Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are expected to continue rising in 2026 due to macroeconomic factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, dollar credit crises, geopolitical conflicts, and central bank gold purchases [1][2] - The recent volatility in gold prices is characterized as a "roller coaster" market, influenced by the rapid price increases and subsequent corrections expected to last for 2-3 months [1] - Central banks have been consistently increasing their gold reserves, driven by motives such as reserve diversification, hedging against geopolitical risks, and enhancing monetary confidence management [1] Group 2 - The long-term support for gold prices is anticipated from slow variables like Federal Reserve rate cuts and central bank purchases, alongside short-term catalysts from geopolitical conflicts and currency credit concerns [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual ratings for each commodity: - Bullish: Methanol, Urea [3][37] - Bearish: LPG, L, PP, PVC, MEG, Asphalt, Glass, Soda Ash [1][15][19] - Neutral: Crude Oil, Natural Gas, PTA [1][6][26] 2. Report's Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East lead to short - term volatile and slightly stronger prices. However, the supply - surplus pattern remains, and with the arrival of the demand off - season, there is still downward pressure on oil prices [1][8]. - **LPG**: The cost - end oil price rebounds due to geopolitical disturbances in the short term, but the geopolitical premium is decreasing. The supply of liquefied gas is decreasing, and the chemical demand support is weakening. The inventory shows some positive factors [1]. - **L**: The basis weakens, and the market is in a bearish consolidation. Linear production is at a high level, and the supply is expected to continue to increase, with a bearish fundamental outlook [15][18]. - **PP**: The cost of propane and propylene fluctuates strongly. The supply - demand drive is insufficient before the festival. The current supply - demand is weak, and the PDH profit is low, providing cost support [19][22]. - **PVC**: The decline space of liquid caustic soda is limited. The chlor - alkali comprehensive gross profit is at a low level, providing bottom - cost support. Short - term export rush continues, but high inventory restricts the upward space, and the market is expected to fluctuate before the festival [23][25]. - **PTA**: The valuation is reasonable, and the processing fee has improved. The supply - side device maintenance is in line with the plan, and the downstream demand is seasonally weak. The 1 - 2 month inventory is slightly accumulated, but the overall expectation is positive [26][27]. - **MEG**: The valuation is low. The domestic device load increases, and the overseas device maintenance plan increases. The downstream demand is seasonally weak, and the inventory is expected to accumulate in 1 - 2 months. The short - term demand is under pressure, but the fundamentals are expected to improve in 3 - 4 months [29][30]. - **Methanol**: The domestic device starts to increase, and the overseas device load is expected to increase. The demand shows signs of improvement, and the cost has support. The fundamentals are slightly loose, but geopolitical conflicts still have uncertainties [32][34]. - **Urea**: The overall start - up load is rising, and the demand is strong in the short term. However, as the downstream demand enters the holiday off - season, the support is expected to weaken. The price is restricted by "export quota system" and "price stabilization policy" [37][38]. - **LNG**: The impact of the cold wave in the United States decreases, and the demand - side support gradually weakens, resulting in a weakening gas price trend [41][44]. - **Asphalt**: The cost - end oil price fluctuates disorderly. The asphalt valuation is high, and the supply - side uncertainty increases. Attention should be paid to the import situation of asphalt raw materials [46][50]. - **Glass**: The warehouse receipts increase, and the market is in a low - level consolidation. The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory is slightly accumulated. Supply reduction is needed to digest the high inventory [51][54]. - **Soda Ash**: The warehouse receipts continue to increase. The real - estate demand is weak, and the heavy - alkali demand support is insufficient. The supply is under pressure, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [55][58]. 3. Summary of Each Commodity Crude Oil - **Price**: WTI主力 fell 0.62% to $63.96/barrel, Brent主力 fell 0.35% to $68.8/barrel, and SC主力 rose 1.39% to 472.5 yuan/barrel [7]. - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ maintains the production policy, and the production in the Middle East and the United States shows different trends. Indian imports increase, and the US inventory shows different changes in different types of oil [9]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand fundamentals will improve after the first quarter. In the short term, it fluctuates and adjusts, and the SC price range is [465 - 485] [10]. LPG - **Price**: On February 10, the PG main contract closed at 4203 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. Spot prices in different regions showed different changes [11][12]. - **Fundamentals**: It is mainly affected by the cost - end oil price. The supply is stable, the downstream chemical demand weakens, and the inventory accumulates [13]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - to - long term, the price center is expected to move down. In the short term, the cost - end oil price is uncertain, and the fundamental outlook is bearish. The PG price range is [4200 - 4300] [14]. L - **Price**: L05 closed at 6775 yuan/ton, up 0.8% [16]. - **Fundamentals**: The basis weakens, and the linear production is at a high level. The supply is expected to increase, and the fundamental outlook is bearish [18]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious in operation before the festival and pay attention to the verification after the festival. The L price range is [6650 - 6850] [18]. PP - **Price**: PP05 closed at 6678 yuan/ton, up 0.9% [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost of propane and propylene fluctuates strongly. The supply - demand is weak, and the PDH profit is low, providing cost support [22]. - **Strategy**: Light - position and cautious operation before the festival. Pay attention to the future demand verification. The PP price range is [6600 - 6800] [22]. PVC - **Price**: V05 closed at 4971 yuan/ton, down 0.4% [23]. - **Fundamentals**: The decline space of liquid caustic soda is limited. The chlor - alkali comprehensive gross profit is at a low level, and the high inventory restricts the upward space. The market is expected to fluctuate before the festival [25]. - **Strategy**: Light - position operation. The V price range is [4850 - 5050] [25]. PTA - **Price**: TA05 closed at 5166 yuan/ton, at the 85.7% quantile level in the past three months [27]. - **Fundamentals**: The valuation is reasonable, the supply - side device