文末有抽奖赠书福利 01 为什么中国企业家 需要一本美国企业史 2023 年，一家制造企业的老板在深夜的办公室里翻看财务报告： 原材料价格上涨、东南亚订单骤降、AI 技术颠覆传统生产线…… 对于这位老板来说，这种前所未见的场景，刚好与百年前的美国企业形成镜像。 历史从未重复，但总在押韵——这正是我们花两年时间策划出版 《美国企业史（第三版）：商业的演化与周期》 的核心逻辑。 在这本超过 350 页的著作中，哈佛商学院传奇教授、普利策奖得主托马斯·麦克劳以手术刀般的精准，解剖了 1920 年代以来美国企业的百年兴衰。 不同于《置身事内》聚焦政府经济逻辑，也区别于《萧条中的生存智慧》的战术手册，这本书构建了一个 "历史 实验室"： 它将通用汽车与福特的权力博弈、麦当劳从汉堡店到地产巨头的转型、 RCA 手握电视专利却轰然倒塌的教训， 置于经济周期、技术革命、政策变迁的三棱镜下，提炼出了大时代切换之下，所有企业都可以借鉴的商业生存法 则。 02 穿越六个历史周期的 "企业反脆弱密码" 麦克劳将百年商业史切割为六大风暴眼，每个阶段都暗合当下中国企业面临的挑战，我们以前三个阶段为例，来 分析一下企业的反脆弱密码。 ①1 ...

Group 1 - The article presents a curated list of recommended economic and management books that aim to help professionals and entrepreneurs understand economic trends and business evolution in a time of uncertainty and opportunity [3] - The list includes various genres, such as autobiographies of successful entrepreneurs, practical manuals dissecting case studies, and guides that reinterpret traditional theories [3] - Each book is positioned as a potential source of insights and answers for readers seeking to navigate the complexities of the modern economic landscape [3] Group 2 - "The Right Path" by Su Jingzhi chronicles the journey of the former CEO of Yum China, detailing the growth of the company from a few KFC outlets to a major player in the Chinese restaurant industry, emphasizing brand rebuilding and crisis management [5] - "Chinese Financial Culture" by Dong Yun explores the historical and cultural underpinnings of China's financial development, arguing that understanding these elements is crucial for grasping the unique characteristics of China's financial system [8][9] - "Real Estate Development Insights" by Xia Dong analyzes the current state and future trends of the Chinese real estate market, offering a comprehensive framework for understanding its evolution and transformation [12] - "American Business History" by Wu Yunxian provides an extensive study of the evolution of American enterprises, focusing on technological innovation and industry iteration as key drivers of economic growth [14] - "The Power of Money" by Paul Sheard discusses the multifaceted role of money in the economy, including government debt, central banking, and the impact of monetary policy on wealth and inequality [30]

来源丨硅兔赛跑（ID：sv_race） 编译丨Xuushan 编辑丨伊凡 普通人如何才能更好的渡过这一难关？ "这是一场货币、政治、边缘秩序的崩溃现象。" "这种崩溃现象，我们一生只会遇到过一次，但站在历史的长河里，这类事情曾发生过很多次。" "长期来看，持有现金有可能是普通人做出的最坏的投资决策。" 4月9日，美国总统宣布的关税政策正式生效。时代激变之下，普通人要如何渡过经济周期？ 桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio）近期接受外媒CNBC的视频采访，讲述此次经济危机与1930年前 后的大萧条情况相似，历史正在重演，现有的世界秩序体系面临崩坏；他认可美国制造业需要回归，但 同样也担忧如今的美国是否能够寻找到足够多的人才回到制造业中；而目前的关税政策或许难以解决美 国当下的债务问题、竞争力问题以及制造业问题。 同时，他还给出了一些方向性的指引：普通人如何才能更好的渡过这一难关？ 小编在不影响原文的情况下，编译了此次对话，并进行的调序，enjoy～ 主持人：现在我们还在努力理解新关税政策意味着什么？您能帮助我们了解历史，或者解读此次关税风 波在历史上有哪些相似之处，及其未来走向。 瑞·达利欧： 我们有时 ...

真正的牛熊轮回，市场情绪是表象，货币政策是推力，经济周期是根源。 所以，我们不能让自己每天埋没在对各种信息的收集和分析中，这些信息太碎 片化、太纷繁杂乱，太浪费时间，我们要跳出这个怪圈。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250408— "他们要打多久，就打多久，一直打到，完全胜利"（-股市上涨-资金价格偏贵=中上)】 资金面均衡，长债收益率明显上行。 央行公开市场开展1674亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有649亿元逆回购到期，净投放1025亿元。 资金面均衡，资金价格偏贵，DR007小幅上至1.78%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 04. 08) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成文章 | 变化量 | 成交通占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.83 | | | 4. 00 | 14 | 57886. ...

