| 模 | | --- | | S | | 1 | | 72 1 | | D | | 1 | | 1 | | V 2 | | 原油 | 女女女 | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | 能源日报 2025年12月12日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 美国正准备扣押更多运输委内瑞拉石油的船只,行动将针对可能运输过其他受制裁原油的油轮,该扣押行动或 导致至少三批共计600万桶委内瑞拉原油运输被暂停。 IEA月报下调了创纪录石油供应过刺预测，供应过利规模 略有收窄,但仍处于高位。油价再次进入供应过剩与地缘、宏观因素博弈阶段。尽管地缘犹动升温，但其对油 价的提振作用具有阶段性特点,且提振力度似乎逐渐低于此前表现。中长期来看,油价核心驱动仍是供应过 剩, 推动油价中枢持续下移。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 近期燃料油价格主要跟随因她缘冲突与供需博弈而波动的原油成本瑞运行。就 ...

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is expected to experience a phase of marginal supply easing and seasonal demand pressure in 2026, with global inventories remaining low and macroeconomic conditions providing support, leading to a high-level fluctuation of the Shanghai tin futures contract. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - The price of Shanghai tin futures reached a three-and-a-half-year high of 323,700 yuan/ton due to supply concerns from geopolitical conflicts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and expectations of macroeconomic easing [1] - The resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa region has progressed, with the current mine recovery rate reaching two-thirds, leading to an expected increase in tin imports from Myanmar to an average of 1,000 to 1,500 metal tons per month in Q1 2026 [1] - Indonesia's Timah company aims to significantly increase production in 2026, but ongoing crackdowns on illegal mining may lead to supply reductions for some small and medium-sized producers [1] Group 2: Demand Trends - The domestic refined tin smelting sector is expected to maintain stable operations in Q1 2026, with raw material constraints easing compared to 2025, leading to a slight year-on-year increase in tin ingot supply [2] - Traditional consumption sectors are showing significant seasonal weakness, with the consumer electronics market not showing substantial recovery, and global smartphone shipments predicted to decline by 0.9% year-on-year in 2026 [2] - The home appliance industry faces demand pressure following the withdrawal of national subsidies, with domestic sales growth slowing and export benefits from emerging markets insufficient to offset domestic weakness [2] Group 3: Price Outlook - The tin market is expected to continue the pattern of "marginal supply easing and seasonal demand pressure" in Q1 2026, with increased supply from Myanmar and Indonesia suppressing price upward potential [3] - The core trading range for the Shanghai tin futures contract is anticipated to be between 280,000 and 330,000 yuan/ton in early 2026, influenced by macroeconomic liquidity support from potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [3] - Key factors to monitor include the actual progress of production resumption in Myanmar, the approval schedule for Indonesia's RKAB quotas, and the stability of the DRC [3]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 原油： 周四油价继续下挫，其中WTI 1月合约收盘下跌0.86美元至57.60美元/桶，跌幅1.47%。布伦特2月合约收 盘下跌0.93美元至61.28美元/桶，跌幅1.49%。SC2601以435.6元/桶收盘，下跌5.6元/桶，跌幅为1.27%。 OPEC在月度报告中称，OPEC+产油国联盟在11月小幅提高产量，因八名成员继续推进新一轮增产。该 组织同时维持对明年需求相对强劲增长的预测。根据OPEC在月度报告中公布的数据，OPEC+在11月的 原油产量为4306万桶/日，较上月增加4.3万桶/日。报告称，2026年第一季度，市场对OPEC+原油的需求 将平均为4260万桶/日，2026年全年平均为4300万桶/日。IEA自5月以来首次下调了对明年全球石油供应 过剩的预测，指出由于全球经济强劲以及来自受制裁国家的供应下降，需求前景更加乐观。根据IEA最 新发布的月度石油市场报告，全球石油供应将比需求高出384万桶/日，这低于11月份预测的409万桶/日 的过剩，但近400万桶/日的过剩规模仍然相当于全球需求的近4%。IEA预计明年全球石油供应 ...

2025年的中国经济像辆奇怪的车，两条赛道上跑着完全不同的速度。 出口这边呼呼往前冲，1-10月同比增长5%，跟去年6%基本持平，前三季度净出口对GDP的贡献更是冲 到了29%。 另一边消费和房地产却慢悠悠，社会消费品零售增速3%，房地产投资还在负增长。 这种"外快内慢"的双速模式，今年已经是第五年了。 出口逆势增长的秘密，区域掉头与产品升级 今年出口能稳住5%的增速，很多人年初都没想到。 毕竟去年基数就不低，今年全球经济也没多景气。 记得2023年新能源汽车出口量全球占比就破了60%，今年更是成了出口增长的主力，街上跑的"中国 造"电动车，在欧洲超市停车场里都快跟本土品牌平分秋色了。 但企业们早就学会了"东边不亮西边亮"。 对美国出口掉了760亿美元，可对东盟一下子补回来680亿。 这种区域掉头的操作，一半是转口贸易的功劳，另一半是企业把生产线往东南亚挪了挪，组装完再卖出 去，关税成本降了不少。 全球制造业也算给了点面子，今年全球制造业PMI均值50.3，比去年高了0.2个点，刚好踩在荣枯线上。 发达国家那边宽松政策还在延续，老百姓手里有钱，对咱们的高端制造品需求挺旺。 最明显的是汽车和集成电路，这两样今年 ...