maintenance is in line with the plan, and the downstream demand is seasonally weak. The 1 - 2 month inventory is slightly accumulated [27]. - **Strategy**: The fundamental expectation is positive. Pay attention to buying on significant pullbacks. The TA05 price range is [5110 - 5220] [28]. MEG - **Price**: EG05 closed at 3959 yuan/ton [29]. - **Fundamentals**: The valuation is low. The domestic device load increases, and the overseas device maintenance plan increases. The downstream demand is seasonally weak, and the inventory is expected to accumulate in 1 - 2 months [30]. - **Strategy**: Layout long positions on dips in the near - term. The EG05 price range is [3680 - 3780] [31]. Methanol - **Price**: The main contract is at a high valuation level in the past three months [34]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic device starts to increase, and the overseas device load is expected to increase. The demand shows signs of improvement, and the cost has support. The fundamentals are slightly loose, but geopolitical conflicts still have uncertainties [34]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions. The MA05 price range is [2219 - 2369] [36]. Urea - **Price**: The main contract closed at 1776 yuan/ton, at the 77.8% quantile level in the past year [39]. - **Fundamentals**: The overall start - up load is rising, and the demand is strong in the short term. However, as the downstream demand enters the holiday off - season, the support is expected to weaken. The price is restricted by "export quota system" and "price stabilization policy" [38][39]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious in chasing up. The UR05 price range is [1760 - 1790] [40]. LNG - **Price**: On February 9, the NG main contract closed at $3.140/million British thermal units, down 7.78% [43]. - **Fundamentals**: The impact of the cold wave in the United States decreases, and the demand - side support gradually weakens, resulting in a weakening gas price trend [44]. - **Strategy**: The demand supports the gas price in the consumption peak season, but the supply is relatively sufficient, and the gas price is under pressure. The NG price range is [2.900 - 3.400] [45]. Asphalt - **Price**: On February 10, the BU main contract closed at 3343 yuan/ton, up 0.27% [48]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost - end oil price fluctuates disorderly. The asphalt valuation is high, and the supply - side uncertainty increases. Attention should be paid to the import situation of asphalt raw materials [49][50]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and prevent risks. The BU price range is [3300 - 3400] [50]. Glass - **Price**: FG05 closed at 1070 yuan/ton, down 0.7% [52]. - **Fundamentals**: The warehouse receipts increase, and the market is in a low - level consolidation. The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory is slightly accumulated. Supply reduction is needed to digest the high inventory [54]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious in chasing up before the cold - repair is further implemented. The FG price range is [1040 - 1090] [54]. Soda Ash - **Price**: SA05 closed at 1171 yuan/ton, down 0.8% [56]. - **Fundamentals**: The warehouse receipts continue to increase. The real - estate demand is weak, and the heavy - alkali demand support is insufficient. The supply is under pressure [58]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rallies before the maintenance is further intensified. The SA price range is [1150 - 1200] [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Crude Oil**: Oscillatory adjustment [1] - **LPG**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **L**: Bearish continuation [1] - **PP**: Bearish continuation [1] - **PVC**: Range-bound oscillation [1] - **PX/PTA**: High-level consolidation [2] - **MEG**: Cautiously bearish [2] - **Methanol**: Cautiously bullish [3] - **Urea**: Cautiously bullish [3] - **Natural Gas**: Oscillatory consolidation [6] - **Asphalt**: Cautiously bearish [6] - **Glass**: Low-level oscillation [6] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish continuation [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are fluctuating, causing short-term oil prices to be oscillatory and slightly stronger. However, the oversupply pattern remains unturned, and with the arrival of the off-season for demand, there is still downward pressure on oil prices [1][9]. - **LPG**: Cost support is weakening, and the chemical demand is also decreasing, leading to a weakening of LPG [1]. - **L**: Upstream inventory has dropped to a low level compared to the same period. During the pre - holiday period, there is a vacuum in fundamental demand. With the decline in ethane cost and an expected increase in supply, the fundamentals are bearish [1][20]. - **PP**: Propane prices are rising, strengthening the cost support of PDH. Before the holiday, there is insufficient supply - demand drive. The current fundamentals show both weak supply and demand, with a parking ratio of 20%, alleviating supply pressure. PDH profits are still at a low level, providing cost support [1][24]. - **PVC**: The March Formosa Plastics quotation has increased, and the profit of Shandong ECU has been significantly compressed. The downward space for liquid caustic soda is limited. Although there is short - term export rush, the high - inventory structure is difficult to change, suppressing the upward space. It is expected to oscillate before the holiday [1][28]. - **PX/PTA**: The valuation level is reasonable. The supply side has some device changes, and downstream demand is seasonally weak. The cost side of PX is in a weak balance. Although there is some inventory accumulation in January - February, the outlook is positive [2][30]. - **MEG**: The overall valuation is low. The supply side has an increase in domestic load, and overseas device maintenance is increasing. Downstream demand is seasonally weak, and there is inventory accumulation pressure in January - February. However, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve from March to April [2][33]. - **Methanol**: The social and port inventories are decreasing. The domestic methanol device starts to increase the load, and overseas devices are expected to increase the load. The demand side has improved, and there is cost support. The fundamentals are slightly loose, but geopolitical conflicts still have uncertainties [3][37]. - **Urea**: The overall profit is good, and the start - up load is continuously increasing. The demand side is short - term strong, but downstream demand is entering the holiday off - season, and the support is expected to weaken. Under the background of "export quota system" and "supply guarantee and price stabilization", the price has a ceiling and a floor [3][41]. - **Natural Gas**: The cold wave has weakened, and the export volume has increased. The short - term demand boost from the cold wave has been priced in, and the supply side is recovering, leading to an oscillatory adjustment of gas prices [6]. - **Asphalt**: The cost side of oil prices is oscillating and adjusting, and the basis is weak. The disk valuation is high, and the short - term trend is weak. The supply - demand is generally loose, and the demand has entered the off - season [6]. - **Glass**: The fundamentals maintain a pattern of both weak supply and demand. The enterprise inventory is slightly increasing at a high level, and the demand has entered the seasonal off - season. The daily melting volume has decreased, and more supply reduction is needed to digest the high inventory [6][57]. - **Soda Ash**: The number of warehouse receipts has increased, and industrial hedging is exerting pressure. The real - estate demand is continuously weak, and the heavy - soda demand support is insufficient. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the supply is expected to be under pressure [6][61]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices were oscillatory and slightly stronger. WTI rose 1.27%, Brent rose 1.45%, and the domestic SC rose 0.06% [8]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term drivers are the repeated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with high uncertainties. The core driver is the oversupply of crude oil in the off - season, and global crude oil inventories are accelerating the accumulation. The supply side: OPEC+ maintains the production policy, and the US crude oil production is increasing. The demand side: India's crude oil imports in December increased by 1.6% month - on - month. The inventory side: US crude oil inventories decreased, while gasoline inventories increased, and distillate inventories decreased [9][10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand fundamentals will improve after the first quarter. In the short - term, it is oscillatory and adjusting, with increased volatility. Pay attention to geopolitical developments in the Middle East. The SC range is [465 - 485] [11]. LPG - **Market Review**: On February 9, the PG main contract closed at 4210 yuan/ton, a 0.43% decrease. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4470 (+20) yuan/ton, 4475 (+0) yuan/ton, and 4765 (-65) yuan/ton respectively [14]. - **Basic Logic**: The trend is mainly anchored to the cost - side oil prices. In the short - term, oil prices are rebounding due to geopolitical disturbances, but are under pressure in the long - term. The supply is stable, downstream chemical demand is weakening, and inventory is accumulating. The number of warehouse receipts has increased [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the price center is expected to continue to decline. In the short - term, the cost - side oil prices have increased uncertainties. The PG range is [4150 - 4250] [16]. L - **Market Review**: The L05 contract closed at 6721 yuan/ton, a 1.3% decrease. The L05 basis was - 131 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was - 56 yuan/ton [18][19]. - **Basic Logic**: Upstream inventory is at a low level compared to the same period. During the pre - holiday period, there is a vacuum in fundamental demand. With the decline in ethane cost and an expected increase in supply, the fundamentals are bearish. The range is [6650 - 6850] [20]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP05 contract closed at 6691 yuan/ton, a 0.2% increase. The PP05 basis was - 56 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 32 yuan/ton [22][23]. - **Basic Logic**: Propane prices are rising, strengthening the cost support of PDH. Before the holiday, there is insufficient supply - demand drive. The current fundamentals show both weak supply and demand, with a parking ratio of 20%, alleviating supply pressure. PDH profits are still at a low level, providing cost support. The range is [6550 - 6750] [24]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V05 contract closed at 4981 yuan/ton, a 1.4% decrease. The V05 basis was - 221 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was - 113 yuan/ton [26][27]. - **Basic Logic**: The March Formosa Plastics quotation has increased, and the profit of Shandong ECU has been significantly compressed. The downward space for liquid caustic soda is limited. Although there is short - term export rush, the high - inventory structure is difficult to change, suppressing the upward space. It is expected to oscillate before the holiday. The range is [4850 - 5050] [28]. PX/PTA - **Basic Logic**: In terms of valuation, TA05 is at a relatively high level in the past three months. The supply side has some device changes, and downstream demand is seasonally weak. The cost side of PX is in a weak balance. There is some inventory accumulation in January - February [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The fundamentals are expected to improve, but short - term drivers are limited. Pay attention to capital behavior. Buy on significant corrections for the 05 contract. The TA05 range is [5110 - 5220] [31]. MEG - **Market Review**: The EG05 contract closed at 3959 yuan/ton. The East China basis was - 113 (-10) yuan/ton. - **Basic Logic**: The overall valuation is low. The supply side has an increase in domestic load, and overseas device maintenance is increasing. Downstream demand is seasonally weak, and there is inventory accumulation pressure in January - February. However, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve from March to April [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on the near - term contracts on dips. The EG05 range is [3680 - 3780] [34]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol main contract is at a high valuation level in the past three months. The comprehensive profit is - 250.9 (-15.9) yuan/ton, and the East China basis is - 39 (-28) [37]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic methanol device starts to increase the load, and overseas devices are expected to increase the load. The demand side has improved, and there is cost support. The fundamentals are slightly loose, but geopolitical conflicts still have uncertainties [37]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The January arrival volume slightly exceeded expectations, domestic start - up is at a high level, and port inventory has decreased. The demand side has stopped falling. Hold long positions. The MA05 range is [2219 - 2369] [39]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea main contract closed at 1776 yuan/ton. The Shandong small - particle basis was 4 (+2) yuan/ton, and the UR5 - 9 spread was 38 yuan/ton [42]. - **Basic Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low. The overall start - up load is continuously increasing. The demand side is short - term strong, but downstream demand is entering the holiday off - season, and the support is expected to weaken. Under the background of "export quota system" and "supply guarantee and price stabilization", the price has a ceiling and a floor [41]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Supply and demand are both strong, but downstream demand is entering the holiday off - season, and the support is expected to weaken. Be cautious about chasing up. The UR05 range is [1760 - 