Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core Views - Palm oil is in a relatively high position in the bottom - range oscillation. There are uncertainties in the long - term direction, and short - term operations are recommended. A clearer buying opportunity is expected in February - March [5][7]. - Soybean oil is expected to run in a range, waiting for the overall stabilization of the oil and fat sector and the theme resonance in the first quarter [8][9]. - Soybean meal prices may rebound after the negative factors have been digested [18][24]. - Soybean No. 1's spot price is stable with a slight upward trend, and the futures price may rebound and oscillate [19][24]. - Corn is expected to be oscillating strongly [38][43]. - Sugar is in a low - level consolidation phase both internationally and domestically [61][63][88]. - Cotton is continuing its adjustment trend, and Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be oscillating strongly [89][104]. - Hog prices are expected to oscillate and adjust, and the futures market is approaching the stage of double - increase in supply and demand [105][107]. - Peanuts are in a weak oscillation, and the futures are short - term weak. Attention should be paid to the selling pressure after the Spring Festival [123][124]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Palm Oil - **Last week's view and logic**: The news affected the palm oil market, causing strong fluctuations. The 05 contract rose 0.35% weekly. The lack of South American weather speculation limited the upward drive of US soybeans, and soybean oil followed the oil and fat sector to oscillate in a range, with the 05 contract rising 0.58% weekly [4]. - **This week's view and logic**: MPOB's December data showed an inventory increase. In January, the inventory is expected to decline. However, the uncertainty of Indonesia's B50 policy and other factors make the long - term direction unclear. The market is in a bottom - range oscillation, and short - term operations are advisable [5][7]. Soybean Oil - **Last week's view and logic**: Lack of South American weather speculation limited the upward drive of US soybeans, and soybean oil followed the oil and fat sector to oscillate in a range, with the 05 contract rising 0.58% weekly [4]. - **This week's view and logic**: The US biodiesel policy may increase the demand for US soybean oil, but the upward space still needs to be carefully evaluated. US soybeans are expected to oscillate and stabilize in January. Domestic soybean oil may continue the de - stocking process until March - April [8]. Soybean Meal - **Last week's situation**: US soybean futures first fell and then rose. Domestic soybean meal futures were weak, and soybean No. 1 futures oscillated. The 1 - month USDA report was bearish, but there were also positive factors such as Chinese procurement [19]. - **Next week's prediction**: After the negative factors have been digested, soybean meal prices may rebound [24]. Soybean No. 1 - **Last week's situation**: Domestic soybean No. 1 futures oscillated. The spot price was stable with a slight upward trend, but the market was affected by the bearish atmosphere of the soybean market [19]. - **Next week's prediction**: The futures price may rebound and oscillate, and it should pay attention to the sentiment of the soybean market [24]. Corn - **Market review**: In the week of January 16, the spot price of corn rose, and the futures market also increased. The CBOT corn fell, wheat prices were stable with reduced auctions, and corn starch inventory decreased [38][39][40][41][42]. - **Market outlook**: Corn is expected to be oscillating strongly, and the price callback space before the Spring Festival is limited [43]. Sugar - **This week's market review**: Internationally, the New York raw sugar price increased slightly, and the net long position of funds increased. Domestically, the spot price was stable, and the futures price fell slightly. The production of major sugar - producing countries showed different trends [61][62]. - **Next week's market outlook**: Internationally and domestically, sugar is in a low - level consolidation phase. Attention should be paid to the production and export rhythm of Brazil, the production and policies of India, and domestic import policies [63][88]. Cotton - **Market situation**: ICE cotton first rose and then fell. Domestic cotton futures and spot prices continued to adjust. The supply is sufficient, and the downstream demand is in the off - season [89]. - **Operation suggestion**: USDA's adjustment of cotton data strengthened the support of ICE cotton, but it still lacks fundamental drive. Domestic cotton is expected to wait for the determination of phased support after the Spring Festival [104]. Hogs - **This week's market review**: The spot price of hogs was strong, and the futures price oscillated strongly. The supply was tight, and the demand was stable [105]. - **Next week's market outlook**: Hog prices are expected to oscillate and adjust. The market is approaching the stage of double - increase in supply and demand. Attention should be paid to the spot price confirmation around the Laba Festival [106][107]. Peanuts - **Market review**: The spot price of peanuts was stable, and the futures price fell. The supply was expected to be abundant, and the terminal consumption was insufficient [123]. - **Market outlook**: The spot market is in a pattern of "peak season without prosperity". The futures are short - term weak, and attention should be paid to the selling pressure after the Spring Festival and the changes in oil mill acquisition strategies and imported peanut arrivals [124].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil is currently in a relatively high position within the bottom - range oscillation. Although Malaysia will enter the de - stocking period, if the production cut in Malaysia in February is not significant enough under the uncertainty of Indonesia's B50 policy, the fundamental situation of palm oil is not favorable, and it currently lacks the driving force to rise above 9000 yuan/ton. More definite long - entry opportunities for palm oil are expected in February - March. In the short term, it is recommended to focus on short - term operations, and there may be a second bottom - building if there are no more positive news [2][4][6] - Soybean oil is currently in a range - bound operation. The U.S. soybean is expected to show an oscillatory stabilization trend in January. In the first quarter, attention should be paid to the driving force that domestic spot prices can provide for the domestic soybean system's spread. Soybean oil is waiting for the thematic resonance of the entire oil and fat sector after it stabilizes [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Views