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集运日报:宏观整体情绪较强,盘面偏强震荡,近月保持基差修复,今日若回调可考虑加仓,设置好止损-20250725
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 08:30
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall macro sentiment is strong, and the market is oscillating strongly. The near - month contracts are repairing the basis. Traders can consider adding positions on a pull - back today and set stop - losses [2]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff fluctuations, the trading difficulty is high. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [4]. 3. Summaries by Related Content 3.1 Freight Indexes - On July 21, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% [3]. - On July 18, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1147.96 points, down 5.75% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1440.25 points, up 0.35%; for the US - West route, it was 1181.87 points, down 0.40% [3]. - On July 18, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) published price was 1646.90 points, down 86.39 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 2079 USD/TEU, down 1.00%; for the US - West route, it was 2142 USD/FEU, down 2.4% [3]. - On July 18, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1303.54 points, down 0.8% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1803.42 points, up 4.5%; for the US - West route, it was 941.65 points, down 8.4% [3]. 3.2 Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in June was 49.4, the service PMI was 50 (a 2 - month high), and the composite PMI was 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 [3]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May [3]. - The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52, the service PMI was 53.1 (a 2 - month low), and the composite PMI was 52.8 (a 2 - month low) [3]. 3.3 Trade Policies and Market Conditions - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, hitting re - export trade. The tariff negotiation date was postponed to August 1. Some shipping companies announced price increases, and the spot market had a small price increase to test the market [4]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers were recommended to go long on the 2510 contract below 1300 (already with a profit margin of over 300 points). Consider taking profits if it continues to pull back today. It was recommended to go short on the EC2512 contract with a light position [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: In the context of international turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive arbitrage structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with a light position [4]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It was recommended to take profits when the contracts reached high levels, wait for the pull - back to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent trend [4]. 3.5 Contract Information - On July 24, the main contract 2510 closed at 1583.9, up 3.73%, with a trading volume of 65,200 lots and an open interest of 50,600 lots, an increase of 455 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%. The margin of the company for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [4].
大越期货原油早报-20250725
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 02:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Overnight crude oil fluctuated repeatedly. Geopolitical factors, such as the US and Israel withdrawing from negotiations with Hamas, increased geopolitical concerns, and the disruption of crude oil exports at Russian ports also boosted oil prices. However, the pessimistic outlook for trade negotiations still pressured oil prices. In the short - term, oil prices will continue to oscillate, with short - term trading in the range of 505 - 515, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - For crude oil 2509, the fundamentals are neutral as the EU is negotiating trade with the US while preparing counter - tariff lists, and there are geopolitical issues in the Middle East. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish. Inventory data indicates a decline in US API and EIA inventories, which is bullish, but the increase in Cushing area inventory is a factor to consider. The 20 - day moving average is flat with the price below it, being neutral. The main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil show different trends, also being neutral. Overall, short - term trading is in the 505 - 515 range, and long - term is on hold [3]. 3.2 Recent News - The US Middle East peace envoy recalled the negotiation team as Hamas showed a lack of willingness to reach a cease - fire in Gaza, and Israel's negotiation team also withdrew. The European Central Bank maintained interest rates and gave a moderately optimistic assessment of the euro - zone economy, and will adjust strategies according to US tariff negotiation progress. The US Treasury Secretary said that US - China trade is in a "good state" and will discuss China's suspension of purchasing Russian and Iranian oil [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Bullish factors include the intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the increase in summer demand. Bearish factors are OPEC+ continuous three - month production increase, tense US trade relations with other economies, and the cease - fire between Iran and Israel. The market is driven by short - term geopolitical conflicts and waiting for the peak summer demand season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: For Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil, the settlement prices changed, with WTI and Oman showing increases, Brent a slight decrease, and SC a small increase [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of various crude oil varieties such as UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman, etc., all increased, with different increase amplitudes [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The US API and EIA inventories decreased in the week ending July 18, while the Cushing area inventory increased. The Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged as of July 24 [3]. 3.5 Position Data - As of July 15, the net long positions of WTI crude oil decreased, and the net long positions of Brent crude oil increased [3].
