1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 01 contract showed a downward trend, with the Monday opening price at 3,048 yuan/ton and the Friday closing price at 3,037 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 0.36%. It is expected that next week, the demand recovery will be limited, while the supply will decrease, and the cost support will strengthen. The market may experience a bullish oscillatory adjustment [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Supply**: In November 2025, the total planned output of asphalt from local refineries was 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. This week, the domestic sample capacity utilization rate of petroleum asphalt was 30.8006%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments were 213,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.02%. The sample enterprise output was 514,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.38%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 836,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.21%. Refineries reduced production this week, and it is expected to reduce supply pressure next week [5]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 29%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction asphalt开工率 was 6.6%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the modified asphalt开工率 was 11.2169%, a month - on - month increase of 0.79 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 34%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 33%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.00 percentage point, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [5]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 562.55 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.80%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 915.1743 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 14.48%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that the short - term support will strengthen [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 825,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.02%. The in - plant inventory was 647,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%. The port diluted asphalt inventory was 350,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.75%. The social inventory continued to decline, while the in - plant and port inventories continued to accumulate [6]. 3.2 Technical Analysis - This week, the main 01 contract showed a downward trend, and it is expected to experience a bullish oscillatory adjustment next week [105].

2025 年 11 月 17 日 PP：短期不追空，中期趋势仍有压力 张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 zhangchi4@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 PP 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PP2601 | 6474 | 0.40% | 308,865 | -6371 | | | | 昨日价差 | | | 前日价差 | | 价 差 | 01合约基差 | -144 | | -160 | | | | 01-05合约价差 | -101 | | -97 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 6230 - | 6450 | 6200 - | 6450 | | | 华东 | 6330 - | 6580 | 6320 - | 6580 | | | 华南 | 6430 - | 6550 | 6400 - 6550 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，隆众资讯、国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 国内 PP 市场偏暖 ...

2025.11.17-11.21 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 纯碱期货 中线行情分析 纯碱期货处于震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周国内纯碱市场稳中偏强，轻质纯碱价格小幅上调5-3 5元/吨， 重质纯碱整体持稳。供应端因部分企业检修而略有收缩，但整体仍 处高位；需求保持平稳，下游按需采购。成本端煤炭价格走强支撑 企业挺价意愿，但供过于求格局限制上涨空间，市场延续窄幅整理。 纯碱期货多空交织，成本支撑与供应收紧形成提振，而高库存和疲 软需求压制反弹，短期维持震荡格局。 2 建议观望 中线策略建议 3 目录 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 Contents 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 上周国内纯碱市场窄幅震荡偏弱，供需矛盾持续。周中 部分地区价格承压回落，周末虽受成本支撑局部尝试提 价，但成交仍以低价为主。期货持续走弱创新低，供过 于求格局未改，短期缺乏利好，预计纯碱2601运行区间 1100-1250。 本周策略建议 上周国内纯碱市场稳中偏强，轻碱价格小幅上涨，重碱 持稳。供应收缩但需求平稳，成本支撑明显，供过于 求格局下预计延续窄幅整理。期货多空拉 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel price has broken through the downward trend and is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate. Stainless steel prices are suppressed by weak reality, but the downside is limited. Industrial silicon's warehouse receipts are being depleted, and the market has upward momentum. For polysilicon, the upcoming industry conference in Chengdu next week may boost market sentiment. The price of lithium carbonate is under pressure due to short - term weakening of power and energy storage demand and increased ore shipments. Palm oil has fully priced in short - term negatives, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas. Soybean oil lacks driving forces from the US soybean side and will fluctuate. [4][5][29][60][88] - For nickel, the current situation is mainly characterized by the contradiction of smelting inventory accumulation. Both the current and expected supply - demand situations limit the upside potential of Shanghai nickel. Although there are some nickel ore governance news in Indonesia, the inventory accumulation contradiction is more prominent. For stainless steel, the overall fundamentals lack upward driving forces, but the cost perspective makes short - selling at low levels less cost - effective. [4][5] - Industrial silicon's supply is expected to decrease from November, and the demand is also marginally declining. The key lies in whether the organic silicon enterprises will jointly cut production. Polysilicon is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the upcoming conference in Chengdu may boost market sentiment. [30][31][33][34] - The price of lithium carbonate is under pressure due to increased supply from Australian mines and weakening demand in the energy storage and power sectors. [61][62] - Palm oil has entered a price - gaming period, with short - term marginal themes lacking. The large inventory at the end of the year has been well - priced, and the international oil price is in the bottom - building stage. Soybean oil has a strong price bottom support, but it is necessary to be vigilant against crude oil price fluctuations. [89][90][91] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Trends**: The nickel price has broken through the downward trend, and stainless steel prices are suppressed by weak reality. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 119,440 yuan, and the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,565 yuan. [4][5][14] - **Inventory Situation**: On November 14, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 3,563 tons to 54,243 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,014 tons to 252,090 tons. In the nickel - stainless steel sector, the SMM nickel - iron inventory in October was 29,564 tons, with a slight month - on - month increase and a 27% year - on - year increase. The SMM stainless steel factory inventory in October was 1.574 million tons, with a 9% year - on - month and 3% month - on - month increase. [6][8] - **Market News**: There are various news in the Indonesian nickel market, including forestry workgroups taking over mines, sanctions on mining companies, and plans to adjust nickel production and quotas in 2026. [9][10][12] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: This week, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated within a range, and the spot price remained unchanged. The polysilicon futures price first fell and then rose, and the spot price was stable. The industrial silicon futures closed at 9,020 yuan/ton on Friday, and the polysilicon futures closed at 54,045 yuan/ton. [29] - **Supply and Demand Fundamentals**: Industrial silicon's industry inventory decreased this week, with supply decreasing due to production cuts in the southwest region. The demand is in a weak state. Polysilicon's upstream inventory increased, with short - term production decreasing and demand also weakening. [30][31][32] - **Future Outlook**: Industrial silicon's warehouse receipts are being depleted, and the market has upward momentum. It is recommended to go long at low prices, with the expected price range of 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton next week. Polysilicon's upcoming conference in Chengdu may boost market sentiment, and the expected price range is 51,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton. [33][34] Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends**: The lithium carbonate futures contract rose and then fluctuated at a high level. The 2601 contract closed at 87,360 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5,060 yuan/ton. The spot price was 85,150 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 4,750 yuan/ton. [60] - **Supply and Demand Fundamentals**: The lithium ore price exceeded $1,000/ton, and the domestic port lithium concentrate inventory increased. The weekly production of lithium carbonate was basically flat, and the inventory continued to decrease. The demand for energy storage and power decreased. [61] - **Future Outlook**: The price of lithium carbonate is under pressure, and the price range of the futures main contract is expected to be 73,000 - 88,000 yuan/ton. [62] Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Price Trends**: Last week, the palm oil 01 contract fell 0.18%, and the soybean oil 01 contract rose 0.88%. This week, the palm oil main contract closed at 8,644 yuan/ton, with a - 0.41% change, and the soybean oil main contract closed at 8,256 yuan/ton, with a 1.05% increase. [88][93] - **Supply and Demand Fundamentals**: Malaysia's palm oil production in the fourth quarter may be higher than last year, and the inventory at the end of the year may remain at a relatively high level. Indonesia's palm oil export tariff is in a price - gaming stage. For soybean oil, the production situation in Brazil is good, and the US soybean oil has resolved some of the pressure through price adjustments. [89][90] - **Future Outlook**: Palm oil has entered a price - gaming period, with short - term marginal themes lacking. The large inventory at the end of the year has been well - priced, and the international oil price is in the bottom - building stage. Soybean oil has a strong price bottom support, but it is necessary to be vigilant against crude oil price fluctuations. [89][90][91]

