纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯在11月底的讲话中曾提到，经济增长已显现放缓迹象，劳动力需求也有所减弱。他同时表示，近期政策存在进一步调 整的空间。这一表态被市场解读为偏向温和，间接推动了市场对美联储未来可能实施宽松货币政策的预期升温。 周二亚洲交易时段尾声，国际白银价格在每盎司58.00美元附近呈现窄幅波动。市场整体交投情绪趋于谨慎，投资者普遍将目光聚焦于即将在周三公布的美 联储货币政策决议。 在这一关键事件落地前，白银作为无固定收益的贵金属，走势暂时进入横向整理阶段。 根据CME联邦观察工具的最新数据，目前市场预期美联储在12月政策会议上加息25个基点至3.50%-3.75%的可能性约为89.4%。这一预期在近期就业增长放 缓的背景下，进一步强化了市场对美联储可能转向鸽派立场的猜测。 整体来看，只要价格能稳定运行在主要均线之上，市场对银价的中期态度仍偏乐观。短线可能会出现技术性回调，但在趋势尚未被破坏之前，波动更像是强 势中的整理过程。随着关键经济数据的逐步公布，市场方向有望变得更加清晰。 为了更清晰地把握美国劳动力市场的实际状况，投资者正密切关注将于格林威治标准时间15:00发布的10月JOLTS职位 ...

摩根大通分析师在9月的一份报告中告知客户，过去两年，与人工智能相关的公司贡献了标普500指数约 75%的回报。尽管对人工智能泡沫的担忧日益加剧，但这一趋势尚无消退迹象。 美联储宽松政策助力 美联储在9月和10月实施了降息，市场普遍预期本周还将再次降息，这一举措通过降低企业借贷成本、 支撑高企的股票估值，进一步利好股市。奥本海默表示，美联储降息是标普500指数上涨的主要催化剂 之一。 奥本海默市场策略师约翰·斯托尔茨弗斯（John Stoltzfus）周一在给客户的报告中写道："要实现我们 2026年的目标价，核心在于货币政策、财政政策，以及创新与企业盈利增长的持续推进——这些因素均 已对股价形成支撑，也是明年盈利和营收增长的关键。" 这位策略师还称，前景进一步向好的一点是，若通胀保持可控，美联储明年"可能会再将基准利率下调 一到两次"。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 三家华尔街券商发布的新年股市展望，均传递出一致的看涨信号：美股即将迎来大幅上涨。奥本海默 （Oppenheimer）预测，标普500指数到2026年底将飙升至8100点，较上周五收盘价上涨18%。沃尔夫 研究（Wolf ...

