Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, copper prices on both domestic and international markets rose strongly and reached new highs, then quickly corrected. The sharp rise was driven by capital and market sentiment, deviating from the fundamentals. After the speculative sentiment fades, copper prices will gradually return to the pattern of "strong expectation" and "weak reality" dominated by fundamentals. In the short - term, be vigilant about the high - level volatility of copper prices, and in the long - term, wait for demand verification [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - Macro aspect: After the Fed's first interest - rate meeting this year, the interest rate remained unchanged. The market had anticipated the delay of the interest - rate cut policy. The US dollar index weakened to a historical low, then rebounded after Trump nominated Warsh as the next Fed chairman [2]. - Supply end: The long - term supply shortage story is still solid. There are frequent disturbances in the mining end, and Chinese smelters' production cut plans due to low processing fees have intensified supply - side concerns. The supply shortages in the mining and smelting ends support copper prices at the bottom [2]. - Demand end: As the Spring Festival approaches, traditional downstream industries enter the off - season, with light procurement activities. The high spot prices following the futures rise have suppressed physical demand [2]. Key Concerns - Pay attention to the latest US economic data and downstream demand changes [3]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data This Week | Indicator | Unit | This Week's Latest | Last Week's Same Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Electrolytic copper price (≥99.95%): Shanghai | Yuan/ton | 104410 | 100680 | 3730 | 3.70% | Weekly | | Electrolytic copper premium/discount (≥99.95%): Shanghai | Yuan/ton | - 140 | - 180 | 40 | 22.22% | Weekly | | Clean copper concentrate forward spot comprehensive index (TC) | US dollars/dry ton | - 50.2 | - 49.8 | - 0.4 | - 0.80% | Weekly | | Oxygen - free copper rod price | Yuan/ton | 105390 | 101810 | 3580 | 3.52% | Weekly | | LME copper inventory | Tons | 174975 | 171700 | 3275 | 1.91% | Weekly | | SHFE copper inventory | Tons | 233004 | 225937 | 7067 | 3.13% | Weekly | | COMEX copper inventory | Short tons | 577724 | 562605 | 15119 | 2.69% | Weekly | [3] 1. Futures Market Review - The report shows the price trends of Shanghai copper, London copper, and the Shanghai - London ratio (without excluding exchange rates) in the form of graphs, with data sources from Boyi Master and Ningzheng Futures [5][6][7] 2. Supply Situation Analysis - The report shows the copper concentrate forward spot price (in TC price), the average processing price of crude copper, copper concentrate port inventory, domestic electrolytic copper production, the price change trends of electrolytic copper and scrap copper, and the refined - scrap price difference in the main markets in the form of graphs, with data sources from the Steel Union Terminal and Ningzheng Futures [12] 3. Demand Situation Analysis - The report shows the 1 electrolytic copper premium/discount (≥99.95%) in Shanghai, copper product prices, copper product capacity utilization rate, refined copper rod trading volume, Yangshan copper bonded area premium, and electrolytic copper warehouse receipt bill of lading premium (pyrometallurgical) in the form of graphs, with data sources from iFinD, the Steel Union Terminal, and the Steel Union Data [15] 4. Inventory Situation Analysis - The report shows the electrolytic copper spot inventory and the inventories of three major futures exchanges in the form of graphs, with data sources from the Steel Union Terminal and iFinD [17]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown significant improvement in trading sentiment, with transaction volumes reaching historical highs, indicating a strong upward trend since mid-December 2025 [1][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index achieved a 17-day consecutive rise, reaching its highest level in nearly a decade, with average daily transaction volumes exceeding 30 trillion yuan since the beginning of 2026 [1]. - The market's active trading environment is characterized by a high turnover rate of 5.7%, the most active since 2015, with a record transaction amount of 3.99 trillion yuan on January 14, 2026 [1][12]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Retail investors have been increasingly entering the market, with an average of 2.43 million new accounts opened monthly in Q4 2025, driven by a "scarcity of assets" and the relative attractiveness of the stock market [2][18]. - High-risk preference funds, including margin financing and private equity, have seen significant increases in their positions, with margin financing balances surpassing 2.7 trillion yuan, marking a historical high [1][16]. Group 3: Fund Flows - Stock ETFs have experienced a shift in growth momentum, with significant inflows into industry-themed ETFs, particularly in sectors like non-ferrous metals and aerospace, reflecting changing investor preferences [3][22]. - Northbound capital has shown a gradual return to the A-share market, with a net inflow of 117 billion yuan in Q4 2025, as global monetary conditions favor Chinese assets [4][24]. Group 4: Institutional Investment - Insurance funds have accelerated their entry into the market, with stock and securities investments reaching 5.6 trillion yuan, the highest since 2013, indicating a growing commitment to equity investments [5][26]. - Active funds have regained excess returns, with the mixed equity fund index yielding 11.6%, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 7 percentage points, leading to a positive trend in fund issuance and redemption [5][28]. Group 5: Sector Focus - Institutional investors have increased their focus on sectors such as non-ferrous metals and telecommunications, while reducing exposure to electronics and biopharmaceuticals, reflecting a strategic shift in portfolio allocations [8][34]. - The market is expected to maintain a relatively active trading sentiment, supported by low interest rates and a favorable environment for equity investments, with potential for further inflows from both domestic and foreign investors [9][39].

