| | | | | | | | 半色 会 康 好 日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2026/02/24 | 国贸期货出品 TG 国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 | F03117750 | Z0022680 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | RB2610 | HC2610 | 12609 | J2609 | JM2609 | 6000 | | | | | | (元/吨) ...

Group 1: Macro and Strategy - The report highlights three major industry opportunities for the 2026 bull market: 1) The technology sector led by AI, with a shift from hardware to application expansion, focusing on humanoid robots and AI+ fields 2) The "double low" characteristics of real estate and liquor industries, indicating potential recovery as valuations and institutional holdings are at historical lows 3) Changes in supply-demand dynamics in resource products, supported by global factors, enhancing the value of resource allocations [8][10][11] Group 2: AI Industry - The AI industry is expected to transition from hardware to application, with significant growth in sectors such as governance, finance, manufacturing, education, and healthcare, driven by policy support and technological advancements [9] - The report emphasizes the importance of the AI application acceleration, particularly in edge computing and AI+ related fields, as well as the continued investment in the computing power supply chain [9] Group 3: Nuclear Fusion Industry - The nuclear fusion sector is identified as a key area for future energy systems, with its potential for near-infinite energy, high energy density, and minimal environmental impact, making it a strategic focus for development [12][13] - The report outlines the challenges of achieving controlled nuclear fusion, including the extreme conditions required for the reaction and the need for advanced materials and technologies [13][14] - Various approaches to achieving nuclear fusion are discussed, with magnetic confinement (Tokamak) being the most mature and commercially viable option [14] - The report forecasts significant market potential for nuclear fusion, estimating an investment scale of around 200 billion yuan during the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans, with a total market space of 8-10 trillion yuan if fusion power plants replace 20% of China's total electricity generation [16] Group 4: Financial Strategies - The report suggests a strategic asset allocation of 35% in equities, 25% in bonds, 25% in commodities, and 15% in cash, indicating a recovery phase in the economic cycle [28] - It highlights the importance of emerging markets as a diversification strategy, particularly in the context of high valuations in developed markets [29] Group 5: REITs Market - The REITs market is showing signs of recovery, with significant inflows into commercial real estate REITs and a notable increase in the number of public offerings [21][22][25] - The report notes that data center, consumer, and energy REITs have performed well, indicating a positive trend in these sectors [24]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 国泰君安期货市场分析师 张驰宁 Z0020302 随着春节长假的结束，我们即将迎来农历新年的首个交易周。在咱们休市的这十天里，海外市场并没有 停下脚步，反而积蓄了不少变数。作为分析师，我认为有必要在开盘前为大家梳理一下假期间外围市场 的核心变化。我们不谈枯燥的数据，主要聊聊这些宏观波动，可能会给国内期货市场带来怎样的开局指 引，助大家开年投资的第一仗，打得更有底气。 l 热点事件 【1、美最高法院驳回关税政策】 假期最大的扰动依然来自贸易端。美国关税政策出现戏剧性反复：最高法院裁定部分关税无效，但特朗 普政府随即宣布了10%的全球临时关税作为"补丁"，并紧接着在第二天，把临时关税提到了上限15%。 【3、美总统访华行程】 假期期间，市场有消息称美总统可能于三月末访华，但中方尚未正式回应。这一消息可能引发市场 的"预期博弈"：访华前夕，美方为增加谈判筹码，不排除在贸易等领域继续施压，特别是在关税裁决受 挫后，其展示政策干预能力的动机较强；但为确保访问顺利，双方也可能保持一定克制。 对交易者而言，需紧盯未来一个多月美方在贸易、科技等领域的动向，任何 ...

化工ETF（516020）及其联接基金（012537）跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，成份股覆盖AI算力、反 内卷、机器人、新能源等热门主题。其中近5成仓位集中于大市值龙头股，包括万华化学、盐湖股份 等，分享强者恒强投资机遇；其余五成仓位兼顾布局磷肥及磷化工、氟化工、氮肥等细分领域龙头股， 全面把握化工板块投资机会。 2月24日，春节后的第一个交易日，A股三大指数均大幅高开，化工板块延续节前的反弹趋势，早盘大 幅高开。热门ETF品种——化工ETF（516020）早盘高开高走，场内价格涨逾2.7%。最近5个交易日， 超2.2亿元资金持续净流入化工ETF（516020），积极布局节后行情。 广发证券指出，化工作为典型周期性行业，通常5年一轮周期，经历"盈利上行—产能扩张—盈利触底— 产能出清/需求预期改善"四个阶段。伴随资本开支增速转负、反内卷、海外降息、扩内需，看好"十五 五"开局阶段化工"破晓时分"。此外，全球技术革命持续提速，材料变革迎新机遇。 国海证券指出，反内卷有望重估中国化工行业，后续措施有望使全球化工行业产能扩张大幅放缓。中国 化工行业具有充沛的经营活动现金流净额，一旦扩张放缓，潜在股息率将大幅提升， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the impact of technological elements showcased during the Spring Festival Gala on the A-share market, particularly in driving short-term sentiment and reinforcing long-term industry trends, especially in the robotics sector [2][3] - Analysts suggest that the Spring Festival Gala serves as a "stock selection guide," indicating strong performance in technology-related sectors post-festival, with a focus on companies with strong earnings certainty [3][4] - The overall sentiment in the A-share market is expected to improve post-festival, with analysts predicting a new upward trend driven by favorable policies and market conditions [5][6] Group 2 - The Spring Festival Gala featured significant technological elements, including robots, AI applications, and large-scale drone shows, which are expected to influence investor sentiment and market performance [3][4] - Analysts believe that the upcoming period will see a shift towards sectors benefiting from improved supply-demand dynamics and industry profit recovery, with a focus on materials, chemicals, and technology [6] - There is an emphasis on the importance of individual stock performance over broad market indices, suggesting a "light index, heavy stock" strategy for investors [6]

