| 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 | 2026/2/3 | 星期二 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | | | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 | IF当月 | IF下月 | IF下季 | IF隔季 | | | | | | | | 前两日收盘价 | 4710.00 | 4711.00 | 4699.80 | 4655.00 | 前日收盘价 | 4582.20 | 4577.40 | 4540.00 | 4491.80 | | | 涨跌 | -136.20 | -142.20 | -167.60 | -170.60 | 沪深300 | 涨跌幅 ...

【东方财富策略陈果市场下跌点评：这次调整并不担心，春季行情二波论，但这次调整也可能是未来真正巨震的 一个预演】 在前期市场最亢奋时，我们提示本轮春季行情会走成两波，目前市场走势验证中。 需要看到，本次A股跨年行情第一波的隐线其实还是跟着海外：去年底低点是担心联储不降息 /AI泡沫论（当时我 也指出市场过于悲观，是布局机会），这波是担心新联储主席缩表 。 年初市场的宽 【东方财富策略陈果市场下跌点评：这次调整并不担心，春季行情二波论，但这次调整也可能是未来真正巨震的 一个预演】 至于市场担心沃什缩表，我认为：1. 相信常识，既然特朗普要换鲍威尔不是要换上一个鹰派。 2.沃什上任后的联储决策和多年前沃什的观点不宜画等号。 3.市场对沃什的鹰派已做出反应，后续可以看下他的最新言论，例如后续国会听证会他的表态可能会给市场一颗 定心丸。 总体来说，我认为后续预期会收敛，不至于鸽到QE预期，也不至于太鹰。 市场稳住阵脚后，发现国内微观流动性基础仍在。 经历了第一波的回荡之后，春季行情第二波的躁动程度预计会降低，海外因素预计会降低，结构会比第一波更平 衡，也会有一些资金着眼三四月之后，开始布局内需，等待相关政策。 看得更长 ...

分析人士认为，节前风险偏好抬升的制约因素偏多，但本轮春季行情启动的核心驱动因素并未发生根本 性变化，春节后胜率提升，若市场调整或将成为新的布局窗口。短期市场大概率维持震荡，节后春季行 情有望延续。 A股市场调整 截至2月2日收盘，上证指数、深证成指、创业板指、科创综指、北证50指数分别下跌2.48%、2.69%、 2.46%、3.95%、2.03%。 大小盘股均出现调整，大盘股集中的上证50指数、沪深300指数分别下跌2.07%、2.13%，小微盘股集中 的中证1000指数、中证2000指数、万得微盘股指数分别下跌3.39%、2.41%、1.51%。 个股方面，个股多数下跌，整个A股市场上涨股票数为771只，44只股票涨停，4652只股票下跌，123只 股票跌停。 从盘面上看，特高压、白酒、培育钻石、智能电网等板块表现活跃，黄金珠宝、存储器、工业金属、磷 化工等板块领跌。申万一级行业中，仅有食品饮料、银行行业上涨，分别上涨1.11%、0.17%；其他行 业均下跌，有色金属、钢铁、基础化工行业跌幅居前，分别下跌7.62%、5.93%、5.69%，煤炭、石油石 化行业也均跌逾5%。 有色金属板块中，西部材料涨逾6 ...

大小盘股均出现调整，大盘股集中的上证50指数、沪深300指数分别下跌2.07%、2.13%，小微盘股集中 的中证1000指数、中证2000指数、万得微盘股指数分别下跌3.39%、2.41%、1.51%。 个股方面，个股多数下跌，整个A股市场上涨股票数为771只，44只股票涨停，4652只股票下跌，123只 股票跌停。 从盘面上看，特高压、白酒、培育钻石、智能电网等板块表现活跃，黄金珠宝、存储器、工业金属、磷 化工等板块领跌。申万一级行业中，仅有食品饮料、银行行业上涨，分别上涨1.11%、0.17%；其他行 业均下跌，有色金属、钢铁、基础化工行业跌幅居前，分别下跌7.62%、5.93%、5.69%，煤炭、石油石 化行业也均跌逾5%。 有色金属板块中，西部材料涨逾6%，永杰新材涨逾5%，翔鹭钨业、宁波富邦均涨逾3%，晓程科技跌逾 18%，铜陵有色、锌业股份、白银有色、恒邦股份等多股跌停，其中铜陵有色、锌业股份、白银有色等 多只股票跌停板上均有大额封单。消息面上，现货黄金、现货白银价格大跌。 对于A股市场调整的原因，安爵资产董事长刘岩表示，2月2日A股整体走低是外部市场冲击、内部收益 兑现和节前资金避险三重逻辑的共 ...

