外媒指出，中国强劲的出口表现为其政策操作提供了更大空间，未来财政发力将在弥补全球经济不确定 性方面发挥关键作用。 12月10日，国际货币基金组织（IMF）表示，尽管面临多重冲击，中国经济仍展现出显著韧性。IMF预 计2025年中国经济增速将达5%，较今年10月发布的《世界经济展望报告》上调0.2个百分点。 与此同时，全球其他经济体也陆续传递出明年的货币政策信号。当地时间12月10日，美联储如期降息25 个基点，最新点阵图显示明年或只降息一次。这与欧元区、英国、加拿大等主要央行维持利率不变甚至 释放紧缩倾向形成鲜明对比，日本央行则已经传递出考虑加息的明确信号。 货币政策的分化不仅影响着发达经济体的资产价格与汇率走势，也为新兴市场带来差异化的外部条件与 政策选择空间。如何在这一复杂变局中把握节奏、统筹内外，将成为各方谋划2026年经济工作的关键议 题。 中国：稳中求进、提质增效 2026年是中国"十五五"规划开局之年。12月8日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工 作。围绕做好明年经济工作，会议指出，"要坚持稳中求进、提质增效"。"实施更加积极有为的宏观政 策"，"继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the consumer sector, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand and consumption recovery [1]. Core Insights - The consumer sector experienced a decline across various segments, with notable drops in retail, social services, food and beverage, beauty care, home appliances, and textiles [3]. - High-end liquor, particularly Moutai, is showing signs of bottoming out despite a significant price drop, indicating potential recovery as demand stabilizes [3]. - The central economic work conference highlighted the commitment to boosting domestic consumption, with policies aimed at increasing residents' income and optimizing supply of quality goods and services [3]. - The report suggests focusing on service consumption sectors, which have room for growth compared to developed countries [3]. Summary by Sections Market Weekly Review - The consumer sector saw a broad decline, with specific weekly performance metrics indicating negative trends across various sub-sectors [3][5]. - Notable stock performances included significant gains for certain companies, while others faced substantial losses [3][13][14]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - Recent regulatory approvals and policy initiatives are expected to impact various sectors, including tourism and electric vehicles, with a focus on enhancing consumer experiences and market growth [15][16][19]. - Companies like Tim Hortons and others reported positive financial results, indicating resilience in the consumer market despite broader sector challenges [19][20].

发布时间：2025-12-15 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 证券研究报告：建筑材料|行业周报 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 5178.51 | | 52 周最高 | 5417.39 | | 52 周最低 | 4167.51 | 行业相对指数表现 -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 20% 2024-12 2025-02 2025-05 2025-07 2025-09 2025-12 建筑材料 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 建材行业报告 （2025.12.08-2025.12.14） 中央经济会议定调内需，提振消费政策值得期待 分析师:赵洋 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050002 Email:zhaoyang@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《需求逐步进入淡季，期待地产及化债 政策落地》 - 2025.12.08 投资要点 中央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行，会议提出坚 持内需主导，建设强大国内市场。深入实施提振消费专项行动，制定 实施城乡居民增收计划。扩大优质商品和服务 ...