1790] [43]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On February 6, the NG main contract closed at 3.405 dollars/million British thermal units, a 3.16% decrease. The US Henry Hub spot price was 4.030 (-0.600) dollars/million British thermal units, the Dutch TTF spot price was 13.417 (+0.815) dollars/million British thermal units, and the Chinese LNG market price was 3821 (-75) yuan/ton [46]. - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is that the impact of the US cold wave has decreased, and the demand - side support is gradually weakening, leading to a weakening of gas prices. The cost - profit situation shows a decline in domestic LNG retail profit. The supply side: US LNG exports decreased in January, and the number of natural gas rigs increased. The demand side: Japan's LNG imports decreased in 2025. The inventory side: US natural gas inventories decreased [47]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the Northern Hemisphere winter, the demand for combustion and heating increases, but the supply side is relatively sufficient, putting pressure on gas prices. The NG range is [2.900 - 3.400] [48]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On February 9, the BU main contract closed at 3324 yuan/ton, a 1.54% decrease. The market prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 3210 (-30) yuan/ton, 3290 (+20) yuan/ton, and 3310 (+0) yuan/ton respectively [51]. - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is the repeated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, causing oil prices to be oscillatory and slightly stronger. The cost - profit situation shows an increase in asphalt comprehensive profit. The supply side: The domestic asphalt production in February 2026 decreased. The demand side: The asphalt import and export volume increased in 2025. The inventory side: The social inventory of 70 sample enterprises increased [52]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation is high, and the supply - side uncertainty has increased. Pay attention to the import situation of asphalt raw materials. Be cautious about geopolitical risks. The BU range is [3300 - 3400] [53]. Glass - **Market Review**: The FG05 contract closed at 1078 yuan/ton, a 0.6% increase. The FG05 basis was - 52 yuan/ton, and the FG59 spread was - 99 yuan/ton [55][56]. - **Basic Logic**: Pay attention to the sustainability of supply reduction. The fundamentals maintain a pattern of both weak supply and demand. The enterprise inventory is slightly increasing at a high level, and the demand has entered the seasonal off - season. The daily melting volume has decreased, and more supply reduction is needed to digest the high inventory. Be cautious about chasing up before further cold - repair is realized. The FG range is [1030 - 1080] [57]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA05 contract closed at 1181 yuan/ton, a 0.8% decrease. The SA05 basis was - 55 yuan/ton, and the SA59 spread was - 63 yuan/ton [59][60]. - **Basic Logic**: The number of warehouse receipts has increased, and industrial hedging is exerting pressure. The real - estate demand is continuously weak, and the heavy - soda demand support is insufficient. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the supply is expected to be under pressure. Short - sell on rallies before further maintenance intensifies. The SA range is [1150 - 1200] [61].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-02-10 ⾼位震荡中修复，配置资⾦回补⽀撑价 格 贵⾦属在前期剧烈波动后出现修复性反弹，⻩⾦重返关键整数位附近，⽩ 银同步回升但弹性更⼤。短期交易逻辑由单边趋势转向⾼波动下的结构性 再平衡，配置与对冲资⾦回补对价格形成⽀撑，宏观与政策不确定性仍是 核⼼背景。 黄金观点：高位震荡中企稳修复，中期多头逻辑未被破坏。 逻辑：前期去杠杆与情绪踩踏结束后，黄金在关键价位附近获得配置 盘承接。官方需求延续，对价格波动的容忍度较高，压缩了下行空 间。海外方面，市场继续围绕美国就业与通胀数据交易，美联储政策 路径与独立性讨论反复，对实际利率与美元形成扰动，利好黄金的防 御与配置属性。 展望：在宏观数据未形成一致指向前，黄金更可能维持高位宽幅震 荡，回调阶段关注配置资金承接力度，中期仍受官方购金与美元信用 逻辑支撑。 展望：短期随黄金震荡偏强运行，但需警惕快速拉升后的技术性回 吐，中期仍取决于贵金属整体配置需求与宏观风险定价。 风险提示：特朗普政策变化；美联储货币政策变化；地缘冲突变化。 白银观点：波动显著放大，跟随黄金修复但节奏更快。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The dovish remarks of the San Francisco Fed President eased market expectations of the Fed's hawkish policy, leading to a weaker dollar and a rise in the precious metals sector. As of February 9, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 545.05 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 10.58%, and the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 438.15 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 7.59% [2]. - The price of platinum is expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium - to - long term due to a weaker dollar and positive macro - expectations. The report suggests seizing opportunities to go long on platinum and short on palladium [2]. - The price of palladium is also expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium - to - long term, supported by short - term spot shortages and positive macro - environment [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - **Price Performance**: As of February 9, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 545.05 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 10.58% [2]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the market is in a wide - range volatile consolidation phase due to factors such as sanctions on Russian platinum - group metals, geopolitical issues, and Fed rate - cut expectations. In the long term, the long - term weakening trend of the US dollar credit is conducive to the release of price elasticity. The platinum - to - palladium ratio has fallen to a relatively low level this week, and it is recommended to consider long - platinum and short - palladium opportunities [2]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and bullish. The supply - demand fundamentals are healthy, and the macro - expectations are positive [2]. Palladium - **Price Performance**: As of February 9, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 438.15 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 7.59% [2]. - **Main Logic**: There is uncertainty on the supply side, with the US import investigation of Russian unforged palladium pending and Europe considering new sanctions on Russian palladium. The palladium lease rate has been rising, and the spot shortage supports the price. On the demand side, there is still structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand is expected to be loose, the short - term spot shortage and Fed rate - cut expectations provide clear support for the price [3]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and bullish. Supported by short - term spot shortages and a positive macro - environment [3]. Index Information - **Special Index**: The commodity index was 2374.89, up 0.70%; the commodity 20 index was 2710.51, up 0.96%; the industrial products index was 2278.80, up 0.21%; the PPI commodity index was 1404.35, up 0.58% [49]. - **Sector Index**: The non - ferrous metals index on February 9, 2026, was 2681.11, with a daily increase of 1.12%, a 5 - day increase of 0.10%, a 1 - month decrease of 5.82%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.18% [50].

