1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - After the new Fed governor Milan's dovish monetary - policy statement, the prices of precious metals, especially silver, were strongly affected by the expectation of loose monetary policy. The report suggests paying attention to the possibility of Milan becoming the new Fed chairman and recommends a strategy of buying on dips for precious metals. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 823 - 850 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 9799 - 10800 yuan/kilogram [2][3][4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - Shanghai gold rose 1.02% to 838.26 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 2.68% to 10204.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.53% to 3725.30 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 1.32% to 43.52 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.14%, and the US dollar index was 97.69 [2] - Milan, a new Fed governor, expressed a dovish stance, supporting a 150 - basis - point interest - rate cut this year, and believed that the Fed's long - term tightening would pose risks to the employment market [2] 3.2 Market Outlook - Milan's speech on Friday had a significant impact on the market's expectations of the Fed's monetary policy, with an influence comparable to Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. His speech framework and dovish tendency deviated from the characteristics of existing Fed members. He also expressed his willingness to stay at the Fed under Trump's instruction [3] 3.3 Strategy Viewpoint - Pay attention to the possibility of Milan becoming the new Fed chairman. After his statement, the prices of domestic and foreign silver showed strength due to the expectation of loose monetary policy, and the price of the main contract of Shanghai silver reached a new high. It is recommended to buy on dips for precious metals, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold being 823 - 850 yuan/gram and for the main contract of Shanghai silver being 9799 - 10800 yuan/kilogram [4] 3.4 Key Data of Gold and Silver - For gold, on September 19, 2025, the closing price of the active contract on COMEX was 3719.40 dollars/ounce (up 1.12% from the previous day), the trading volume was 181,300 lots (down 17.04%), the position was 516,200 lots (up 1.29%), and the inventory was 1227 tons (up 0.47%). The closing price of LBMA gold was 3663.15 dollars/ounce (up 0.53%). The closing price of the active contract on SHFE was 830.56 yuan/gram (up 0.78%), the trading volume was 375,100 lots (down 22.77%), and the position was 448,900 lots (up 1.17%) [8] - For silver, on September 19, 2025, the closing price of the active contract on COMEX was 43.37 dollars/ounce (up 3.00%), the position was 163,000 lots (up 3.99%), and the inventory was 16300 tons (down 0.01%). The closing price of the active contract on SHFE was 9971.00 yuan/kilogram (up 1.38%), the trading volume was 1,023,900 lots (down 21.56%), and the position was 867,300 lots (up 4.17%) [8] 3.5 Price and Volume Charts - There are multiple charts showing the relationship between the price of COMEX gold and the US dollar index, real interest rate, trading volume, position, etc., as well as the price and volume relationship of Shanghai gold, London gold, and the near - far month structure of COMEX gold and Shanghai gold [10][11][13][14][18][19][24][25] - There are also charts showing the price and volume relationship of COMEX silver and Shanghai silver, the near - far month structure, and the relationship between the management fund's net long position and price [31][32][33][34][42][43][44] 3.6 ETF Holdings - The holding of SPDR gold ETF was 994.56 tons (up 1.94% from the previous day), and the holding of SLV silver ETF was 15205.14 tons (unchanged) [5] 3.7 Internal - External Price Difference Statistics - On September 19, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference of gold was - 16.12 dollars/ounce, and the SGE - LBMA price difference was - 44.24 dollars/ounce. The SHFE - COMEX price difference of silver was 0.42 dollars/ounce, and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 0.37 dollars/ounce [53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the expectation of loose monetary policy will drive the subsequent prices of platinum - group metals to perform strongly. The price of platinum, with more obvious financial attributes, is stronger than that of palladium, with more obvious industrial attributes. It is recommended to buy platinum at low prices and then focus on the opportunity to buy palladium after the rise of platinum prices is