能源隐忧初现，产业打击隐伏 俄乌冲突刚爆发那会儿，欧洲那边就乱套了。天然气管道供应中断，价格一下子上蹿下跳，荷兰期货市 场在2022年8月最高冲到每兆瓦时339欧元，比之前贵了好几倍。德国工厂用电贵得离谱，每千瓦时0.5 欧元，差不多是我们这边的七到八倍。 钢铁、铝和化肥这些行业成本直线上升，德国钢铁每吨比我们高出188美元，电解铝多出5110美元，合 成氨也贵了3280美元。不少企业扛不住了，关门的关门，搬走的搬走，几千家工厂转移到能源便宜的地 方去，美国和中国成了热门选择。 欧洲工业大国像德国、法国、意大利，损失惨重，直接经济损失超1500亿欧元，间接的得有万亿级别。 港口外头，集装箱堆得老高，设备拉走运往海外。郊区车间里头，机器停摆，灰尘到处飞。 美国加入"午夜锤击"，炸福尔多地下，地面震动。冲突12天，伊朗导弹落卡塔尔美军基地，尘埃中士兵 撤。停火后红海不稳，船长扫描海面，警惕无人机。 油价波动，升级时近91美元。要全面爆发，伊朗出口减200万桶/日，价飙108美元。我们从中东进口石 油八成，红海主道。 油轮队海军护航，雷达锁定目标，直升机监视。一旦封锁，供应断，炼油厂原料缺，管道空转，工人等 补给。 ...

地缘冲突预期推升油价，节后PX、TA有上涨动能 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 库存端对PTA价格提供一定支撑，PTA工厂库存可能处于低位，基差正值暗 示库存消化良好，供需紧平衡状态可能抑制下行空间；PX库存虽未直接提 及，但供应增加预期可能推升库存水平，加剧价格回调压力。整体看，低 库存环境可能为PTA价格提供韧性，而PX库存累积风险则需警惕。 2. 聚酯 02月13日，短纤主力合约收6628.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.09%。华东 市场现货价为6590.0元/吨，与前一交易日持平，基差为-38.0元/吨。 1. PTA&PX 02月13日，PX 主力合约收7236.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌1.04%，基差 为-87.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收5204.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌0.31%， 基差为16.0元/吨。 成本端，02月13日，布油主力合约收盘67.55美元/桶。WTI收62.91美元/ 桶。 供给端： 原油价格上行在 ...

（原标题：A股午评：三大指数均涨超1%，超4200股上涨！油气、黄金及化工板块领涨） A股马年首个交易日迎来开门红！三大指数集体上涨，沪指涨1.17%报4129.78点，深证成指涨1.82%， 创业板指涨1.76%。沪深京三市半日成交额15210亿元，较上日放量3074亿元，全市场超4200只个股上 涨。盘面上，地缘冲突、美国关税政策不确定性再度引发市场担忧，油气、黄金、有色金属、化工板块 涨幅居前，影视院线股集体调整。(格隆汇) ...