全文共14877字，阅读大约需要30分钟 文 财信研究院宏观团队 伍超明、胡文艳、李沫、段雨佳 事件 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行，总结2025年经济工作，分析当前经济形势，部署2026年经济工作。 核心观点 一、经济形势：问题挑战仍然不少，但基调更趋积极。对外部环境，强调变化影响加深，但删去"不利"二字，反映我国应对外部挑战的战略主动权增 强，预计2026年外部环境将从高度动荡走向边际趋稳。国内经济供强需弱矛盾突出，被明确界定为"发展中、转型中的问题"，预计2026年在政策推动 下，经济有望稳步走向供需再平衡。 二、"五个必须"：苦练内功，充分挖掘经济潜能。为做好新形势下的经济工作，会议明确提出"五个必须"。其中，"必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑 战"是基于外部大变局和内部大转型交织背景下提出的根本方针；"必须充分挖掘经济潜能"是落实"苦练内功"的核心路径；"必须坚持政策支持与改革 创新并举"、"必须做到既'放得活'又'管得好'"、"必须坚持投资于物与投资于人紧密结合"，是挖掘经济潜能的三大关键抓手。 三、2026年增长目标：预计实现名义和实际GDP增长5%左右。首先，5%的增长目标是为实现" ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy and Domestic Market - The core macroeconomic policy emphasizes a more proactive approach, focusing on quality and efficiency as key development themes, with the "Eight Persistences" as critical directives for economic work in the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - Domestic demand has become the main driver of economic growth, contributing an average of 93.1% to economic growth from 2013 to 2024, highlighting the importance of a strong domestic market as a long-term strategy [2][3] Group 2: Innovation and New Growth Drivers - The necessity of innovation-driven growth is underscored, as new momentum is essential for future development and competitive positioning, requiring a systemic reshaping of production factors and business models [4][5] - The development of new momentum must support both high-end industries and traditional industry upgrades, creating high-quality employment and meeting the needs of the populace [5] Group 3: Reform and High-Quality Development - Continuous reform is essential to inject vitality into high-quality development, addressing deep-seated issues that have emerged due to changing development stages [6][7] - Emphasis on technological innovation as a key driver for high-quality development, necessitating a deep integration of innovation systems and breaking down institutional barriers [7] Group 4: Open Economy and International Cooperation - China aims for a higher level of openness, promoting multi-faceted cooperation to adapt to global economic changes and challenges, emphasizing the importance of collaborative networks in various fields [8][9] - The need for innovative cooperation mechanisms to address challenges posed by protectionism and geopolitical tensions is highlighted, focusing on quality and resilience in partnerships [9] Group 5: Coordinated Development and Urban-Rural Integration - The strategy of promoting coordinated development aims to address the growing disparities between urban and rural areas, emphasizing the need for a balanced and inclusive development approach [10][11] - Regional integration strategies like the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei collaboration and the Yangtze River Economic Belt are examples of efforts to optimize resource allocation and promote high-quality regional economic layouts [11] Group 6: Green Transformation and Carbon Neutrality - The commitment to achieving carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060 reflects China's responsibility in global climate governance and the need for a comprehensive green transformation [12][13] - Innovation is identified as the core engine for achieving carbon goals, requiring advancements in renewable energy, energy efficiency, and the establishment of supportive institutional frameworks [14] Group 7: Focus on People's Livelihood - The emphasis on prioritizing people's livelihoods reflects the increasing complexity of public demands, necessitating a responsive governance approach that addresses specific community needs [15][16] - Establishing long-term mechanisms to ensure sustainable improvements in public welfare is crucial, with a focus on resource allocation and social governance [16] Group 8: Risk Management - The need to manage risks in key areas such as real estate and local debt is highlighted, with a focus on maintaining stability while actively addressing potential threats [17][18] - A balanced approach to risk management is essential, combining immediate responses with long-term structural improvements to foster sustainable development [18]

Core Viewpoint - The joint notification issued by the Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration aims to enhance collaboration between commerce and finance to boost consumption through 11 policy measures focusing on various consumption sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Measures - The notification emphasizes deepening collaboration between commerce and finance systems, encouraging local departments to enhance communication and cooperation, and promoting a combination of fiscal, credit, and social capital [1]. - It highlights the importance of cross-departmental coordination to implement consumption-boosting measures, with the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China already implementing personal consumption loan interest subsidies since September 1 [1]. - The notification aims to create a "1+N" policy framework to support service consumption, focusing on sectors like home services, hospitality, entertainment, education, tourism, and elderly care [2]. Group 2: Financial Support and Innovation - The notification calls for enhancing financial services for durable goods and digital products, exploring the potential for upgrading commodity consumption [2]. - It encourages the development of innovative financial products and services that integrate into consumption scenarios, particularly in emerging sectors like green consumption and digital consumption [2]. - Financial institutions are urged to create tailored loan products for rural e-commerce and urban consumption hotspots, expanding online channels and strengthening offline services [2]. Group 3: Collaborative Consumption Activities - The notification promotes a collaborative approach among government, finance, and enterprises to conduct diverse consumption promotion activities and share information effectively [3]. - It encourages financial institutions to customize digital RMB smart contract red envelope services based on local consumption policies and needs [3]. - Local commerce departments are advised to establish a list of key projects in the consumption sector and enhance information sharing with financial institutions to facilitate precise service matching [3].