研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2026 年 2 月 9 日 航运日报 第一部分 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） 期货从业证号： F3084078 投资咨询证号： Z0018656 联系方式： :jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn | 银河期货集运指数 | | | | （欧线） 日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2602 | 1,756.0 | 16.1 | 0.93% | 124.0 | -44.39% | 1,437.0 | 0.56% | | EC2604 | 1,238.0 | 6.8 | 0.55% | 14,384.0 | -51.16% | 31,132.0 | -0.94% | | EC2606 | 1,553.0 | 22.0 | 1.44% | 2,206.0 | -54.98% | 14,726.0 | -0.5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Crude Oil**: Oscillatory adjustment [1] - **LPG**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **L**: Short position continues [1] - **PP**: Short position continues [1] - **PVC**: Range-bound oscillation [1] - **PX/PTA**: High-level consolidation [2] - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: Cautiously bearish [2] - **Methanol**: Cautiously bullish [3] - **Urea**: Cautiously bullish [3] - **Natural Gas**: Oscillatory consolidation [6] - **Asphalt**: Cautiously bearish [6] - **Glass**: Low-level oscillation [6] - **Soda Ash**: Short position continues [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - Wait for the outcome of the US-Iran negotiation. Oil prices are adjusting oscillatory. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is uncertain, and the supply surplus pattern remains unturned. There is still downward pressure on oil prices [1]. - The cost support for LPG weakens, and the chemical demand also weakens, leading to a downward trend [1]. - The upstream inventory of L drops to the low level of the same period. During the pre - holiday fundamental demand vacuum period, cautious operation is needed, and the post - holiday verification situation should be concerned [1]. - PP follows the cost in the short term. The supply - demand is weak, and the supply pressure is relieved. The cost has support, and the subsequent demand verification situation should be concerned [1]. - The weekly export order volume of PVC weakens, and the social inventory reaches a new high. The long - term supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to reverse [1]. - The valuation of PX/PTA is reasonable. The supply slightly increases, the downstream demand is seasonally weak, and the cost follows the oil price. The outlook is positive [2]. - The valuation of MEG is overall low. The supply increases, the demand is seasonally weak, and the inventory accumulates in the short term. The outlook is expected to improve in March - April [2]. - The social and port inventories of methanol are being depleted. The supply is slightly loose, the demand improves, and the cost has support [3]. - The comprehensive profit of urea is good. The supply is under pressure, the demand is temporarily supported, and the price is range - bound under the policy [3]. - The cold wave weakens while the export increases, and the natural gas price is in consolidation [6]. - The asphalt valuation is high, the supply - demand is loose, and the demand enters the off - season, so the price has room for compression [6]. - The glass market maintains a weak supply - demand pattern. The inventory accumulates slightly, and the supply needs to be further reduced to digest the high inventory [6]. - The demand for heavy soda ash declines, the inventory rises, the supply is under pressure, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: On the previous Friday, international oil prices adjusted oscillatory. WTI rose 0.41%, Brent rose 0.74%, and domestic SC fell 0.36% [7][8]. - **Basic Logic**: In the short term, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is uncertain, waiting for the outcome of the US - Iran negotiation. The core driving factor is the supply surplus in the off - season, and the global crude oil inventory is accumulating rapidly [9]. - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ maintains the production policy. The geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East rises. The US crude oil production increases, and the production of Kazakhstan's Tengiz oilfield recovers. India's crude oil imports in December increased by 1.6% month - on - month. As of the week ending January 30, the US crude oil inventory decreased by 3.45 million barrels, gasoline inventory increased by 0.684 million barrels, distillate inventory decreased by 5.552 million barrels, and the strategic crude oil reserve increased by 0.214 million barrels [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand fundamentals will improve after the first quarter. Pay attention to the production changes in non - OPEC+ regions. In the short - term, it is in oscillatory adjustment, and the fluctuation increases. Pay attention to the geopolitical progress in the Middle East. SC focuses on the range of [460 - 480] [11]. LPG - **Market Review**: On February 6, the PG main contract closed at 4,228 yuan/ton, up 0.74% month - on - month. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,450 (-20) yuan/ton, 4,475 (+29) yuan/ton, and 4,830 (-15) yuan/ton respectively [12]. - **Basic Logic**: The price mainly depends on the cost - end oil price. In the short - term, the oil price rebounds due to geopolitical disturbances, but is under pressure in the long - term. The supply is stable, the downstream chemical demand weakens, and the inventory accumulates [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the price center is expected to move down. In the short - term, the oil price is uncertain, and the fundamentals are bearish. PG focuses on the range of [4150 - 4250] [14]. L - **Market Review**: The prices of L01, L05 (main contract), and L09 increased by 0.2%, 0.5%, and 0.5% respectively. The main contract's basis was - 192 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was - 52 yuan/ton [17][18]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream inventory drops to the low level of the same period. During the pre - holiday fundamental demand vacuum period, cautious operation is needed. The cost - end oil and ethane prices fall, the linear production remains at a high level, and the supply is expected to increase [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: L focuses on the range of [6700 - 6850] [19]. PP - **Market Review**: The prices of PP01, PP05 (main contract), and PP09 increased by 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.2% respectively. The main contract's basis was - 56 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 32 yuan/ton [21][22]. - **Basic Logic**: In the short - term, it follows the cost. The off - season leads to inventory accumulation in the upstream and mid - stream. The supply - demand is weak, the shutdown ratio is 20%, the supply pressure is relieved, and the cost has support. Pay attention to the subsequent demand verification [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PP focuses on the range of [6550 - 6750] [23]. PVC - **Market Review**: The prices of V01, V05 (main contract), and V09 decreased by 1.3%, 1.4%, and 1.3% respectively. The main contract's basis was - 221 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was - 113 yuan/ton [25][26]. - **Basic Logic**: The weekly export