and Logic - **Palm oil**: Last week, the palm oil market was highly volatile due to changing news. After the MPOB report on Monday fulfilled the expectation of a rebound after the release of negative factors, on Tuesday, news about the uncertainty of Indonesia's B50 implementation hit a major positive factor for the palm oil market. With the weakening of geopolitical impacts, international oil prices dropped rapidly, and palm oil followed suit, falling to the first support range of 8400 - 8500. On Thursday night, news about the approaching implementation of U.S. biodiesel policy led to a rebound in U.S. soybean oil, and palm oil sentiment improved. The palm oil 05 contract rose 0.35% last week [1] - **Soybean oil**: Lacking South American weather - related speculation, the upward driving force of U.S. soybeans was limited. It mainly oscillated within a range following the oil and fat sector. The soybean oil 05 contract rose 0.58% last week [1] 3.2 This Week's Views and Logic 3.2.1 Palm oil - **Supply and demand data**: MPOB released December palm oil supply - demand data, showing a 7.58% increase in inventory to 3.05 million tons and a 5.46% decrease in production to 1.8298 million tons compared to the previous month, in line with UOB and MPOA estimates. Although the inventory is high, the market had already priced in the December inventory peak. With the 18% production cut shown by SPPOMA in January and the 18% increase in exports in the first 15 days according to ITS, the inventory in January is expected to return to around 2.8 million tons. However, if the month - on - month production cut in January continues to be less than 10%, the annual production in 2026 may increase by 100,000 tons per month on average, releasing continuous supply pressure [2] - **Indonesia's policy impact**: Indonesia's B50 policy implementation is uncertain, and the government aims to fully implement B40 first. The advancement of B50 depends on technology and POGO levels. There is a fundamental logic for the POGO spread to shrink to $250/ton. Raising Indonesia's export tax may only stimulate Malaysia's exports in the short term but will increase pressure on Indonesia's inventory. Recently, the price difference between Indonesia and Malaysia has shrunk, the price of fruit bunches in North Sumatra has weakened, and Indonesia's refining profit has remained high, indicating a marginal improvement in Indonesia's willingness to sell, but it is not clear whether the selling pressure has increased significantly [2] - **Sales area situation**: In the sales areas, India's CPO import profit has declined recently. Although the previous good profit stimulated India's purchases, it was not enough to cause a short - squeeze situation since June. In China, the import profit gap has widened, and the release of the origin's pressure is slow [2] - **Outlook and strategy**: Palm oil is currently in a relatively high position within the bottom - range oscillation. The more definite long - entry opportunity needs to wait until February - March. In February, if Malaysia's production is less than 1.4 million tons, there will be a rapid de - stocking. In March, the release of the U.S. 2026 biodiesel policy will make the trading process more certain. From last year's rainfall pattern, Malaysia's production from April - May is expected to decline year - on - year, which may also be a potential driving factor. Currently, the valuation is not low, the driving force is not strong, and there may be a second bottom - building without more positive news. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations [2][4][6] 3.2.2 Soybean oil - **U.S. biodiesel policy impact**: Reuters reported that the Trump administration is actively promoting the 2026 biofuel policy, expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March. It is considered to set the volume range of D4 biomass diesel between 5.2 - 5.6 billion gallons and abandon the plan to punish the import of renewable fuels and their raw materials. This news implies a possible increase in the RVO level, and the expected annual industrial demand for U.S. soybean oil has increased from 7 million tons to 8 - 9 million tons. However, considering the low energy prices and the possible inconsistent statements from the EPA, the upward space of U.S. soybean oil still needs to be viewed cautiously [5] - **U.S. soybean situation**: As of this week, the growth of Brazilian soybeans is generally good with a positive production outlook, while the core production areas in Argentina are dry, and attention should be paid to the later rainfall forecasts. The positive outlook for South American soybeans has put pressure on the U.S. soybean market. If Argentina does not experience a drought later, it is difficult for the CBOT soybeans in January to rebound significantly, and it is expected to show an oscillatory stabilization trend [5] - **Domestic situation**: China's customs may accelerate the release of imported soybeans in the first quarter, and the state - reserve auction of imported soybeans is progressing well, which weakens the spread sentiment. However, there will be a shortage of soybean arrivals from March - April, which may support the domestic soybean - related spot and spread to oscillate strongly. The short - term driving force of U.S. soybeans is limited. Due to insufficient export demand and arrivals, domestic soybean oil can maintain a monthly de - stocking process until March - April next year. In the first quarter, attention should be paid to the driving force that domestic spot prices can provide for the spread. Soybean oil is currently in a range - bound operation, waiting for the thematic resonance of the entire oil and fat sector after it stabilizes [5][6] 3.3 [盘面基本行情数据] (Basic Market Data of Futures) - **Futures prices and changes**: The opening price of the palm oil continuous contract was 8,630 yuan/ton, the highest was 8,866 yuan/ton, the lowest was 8,490 yuan/ton, the closing price was 8,674 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.35%. The opening price of the soybean oil continuous contract was 7,970 yuan/ton, the highest was 8,048 yuan/ton, the lowest was 7,874 yuan/ton, the closing price was 8,016 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.58%. The opening price of the rapeseed oil continuous contract was 9,025 yuan/ton, the highest was 9,158 yuan/ton, the lowest was 8,806 yuan/ton, the closing price was 9,063 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.81%. The opening price of the Malaysian palm oil continuous contract was 4,042 ringgit/ton, the highest was 4,147 ringgit/ton, the lowest was 3,968 ringgit/ton, the closing price was 4,056 ringgit/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.45%. The opening price of