Core Viewpoint - April is a critical observation period for fundamental and policy changes, with key focuses on potential risks of fundamental fluctuations, the marginal easing of central bank attitudes, and the further developments following the implementation of tariffs by the Trump administration [1] Macro: Economic Cycle Position and State - The current Chinese economy exhibits three significant characteristics: 1. The phase of maximum downward pressure has likely passed, with the inventory cycle indicating that 2022-2023 was the most challenging period, and the low point of this cycle is expected to be at the end of 2023 to early 2024 [2] 2. Moving away from the peak of downward pressure does not imply a rapid rebound, as recent cycles indicate that the economy remains in a state of fluctuation [2] 3. Short-term economic recovery faces obstacles due to external trade pressures and slow recovery in real estate investment and consumption [2] Policy: Important Observation Window for Central Bank Attitude - April serves as a crucial observation window for the central bank's stance, focusing on liquidity management and potential hawkish signals, especially in light of significant bond issuance pressure [3] - The speed and proportion of government bond issuance in April will be vital for determining economic conditions in the second quarter [3] Overseas: Subtle Changes in Sentiment - The overall performance of the U.S. economy shows marginal changes, with a slight increase in unemployment and resilient labor market conditions, while retail sales have improved from negative growth [4] - Investor sentiment is changing rapidly, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s policies [4] Major Asset Strategy Judgments - A-shares are experiencing a style switch, driven by clearer fundamental outlines and cyclical changes in market sentiment, leading to a shift in market style [5] - Bond market rates are expected to remain volatile, with the central bank's liquidity stance influencing bond yields [6] - Commodity prices, particularly copper and gold, are shifting focus back to fundamentals as tariff expectations have been priced in [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of five significant consumer symbols over the past century, illustrating how they reflect economic cycles and the interplay of technological breakthroughs, business models, and cultural recognition, termed as the "innovation multiplier effect" [4][6]. Economic Cycles and Consumer Symbols - Economic cycles are characterized by the periodic adjustment of social resource allocation efficiency, driven by different factors such as technological revolutions, capital changes, and supply-demand dynamics [6]. - The article identifies three main economic cycles: - Kondratiev cycle (long-term, 50-60 years) driven by technological and institutional changes - Juglar cycle (medium-term, 7-11 years) focused on fixed asset updates - Kitchin cycle (short-term, 3-5 years) related to inventory adjustments [6]. - The current historical moment is marked by the resonance of these three cycles, leading to the emergence of unique consumer symbols [6]. Five Major Consumer Symbols 1. **Lipstick (1920-1930s)**: - Represents the "comfort economics" during the recession, with lipstick sales increasing by 50% despite a 25% unemployment rate in 1929 [9][12]. - The production cost of lipstick decreased by 80% due to advancements in synthetic dye technology, making it an affordable luxury [12]. 2. **Ford Model T (1908-1927)**: - Symbolizes industrial recovery and economies of scale, with production time reduced from 728 hours to 12.5 hours through assembly line techniques [13][14]. - By 1921, the Model T accounted for 56.6% of global automobile production, contributing 15% to the GDP growth of the 1920s [14]. 3. **Nike Air Jordan (1984-2020s)**: - Represents cultural dominance during the globalization boom, with Nike leveraging strategic sponsorships to gain market share in the NBA [15][19]. - Nike's focus on cultural empowerment through targeted sponsorships allowed it to become the leading sports brand [19]. 4. **iPhone (2007-present)**: - Acts as a technological revolutionary symbol, with the tech industry market cap increasing by 433% from 2009 to 2018, largely driven by Apple [20][21]. - The introduction of the iPhone 4 marked a significant shift in smartphone penetration and redefined market standards for consumer electronics [21]. 5. **Lululemon (2000-present)**: - Embodies the rise of self-care consumerism in the post-pandemic era, with a CAGR of 25% in revenue and net profit, positioning it as the second-largest sportswear company after Nike [22][25]. - Lululemon's success is attributed to its innovative product offerings and deep understanding of its target market, leading to high customer loyalty and profitability [22][24]. Insights from Consumer Symbols - Each consumer symbol reflects the historical context and market dynamics of its time, demonstrating how they adapt to economic cycles [26]. - The article emphasizes that while consumer symbols may experience peaks and troughs, their resilience often stems from meeting specific market demands, as seen with Lululemon and lipstick during economic downturns [26]. - The enduring pursuit of a better life remains a constant driver of economic innovation, regardless of the cyclical nature of the economy [26].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a competitive landscape in the Chinese heavy truck market, suggesting an acceleration in the elimination of tail-end enterprises [1]. Core Insights - The heavy truck market in developed countries has entered a mature phase, with the U.S. experiencing a gradual decline in economic growth momentum and Japan and Germany showing stable but low growth in heavy truck sales [3][4][5]. - China's heavy truck market is undergoing a critical transformation, with a shift from an incremental growth model to a focus on stock replacement, leading to increased competition among enterprises [3][6]. Summary by Sections U.S. Heavy Truck Market - The U.S. heavy truck market shows signs of maturity, with economic growth slowing from an average of 8.0% (1970-2002) to 3.1% (2008-2020) [7]. - Heavy truck ownership correlates with GDP growth, but is subject to fluctuations due to global events [7][8]. German and Japanese Heavy Truck Markets - Both Germany and Japan exhibit characteristics of mature markets, with significant declines in heavy truck sales linked to economic stagnation [12][13]. - The average scrapping cycle for heavy trucks in Germany is 8-10 years, influenced by global public health events [13]. Chinese Heavy Truck Market - China's heavy truck ownership is closely tied to economic development, with a recent phase of oversupply due to declining GDP growth rates [17]. - The market is transitioning to a stock replacement model, with heightened sensitivity to standard changes and intensified competition among enterprises [17][20]. Price Competition in the Heavy Truck Market - A price war is evident in the heavy truck sector, driven by industry downturns and standard changes, with significant price reductions observed in both fuel and electric models [20][22]. - The average price of heavy trucks has seen notable declines, with some models experiencing discounts of up to 50,000 yuan [22]. Tail-End Enterprises Comparison - Among tail-end enterprises, XCMG leads in sales with 3,110 units, followed by Beiben and Dayun with 638 and 586 units respectively [25]. - In terms of production capacity, Jianghuai leads with 1.017 million units, while other companies like Dayun and XCMG have significantly lower capacities [25].