established [9][10]. - The NYMEX platinum main - contract price is expected to rise further as it has achieved 7 consecutive weekly positive lines under the drive of loose expectations. The NYMEX palladium main - contract price has stabilized around $1,100 per ounce and will be suppressed when it rebounds to $1,255 per ounce. Attention should be paid to its rebound opportunity when it touches the lower trend line [12][15]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Platinum Key Data**: The closing price of the NYMEX platinum active contract rose 1.16% to $1,419 per ounce, the five - day average trading volume rose 5.80% to 31,371.4 hands, the main - contract open interest decreased 27.85% to 47,061 hands, the inventory increased 12.40% to 18,363.77 kilograms, the CFTC managed - fund net long position increased by 1,395 hands to 14,647 hands, the CFTC commercial net short position increased by 1,130 hands to 25,106 hands, and the platinum ETF holdings increased 0.27% to 74,556.02 kilograms [10]. - **Palladium Key Data**: The closing price of the NYMEX palladium active contract fell 4.40% to $1,173.5 per ounce, the five - day average trading volume decreased 3.11% to 5,894 hands, the main - contract open interest rose 1.05% to 19,028 hands, the inventory increased 2.74% to 4,681.07 kilograms, the CFTC managed - fund net short position decreased by 775 hands to 5,191 hands, the CFTC commercial net short position increased by 373 hands to 2,077 hands, and the palladium ETF holdings increased 1.70% to 14,131.04 kilograms [10]. 3.2. Market Review - **Price and Open Interest**: The NYMEX platinum main - contract price rose 1.16% to $1,419 per ounce, and the open interest as of the latest reporting period rose to 100,289 hands. The NYMEX palladium main - contract price fell 4.4% to $1,173.5 per ounce, and the open interest as of the latest reporting period rose to 19,900 hands [21][24]. - **Domestic Platinum Price**: As of September 19, the spot price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 326.69 yuan per gram [27]. - **Lease Rate**: As of September 19, the one - month implied lease rate of platinum fell from the high of the range to 10.21%, while that of palladium rebounded to 10.21% [31]. - **CFTC Net Positions**: As of the latest reporting period on September 16, the NYMEX platinum managed - fund net long position increased by 1,395 hands to 14,647 hands, and the NYMEX palladium managed - fund net short position was 19,402 hands [34][37]. 3.3. Inventory and ETF Holdings Changes - **Platinum**: As of September 19, the total platinum ETF holdings were 74.55 tons. The CME platinum inventory increased by 1,874.87 kilograms to 18.36 tons this week [48][55]. - **Palladium**: As of September 19, the total palladium ETF holdings were 14.13 tons. The CME palladium inventory as of September 19 was 4,681.07 kilograms, an increase of 334.89 kilograms this week [51][60]. 3.4. Supply and Demand - **Platinum Supply**: The platinum production of the top 15 mines in 2025 is expected to be 127.47 tons, a 1.9% decrease from 129.95 tons in 2024. The platinum production in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to reach 33.18 tons [66]. - **Palladium Supply**: The total palladium production of the top 15 mines in 2025 will slightly contract, with a 0.86% decrease to 165.78 tons. The production in the fourth quarter will be 41.36 tons [69]. - **Chinese Imports**: China's platinum imports in August were 8.21 tons, showing a rebound from July, while palladium imports in August were 2.06 tons, showing a decline from July [72][75]. - **Automobile Production**: No specific conclusions are drawn from the automobile production data, but data on Chinese, Japanese, German, and American automobile production are presented [77][80][83]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The global platinum supply - demand balance shows a supply shortfall in 2025, and the global palladium supply - demand balance shows a supply surplus in 2025 [86][87]. 3.5. Monthly Spread and Cross - Market Spread - **NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spread**: Relevant data and charts on NYMEX platinum 1 - 4, 4 - 7, 7 - 10, and 10 - 1 spreads are presented [91][92][96]. - **NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spread**: Relevant data and charts on NYMEX palladium 3 - 6, 6 - 9, 9 - 12, and 12 - 3 spreads are presented [104][100][101]. - **London - NYMEX Spread**: Charts of the spread between the London spot platinum price and the NYMEX platinum price, and the spread between the London spot palladium price and the NYMEX palladium price are presented [106].

