证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-05-13 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《汇率压力降低放行货币政策，结构 性投资机会将再次展开》 - 2025.05.09 宏观研究 央行再提利率风险，短期长端利率波动或有所加大 投资要点 （1）适度宽松货币政策总基调不变，从择机调整到灵活把握。 本次报告在货币政策思路方面延续中央经济工作会议和"425"中共 中央政治局会议精神，坚持适度宽松货币政策的基调，但政策节奏或 有所调整，操作节奏或有变化，表述从"择机调整优化政策力度和节 奏"，调整为"灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏"，或意味着在外部环 境无显著变化的情况下，短期或更关注存量货币政策落地，增量货币 政策出台概率有所降低。 （2）央行再提利率风险，短期长端利率或存在回调风险。央行 在专栏 4 特别强调了利率风险问题，关注短期长期国债利率或存在回 调的风险。此外，本次报告删除了资金空转表述， ...

Core Viewpoint - The press conference held by the State Council's Information Office emphasized a comprehensive financial policy package aimed at stabilizing market expectations and addressing the complex domestic and international economic landscape [1] Monetary Policy Measures - The central bank announced ten monetary policy measures, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [2] - The policy interest rate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate decreasing from 1.5% to 1.4%, expected to lead to a similar decline in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [2] - Structural adjustments included a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various special tool interest rates to 1.5% and an increase in the re-lending quota for technological innovation by 300 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan [2] Support for Key Sectors - The policy aims to enhance support for agriculture and small enterprises by increasing the re-lending quota by 300 billion yuan, coupled with interest rate reductions to stimulate demand [3] - The personal housing provident fund loan interest rate was reduced by 0.25 percentage points, lowering the first home loan rate from 2.85% to 2.6%, which is expected to stabilize the real estate market [3] Market Impact - The measures are expected to optimize liquidity and funding costs, enhancing financial support for market stability and reducing the debt burden for enterprises and residents [4] - The emphasis on "counter-cyclical adjustment" and "moderately loose monetary policy" is likely to boost market confidence and stabilize expectations for economic recovery [4][5] Structural Support and Capital Market - The targeted support for sectors such as technological innovation and inclusive finance is anticipated to create market hotspots and improve confidence in the capital market [5] - The capital market is expected to maintain active trading, with the Shanghai Composite Index stabilizing around 3300 points, potentially attracting new capital into the market [6]