order volume weakens, and the social inventory reaches a new high. The chlor - alkali comprehensive gross profit remains at a low level, and the bottom cost has support. The long - term supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to reverse [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: V focuses on the range of [4850 - 5050] [27]. PX/PTA - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is reasonable. The supply slightly increases, the downstream demand is seasonally weak, and the cost follows the oil price. PTA accumulates inventory seasonally in January - February, but the outlook is positive [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The fundamentals are expected to improve. Pay attention to the capital behavior. Buy on significant pullbacks for the 05 contract and control the position. TA05 focuses on the range of [5110 - 5220] [30]. MEG - **Market Review**: The prices of EG05, EG11, and EG01 changed. The main contract's basis was - 113 yuan/ton, and the EG5 - 9 spread was - 114 yuan/ton [31]. - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is low. The domestic supply load increases, the overseas device maintenance increases, the downstream demand is seasonally weak, and the inventory accumulates in the short term. The outlook is expected to improve in March - April [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on the near - month contract on dips. EG05 focuses on the range of [3680 - 3780] [33]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The main contract of methanol is at a high valuation level in the past three months. The comprehensive profit is - 250.9 (-15.9) yuan/ton, and the East China basis is - 39 (-28) [36]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic methanol device starts to increase the load, and the overseas device load is expected to increase. The import volume in January is 125.9wt. The demand stops falling, and the cost has weak support. The fundamentals are slightly loose, and the geopolitical conflict is still uncertain [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The import volume in January slightly exceeds expectations, the domestic start - up maintains a high level, and the port inventory is slightly depleted. The demand stops falling. Hold long positions. MA05 focuses on the range of [2219 - 2369] [38]. Urea - **Market Review**: The main contract of urea closed at 1,776 yuan/ton, at the 77.8% quantile level in the past year. The Shandong small - particle basis is 4 (+2) yuan/ton, and the UR5 - 9 spread is 38 yuan/ton [41]. - **Basic Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low, the supply pressure is large, the demand is temporarily supported, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. Under the "export quota system" and "supply - guarantee and price - stabilization" policy, the price has a ceiling and a floor [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply and demand are both strong, but the downstream demand enters the holiday off - season, and the support is expected to weaken. Be cautious about chasing up. UR05 focuses on the range of [1760 - 1790] [42]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On February 5, the NG main contract closed at 3.516 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 1.68% month - on - month. The US Henry Hub spot price was 4.630 (-0.690) US dollars/million British thermal units, the Dutch TTF spot price was 12.602 (-0.415) US dollars/million British thermal units, and the Chinese LNG market price was 3,896 (-18) yuan/ton [44]. - **Basic Logic**: The cold wave impact on the US natural gas price has gradually subsided. The domestic LNG retail profit increases. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand in Japan decreases. The US natural gas inventory decreases [45]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In winter, the demand for combustion and heating increases, but the supply is relatively sufficient, and the gas price is under pressure. NG focuses on the range of [2.979 - 3.522] [46]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On February 6, the BU main contract closed at 3,386 yuan/ton, up 1.41% month - on - month. The market prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 3,240 (-10) yuan/ton, 3,270 (+0) yuan/ton, and 3,310 (+0) yuan/ton respectively [49]. - **Basic Logic**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is uncertain, and the oil price is oscillatory and strong. The asphalt comprehensive profit decreases. The supply decreases in February, the demand increases in 2025, and the inventory rises [50]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation is high, and the supply uncertainty increases. Pay attention to the import of asphalt raw materials. Be cautious about risks. BU focuses on the range of [3300 - 3400] [51]. Glass - **Market Review**: The prices of FG01, FG05 (main contract), and FG09 decreased by 1.0%, 1.5%, and 1.5% respectively. The main contract's basis was - 52 yuan/ton, and the FG59 spread was - 99 yuan/ton [53][54]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - demand is in a weak balance. The inventory accumulates slightly, the demand enters the off - season, and the daily melting volume drops. The supply needs to be further reduced to digest the high inventory. Be cautious about chasing up before the cold - repair is further implemented [55]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG focuses on the range of [1030 - 1080] [55]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The prices of SA01, SA05 (main contract), and SA09 decreased by 1.1%, 1.6%, and 1.6% respectively. The main contract's basis was - 55 yuan/ton, and the SA59 spread was - 63 yuan/ton [57][58]. - **Basic Logic**: The demand for heavy soda ash declines, the inventory rises, the supply is under pressure due to the new production and maintenance. Short - sell on rallies before the maintenance further intensifies [59]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA focuses on the range of [1150 - 1200] [59].

