二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 5 月 18 日 棕榈油：产地累库风险未完全释放 豆油：美豆油情绪市，谨慎看待上方泡沫 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：基本面变化不大，跟随美豆油情绪市单边波动加剧，棕榈油 09 合约周涨 1.24%。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 次受到提振。与此同时，在 RVO 可能即将公布的双重刺激下，美豆油势如破竹，而后泡沫破裂，持续我们 认为的高血压低血糖的走势。美豆油当下最大的利多不在于 RVO 公布数字高低，而在于即将公布前夕的风 险溢价，并可能以此为由进行多轮炒作，但我们认为最终数字公布在 50 亿加仑以上的概率较小，2026 年 原料用量大概率与 2024 年相当。国际油脂供应上暂时关注南美豆油新作上市何时体现报价压力，国际豆 棕价差持续高位、阿根廷豆油进入集中上市季节而当前排船较少，如果 6 月难以保持 50 万吨以上的出口 那么国际豆油将面临一定的卖压，进一步拖累国际油脂价格，而美豆油的上方表现也可能被现实情况抑 制， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The MPOB April palm oil supply - demand report is bearish as the significant increase in production led to higher - than - expected ending stocks [21]. - The USDA May supply - demand report is bullish for soybeans as the 24/25 and 25/26 annual US soybean ending stocks are lower than expected [22]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Quotes - Overnight, the closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, US soybeans, etc. are presented. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 07 (BMD) was 3846.00, with a previous - day decline of 1.61% and an overnight decline of 0.41% [1]. - The latest prices and price changes of currency indices including the US dollar index, RMB, Malaysian ringgit, etc. are also given. For instance, the US dollar index was 100.79, with a decline of 0.25% [1]. 02 Spot Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes of DCE palm oil 2505, DCE soybean oil 2509, and DCE soybean meal 2509 in different regions are provided. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2505 in East China was 8510, with a basis of 460 and no change in basis compared to the previous day [2]. - CNF premiums, premium changes, and CNF quotes for soybean crushing in different regions like the US Gulf, US West, Brazil, and Argentina are listed. For example, the CNF premium in Brazil was 133 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote was 444 dollars per ton [2]. 03 Important Fundamental Information 产区天气 - The future weather outlook (May 20 - 24) for major US soybean - producing states shows higher - than - median precipitation and generally lower temperatures. The weekend in the US Midwest will be dry, and more rainfall may occur next week. Different weather conditions are detailed for the western and eastern regions [3][5]. - Three institutions (AmSpec, ITS, SGS) reported that Malaysian palm oil exports from May 1 - 15 increased compared to the same period last month, with growth rates of 14.21%, 6.63%, and 19.22% respectively [6][7]. - RHB analysts believe that Indonesia's recent increase in the export special tax on crude palm oil (CPO) may support global CPO prices and strengthen its biodiesel policy [7]. - As of the week ending May 13, about 17% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, up from 15% the previous week and 9% last year [7]. - As of the week ending May 8, US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales met expectations, with specific changes in export sales, shipments, and new sales for different market years [8][9][10]. - The NOPA reported that US soybean oil inventory in April 2025 was 1.527 billion pounds, and soybean crushing volume was 190.226 million bushels [10]. - The US EPA has submitted a proposed rule to the White House to review the amount of biofuels that refineries must blend into their fuels starting in 2026 [10]. - CONAB predicted that the 2024/25 Brazilian soybean production would reach 168.3418 million tons, with an increase of 14% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month [11]. - Anec predicted that from May 11 - 17, Brazilian soybean exports would be 3.9898 million tons, and soybean meal exports would be 627,400 tons [12]. - Ukrainian producers expect soybean prices to rise at the end of May, and they may reduce the sowing area by 12% this year [12]. - The predicted Australian 2025/26 rapeseed production is 6.2 million tons, and future precipitation conditions need to be closely monitored [13]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose to a more - than - one - week high due to the increase in capesize vessel freight rates [13]. Domestic Supply and Demand - On May 15, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 70% compared to the previous trading day [15]. - On May 15, the trading volume of soybean meal in major oil mills decreased, and the overall oil mill operating rate increased by 1.13% [15]. - In April 2025, the national industrial feed production increased by 4.2% month - on - month and 9.0% year - on - year, with changes in different types of feed and raw material usage ratios [15]. - On May 15, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" decreased, and the price of eggs increased by 1.5% [16]. International Macroeconomic Data - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 91.7%, and there are different probabilities for rate cuts in July [17]. - US economic data such as initial jobless claims, industrial output, retail sales, PPI, etc. are presented, with some data meeting expectations and others deviating [17][18]. - The IEA monthly report shows that global oil supply will exceed demand in 2025, and the supply growth forecast is raised [18]. Domestic News - On May 15, the US dollar/yuan exchange rate was raised, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds [20]. 05 Key Information Analysis - The MPOB April palm oil report shows that production, exports, imports, and consumption changed, and the ending stocks increased by 19.37% to 1.866 million tons, higher than expected [21]. - The USDA May soybean report adjusted the 24/25 and 25/26 annual US soybean exports, production, and ending stocks, with the ending stocks lower than expected [22]. 06 Fund Flows - On May 15, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 28.657 billion yuan, including 4.803 billion yuan from commodity futures and 23.853 billion yuan from stock index futures. Different sectors of commodity futures also had varying capital flows [24][25]. 07 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

2025 年 05 月 16 日 品 研 究 豆粕：生柴政策忧虑、美豆收跌，或偏弱震荡 豆一：或跟随豆类品种偏弱震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 期货研究 商 所 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2507（元/吨） | 4172 +7（+0.17%） | 4157 -24（-0.57%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 2923 +25（+0.86%） | 2896 -7（-0.24%） | | | CBOT大豆07（美分/蒲） | 1053.25 -22.75（-2.11%） | | | | CBOT豆粕07（美元/短吨） | 296.3 +4.3（+1.47%） | n a | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | 山东 | 3040～3100， 较昨-30或持平； 21日至5月31日前提货M2509+30， 持平； | 现货基差M2509+120/+140， 较昨持平 ...

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 产业服务总部 饲料养殖团队 2025-05-16 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 研究员 5 月 16 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.9 元/公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；河南 14.6-15.2 元/公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；四川 14.2-14.6 元/公斤，较 上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；广东 14.9-15.4 元/公斤，较上一日稳定。前期二育 强势进场，部分养殖户预计加快出栏节奏，且肥标价差倒挂以及成本提升， 二次育肥进场积极性减弱，后期供应增加。需求端，天气转热，猪肉消费转 淡，且猪价偏高，屠企利润仍亏损，需求增量有限，不过低位二次育肥滚动 进场仍存，整体供需博弈加剧，猪价频繁震荡整理，关注企业出栏节奏、二 育进出情况。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能 提升，在疫情平稳情况 下，5-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏 高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下， 猪价有下跌风险， ...

国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：压力阶段性释放，寻找下方支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆油情绪泡沫，油脂风险加剧 | 2 | | 豆粕：生柴政策忧虑、美豆收跌，或偏弱震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：或跟随豆类品种偏弱震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：偏弱运行 | 7 | | 棉花：关注整体市场情绪的变化 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 10 | | 生猪：博弈持续 | 11 | | 花生：偏强震荡 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025年05月16日 2025 年 5 月 16 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 棕榈油：压力阶段性释放，寻找下方支撑 豆油：美豆油情绪泡沫，油脂风险加剧 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8 ...

期货热点追踪 相关链接 美豆期现货暴跌、美豆油封跌停，生物燃料政策疑虑引发动荡，美国大豆干旱区域较上周扩大，市场传 闻与干旱影响下，未来市场走向究竟怎样？ ...