法新社指出，中央经济工作会议备受外界关注，人们可以从中了解中国未来经济政策走向。报道称，此 次会议确定了2026年中国经济工作要抓好的八项重点任务，其中，"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市 场"居于首位。 法新社还关注到，中国的出口持续蓬勃发展。国际货币基金组织(IMF)12月10日预计2025年中国经济增 速将达5%，较10月发布的《世界经济展望报告》上调0.2个百分点。 阿塞拜疆国家新闻社指出中国此次中央经济工作会议分析了当前经济形势，并对2026年经济工作进行了 部署。报道称，会议指出，必须充分挖掘经济潜能，必须坚持政策支持和改革创新并举，必须做到 既"放得活"又"管得好"，必须坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑战。 新加坡亚洲新闻台(CNA)报道称，中国此次中央经济工作会议上，"坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动 能"被列为2026年经济工作的一大重点任务。 外媒关注中央经济工作会议：中国着眼未来，多举措优化经济发展 中新网12月15日电 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行，国际媒体持续关注。多家外媒指 出，此次会议意义重大，明确了2026年中国经济工作政策取向，相信中国将 ...

周五，大奇迹日啊！A股三大指数集体翻红，尤其是创业板指涨了近1%，两市成交额也回到了2万亿以 上。 盘面上热点轮动很快，可控核聚变、商业航天掀起了涨停潮，还得是科技成长！ 1、科技创新与高端制造 这里面还有具体细分，大家可以找找对应的ETF进行布局。 比如，人工智能与算力，会议提到了深入"人工智能+"行动； 其次，高端装备与商业航天。"实施新一轮重点产业链高质量发展行动"直接利好高端装备。国家设立商 业航天司，推动产业高质量发展，使商业航天板块近期持续受到资金关注。 港股，恒生指数涨得更带劲，全天涨了1.75%，表现比A股还强一些。整体看，市场在经历了前几天的 调整后，情绪有所回暖，资金又开始活跃起来了。 重磅经济会议落地，提到了几个重点任务，坚持内需主导、强化科技创新、建设全国统一大市场（反内 卷）、统筹发展与安全。 这里主次很明显了，后续，或者说2026年这几个方向值得重点关注： 还有，工业母机与机器人。作为智能制造的基础，工业母机被"十五五"规划列为优先方向，机器人产业 也受益于政策助推产业化落地。 2、内需与大消费 提振消费是"坚持内需主导"的核心，还有一个逻辑，部分消费板块估值已处于历史中低水平。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of policy coordination to stabilize and promote high-quality economic development, focusing on domestic demand, innovation, reform, and openness as key areas for 2025 [3][4][5] - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference outlined eight key tasks, including building a strong domestic market, enhancing innovation-driven growth, and promoting green transformation [3][4] - The article highlights the ongoing reform of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and the positive outlook for the "Three Oil Giants" (China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC) due to their strong production growth and contribution to energy security [4] Group 2 - The chemical industry is expected to see a recovery in its economic landscape as capital expenditure decreases and demand gradually improves, despite a recent decline in fixed asset investment [5] - The article notes that the semiconductor industry is experiencing growth driven by AI and data center expansion, which is increasing the demand for key materials such as photoresists and electronic chemicals [6] - The rapid development of the humanoid robot industry is creating new demand for high-performance materials, with specific materials like PEEK and MXD6 showing significant potential due to their lightweight and high-strength properties [6]

中央财办分管日常工作的副主任、中央农办主任韩文秀12月13日在中国国际经济交流中心主办的"2025- 2026中国经济年会"上表示，做好明年经济工作，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，加大逆周期和跨周期调 节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。去年9月26日中央政治局会议以来，我国先后出台实施了一系列 政策措施，明年还将根据形势变化出台实施增量政策。 对于中央经济工作会议部署的"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"，韩文秀表示，下一步，要深入实施 提振消费专项行动，制定实施城乡居民增收计划，继续提高城乡居民基础养老金，要以新需求引领新供 给，以新供给创造新需求。适应消费结构变化扩大优质商品和服务的供给，优化"两新"政策实施，给予 地方更多自主空间，要清理消费领域不合理的限制措施，释放服务消费的潜力。 （文章来源：中国证券报） 在货币政策方面，韩文秀表示，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。要灵活搭配、高效运用降准降息等多 种政策工具，保持流动性充裕，促进社会综合融资成本低位运行，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同 经济增长、物价总水平预期目标相匹配。要着力畅通货币政策传导机制，做好科技金融、绿色金融、普 惠金融、养老金融、数字金融五 ...