A04·资管时代 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that after a period of volatility, the market is expected to regain momentum in February, supported by a decrease in the volatility index from a peak of 102 to around 32, which is historically low [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on two main investment themes: technology growth and cyclical recovery, as funds are likely to rotate towards underperforming sectors [3][4] Investment Themes - **Technology Growth**: The AI industry is experiencing significant positive changes, with expectations for OAI listings and advancements in storage, CPU, and packaging sectors. The report highlights the importance of monitoring policy catalysts and industry developments, particularly in emerging sectors like aerospace, new materials, and quantum technology [6][6] - **Cyclical Recovery**: The report suggests that sectors such as chemicals, real estate, and core consumer assets are expected to see a rebound as market sentiment improves. The report notes that these sectors are currently at low points in their economic cycles, with potential for recovery as institutional positions are historically low [6][6] Recommended Stocks - **Jingsheng Electromechanical (300316.SZ)**: The company is positioned to benefit from increasing demand in space and overseas photovoltaic equipment, with a market cap of 58.3 billion and projected EPS growth from 0.95 in 2026 to 1.17 in 2027 [7][7] - **Nuwai Co., Ltd. (603699.SH)**: As a leading industrial valve manufacturer, the company is expected to see growth driven by LNG and marine vessel demand, with a projected EPS increase from 2.51 in 2026 to 3.00 in 2027 [7][7] - **Longjing Environmental Protection (600388.SH)**: The company is focusing on green electricity and energy storage, with a projected EPS growth from 1.20 in 2026 to 1.37 in 2027 [7][7] - **Chip Microelectronics (688630.SH)**: The company anticipates significant profit growth, with EPS expected to rise from 4.18 in 2026 to 6.08 in 2027 [7][7] - **AVIC High-Tech (600862.SH)**: The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for aerospace materials, with projected EPS growth from 1.17 in 2026 to 1.29 in 2027 [7][7] - **Ping An Insurance (601318.SH)**: The company is projected to maintain strong growth in new business value (NBV), with EPS expected to rise from 8.59 in 2026 to 9.74 in 2027 [7][7] - **Rabbit Baby (002043.SZ)**: The company is expected to see steady growth in the decorative board industry, with projected EPS growth from 1.05 in 2026 to 1.15 in 2027 [7][7] - **Wanhua Chemical (600309.SH)**: The company is expected to benefit from improving MDI and TDI market conditions, with projected EPS growth from 5.13 in 2026 to 5.79 in 2027 [7][7] - **Tianfu Communication (300394.SZ)**: The company is positioned to benefit from the demand for optical modules, with projected EPS growth from 4.10 in 2026 to 5.38 in 2027 [7][7] - **Shaanxi Tourism (603402.SH)**: The company is expected to see growth driven by its core tourism operations, with projected EPS growth from 6.65 in 2026 to 7.61 in 2027 [7][7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the A-share market is primarily driven by external liquidity shocks and internal capital withdrawal, with a significant impact from the hawkish stance of the new Federal Reserve chairman [2]. Group 1: Market Decline Reasons - The core trigger for the market drop is the hawkish expectation of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction, leading to a global liquidity repricing [2]. - The A-share market, which has been largely liquidity-driven since the bull market began on September 24, 2024, is particularly sensitive to changes in policy expectations [2]. - Domestic factors, including reduced leverage by exchanges and significant ETF redemptions, have further suppressed market sentiment, with a record net redemption of 780 billion yuan in January [2]. Group 2: A-share Market Outlook - The current pricing of the A-share market reflects a certain bias against the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, with expectations that the new chairman will balance interest rate cuts with the realities of dollar liquidity [3]. - As the market approaches a reasonable valuation, regulatory goals for cooling the market will likely be achieved, leading to a potential shift towards more positive policy [3]. - Historical patterns suggest a strong likelihood of a spring rally between the Lunar New Year and the Two Sessions, with a historical probability of around 90% for market gains during this period [3]. - Defensive attributes are expected from undervalued domestic assets during periods of external volatility, as evidenced by the resilience of banking and food and beverage sectors [3]. - Following stabilization of market sentiment, there is potential for continued investment in AI technology and overseas manufacturing, alongside increased allocation to high-dividend sectors like banking and consumer goods to enhance portfolio resilience [3].