Report Overview - The report is a daily publication from Goldtrust Futures Research Institute, covering PTA and MEG futures markets on November 13, 2025 [1][3][4] PTA Market Market Performance - On November 13, the PTA main futures contract TA2601 rose 0.64%, and the basis weakened to -79 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] Fundamental Information - The market price of PTA in East China was 4565 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton from the previous trading day - The cost of crude oil prices fell again - The PTA capacity utilization rate was 75.42% - There were many maintenance and changes in plants under low processing fees recently - The inventory days of PTA factories within the week were 4.09 days, a week-on-week increase of 0.06 days [3] Main Force Trends - There was a divergence between long and short main forces [3] Market Expectations - In the short term, the PTA plant operating rate will decline slightly, which is a planned change - The spot processing fee will recover slightly but still operate at a low level - Without substantial production reduction policies, the supply will remain in excess in the long term - The high operation of downstream polyester will support demand - The PTA market is expected to fluctuate following the cost side in the short term [3] MEG Market Market Performance - On November 13, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2601 rose 0.05%, and the basis was 63 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4] Fundamental Information - The market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 3943 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day - The cost of crude oil prices fell again, and the production margins of oil-based and coal-based ethylene glycol remained in the red - The total inventory of MEG ports in East China within the week was 56.4 tons, a week-on-week increase of 6.5 tons [4] Main Force Trends - The long main force increased positions [4] Market Expectations - The expected arrival volume of ethylene glycol in the future is high, and the visible inventory has increased significantly - The far-month may continue to accumulate inventory - Recently, some ethylene glycol plants have been under maintenance and restarted, and there are still new plants planned to be commissioned - The supply side is expected to increase - Terminal orders increased during the Double Eleven period, but the peak demand season is coming to an end - The price center of ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon futures market is volatile with a downward trend, affected by factors such as production reduction, weak downstream demand, and market sentiment towards policies [1]. - The lithium carbonate futures market is expected to have a wide - range shock, supported by strong downstream and energy - storage demand, and continuous inventory reduction [5][8]. - The industrial silicon futures market will likely maintain a volatile state due to a supply - demand dual - weak pattern [12]. Summary by Directory Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The polysilicon futures market had an intraday rise and fall, with the main 2601 contract down 3.33% to 51930 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There were few changes in the fundamentals. Silicon wafer and battery cell spot prices dropped significantly. The market focus was on the storage platform and enterprise announcements, but market sensitivity decreased. In November, domestic production was expected to be close to 120,000 tons, a significant decrease from October. Downstream demand in the photovoltaic industry chain remained weak, and component tender prices continued to decline [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position of polysilicon futures increased slightly. The main 2601 contract decreased in price with an increased position, controlled by short - sellers. There were trading opportunities at 9:30 and 13:35. The 5 - minute cycle was in a weak state, and the futures may fluctuate downward. The 2 - hour cycle's long - short dividing line was 53845 yuan/ton [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The lithium carbonate futures market also rose and then fell, with the main 2601 contract down 0.80% to 86540 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Downstream and energy - storage demand was strong, and continuous inventory reduction supported the price. Weekly production increased, and the supply - demand pattern improved marginally. However, the spot market's acceptance of high - priced lithium carbonate was limited. This week's inventory decreased by 3405 tons, a 2.67% decrease, and the social inventory had been decreasing for 12 weeks, with a cumulative reduction of 18465 tons. The smelting profit was restored [5][8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position of lithium carbonate futures increased slightly. The main 2601 contract decreased in price with a decreased position, controlled by long - sellers. The 5 - minute cycle was in a sideways shock state, and it was expected to have a wide - range shock in the short term. The 2 - hour cycle was still strong, and the long - short dividing line was 78560 yuan/ton [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The industrial silicon futures market fluctuated weakly, with the main 2601 contract down 1.18% to 9180 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The fundamentals tightened. Most small and medium - sized southern factories reduced or stopped production due to higher electricity prices in the dry season, while some leading enterprises remained stable. Northern large - scale factories' production did not decrease as expected. However, downstream polysilicon production was expected to decrease, and the organic silicon and aluminum alloy industries faced challenges. The overall supply - demand was weak, with no clear trend [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position of industrial silicon futures decreased. The main 2601 contract decreased in price with a decreased position, controlled by long - sellers. The 5 - minute cycle was weak, and it was expected to have a wide - range shock in the short term. The 2 - hour cycle was still