美国生物燃料政策延期至2031年，美豆期货五连涨创九个月新高！豆粕牛市要来了？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Canadian rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed higher, with the benchmark contract up 2.63%, hitting a record high, supported by the optimistic sentiment of the proposed revision of the US biofuel policy. The South American harvest is gradually being realized, putting continuous pressure on international soybean prices. However, the USDA's forecast of the US soybean ending stocks for the 2025/26 season at 295 million bushels, significantly lower than market expectations, is bullish for US soybeans. In the domestic market, as imported soybeans arrive at ports in a concentrated manner this month, the oil mill operation rate has gradually recovered, and the supply will shift from tight to loose, suppressing market prices. For rapeseed meal, the direct import pressure has significantly decreased, but the recent addition of Indian rapeseed meal imports and relatively high short - term inventory pressure are suppressing prices. For rapeseed oil, the supply - side pressure has weakened due to the decline in rapeseed imports in the first quarter, but high inventory pressure continues to restrict market prices. The rapeseed oil market shows short - term supply relaxation but high long - term uncertainty [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9438 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2509 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) is 729.7 Canadian dollars/ton, up 22 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) is 5368 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (9 - 1) is 177 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan; rapeseed meal (9 - 1) is 197 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil main contract position is 316130 lots, up 10690 lots; rapeseed meal main contract position is 630254 lots, down 7170 lots. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is 34791 lots, up 47 lots; rapeseed meal is - 39584 lots, up 10578 lots. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil is 1727 sheets; rapeseed meal is 31278 sheets [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9480 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2430 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Average price: Rapeseed oil is 9477.5 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. - Import cost price: Rapeseed (import) is 5271.16 yuan/ton, up 125.4 yuan. - Oil - meal ratio is 3.79, up 0.1. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis is 106 yuan/ton, up 104 yuan; rapeseed meal main contract basis is - 79 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. - Substitute spot prices: Fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8330 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong is 8800 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 85.17 million tons, down 1.01 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged. - Rapeseed import quantity: The total rapeseed import quantity for the current month is 24.68 million tons, down 8.63 million tons. - Import rapeseed crushing profit: - 107 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan. - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 25 million tons, down 5 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - Import quantities: Rapeseed oil and mustard oil import quantity for the current month is 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; rapeseed meal import quantity for the current month is 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons. - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 16.05 million tons, up 2 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 3.6 million tons, up 2.15 million tons; East China rapeseed oil inventory is 64.9 million tons, down 0.64 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory is 45.42 million tons, down 0.17 million tons; Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 8 million tons, up 1.2 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory is 25.7 million tons, up 2.7 million tons. - Weekly提货量: Rapeseed oil weekly提货量 is 0.72 million tons, down 3.11 million tons; rapeseed meal weekly提货量 is 5.01 million tons, down 0.34 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Feed production: The current - month feed production is 2777.2 million tons, down 66.4 million tons. - Edible vegetable oil production: The current - month edible vegetable oil production is 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons. - Social consumer goods retail: The current - month catering revenue is 4235 billion yuan, down 1314 billion yuan [2]. Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint Summary - The direct import pressure of rapeseed meal has significantly decreased, and the later supply is likely to be tight. However, the recent addition of Indian rapeseed meal imports and relatively high short - term inventory pressure are suppressing market prices. Driven by the strengthening of US soybeans, the rapeseed meal futures price rebounded slightly today, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. Rapeseed Oil Viewpoint Summary - The new - year supply - demand pattern has improved, and the long - term price is under pressure. Driven by the US 45Z clean fuel tax credit policy and the continuous recovery of international crude oil, the domestic oil market is boosted. However, the palm oil producing areas are entering the seasonal production - increasing season, and palm oil is still under pressure. In the domestic market, the decline in rapeseed imports in the first quarter has weakened the supply - side pressure of rapeseed oil, and the increase in tariffs has significantly increased the import cost of Canadian rapeseed oil, restricting future imports. However, high inventory pressure continues to restrict market prices. The rapeseed oil market shows short - term supply relaxation but high long - term uncertainty. Driven by the strengthening of external oils, rapeseed oil closed higher in a volatile manner, generally maintaining a range - bound trend, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. Key Points to Monitor - The rapeseed operation rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions released by myagricultural.com on Monday, and the trends of China - Canada and Canada - US trade disputes [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April, the domestic oil market was volatile. At the beginning of the month, oils tumbled due to the escalation of the Sino - US trade war. Then, the market panic eased, and the tightening short - term supply supported the prices. However, with the arrival of imported soybeans and the increase in the oil mill operating rate, the prices fell again at the end of the month. The global oilseed supply is expected to remain loose, while the global vegetable oil market shows a supply - tightening expectation [3][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Domestic Futures**: In April, domestic soybean oil futures fell nearly 2%, palm oil futures fell nearly 4%, and rapeseed oil futures fluctuated slightly. CBOT soybean futures rose slightly, and Malaysian palm oil futures fell nearly 10% [3]. - **Registration of Warehouse Receipts**: The number of soybean oil warehouse receipts decreased by 553 to 4005, palm oil warehouse receipts remained at 0, and rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 484 to 1357 [10]. - **Basis of Three Major Oils**: The basis of soybean oil increased by 186 to 440, palm oil increased by 58 to 600, and rapeseed oil increased by 99 to 128 [14]. - **CFTC Managed Fund Net Positions**: As of the week of April 22, the net long positions of CBOT soybeans and soybean oil managed funds increased by 87066 and 99060 respectively compared with the same period last month [17]. - **Soybean Premiums at Major Ports**: As of April 30, 2025, the premium of South American port soybeans decreased by 30 cents/bushel to 145 cents/bushel, and that of the Gulf of Mexico decreased by 10 cents/bushel to 198 cents/bushel [18]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Global Oilseed and Vegetable Oil Supply and Demand - **Global Oilseeds**: In the 2024/25 season, global oilseed production was lowered, trade volume and crushing volume were raised, and ending stocks were increased. The overall supply of oilseeds is expected to remain loose [22]. - **Global Vegetable Oils**: In the 2024/25 season, global vegetable oil production, trade volume, and consumption are all expected to decline, and ending stocks are reduced, showing a supply - tightening expectation [22]. - **Global Three - Major Oils Consumption**: In 2024/25, the biodiesel consumption of the global three - major oils was 53686 thousand tons, slightly lower than the previous month's forecast, with the year - on - year growth rate dropping to 4.25%. The edible consumption was 124759 thousand tons, slightly lower than the previous month's forecast, with the year - on - year growth rate dropping to 4.31% [25]. 3.2.2 Soybean Supply and Demand - **Global Soybeans**: In 2024/25, global soybean production is expected to be slightly lowered, beginning stocks are significantly raised, and ending stocks are increased by 1.06 million tons to 122.5 million tons. The global soybean crushing volume increased by 2 million tons to 354.8 million tons [28]. - **US Soybeans**: As of the 33rd week of the 2024/25 season, the cumulative US soybean exports increased by 12.2% year - on - year, but exports to China decreased by 5.83% year - on - year. In March 2025, US soybean crushing volume decreased by 4.47% year - on - year, and the December soybean oil inventory decreased by 19.07% year - on - year. As of April 28, 2025, the US soybean sowing rate was 18% [32][35][39][42]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: In March 2025, Brazilian soybean exports were 15.7237 million tons, and the cumulative exports from January to March increased by 3.97% year - on - year. The estimated exports in April were 14.31 million tons [45]. 