国家统计局5月10日发布数据显示，4月份，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比由上月下降0.4%转为上涨 0.1%，同比下降0.1%，降幅与上月相同。 【4月CPI环比由降转涨，核心CPI涨幅稳定】 核心CPI环比由平转涨，上涨0.2%；同比上涨0.5%，涨幅保持稳定。工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI） 环比下降0.4%，降幅与上月相同，同比下降2.7%，降幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点。 消费相关指数方面，2025年5月12日早盘，恒生消费指数(HSCGSI)强势上涨1.06%，成分股泉峰控股上 涨6.59%，茶百道上涨4.84%，锅圈上涨4.51%，创科实业，华住集团-S等个股跟涨。 相关ETF方面，5月12日早盘，恒生消费ETF(159699)高开逾1%，流动性方面，截至5月9日，恒生消费 ETF近1月日均成交1.82亿元，居可比基金第一。据显示，杠杆资金持续布局中。恒生消费ETF连续3天 获杠杆资金净买入，最高单日获得715.09万元净买入，最新融资余额达1475.52万元。 | 1.003 +0.008 +0.80% | | | | 恒生消费ETF | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China has established a service consumption and elderly care relending program with a total quota of 500 billion yuan, aimed at boosting consumption demand and providing financial support to the elderly care industry [1] - The new relending policy is expected to stimulate the service consumption and elderly care market, promoting consumption upgrades and meeting public demand [1] - The policy will be executed until the end of 2027 and will include 26 national financial institutions as eligible recipients [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China has lowered the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points and reduced the personal housing provident fund loan rate by 0.25 percentage points, which is expected to decrease the cost of home purchases [2] - The five-year housing provident fund interest rate has been reduced from 2.85% to 2.6%, resulting in a monthly payment reduction of 133 yuan for a million yuan mortgage, saving approximately 48,000 yuan in total interest [2] - The central bank's actions are seen as key measures to stabilize the real estate market and support high-quality economic development [2] Group 3 - The first quarter monetary policy execution report indicates that a moderately loose monetary policy is being implemented to support consumption as a key point for expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth [3] - The report emphasizes the need to promote a reasonable recovery of prices by balancing supply and demand, with a focus on expanding effective demand [3] - The report also highlights the importance of increasing support for the real economy to effectively respond to external shocks and stabilize foreign trade [3] Group 4 - The central bank is guiding commercial banks to lower deposit rates through a self-discipline mechanism, which is expected to alleviate the pressure of narrowing interest margins for banks [4] - It is anticipated that deposit rates will be reduced by an average of about 0.1 percentage points, which will help stabilize growth and mitigate risks [4] Group 5 - Private banks are facing challenges such as narrowing net interest margins and asset quality pressure, leading to a slowdown in growth and adjustments in asset-liability structures [5] - Some private banks are enhancing their self-operated channels to cope with market competition, while growth on the asset side remains relatively constrained [5] Group 6 - The competition among the top four city commercial banks is intensifying, with Jiangsu Bank and Ningbo Bank showing significant growth in key indicators [6] - Both banks are experiencing rapid growth in corporate loans and financial investments, which are driving asset expansion [6] - Despite not surpassing Beijing Bank in asset scale, Jiangsu Bank and Ningbo Bank have stronger profitability and higher market valuations [6] Group 7 - The economic and financial landscape in China is undergoing significant changes, with Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces emerging as new battlegrounds for city commercial banks [7] Group 8 - Shunde Rural Commercial Bank is accelerating its expansion by planning to integrate multiple village and town banks, aiming to optimize financial resource allocation [8] - The bank's integration efforts are in line with policy requirements for small and medium-sized bank reforms and aim to enhance its financial layout in the Greater Bay Area [8] Group 9 - CITIC Bank and China Merchants Bank are planning to establish financial asset investment companies (AIC) to expand their business boundaries and enhance financial services for innovative enterprises [9] - The expansion of AIC trials is expected to reshape the competitive landscape of the industry and increase the coverage and specialization of services for innovative companies [9] Group 10 - The Financial Regulatory Bureau is promoting a government-backed financing guarantee system for small and micro enterprises, with guarantee fees not exceeding 1%, significantly lower than commercial guarantee levels [10] Group 11 - In the first quarter, 85 property insurance companies reported a total net profit exceeding 25.6 billion yuan, driven by improvements in auto insurance business and the gradual release of investment income from the previous year [11] Group 12 - Many securities firms have been frequently updating reports on the progress of bank listing guidance since April, with 15 banks currently in the listing guidance registration stage [12] - These banks face urgent capital replenishment needs, asset confirmation challenges, and the need to optimize their equity structures [12] Group 13 - The Guangdong Provincial Association plans to establish a provincial-level rural commercial bank to optimize management systems and enhance market-oriented and professional levels [13] - This reform aims to better serve Guangdong's strategic development goals and follows a trend of provincial-level rural credit union reforms across multiple provinces [13]

6、中国证监会印发2025年度立法工作计划，提到立法的重心是加强资本市场重点领域监管，维护市场 平稳健康发展，切实保护广大中小投资者合法权益。 智通财经5月12日早间新闻精选 1、中美经贸高层会谈5月10日至11日在瑞士日内瓦举行。中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰当 地时间11日晚在出席中方代表团举行的新闻发布会时表示，此次中美经贸高层会谈坦诚、深入、具有建 设性，达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展。双方一致同意建立中美经贸磋商机制。中美双方将尽快敲定 相关细节，并将于5月12日发布会谈达成的联合声明。 2、国务院总理李强9日主持召开国务院常务会议，会议指出，要支持自贸试验区对标国际高标准经贸规 则，进一步加大制度创新力度，在发展服务贸易、便利数据跨境流动等方面先行先试，开展差异化探 索。 3、国家统计局数据显示，2025年4月份，全国居民消费价格同比下降0.1%。4月份，全国工业生产者出 厂价格同比下降2.7%，环比下降0.4%；工业生产者购进价格同比下降2.7%，环比下降0.6%。 4、央行9日印发《关于设立服务消费与养老再贷款有关事宜的通知》，提出设立服务消费与养老再贷 款，额度5000亿元，激励引导 ...

宏观新闻 央行将降准 中国人民银行5月7日宣布，自5月15日起，下调金融机构存款准备金率0.5个百分点(不含已执行5%存款 准备金率的金融机构)，下调汽车金融公司和金融租赁公司存款准备金率5个百分点。 同日，为实施好适度宽松的货币政策，加力支持实体经济，从2025年5月8日起，公开市场7天期逆回购 操作利率由此前的1.50%调整为1.40%。公开市场14天期逆回购和临时正、逆回购的操作利率继续在公 开市场7天期逆回购操作利率上加减点确定，加减点幅度保持不变。 央行发布最新货政报告 5月9日，央行官网发布《2025年第一季度中国货币政策执行报告》(以下简称《报告》)。《报告》通过 多篇专栏从不同角度体现出宏观政策思路的转变，明确指出提振消费是当前扩内需稳增长的关键点；对 比中美日政府债务情况，中国政府债务扩张仍有可持续性；促进物价合理回升，需要推动经济供需平 衡，关键在于扩大有效需求。《报告》还指出要加强债券市场建设。 在下一阶段政策取向上，《报告》表示，实施好适度宽松的货币政策。根据国内外经济金融形势和金融 市场运行情况，灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏，保持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长 同经济增长 ...