甲醇 震荡偏强运行
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-07-24 08:27
Core Viewpoint - Methanol futures prices have surged for two consecutive days, breaking a nearly month-long period of fluctuation, primarily driven by "anti-involution policies" and speculation related to coal production cuts [1] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Domestic methanol supply has recently decreased, with the operating rate of domestic methanol plants at 71.1%, down 7% from the previous peak [2] - Several methanol plants are scheduled for maintenance in July, including those in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, which will lead to a temporary reduction in supply [2] - Import expectations are also subdued due to geopolitical tensions affecting Iranian methanol production, although shipments may accelerate in late July [2] Group 2: Demand Resilience - Despite being in a demand off-season, traditional demand remains resilient, particularly in the olefins sector, with MTO operating rates at 81.1% [3] - The absolute demand levels are not low due to the commissioning of new downstream facilities, contributing to a noticeable increase in demand [3] - Traditional demand is expected to remain strong in the second half of the year, supported by ongoing production from newly commissioned facilities [3] Group 3: Inventory Trends - There is a divergence between port and inland inventories, with port inventories at 83.55 million tons, indicating a seasonal accumulation [4] - Inland inventories are at historically low levels due to increased downstream demand, suggesting limited inventory pressure [4] - Recent increases in downstream enterprise inventories indicate a willingness to restock, reflecting current demand resilience [4] Group 4: Market Outlook - The short-term methanol market is influenced by macroeconomic factors and speculation regarding the retirement of outdated chemical capacities, with prices expected to remain strong [5] - Supply is anticipated to gradually recover after late July, while demand is currently in a lull, leading to a balanced supply-demand scenario [5] - Looking ahead to the second half of the year, demand may improve in September and October, with limited downside potential for methanol prices [5]
金价又“疯”了!克价1021元,打工人买金像在抢白菜……吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-22 21:39
Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices to 1021 yuan per gram is attributed to global economic uncertainties, including geopolitical conflicts and fluctuations in the US dollar, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The rising gold prices are driven by a shift in investor sentiment, with many moving away from stocks and funds to gold, reflecting a belief that gold is a more stable investment during turbulent times [3]. - The cost of gold mining has significantly increased, with rising labor and equipment costs making it more expensive to extract gold, contributing to the higher retail prices [3]. Group 2: Consumer Impact - The price increase has adversely affected consumers, particularly those planning significant purchases like wedding gold, forcing them to adjust their budgets and expectations [3]. - Retailers have noted a decline in customer inquiries about gold purchases, with many now questioning the reasons behind the price hikes rather than asking about prices [3]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Investors who purchased gold at lower prices are experiencing substantial gains, highlighting the potential for significant returns in the gold market [3]. - The volatility of gold prices suggests that potential investors should be cautious and consider their financial capacity to handle price fluctuations before making purchases [3].
集运日报:盘面冲高回落,符合日报预期,10合约扩仓至5万手,今日若回调可考虑加仓。-20250717
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 06:46
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term market may rebound, but due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with light positions or wait and see [2][4]. - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - On July 16, the main contract 2510 closed at 1598.1, with a 1.4% increase, a trading volume of 96,500 lots, and an open interest of 50,500 lots, an increase of 3,849 lots from the previous day [4]. - The basis continued to converge, but the spot market lacked sufficient momentum to support the continuous upward movement of futures prices. The main contract opened high and closed low but still rose slightly [4]. Freight Index - On July 14, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2,421.94 points, up 7.3% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1,266.59 points, down 18.7% [3]. - On July 11, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1,218.03 points, down 3.19% from the previous period; the European route was 1,435.21 points, down 0.50%; the US - West route was 1,186.59 points, up 0.85% [3]. - On July 11, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1,733.29 points, down 30.20 points from the previous period; the European line price was 2,099 USD/TEU, down 0.10%; the US - West route was 2,194 USD/FEU, up 5.03% [3]. - On July 11, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1,313.70 points, down 2.2% from the previous period; the European route was 1,726.41 points, up 1.9%; the US - West route was 1,027.49 points, down 5.2% [3]. PMI and Investor Confidence Index - Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4, service PMI was 50 (a two - month high), and composite PMI was 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 [3]. - China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May [3]. - US Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value in June was 52, service PMI was 53.1 (a two - month low), and composite PMI was 52.8 (a two - month low) [3]. Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are recommended to go long on the 2510 contract below 1300 (already with a profit margin of over 300). If it continues to pull back today, consider adding positions; consider shorting the EC2512 contract above 1950 [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, with a positive spread structure and large fluctuations, it is recommended to wait and see or try with light positions [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the pull - back to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. Policy Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [5]. - The margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [5]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [5].