3.2.3 Rapeseed Supply and Demand - **Global Rapeseed**: In 2024/25, the global rapeseed production is expected to be 85.24 million tons, 451 thousand tons lower than the previous forecast, mainly due to the reduction in Canadian production. The ending stocks are expected to be 9.018 million tons, 60 thousand tons lower than the previous forecast [48]. - **Canadian Rapeseed**: As of the 37th week of the 2024/25 crushing season, the cumulative Canadian rapeseed exports increased by 72% year - on - year, and the commercial inventory decreased by 13.12% year - on - year. As of March 2025, the Canadian rapeseed crushing volume increased by 6.57% year - on - year, and the cumulative exports from January to March increased by 4.36% year - on - year [53][55]. 3.2.4 Palm Oil Supply and Demand - **Global Palm Oil**: In 2024/25, global palm oil production is expected to be 78.229 million tons, 1.3 million tons lower than the previous month's forecast, with the year - on - year growth rate dropping to 3%. Consumption is expected to be 76.953 million tons, 1.215 million tons lower than the previous month's forecast, with a year - on - year growth of 3.17%. Ending stocks are expected to be 14.786 million tons, 52 thousand tons lower than the previous month's forecast [58][59]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: In March 2025, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 0.38% year - on - year, exports decreased by 24.34% year - on - year, and inventory decreased by 8.76% year - on - year [67]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: In January 2025, Indonesian palm oil production, exports, and inventory were all lower than the same period last year [71]. 3.2.5 Other Countries' Oil - Related Data - **India**: In March 2025, Indian vegetable oil imports decreased by 15.55% year - on - year, and inventory decreased by 28.03% year - on - year [73]. - **China**: In March 2025, China's soybean imports decreased by 36.77% year - on - year, rapeseed imports decreased by 34.46% year - on - year, rapeseed oil imports increased by 76.88% year - on - year, and palm oil imports increased by 3% year - on - year. As of the 17th week of 2025, the inventory and operating rate of domestic soybean, rapeseed, and palm oil showed different changes [77][82][85][88][93][95][97].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the domestic futures market's soybean oil prices are expected to remain weak initially and then strengthen in the second quarter. The price of US soybean oil may rise due to biofuel policies, which could drive up the domestic palm oil price, and the domestic soybean - palm oil price spread is expected to remain inverted until the second half of Q2 [4]. - The international soybean oil market's raw material supply in Q2 and Q3 mainly comes from Brazilian soybeans, so the impact of US soybeans on domestic supply will be felt in Q4 and Q1 of 2026. The shift in the global soybean trade flow may increase China's soybean import costs. The upward trend in US soybean oil's domestic demand will offset the impact of the decline in US soybean exports, supporting the international oil price [59]. - In the domestic market, with the arrival of a large number of Brazilian soybeans starting in April, the domestic soybean supply will be sufficient from Q2 to Q3. The soybean oil supply will remain abundant even after the increase in soybean crushing, and the demand has not been significantly boosted. The soybean - palm oil spot price spread is expected to remain inverted until the arrival of more palm oil reduces its price [59]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾 (Market Review) - In Q1, the domestic and international soybean oil markets showed different trends. Domestically, soybean oil was relatively firm compared to palm oil at the beginning but was the weakest among the three major oils later due to the accelerated Brazilian soybean harvest and high expected arrivals in Q2. Internationally, US soybean oil prices were weak initially due to pessimistic biofuel policy expectations and then rebounded due to policy changes [7]. 3.2国际市场 (International Market) 3.2.1大豆产量 (Soybean Production) - As of March 29, Brazil's soybean harvest progress reached 81.4%, better than the same period last year and the five - year average. The 2024/25 production is expected to be 167 million tons, a 13.3% year - on - year increase [11]. - The USDA's March planting intention report shows that US farmers plan to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans in 2025/26, less than in 2024. The Q1 2025 soybean inventory in the US is at the highest level in the past three years [16]. 3.2.2大豆压榨 (Soybean Crushing) - Due to the expiration of the BTC biodiesel tax credit subsidy and the non - implementation of the new 45Z subsidy, US biodiesel production declined, and the soybean oil price dropped, leading to a low soybean crushing profit in Q1 [23]. 