strong, and the long - short dividing line was 8885 yuan/ton [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural products, including their current situation, influencing factors, and future outlooks. It indicates that most products are expected to show a trend of oscillation, with some products having specific tendencies such as corn being expected to oscillate strongly, and pigs expected to oscillate weakly [1][8]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Oils - **Viewpoint**: Malaysian palm oil inventory in October was slightly higher than expected, while market sentiment improved. The market is expected to oscillate, with macro and industrial factors influencing the trend [5]. - **Logic**: Last Friday, US soybeans oscillated upwards. Recently, the expected domestic imported soybean arrivals are at a relatively high level in the same period, and the speed of domestic soybean oil inventory reduction is expected to be slow. In terms of palm oil, the production and export volume of Malaysian palm oil in October increased significantly month - on - month, and the inventory was slightly higher than expected. In terms of rapeseed oil, as a large amount of Russian rapeseed comes on the market, the domestic rapeseed oil supply is expected to increase in the future [5]. 3.2 Protein Meals - **Viewpoint**: The double meal market oscillated, waiting for the guidance of the supply - demand report. It is expected that both US soybeans and domestic soybean meal will oscillate. One can buy on dips but not chase highs [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the US government shutdown ended, and the supply - demand report may be released. The market expects that the US soybean yield may be lowered. Domestically, in the short term, the reduction of soybean meal inventory in oil mills is slow, and the spot and basis are weak. In the medium term, the procurement of December shipments is progressing, but the January imports are still at a loss. In the long term, the supply in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be sufficient, and there may be a soybean gap in March 2026 [6]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: With downstream stocking and upstream reluctance to sell, the futures price broke through upwards. It is expected to oscillate strongly [7][8]. - **Logic**: Today, domestic corn prices mostly rose. On the supply side, farmers' reluctance to sell increased due to cold weather, and the selling pressure has not been realized. On the demand side, the demand for feed grains is concentrated in the Northeast, and the increase in trade costs further supports the price. In the fourth quarter, the market is still in the stage of new grain listing pressure, and the selling pressure after "freezing" needs attention [7][8]. 3.4 Pigs - **Viewpoint**: There is a game between supply and demand, and the pig price oscillates. It is expected to oscillate weakly, showing a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation" [8]. - **Logic**: In terms of supply, in the short term, the supply of commercial pigs in November is still large. In the medium term, the number of pigs for slaughter in the fourth quarter is expected to increase. In the long term, the production capacity of sows is starting to decline, and the supply pressure may gradually ease in the second half of 2026. In terms of demand, the ratio of meat to pig price has increased. In terms of inventory, the average weight of slaughtered pigs has increased, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens has increased [8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It rebounded slightly following the macro - sentiment, and the sustainability needs attention. It is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating and highly elastic trend [9][11]. - **Logic**: The rubber market rebounded in line with the commodity rebound rhythm. The macro - sentiment was positive, and the valuation of RU was lower than NR. The supply in overseas producing areas was affected by weather, and the demand has not changed significantly recently [9][11]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It has temporarily stabilized, but the raw material pressure is still relatively large. It is recommended to short on rallies [12][13]. - **Logic**: The BR market rebounded slightly following natural rubber. The price of butadiene has fallen rapidly and temporarily stabilized. The supply of butadiene is abundant, and the downstream buying sentiment is cautious. Although there is short - term support at the bottom, the market atmosphere is still cautious [12][13]. 3.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: It fluctuated narrowly and oscillated. In the short term, the 01 contract is expected to oscillate within a range; in the long term, it may oscillate strongly [13]. - **Logic**: Macroscopically, the improvement of Sino - US trade relations is beneficial to cotton imports and textile exports in the long term but has limited short - term impact. In terms of supply and demand, the estimated output of Xinjiang cotton has been lowered, and the cost supports the cotton price, but there is a lack of new positive factors. The inventory is in the accumulation stage, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate within a range [13]. 3.