the CBOT soybean oil continuous contract was 49.80 cents/pound, the highest was 53.48 cents/pound, the lowest was 49.80 cents/pound, the closing price was 52.51 cents/pound, with a weekly increase of 5.74% [9] - **Trading volume and position changes**: The trading volume of the palm oil continuous contract was 2,707,371 lots, with an increase of 439,942 lots; the position was 415,079 lots, with an increase of 14,526 lots. The trading volume of the soybean oil continuous contract was 2,267,429 lots, with an increase of 168,935 lots; the position was 716,141 lots, with an increase of 34,480 lots. The trading volume of the rapeseed oil continuous contract was 999,966 lots, with an increase of 153,895 lots; the position was 269,628 lots, with an increase of 24,507 lots [9] - **Price spread and warehouse receipt changes**: The closing price of the rapeseed - soybean 05 spread was 1,047 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.10% compared to last week; the soybean - palm oil 05 spread was - 658 yuan/ton, with an increase of 4.36%; the palm oil 5 - 9 spread was 12 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 89.29%; the soybean oil 5 - 9 spread was 130 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 16.67%; the rapeseed oil 5 - 9 spread was 53 yuan/ton, with an increase of 152.38%. The number of palm oil warehouse receipts was 1,148 lots, a decrease of 100 lots compared to last week; the number of soybean oil warehouse receipts was 27,959 lots, a decrease of 1,467 lots; the number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 2,142 lots, an increase of 100 lots [9] 3.4 [油脂基本面核心数据] (Core Fundamental Data of Oils and Fats) - **Malaysian palm oil**: The production in December was 1.8298 million tons, with a 5.46% month - on - month decrease. The inventory increased 7.58% to 3.05 million tons. In January, SPPOMA showed an 18% production cut, and ITS showed an 18% increase in exports in the first 15 days. The inventory in January is expected to return to around 2.8 million tons [2] - **Indonesian palm oil**: The end - of - year inventory is expected to return to a neutral - to - wide level. Recently, the price difference between Indonesia and Malaysia has shrunk, the price of fruit bunches in North Sumatra has weakened, and the refining profit has remained high, indicating a marginal improvement in the willingness to sell [2][12] - **Export and price spread**: ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 15 were 727,440 tons, a 18.64% increase compared to the same period last month. The POGO spread has been shrinking [12] - **Sales area data**: India's palm oil import profit is lower than that of soybean and sunflower oils, and the CNF price difference between soybean and palm oil in India has increased. The EU's cumulative palm oil imports in 2026 decreased by 10,000 tons, and the cumulative imports of four major oils and fats decreased by 40,000 tons [13][14] - **Base - spread data**: The palm oil (South China) basis to the 05 contract is - 50, and the soybean oil (Jiangsu) basis has strengthened oscillatory [13]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The near - month soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly, while the far - month contracts may remain weak due to the bearish effect of the USDA report. If the South American harvest progresses well, there is a possibility of further decline [1]. - For the oil sector, there is a possibility of negative factors being exhausted. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. 3) Summary by Related Content Soybean Meal - CONAB predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season will reach a record 176.124 million tons, 1.08 million tons lower than last month's forecast but 2.7% higher than the previous year. Export volume is expected to reach 111.79 million tons, slightly lower than last month's forecast. Imports are expected to drop to 500,000 tons, the same as last month's forecast and lower than the 2024/25 season. Ending stocks are adjusted down to 11.3 million tons [1]. - On January 15, US private exporters reported sales of 204,000 tons of US soybeans to China and 545,000 tons to unknown destinations, mostly for delivery in the 2025/26 season [1]. - The market is unclear about the later state - reserve release schedule. Recent auctions of imported soybeans all had premium transactions, indicating a supply gap and strong short - term demand [1]. Oils - The Trump administration plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota by early March, keeping it close to the initial proposal and abandoning the plan to penalize renewable fuel and raw material imports. The US EPA is considering a 2026 biodiesel production of 5.2 to 5.6 billion gallons [2]. - Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand said that negotiations on reducing Canadian canola tariffs are ongoing and productive [2]. - The uncertainty of Indonesia's B50 policy caused palm oil prices to decline slightly. The rapeseed oil market is waiting for the outcome of China - Canada negotiations on rapeseed imports. The US biofuel policy is becoming clearer, providing psychological support for US fuel merchants [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ☆☆☆ [1] - Doupo: ★★★ [1] - Douyou: ★★★ [1] - Zonglvyou: ★★★ [1] - Caipo: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caiyou: ☆☆☆ [1] - Yumi: ☆☆☆ [1] - Shengzhu: ★★★ [1] - Jidan: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall agricultural product market shows different trends, with some products in a state of shock adjustment, while others are affected by factors such as policies, weather, and supply - demand relationships [2][3][5] - Different investment strategies are proposed for various agricultural products based on their current situations and future trends [2][5][8] Summary by Related Categories Soybean (Douyi) - Domestic soybeans are in a state of shock adjustment with a slowdown in the decline. The sales volume and price of Jilin trade - grain soybeans are good. The supply of high - protein soybeans is tight, but the demand is relatively cautious after price increases. Short - term attention should be paid to policies and the spot market [2] Soybean and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures continue to decline. Brazil's 2026 soybean production is expected to increase by 2.5% compared to 2025. The US government is weighing biofuel quotas. South American bumper harvest expectations have returned as the main trading logic, and attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American weather [2] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The US government's upcoming announcement of biofuel blending obligations has boosted US soybean oil and domestic soybean oil, with palm oil