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 477.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40% on January 30, with a net injection of 352.5 billion yuan for the day after accounting for 125 billion yuan maturing [1] - A total of 58.05 billion yuan was injected into the market during the week [1] - Upcoming reverse repos include 17.615 billion yuan maturing from February 2 to 6, along with 7 billion yuan of 91-day reverse repos maturing on February 4 [1] Group 2: Market Liquidity - The interbank market liquidity remains stable, with the weighted average rate of DR001 dropping over 3 basis points to around 1.32% [3] - Overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system are around 1.30%, with supply at approximately 10 billion yuan [3] - The central bank's increased reverse repo operations indicate a clear intention to support liquidity [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is at 1.60%, showing a slight decline from the previous day [6] Group 4: Bond Market Overview - The yields on major interbank bonds showed mixed movements, with the 30-year futures contract down 0.23%, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts saw slight increases of 0.06% and 0.01% respectively [13] Group 5: Economic Indicators - The Ministry of Finance announced that the national general public budget revenue for 2025 is projected to be 21.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% from 2024, with tax revenue expected to grow by 0.8% [14] - State-owned enterprises' total operating revenue is expected to grow by 0.5% year-on-year, while profit is projected to decline by 6.3% [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report's industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Mid - term, long - term interest rates may be similar to the early 2021 period, oscillating at the peak, but there are still some constraints for a smooth short - term decline. In January, the 10Y Treasury yield initially reached 1.90% and then dropped to 1.81% at the end of the month, reaching the lower limit of the 1.8% - 1.9% oscillation range. Currently, the expectation of broad - based monetary policy is relatively insufficient, making it difficult to support the yield to break downward. In February, with the large - scale supply of local bonds, the 10Y Treasury yield may return to the central position of the oscillation range. Investment strategies suggest focusing on two structural opportunities: the allocation opportunities of 5Y policy - financial bonds and 3 - 5Y general - credit bonds due to the concentrated maturity of amortized - cost - method bond funds; and the opportunities for spread compression under the background of the central bank supporting reasonable and sufficient liquidity, such as the spread between 10Y China Development Bank bonds and 10Y Treasury bonds [1][24]. Summary by Directory 2 - Month Bond Market Outlook: Similarities and Differences between 2026 and 2021 - **Fundamentals**: In 2021, the credit cycle weakened and the real - estate market peaked and declined. In 2026, the credit cycle may decline moderately, and the real - estate market may still be at the bottom - grinding stage. In 2021, factors such as the "Three Red Lines" and "Two Concentration Limits on Mortgage Loans" in the real - estate industry and repeated outbreaks of the epidemic led to a contraction in real - estate financing, causing a rapid decline in the credit and real - estate cycles. In 2026, the real - estate market is still at the bottom - grinding stage during the transformation of old and new driving forces, and the credit cycle may decline relatively moderately with the support of monetary and fiscal policies [1][8]. - **Fiscal Policy and Local Bond Supply**: After the withdrawal of extraordinary policies, the broad - based deficit ratio may decline marginally. Compared with 2021, the current local bond supply is front - loaded and has a longer term. In 2021, fiscal efforts were back - loaded and the term was shortened, while in 2026, fiscal policy continues to be "actively front - loaded" with a relatively long - term [12]. - **Monetary Policy and Capital Market**: In both 2021 and 2026, the expectation of broad - based monetary aggregate policies declined. However, in early 2026, liquidity was relatively abundant, while in early 2021, the capital market was tight. In 2021, there was no interest - rate cut throughout the year, and the policy intensity weakened significantly compared with 2020. In early 2026, there was a 25BP structural interest - rate cut and an over - amount renewal of MLF to provide liquidity support [18]. - **Equity Market and Institutional Behavior**: Against the backdrop of a booming equity market, funds flowed into the stock market. Compared with 2021 when insurance and funds had a greater demand for bonds, in 2026, factors such as the entry of insurance funds into the market and the lack of comparative advantages of pure bonds may limit the demand support for bonds [21]. January Bond Market Review Bond Market Trend Review - **First Week**: The 10Y Treasury interest rate rose 3bp to 1.88%. At the beginning of the year, affected by supply shocks and the A - share market's good start, the yield first rose and then fell, reaching a peak and then declining. Later in the week, as negative factors were initially released, market sentiment improved marginally, and the ultra - long - term bonds returned to around 2.3% [26]. - **Second Week**: The 10Y Treasury interest rate dropped 4bp to 1.84%. In the second week, under the combined effect of equity market adjustments, policy games, and capital - market fluctuations, the bond market oscillated and recovered with increased volatility. After the central bank's over - amount renewal of repurchase agreements and the implementation of structural tool interest - rate cuts, the capital - market tension gradually eased. The adjustment policy of the exchange margin ratio for margin trading triggered risk - aversion trading in the equity market, and the bond market started a smooth upward trend [29]. - **Third Week**: The 10Y Treasury interest rate dropped 1bp to 1.83%. In the third week, with the central bank's support, the capital - market pressure was relatively controllable. As the equity market's upward trend slowed down, the bond market recovered. With the cooling of the equity market and the fermentation of external risk - aversion signals, the bullish sentiment in the bond market was boosted, and ultra - long - term bonds had a strong performance. At the end of the week, the central bank's over - amount renewal of MLF and the mention of "there is still some room for reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts this year" by the governor increased the market's expectation of an MLF interest - rate cut, and the bullish force in the bond market was strong [29]. - **Fourth Week**: The 10Y