石油ETF富国（159148）跟踪国证石油天然气指数，聚焦于A股市场中与石油、天然气全产业链相关的 上市公司，覆盖勘探开发、设备服务、燃气输配及综合性能源运营等核心环节；标普油气ETF （513350）则聚焦美股油气勘探和生产领域的个股。 今日盘间，周期板块延续强势，基本金属、化工原料等行业涨势不俗，助推相关ETF走高。截至发稿， 富国基金旗下的标普油气ETF（513350）涨超7.4%，石油ETF富国（159148）、有色ETF富国 （159168）、化工50ETF（516120）分别上涨5.70%、3.08%、2.54%。 消息面上，A股春节休市期间，美伊紧张局势加剧，市场对原油供应中断的担忧升温，同时地缘风险也 推高了有色及化工品的价格。 研究机构表示，在地缘冲突仍存在不确定性的前提下，中长期原油供需格局仍具备景气基础，在长期主 义视角下，持续看好"三桶油"及油服板块。此外，宏观经济修复提振化工需求，长期来看化工品产能出 清利好龙头企业。 对相关板块感兴趣的投资者，可以关注富国基金旗下的标普油气ETF（513350）、石油ETF富国 （159148）、有色ETF富国（159168）、化工50ETF（51 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global macro environment is complex and volatile, with expectations of changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, leading to increased volatility and sector rotation in the commodity market [1] Group 1: Market Characteristics and Trends - The core characteristics of the current market include significant price volatility for certain commodities and a notable premium for safe assets, with continued sector differentiation [2] - The pricing mechanism in the commodity market is undergoing fundamental changes, with a shift from global economic recovery to asset allocation driven by geopolitical conflicts [3] - The demand for strategic metals is being re-evaluated due to the weakening of the dollar's credit, the AI revolution increasing demand for new materials, and countries competing for strategic resources [3] Group 2: Currency and Economic Factors - The RMB is expected to appreciate moderately with two-way fluctuations, with a forecasted range of 6.8 to 7 against the USD for 2026 [4] - The core support for RMB appreciation comes from a changing global asset allocation logic and a significant trade surplus, which exceeded 1 trillion USD in 2025 [4] - Potential negative factors for the RMB exchange rate include the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts and domestic export performance [4] Group 3: Asset Allocation and Investment Strategies - The pricing power of commodities is shifting from traditional supply-demand dynamics to macro narratives, focusing on de-dollarization, the AI revolution, and supply chain dynamics [5] - Both industry clients and ordinary traders are advised to enhance risk awareness and adapt to changes in market pricing mechanisms, focusing on investment opportunities in strategic resources [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the short - term (within a week), the short - term view of coking coal 2605 is "oscillation", the short - term view of coke 2605 is also "oscillation"; for the medium - term (two weeks to one month), both coking coal 2605 and coke 2605 are in "oscillation"; for the intraday, coking coal 2605 is "strong", and coke 2605 is "oscillation with a slight upward trend". The reference view for both coking coal and coke is "oscillation" [1] - It is expected that the coking coal price will maintain a low - level oscillation pattern before the Spring Festival, and the coke main contract will also maintain a low - level oscillation pattern before the Spring Festival [5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal - Price and Change: The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port in the spot market is 1,230 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2.50% [5] - Supply and Demand: As the Spring Festival approaches, more coal mines stop production for holidays, resulting in a short - term contraction of coking coal supply. However, downstream enterprises' coal inventories have been replenished to a sufficient level, and coal mine production will quickly resume after the Spring Festival. The long - term supply - demand situation is expected to be loose [5] - Market Outlook: In the context of a lack of long - term driving factors, it is expected that the coking coal price will maintain a low - level oscillation pattern before the Spring Festival [5] - Potential Positive Factors: Uncertainties in the US - Iran geopolitical conflict during the Spring Festival; economic policy expectations around the Two Sessions after the Spring Festival; possible new "anti - involution" policies in the coal industry due to the continuous low - level operation of coal prices [5] 3.2 Coke - Price and Change: The latest quotation of the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1,520 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1,470 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.68% [6] - Supply and Demand: There has been no significant change in the coke fundamentals recently. Both supply and demand have increased slightly at a low level, and the futures lack unilateral momentum [6] - Market Outlook: It is expected that the coke main contract will maintain a low - level oscillation pattern before the Spring Festival [6] - Uncertainties: "US - Iran geopolitical risks", "Two Sessions policy expectations", and "anti - involution policy expectations" [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are expected to continue rising in 2026 due to macroeconomic factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, dollar credit crises, geopolitical conflicts, and central bank gold purchases [1][2] - The recent volatility in gold prices is characterized as a "roller coaster" market, influenced by the rapid price increases and subsequent corrections expected to last for 2-3 months [1] - Central banks have been consistently increasing their gold reserves, driven by motives such as reserve diversification, hedging against geopolitical risks, and enhancing monetary confidence management [1] Group 2 - The long-term support for gold prices is anticipated from slow variables like Federal Reserve rate cuts and central bank purchases, alongside short-term catalysts from geopolitical conflicts and currency credit concerns [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual ratings for each commodity: - Bullish: Methanol, Urea [3][37] - Bearish: LPG, L, PP, PVC, MEG, Asphalt, Glass, Soda Ash [1][15][19] - Neutral: Crude Oil, Natural Gas, PTA [1][6][26] 2. Report's Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East lead to short - term volatile and slightly stronger prices. However, the supply - surplus pattern remains, and with the arrival of the demand off - season, there is still downward pressure on oil prices [1][8]. - **LPG**: The cost - end oil price rebounds due to geopolitical disturbances in the short term, but the geopolitical premium is decreasing. The supply of liquefied gas is decreasing, and the chemical demand support is weakening. The inventory shows some positive factors [1]. - **L**: The basis weakens, and the market is in a bearish consolidation. Linear production is at a high level, and the supply is expected to continue to increase, with a bearish fundamental outlook [15][18]. - **PP**: The cost of propane and propylene fluctuates strongly. The supply - demand drive is insufficient before the festival. The current supply - demand is weak, and the PDH profit is low, providing cost support [19][22]. - **PVC**: The decline space of liquid caustic soda is limited. The chlor - alkali comprehensive gross profit is at a low level, providing bottom - cost support. Short - term export rush continues, but high inventory restricts the upward space, and the market is expected to fluctuate before the festival [23][25]. - **PTA**: The valuation is reasonable, and the processing fee has improved. The supply - side device maintenance is in line with the plan, and the downstream demand is seasonally weak. The 1 - 2 month inventory is slightly accumulated, but the overall expectation is positive [26][27]. - **MEG**: The valuation is low. The domestic device load increases, and the overseas device maintenance plan increases. The downstream demand is seasonally weak, and the inventory is expected to accumulate in 1 - 2 months. The short - term demand is under pressure, but the fundamentals are expected to improve in 3 - 4 months [29][30]. - **Methanol**: The domestic device starts to increase, and the overseas device load is expected to increase. The demand shows signs of improvement, and the cost has support. The fundamentals are slightly loose, but geopolitical conflicts still have uncertainties [32][34]. - **Urea**: The overall start - up load is rising, and the demand is strong in the short term. However, as the downstream demand enters the holiday off - season, the support is expected to weaken. The price is restricted by "export quota system" and "price stabilization policy" [37][38]. - **LNG**: The impact of the cold wave in the United States decreases, and the demand - side support gradually weakens, resulting in a weakening gas price trend [41][44]. - **Asphalt**: The cost - end oil price fluctuates disorderly. The asphalt valuation is high, and the supply - side uncertainty increases. Attention should be paid to the import situation of asphalt raw materials [46][50]. - **Glass**: The warehouse receipts increase, and the market is in a low - level consolidation. The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory is slightly accumulated. Supply reduction is needed to digest the high inventory [51][54]. - **Soda Ash**: The warehouse receipts continue to increase. The real - estate demand is weak, and the heavy - alkali demand support is insufficient. The supply is under pressure, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [55][58]. 