Report Summary 1. Report Type and Date - Report type: Stock Index Daily Review [1] - Date: August 14, 2025 [2] 2. Researchers - Nie Jiayi (Stock Index), contact: 021 - 60635735, email: niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F03124070 [3] - He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), contact: 18665641296, email: hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3008762 [3] - Huang Wenxin (Macro Treasury Bonds and Shipping), contact: 021 - 60635739, email: huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3051589 [3] 3. Market Review and Outlook 3.1 Market Review - On August 13, the Wind All - A Index oscillated upward after the opening, closing up 1.02%, but over 3000 stocks declined. Among index spot, the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed up 0.79%, 0.21%, 1.40%, and 1.45% respectively, with small - and medium - cap stocks performing better. Index futures outperformed spot, with the IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts closing up 0.96%, 0.333%, 1.72%, and 1.72% respectively (calculated based on the previous trading day's closing price) [6] 3.2 Market Outlook - **External Market**: In the US, the unadjusted CPI in July was 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.8% and the same as the previous value; the month - on - month was 0.2%, in line with expectations and lower than the previous 0.3%. The core CPI annual rate in July was 3.1%, higher than the expected 3% and the previous 2.9%, and the month - on - month was 0.3%, in line with expectations and higher than the previous 0.2%. The market currently expects a 95% probability of the Fed cutting interest rates at the September meeting [8] - **Domestic Market**: The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration recently formulated the Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy on Personal Consumption Loans. State - owned banks have followed up and announced the fiscal interest subsidy work on personal consumption loans, boosting the sentiment of the consumer sector. A - share trading volume increased again to 2.18 trillion yuan today, and the SSE Composite Index broke through the high point in October last year. Among sectors, communication, non - ferrous metals, and electronics led the gains, while the pharmaceutical and military sectors continued to rise after adjustments [8] - **Investment Suggestion**: The current market sentiment remains strong, and the index still has upward momentum. It is necessary to continue to monitor changes in trading volume and the disclosure of corporate semi - annual reports. Cautious investors can consider reducing positions to take profits and then adding positions after the SSE Composite Index stabilizes. In terms of market style, the dumbbell strategy remains unchanged, and the SSE 50 with stable earnings and the CSI 1000 with higher earnings recovery elasticity may perform relatively better [9] 4. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the performance of domestic major indexes, market style performance, industry sector performance (Shenwan Primary Index), trading volume of the Wind All - A Index, trading volume of stock index spot, trading volume and open interest of stock index futures, basis trend of main contracts, inter - period spread trend, statistics of major ETF fund shares, and statistics of major ETF trading volume. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][13][14] 5. Industry News - The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration recently formulated the Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy on Personal Consumption Loans. After the news was released, state - owned banks followed up. On August 12, Agricultural Bank of China and Postal Savings Bank of China were the first to respond, announcing that they would implement interest subsidies on eligible personal consumption loans from September 1, 2025, in accordance with market - oriented and legal principles [30]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that cryptocurrency-related stocks in the Hong Kong market experienced significant gains, driven by a surge in Bitcoin prices reaching a new historical high of $124,474, influenced by expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and favorable financial reforms in the U.S. [1][2][3] Group 2 - Blueport Interactive saw a rise of 14.49%, with a latest price of $0.790 and a total market capitalization of 292 million [2][3] - New Fire Technology Holdings increased by 7.69%, with a latest price of $7.000 and a total market capitalization of 4.102 billion [2][3] - OK Blockchain Chain rose by 3.45%, with a latest price of $0.600 and a total market capitalization of 3.222 billion [2][3] - Boya Interactive experienced a gain of 2.71%, with a latest price of $9.100 and a total market capitalization