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: It rebounded slightly. In the medium - long term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to short on rallies [14]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the peak season of Brazilian sugar production and export has ended, and the new sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere has started. India, Thailand, and Brazil are all expected to increase production. Domestically, the sugar production in the new season is expected to increase, and the import is expected to be tightened, but the sugar price may decline as the new sugar supply increases [14]. 3.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The futures drive the spot, and the market is dominated by funds. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [15]. - **Logic**: The futures market is rising strongly, but the spot market shows insufficient follow - up. There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factors include the rise of packaging paper prices, the increase in import costs, and the expected good production and sales of white cards and cultural papers. The negative factors include low demand for softwood pulp, slow procurement by downstream enterprises, and the influence of warehouse receipts on pricing [15]. 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - **Viewpoint**: Supported by tenders, the market has stabilized. The price is expected to stop falling and stabilize [16]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the new production capacity has increased the supply pressure, and the tender delay has limited support for the price. In the later stage, the concentrated start of tenders in November is expected to drive the price to stop falling and rebound, but the market may decline in December and January [16]. 3.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: Domestic timber is being delivered successively, and the log market is operating at a low level. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom recently [19]. - **Logic**: The spot market of logs is under downward pressure due to factors such as traders' active inventory reduction and weak sales of integrated materials. The foreign quotation of New Zealand logs has been lowered, but the trading volume is still poor. After the peak season, the inventory is expected to accumulate again, but the downward space is limited [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The lithium carbonate futures continued to rebound, with the main 2601 contract rising 6.00% to 87,240 yuan/ton, hitting a two - and - a - half - month high. The market returned to the fundamental logic, and the "energy storage + power" demand strongly supported the lithium price. The inventory decreased, and the price was expected to be strong in the short term [1]. - The industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly, with the main 2601 contract rising 0.76% to 9,290 yuan/ton. The fundamentals showed a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the market was expected to be strong in the short term [5][8]. - The polysilicon futures continued to fluctuate at a high level, with the main 2601 contract rising 0.95% to 53,720 yuan/ton. The market trading focus switched between fundamentals and policy expectations, and the market was mainly in a wide - range shock [12]. 3. Summary by Directory Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: The main 2601 contract rose 6.00% to 87,240 yuan/ton, hitting a two - and - a - half - month high [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The "energy storage + power" demand supported the lithium price. The new energy vehicle market had strong growth momentum, and the energy storage demand exceeded expectations. The inventory decreased by 3405 tons, a 2.67% week - on - week decrease, and the de - stocking accelerated [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position increased significantly. The main 2601 contract increased positions and rose, with bulls in control. The 5 - minute cycle was expected to be strong in the short term, and the 2 - hour cycle turned strong last Friday with a long - short dividing water level of 78,560 yuan/ton [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 2601 contract rose 0.76% to 9,290 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The fundamentals tightened. Southern small and medium - sized factories reduced production due to the dry season, while northern supply remained high. The downstream had a reduction expectation, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand [5][8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position increased slightly. The main 2601 contract increased positions and rose, with bulls in control. The 5 - minute cycle was expected to be strong in the short term, and the 2 - hour cycle turned strong last Friday with a long - short dividing water level of 8,885 yuan/ton [8]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 2601 contract rose 0.95% to 53,720 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The market trading focus switched between fundamentals and policy expectations. The supply was expected to tighten, with an expected 15.36% month - on - month decrease in November production. The silicon wafer production decreased, the battery market was weak, and the component price was stable [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position decreased slightly. The main 2601 contract increased positions and rose, with bulls in control. The 5 - minute cycle was in shock, and the 2 - hour cycle had a long - short dividing water level