塑料产业日报 2025-06-25 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 吨装置停车，部分装置重启，预计产量、产能利用率小幅下降。下游淡季延续，终端备货意愿低、对制品 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 提价抵触。成本方面，伊朗、以色列同意全面停火，近期国际油价大幅下挫。中东地缘因素影响逐渐减弱 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 ，短期L2509预计震荡走势，关注7170附近支撑与7330附近压力。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

Report Overview - Research variety: Caustic soda [1] - Report cycle: Weekly - Date of report: June 23, 2025 - Researcher: He Ning Key Points 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The caustic soda futures main - contract price continued to decline in a volatile manner this week, and the spot price also continued to fall. High - price transactions of caustic soda are difficult at present. The main downstream maintains a high purchase volume, while non - aluminum downstream remains on the sidelines. It is expected that the futures market may continue to operate weakly in the short term [12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - This week, the caustic soda futures continued to fluctuate and consolidate. As of the reporting date, the closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2256 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton from last week, a decline of 0.31%. The highest price was [not given], the lowest was [not given], the open interest was [not given] million lots, a decrease of [not given] lots from last week, and the trading volume was [not given] million lots, an increase of [not given] million lots from last week. The futures price maintained a narrow - range volatile downward pattern, with the decline rate decreasing compared to last week. Currently, the caustic soda futures price is at a relatively low level in history, and the number of registered warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is 0 [2][11] 3.2 Spot Market - Supply: The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 81.2%, a 0.3% increase from last week. Some enterprises in Central China, North China, and Northeast China temporarily reduced production or were under maintenance, with load decreasing; equipment in Northwest and East China resumed operation after maintenance, with load increasing [5] - Inventory: The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above across the country was 36.65 million tons, a decrease of 9.57% from last week [5] - Price: The main downstream alumina plants continuously lowered the purchase price of 32% caustic soda this week, other enterprises' transaction prices continued to follow the decline, the export price of high - concentration caustic soda declined, and the new order signing situation was poor, resulting in enterprises selling at reduced prices. The transaction price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.90% from last week; in Jiangsu, it was [not clear], a decrease of 1.04% [5][11] 3.3 Futures - Spot Combination Analysis - Spot market: The main downstream alumina plants continuously lowered the purchase price of 32% caustic soda, other enterprises' transaction prices continued to follow the decline, the export price of high - concentration caustic soda declined, and new order signing was poor, forcing enterprises to cut prices [11] - Futures market: The caustic soda futures price maintained a narrow - range volatile downward pattern, with the decline rate decreasing compared to last week. The current price is at a relatively low level in history, and the number of registered warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is 0 [11] 3.4 Associated Varieties Analysis - Upstream raw materials: The price of raw salt remained stable, and the coal price continued to decline in a volatile manner, causing the cost side to continue to decline [11] - Downstream: The operating rate of alumina increased slightly this week, but the overall incremental demand for caustic soda was limited. Non - aluminum downstream demand still showed no obvious increase, and the procurement of caustic soda was mainly for rigid demand [11]

黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2025 年 6 月 24 日 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：6月23日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2510 | 29 ...

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2025 年 6 月 20 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：6月19日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2510 | 29 ...

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2025 年 6 月 19 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：6月18日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2510 | 29 ...

