Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemicals and oil & gas sectors [6]. Core Insights - The overall price gap in the industry has reached a low point, indicating potential recovery in 2026 as supply continues to optimize [1][11]. - The capital expenditure growth in the chemical industry has been declining since June 2025, suggesting a nearing inflection point for supply-side adjustments [2][22]. - The demand for chemical products is shifting from real estate to consumer goods, infrastructure, and emerging technologies, with exports becoming a significant growth driver [10][15][20]. Summary by Sections Supply Side - As of February 2026, the CCPI-raw material price gap was 2470, the lowest since 2012, indicating a potential recovery in profitability for the chemical sector [1][11]. - The capital expenditure in the chemical raw materials and products sector showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 8.0% in 2025, reflecting reduced investment willingness among companies [2][22]. Demand Side - The domestic PMI for February 2026 was reported at 49, indicating a transition in demand drivers from real estate to consumer products and infrastructure [10][15]. - Exports in January and February 2026 totaled $656.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22%, highlighting the competitive advantages of domestic chemical products in global markets [20]. Price Trends - Prices for certain chemical products, such as dispersants and urea, have increased due to tight supply and strong pricing intentions from leading companies [3][43]. - Conversely, prices for products like overseas natural gas and butanol have decreased due to seasonal demand and ample supply [3][43]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on the recovery potential of bulk chemicals and companies with growth in new technologies, as the industry is expected to see an upward trend in 2026 [4][42]. - Recommendations include high-dividend companies and those benefiting from the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, which may lead to rising oil prices [4][42]. Key Recommendations - Specific stocks recommended for investment include: - Yuntianhua (600096 CH) with a target price of 44.66 and a "Buy" rating - Senqilin (002984 CH) with a target price of 26.16 and a "Buy" rating - Sailun Tire (601058 CH) with a target price of 19.63 and a "Buy" rating - Juhua Co. (600160 CH) with a target price of 42.56 and a "Buy" rating - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (3983 HK) with a target price of 3.06 and a "Buy" rating [8].

Report Overview - The report focuses on the transformation of the agricultural products industry from ensuring stable supply to achieving high-quality and efficient development, with policy support playing a key role [2]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The 2026 government work report and two - sessions proposals outline a clear roadmap of "ensuring stable supply, improving quality and efficiency, and enabling technology" for the agricultural products industry. A series of policy combinations covering the entire chain from production, storage, processing to trade will promote the upgrade of China's agriculture [2]. Summary by Section Main Grains - The government sets the grain output target at about 1.4 trillion catties in 2026, and the "15th Five - Year Plan Outline (Draft)" further raises the comprehensive grain production capacity target to about 1.45 trillion catties. The core drivers of the main grain sectors such as rice and wheat come from seed industry revitalization and technological empowerment. With policy support, prices will remain stable with small fluctuations. The industry will transform from "quantity guarantee" to "both quantity and quality improvement" [4]. Corn - Corn is the main variety in the "New Round of 100 - billion - jin Grain Production Capacity Improvement Action". Policies focus on "both quantity and quality, with priority on efficiency". On the supply side, subsidies are stabilized and the seed industry is revitalized to increase yield. On the demand side, deep - processing capacity is promoted in the main production areas, and pig production capacity is regulated. A "market purchase + state support" framework is established to keep prices in a reasonable range. In 2026, the corn market is expected to achieve a virtuous development pattern of "stable quantity, improved quality, stable price, and increased efficiency" [5]. Soybeans - The government aims to consolidate and improve soybean and oilseed production capacity. The 2026 No. 1 Central Document requires expanding soybean production space and improving subsidy policies. Proposals focus on planting mode innovation and variety research and development. Domestic soybean production is expected to increase, and the self - sufficiency rate will rise, reducing dependence on imports [6]. Livestock Farming - The government emphasizes "anti - involution" reform in the livestock farming sector. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs improves early - warning mechanisms. For meat and egg chicken farming, inter - provincial linkage storage mechanisms are explored, and green development is promoted. The industry will transform towards moderate scale, greenness, and high - quality, with increased industry concentration [7]. Imported Oilseeds - The supply security of oilseeds is a focus. China's edible oil self - sufficiency rate is only about 34.2%. Policies include expanding domestic production space, implementing the "Peanut Oil Supply Upgrade Action", and advocating a "reduced - oil" diet. A "domestic - based, diversified" supply pattern will be established [8][11].