3. Summary of Each Commodity Crude Oil - **Price**: WTI主力 fell 0.62% to $63.96/barrel, Brent主力 fell 0.35% to $68.8/barrel, and SC主力 rose 1.39% to 472.5 yuan/barrel [7]. - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ maintains the production policy, and the production in the Middle East and the United States shows different trends. Indian imports increase, and the US inventory shows different changes in different types of oil [9]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand fundamentals will improve after the first quarter. In the short term, it fluctuates and adjusts, and the SC price range is [465 - 485] [10]. LPG - **Price**: On February 10, the PG main contract closed at 4203 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. Spot prices in different regions showed different changes [11][12]. - **Fundamentals**: It is mainly affected by the cost - end oil price. The supply is stable, the downstream chemical demand weakens, and the inventory accumulates [13]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - to - long term, the price center is expected to move down. In the short term, the cost - end oil price is uncertain, and the fundamental outlook is bearish. The PG price range is [4200 - 4300] [14]. L - **Price**: L05 closed at 6775 yuan/ton, up 0.8% [16]. - **Fundamentals**: The basis weakens, and the linear production is at a high level. The supply is expected to increase, and the fundamental outlook is bearish [18]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious in operation before the festival and pay attention to the verification after the festival. The L price range is [6650 - 6850] [18]. PP - **Price**: PP05 closed at 6678 yuan/ton, up 0.9% [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost of propane and propylene fluctuates strongly. The supply - demand is weak, and the PDH profit is low, providing cost support [22]. - **Strategy**: Light - position and cautious operation before the festival. Pay attention to the future demand verification. The PP price range is [6600 - 6800] [22]. PVC - **Price**: V05 closed at 4971 yuan/ton, down 0.4% [23]. - **Fundamentals**: The decline space of liquid caustic soda is limited. The chlor - alkali comprehensive gross profit is at a low level, and the high inventory restricts the upward space. The market is expected to fluctuate before the festival [25]. - **Strategy**: Light - position operation. The V price range is [4850 - 5050] [25]. PTA - **Price**: TA05 closed at 5166 yuan/ton, at the 85.7% quantile level in the past three months [27]. - **Fundamentals**: The valuation is reasonable, the supply - side device maintenance is in line with the plan, and the downstream demand is seasonally weak. The 1 - 2 month inventory is slightly accumulated [27]. - **Strategy**: The fundamental expectation is positive. Pay attention to buying on significant pullbacks. The TA05 price range is [5110 - 5220] [28]. MEG - **Price**: EG05 closed at 3959 yuan/ton [29]. - **Fundamentals**: The valuation is low. The domestic device load increases, and the overseas device maintenance plan increases. The downstream demand is seasonally weak, and the inventory is expected to accumulate in 1 - 2 months [30]. - **Strategy**: Layout long positions on dips in the near - term. The EG05 price range is [3680 - 3780] [31]. Methanol - **Price**: The main contract is at a high valuation level in the past three months [34]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic device starts to increase, and the overseas device load is expected to increase. The demand shows signs of improvement, and the cost has support. The fundamentals are slightly loose, but geopolitical conflicts still have uncertainties [34]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions. The MA05 price range is [2219 - 2369] [36]. Urea - **Price**: The main contract closed at 1776 yuan/ton, at the 77.8% quantile level in the past year [39]. - **Fundamentals**: The overall start - up load is rising, and the demand is strong in the short term. However, as the downstream demand enters the holiday off - season, the support is expected to weaken. The price is restricted by "export quota system" and "price stabilization policy" [38][39]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious in chasing up. The UR05 price range is [1760 - 1790] [40]. LNG - **Price**: On February 9, the NG main contract closed at $3.140/million British thermal units, down 7.78% [43]. - **Fundamentals**: The impact of the cold wave in the United States decreases, and the demand - side support gradually weakens, resulting in a weakening gas price trend [44]. - **Strategy**: The demand supports the gas price in the consumption peak season, but the supply is relatively sufficient, and the gas price is under pressure. The NG price range is [2.900 - 3.400] [45]. Asphalt - **Price**: On February 10, the BU main contract closed at 3343 yuan/ton, up 0.27% [48]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost - end oil price fluctuates disorderly. The asphalt valuation is high, and the supply - side uncertainty increases. Attention should be paid to the import situation of asphalt raw materials [49][50]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and prevent risks. The BU price range is [3300 - 3400] [50]. Glass - **Price**: FG05 closed at 1070 yuan/ton, down 0.7% [52]. - **Fundamentals**: The warehouse receipts increase, and the market is in a low - level consolidation. The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory is slightly accumulated. Supply reduction is needed to digest the high inventory [54]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious in chasing up before the cold - repair is