本周，全球多国央行将密集召开货币政策会议，其中美联储议息会议最受瞩目，市场已近乎完全定价其 将宣布降息，但联储内部政策分歧为结果增添不确定性。 截至北京时间16:46，现货黄金报4209.89美元/盎司，日内涨0.31%；现货白银报58.40美元/盎司，日内涨 0.22%。 绿色能源转型带来的工业需求爆发是白银供需缺口的核心驱动力。 印度作为全球第二大白银消费国，近期创纪录采购导致伦敦实物市场缺货，且印度央行将于2026年允许 白银质押贷款，有望进一步推高需求。 摘要现货黄金目前在4200美元/盎司附近筑底，整体仍保持强势上升趋势，而白银则成为真正的明星， 上周一举突破58美元/盎司，上周五更是一度刷新历史高点至59.30美元/盎司。美元指数近期走低，徘徊 在一个月低点附近，使得以美元计价的黄金对其他货币持有者更为便宜，刺激了需求。 现货黄金目前在4200美元/盎司附近筑底，整体仍保持强势上升趋势，而白银则成为真正的明星，上周 一举突破58美元/盎司，上周五更是一度刷新历史高点至59.30美元/盎司。美元指数近期走低，徘徊在一 个月低点附近，使得以美元计价的黄金对其他货币持有者更为便宜，刺激了需求。 市场分析 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the economic situation and market trends of various commodities. It points out that China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, aiming to promote stable economic development and improve quality and efficiency. The market trends of different commodities are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, international policies, and macro - economic indicators [1][6]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Main News on the Day - **International News**: The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman responded to the Japanese Prime Minister's remarks on Taiwan, emphasizing that Asian neighbors and the international community should remain vigilant and urging Japan to reflect on its actions [6]. - **Domestic News**: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze the economic work in 2026, emphasizing the implementation of proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, and highlighting the importance of people's livelihood and economic planning [6]. - **Industry News**: From January to November, the sales revenue of the mobile communication equipment retail industry and the household appliance retail industry increased by 20.3% and 26.5% respectively year - on - year, and the sales revenue of new energy passenger cars increased by 19.1% year - on - year [6]. II. Daily Returns of Foreign Markets - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.35%, the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 0.87%, ICE Brent crude oil decreased by 2.16%, and LME copper increased by 0.09% on December 8 compared with December 7 [7]. III. Morning Comments on Major Commodities - **Financial Commodities** - **Stock Index**: Before the policies of the Fed's December interest - rate meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference are officially announced, the stock market is expected to be volatile, and funds may be more cautious. After the policies are clear, market risk appetite is expected to increase [8]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The long - term Treasury bond futures prices remain weak due to factors such as the expected increase in policy introduction, the reduction of demand for long - term Treasury bonds, and the impact of new fund sales regulations [2][9][10]. - **Energy and Chemical Commodities** - **Crude Oil**: The overall downward trend of crude oil is difficult to reverse. The US labor market shows signs of stagnation, and the sanctions on Russian oil companies may have only a short - term impact on supply [11]. - **Methanol**: Methanol is expected to be weak in the short term. The domestic methanol plant operating rate has increased, and the coastal inventory has decreased, but it is still at a high level [12]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. Overseas supply pressure exists, while domestic supply elasticity is weak, and demand supports the stable operation of the all - steel tire industry [13]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins are in a low - level oscillation process. The downstream demand is stable, but market sentiment is affected by the weakness of crude oil and other commodities [14]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both glass and soda ash are in the process of inventory digestion. The market is cautious. The adjustment effect of the glass supply side needs time, and the supply - demand digestion pressure of soda ash increases [15][16]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Although precious metals are weakly volatile in the short term, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged due to factors such as the weakening of the US dollar and central bank gold purchases [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price closed lower at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and the global copper supply - demand is expected to turn into a deficit due to mining supply disruptions [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price closed lower at night. The zinc concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and the overall supply - demand difference is not obvious, but market sentiment needs to be concerned [19]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term aluminum price may face a correction. The long - term supply limitation and low inventory support the aluminum price, and the medium - to - long - term outlook is optimistic [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The current price of lithium carbonate has a high risk of chasing up. In the long term, it is recommended to take a bullish approach after a correction [21][22]. - **Black Commodities** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term. The demand for coking coal and coke is affected by the expected reduction in iron - making production, but policy expectations may provide upward momentum [23]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term. The market shows an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, but the low inventory level of steel mills and the obvious discount of the futures price support the price [24]. - **Steel**: The steel price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, but the positive macro - expectations and the stability of raw material prices support the price [25]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: The protein meal is expected to be weak. The Brazilian soybean planting progress is accelerating, and the domestic supply expectation is sufficient, which puts pressure on the price [26][27]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats are running weakly. The palm oil production recovery is lower than expected, but inventory accumulation may limit the upside. The arrival of Australian rapeseed eases the supply shortage expectation of rapeseed oil [3][28]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. The international sugar price is affected by the production and export situation of Brazil and India, while the domestic supply pressure is increasing seasonally [29]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. The domestic supply is relatively sufficient, and the downstream demand and macro - sentiment support the price, but the upside space may be limited [30]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The 02 contract of container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate, and the 04 contract may decline further. The market is affected by factors such as the supply - demand relationship and the potential resumption of shipping in the Red Sea [31].

Core Viewpoint - Oppenheimer Asset Management's John Stoltzfus predicts an 18% increase in the S&P 500 index next year, making him the most optimistic analyst tracked by Bloomberg for the third consecutive year [1][3] - Stoltzfus expects the index to reach around 8100 points by the end of 2026, supported by strong economic growth and loose monetary policy [1][3] Market Sentiment - The U.S. stock market is experiencing its third consecutive year of double-digit gains, driven by investor confidence that the Federal Reserve will continue to lower interest rates despite resilient economic growth [1][3] - Concerns regarding global trade wars and potential tech bubbles have not persisted for long in the market [1][3] Asset Management Outlook - A Bloomberg informal survey indicates that over three-quarters of asset managers are positioning for a risk-on market environment in 2026 [2][4] - Stoltzfus favors cyclical sectors closely tied to economic performance over safer defensive sectors, with preferred sectors including information technology, communication services, industrials, financials, and consumer discretionary [2][4] Analyst Consensus - Other financial institutions, including Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, and Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets, also predict that U.S. stock market gains will exceed 10% [1][3]

12月08日：黄金市场上周：国际现货黄金震荡收跌，相对于前周振幅明显收窄，多头动力减弱，但目前 仍运行在5-10周均线上方，布林带保持向上发展，基本面也未有持续且较大的利空因素，故此，前景 上，仍具有看涨新高预期。 具体走势上，金价自周初开于4221.37美元/盎司，先行录得当周高点4264.57美元，之后遇阻回撤，于周 二录得当周低点4163.81美元，据此开始连续不断冲高回落和触底回升走盘，延续至周五触及周高点附 近后，再度回撤走低，最终收于4194.36美元，周振幅100.76美元，收跌27.01美元，跌幅0.64%。 周线级别，金价在近几周震荡调整，低点不断上移的同时，持续受到10周均线支撑，而在前周强势反弹 走强拉升，多头占据优势，布林带向上延伸，看涨前景良好，虽然上周多头动力虽有减弱，但未跌至5- 10周均线下方，故此在此之上，仍可继续看涨入场，等待再度上探历史高点附近或更高位置。 影响上，虽然周内受到12月降息预期的提振，以及部分数据的疲软支撑，而展现看涨预期，但在技术阻 力压制之下，以及在等待众多数据公布指引政策前景之前的等待和观望，而不断调整波动； 虽然周五美国9月核心PCE物价指数年率显示 ...