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 原油 | | 过剩格局未变，油价反弹偏空。地缘：南美地缘不确定性上升，美国扣押 一艘委内瑞拉油轮；核心驱动：淡季供给过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激增，美国原油和成品油库存均 | | | | 累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄 | | | | 乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | 成本端拖累，液化气走势偏弱。成本端原油，震荡调整，大趋势仍向下； | | | | 供需方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH 以及 MTBE 开工率 70%左 | | LPG | | | | ★ | 反弹偏空 | 右，下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端改善，港口与厂内库存环比下降。 | | | | 盘面维持升水结构，企业库存窄幅增加。国内开工季节性回升，月内到港 | | L | 空头延续 | 资源充足，供给端整体依旧充足。棚膜旺季逐步见顶，农膜开工率三连降。 | | ★ | | 油价中期仍存下移风险，成本支撑不足 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On Wednesday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) rose collectively. The main contract EC2602 closed up 3.41%, and the far - month contracts closed up between 1 - 2%. The shipping companies' price increase announcements in late December drove up the futures prices [1]. - The SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index rebounded, and the new export order index in November showed a pre - Christmas recovery in terminal transportation demand [1]. - Spot freight rates of shipping companies increased, which also contributed to the rise in futures prices [1]. - The geopolitical conflict is in a stalemate, and its short - term impact on freight rates has weakened. The improvement of the trade war situation and the arrival of the shipping peak season are conducive to the recovery of futures prices. The current freight rate market is mainly affected by seasonal demand, and investors are advised to be cautious [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1665.200, up 54.9; EC sub - main contract closing price: 1080.7, up 6.10 [1]. - EC2602 - EC2604 spread: 584.50, up 38.30; EC2602 - EC2606 spread: 439.60, up 38.90; EC contract basis: - 156.10, down 45.40 [1]. - Futures holding positions: 31382, up 669; EC main contract holding volume: not specified [1]. Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1509.10, up 25.45; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly): 960.51, up 11.74 [1]. - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1114.89, down 6.91; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1447.56, down 1.78; CCFI (composite index) (weekly): not specified [1]. - Container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, up 0.11 [1]. Shipping - related Indexes - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 2557.00, up 137.00; Panama Freight Index (daily): 1786.00, up 27.00 [1]. - Average charter price (Panamax ship): 16670.00, unchanged; Average charter price (Capesize ship): 37465.00, down 400.00 [1]. Industry News - The Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao met with the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund Kristalina Georgieva, emphasizing China's hope for objective research on international economic and trade issues and strengthening policy communication [1]. - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development reported that global trade volume will increase by about 7% (an increase of $2.2 trillion) in 2025, reaching a record of $35 trillion [1]. - US President Trump said he would use support for immediate and significant interest rate cuts as a "touchstone" for selecting the new Fed Chairman and might adjust tariff policies to help reduce prices [1]. Key Data to Focus On - December 11, 03:00: US Fed interest rate decision (upper limit) as of December 10 [1] - December 11, 21:30: US initial jobless claims (in ten thousand) for the week ending December 6 [1] - December 11, 21:30: US trade balance (in $100 million) for September [1] - December 11, 23:00: US wholesale sales monthly rate for September [1]

首先，得聊一聊这笔躺平的巨款。自从俄乌冲突爆发以来，西方国家联合冻结了俄罗斯超过三千亿美元的资产，其中欧盟冻结了约2100亿欧元。这些钱虽然 名义上归俄罗斯所有，但因为被限制使用，实际上成了西方的筹码。随着乌克兰战场上消耗日益增大，而美国的援助逐渐减少，欧盟开始动起了这笔钱的主 意。欧盟认为，既然这些钱暂时无法使用，不如拿来借给乌克兰，声称这是一种赔偿贷款，并计划让俄罗斯用未来的战争赔款来偿还，这听起来似乎是既解 决问题，又不浪费。 t the state 104 60 r to Elect - t g r P S - 87 e caller 1 4 e 两千多亿欧元的俄罗斯被冻结资产就静静躺在欧洲的银行账户里，乌克兰急需这笔资金用来购买弹药和支付士兵工资，而布鲁塞尔则把这笔钱当作支援乌克 兰的金矿。然而，欧洲中央银行的一句话，彻底打破了这一计划。12月6日，俄新社报道了这一关键消息，欧央行明确拒绝了用冻结俄罗斯资产支援乌克兰 的提案，使得原本看似充满希望的计划瞬间变成了泡影。 all # phone of the C 方 120 1 4 t A A p e pp f 9 r /V Last t t 1 al ...