Treasury interest rate dropped 2bp to 1.81%. Near the end of the month, with a quiet market news environment, the stock - bond seesaw effect was strengthened, and the short - and long - term bond varieties showed different trends. At the beginning of the week, with tight capital, the short - term yield weakened, and the ultra - long - term bonds performed strongly, flattening the yield curve. Later, as the central bank's capital support took effect, the cross - month capital market was moderately loose. The medium - and short - term bonds strengthened overall, while the ultra - long - term bonds weakened under the influence of profit - taking sentiment and supply concerns, making the yield curve steeper [30]. Capital Market - The central bank net - injected 967.8 billion yuan through four major tools. At the beginning of the month, due to a large supply of bonds, capital prices gradually increased. In the middle of the month, affected by the reserve - requirement payment day and the deferred repurchase agreement, the capital market tightened. On the evening of January 14, the central bank announced an over - amount renewal of 90 billion yuan in repurchase agreements, with a net injection of 30 billion yuan this month, and the capital market gradually loosened. At the end of the month, facing the tax - payment period, capital prices increased again, and the central bank net - injected 7 - day funds to support liquidity, but the amount was not large [31]. - In January, capital prices generally increased. The monthly average of R001 increased 5bp to 1.41%, and the monthly average of R007 decreased 2bp to 1.55%. The monthly average of DR001 increased 6bp to 1.34%, and the monthly average of DR007 increased 2bp to 1.51%. The 3M inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) issuance rate oscillated in the range and then increased at the end of the month. The FR007 - 1Y swap rate first rose and then fell, and recovered at the end of the month. The 3M national - share bank bill rate first rose, then fell, and then recovered. As of January 30, the 3M national - share bank bill rate was 1.45%, and the monthly average from January 4 to 30 increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year [33]. Secondary Market Trends - In January, yields first rose and then fell. Except for 3m, 3y, 20y, and 30y, the Treasury interest rates of other key tenors declined. Except for 5y - 3y, 7y - 5y, and 50y - 30y, the term spreads of other key tenors of Treasury bonds widened. As of January 30, the yields of 7y and 5y Treasury bonds decreased 6bp and 5bp respectively compared with December 31, reaching 1.68% and 1.58%, with relatively large declines. The term spreads of 30y - 10y and 3y - 1y widened 6bp compared with December 31, reaching 48bp and 10bp respectively, with relatively large widening amplitudes [42]. - In January 2026, the spread between new and old 10Y Treasury bonds first widened and then narrowed, the negative spread between new and old 10Y China Development Bank bonds narrowed, and the spread between the second - active and active 30Y Treasury bonds first rose and then fell [44]. Bond Market Sentiment - In January 2026, the inter - bank leverage ratio first rose and then fell, the spread between 30Y and 10Y Treasury bonds continued to widen, and the duration of bond funds first increased and then decreased within the month. The weekly average turnover rate of 30Y Treasury bonds in January 2026 increased slightly compared with December 2025. Compared with December 31, 2025, the spread between 50Y and 30Y Treasury bonds narrowed 2.9bp, and the spread between 30Y and 10Y Treasury bonds widened 5.8bp on January 30, 2026. The inter - bank leverage ratio rose to 108.2% at the beginning of January and fell to 107.4% at the end of the month, and the exchange leverage ratio continued to decline and fell to 123.0% at the end of the month. Compared with December 31, 2025, the median duration of the full - sample bond funds remained basically the same on January 30, 2026, and the median duration of interest - rate bond funds decreased by 0.04 years. The implied tax rate of 10Y China Development Bank bonds widened in January 2026 compared with December 2025 [50]. Bond Supply - In January 2026, the net financing amount of interest - rate bonds increased compared with December 2025 and January 2025. As of January 31, 2026, the net financing amount of interest - rate bonds in January 2026 was 133.12 billion yuan, an increase of 85.24 billion yuan compared with December 2025 and an increase of 29.77 billion yuan compared with the same period in 2025. The net financing amounts of Treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - financial bonds all increased month - on - month [54]. - In January 2026, the issuance scale of Treasury bonds decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. From January 1 to January 31, 2026, a total of 13 Treasury bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 121.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 60.41 billion yuan compared with December 2025 and an increase of 19.85 billion yuan compared with January 2025, of which the proportion of those with a term of 1 year or less was 29%. On January 14, a new 30Y coupon - bearing Treasury bond 260002.IB was issued, with an issuance scale of 3.2 billion yuan and an issuance interest rate of 2.38%. On February 6, this 30Y coupon - bearing Treasury bond will be re - issued with 3.2 billion yuan [57]. - In January 2026, the issuance scale of local government bonds increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the issuance scale of local bonds will be large next week. From January 1 to January 31, 2026, 27 policy - financial bonds were issued, with an issuance scale of 69.28 billion yuan, an increase of 45.88 billion yuan compared with December 2025 and an increase of 12.58 billion yuan compared with the same period in 2025. 