浙商证券浙商早知道-20250717
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-07-16 23:31
Market Overview - On July 16, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.03%, the CSI 300 fell by 0.3%, the STAR 50 rose by 0.14%, the CSI 1000 increased by 0.3%, the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.22%, and the Hang Seng Index declined by 0.29% [4] - The best-performing industries on July 16 were social services (+1.13%), automotive (+1.07%), pharmaceutical and biotechnology (+0.95%), light industry manufacturing (+0.94%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (+0.85%). The worst-performing industries were steel (-1.28%), banking (-0.74%), non-ferrous metals (-0.45%), non-bank financials (-0.43%), and construction decoration (-0.42%) [4] - The total trading volume of the A-share market on July 16 was 14,617.34 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 1.603 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Key Insights - The macroeconomic research indicates that with the gradual implementation of tariffs, external demand is expected to weaken, signaling an approaching downturn in exports. Attention is drawn to the impact of tariff conflicts on companies establishing overseas warehouses for cross-border stockpiling, which may disrupt export rhythms [5] - The macroeconomic deep report highlights that the economic recovery in June shows a good momentum, with the actual GDP growth in the second quarter at 5.2%. The growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in June increased by 6.8% year-on-year, indicating a significant divergence between supply and demand [6]
关注军工与银行的配置价值
2025-07-16 06:13
Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the A-share market and sector rotation strategies. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Geopolitical Conflicts and Market Dynamics** The analysis focuses on how geopolitical events, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the India-Pakistan tensions, influence sector performance in the A-share market. The report aims to fill a gap in existing research on this topic [2][5][6]. 2. **Sector Rotation Strategy** The importance of sector rotation is emphasized, suggesting that investors should adapt their strategies based on market conditions and geopolitical events. The report advocates for a shift towards growth-oriented assets during favorable conditions [1][2]. 3. **Historical Data Analysis** The report analyzes 12 significant geopolitical conflicts since the new century, primarily in the Middle East, to identify patterns in excess returns across different sectors before, during, and after these events [3][4][6]. 4. **Impact of Conflicts on A-share Performance** The analysis indicates that prior to conflicts, there is a rise in risk aversion, affecting sectors differently. Defensive sectors like steel and utilities may benefit, while consumer sectors tend to suffer [7][9]. 5. **Market Volatility During Conflicts** The report finds that, except for the 2008 financial crisis, A-share volatility remains relatively stable in the lead-up to geopolitical conflicts, suggesting that markets may not react as dramatically as feared [8][9]. 6. **Sector-Specific Responses to Conflicts** - **Military and Energy Sectors**: These sectors are expected to see increased demand and orders due to heightened geopolitical risks [8][10]. - **Consumer Sectors**: These are likely to be negatively impacted due to increased uncertainty and risk aversion [9][10]. - **Technology and Growth Stocks**: These sectors may experience significant pressure during conflicts but could recover as tensions ease [11][14]. 7. **Post-Conflict Economic Recovery** After conflicts, there is an anticipated shift towards economic recovery, benefiting sectors like banking and consumer goods. The report suggests that banks will see improved lending conditions and asset quality as economic activity resumes [16][17]. 8. **Long-Term Investment Outlook** The report identifies military, technology, and healthcare sectors as long-term growth opportunities, while also highlighting the cyclical nature of energy and consumer sectors [25][26]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Behavioral Finance Insights** The report draws parallels with behavioral finance, suggesting that historical patterns can inform future investment strategies during geopolitical tensions [2][3]. 2. **Global Context** The analysis also references historical conflicts, such as World War II and the Cold War, to provide context for current market behaviors and sector performances [19][20][21]. 3. **Future Geopolitical Risks** The report warns that ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in regions like India-Pakistan and the Middle East, may continue to influence market dynamics and investment strategies [28]. 4. **Investment Strategy Recommendations** The report concludes with recommendations for investors to consider sector rotation based on the phases of geopolitical conflicts, advocating for a proactive approach to asset allocation [27][28].