报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 12 日 | 张书铭 | 021-63325888*5152 | | --- | --- | | 17 | zhangshuming@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517080001 | | 张志鹏 | zhangzhipeng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522020002 | | 段怡芊 | duanyiqian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524010001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BVI649 | | 薛俊 | 021-63325888*6005 | | | xuejun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515100002 | | 物来顺应：——策略周报 0505 | 2025-05-06 | | --- | --- | | 以稳为主：——策略周报 0428 | 2025-04-28 | | 缺乏稳定一致预期：——策略周报 0421 | 2025-04-20 | | 市场或仍将保持高波动：——策略周报 ...

央视网消息：中国人民银行近期部署一系列综合性系统性的增量政策，金融部门宣布一揽子政策打出重磅"组合拳"，释放稳市 场稳预期强信号，引起国际舆论广泛关注。 英国路透社：进一步激发市场活力 文章称，中国将指导金融机构加大对消费、外贸、科技创新和小微企业的支持。这意味着，在全球经济形势复杂多变的背景 下，中国政府一方面看重"稳市场稳预期"，另一方面，重视推动科技创新与产业升级，培育新的增长动能。事实证明，外部压力不 会阻碍中国发展，反而会加速其自主创新步伐、推动经济高质量发展。 《巴基斯坦观察家报》：展现灵活性与战略定力 《日本经济新闻》: 积极应对 稳中有进 文章指出，一揽子金融政策是针对全球经济不确定性加剧所做的积极应对，体现了中国政府在应对外部压力时的果断与智慧。 这一系列举措表明，中国坚定推进稳增长政策，确保经济平稳运行。多家国际金融研究机构研究认为，中国适度宽松政策具有"稳 中有进"的特点，预期将会带来积极影响，能够有效支撑国内经济增长。 新加坡亚洲新闻台：培育新的增长动能 中国确认保持适度宽松的货币政策立场，根据国内外经济形势，灵活调整政策实施的力度与节奏，采用多种政策工具保持流动 性充裕，通过定向政策 ...

人民银行海南省分行引导信贷资源向重点领域、薄弱环节倾斜，金融助力经济高质量发展力度进一 步加大。 金融服务实体经济成效持续提升 一季度海南本外币各项贷款余额超1.3万亿元 海南日报海口5月9日讯(海南日报全媒体记者 王培琳)5月9日，人民银行海南省分行召开2025年第 二季度新闻发布会，海南日报全媒体记者从发布会上获悉，截至3月末，全省本外币各项贷款余额13014 亿元，比年初增加314亿元，同比多增60亿元，同比增长6.9%，增速高于上年同期0.7个百分点。 据介绍，人民银行海南省分行对标海南自贸港封关运作要求，扎实推进金融服务实体经济、自贸港 金融高水平开放等各项工作。加大力度落实适度宽松货币政策，金融服务实体经济成效持续提升。其 中，综合运用窗口指导、央行结构性货币政策工具等多种措施，指导银行业金融机构加大信贷投放，对 实体经济的信贷支持作用明显增强。 截至3月末，全省本外币各项贷款余额13014亿元;各项存款余额15093亿元，同比增长10.4%，增速 高于上年同期4个百分点，高于全国平均水平3.5个百分点。其中，住户存款余额8079亿元，同比增长 10.8%，增速高于上年同期0.7个百分点。 与此同 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Q1 2025 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report" emphasizes the need for increased support for the real economy, expansion of consumption, and effective responses to external shocks, indicating a shift in macroeconomic policy focus [1][2][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Support - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) maintains a supportive policy stance, implementing moderately loose monetary policies and optimizing specific policy operations to ensure ample liquidity and stability in the financial market [2][3]. - The cumulative effects of multiple interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions are becoming evident, leading to a generally relaxed social financing environment [2][3]. - The report highlights a commitment to continue implementing moderately loose monetary policies to align social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [3]. Group 2: Consumption and Economic Growth - The report underscores the importance of boosting consumption as a key driver for stabilizing growth, especially in light of weakening external demand [2][5]. - A new initiative for service consumption and elderly care loans has been introduced, aimed at enhancing financial support for sectors like accommodation, dining, and entertainment [6]. - The report indicates that the government's debt is supported by assets, with total government assets equivalent to 166% of GDP and total liabilities at 75% of GDP, suggesting a strong foundation for economic transformation and stability [6]. Group 3: Price Management and Supply-Demand Balance - The report stresses the need to promote reasonable price recovery by expanding effective demand, addressing both supply and demand pressures in the economy [7]. - Experts suggest a shift in price control strategies from preventing price gouging to preventing low-price dumping, advocating for quality-driven competition among enterprises [7].