of 6.47 billion [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin reached a historic high of $124,002.49, driven by expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and favorable financial reforms announced in the U.S. [1] Group 1 - The price of Bitcoin increased by 0.9% during the Asian morning session, surpassing its previous peak set in July [1] - Analysts attribute the surge in Bitcoin's price to the increasing certainty of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, ongoing institutional buying, and the Trump administration's easing of regulations on cryptocurrency investments [1] - Technical analysis suggests that if Bitcoin effectively breaks through the $125,000 level, it could potentially rise to $150,000 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The release of the US July CPI data last night is generally favorable for the Fed to implement further easing policies. With the weakening of US economic data and the easing of inflation, the Fed's implementation of further loose monetary policy is certain. It is recommended to buy precious metals on dips, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold being 766 - 787 yuan/gram and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver being 9075 - 9520 yuan/kilogram [2][4]. Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold (Au) fell 0.11% to 776.28 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver (Ag) rose 0.39% to 9205.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold rose 0.11% to 3402.60 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver fell 0.11% to 37.96 US dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.29%, and the US dollar index was reported at 98.05 [2]. - The closing prices and changes of various precious metal varieties and related indicators are presented in detailed tables, including Au(T + D), London Gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, etc. For example, Au(T + D) closed at 773.17 yuan/gram, down 2.69 yuan or - 0.35% from the previous trading day [5]. US CPI Data Analysis - The US July CPI year - on - year value was 2.7%, lower than the expected 2.8% and in line with the previous value, and the month - on - month value was 0.2%, in line with expectations and lower than the previous value of 0.3%. The core CPI year - on - year value was 3.1%, higher than the expected 3% and the previous value of 2.9%, and the month - on - month value was 0.3%, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 0.2% [2]. - The lower - than - expected overall CPI in July was due to the decline in oil prices, and the higher - than - expected core CPI was due to the "sudden" increase in used - car inflation compared to the previous month, along with the impact of imported inflation on household prices. In terms of overall CPI, the energy - related CPI year - on - year value decreased by 1.6%, and the month - on - month value decreased by 1.1%, mainly driven by the decline in oil prices. In terms of core inflation, the housing inflation with a high proportion continued to decline slowly, and the used - car price index year - on - year value in July was 4.8%, significantly higher than the previous value of 2.8%, and the month - on - month value rose from - 0.7% in June to + 0.5%, which was the main contributor to the higher - than - expected core CPI year - on - year value [3]. Market Outlook and Strategy - With the weakening of US economic data and the easing of inflation, the Fed's implementation of further loose monetary policy is certain. It is recommended to buy precious metals on dips, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold being 766 - 787 yuan/gram and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver being 9075 - 9520 yuan/kilogram [4]. Data Graphs and Analysis - Multiple graphs are presented, including the relationship between COMEX gold price and the US dollar index, the relationship between COMEX gold price and real interest rate, the price and volume relationship of Shanghai Gold and Shanghai Silver, the near - far month structure of COMEX gold and silver, the net long positions of COMEX gold and silver management funds, the total holdings of gold and silver ETFs, and the internal and external price differences of gold and silver [12][22][41].

华尔街对美国总统特朗普提名其经济顾问斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）进入美联储的计划反应平淡。 上周这一消息公布后，市场即时反应温和，但投资者现在必须将另一个与白宫立场一致的声音纳入考量 ——他将在美联储内部推动降息和放松监管。 作为白宫经济顾问委员会主席，米兰将填补美联储理事阿德瑞娜·库格勒（Adriana Kugler）的剩余任 期。库格勒意外辞职于上周五生效，她2023年9月加入美联储理事会，任期原定于1月底结束。 参议院可能不会在美联储9月政策会议前就米兰的提名进行投票。因此，对市场而言，真正的意义在于9 月之后的影响。 "这可能是一系列连锁反应的第一块多米诺骨牌，最终将导致政策宽松、通胀高于目标、美元走弱，"高 收益经济学（High Yield Economics）创始人丹尼尔·奥尔特曼（Daniel Altman）在报告中写道。 米兰多次呼吁美元走弱。去年11月，他为哈德逊湾资本（Hudson Bay Capital）撰写的一篇41页国际贸 易论文中称，"经济失衡的根源在于美元持续高估，阻碍了国际贸易平衡……" 短期来看，华尔街分析师认为美联储不会出现重大政策转向。 "米兰的任命短期内对 ...