Market Performance - The U.S. stock market reached a new historical high following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and signals of further cuts to come, with the Nasdaq rising nearly 1% and the S&P 500 increasing by about 0.5% [2][3] - Major technology stocks performed strongly, with Nvidia's investment of $5 billion in Intel leading to a nearly 30% surge in Intel's stock, marking its largest single-day gain in nearly 40 years [3][4] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points and indicated two more cuts are expected this year to support the job market, which has driven bullish sentiment in the stock market [4][5] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell described the rate cut as "risk management," dampening some investors' expectations for a long-term easing cycle [5] Analyst Insights - Analysts expect that with the declining interest rates, investors will refocus on fundamentals, including regulatory easing, corporate earnings, and a recovering IPO market, which could benefit large tech and financial stocks [6] - In a low-interest-rate environment, large tech stocks typically outperform, while the financial sector may benefit from increased merger activity and mortgage business [6] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks faced a downturn, with the China concept stock index declining by approximately 2% [7]

美联储周三一如预期进行了9个月来的首次降息，幅度为25基点。在美联储最新利率决议公布后，华尔街大行中，高盛率先更新了其对美联储未来利 率路径的预测。 据CME"美联储观察"，目前美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为12.3%，降息25个基点的概率为87.7%。美联储12月维持利率不变概率为 0.9%，累计降息25个基点的概率为17.6%，累计降息50个基点的概率为81.6%。 29 10月25 == eshability 1 POB 2017 25 878 202 47.5% ra 99 在高盛看来， 只有通胀意外大幅上升，或者劳动力市场突然反弹，才会阻碍美联储进一步降息 。 如果不发生此类事件，美联储似乎将致力 于逐步放松货币政策，在控制通胀与支持经济之间取得平衡。 高盛强调，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的风险管理框架目前倾向于谨慎行事，多数成员释放出的信号显示，政策应继续朝着限制程度更 低的方向转变。该行表示， 这意味着到年底进一步降息将是基准情景 。 该行还预计，FOMC 2026年将进一步降息两次。 高盛的最新预测并未较该行此前的预测作出调整，且符合美联储自身的预测。 高盛在此前的研报中就预测，美联储今 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in September, largely influenced by Trump's persistent criticism of Chairman Powell [1][4][8] Group 1: Trump's Influence on Federal Reserve - Trump believes that low interest rates, combined with his "Make America Great Again" agenda, are crucial for the country's success [4] - Trump's repeated criticisms of Powell have lessened as the prospect of a rate cut approaches, although he still refers to Powell as "Mr. Too Late" for not acting sooner [4][8] - Trump has initiated the process of selecting candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair, aiming to ensure that the new appointee aligns more closely with his views [8] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions - Powell indicated a need for policy adjustments, citing a strong labor market and inflation still above the target, suggesting a rate cut is necessary [8][9] - The U.S. GDP growth slowed to 1.2% in the first half of the year, down from 2.5% the previous year, prompting cautious monetary policy [9] - The anticipated rate cut could lead to increased inflation but may also reduce U.S. debt interest expenses, highlighting the dual nature of monetary policy [12] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the news of a potential rate cut, U.S. stock markets surged, with the Dow Jones index rising by 1.96% to reach a new high [12] - The anticipated rate cut is expected to attract foreign capital into Chinese markets, as evidenced by increased foreign investment in Chinese stocks since June 2025 [12][13] - The Chinese A-share market responded positively, with significant gains following the announcement of the potential rate cut [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a high probability of a 25 basis point reduction expected soon [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Expectations - The DXY dollar index has slightly increased but remains near a two-and-a-half-month low [1] - Market expectations indicate a 97% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 3% probability of a 50 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve [1] Analyst Insights - Thu Lan Nguyen from Deutsche Bank highlights that a more aggressive rate cut could significantly pressure the dollar [1] - Nguyen warns that implementing a more substantial rate cut amid rising inflation could raise concerns about the Federal Reserve being forced into a loose monetary policy due to political pressures [1]

作为衡量仓位和情绪的指标的一周风险逆转指标显示，自欧洲央行暗示已完成宽松政策以来，市场对欧元看涨期权的需求稳步上升。 来自存管信托和清算公司（DTCC）的数据也证实了这一点：在周一交易的欧元兑美元期权中，超过三分之二是看涨押注，市场对行权价高于1.20的期权有 着显著的兴趣。 据熟悉资金流动的、因未获公开发言授权而要求匿名的外汇交易员称，先前曾通过复杂结构寻求看涨敞口的对冲基金，正转向对上涨的简单押注，这是市场 信心日益增长的迹象。 随着交易员们为本周美联储的降息做准备，欧元正迈向四年来的最高水平，美联储的降息将巩固其与欧洲央行日益分化的政策轨迹。 周二，欧元兑美元汇率攀升至自7月3日以来的最高点，逼近1.18关口，这一货币对在2025年已上涨近14%，有望创下有记录以来最佳的九个月表现。 若欧元兑美元汇率突破7月份1.1829美元的高点，将标志着自2021年9月以来的最强水平，期权市场暗示，这可能为冲向备受关注的1.20关口奠定基础。 欧元的需求正受到市场预期的支撑，即在美联储被视为即将开启宽松周期之际，欧洲央行将不会进行进一步的降息。年底前美联储将进行三次25个基点降息 的前景，正增强着这一欧洲共同货币的 ...