焦炭日报：震荡偏强 【冠通期货研究报告】 1 发布日期：2026 年 3 月 16 日 【行情分析】 焦炭库存，上周钢厂因限产令需求下降，导致钢厂内焦炭库存增加 16.29 万吨至 687.55 万吨，处于历年来同期偏高水平，本周焦炭综合库存微降 1.41 万吨至 1050.86 万吨。 利润方面，上周焦炭首轮提降落地，焦企焦化利润随之走低，本周全国 30 家独立焦化厂平均吨焦盈利环比下降 20 元至-3 元/吨。 下游需求，重要会议期间部分高炉面临限产，上周产能利用率持续下降，铁 水产量进一步回落。Mysteel 调研 247 家钢厂日均铁水产量环比减少 6.39 万吨 至 221.2 万吨，处近三年来同期最低。 上游焦煤，产地大多数煤矿已经恢复生产，炼焦煤综合库存小幅增加。 消息方面，1—2 月份，全国房地产开发投资 9612 亿元，同比下降 11.1%， 降幅比上年全年收窄 6.1 个百分点；房地产开发企业房屋施工面积 535372 万平 方米，同比下降 11.7%；房地产开发企业到位资金 13047 亿元，同比下降 16.5% 焦炭首轮提降全面落地，焦企亏损面扩大；重要会议结束之后，钢厂铁水产 量回升 ...

Policy Developments - The National People's Congress plans to amend several laws, including the bidding and procurement laws, to support the establishment of a unified national market[2] - A negative list management mechanism for local fiscal subsidies will be established to clarify prohibited subsidy scenarios for local governments[2] - The State Council is focusing on reducing production capacity in industries such as steel and refining, while optimizing the layout of industries like ethylene and paraxylene[2] Technology Industry - The article in "Qiushi" emphasizes the need for high-quality development of the marine economy, with a focus on innovation and the development of emerging marine industries[3] - The government plans to support high-tech enterprises and small and medium-sized technology firms through tax incentives and special funds[3] Foreign Trade - Recent U.S. trade investigations against multiple economies, including China, cite "overcapacity" and "forced labor" as reasons for the inquiries[3] - The Chinese government is analyzing the implications of these investigations and is prepared to take necessary measures to protect its interests[3] Economic Measures - The government plans to issue 800 billion yuan in special bonds to support key projects, including technology self-reliance and ecological protection[14] - A total of 7,550 billion yuan will be allocated for central budget investments, with a focus on timely project execution[14]

Core Viewpoint - The economic data for January-February 2026 shows a positive start, with significant growth in exports and industrial output, a rebound in fixed asset investment, and improvements in retail sales outside of the automotive sector, indicating a reduced risk of short-term economic downturn [5][6][25]. Group 1: Economic Data Overview - The six major economic indicators for January-February 2026 are all better than December 2025, with exports and industrial output showing significant increases, fixed asset investment turning positive year-on-year, and service production index slightly above previous values [6][5]. - Exports grew by 21.8% year-on-year, significantly higher than December's 6.6% and the annual value of 5.5% [7]. - Industrial output increased by 6.3% year-on-year, continuing last year's strong performance, driven mainly by exports and technological innovation [8][12]. - Fixed asset investment rose by 1.8% year-on-year, a recovery from December's -16% and last year's -3.8% [10][17]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - High-tech industries saw a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, expanding their relative advantage, while equipment manufacturing maintained a high growth rate of 9.3% [12][13]. - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 2.8% year-on-year, with a notable increase of 4.7% when excluding automotive and fuel sales, indicating a rebound in other consumer categories [14][15]. - Fixed asset investment in infrastructure rebounded significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 11.4%, driven by substantial investments in aviation, gas production, and public facilities [16][17]. Group 3: Real Estate Market Trends - Real estate indicators continue to show negative year-on-year growth, but the decline in sales and investment has narrowed, with initial positive changes in housing prices observed [21][22]. - The sales area of commercial housing decreased by 13.5% year-on-year, but the decline is less severe than in previous months [22]. - The price index for new and second-hand residential properties in first-tier cities showed signs of stabilization, with new home prices returning to zero growth for the first time in ten months [23][24]. Group 4: Employment and Consumer Behavior - Employment data slightly exceeded seasonal expectations, with the urban survey unemployment rate decreasing by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [24]. - The rebound in consumer spending, particularly in food and clothing categories, reflects the positive impact of the Spring Festival holiday [14][15]. Group 5: Overall Economic Outlook - The overall economic data for January-February 2026 suggests a strong start, with key indicators supporting a positive outlook, while geopolitical factors continue to complicate the asset landscape [5][25]. - The market may seek new pricing narratives amid ongoing fluctuations, supported by policy dividends and the gradual implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [5][25].