135 local government bonds were issued, with an issuance scale of 86.33 billion yuan, an increase of 57.96 billion yuan compared with December 2025 and an increase of 30.58 billion yuan compared with the same period in 2025. According to iFinD data as of January 31, 2026, it is planned to issue 57.97 billion yuan in local bonds from February 2 to February 6 [59]. - In January 2026, the net repayment amount of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) increased, and the monthly issuance interest rate decreased. The total issuance amount of inter - bank NCDs in January 2026 was 169.34 billion yuan, a decrease of 143.57 billion yuan compared with December 2025. The total repayment amount was 231.62 billion yuan, and the net repayment amount was 62.28 billion yuan, an increase of 4.52 billion yuan month - on - month. The average issuance interest rate of NCDs in January 2026 was 1.62%, a decrease of 2.4bp compared with December 2025 [60]. Economic Data - In January, the manufacturing PMI returned to the contraction range. On January 31, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China's manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, the previous value was 50.1%; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, the previous value was 50.2%; the comprehensive manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, the previous value was 50.7% [63]. - Since January, second - hand housing transactions have recovered, and industrial production has weakened marginally. In terms of real - estate, the monthly average of the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities turned negative month - on - month but the year - on - year decline narrowed. The monthly average of the transaction area of second - hand housing in 13 cities turned positive month - on - month and the year - on - year decline narrowed. The monthly average of the land transaction area in 100 cities turned negative month - on - month and the year - on - year decline widened. In terms of consumption, movie monthly consumption was weak both month - on - month and year - on - year, travel increased month - on - month, and subway passenger volume was stronger than the seasonal level. In terms of exports, the monthly port throughput increased year - on - year, and the freight rate index continued to decline year - on - year. Industrial production weakened marginally. The monthly average of daily coal consumption in power plants increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The monthly average of the PTA and semi - steel tire operating rates increased month - on - month, while the operating rates of other indicators decreased month - on - month [63][65]. - The high - frequency infrastructure and price data in January showed that inventory indicators increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the prices of crude oil and asphalt increased significantly. In terms of infrastructure high - frequency data, the monthly average of the mill operating rate decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, and the monthly average of the asphalt operating rate decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The monthly average of rebar inventory increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Among price indicators, the monthly average of cement and vegetable price indicators decreased month - on - month, while the monthly average of other price indicators increased month - on - month [66]. Overseas Bond Market - The Federal Reserve announced to keep interest rates unchanged. On January 28, the Federal Reserve ended its two - day monetary policy meeting and announced to keep the target range of the federal funds rate unchanged between 3.5% and 3.75%, which was in line with market expectations. The Federal Open Market Committee stated that existing indicators showed that the US economic activity was expanding steadily, but the uncertainty of the economic outlook remained high. Employment growth was persistently low, the unemployment rate showed some signs of stabilizing, and inflation remained at a relatively high level. Among the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee, 10 supported the monetary policy decision, and 2 members, Stephen Milan and Christopher Waller, voted against it, advocating a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut [71]. - The US PPI increase in December exceeded expectations. On January 30, data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the US PPI in December increased 3% year - on - year, with an expected increase of 2.8% and a previous value of 3%; it increased 0.5% month - on - month, with an expected increase of 0.2% and a previous value of 0.2%. The core PPI in December increased 3.3% year - on - year, with an expected increase of 2.9% and a previous value of 3%; it increased 0.7% month - on - month, with an expected increase of 0.2% and a previous value of 0% [71]. - Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. On January 30, US President Trump nominated former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, and this nomination needs to be approved by the Senate. Warsh joined the Federal Reserve in 2006 and was the youngest Federal Reserve governor at that time. In terms of monetary policy, he had a somewhat hawkish stance in the past and emphasized fiscal discipline and a more cautious attitude towards interest - rate cuts [72]. -

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The expected new tool of the central bank is likely different from the Fed's ONRRP, and narrowing the interest - rate corridor may have limited practical significance for the capital market. There is a possibility that the central bank will combine new tools with self - regulatory requirements to reduce the cost of banks absorbing non - bank inter - bank deposits [5][36][41]. - Affected by the Spring Festival, local government bond issuance in February is front - loaded. It is expected that the issuance scale of government bonds in February and March 2026 will be 2.15 trillion and 2.63 trillion respectively, and the net financing scale will be 1.38 trillion and 1.13 trillion respectively. The cumulative net financing scale of government bonds in the first quarter is about 3.70 trillion, which may still be lower than the 4.1 trillion in the same period in 2025 [7][59]. - Next week, the pressure of the central bank's policy tool maturity and government bond payment is still high, and the cash - withdrawal demand may increase near the Spring Festival. However, considering the central bank's loose tone, it is expected that the capital market will remain stable [10][68]. Summary by Directory 1. Money Market 1.1 This Week's Capital Market Review - OMO had a net injection of 5805 billion yuan this week. There was a 200 billion yuan MLF maturity on Monday, and the Ministry of Finance conducted a 150 billion yuan 1 - month treasury cash fixed - deposit operation on Wednesday with the winning bid rate remaining at 1.73% for three consecutive months. The capital tightened marginally at the beginning of the week but loosened later, with DR001 falling to around 1.33% [3][16]. - The trading volume of pledged repurchase declined continuously after Monday, and the overall scale of pledged repurchase rose oscillatingly before Thursday and dropped significantly on Friday. The net lending of large - scale banks fluctuated after a decline on Monday, while that of small and medium - sized banks rose continuously before Thursday and dropped on Friday but remained higher than last week. The overall net lending of banks fluctuated with a slightly lower center compared to last week. Non - bank rigid lending increased continuously, and non - bank rigid borrowing rose oscillatingly. The capital gap index rose on Monday, then declined continuously, and rose again on Friday. The season - adjusted index