Group 1 - Short-term futures traders engaged in profit-taking after recent gold price increases, leading to pressure on prices [1] - December gold futures rose by $17 to $3703.4 per ounce during trading [1] Group 2 - U.S. and Chinese trade officials held high-level talks in Madrid, focusing on trade issues and global economic conditions [3] - China announced an investigation into the U.S. semiconductor industry, citing NVIDIA for potential antitrust violations [3] - Fitch Ratings downgraded France's credit rating from AA- to A+ due to rising public debt and political instability [3] - Fitch warned that France's fiscal consolidation policy space will be constrained as the 2027 presidential election approaches, predicting a fiscal deficit above 5% of GDP from 2026 to 2027 [3] Group 3 - Global financial markets are focused on the upcoming FOMC meeting, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut [4] - This would mark the first easing of monetary policy since November 2024, in response to signs of economic weakness [4] - The latest economic outlook report is expected to show weakening growth momentum and rising unemployment [4] Group 4 - From a technical perspective, December gold futures bulls have a strong advantage, with the next target above $3750 per ounce [6] - The first resistance level is at $3700 per ounce, followed by a weekly contract high of $3715.2 per ounce [6] - The first support level is at the overnight low of $3662.8 per ounce, then $3650 per ounce [6]

三季度以来，A股持续走高，但在"股债跷跷板"效应等其他因素影响下，债市则持续调整。与此同时，近一个月的纯债基金业绩也难言乐观，有近七成产品 的收益率告负，若拉长时间至年内来看，也有超两成纯债基金的收益率下跌。有业内人士认为，债券市场后续有望迎来新一波反弹行情。不过，也有观点指 出，债市调整的终点或难以精确判断，但若后续出现修复行情，债券收益率可能也不太会出现快速的报复性反弹。 | MALIN 2,957,700 6,414,100 | 639.10 558.77 507.55 | 2.94 2.57 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 72,352,200 | 523.34 | 2.41 | | | | | 2.34 | 7.01 | | 23,040,600 | 492.48 | 2.27 | 21.37 | | 002,609,200 | 491.13 | 2.26 | 2.10 | | 19,590,800 | 438.42 | 2.02 | | | | 423.00 | | | | STITLE US | | | | | 8941,200 | 346.4 | | | | 7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the expectation of a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, as indicated by President Trump and market analysts, with a focus on the implications for the economy and financial markets [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision - President Trump anticipates a "large rate cut" from the Federal Reserve during its upcoming meeting [1][2]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a rate cut for the first time since December of the previous year, with a 96.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut and only a 3.6% chance of a 50 basis point cut [3]. - The upcoming meeting's statement, dot plot, and voting results will be crucial for determining the future direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [10]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - Recent economic data, including a negative Producer Price Index (PPI) for August and weak labor market signals, suggest a "dovish" tone from the Federal Reserve [4][5][6]. - Financial markets are optimistic about a new rate cut cycle, with asset prices reaching high levels, including record highs for major stock indices [6]. - Analysts predict that the combination of moderate inflation and a weak labor market will facilitate the Federal Reserve's initiation of a rate cut cycle, with expectations of a total reduction of 125 basis points over the next five meetings [10]. Group 3: Unemployment and Economic Growth Forecasts - The Congressional Budget Office has downgraded its economic growth forecast for the U.S. while raising projections for inflation and unemployment rates [11]. - The unemployment rate for African Americans has sharply increased, highlighting a crisis for this demographic amid a weakening labor market [12][15]. - The report indicates that the unemployment rate for African Americans reached 7.5% in August, significantly higher than the national average, reflecting broader economic challenges [15].