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The basic chemical industry index closed at 5211.65 points, up 0.57% from the previous week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.38% [5][17] - Among the 11 sub-industries in the chemical sector, 11 saw gains while 14 experienced declines. The leading sectors included coal chemicals, carbon black, membrane materials, viscose, and food and feed additives, with weekly increases of 14.80%, 8.81%, 6.07%, 5.29%, and 5.05% respectively. Conversely, polyurethane, inorganic salts, and titanium dioxide saw declines of -8.50%, -6.53%, and -5.37% respectively [5][18] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Chemical Sector Review - The basic chemical industry index closed at 5211.65 points, up 0.57% from last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.38% [17] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4095.45 points, down 0.70% from the previous week [17] - Among 462 stocks in the chemical sector, 209 stocks rose (45%) while 248 stocks fell (54%) [20] 2. Key Chemical Sub-Industry Tracking 2.1 Polyester Filament - The market price of polyester filament saw significant increases, with POY averaging 8900 CNY/ton, up 1591.67 CNY/ton from last week [27] - The average industry operating rate for polyester filament was approximately 85.15% [28] - The average processing margin for POY150/48 was 1852.06 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of 485.86 CNY/ton from the previous week [30] 2.2 Tires - The operating rate for the full steel tire industry was 71.80%, up 6.42 percentage points, while the semi-steel tire industry rate was 78.73%, up 4.20 percentage points [39] - The average price of styrene-butadiene rubber was 15839 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 15.08% [40] - The average price of carbon black was 8366 CNY/ton, with a price increase of 658 CNY/ton from the previous week [41] 3. Chemical Product Price Trends - Among 380 tracked chemical products, 223 saw price increases while 15 experienced declines [24] - The top ten products with the highest price increases included para-nitrochlorobenzene (Anhui) at 11000 CNY, with an 80% increase [25] - The top ten products with the largest price declines included phthalic anhydride (Shandong) at 6975 CNY, with an 11% decrease [26]

Investment Rating - The report rates the construction materials industry as "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2][9]. Core Insights - Legislative efforts to address "involution" competition are underway, which may lead to a more favorable competitive environment in the industry [4]. - Although cement demand has not significantly improved, excessive competition on the supply side is a core reason for the continuous price decline. In 2025, national cement production is projected to be 1.693 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9% [4]. - The "anti-involution" legislation is expected to significantly improve the supply contraction situation in the cement industry, helping to curb low-price competition and overproduction [4]. - The cement industry is linked to carbon trading and energy-saving policies, which may further compress supply in the future [4]. - The report suggests that the "anti-involution" measures will help reduce competitive intensity and improve profitability in the domestic cement industry, with a focus on leading companies such as Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, and Tianshan Cement [4]. Summary by Sections Legislative Developments - The Ministry of Justice has highlighted the importance of optimizing the business environment and addressing issues like local protectionism and "involution" competition in its legislative agenda for the year [4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Cement demand remains weak, with a projected decline in production and demand in 2025. The profitability of the cement industry is closely tied to competition dynamics [4]. Industry Policy Implications - The "anti-involution" legislation is anticipated to provide stronger institutional support to limit low-price competition and enhance effective supply contraction [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential for profitability recovery in the cement industry, recommending attention to leading companies such as Conch Cement (A/H), Huaxin Cement (A/H), Tianshan Cement, and others [4].