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is currently trading at around 0.65 against the US dollar (USD), showing a slight decline of 0.04% from the previous close of 0.6524 [1] - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut to 4.00% [1] - Market sentiment is influenced by the anticipated monetary policy changes in the US, particularly with the Trump administration initiating the selection process for the Federal Reserve Chair, which has led to expectations of continued accommodative monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The AUD/USD has resistance levels at 0.6625 (year-to-date high on July 24) and 0.6687 (November 2024 high), with a key psychological level at 0.7000 [2] - Support levels for the AUD/USD are found at 0.6418 (August low), 0.6390 (200-day simple moving average), and 0.6372 (June low) [2] - Technical indicators show a slight downward bias with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 45 and the Average Directional Index (ADX) at 19, indicating a lack of clear trend momentum [2]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The short-term trend of gold prices will be driven by trade tensions, interest rate cut expectations, and geopolitical risks [1] - Trump's tariff policy may lead to further adjustments in global supply chains, increasing inflation expectations and supporting gold prices [1] - The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is nearly certain, which will continue to suppress the dollar and bond yields, creating a favorable environment for gold prices [1] Group 2: Short-term Gold Trading Strategy - The four-hour analysis indicates that gold has the potential to rise towards the 3410-3420 range [3] - The MACD indicator has completed an adjustment below the zero line, and a bullish crossover is expected to trigger a significant price increase [3] - The trading strategy suggests focusing on short positions during rebounds and long positions during pullbacks, with key resistance at 3410-3420 and support at 3380-3370 [3] Group 3: Silver Market Analysis - Silver prices are supported by a dovish Federal Reserve and heightened geopolitical tensions, breaking above the short-term resistance of $37.87 [5] - If silver can maintain levels above $37.87, it may challenge the long-term resistance at $39.53, which is a 14-year high [5] - The trading strategy recommends buying on pullbacks at $38.00 with a stop loss at $37.80 and a target of $38.50, while aiming for $39.00 on a breakout [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This month, precious metal prices showed overall strength. COMEX gold prices rose 3.29% to $3,482.7 per ounce, and SHFE gold prices rose 1.84% to 787.8 yuan per gram. COMEX silver prices rose 3.63% to $38.53 per ounce, and SHFE silver prices rose 2.63% to 9,278 yuan per kilogram [11]. - The confirmation of the new voting member of the Fed has further impacted its monetary policy independence. Trump appointed Stephen Milan as a Fed governor, and the probability of current Fed governor Waller becoming the new Fed chair has increased. Trump has criticized Powell for not cutting interest rates [11]. - Economic data indicates a weakening US economy. The non - farm payroll data in July was significantly lower than expected, and economic data in August has also turned weak. After the release of non - farm data, Fed voting members' monetary policy stances have turned dovish [11]. - The market has increased its expectations for the Fed's subsequent loose monetary policy. It is recommended to buy on dips in precious metal strategies. The reference operating range for SHFE gold is 777 - 801 yuan per gram, and for SHFE silver is 9,081 - 9,520 yuan per kilogram [11]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Price Performance**: COMEX gold prices rose 3.29% to $3,482.7 per ounce, SHFE gold prices rose 1.84% to 787.8 yuan per gram. COMEX silver prices rose 3.63% to $38.53 per ounce, SHFE silver prices rose 2.63% to 9,278 yuan per kilogram [11]. - **Fed Independence**: Trump's appointment of Milan and the potential appointment of Waller have affected the Fed's independence, increasing pressure for interest rate cuts [11]. - **Economic Data**: US non - farm payroll data in July was weak, and economic data in August has also deteriorated. Fed voting members have turned dovish [11]. - **Market Expectations**: The market expects the Fed to implement further loose monetary policies. Precious metal strategies suggest buying on dips, with reference ranges for SHFE gold at 777 - 801 yuan per gram and SHFE silver at 9,081 - 9,520 yuan per kilogram [11]. 3.2 Market Review - **Price and Index**: The US dollar index and related precious metal prices are presented in graphs. Precious metal prices showed overall strength this month, with gold and silver prices rising [29]. - **Position Performance**: Gold positions were strong, with COMEX gold total positions rising 1.74% to 445,300 lots and SHFE gold total positions rising 12.87% to 441,900 lots. Silver positions were weaker, with COMEX silver total positions rising 4.13% to 170,300 lots and SHFE silver total positions falling 18.06% to 784,200 lots [31][34]. - **Net Long Positions**: As of July 29, COMEX gold management fund net long positions decreased by 25,678 lots to 134,300 lots, and COMEX silver management fund net positions decreased by 990 lots to 43,000 lots [36]. - **ETF Positions**: Gold and silver ETF total positions continued to rise, with gold ETF total positions at 2,167.1 tons and silver ETF total positions at 27,434.8 tons as of August 7 [39]. 