马年投资如何布局？市场主线又将如何演绎？ 站在马年的投资新起点，面对宏观环境、产业趋势与市场风格的多重变化，投资者该如何把握机遇、规避风险？为 此，证券时报特邀5位资深基金经理，共同前瞻马年投资机遇，解读核心赛道机会，为广大投资者梳理全年配置思路 与方向。 平安基金神爱前：震荡向上行情有望延续，看好科技与周期等机会 展望马年市场的投资机会，平安基金权益投资总监神爱前认为市场面临较好的内外环境，系统风险较小，投资重心在 于寻找结构性行业与个股机会。 神爱前分析，一方面，需要着重观察宏观企稳改善的迹象与预期，2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，宏观政策更加积极 有为，尤其国内供强需弱的矛盾有望逐步缓解。 另一方面，整体上市公司盈利预计将会改善。2025三季度更能反映真实需求的整体上市公司收入已经企稳向上，但整 体上市公司毛利率仍在回落，表明价格仍然是盈利的主要拖累项。但2025年下半年以来，在"反内卷"政策的影响下， 周期资源品的价格已出现改善，2026年PPI有望同比逐渐回升，并带动上市公司盈利实质性回升。 再就是，外部环境预计偏暖，2026年关税扰动消退，外部环境摩擦可能性减小。同时美联储降息周期开启，主要经济 ...

分析师：张刚 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -15% -8% -2% 5% 12% 18% 25% 31% 2025.02 2025.06 2025.10 2026.02 上证指数 深证成指 登记编码：S0730511010001 证券研究报告-晨会聚焦 发布日期：2026 年 02 月 24 日 【财经要闻】 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 4,082.07 | -1.26 | | 深证成指 | | 14,100.19 | -1.28 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,660.41 | -1.25 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 4,556.33 | -1.38 | ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to continue its spring rally in 2026, driven by policy guidance and industry trends, with a focus on technology and resource sectors [1][3] - The market sentiment is currently strong, with limited adjustment pressure, and the potential for a rebound in market indices post-Spring Festival [2][3] - The AI sector is highlighted as a key investment opportunity, with expectations for significant advancements and commercialization in 2026 [3][4] Group 2 - Resource sectors, including chemicals and precious metals, are gaining attention from institutions, particularly due to rising international prices for gold and oil [4][5] - The geopolitical situation may provide a short-term boost to oil prices, while precious metals are seen as a safe haven for investors [5][6] - The upcoming peak season for industrial production and construction in March and April is expected to validate price increases and influence market trends [6]

Core Viewpoint - The overseas markets showed a slight rebound during the Spring Festival holiday, with U.S. stocks recovering and commodities performing strongly, driven by geopolitical disturbances that significantly increased the prices of oil, gold, and copper. The performance of Chinese assets, particularly the FTSE China A50 index futures, also indicated a positive trend, suggesting a potentially favorable start for the A-share market in the Year of the Horse [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The overseas non-U.S. assets maintained a strong performance during the holiday, indicating a high risk appetite among overseas investors, which is expected to benefit the A-share market post-holiday [5]. - The inflow of funds into the market remains unchanged, with a notable decrease in household deposits and an increase in non-bank financial institution deposits, suggesting a shift towards equity markets [6]. - Historical data shows that the A-share market typically performs well in the 20 trading days following the Spring Festival, with a 75% probability of the CSI All A Index rising during this period [9]. Group 2: Sector Focus and Investment Opportunities - The focus for investment should be on sectors benefiting from AI and resource commodities, with a particular emphasis on the robotics and AI technology applications showcased during the Spring Festival [13][14]. - The traditional sectors such as real estate and liquor are expected to see a recovery as their valuations are at historical lows, supported by improving fundamentals and policy catalysts [11]. - The "反内卷" (anti-involution) policy is anticipated to enhance the supply dynamics of resource commodities, making them attractive for investment [11]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on the technology sector, particularly in robotics and AI applications, as well as cyclical sectors like chemicals, construction materials, and machinery, which are expected to benefit from rising prices and improved demand [15]. - The market is entering a configuration phase where "technology + cyclical" remains the main theme, with technology sectors likely to respond first to market catalysts [15].

春节假期最后一天港股的亮眼表现，令机构们对A股马年"开门红"充满期待。 "2026年的春晚是AI含量浓度最高的一年，也是AI应用的重要分水岭与节点。"华鑫证券传媒新消费首席 分析师朱珠在研报中称，AI未来的竞争将更加激烈，各家将持续推出新模型、新产品，春节后的AI板 块有望持续演绎，传媒有望承接AI应用新红利。 机构普遍指出，春节后A股科技行情的驱动核心主要来自两方面：一是节后将迎来政策的密集落地，例 如"人工智能+"、数字经济发展规划等节后预期将加速推进；二是美股与港股的映射效应显著，春节期 间海外市场表现强势的科技板块，节后通常能带动A股相关标的走强。 此外，春节后短期市场风格往往向科技成长倾斜。据华金证券统计，春节后5或10个交易日内科技成长 行业走势相对占优。近10年内春节后5个交易日内涨幅进入前三次数最多的行业主要为计算机（5次）、 电子（4次）、通信（3次）、传媒（3次）等科技成长行业，春节后10个交易日内的涨幅榜也由科技成 长行业主导。 2月23日，恒生指数、恒生科技指数双双走强。截至收盘，恒生指数上涨2.53%，报27081.91点；恒生科 技指数涨3.34%，报5385.35点。港股科技股、 ...