Investment Rating - The report rates the construction materials industry as "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2]. Core Insights - Legislative efforts to address "involution" competition are underway, which may lead to a more favorable competitive environment in the industry [4]. - Although cement demand has not significantly improved, excessive competition on the supply side is a primary reason for the continued decline in prices. In 2025, national cement production is projected to be 1.693 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9% [4]. - The "anti-involution" legislation is expected to significantly improve the supply contraction in the cement industry, providing stronger institutional support to curb low-price competition and overproduction [4]. - The cement industry is expected to see improved profitability due to enhanced cash flow and dividend attributes following the "anti-involution" measures [4]. Summary by Sections Legislative Developments - The Ministry of Justice has highlighted the importance of optimizing the business environment and addressing issues such as local protectionism and "involution" competition in its legislative agenda for the year [4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Cement demand remains weak, with a correlation between industry profitability and competition. Regions with better production coordination have shown relatively stronger pricing, while weaker regions continue to struggle with low prices [4]. Industry Policy and Future Outlook - The cement industry association has initiated measures to promote "anti-involution" and stabilize growth, focusing on verifying actual production capacity against registered capacity to combat disordered competition [4]. - The cement sector is linked to carbon trading and energy-saving initiatives, with expectations for stricter controls on inefficient production capacities post-2026 [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the industry such as Conch Cement (A/H), Huaxin Cement (A/H), Tianshan Cement, Tapai Group, Shangfeng Cement, Western Cement (H), and China Resources Cement Technology (H) as potential investment opportunities [4].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7][73]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the Shanghai real estate market is experiencing a recovery, with the easing of purchase restrictions continuing to have a positive effect. Recent data shows that the number of second-hand homes sold in Shanghai reached 1,324 units in a single day, breaking the 1,300 mark for the first time in 315 days [3][12]. - The report emphasizes that the easing of monetary and fiscal policies in China, alongside the recent decline in interest rates, is expected to boost home buying intentions and stabilize the real estate market. The report also notes that the construction materials sector is likely to benefit from supply-side reforms and a potential turning point in the capacity cycle [3][5]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report discusses various government initiatives aimed at supporting major projects and improving living conditions, including increased loan limits for home purchases in several cities and financial incentives for housing upgrades [3][12]. - It mentions that the PPI has been in negative growth for 41 consecutive months, and there is a growing expectation for it to turn positive, which could benefit the construction materials sector [3][12]. High-Frequency Data - As of March 13, 2026, the average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement in China is 323.4 CNY/ton, showing a 0.3% decrease from the previous week and a 19.4% decrease year-on-year [4][13]. - The average price of glass (5.00mm) is reported at 1,158.6 CNY/ton, reflecting a 2.0% increase from the previous week but a 9.7% decrease year-on-year [4][25]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: 1. High-quality companies benefiting from stock renovations, such as Weixing New Materials and Beixin Building Materials [5]. 2. Undervalued stocks with long-term alpha attributes, like Sankeshu and Dongfang Yuhong [5]. 3. Leading cyclical construction material companies that are bottoming out, including Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement [5].

Summary of Zhongtong Express Conference Call Industry Overview - The express delivery industry is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with projections indicating a volume growth rate decline to 14% and 8% in 2025 and 2026 respectively. However, regulatory enhancements and a shift in e-commerce towards value competition are expected to drive an increase in unit prices, with the industry price recovering by 0.27 yuan by the end of 2025 compared to the July low [2][4][6]. Company Strategy and Market Position - Zhongtong Express is refocusing on a "volume-profit balance" strategy, aiming to regain market share after a decline in 2024. The company anticipates a market share recovery to 19.6% by Q4 2025, achieving growth that outpaces the industry while maintaining profit leadership [2][7]. - The company has made significant capital investments, totaling nearly 60 billion yuan, leading to a competitive edge in sorting and transportation costs, which have decreased to 0.68 yuan per package, significantly lower than competitors like Jitu [2][11]. Profitability and Financial Projections - Adjusted net profit forecasts for Zhongtong Express are set at 9.62 billion yuan, 11.03 billion yuan, and 12.41 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The company is assigned a target price of 236 HKD for 2026, reflecting a 25% upside potential, with a rating upgrade to "strong buy" [3][15]. Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The express delivery industry has shown distinct growth phases over the past decade, with a peak growth rate of 30% from 2020 to 2021, followed by a significant drop to around 2% in 2022 due to pandemic disruptions. A recovery of approximately 20% growth is expected in 2023, driven by returns and small package trends [4][5]. - The second half of 2025 saw a notable price increase across the industry, with a recovery in average delivery prices from a low of 7.36 yuan in July to approximately 7.63 yuan by December, positively impacting profitability for major companies [6][8]. Unique Strategies and Innovations - Zhongtong Express employs a unique profit-sharing mechanism and network integration strategy to stabilize its network and ensure effective policy execution. This includes a paid delivery fee system that enhances profitability for delivery points and a "shared construction" model that converts core franchisees into stakeholders [12][14]. - The company is leveraging digital technologies to enhance operational efficiency and product structure, with daily volumes of scattered and reverse packages exceeding 7 million, maintaining a growth rate of around 50% [13][14]. Regulatory and Market Trends - The sustainability of the current "anti-involution" trend in the express delivery industry is supported by shifts in customer demand towards value competition, clear regulatory guidance, and a stable market structure that discourages new entrants [8][9]. Conclusion - Zhongtong Express is positioned to capitalize on the evolving landscape of the express delivery industry, with a focus on quality, market share recovery, and sustainable profitability through strategic investments and innovative operational practices [2][3][15].