Group 1: Key Events Impacting the Futures Market - The series "Futures Discussion - 2025 Futures Industry Review" aims to provide insights into the 2025 futures market and its key events, with a focus on macro to micro analysis and future planning for 2026 [2] - A significant event in 2025 was the global tariff war initiated by Trump in early April, which led to the largest price drop for many commodities throughout the year, providing purchasing opportunities for physical enterprises [2] Group 2: Global Economic Growth Challenges - According to IMF and OECD forecasts, global economic growth is expected to slow to around 3.1% in 2025, marking the lowest level in five years, with developed economies struggling while emerging markets, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, contribute 60% of global growth [3] - The economic policies of different regions are diverging, with the US, Europe, and the UK entering a rate-cutting cycle, while Japan plans to raise rates, and countries like Turkey and Argentina are increasing rates due to high inflation [3] - China's economy shows resilience with a GDP growth of 5.2% in the first three quarters, but a continuous PMI index below the threshold indicates weak consumer demand, suggesting potential stimulus measures in 2026 [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Conflicts and Commodity Price Volatility - Geopolitical conflicts in various regions in 2025 have led to significant volatility in commodity prices, increased supply chain costs, and heightened market risk aversion [4] - The situation in the Middle East has affected container shipping rates, oil, and gold prices, while the Russia-Ukraine conflict has caused energy price fluctuations and disruptions in grain transport, raising food prices [4] Group 4: Development Opportunities from the 14th Five-Year Plan - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development and technological self-reliance, which will have a profound impact on the futures market by enhancing the underlying market for futures [5] - New infrastructure and industrial development are expected to boost demand for raw materials like steel and non-ferrous metals, while technological advancements will drive demand for new materials such as lithium carbonate and platinum [5] Group 5: AI Demand and Energy Transition - In 2025, global investments in AI data centers and chip industries reached $2.9 trillion, with new AI-driven demands promoting green energy development and altering energy consumption structures [6] - The share of green energy in traditional energy provinces has reached 50%, leading to increased demand for silver, aluminum, copper, and polysilicon [6] - The traditional pig cycle has shortened from around 40 months to 15-20 months due to enhanced breeding scale, necessitating attention to breeding stock and production efficiency [6] Group 6: Futures Tools Supporting the Real Economy - The performance of the non-ferrous metals sector in 2025 was notably influenced by the tariff war, which provided hedging opportunities for companies to lock in low raw material prices [7] - The focus on AI development is shifting from investment to application scenarios, which will become a new direction for capital market growth in 2026 [7] - Understanding long-term economic cycles can enhance asset allocation strategies, making it easier for traders and companies to navigate investment decisions [7]

据彭博社报道，今年以来，全球原油海运主要航线的日均费用增幅最大，高达467%，而液化天然气 （LNG）和铁矿石等大宗商品的运输费率分别增长了四倍多和两倍多。而通常情况下，由于年末需求 季节性疲软，运费会有所回落。如今船舶在海上运输货物的时间延长，助推了运费飙升。多位航运高管 预计，整体市场供应紧张的局面至少将持续到明年年初。总部位于塞浦路斯的大型油轮公司Frontline Management首席执行官巴斯塔德在上月底的财报电话会议上表示："我们看到的是一个极其紧张的航运 市场。" 相比之下，国际集装箱海运价格有所回落。据希腊船运新闻报道，截至11月最后一周，德鲁里世界集装 箱指数下跌2%至每40英尺集装箱1806美元。下跌的主要原因是跨太平洋航线和亚欧航线的运费下降。 彭博社报道称，全球关键航线上的地缘冲突加剧推高了整体运输成本，例如红海局势紧张迫使一些船只 绕道非洲。南非《货运新闻》2日称，黑海无人机袭击事件震动全球航运。市场对此反应迅速。消息人 士称，前往乌克兰港口航程的战争风险保险费率已从船舶价值的约0.4%升至0.5%。而风险本就较高的 俄罗斯航线黑海港口，其保险费率则从大约0.6%攀升到0.65% ...

各位朋友，我是帮主郑重，做了20年财经记者，也扎根中长线投资多年。最近打开行情软件，是不是被 大宗商品的表现惊到了？原油悄悄涨，铜价踩着新高往上走，白银更是在历史高点附近晃悠，这市场热 闹得很，今天就用聊天的方式跟大家扒一扒背后的逻辑，还有咱们中长线该怎么布局。 先说说原油，这事儿得从美俄会谈说起。前几天美俄代表团坐下来谈，结果没达成结束俄乌冲突的协 议，虽然说会谈挺有建设性，但没谈拢就意味着，俄罗斯石油的制裁短期内松不了口。加上最近针对俄 罗斯关联油轮的袭击变多，有些船舶公司都不敢往那边派船了，供应端的担忧一下子就上来了。可能有 朋友会说，不是说原油库存增加了吗？没错，上周美国原油库存加了57.4万桶，但比行业预期的250万 桶少多了，所以没给市场带来太大压力。做财经记者那20年，我见过不少地缘冲突影响油价的情况，这 次也一样，只要俄乌冲突没实质性进展，原油供应的不确定性就会一直存在，短期很难出现大幅下跌， 这是咱们中长线看原油的一个核心前提。 再看白银，这品种最近可太火了，一直徘徊在历史高点附近。关键推手其实是美国的就业数据，11月企 业就业人数是2023年初以来跌得最多的，这就让市场觉得，美联储12月降 ...