reached - 409.8 billion, slightly higher than - 496.1 billion last Friday, and the non - season - adjusted index was - 532.9 billion on Friday, still below the neutral level [4][24]. - The cross - month progress of the exchange market accelerated at the beginning of the week, and the gap compared with previous years was narrowing, but it was still relatively late overall. The cross - month progress of the inter - bank market institutions continued to lag, and the gap compared with previous years continued to widen, with more than 50% of the funds crossing the month on the last trading day. Overall, the institutions' cross - year progress was late, still at the latest level in the same period over the years, but the capital market remained loose at the end of the month under the central bank's support [4][28]. - The new tool expected by the central bank is likely different from the Fed's ONRRP. Narrowing the interest - rate corridor may mainly clarify existing rules and have limited practical significance for the capital market. There is a possibility that the central bank will combine new tools with self - regulatory requirements to reduce the cost of banks absorbing non - bank inter - bank deposits [5][36][41]. 1.2 Next Week's Capital Outlook - The issuance scale of 1 - year and 2 - year treasury bonds next week will drop to 130 billion and 120 billion respectively, and the treasury bond payment is expected to be about 245 billion yuan. The local government bond issuance scale of 15 regions such as Jiangxi, Guangdong, and Henan next week is 579.7 billion yuan, including 75.5 billion yuan of new general bonds, 134.3 billion yuan of new special bonds, and 369.9 billion yuan of refinancing bonds. The average issuance term of local government bonds in the first week of February decreased from 17.7 years in January to 16.1 years. Considering the time lag of payment, the actual payment scale of local government bonds is 478.7 billion yuan. The net payment scale of government bonds next week may drop to 460.4 billion yuan [6][43][45]. - Affected by the Spring Festival, local government bond issuance in February is front - loaded. It is expected that the local government bond issuance scale in February will reach 1.11 trillion yuan, and the treasury bond issuance scale will be 1.04 trillion yuan with a net financing of 420 billion yuan. The assumptions for government bond issuance in March remain unchanged. Overall, it is expected that the government bond issuance scale in February and March 2026 will be 2.15 trillion and 2.63 trillion respectively, and the net financing scale will be 1.38 trillion and 1.13 trillion respectively. The cumulative net financing scale of government bonds in the first quarter is about 3.70 trillion, which may still be lower than the 4.1 trillion in the same period in 2025 [7][56][59]. - The maturity scale of 7 - day reverse repurchase next week is 1761.5 billion yuan in total, and there will be a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month buy - out repurchase maturity on Friday. The net payment scale of government bonds will drop from 515 billion yuan this week to 460.4 billion yuan, mainly concentrated on Friday with a scale of 308.3 billion yuan. Next Thursday (the 5th) is the reserve payment day for the first ten - day period. The new stock of Aide Technology on the Beijing Stock Exchange will be issued online on February 2nd, with the raised funds scale dropping to about 200 million yuan. Considering the central bank's loose tone, it is expected that the capital market will remain stable [63][68]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - The 1 - year Shibor rate decreased by 1.6 BP to 1.63% compared with January 23rd. The 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit secondary rate remained unchanged at 1.60% compared with last week [69]. - The issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased slightly less than the maturity scale this week, with a net repayment scale of 8.98 billion yuan, a decrease of 190 million yuan compared with last week. The net financing scales of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were - 3 billion yuan, 1.28 billion yuan, - 6.13 billion yuan, and - 1.53 billion yuan respectively. The 3 - month certificate of deposit had the largest issuance volume, accounting for 42%, and the issuance proportion of 1 - year certificates of deposit increased by 14 pct to 30% compared with last week. The maturity scale of certificates of deposit next week is about 13.39 billion yuan, a decrease of 33.3 billion yuan compared with this week [73]. - The issuance success rates of state - owned banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks decreased compared with last week, while that of joint - stock banks increased. Except for the relatively low issuance success rate of joint - stock banks, each bank was near the average level in recent years. The issuance spread of 1 - year certificates of deposit between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks narrowed [76]. - The willingness of money market funds in the primary market and other institutions, wealth management products, and fund companies in the primary and secondary markets to increase their holdings of certificates of deposit decreased this week. The relative strength index of certificates of deposit continued to decline seasonally, dropping by 7.2 pct to 15.7%, still at a neutral level in the same period over the years. In terms of different terms, the supply - demand indexes of 3 - month and 9 - month certificates of deposit increased, while those of other term varieties decreased [84]. 3. Bill Market - This week, bill interest rates first decreased and then increased, showing a narrow - range oscillation. As of January 30th, the 3 - month bill interest rate of state - owned and joint - stock banks remained unchanged at 1.45% compared with January 23rd, and the 6 - month bill interest rate decreased by 2 BP to 1.11% [91]. 4. Bond Trading Sentiment Tracking - This week, the yields of interest - rate bonds oscillated in a narrow range, the yields of credit bonds declined slightly, and most credit spreads narrowed slightly. Large - scale banks tended to increase their bond holdings, especially showing a significant increase in the willingness to increase their holdings of treasury bonds. Trading - type institutions tended to reduce their bond holdings overall, with securities companies' willingness to reduce holdings increasing, fund companies' willingness to increase holdings decreasing, but other institutions and products' willingness to increase holdings increasing. Allocation - type institutions tended to reduce their bond holdings overall, with insurance companies' and wealth management products' willingness to increase holdings decreasing, and small and medium - sized banks' willingness to reduce holdings decreasing [92].