Core Viewpoint - The silver price in 2026 is expected to show a "volatile upward trend," with an annual core operating range projected between $55 and $100 per ounce, potentially reaching $150 per ounce under extreme conditions, driven by structural supply-demand gaps, the Federal Reserve's easing monetary policy, and explosive industrial demand [1][20]. Group 1: Price Trend and Key Phases - The overall trend for silver prices in 2026 is characterized by independent and strong upward movement, breaking away from the previous passive trend of following gold, primarily due to surging industrial demand [2]. - The price movement can be divided into three phases: 1. Phase 1 (Jan-Apr): Consolidation around $55-$75 per ounce, awaiting the Federal Reserve's first rate cut [6]. 2. Phase 2 (May-Sep): Accelerated rise to $75-$100 per ounce, driven by peak solar installations and AI data center construction [6]. 3. Phase 3 (Oct-Dec): High-level consolidation between $85-$100 per ounce, with potential for extreme highs [6]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand gap for silver is expected to widen to 5,000 tons, with a conservative estimate of 3,000 tons, and could exceed 8,000 tons if demand from solar and AI sectors surpasses expectations [4]. - Industrial demand for silver has surpassed 60% of total demand, with significant contributions from solar energy, AI data centers, and electric vehicles [5]. - The solar industry alone is projected to consume 1.2 million tons of silver in 2026, accounting for over 40% of global annual silver production [5]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a key macroeconomic variable influencing silver prices, with expectations of 2-3 rate cuts totaling 50-75 basis points in 2026 [9]. - The U.S. dollar index is expected to weaken, providing additional support for silver prices as the Federal Reserve implements rate cuts [10]. Group 4: Geopolitical and Policy Influences - Geopolitical factors and policy adjustments can trigger short-term price fluctuations, such as China's export control policies and global geopolitical tensions [11]. - China's new export control policy, effective January 1, 2026, is expected to reduce global silver supply by 4,500-5,000 tons, significantly impacting market dynamics [11]. Group 5: Technical Analysis - The long-term technical outlook indicates that silver prices have broken out of a previous range (40-60 USD/oz) and are in an upward channel for 2026 [13]. - Short-term technical indicators show a neutral to bullish sentiment, with key support levels around $63-$65 per ounce [14]. Group 6: Practical Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on the long-term upward logic of silver prices while managing short-term volatility [15]. - For industry players, strategies include locking in silver costs through long-term contracts and optimizing silver usage to mitigate price fluctuations [15][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Oscillatory adjustment [1][6] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1][11] - L: Bearish trend continues [15] - PP: Bearish trend continues [1][19] - PVC: Range - bound oscillation [1][23] - PTA: Range - bound consolidation, expect positive outlook [2][27] - MEG: Cautiously bearish [2][30] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2][33] - Urea: Cautiously chase up [2][38] - LNG: Oscillatory consolidation [5][42] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [5][46] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [5][51] - Soda ash: Bearish consolidation [5][55] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market trends, core drivers, and supply - demand situations of multiple energy and chemical products, providing investment strategies and price range suggestions for each product based on factors like geopolitical situations, cost changes, and seasonal demand fluctuations [1][2][5] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight, oil prices declined. WTI dropped 2.84%, Brent fell 2.75%, and domestic SC rose 1.13% [6][7] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term, geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East persist. Core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, with increasing global crude inventories. US crude and refined product inventories are both rising, putting downward pressure on oil prices [8][9] - **Fundamentals**: OPEC + maintained its production policy unchanged in the February 1st meeting, pausing production increases in March. US crude production is gradually rising as the impact of the cold wave subsides. Indian crude imports in December increased 1.6% month - on - month. As of January 30th, US crude inventories decreased by 3.45 million barrels [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand fundamentals will improve after the first quarter. Short - term, it will oscillate and adjust with increased volatility. Pay attention to geopolitical developments in the Middle East. SC should focus on the range [465 - 480] [10] LPG - **Market Review**: On February 5th, the PG main contract closed at 4,197 yuan/ton, down 0.85% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,470, 4,446, and 4,845 yuan/ton respectively [11][12] - **Basic Logic**: It mainly follows the cost of oil prices. In the long - term, oil prices are under pressure. Supply is stable, but downstream chemical demand is weakening, and inventories are accumulating [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the price center is expected to move down. Short - term, due to uncertainties in oil prices and a bearish fundamental outlook, focus on the range [4150 - 4250] [14] L - **Market Review**: L05 closed at 6,777 yuan/ton, down 2.0% [16] - **Basic Logic**: Cost factors such as oil and ethane prices are falling. Production is expected to continue increasing. Before the Spring Festival, demand is weak. Pay attention to the situation after the festival [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range [6700 - 6900] [18] PP - **Market Review**: PP05 closed at 6,676 yuan/ton, down 1.8% [20] - **Basic Logic**: In the short - term, it follows cost fluctuations. In the off - season, inventories are accumulating in the upstream and mid - stream. The supply - demand situation is weak, with a 20% shutdown ratio. PDH profits are low, providing cost support. Pay attention to future demand verification [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range [6550 - 6750] [22] PVC - **Market Review**: V05 closed at 5,155 yuan/ton, up 1.7% [24] - **Basic Logic**: Weekly export orders are weakening, and social inventories are at a record high. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is at a low level, providing bottom - line cost support. However, long - term supply - demand is expected to weaken, and high - inventory structure is difficult to change [26] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range [4900 - 5100] [26] PTA - **Market Review**: TA05 closed at 5,270 yuan/ton [27] - **Basic Logic**: Valuation has improved, with better processing fees. Supply is relatively stable as domestic devices are under planned maintenance. Downstream demand is seasonally weak, and there is seasonal inventory accumulation in January - February, but the pressure is not significant [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The fundamental outlook is positive. Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips for the 05 contract. TA05 should focus on the range [5090 - 5230] [29] MEG - **Market Review**: EG05 closed at 4,081 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan [30] - **Basic Logic**: Low - valuation has been repaired. Domestic production load has increased, while downstream demand is seasonally weak. Port inventories are rising, and there is inventory accumulation pressure in January - February [31] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds. EG05 should focus on the range [3690 - 3790] [32] Methanol - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned [33] - **Basic Logic**: The main contract is at a high valuation level. Domestic production load remains high, while overseas devices are significantly under - loaded. Demand has weakened significantly. Cost support is relatively stable. Geopolitical conflicts and cold weather in North America bring short - term positive factors [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: There is a game between weak current reality and strong future expectations. Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips. MA05 should focus on the range [2200 - 2260] [37] Urea - **Market Review**: UR05 closed at 1,777 yuan/ton [38] - **Basic Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low. The overall production load is rising, and demand is short - term strong but expected to weaken as it enters the holiday off - season. There are upper and lower limits on prices due to policies [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Supply and demand are both strong, but downstream demand support is expected to weaken. Cautiously chase up. UR05 should focus on the range [1760 - 1790] [41] LNG - **Market Review**: On February 4th, the NG main contract closed at 3.458 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 2.40% [42][43] - **Basic Logic**: The impact of the cold wave has diminished, and prices have gradually declined. Domestic LNG retail profits have increased. Supply decreased in January, and demand in Japan declined in 2025. US natural gas inventories decreased but were higher than the same period last year and the five - year average [44] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In winter, demand supports prices, but supply is relatively sufficient. NG should focus on the range [3.329 - 3.680] [45] Asphalt - **Market Review**: On February 5th, the BU main contract closed at 3,339 yuan/ton, down 0.65% [47][48] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical factors in the Middle East cause oil prices to oscillate strongly. Asphalt profits have declined. Supply in February decreased, and demand imports and exports increased in 2025. Inventories have risen [49] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation is high. Pay attention to the import of asphalt raw materials. There are uncertainties in supply. Be cautious about risks. BU should focus on the range [3300 - 3400] [50] Glass - **Market Review**: FG05 closed at 1,088 yuan/ton, down 1.9% [52] - **Basic Logic**: Daily melting volume has slightly decreased, and the supply - demand is weakly balanced. The market is in a supply - demand weak pattern, with high - level inventory accumulation. Demand is in the off - season. More supply cuts are needed to reduce inventory. Be cautious about chasing up before further cold - repair [54] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range [1050 - 1100] [54] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: SA05 closed at 1,229 yuan/ton, up 2.3% [56] - **Basic Logic**: Heavy - soda demand has declined, and factory inventories have risen for two consecutive weeks. Real - estate demand is weak, and heavy - soda demand support is insufficient. New production capacity has been put into operation, and production capacity utilization has decreased. Be cautious about chasing up before further maintenance [58] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range [1170 - 1220] [58]

Core Conclusion - As of February 5, 2026, the spot gold price in London is $4,864.01 per ounce, while the domestic gold T+D price is ¥1,092.48 per gram, and mainstream gold shop prices range from ¥1,553 to ¥1,568 per gram. The overall gold price is expected to remain strong with fluctuations, supported by anticipated Fed rate cuts of 50-75 basis points and the normalization of global central bank gold purchases, but a short-term correction risk of 5%-15% should be noted. The core value of gold lies in its role as a hedge against risk and asset preservation, with a recommended allocation not exceeding 15% of total assets [1]. Basic Understanding - Gold is primarily categorized into three types: physical gold, paper gold, and gold derivatives. Physical gold includes gold bars, coins, and jewelry, with gold bars typically having a purity of 99.99%. The investment gold bar prices from major domestic banks range from ¥1,141 to ¥1,229 per gram, while gold jewelry prices are higher due to processing fees and brand premiums, reaching ¥1,553 to ¥1,568 per gram. Paper gold is issued by banks with no physical delivery, allowing for flexible trading without fees, while gold derivatives include gold ETFs (tracking gold prices with trading costs of 0.1%-0.3%) and gold futures (with leverage of 5-10 times and higher entry barriers) [2]. Value Understanding - The core value of gold is its ability to hedge against risk, preserve assets, and combat inflation. In 2025, global central banks net purchased 863 tons of gold, driven by emerging market "de-dollarization" strategies, providing structural support for gold prices. Gold is suitable for three types of investors: those with low risk tolerance seeking stable asset preservation, those looking to hedge against inflation and diversify risks from stocks and funds, and those with short-term speculative needs who have a certain risk tolerance [5]. Influencing Factors - Key factors influencing gold price fluctuations include: 1. Federal Reserve policy: Expected rate cuts of 50-75 basis points in 2026 will lower the cost of holding gold, benefiting its price. 2. Dollar performance: The negative correlation of approximately -0.7 between the dollar index and gold prices means a stronger dollar typically leads to lower gold prices. 3. Central bank purchases: In 2025, global central banks net purchased 863 tons of gold, with an expected monthly average of 60-70 tons in 2026, supporting gold prices. 4. Geopolitical and supply-demand factors: Geopolitical conflicts increase demand for safe-haven assets, with an expected widening of the gold supply-demand gap to 320 tons in 2026, supporting prices [12]. Price Trends - The overall trend for gold prices in 2026 is expected to be strong with fluctuations. The World Gold Council predicts a baseline scenario of ±5% price fluctuations, with an optimistic scenario suggesting that if geopolitical conflicts escalate, prices could rise by 15%-30%, potentially exceeding $6,000 per ounce. In contrast, a risk scenario could see prices correct by 5%-20% if inflation rebounds. Institutions have differing views: UBS has raised its 2026 target price to $6,200 per ounce, while Goldman Sachs expects it to reach $5,400 per ounce by year-end, and JPMorgan has a long-term bullish outlook of $8,000-$8,500, but warns of short-term overbought risks [13]. Product Selection - New investors are advised to prioritize gold ETFs or bank paper gold due to their low entry barriers, controllable risks, and convenient operations. Gold ETFs typically allow investments starting at ¥100, with trading costs of only 0.1%-0.3%, and no physical storage costs. Paper gold can be traded flexibly starting from 1 gram (approximately ¥1,092 based on current T+D prices), with no leverage risk. In contrast, gold futures involve high leverage and risks, while physical gold incurs storage costs, making them less suitable for beginners [9].