following. The upper limit of soybean and palm oil prices is constrained by the expansion of global oil supplies, while the lower limit is supported by the expansion of global biodiesel demand. Overall, they are in a range - bound state, and attention should be paid to the risk of boundary failure [3] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed - related futures show a pattern of strong oil and weak meal. Rapeseed oil prices are affected by US biofuel policy expectations. The rapeseed market faces a contradiction between short - term supply shortage and medium - term import policy uncertainties. It is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see attitude [5] Corn - Dalian corn futures opened high and closed low, while the national corn spot price was stable with a slight increase. CNGC's increased procurement has boosted market confidence. Short - term futures will be mainly in a wide - range shock, and seasonal risks should be noted later [6] Live Pigs - Near - month live pig contracts are in shock, while far - month contracts are significantly weaker. The spot market is stronger in the north and weaker in the south, with a slight overall increase. As the Spring Festival approaches, the slaughter rhythm may accelerate, and pig prices are expected to have a low point in the first half of next year [7] Eggs - The egg futures market shows a pattern of strong near - term and weak far - term. The spot price has risen significantly. Low chicken - chick replenishment in the past few months will lead to a low number of newly - laid hens in the first half of 2026. With the supply shrinking and demand rising, it is recommended to adopt a long - low - allocation strategy or a long - near - short - far strategy for the first - half - year contracts in 2026 [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US job market remains resilient, with initial jobless claims below 200,000 and continuing claims at a low level. The US and Taiwan, China, reached a trade and investment agreement, and the US stock market closed higher. Gold, silver, and copper prices retreated, and oil prices fell about 4%. Domestically, December's financial data was better than expected, but the full - year new RMB loans in 2025 hit a seven - year low. The central bank cut the interest rates of structural tools by 25BP. The A - share market entered a slope correction period after significant volume increases [2][3]. - For precious metals, after the suspension of tariff concerns, prices are expected to oscillate at high levels. Copper prices may adjust in the short - term but will likely see a long - term increase in the valuation center. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at high levels due to mixed macro news and weak downstream demand. Alumina prices are under pressure and may oscillate weakly. Cast aluminum prices are under pressure at high levels. Zinc and lead prices are expected to oscillate at high levels. Tin prices may shift to high - level oscillations [4][6][8][10][11]. - For steel products, steel prices are generally oscillating due to limited fundamental drivers. Iron ore prices are expected to be under pressure and oscillate due to strong supply and weak demand. Coking coal and coke prices are expected to continue oscillating due to weak fundamental drivers. For agricultural products, soybean meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term, and palm oil prices are expected to oscillate within a range [19][20][21][24][26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomy - Overseas: The US job market is resilient, with initial jobless claims below 200,000 and continuing claims at a low level. The US and Taiwan, China, reached a trade and investment agreement, reducing tariffs from 20% to 15% in exchange for semiconductor - related investments in the US. The US stock market closed higher, the US dollar index rose above 99.3, precious metals prices retreated, and oil prices fell about 4% [2]. - Domestic: December's financial data was better than expected, but the full - year new RMB loans in 2025 hit a seven - year low. The central bank cut the interest rates of structural tools by 25BP and retained the possibility of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The A - share market entered a slope correction period after significant volume increases [3]. Precious Metals - The Trump administration decided not to impose full - scale tariffs on key minerals such as silver and platinum. After the suspension of tariff concerns, precious metals prices oscillated at high levels. Market expectations suggest that the Fed will maintain interest rates in the January 27 - 28 meeting and cut rates at least twice in 2026 [4][5]. Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract oscillated at a high level, and the London copper found support at $12,800. The domestic electrolytic copper spot market had weak trading. The LME and COMEX inventories increased. Trump may cancel tariffs on rare earths, lithium, and key minerals. The market expects the US to impose a 15% import tariff on refined copper from 2027. In the medium - term, the structural imbalance in fundamentals will raise the valuation center of London copper [6][7]. Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,320 yuan/ton, down 0.59%. The LME aluminum closed at $3,171.5/ton, down 0.56%. The electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory and domestic mainstream consumption area aluminum rod inventory increased. The strong US employment data supported the US dollar index, and the domestic "structural interest rate cut" showed moderately loose policy characteristics. The downstream demand for aluminum was weak, and the social inventory continued to accumulate, putting pressure on high - level aluminum prices [8][9]. Alumina - The alumina futures main contract closed at 2,766 yuan/ton, down 1.21%. The spot alumina national average price was 2,671 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. Alumina enterprises have not significantly reduced production, and the supply - demand surplus continues. The inventory continues to increase, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly under pressure [10]. Cast Aluminum - The cast aluminum alloy futures main contract closed at 23,070 yuan/ton, down 0.82%. The supply - side profit inversion restricts production, and the downstream demand is weak due to the seasonal off - season. The cost side has slightly loosened, and the price is expected to adjust under pressure [11]. Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract 2603 rose and then fell during the day and oscillated narrowly at night. The LME zinc oscillated narrowly. The LME will not accept certain brands of zinc for delivery from April 14, 2026, but the substantial impact is limited. The downstream consumption is further suppressed, and the social inventory is stagnant at around 118,000 tons. The zinc price is expected to shift to high - level oscillations [12][13]. Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract 2603 oscillated during the day and shifted upward slightly at night. The LME lead oscillated strongly. The LME will not accept certain brands of lead for delivery from April 14, 2026, but the substantial impact is limited. The social inventory increased to 32,500 tons, and the inventory's support for the lead price weakened. The lead price is expected to oscillate widely due to the combination of multiple and short factors [14][15]. Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract 2603 oscillated at a high level during the day and fell at night. The LME tin fell slightly. On January 15, the tin registered warehouse receipts increased by 2,419 tons. The exchange adjusted the trading margin ratio, daily limit range, and trading volume limit for tin to cool down the over - heated market. The tin price is expected to shift to high - level oscillations [16][17][18]. Steel Products - Steel futures oscillated. The five major steel products' supply increased slightly, the total inventory decreased slightly, and the apparent consumption increased. The steel price is expected to oscillate due to limited fundamental drivers [19]. Iron Ore - Iron ore futures oscillated and adjusted slightly. The demand side is restricted by the off - season, and the supply side will see a concentrated arrival of iron ore due to the end - of - year mine production rush. The price is expected to be under pressure and oscillate [20]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke futures oscillated. The coking enterprises' profitability shrank, and the production slowed down. The upstream coal mines resumed production, but the coking coal output was not high. The downstream finished products had high inventory and limited steel mill profits, and the demand for coke price increases was weak. The price is expected to continue oscillating [21]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean meal 05 contract closed down 0.33%, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract closed down 0.74%. The US December soybean crushing volume increased by 8.9% year - on - year. The US biodiesel policy may be finalized in early March. The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [22][23][24]. Palm Oil - The palm oil 05 contract closed down 2.03%. The Malaysian palm oil export volume increased from January 1 - 15. The US biodiesel policy is expected to be finalized in early March, boosting the US soybean oil price. The palm oil price is expected to oscillate within a range [25][26].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The sentiment in the oil and fat sector has warmed up as the US biodiesel policy is approaching implementation. However, the rebound of soybean oil is limited due to insufficient themes related to US soybeans [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil主力 closed at 8,578 yuan/ton during the day session with a -1.94% change and 8,646 yuan/ton at night with a 0.79% change; soybean oil主力 closed at 7,938 yuan/ton during the day with a -0.78% change and 8,020 yuan/ton at night with a 1.03% change; rapeseed oil主力 closed at 8,828 yuan/ton during the day with a -1.35% change and 9,107 yuan/ton at night with a 3.16% change. The Malaysian palm oil主力 closed at 3,980 ringgit/ton during the day with a -1.56% change and 4,042 ringgit/ton at night with a 1.56% change. CBOT soybean oil主力 closed at 52.91 cents/pound with a 3.79% change [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of palm oil主力 was 534,066 lots with an increase of 2,265 lots, and the open interest was 429,816 lots with a decrease of 8,279 lots. The trading volume of soybean oil主力 was 241,830 lots with an increase of 4,046 lots, and the open interest was 712,266 lots with an increase of 3,882 lots. The trading volume of rapeseed oil主力 was 259,502 lots with an increase of 34,010 lots, and the open interest was 258,828 lots with an increase of 12,208 lots [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,650 yuan/ton with a decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,530 yuan/ton with a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,750 yuan/ton with a decrease of 150 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,030 dollars/ton with a decrease of 5 dollars/ton [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 72 yuan/ton, soybean oil in Guangdong was 592 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 922 yuan/ton. The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures主力 was 250 yuan/ton (previous trading day), and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures主力 was - 640 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Trump administration is advancing the biofuel policy. It is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March, keeping it roughly at the current proposed level. The range of biodiesel quota is being weighed between 5.2 billion and 5.6 billion gallons, and the current proposal is 5.6 billion gallons. The plan to penalize imports of renewable fuels and their raw materials is expected to be abandoned [2][3]. - According to NOPA data, the US soybean oil inventory in December 2025 was 1.642 billion pounds, lower than the market expectation of 1.686 billion pounds and higher than 1.513 billion pounds in November 2025. The US soybean crushing volume in December 2025 was 224.991 million bushels, slightly higher than the market expectation of 224.809 million bushels and higher than 216.041 million bushels in November 2025 [3]. - According to CONAB's January forecast, the 2025/26 soybean production in Brazil is expected to reach 176.1244 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6439 million tons or 2.7% [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is both 1 [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the document. Core Views of the Report - The central bank has lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The bond market fluctuations are concentrated in the ultra - long - term, and the A - share market is expected to maintain a stable growth trend in 2026. The market sentiment of treasury bond futures remains oscillating and bearish since mid - last year, with short - term resilience and a possible slight recovery in the long - term [7][9]. - Affected by the expected US biodiesel policy, rapeseed oil is expected to shift from a recent weak trend to a wide - range oscillating trend. The valuation of PX has returned with the cost - end adjustment, and the supply is expected to gradually loosen. PTA's polyester production cut plan has increased, and the actual implementation needs attention. MEG's supply pressure has eased, and the short - term is expected to rebound strongly [10][81]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Treasury Bonds - Central bank policies: Lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, with the one - year re - loan rate dropping to 1.25%. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [7]. - Market analysis: The bond market fluctuations are concentrated in the ultra - long - term. Treasury bond futures maintain an oscillating and bearish view since mid - last year. Short - term has resilience, and the long - term may have a slight recovery. It is recommended to conduct 30 - 10 spread compression trading and long - position substitution in the short - term, and continue to recommend hedging at high levels, long - spread trading, and positive spread trading in the medium - term [9]. 2. Rapeseed Oil - Policy impact: The expected US biodiesel policy is expected to boost global oil and fat consumption and support the international rapeseed oil price. The domestic rapeseed oil market is in a situation of strong current reality but weak expectations, and it is expected to shift from a weak trend to a wide - range oscillating trend [10]. 3. PX, PTA, MEG - PX: The valuation has returned with the cost - end adjustment, and the supply is expected to gradually loosen. Overseas processing fee hedging has entered the market, and domestic PX factories' hedging positions have increased. The downstream PTA and polyester's future production is expected to decline [81]. - PTA: The processing fee is at a high level. The supply side's production increase space is limited, and the polyester production cut plan has further increased. The actual implementation needs to be observed. The unilateral price has limited downward space [82]. - MEG: The short - term is expected to rebound strongly, and short positions should be closed. Attention should be paid to the spring maintenance implementation of coal - chemical ethylene glycol plants, and long the 5 - 9 spread at low levels [82]. 4. Other Commodities - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded [16]. - Copper: The strengthening of the US dollar restricts price increases [16]. - Zinc: It is easy to rise but difficult to fall [16]. - Lead: The decrease in LME inventory supports the price [16]. - Tin: It is consolidating at a high level [16]. - Aluminum: Slightly under pressure [16]. - Alumina: Oscillating downward [16]. - Platinum: Oscillating upward [16]. - Palladium: Following the upward oscillation [16]. - Nickel: There is a game between industrial and secondary funds, and it operates in a wide - range oscillation [16]. - Stainless steel: The price center of gravity is lifted by ferronickel, and the market is speculating on Indonesian policies [16]. - Lithium carbonate: With inventory reduction and increased purchasing willingness, there may be support at the bottom [16]. - Industrial silicon: Downstream production cuts, and it is advisable to short at high levels [16]. - Polysilicon: In an oscillating state [16]. - Iron ore: The valuation is high, and it is necessary to be cautious about chasing up [16]. - Rebar: Oscillating repeatedly [16]. - Hot - rolled coil: Oscillating repeatedly [16]. - Ferrosilicon: The raw material cost is loosening, and it oscillates in a wide range [16]. - Silicomanganese: The demand side is slightly tightening, and it oscillates in a wide range [16]. - Coke: Oscillating at a high level [16]. - Coking coal: Oscillating at a high level [16]. - Steam coal: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price is adjusted narrowly in the short term [16]. - Log: Oscillating repeatedly [16]. - Rubber: Oscillating weakly [16]. - Synthetic rubber: Oscillating at a high level [16]. - LLDPE: The production of standard products remains at a low level, and spot transactions have weakened [16]. - PP: The monomer prices continue to diverge, and the cost support is relatively strong [16]. - Caustic soda: Oscillating weakly [16]. - Pulp: Oscillating weakly [16]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable [16]. - Methanol: Oscillating and falling following the commodity index [16]. - Urea: Oscillating in the short term and the central price is expected to rise in the medium term [16]. - Styrene: Oscillating in the short term [16]. - Soda ash: The spot market has little change [16]. - LPG: The short - term supply is tight, and geopolitical disturbances are strong [128]. - Propylene: The spot supply and demand are tightening, and the trend is strong [129]. - PVC: Oscillating weakly [16]. - Fuel oil: The night - session decline has paused the upward trend [16]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Turning to decline, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market continues to shrink [16]. - Container Freight Index (European Line): Oscillating weakly; pay attention to the resumption of shipping expectations for the far - month contracts [16]. - Short - fiber: In a short - term oscillating market [16]. - Bottle chips: In a short - term oscillating market [16]. - Offset printing paper: Consider closing short positions opportunistically [16]. - Pure benzene: Oscillating mainly in the short term [16]. - Palm oil: The sentiment in the oil and fat sector has warmed up as the US biodiesel policy is approaching implementation [16]. - Soybean oil: The rebound height is limited due to the lack of soybean - related themes [16]. - Soybean meal: Wait and see, pending the progress of China - Canada trade consultations [16]. - Soybean: Rebounding and oscillating [16]. - Corn: Pay attention to the spot price [16]. - Sugar: Mainly operating weakly [16]. - Cotton: Continuing the adjustment trend [16]. - Eggs: The spot market is profitable, and the sentiment for far - month contracts has weakened [16]. - Hogs: The demand expectation has been priced in advance [16]. - Peanuts: Oscillating [16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: The U.S. biofuel policy is approaching implementation, leading to a warming sentiment in the oil and fat sector [2][4]. - **Soybean Oil**: There are insufficient themes for U.S. soybeans, limiting the rebound height [2][4]. - **Soybean Meal**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and await the progress of China - Canada trade consultations [2][8]. - **Soybean No.1**: Rebound and fluctuate [2][8]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot market [2][11]. - **Sugar**: Predominantly operate weakly [2][15]. - **Cotton**: Continue the adjustment trend [2][20]. - **Eggs**: Spot market is profitable, but the sentiment for far - month contracts is weakening [2][25]. - **Hogs**: Demand expectations are priced in advance [2][28]. - **Peanuts**: Run in a fluctuating manner [2][32]. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 8,578 yuan/ton with a - 1.94% change, and night - session closing price was 8,646 yuan/ton with a 0.79% change; soybean oil's day - session closing price was 7,938 yuan/ton with a - 0.78% change, and night - session closing price was 8,020 yuan/ton with a 1.03% change. Spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Trump administration is advancing the biofuel policy, expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March, with the quota roughly maintained at the current proposal level. The U.S. 2025 December soybean crushing volume was 2.24991 billion bushels, and the soybean oil inventory was 1.642 billion pounds. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to reach 1.761244 billion tons, a 2.7% increase year - on - year [5][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil trend intensity is 1, and soybean oil trend intensity is 1 [7]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamentals**: DCE soybean No.1 2605's day - session closing price was 4333 yuan/ton with a + 0.09% change, and night - session closing price was 4351 yuan/ton with a + 0.65% change; DCE soybean meal 2605's day - session closing price was 2740 yuan/ton with a - 0.33% change, and night - session closing price was 2744 yuan/ton with a - 0.15% change. Spot prices of soybean meal in different regions had different changes [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 15, CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to strong export and domestic crushing demand, and the rise in U.S. soybean oil futures. Private exporters reported sales of U.S. soybeans to China and unknown destinations. The Canadian Prime Minister will meet with Chinese leaders, and progress has been made in China - Canada trade consultations [8][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal trend intensity is 0, and soybean No.1 trend intensity is 0 [10]. Corn - **Fundamentals**: The day - session closing price of C2603 was 2,295 yuan/ton with a 0.83% change, and night - session closing price was 2,294 yuan/ton with a - 0.04% change; the day - session closing price of C2605 was 2,283 yuan/ton with a 0.31% change, and night - session closing price was 2,283 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn bulk shipping port prices were basically stable, and Guangdong Shekou's bulk shipping price increased by 10 yuan/ton. Northeast deep - processing corn prices were stable with a slight increase, and North China's corn prices rose slightly [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0 [14]. Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The raw sugar price was 14.57 cents/pound with a - 0.11 change, the mainstream spot price was 5350 yuan/ton with a 0 change, and the futures main contract price was 5280 yuan/ton with a - 19 change [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, India's sugar production increased by 24% year - on - year, Brazil's December exports increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and China's November sugar imports decreased by 90,000 tons. CAOC predicts that China's 25/26 sugar production will be 1.17 billion tons, consumption will be 1.57 billion tons, and imports will be 0.5 billion tons. ISO predicts a 163,000 - ton global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season [15][16][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is - 1 [18]. Cotton - **Fundamentals**: CF2605's day - session closing price was 14,675 yuan/ton with a - 0.91% change, and night - session closing price was 14720 yuan/ton with a 0.31% change. Spot prices of cotton in different regions decreased slightly [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading was average, and the spot sales basis was stable. Pure - cotton yarn prices were stable with a slight decrease, and the trading atmosphere was weak. ICE cotton futures fell slightly due to the strengthening of the U.S. dollar [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [22]. Eggs - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of egg 2602 was 2,958 yuan/500 kg with a - 0.94% change, and the closing price of egg 2603 was 3,007 yuan/500 kg with a - 0.56% change. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [26]. Hogs - **Fundamentals**: Henan's spot price was 13080 yuan/ton, Sichuan's was 12900 yuan/ton, and Guangdong's was 13060 yuan/ton. Futures prices of different contracts had different changes [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Hog trend intensity is - 1 [30]. Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of PK603 was 7,836 yuan/ton with a - 0.13% change, and the closing price of PK605 was 7,830 yuan/ton with a - 0.46% change. Spot prices in different regions were stable [32]. - **Spot Market Focus**: Peanut prices in Henan, Jilin, Liaoning, and Shandong were basically stable, with some regions showing a slight increase [33]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil: Doubts about Indonesia's B50 policy, and the POGO is expected to shrink [2][4] - Soybean oil: Limited momentum for US soybeans, and attention should be paid to the spill - over effects of crude oil [2][4] - Soybean meal: Range - bound, waiting for the progress of the China - Canada trade event [2][8] - Soybean No.1: Rebound and fluctuate [2][8] - Corn: Focus on the spot market [2][11] - Sugar: Mainly show a weak trend [2][15] - Cotton: Continue the adjustment trend [2][19] - Eggs: Spot market is profitable, and sentiment for far - month contracts is weakening [2][25] - Hogs: Demand expectations are priced in ahead of time [2][28] - Peanuts: Fluctuate within a range [2][32] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Palm oil and Soybean oil - **Fundamental data**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 8,748 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.34%, and night - session closing price was 8,644 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.19%. Soybean oil's day - session closing price was 8,000 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.18%, and night - session closing price was 7,982 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.22% [4] - **Macro and industry news**: Indonesia cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year, maintaining the current 40% palm - based fuel and 60% diesel ratio. It will also raise the export levy on crude palm oil from 10% to 12.5% starting from March 1. Analysts believe that the upward catalyst for crude palm oil prices may have disappeared, and the plan to raise export taxes may further suppress prices [5][6] - **Trend strength**: Palm oil and soybean oil both have a trend strength of - 1 [7] Soybean meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamental data**: DCE Soybean No.1 2605's day - session closing price was 4323 yuan/ton with a decline of 31 yuan (- 0.71%), and night - session closing price was 4332 yuan/ton with an increase of 3 yuan (+ 0.07%). DCE Soybean meal 2605's day - session closing price was 2751 yuan/ton with a decline of 25 yuan (- 0.90%), and night - session closing price was 2754 yuan/ton with an increase of 5 yuan (+ 0.18%) [8] - **Macro and industry news**: On January 14, CBOT soybeans had a technical rebound. Private exporters reported selling 33.4 tons of soybeans to China in 2025/26. China's soybean imports in December 2025 were 804 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%, and the total imports in 2025 were estimated to be 111.8 million tons, an increase of 6.5%. However, Brazil's record soybean harvest may reduce China's demand for US soybeans [10] - **Trend strength**: Both soybean meal and soybean No.1 have a trend strength of 0 [10] Corn - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of C2603 was 2,272 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.70% during the day and 2,282 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.44% at night. The closing price of C2605 was 2,275 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.22% during the day and 2,278 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.13% at night [12] - **Macro and industry news**: Northern corn bulk shipping port prices were basically flat, and Guangdong Shekou prices were also stable. Northeast deep - processing corn prices were stable with a slight increase, while North China corn prices declined slightly [13] - **Trend strength**: Corn has a trend strength of 0 [14] Sugar - **Fundamental data**: The raw sugar price was 14.68 cents/pound with a decline of 0.21. The mainstream spot price was 5350 yuan/ton with an increase of 10 yuan. The futures main - contract price was 5299 yuan/ton with an increase of 46 yuan [15] - **Macro and industry news**: As of December 31, 2025/26, India's sugar production increased by 24% year - on - year, and it had signed 180,000 tons of export contracts. Brazil exported 2.91 million tons in December, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. China imported 440,000 tons of sugar in November (- 90,000 tons). CAOC expects China's sugar production in 2025/26 to be 11.7 million tons, consumption to be 15.7 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons. ISO expects a global sugar surplus of 1.63 million tons in 2025/26 [15][16][17] - **Trend strength**: Sugar has a trend strength of - 1 [18] Cotton - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of CF2605 was 14,810 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.34% during the day and 14780 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.20% at night. The closing price of CY2603 was 20,835 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.34% during the day and 20820 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.07% at night [19] - **Macro and industry news**: Cotton spot trading was generally light, and the overall price of pure - cotton yarn was stable with a slight decline. ICE cotton futures continued to fluctuate slightly [20][21] - **Trend strength**: Cotton has a trend strength of 0 [22] Eggs - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of eggs 2602 was 2,958 yuan/500 kilograms with a decline of 0.94%, and the closing price of eggs 2603 was 3,007 yuan/500 kilograms with a decline of 0.56% [25] - **Trend strength**: Eggs have a trend strength of 0 [26] Hogs - **Fundamental data**: The Henan spot price was 13030 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 13000 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 13260 yuan/ton. The price of hogs 2603 was 12010 yuan/ton, hogs 2605 was 12260 yuan/ton, and hogs 2607 was 12885 yuan/ton [29] - **Trend strength**: Hogs have a trend strength of - 1 [30] Peanuts - **Fundamental data**: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 9,100 yuan/ton, Henan Baisha common peanuts was 7,200 yuan/ton. The closing price of PK603 was 7,844 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.10%, and PK605 was 7,860 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.10% [32] - **Macro and industry news**: In the spot market, the prices in Henan, Jilin, Liaoning, and Shandong were generally stable with a slight decline in some areas [33] - **Trend strength**: Peanuts have a trend strength of 0 [34]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market is expected to be volatile and moderately strong in the short term, but there is no obvious driving force in the medium - term logic. Conservative investors are advised to consider partial hedging at high prices for near - month contracts. The oil market is expected to be weakly volatile under the short - term expectation of loose supply and demand. Pre - holiday stockpiling is recommended to replenish inventory appropriately at low prices, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the US biofuel policy. [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - China purchased at least 8 million tons of US soybeans in 2025, approaching the 12 - million - ton procurement target. The uncertainty of the subsequent procurement rhythm due to the lack of a formal trade agreement between China and the US is regarded as an important factor suppressing soybean prices. [1] - In November 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 6.615 million short tons (221 million bushels), lower than the revised 7.09 million short tons (236 million bushels) in October but higher than 6.3 million short tons (210 million bushels) in November last year. [1] - Near - month contracts are affected by policy rumors. Before the state reserve release, the price is expected to be strong, but the domestic short - term soybean meal spot inventory is high. Once the reserve release occurs after the holiday, the premium may quickly disappear. [1] Oils - In October, the available capacity of US renewable diesel remained stable at 4.989 billion gallons per year. The use of soybean oil as a raw material for biofuel production decreased by 47 million pounds to 1.006 billion pounds, reaching a 6 - month low. As of the end of November, the US soybean oil inventory soared to 2.164 billion pounds, an 18 - month high. [2] - Due to strong monthly production offsetting the moderate growth of exports, Malaysia's palm oil inventory in December is expected to rise to the highest level in nearly seven years. [2] - After the holiday, the oil sector declined significantly. The reasons include the sharp increase in US soybean oil inventory, uncertainty in biofuel demand, the pressure of rising palm oil inventory, and the possibility of resuming Canadian rapeseed imports. [2]