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 6 月 18 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-17 精炼镍升贴水维稳，盘面底部震荡 镍品种 市场分析 2025-06-16日沪镍主力合约2507开于119800元/吨，收于119690元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-0.28%，当日成交量 为98243手，持仓量为79723手。 沪镍主力合约2507全天窄幅震荡，日线收十字小阴线。07主力合约的成交量对比上个交易日有小幅增加，持仓量 有小幅减少。从量能方面来看，日线MACD的绿柱面积开始缓慢扩大，短周期内或许会步入弱势震荡的阶段。60 分钟线在6月6日的123000附近出现顶背离现象，继续关注上方122000-123000短期一线压力位置，下方等待破位 119000的底背离出现。现货市场方面，金川镍早盘报价较上个交易日下调875元/吨，市场主流品牌报价均有一定的 下调。近期精炼镍盘面以弱势震荡为主，但市场升贴水较平稳，下方仍有支撑，精炼镍现货成交整体表现一般， 升贴水对比上个交易日有小幅下调，升贴水近期处于相对平稳的态势。其中金川镍升水变化0元/吨至2500元/吨， 进口镍升水变化-150元/吨至350元/吨，镍豆升水为 -450元/吨。前一交易日沪镍仓单量为223 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The methanol futures market is expected to maintain a strong trend, but investors should remain cautious and avoid blind chasing [3]. - The stock index futures market is expected to continue to fluctuate upward [7]. - The gold market is expected to reach new highs, and a low - buying strategy is more prudent [11]. - The iron ore market should be viewed with a focus on oscillations, and attention should be paid to steel mill profits [14]. - The glass market should be viewed as oscillating in the short - term, pending the effects of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements [17]. - The urea market is in a weak adjustment phase, and short - position holders should be vigilant against strong long - position rebounds [19]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol Futures - On June 16, the main contract of methanol futures rose by over 4%. The increase was driven by both supply - side tightening and demand - side recovery [3]. - On the supply side, domestic coal - based methanol plants reduced production due to environmental inspections, with the operating rate dropping to 70% and production decreasing by 3% compared to last week. Imports also decreased due to tight supply in the Middle East [3]. - On the demand side, the operating rate of MTO units rose to 78%, the demand in the olefin industry recovered, and formaldehyde enterprises increased their inventory, driving up the demand for methanol [3]. - In terms of cost structure, coal prices rose by 5%, and natural gas prices increased slightly, providing strong cost support [3]. - Due to the escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel, 4 methanol plants in Iran with a total capacity of 6.6 million tons shut down, and the rest operated at low loads. Iranian methanol accounts for about half of China's imports [3]. Stock Index Futures - In May, the stable and positive trend remained unchanged, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate upward [7]. Gold - Due to the Israeli raid on Iran, geopolitical risks have intensified. The overseas gold market is approaching a new high, and although Shanghai gold is relatively weak, it is also following the upward trend. Gold is still expected to reach new highs [12]. Iron Ore - Supply has increased month - on - month, pig iron production has seasonally weakened, and port inventories have returned to accumulation. The weak reality has increased the over - valuation risk of iron ore, and attention should be paid to steel mill profits [15]. - Technically, the support level was tested again today and proved effective, so the market should be viewed as oscillating [14]. Glass - On the supply side, there has been no significant cold - repair situation due to losses, and factory inventories remain high. Downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking motivation, and demand has not continued to increase significantly [18]. - Technically, the market showed narrow - range fluctuations today, and a short - term oscillating view is adopted, pending the effects of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements [17]. Urea - On the supply side, the daily domestic urea production is around 205,600 tons, and the operating rate is about 87.23% [19]. - On the demand side, agricultural demand progress is still slow, and downstream players' participation is limited. Urea prices continue to adjust weakly. When reaching the previous support area, short - position holders have made profits, and they should be vigilant against strong long - position rebounds [19].

01 P A R T 工业硅期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 2025.06.16-06.20 工业硅、碳酸锂 期货品种周报 中线行情分析 工业硅期货价格维持偏弱走势。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 2 工业硅现货价格持续下跌，西南地区进入丰水期，电价略有下调，生产成 本降低，目前只有大厂和国企稳定运行，整体开工略有下调，但整体供应 仍处于宽松阶段。下游多晶硅有机硅开工持续缩减，采购窄幅下降。供需 面支撑表现偏弱。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示工业硅价格日线 处于下行通道中。 目录 工业硅市场供需矛盾依然存在，库存压力大，产量预期增多，建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 维持偏弱走势，建议观望。 n 本周策略建议 维持偏弱走势，建议观望。 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日，上海期货交易所阴极铜库存为300,045吨，较上一周增加322吨。从季节性角度分析，当前库存较近五年相比维持在较高水平。 SHF阴极铜库存走势 SHF阴极铜库存季节性分析 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Group 2: Core View - Zinc prices face significant upward pressure. The supply side has high pressure with expected supply growth of around 10% in June and long - term high supply growth in the second half of the year. Although consumption is currently strong, it can't offset the high supply growth and shows signs of weakening seasonally [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is -$32.08/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 10 yuan/ton to 22,310 yuan/ton, with the premium down 15 yuan/ton to 260 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 30 yuan/ton to 22,330 yuan/ton, with the premium up 5 yuan/ton to 280 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 20 yuan/ton to 22,280 yuan/ton, with the premium down 5 yuan/ton to 230 yuan/ton [1] - Futures: On June 12, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,100 yuan/ton, closed at 22,085 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 118,688 lots, down 51,539 lots. Open interest was 121,089 lots, down 4,690 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 21,965 - 22,160 yuan/ton [1] - Inventory: As of June 12, 2025, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 77,100 tons, down 2,200 tons from last week. LME zinc inventory was 132,025 tons, down 550 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - Spot market: Downstream procurement enthusiasm is still low, and spot premiums continue to decline [3] - Supply: Port and smelter raw material inventories are sufficient, TC is rising, and smelting profits are high. Supply pressure remains, with expected supply growth of around 10% in June and long - term high supply growth in the second half of the year [3] - Consumption: Overall consumption is strong, but the impact of Sino - US tariffs is not yet apparent. It can't offset high supply growth, and there are signs of seasonal weakening [3]