of 56,065 yuan/ton [13][15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, short - term PTA device operating rate will decline slightly as planned. Spot processing fees will recover slightly but still run at a low level. Without substantial production - cut policies, the supply will be in excess in the long - term. High downstream polyester operation supports demand, and the PTA market is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate strongly in the short - term [3] - For MEG, the expected arrival volume in the future is large, the visible inventory rises significantly, and there may be continuous inventory accumulation in the far - month. There is an incremental expectation on the supply side. The demand peak season is near the end, and the MEG price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [4] 3. Summary according to Related Contents PTA - **Market situation**: On November 10, the PTA main futures contract TA2601 rose 1.12%, and the basis strengthened to - 78 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] - **Fundamentals**: The market price in East China was 4594 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The crude oil price fluctuated narrowly. The PTA capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.71% to 75.42%. The PTA factory inventory days were 4.09 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.06 days [3] - **Main force trends**: The long - position main force reduced positions [3] MEG - **Market situation**: On November 10, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2601 rose 0.56%, and the basis strengthened to 72 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous day [4] - **Fundamentals**: The market price in East China was 4008 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The crude oil price fluctuated narrowly. The production margins of oil - based and coal - based ethylene glycol losses expanded. The port inventory in East China was 56.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.5 tons [4] - **Main force trends**: There were differences between long and short main forces [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term rise of urea futures is difficult to change the long - term supply - demand imbalance. Although the price may maintain a narrow - range shock in the short term, it is likely to return to a weak consolidation state if there is no new export quota policy. For other varieties, different trading strategies are recommended based on their respective supply - demand and technical conditions [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures - On November 7, the urea futures 2601 contract closed at 1,668 yuan/ton, up 1.65%, with market sentiment slightly warming. The rise is mainly boosted by the spot end, strengthening the short - term bullish expectation [3]. - Currently, the agricultural demand for urea is in the final stage, and the industrial demand from compound fertilizer enterprises shows a phenomenon of following up on purchases at low prices. However, in 2025, urea is still in the capacity expansion cycle, with nearly 7 million tons of new capacity added throughout the year, and the supply is expected to be loose [3]. - In the short term, the futures price may maintain a narrow - range shock, and the follow - up market depends on the export quota policy. If new quotas are implemented, it may bring phased opportunities; otherwise, the price is likely to return to a weak state [4]. Stock Index Futures - The A - share market showed a pattern of opening low and rising in the morning and falling in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating within 20 points and finally closing with a high - level doji. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate upwards at a high level next week [7][8]. Gold - After more than a week of adjustment, gold shows signs of stabilization, and investors can buy on dips [12]. Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of loose supply is further fermented. The demand side is weak except for exports, and the real estate and infrastructure are still bottom - seeking. Technically, it broke down today, and the trading strategy is to short on rebounds [14][15]. Glass - The daily melting volume of glass has little change, and the inventory has decreased this week. The subsequent main drivers lie in policy - side stimulus policies and anti - involution policies for the supply side. Technically, investors can pay attention to the opportunity to go long after the price stabilizes at a low level [19][20]. Eggs - As the temperature drops, laying hens in the main egg - producing areas in the north will enter the winter egg - laying off - season, and those in the south will gradually enter the early stage of the winter egg - laying off - season. The monthly total supply of commercial poultry eggs will stop increasing and start to decline, and the contradiction of seasonal supply shortage will gradually emerge. Investors can take long positions [23]. Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong has remained stable. The price increase of downstream paper enterprises has boosted the pulp price, and the futures have increased in positions and prices. Currently, the supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, the supply is still loose, and the purchasing end is cautious. It is expected that the pulp will continue to operate weakly, and it is recommended to treat it as a low - level shock [26].