3.2.3豆油出口 (Soybean Oil Exports) - Due to the long - term inversion of the international soybean - palm oil price spread, the exports of North and South American soybean oil improved significantly. As of March 27, US soybean oil exports reached 660,000 tons this year, compared with only 35,000 tons in the same period last year. Argentina's soybean oil exports have also been at a high level since Q4 last year, mainly exported to India [31]. 3.2.4生柴 (Biodiesel) - After Trump took office, the RINs price dropped, and biodiesel producers faced losses. However, with the policy change, the RINs price rose, and biodiesel production became profitable, stabilizing the soybean oil price [36]. - Due to pessimistic policy expectations and low blending profits, the use of soybean oil in biodiesel decreased, and its proportion was lower than other raw materials for the first time. The production of BD and RD in January 2025 also decreased significantly [40]. - The market expects the EPA to raise the 2026 biodiesel RVO obligation to 55 - 575 million gallons, creating a raw material demand increase of about 8 - 9 million tons. However, US tariff policies will lead to a raw material shortage of about 6 million tons [43]. 3.2.5生物柴油 (Biodiesel) - The 45Z subsidy model mainly targets domestic producers. In extreme cases, about 2 - 3 million tons of imported canola oil and about 2 - 3 million tons of UCO may be replaced. The new policy and tariffs will create a raw material shortage of 9 - 10 million tons. If all are replaced by soybean oil, an additional 50 million tons of soybean crushing is needed, but the US soybean crushing capacity is insufficient [47]. 3.3国内市场 (Domestic Market) 3.3.1近端到港偏低，远月到港充足 (Low Immediate Arrivals, Sufficient Distant - Month Arrivals) - Due to low arrivals in Q1, the domestic soybean inventory has declined and is approaching a turning point. With the good harvest of Brazilian soybeans, the arrivals from April to May are expected to be earlier and larger, and the supply from Q2 to Q3 is expected to be sufficient [50]. 3.3.2逐步去库，但供应仍宽松 (Gradual De - stocking, but Supply Remains Loose) - The three major domestic oils are in the process of de - stocking. Palm oil inventory is relatively tight, rapeseed oil is relatively loose, and soybean oil inventory is around the historical average. With the arrival of a large number of soybeans and the increase in the crushing rate, soybean oil inventory is expected to start increasing at the end of April, but the process may be slow [53]. 3.3.3对棕榈油替代明显，但消费总量一般 (Obvious Substitution for Palm Oil, but General Consumption Volume) - Soybean oil has significantly substituted palm oil, but due to limited population growth and domestic consumption downgrade, the total vegetable oil consumption has little increase. In Q2, soybean oil consumption is expected to improve, and the substitution for palm oil in the catering sector will be more obvious, with the apparent demand increasing by about 100,000 - 200,000 tons per month compared to last year [57]. 3.4二季度观点汇总 (Summary of Second - Quarter Views) 3.4.1国际市场 (International Market) - Raw material side: In Q2 and Q3, the supply mainly comes from Brazilian soybeans, so the impact of US soybeans on domestic supply will be felt in Q4 and Q1 of 2026. The change in the global soybean trade flow may increase China's soybean import costs [59]. - Demand side: The export demand for US soybean oil will be affected, but the increase in domestic demand due to policy changes will offset the impact of the decline in exports, supporting the international oil price [59]. 3.4.2国内市场 (Domestic Market) - Raw material side: Starting from April, the arrival of a large number of Brazilian soybeans will make the domestic soybean supply sufficient from Q2 to Q3. The supply shortage caused by US soybeans may appear after the supply center shifts from Brazil to the US, which will be more obvious in the 01 contract [59]. - Demand side: The domestic soybean oil inventory is not tight, and the supply will remain abundant after the increase in soybean crushing. The demand has not been significantly boosted, and the soybean - palm oil spot price spread is expected to remain inverted until the arrival of more palm oil reduces its price [59]. 3.4.3策略建议 (Strategy Recommendations) - It is expected that the price spread of the 09 contract of soybean - palm oil will remain inverted in the second quarter and may approach parity in the third quarter. It is recommended to implement strategies to widen the spread of the 09 and 01 contracts of soybean - palm oil and the 9 - 1 reverse spread strategy. - For single - side trading, pay attention to the support of palm oil prices. In the short - term, it is recommended to short at high prices, and long positions in the 01 contract can be considered at the end of the second quarter.