2月券商金股组合陆续揭晓。Wind数据显示，截至2月2日，共有196只标的入围金股组合。其中，阿里巴巴-W、腾讯控股、福斯特、中际旭创、紫金矿业 等机构关注度靠前，信息技术、工业、材料等行业集中获得券商认同。 近期市场出现短暂调整，机构普遍认为，目前并未面临政策转向、流动性实质性收紧等逻辑层面利空，支撑春季行情的核心逻辑也并未发生变化，短期调 整消化后，2月有望继续展开春季行情的下半场。 阿里巴巴-W获机构高度关注 从推荐机构数量来看，根据Wind统计，阿里巴巴-W同时获6家券商共同推荐，暂居第一。华源证券认为，阿里巴巴聚焦电商与云计算两大业务板块，电商 方向上通过千问打造新C端入口，同时淘宝闪购业务打开市场空间，云计算领域在AI云市场保持领先。 | 序号 | 证券简称 | 推荐次数 | Wind一级行业 | 推荐机构 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 阿里巴巴-W | 6 | 可选消费 | 光大证券,华源证券,兴业证券,国盛证券,申万宏源证券,国信证券 | | 2 | 腾讯控股 | 5 | 信息技术 | 光大证券,中国银河,国盛证券,国联民生,申万宏源证券 | ...

A股三大股指2月2日开盘涨跌互现。全天两市震荡走低，午后更是跌幅扩大。 从盘面上看，黄金、有色金属板块再现跌停潮，油气、煤炭、钢铁、化工等资源股全线下挫。特高压概 念股走强，白酒股逆势上涨。 至收盘，上证综指跌2.48%，报4015.75点；科创50指数跌3.88%，报1450.9点；深证成指跌2.69%，报 13824.35点；创业板指跌2.46%，报3264.11点。 Wind统计显示，两市及北交所共770只股票上涨，4647只股票下跌，平盘有54只股票。 短期面临回调压力，春季行情未完 中信建投认为，短期面临回调压力，春季行情未完。1月30日，由于国际贵金属价格剧烈波动和A股宽 基ETF近期大规模的抛售导致的流动性压力，情绪指数出现明显下滑，发出右侧卖出信号且面临跌出亢 奋区考验。考虑到春节前避险情绪升温，情绪指数回落的季节性效应，预计市场短期面临情绪降温和指 数回调压力。综合考虑当前市场增量资金和情绪指数各分项指标，预计全A指数调整空间有限，且有望 在春节前企稳，春节前后迎来新一轮上行行情。 在板块方面，有色金属随着金银价格的下跌继续跌停潮，晓程科技（300139）、铜陵有色（000630）、 锌业股 ...

Market Overview - The current market is in a phase of upward trend with periodic fluctuations, emphasizing a balanced allocation between technology and value sectors, focusing on structural aspects rather than short-term index movements [1] - The market is expected to stabilize and rise before the Spring Festival, driven by fundamental and liquidity factors, with significant political and economic catalysts anticipated [1] Investment Strategy - Focus on sectors benefiting from the Spring Festival effect and macroeconomic catalysts in February, particularly in technology and value assets [1][3] - Maintain value assets as a core holding while increasing exposure to cyclical industry leaders showing improved sentiment [3] Sector Highlights - AI applications are gaining traction, with major tech companies competing for market share during the Spring Festival, including initiatives from Tencent, Baidu, and Alibaba [2] - High-performing technology manufacturing sectors include AI hardware, energy storage, and pharmaceuticals [2] - Future industries of interest include defense, domestic computing power, and controlled nuclear fusion [2] Liquidity and Market Data - The dollar index experienced significant fluctuations, impacting market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policies [5] - A notable outflow of approximately 370 billion yuan from broad-based ETFs, while sector-specific ETFs saw inflows, particularly in metals and semiconductors [5] - In the Hong Kong market, short-selling activity has returned to historical averages, with net inflows from southbound funds decreasing [6] ETF Holdings Summary - Significant reductions in holdings of major ETFs, with the CSI 300 seeing a decrease of 5,644 million yuan, leaving a remaining share of 42% [7] - Other ETFs also experienced notable reductions, indicating a shift in investment strategies among institutional investors [7]