75.81%, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 68.28%, showing a decline compared to the previous period and the same period last year [3][55]. - Tire manufacturers have insufficient motivation to reduce inventory. As of the week of April 4, the inventory turnover days of domestic tire enterprises' full - steel tires and semi - steel tires were 41 days and 43 days respectively, with a weekly decrease of 1 day [56]. - From January to February, tire exports maintained a year - on - year increase [57]. - China's automobile production and sales continued to grow steadily. In March 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, a 29% increase from February and a 9% decrease from the same period last year [58][59]. Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber is still in the accumulation stage. As of March 30, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.379 million tons, a 0.6% increase from the previous period [3]. - The inventory of Qingdao area has increased. As of March 28, the total inventory was 476,400 tons, an increase of 21,600 tons from the previous period [61]. - As of April 3, the natural rubber warehouse receipt was 200,000 tons, a weekly increase of 700 tons, and the exchange total inventory was 200,771 tons, a weekly decrease of 40 tons [66]. 持仓 - The total positions of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and BR have changed. As of April 3, 2025, the total positions of natural rubber decreased by 7,043 hands, 20 - number rubber decreased by 11,038 hands, and BR increased by 4,939 hands compared to March 28 [72]. - The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR has declined, and the warehouse receipt pressure has eased [75]. PX&PTA&MEG Price - The futures prices of PX, PTA, and MEG have declined. From March 28 to April 3, 2025, the PTA closing price decreased by 92 yuan/ton, the MEG closing price by 12 yuan/ton, and the PX closing price by 140 yuan/ton [100]. - The basis and spreads of PTA, MEG, and PX have changed. For example, the PTA basis decreased by 1 yuan/ton, the MEG basis decreased by 18 yuan/ton, and the PX basis increased by 135 yuan/ton [108]. Supply - Some PX devices have started maintenance. As of April 4, the PX operating load in China was 74.4%, a weekly decrease of 3.4%, and the Asian PX operating load was 71.5%, a weekly decrease of 1% [120]. - The operating load of PTA decreased by 0.7% to 79.2% as of April 3 [123]. - The overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 72.13% as of April 3, a decrease of 0.45% from the previous period [125]. 进出口 No relevant information provided. Inventory - The ethylene glycol inventory has decreased. The inventory in the East China main port area was about 785,000 tons as of March 31, an increase of 18,000 tons from the previous period [4]. Polyester Demand The terminal demand is in the process of recovery, but the downstream demand after the festival has not recovered as expected, and the recovery of terminal demand is slow [130][131]. 持仓 No relevant information provided.