3.3 Interest Rates and Liquidity - **Yield Curve**: Graphs show the US 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury yield spreads and short - term Treasury yields [50]. - **Inflation Expectations**: Graphs present the US federal funds rate, overnight reverse repurchase rate, 10 - year nominal and real interest rates, and inflation expectations [52]. - **Fed Balance Sheet**: The Fed's balance sheet monthly changes are detailed, and this month, the Treasury TGA account balance increased, deposit reserve scale decreased, and US dollar liquidity tightened [54][57]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - **CPI & PCE**: US CPI in June was 2.7% year - on - year, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value. Core CPI was 2.9% year - on - year, lower than expected [62]. - **Employment**: The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending August 2 was 226,000, higher than expected [65]. - **PMI & PPI**: US ISM manufacturing PMI in July was 48, below the boom - bust line and lower than expected. ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, also lower than expected [68]. - **New Home Data**: US new home starts in June were 1.321 million units, higher than expected, and building permits were 1.397 million units, also higher than expected [71]. 3.5 Precious Metal Spreads - **Base Spreads**: Graphs show gold and silver TD - SHFE base spreads, as well as gold and silver internal and external spreads [74][76][79]. 3.6 Precious Metal Inventories - **Silver Inventories**: Graphs show silver inventories from various sources, including Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, COMEX, and LBMA [87][89][90]. - **Gold Inventories**: Graphs show COMEX and LBMA gold inventories [91].

Group 1 - The core event driving the gold market was the release of the July non-farm employment data, which showed a significant decline in job creation and an increase in the unemployment rate, leading to a rebound in gold prices [1] - The July non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs, far below the market expectation of 110,000, and previous months' job numbers were revised down by a total of 258,000 [1] - Following the data release, the US dollar index fell sharply by 1.38%, increasing investor concerns about the US economic outlook and boosting safe-haven demand for gold [1] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding the selection of the new Federal Reserve Chair has added volatility to the market, with President Trump indicating a preference for a more dovish monetary policy, which could support gold prices [2] - The potential for a shift towards looser monetary policy is expected to enhance market expectations for increased money supply and rising inflation, further supporting gold [2] Group 3 - The weak employment data and significant revisions to previous figures have reinforced expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, which is a positive factor for gold prices [3] - The implementation of tiered tariffs in the US is contributing to inflationary pressures, with the import price index rising by 0.7% in June, particularly affecting tariff-sensitive goods [3] Group 4 - Technical analysis indicates that after a significant rebound on August 1, gold prices have returned to a consolidation range, with short-term support from moving averages [4] - The increase in non-commercial net long positions in COMEX gold futures by only 32,000 contracts suggests that bullish momentum needs to build further [4] Group 5 - The strategic value of gold as an asset has significantly increased in the current macroeconomic environment, with a target price of $3,600 per ounce maintained for the next 12 months [6] - The accumulation of supportive factors for the gold market is evident amid weak US economic data, expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy, and ongoing global trade tensions [6]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have been rising due to increasing economic pressures in the U.S. and dovish comments from the Federal Reserve, with COMEX gold futures reaching a record high of $3,534.10 [1] Group 1: Economic Factors - The COMEX gold futures price touched $3,483 during intraday trading and closed at $3,482.70, marking a 1.44% increase [1] - Analysts from ANZ Bank noted that the appointment of Milan, a designer of Trump's tariff policies, to the Federal Reserve Board is perceived as a signal for a more dovish monetary policy [1] - Recent speeches from Federal Reserve officials have leaned towards dovishness, enhancing market expectations for future monetary easing [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - There is an increasing expectation for further monetary easing from the Federal Reserve, supported by weak non-farm payroll and economic data, which may lead to a rebound in gold prices [1] - The potential for further increases in gold prices remains, driven by ongoing economic concerns and expectations of interest rate cuts [1]