further implemented. The FG price range is [1040 - 1090] [54]. Soda Ash - **Price**: SA05 closed at 1171 yuan/ton, down 0.8% [56]. - **Fundamentals**: The warehouse receipts continue to increase. The real - estate demand is weak, and the heavy - alkali demand support is insufficient. The supply is under pressure [58]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rallies before the maintenance is further intensified. The SA price range is [1150 - 1200] [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Crude Oil**: Oscillatory adjustment [1] - **LPG**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **L**: Bearish continuation [1] - **PP**: Bearish continuation [1] - **PVC**: Range-bound oscillation [1] - **PX/PTA**: High-level consolidation [2] - **MEG**: Cautiously bearish [2] - **Methanol**: Cautiously bullish [3] - **Urea**: Cautiously bullish [3] - **Natural Gas**: Oscillatory consolidation [6] - **Asphalt**: Cautiously bearish [6] - **Glass**: Low-level oscillation [6] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish continuation [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are fluctuating, causing short-term oil prices to be oscillatory and slightly stronger. However, the oversupply pattern remains unturned, and with the arrival of the off-season for demand, there is still downward pressure on oil prices [1][9]. - **LPG**: Cost support is weakening, and the chemical demand is also decreasing, leading to a weakening of LPG [1]. - **L**: Upstream inventory has dropped to a low level compared to the same period. During the pre - holiday period, there is a vacuum in fundamental demand. With the decline in ethane cost and an expected increase in supply, the fundamentals are bearish [1][20]. - **PP**: Propane prices are rising, strengthening the cost support of PDH. Before the holiday, there is insufficient supply - demand drive. The current fundamentals show both weak supply and demand, with a parking ratio of 20%, alleviating supply pressure. PDH profits are still at a low level, providing cost support [1][24]. - **PVC**: The March Formosa Plastics quotation has increased, and the profit of Shandong ECU has been significantly compressed. The downward space for liquid caustic soda is limited. Although there is short - term export rush, the high - inventory structure is difficult to change, suppressing the upward space. It is expected to oscillate before the holiday [1][28]. - **PX/PTA**: The valuation level is reasonable. The supply side has some device changes, and downstream demand is seasonally weak. The cost side of PX is in a weak balance. Although there is some inventory accumulation in January - February, the outlook is positive [2][30]. - **MEG**: The overall valuation is low. The supply side has an increase in domestic load, and overseas device maintenance is increasing. Downstream demand is seasonally weak, and there is inventory accumulation pressure in January - February. However, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve from March to April [2][33]. - **Methanol**: The social and port inventories are decreasing. The domestic methanol device starts to increase the load, and overseas devices are expected to increase the load. The demand side has improved, and there is cost support. The fundamentals are slightly loose, but geopolitical conflicts still have uncertainties [3][37]. - **Urea**: The overall profit is good, and the start - up load is continuously increasing. The demand side is short - term strong, but downstream demand is entering the holiday off - season, and the support is expected to weaken. Under the background of "export quota system" and "supply guarantee and price stabilization", the price has a ceiling and a floor [3][41]. - **Natural Gas**: The cold wave has weakened, and the export volume has increased. The short - term demand boost from the cold wave has been priced in, and the supply side is recovering, leading to an oscillatory adjustment of gas prices [6]. - **Asphalt**: The cost side of oil prices is oscillating and adjusting, and the basis is weak. The disk valuation is high, and the short - term trend is weak. The supply - demand is generally loose, and the demand has entered the off - season [6]. - **Glass**: The fundamentals maintain a pattern of both weak supply and demand. The enterprise inventory is slightly increasing at a high level, and the demand has entered the seasonal off - season. The daily melting volume has decreased, and more supply reduction is needed to digest the high inventory [6][57]. - **Soda Ash**: The number of warehouse receipts has increased, and industrial hedging is exerting pressure. The real - estate demand is continuously weak, and the heavy - soda demand support is insufficient. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the supply is expected to be under pressure [6][61]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices were oscillatory and slightly stronger. WTI rose 1.27%, Brent rose 1.45%, and the domestic SC rose 0.06% [8]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term drivers are the repeated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with high uncertainties. The core driver is the oversupply of crude oil in the off - season, and global crude oil inventories are accelerating the accumulation. The supply side: OPEC+ maintains the production policy, and the US crude oil production is increasing. The demand side: India's crude oil imports in December increased by 1.6% month - on - month. The inventory side: US crude oil inventories decreased, while gasoline inventories increased, and distillate inventories decreased [9][10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand fundamentals will improve after the first quarter. In the short - term, it is oscillatory and adjusting, with increased volatility. Pay attention to geopolitical developments in the Middle East. The SC range is [465 - 485] [11]. LPG - **Market Review**: On February 9, the PG main contract closed at 4210 yuan/ton, a 0.43% decrease. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4470 (+20) yuan/ton, 4475 (+0) yuan/ton, and 4765 (-65) yuan/ton respectively [14]. - **Basic Logic**: The trend is mainly anchored to the cost - side oil prices. In the short - term, oil prices are rebounding due to geopolitical disturbances, but are under pressure in the long - term. The supply is stable, downstream chemical demand is weakening, and inventory is accumulating. The number of warehouse receipts has increased [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the price center is expected to continue to decline. In the short - term, the cost - side oil prices have increased uncertainties. The PG range is [4150 - 4250] [16]. L - **Market Review**: The L05 contract closed at 6721 yuan/ton, a 1.3% decrease. The L05 basis was - 131 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was - 56 yuan/ton [18][19]. - **Basic Logic**: Upstream inventory is at a low level compared to the same period. During the pre - holiday period, there is a vacuum in fundamental demand. With the decline in ethane cost and an expected increase in supply, the fundamentals are bearish. The range is [6650 - 6850] [20]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP05 contract closed at 6691 yuan/ton, a 0.2% increase. The PP05 basis was - 56 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 32 yuan/ton [22][23]. - **Basic Logic**: Propane prices are rising, strengthening the cost support of PDH. Before the holiday, there is insufficient supply - demand drive. The current fundamentals show both weak supply and demand, with a parking ratio of 20%, alleviating supply pressure. PDH profits are still at a low level, providing cost support. The range is [6550 - 6750] [24]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V05 contract closed at 4981 yuan/ton, a 1.4% decrease. The V05 basis was - 221 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was - 113 yuan/ton [26][27]. - **Basic Logic**: The March Formosa Plastics quotation has increased, and the profit of Shandong ECU has been significantly compressed. The downward space for liquid caustic soda is limited. Although there is short - term export rush, the high - inventory structure is difficult to change, suppressing the upward space. It is expected to oscillate before the holiday. The range is [4850 - 5050] [28]. PX/PTA - **Basic Logic**: In terms of valuation, TA05 is at a relatively high level in the past three months. The supply side has some device changes, and downstream demand is seasonally weak. The cost side of PX is in a weak balance. There is some inventory accumulation in January - February [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The fundamentals are expected to improve, but short - term drivers are limited. Pay attention to capital behavior. Buy on significant corrections for the 05 contract. The TA05 range is [5110 - 5220] [31]. MEG - **Market Review**: The EG05 contract closed at 3959 yuan/ton. The East China basis was - 113 (-10) yuan/ton. - **Basic Logic**: The overall valuation is low. The supply side has an increase in domestic load, and overseas device maintenance is increasing. Downstream demand is seasonally weak, and there is inventory accumulation pressure in January - February. However, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve from March to April [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on the near - term contracts on dips. The EG05 range is [3680 - 3780] [34]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol main contract is at a high valuation level in the past three months. The comprehensive profit is - 250.9 (-15.9) yuan/ton, and the East China basis is - 39 (-28) [37]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic methanol device starts to increase the load, and overseas devices are expected to increase the load. The demand side has improved, and there is cost support. The fundamentals are slightly loose, but geopolitical conflicts still have uncertainties [37]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The January arrival volume slightly exceeded expectations, domestic start - up is at a high level, and port inventory has decreased. The demand side has stopped falling. Hold long positions. The MA05 range is [2219 - 2369] [39]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea main contract closed at 1776 yuan/ton. The Shandong small - particle basis was 4 (+2) yuan/ton, and the UR5 - 9 spread was 38 yuan/ton [42]. - **Basic Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low. The overall start - up load is continuously increasing. The demand side is short - term strong, but downstream demand is entering the holiday off - season, and the support is expected to weaken. Under the background of "export quota system" and "supply guarantee and price stabilization", the price has a ceiling and a floor [41]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Supply and demand are both strong, but downstream demand is entering the holiday off - season, and the support is expected to weaken. Be cautious about chasing up. The UR05 range is [1760 - 1790] [43]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On February 6, the NG main contract closed at 3.405 dollars/million British thermal units, a 3.16% decrease. The US Henry Hub spot price was 4.030 (-0.600) dollars/million British thermal units, the Dutch TTF spot price was 13.417 (+0.815) dollars/million British thermal units, and the Chinese LNG market price was 3821 (-75) yuan/ton [46]. - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is that the impact of the US cold wave has decreased, and the demand - side support is gradually weakening, leading to a weakening of gas prices. The cost - profit situation shows a decline in domestic LNG retail profit. The supply side: US LNG exports decreased in January, and the number of natural gas rigs increased. The demand side: Japan's LNG imports decreased in 2025. The inventory side: US natural gas inventories decreased [47]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the Northern Hemisphere winter, the demand for combustion and heating increases, but the supply side is relatively sufficient, putting pressure on gas prices. The NG range is [2.900 - 3.400] [48]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On February 9, the BU main contract closed at 3324 yuan/ton, a 1.54% decrease. The market prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 3210 (-30) yuan/ton, 3290 (+20) yuan/ton, and 3310 (+0) yuan/ton respectively [51]. - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is the repeated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, causing oil prices to be oscillatory and slightly stronger. The cost - profit situation shows an increase in asphalt comprehensive profit. The supply side: The domestic asphalt production in February 2026 decreased. The demand side: The asphalt import and export volume increased in 2025. The inventory side: The social inventory of 70 sample enterprises increased [52]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation is high, and the supply - side uncertainty has increased. Pay attention to the import situation of asphalt raw materials. Be cautious about geopolitical risks. The BU range is [3300 - 3400] [53]. Glass - **Market Review**: The FG05 contract closed at 1078 yuan/ton, a 0.6% increase. The FG05 basis was - 52 yuan/ton, and the FG59 spread was - 99 yuan/ton [55][56]. - **Basic Logic**: Pay attention to the sustainability of supply reduction. The fundamentals maintain a pattern of both weak supply and demand. The enterprise inventory is slightly increasing at a high level, and the demand has entered the seasonal off - season. The daily melting volume has decreased, and more supply reduction is needed to digest the high inventory. Be cautious about chasing up before further cold - repair is realized. The FG range is [1030 - 1080] [57]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA05 contract closed at 1181 yuan/ton, a 0.8% decrease. The SA05 basis was - 55 yuan/ton, and the SA59 spread was - 63 yuan/ton [59][60]. - **Basic Logic**: The number of warehouse receipts has increased, and industrial hedging is exerting pressure. The real - estate demand is continuously weak, and the heavy - soda demand support is insufficient. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the supply is expected to be under pressure. Short - sell on rallies before further maintenance intensifies. The SA range is [1150 - 1200] [61].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-02-10 ⾼位震荡中修复，配置资⾦回补⽀撑价 格 贵⾦属在前期剧烈波动后出现修复性反弹，⻩⾦重返关键整数位附近，⽩ 银同步回升但弹性更⼤。短期交易逻辑由单边趋势转向⾼波动下的结构性 再平衡，配置与对冲资⾦回补对价格形成⽀撑，宏观与政策不确定性仍是 核⼼背景。 黄金观点：高位震荡中企稳修复，中期多头逻辑未被破坏。 逻辑：前期去杠杆与情绪踩踏结束后，黄金在关键价位附近获得配置 盘承接。官方需求延续，对价格波动的容忍度较高，压缩了下行空 间。海外方面，市场继续围绕美国就业与通胀数据交易，美联储政策 路径与独立性讨论反复，对实际利率与美元形成扰动，利好黄金的防 御与配置属性。 展望：在宏观数据未形成一致指向前，黄金更可能维持高位宽幅震 荡，回调阶段关注配置资金承接力度，中期仍受官方购金与美元信用 逻辑支撑。 展望：短期随黄金震荡偏强运行，但需警惕快速拉升后的技术性回 吐，中期仍取决于贵金属整体配置需求与宏观风险定价。 风险提示：特朗普政策变化；美联储货币政策变化；地缘冲突变化。 白银观点：波动显著放大，跟随黄金修复但节奏更快。 ...