2025年度·第16期:能源、航运策略周观察
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 11:10
Report Industry Investment Rating - The oil market rating for the current week has been adjusted from relatively strong to neutral and volatile [5] Core Views - **Crude Oil**: In Q2, global oil inventories increased by 2.7%, accelerating marginally from 2% in Q1. In the first week of Q3, overall inventories decreased by 0.3% due to crude oil destocking and refined oil stockpiling. The upward drive of strong real - world factors on oil prices may be weakening, and the further upside for Brent above $70 per barrel is limited [5] - **Fuel Oil**: Last week, global fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.7% week - on - week and remained at a low level. The spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils in Singapore widened [5] - **Asphalt**: In June, refinery production exceeded the plan, breaking the de - stocking pattern. The increase in asphalt supply is still uncertain, and demand recovery is expected to be delayed [5] - **Natural Gas**: High temperatures have boosted market demand. In the US, the upside is limited before further strengthening of power demand. In Europe, the market is expected to remain volatile [8] - **LPG**: Middle East production pressure persists, and the overseas price continues to be weak. The domestic market is currently experiencing weak supply and demand, with the futures market showing weak volatility [8] - **Container Shipping Index (European Route)**: The spot price was stronger than expected last week. The short - term futures market will fluctuate with the spot price. In the medium term, freight rates are likely to decline seasonally [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Energy & Shipping Price Trends - **Energy Commodities**: Last week, crude - related products continued to rise, with Brent up 3.1%. By - products LPG and fuel oil were weak. The natural gas market showed mixed performance, with European gas up 5.2% and US gas down 0.89%. The steam coal market continued to rebound [4] - **Shipping**: European route quotes mostly remained stable in late July. US route freight rates bottomed out and stabilized, with SCFI West & East US routes up 5% and 1.2% week - on - week respectively [4] Crude Oil & Oil Products Chain Key Volume and Price Data - **Price Trends**: The crude oil monthly spread declined from a high. The premium of domestic futures was strong. The spot premium of crude oil declined slightly from a high [10] - **Crack Spreads**: Overseas gasoline and diesel crack spreads fluctuated, and the crack spread of high - sulfur fuel oil weakened. Domestic energy - chemical product crack spreads continued to decline with the rebound of crude oil [12] - **Global Oil Consumption High - Frequency Indicators**: The 7 - day average of global commercial flights was down 1.2% year - on - year. The 4 - week average of US refined oil apparent demand was down 1.6% year - on - year [13] - **China's Oil Consumption High - Frequency Indicators**: China's ground congestion index was flat year - on - year, and highway truck traffic was up 0.8% year - on - year. The number of domestic flights was up 2% year - on - year [17] - **Refining Profits & Refinery Operations**: The comprehensive refining profits of refineries in three regions and the refining margins of Chinese refineries are presented in the report, along with refinery capacity utilization rates [19] - **China & India Procurement Shipping Schedules**: In June, China's above - scale crude oil processing volume was up 8.5% year - on - year, and imports were up 7.4% year - on - year. India's crude oil imports and refining product demand also showed certain trends [22] - **Major Oil - Producing Countries' Shipping Schedules**: The shipping schedules of major oil - producing countries such as OPEC 9 countries, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iran are presented [24] - **US Crude Oil Production**: Data on US crude oil production, including production volume, four - week average year - on - year growth rate, and rig counts, are provided [26] - **Crude Oil Inventories**: Data on on - land commercial inventories, floating storage inventories, and total inventories of crude oil are presented [28] - **Refined Oil Inventories**: Data on global refined oil inventories, including light distillates, diesel, kerosene, and fuel oil, are provided [31] - **Fund Positions**: The relative net long positions of management funds in Brent and WTI crude oil are presented [33] Asphalt Key Volume and Price Data - **High - Frequency Supply and Demand**: The shipment volume of domestic refinery asphalt increased slightly week - on - week, and the cumulative year - on - year increase decreased by 1 percentage point to 7% compared to the end of June [5] - **Inventory**: Data on domestic asphalt inventories, including refinery inventories and trader inventories, are provided [38] Natural Gas Key Volume and Price Data - **Core Spreads**: Data on key spreads such as the TTF - balance spread, JKM - TTF spread, and HH forward curve are presented [41] - **Short - Term Temperature Forecast**: Short - term temperature forecasts for regions such as Northwest Europe, the US, and China are provided [46] - **European Consumption and LNG Imports**: Data on natural gas consumption and LNG imports in Europe are presented [49] - **US Production and Global LNG Exports**: Data on US natural gas production and LNG exports from the US, Qatar, and Australia are provided [51] - **Inventory Levels and Change Rates**: Data on natural gas inventory levels and change rates in the US and Europe are presented [53] LPG Key Volume and Price Data - **Core Spreads**: Data on key spreads such as the PG - FEI spread, ether - post - carbon - four - civil - gas spread, and Far - East propane - naphtha spread are presented [55] - **Inventory Levels**: Data on propane inventories in the US, refinery inventories in China, and port storage capacity utilization rates in South and East China are provided [57] Steam Coal Key Volume and Price Data - **Trade Spreads and Profits**: Data on inland trade shipping profits, high - calorie coal premiums at Bohai Rim ports, and the import