张尧浠：通胀减弱就业担忧、金价调整仍不改看涨前景 日内无重点关注数据及事件，走势将延续上周行情震荡波动为主。 本周将重点关注周四凌晨（12月11日）公布的利率决议，市场倾向于认为美联储将再次下调政策利率25个基点。金价将会进行短线的跳水行情，但能否触 底回升，还得看之后的点阵图与新闻发布会的措辞是否能给出更清晰、可持续的政策逻辑。如鸽派降息，暗示2026年降息前景良好，金价将会再度反弹走 强，反之将会震荡调整再走回调。 但个人认为，不管美联储决议之后如何表达，短期也难以走出趋势，因为美联储利率决议后，后续还有PPI通胀数据，美国11月失业率非农数据，以及美 国11月CPI通胀数据等数据。市场将等待这些数据对于前景表述的验证和指引而波幅有限。 所以，尽管短期面临美联储政策不确定性、国债市场情绪平稳等因素的制约，可能出现技术性回调的延续性走盘； 黄金市场上周：国际现货黄金震荡收跌，相对于前周振幅明显收窄，多头动力减弱，但目前仍运行在5-10周均线上方，布林带保持向上发展，基本面也未 有持续且较大的利空因素，故此，前景上，仍具有看涨新高预期。 具体走势上，金价自周初开于4221.37美元/盎司，先行录得当周高点42 ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 7 Dec 2025 中国策略 China Strategy 政策窗口临近，市场反弹动能有望延续 Policy Window Approaching, Market Rebound Momentum Likely to Continue 周林泓 Amber Zhou 李加惠 Jiahui Li, CFA [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 上周我们认为市场整固后有望延续反弹，科技修复仍有空间。本周港股与 A 股市场缩量震荡后于周五拉升，市场开 始关注中国政策窗口；有色金属受国际金属价格大涨带动表现最强，科技中以算力为代表的相关个股也表现相对 活跃。 下周市场将面临三大关键事件：政治局会议、中央经济工作会议以及美联储议息会议，市场波动可能加大。周五 市场已开始提前交易政治局会议释放宽松货币政策与积极财政政策信号的预期。同时，市场对政策支持长期资金 入市的预期进一步升温，周五金管总局正式下 ...

当地时间12月2日，美国总统特朗普表示，将于明年初宣布美联储主席人选。尽管特朗普尚未正式确认 提名人选，但在他的暗示下，一个名字脱颖而出并成为了压倒性的热门人选：白宫国家经济委员会主任 凯文·哈塞特。 预测市场平台"Kalshi"3日预测，哈塞特获得提名的概率为86%，前美联储理事沃什和现美联储理事鲍曼 的概率分别为6%和4%。 消息传出后，美元汇率短暂下跌。对于哈塞特接任美联储主席，外界反应两极，有人批评哈塞特是"特 朗普傀儡"，也有支持者认为"再没有比他更合适的人选了"。 据知情人士透露，美财政部正在通过与主要华尔街银行、资产管理巨头及美债市场其他大企业的高管一 对一交流，征求对哈塞特及其他候选人的反馈。市场参与者普遍担忧哈塞特推动无差别降息，宽松货币 政策与高通胀叠加，可能引发长期美国国债抛售潮。 哈塞特是谁？有何背景？ 据美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）等媒体报道，现年63岁的哈塞特于1962年出生在美国马萨诸塞州格林 菲尔德，本科就读于斯沃斯莫尔学院，获得经济学学士学位，随后进入宾夕法尼亚大学，先后获得经济 学硕士和博士学位。 在职业生涯的早期，哈塞特曾在美联储研究与统计司担任经济学家，这段经历让他积累 ...

菲律宾11月通胀率降至1.5% 中新社马尼拉12月5日电 (记者 张兴龙)菲律宾国家统计局5日公布数据显示，该国11月通胀率降至 1.5%，较10月下降0.2个百分点，为今年8月以来首次回落。 数据显示，今年前11个月，菲律宾平均通胀率为1.6%，低于政府设定的2%至4%年度目标区间下限。 菲律宾11月通胀回落主要受食品和非酒精饮料价格涨幅放缓所带动。数据显示，菲11月食品和非酒精饮 料价格同比涨幅由10月的0.5%降至0.1%。此外，酒类和烟草、家具和家用设备以及个人护理等类别商 品价格涨幅均有所回落，也进一步减轻了整体物价上行压力。 菲律宾媒体分析认为，温和的通胀水平为菲律宾中央银行继续实施宽松货币政策提供了空间。由于菲第 三季度经济增速低于官方与市场预期，外界普遍预计央行有望在本月的政策会议上再次宣布降息。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：付健青 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 食品方面，菲律宾11月食 ...