advantages of imported coal are presented [59] - **Upstream Supply**: Data on the weekly production of 442 coal mines in the Three Western Regions, Ordos coal mine operating rates, and China's imported steam coal weekly shipments are provided [62] - **Mid - Stream Transportation**: Data on the supply - demand surplus, number of ships, and inventories at four Bohai Rim ports, as well as inland port inventories, are presented [64] - **Downstream Manufacturing & Construction Industry Prosperity**: Data on sub - industry PMIs, real estate sales areas, cement and coal - to - methanol operating rates, and steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rates are provided [66] - **Downstream Daily Consumption & Inventory**: Data on the daily consumption and inventory of eight coastal provinces, seventeen inland provinces, and twenty - five provinces across the country are presented [68][69] Container Shipping (European Route) Key Volume and Price Data - **Price Trends**: The spot price was stronger than expected last week. The short - term futures market will fluctuate with the spot price, and the basis will gradually converge [71] - **Capacity Turnover**: Data on the idle capacity, sailing speed of container ships, and the scale of container ships in ports in Northwest Europe and Asia are presented [76]
早盘直击 | 今日行情关注
Group 1 - The macroeconomic outlook has improved, leading to a strong performance in the A-share market. Recent international developments have shown marginal improvement, with the U.S. fiscal expansion plan helping to alleviate recession expectations and stabilize global capital markets [1] - Domestic efforts to combat "involution" are ongoing, which is expected to ease overcapacity concerns and positively impact profit expectations. Investors are closely monitoring macroeconomic data for June and the first half of the year, as well as future policy directions [1] - The two markets exhibited volatility and differentiation, with trading volume decreasing. On Monday, the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a slight rebound, closing above the five-day moving average, while the Shenzhen Component Index saw a slight decline. The total trading volume was around 1.4 trillion yuan, down from the previous Friday [1] Group 2 - The market structure showed more stocks rising than falling, with a notable increase in the number of stocks hitting the daily limit up, although there was also a rise in limit down stocks, which warrants attention. The main market focus was on the robotics and power sectors, with small-cap stocks leading in gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through the dense trading area from the fourth quarter of last year, continuing to move upward. After surpassing the small trading range from May and June, it has crossed above the dense trading area from the fourth quarter of last year, with the main technical resistance level now at the high point from early October last year, which also represents the top of the weekly large trading range [1]
集运日报:加沙停火或将出现转机,市场观望情绪强,今日盘面若冲高可考虑部分止盈,符合日报预期。-20250711
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-07-11 02:27
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gaza ceasefire may see a turnaround, and the market is in a wait - and - see mood. Consider partial profit - taking if the market rises today, which meets the daily report's expectations [1] - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff fluctuations, the game is difficult. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [3] Group 3: Summary of Related Indexes Shipping Indexes - On July 4 - 7, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1285.2 points, down 7.92% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) (European route) was 2258.04 points, up 6.3%; the NCFI (European route) was 1442.5 points, down 0.03%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1557.77 points, down 3.8%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1176.6 points, down 24.27% [1] - On July 4, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1763.49 points, down 98.02 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1342.99 points, down 1.9%; the SCFI European route price was 2101 USD/TEU, up 3.50%; the CCFI (European route) was 1694.30 points, up 3.3%; the SCFI US West route was 2089 USD/FEU, down 18.97%; the CCFI (US West route) was 1084.28 points, down 10.5% [1] PMI Indexes - Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI flash was 49.4 (expected 49.8, previous 49.4); services PMI flash was 50 (2 - month high, expected 50, previous 49.7); composite PMI flash was 50.2 (expected 50.5, previous 50.2); Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 (expected - 6, previous - 8.1) [2] - China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 points higher than May, and the same as April, back above the critical point [2] - US June Markit manufacturing PMI flash was 52 (same as May, higher than expected 51, 2 - month high); services PMI flash was 53.1 (lower than previous 53.7, higher than expected 52.9, 2 - month low); composite PMI flash was 52.8 (lower than previous 53, higher than expected 52.1, 2 - month low) [2] Group 4: Trading Strategies Short - term Strategy - For risk - takers, it was recommended to go long lightly on the 2510 contract below 1300 (has made a profit of over 100 points). Consider partial profit - taking if the market rises today. It is recommended to go short lightly on the EC2512 contract above 1650 and set stop - loss and take - profit levels [3] Arbitrage Strategy - With the volatile international situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [3] Long - term Strategy - It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further judgments [3] Group 5: Market Conditions of Contracts - On July 10, the main contract 2508 closed at 2022.5, up 1.62%, with a trading volume of 3.46 million lots and an open interest of 3.09 million lots, a decrease of 403 lots from the previous day [3] - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 16% [3] - The company's margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 26% [3] - The intraday opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [3]