Funding Market Overview - In January, the funding market experienced two rounds of fluctuations, with the central tendency remaining stable. The average R007 for the month decreased by 2.2 basis points to 1.55%[1] - The first round of fluctuations occurred around January 14, with funding rates rising sharply to 1.49% due to the central bank's withdrawal of year-end funds and other factors[1] - The second round of fluctuations was driven by tax periods and month-end demand, with R001 and R007 closing at 1.51% and 1.64%, respectively[1] Central Bank Actions - The central bank released a total of 1 trillion yuan in medium- and long-term funds in January, equivalent to a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement cut[2] - The average daily net lending from banks in January was 4.9 trillion yuan, slightly up from 4.8 trillion yuan in the previous month, indicating a relatively abundant banking system[2] February Outlook - In February, the funding market may face temporary disturbances due to cash withdrawal demands of approximately 900 billion yuan ahead of the Spring Festival and significant government bond issuances[3] - The net issuance of government bonds in February is expected to be around 1.07 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 111.1 billion yuan from January[3] Liquidity Management - The central bank's liquidity management is expected to stabilize the funding market before and after the Spring Festival, with historical liquidity arrangements during this period averaging over 2.3 trillion yuan[4] - The upcoming week (February 2-6) will see a total of 24.615 trillion yuan in public market maturities, including 17.615 trillion yuan in reverse repos, indicating significant liquidity pressure[4] Bill Market Dynamics - The 1-month bill rate rose by 25 basis points to 1.95%, while the 3-month rate remained stable at 1.45%, and the 6-month rate decreased by 2 basis points to 1.11%[5] - Large banks' net selling of bills decreased, with a total net sell of 527 billion yuan in January, compared to 373 billion yuan in the same period last year[5] Government Bond Issuance - The estimated net payment for government bonds in the first week of February is approximately 4.604 trillion yuan, down from 5.150 trillion yuan the previous week but still above the median of around 2.600 trillion yuan since 2025[6] - The government bond issuance plan for February includes a significant increase in the issuance volume, with a total planned issuance of 9.067 trillion yuan in the first week[6]

Group 1 - The central bank's continuous liquidity injection through medium-term tools and stable short-term interest rates are leading to a focus on the funding dynamics around the Spring Festival [1] - Despite increased funding disturbances due to factors like credit "New Year opening" and seasonal cash withdrawal demands, the overall pressure on the funding environment remains controllable under the central bank's support [1][4] - Historical trends indicate that funding prices typically enter a seasonal tightening window in the two weeks before the Spring Festival, followed by marginal easing afterward [2] Group 2 - The seasonal factors affecting the funding environment include the "New Year opening" of bank liabilities and the impact of the "big tax period" in January, which may create liquidity shocks [3] - The central bank has significantly increased the net injection of medium-term liquidity, with a total of 1 trillion yuan injected through reverse repos and MLF in January, reflecting a continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy [4] - It is expected that the central bank will maintain a reasonable liquidity level, with anticipated liquidity injections before the Spring Festival ranging from 3 trillion to 3.5 trillion yuan to ensure stable funding across the holiday period [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pattern of interest rate bonds oscillating within a range remains unchanged. In the quarterly dimension, inflation and monetary policy are the anchor factors for the upper and lower limits of the oscillation; in the weekly dimension, it is expected to have narrow - amplitude fluctuations before the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the performance of the equity market and the trend of the capital market, and focus on varieties around 3Y and the opportunity for the narrowing of the spread between 30Y - 10Y Treasury bonds [18]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Funds Price - From January 23rd to January 29th, 2026, the central bank's net investment in the open - market exceeded 90 billion yuan. The MLF operation scale reached 90 billion yuan, with an over - quota renewal of 70 billion yuan. The total net investment of 3M and 6M repurchase with ownership transfer this month was 30 billion yuan. The funds price showed differentiation, with DR001 falling below 1.4%, DR007 rising to 1.59%, and the 3M inter - bank certificate of deposit rate remaining basically flat [9]. 3.2 Primary Market - From January 23rd to January 29th, 2026, 87 interest - rate bonds were issued in the primary market, with an actual issuance amount of 744.1 billion yuan. The issuance scale of special bonds continued to increase. Since the beginning of the year, the issuance term of local bonds has generally been extended, which may be a long - term feature throughout 2026, aiming to take advantage of the low - interest - rate window period and relieve the repayment pressure in recent years [11]. 3.3 Secondary Market - From January 23rd to January 29th, 2026, the bond market continued the previous strong - biased oscillation trend. In terms of the term structure, the yield of Treasury bonds around 5Y declined the most; the 1Y Treasury bonds were relatively weak, mainly affected by the overall increase in the funds price since the beginning of the year; the yield of 30Y Treasury bonds recovered. There were few substantial positive events in the bond market during the statistical period. Three pieces of information on the news were positive: the winning bid rate of MLF in January might decline; the market expected the central bank to launch a new overnight monetary policy tool; the market expected the central bank to significantly increase bond purchases in January [13]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Fundamentally, there is little fundamental data information at the beginning of the year, mainly focusing on the January PMI data and inflation data. If the January PMI month - on - month data improves again, the upper limit of the interest rate oscillation range needs to be further adjusted upward. - In terms of funds, the central bank has released trillions of funds through repurchase with ownership transfer and MLF. It is expected that the repurchase with ownership transfer in February will continue to be renewed in an over - quota manner, and the probability of a reserve requirement ratio cut before the Spring Festival will decrease accordingly. The funds price may continue to rise slightly at the beginning of February [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Copper, Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Canola Oil [1] - **Bearish**: None - **Neutral**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Alumina, Zinc, Non - ferrous Metals, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Platinum - Palladium, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Iron Ore, Other Metals, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Crude Oil, Bitumen, Shanghai Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Polyester Staple Fiber, Styrene, Methanol, PE, PP, PVC, SS, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Before the holiday, the domestic macro - level may be relatively calm, and market performance will be highly related to regulatory trends. The stock index is expected to have limited short - term shock adjustment space and mainly show a shock - strong trend [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Although the industrial drive is limited, the market risk preference has increased, and the prices of copper and aluminum are rising. The supply of domestic alumina is strong while demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - The cost center of zinc fundamentals is stabilizing, and there is room for a supplementary increase in zinc prices. The supply of Indonesian nickel ore is tightening, and short - term nickel prices are running at a high level [1]. - The supply of stainless - steel raw materials is unstable, and the futures are oscillating at a high level. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar has limited incremental supply in the first quarter, and there is upward potential for tin prices [1]. - Due to the tense geopolitical situation in Iran, the prices of precious metals have risen strongly, but short - term fluctuations are severe. The prices of platinum and palladium fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to allocate platinum at low prices [1]. - The production of industrial silicon in the northwest is increasing while that in the southwest is decreasing. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon in December has decreased [1]. - The new - energy vehicle market is in the off - season, but the energy - storage demand is strong. The price of lithium carbonate has risen significantly [1]. - The expected increase in rebar and iron - ore prices is not strong, and it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach. The supply and demand of other metals are in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation [1]. - The supply of soda ash is more relaxed in the medium term, and the price is under pressure. The market is pessimistic about the coking - coal 05 contract, and the previous low - buying strategy may need to be changed [1]. - The purchase rhythm of major consumer countries has started, and the price of palm oil is expected to be shock - strong. The fundamentals of domestic soybean oil are strong, and the price is bullish [1]. - The import of Canadian rapeseed is restricted, and the supply contradiction is not significantly alleviated. The cotton market is currently supported but lacks driving force [1]. - The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply is increasing. The upward momentum of corn prices before the holiday is insufficient [1]. - The Brazilian soybean supply is sufficient, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing up the soybean - meal price. The paper - pulp price has fallen, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - The price of logs is expected to have limited further decline space and will fluctuate within a certain range. The pig - production capacity needs to be further released [1]. - Due to OPEC+ suspending production increase, tense Middle - East geopolitics, and the US cold wave, the price of crude oil is affected [1]. - Bitumen follows the trend of crude oil, and its profit is relatively high. Shanghai rubber is driven by cost and market sentiment to rise [1]. - The fundamentals of BR rubber are mixed, with short - term wide - range fluctuations and medium - long - term upward expectations. The PTA and polyester staple - fiber markets are affected by the strong PX market [1]. - The price of styrene has rebounded, and the inventory pressure has decreased. The methanol market is affected by the Iranian situation and downstream feedback [1]. - The supply of PE and PP is under pressure, and the PVC market has both positive and negative factors. The SS market fundamentals are weak [1]. - The LPG market is affected by multiple factors, and the price is expected to weaken. The freight rate of container shipping on European routes has peaked and fallen before the holiday [1] 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index - Before the holiday, the domestic macro - level may be relatively calm, and market performance will be highly related to regulatory trends. The short - term shock adjustment space is limited, and it will mainly show a shock - strong trend [1] Treasury Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Copper - Although the industrial drive is limited, the market risk preference has increased, and copper prices have risen further [1] Aluminum - Recently, the industrial drive is limited, but the decline of the US dollar index supports the price. Coupled with the tense situation in the Middle East, which causes concerns about the supply side, aluminum prices are running strongly [1] Alumina - The supply of domestic alumina is strong while demand is weak, and the industrial situation is weak. The price is under pressure, but it is currently near the cost line and is expected to fluctuate [1] Zinc - The cost center of zinc fundamentals is stabilizing. Recently, the North American cold wave has increased energy prices, which is unfavorable for the resumption of overseas smelters. There is room for a supplementary increase in zinc prices [1] Non - ferrous Metals - The market risk preference has recovered, which boosts non - ferrous metals. The supply of Indonesian nickel ore is tightening, and short - term nickel prices are running at a high level, still affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous metals sector. In the medium - long term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect [1] Stainless Steel - The supply of raw - material nickel - iron prices has been rising continuously, the spot trading of stainless steel is weak, the speed of social - inventory reduction has slowed down, and the steel mills' production schedule in January has increased. The supply - side disturbances are repeated, and the stainless - steel futures are oscillating at a high level [1] Tin - In the short term, the market sentiment is changeable. Although the approval of explosives in Myanmar is a negative news, the incremental supply of tin ore in Myanmar in the first quarter is still limited. Under the situation of fragile supply and rigid demand, there is upward potential for tin prices [1] Precious Metals - Due to the tense geopolitical situation in Iran, the demand for hedging and the wave of de - dollarization have accelerated, and the prices of precious metals have risen strongly again. However, as the market sentiment has fermented to the extreme, the prices of gold and silver have plunged at a high level, with severe short - term fluctuations. It is recommended to participate with a light position [1] Platinum - Palladium - The macro - drive has weakened, and the liquidity is relatively insufficient, resulting in large price fluctuations of platinum and palladium. In the medium - long term, the supply - demand prospects of platinum and palladium are different. There is still a supply - demand gap for platinum, while palladium tends to have a loose supply. It is recommended to allocate platinum at low prices or focus on the [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy [1] Industrial Silicon - The production in the northwest is increasing while that in the southwest is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased [1] Polysilicon - The new - energy vehicle market is in the off - season, the energy - storage demand is strong, there is a rush for battery exports, and the price has risen significantly [1] Lithium Carbonate - The expected increase is strong, but the spot market is weak, and the sentiment has not been smoothly transmitted to the spot market. The upward momentum is insufficient [1] Rebar - The expected increase is strong, but the spot market is light, and the sentiment transmission to the spot is not smooth. The upward momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to close the long - single position and participate in the cash - and - carry arbitrage [1] Iron Ore - There is sector rotation, but the upward pressure on iron - ore prices is obvious. It is not recommended to chase up at this position [1] Other Metals - There is a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. The current supply and demand continue to be weak, but energy - consumption dual control and anti - involution may have an impact on the supply [1] Soda Ash - It mainly follows the trend of glass. The medium - term supply and demand are more relaxed, and the price is under pressure [1] Coking Coal - The market is pessimistic about the coking - coal 05 contract. After the first - round price increase of coke was shelved on Monday, funds began to anticipate the downstream's active de - stocking after the holiday. The short - position increased, and the price of coking - coal 05 broke through the previous important multi - empty boundary and support levels. The previous low - buying strategy may need to be changed [1] Coke - The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Palm Oil - The purchase rhythm of major consumer countries has started, and the production area is expected to reduce production and inventory. Coupled with the possible fermentation of the biodiesel theme, it is expected to be shock - strong [1] Soybean Oil - The fundamentals of domestic soybean oil are strong, and coupled with the rebound of US soybeans and positive news about US biodiesel, it is bullish [1] Canola Oil - Due to the influence of the US, the relationship between China and Canada is still uncertain, the continuous import of Canadian rapeseed is blocked, and the short - term supply contradiction is not significantly alleviated. Positive news about US biodiesel is beneficial to the oil market [1] Cotton - The domestic new - crop harvest is expected to be good, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate is low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid demand for replenishment. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new - crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "supported but lack of driving force" [1] Sugar - Globally, there is a sugar surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. The short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving force. Attention should be paid to the change in the capital side [1] Corn - Before the holiday, the stocking is almost over, the regional price difference is at a low level, and the domestic grain - reserve inventory is sufficient. The funds have taken profit, and the upward momentum of the futures price is insufficient. It is expected to fluctuate and回调 before the holiday [1] Soybean Meal - In February, there is an expectation of rainfall return in the Argentine production area, and the total supply of Brazilian soybeans is sufficient. The expected logistics congestion has postponed the selling pressure of Brazilian premiums. Unilaterally, there are no conditions for a significant trend - like increase. Currently, the domestic soybean - purchasing and crushing profit is at a high level, and from the perspective of crushing profit, the valuation of the soybean - meal futures is relatively high. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [1] Pulp - Today, the pulp price has fallen due to the decline of the commodity macro - market, but it has not broken through the oscillation range. The short - term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] Logs - The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottom - rebounding recently, and the futures price is expected to have limited further decline space. However, the January overseas offer has still slightly decreased, and the spot and futures markets of logs lack upward - driving factors. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1] Pigs - Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the slaughter weight not fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Crude Oil - OPEC+ has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has heated up, and the cold wave in the US has increased energy demand [1] Bitumen - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th - Five - Year Plan rush - work demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit of bitumen is relatively high [1] Shanghai Rubber - The raw - material cost has strong support, the sharp rise of synthetic rubber has driven the sector to strengthen, and the overall atmosphere of the commodity market is bullish [1] BR Rubber - The cost - end butadiene still has strong bottom support, and the overseas cracking - device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long - term domestic butadiene export expectation. Recently, the profit of private cis - butadiene rubber plants has been severely lost, and the expectation of maintenance and production reduction has increased, and the short - term downstream negative feedback has been gradually realized. Fundamentally, butadiene is in the process of inventory reduction, and the high inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is still a potential negative factor. Attention should be paid to the pre - Spring - Festival inventory reduction of cis - butadiene rubber and the performance of butadiene inventory. The short - term futures price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation and a callback, and there is an upward expectation for BR in the medium - long term [1] PTA - The PX market has strongly led the rise of chemical products, and a large amount of funds have flowed into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cycle reversal" narrative, the market has significantly increased the allocation of chemical products. Polyester has led the rise of the entire chemical sector. The domestic PTA production has continued to increase, there is no new PTA production capacity in China, the domestic PTA has maintained a high - operation rate, the domestic demand has declined, and the production reduction of polyester factories has had a limited negative feedback on PTA [1] Polyester Staple Fiber - The PX market has strongly led the rise of chemical products, and a large amount of funds have flowed into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cycle reversal" narrative, the market has significantly increased the allocation of chemical products. Polyester has led the rise of the entire chemical sector. The domestic PTA production has continued to increase, there is no new PTA production capacity in China, the domestic PTA has maintained a high - operation rate, the domestic demand has declined, and the price of polyester staple fiber continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations [1] Styrene - There is news that the styrene plant in the Middle East has shut down. As the supply - demand fundamentals of styrene have improved marginally, the styrene futures price has rebounded rapidly. The Asian styrene market has stabilized, supported by the increase in domestic export opportunities and the rise of domestic prices. The styrene - benzene price difference has widened, and the economy has been slightly repaired. The styrene inventory has decreased, and the overall inventory pressure has been reduced [1] Methanol - Methanol is generally affected by the situation in Iran, and it is expected that the future import will decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious, with both long and short factors intertwined. The downstream MTO leading plant has shut down, and some enterprises have reduced production, but Fude will restart on January 25th. The situation in Iran has eased, but the risk cannot be completely ruled out. Affected by the cold air, the freight in the inland area has increased, and the northwest enterprises have a large pressure to reduce inventory and sell at a reduced price [1] PE - The overseas ethylene glycol price has rebounded after a long - term slump. The reduction of ethylene glycol exports in the Middle East has boosted market confidence. A 1.8 - million - ton ethylene glycol plant in Jiangsu plans to switch the production of a 900,000 - ton EG production line in mid - February due to profit reasons. Driven by this news, the speculative demand in the market has significantly increased [1] PP - There are few maintenance operations, the operation load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The downstream improvement is less than expected. The price has returned to a reasonable range. The geopolitical conflict has intensified, and there is a risk of crude - oil price increase [1] PVC - In 2026, the global new production capacity is relatively small, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. The fundamentals are poor. The export tax rebate has been cancelled, and there may be a phenomenon of rushing for exports later. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the elimination of PVC production capacity [1] SS - The macro - sentiment has temporarily subsided, and the futures price is expected to react to the fundamentals again. The fundamentals are weak, and the absolute price is at a low level. The factory is facing continuous inventory accumulation, and the spot price may still be reduced [1] LPG - The March CP is expected to decline compared with February, and the futures sentiment will switch between fundamentals and sentiment. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has cooled down, and the short - term risk premium has declined. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave is gradually weakening, the futures price is expected to weaken, and the basis is expected to gradually widen. The domestic PDH operation rate has declined, the profit is expected to be seasonally repaired, the global civil - combustion rigid demand is stable, the demand for MTBE

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For stock index futures, the index opportunities are better than individual stocks. The equity market was differentiated on Thursday, with the dividend and large-cap styles being strong, and the science and technology innovation and micro-cap styles being weak. The strong sectors were concentrated in real estate, media, and liquor. The cancellation of the "three red lines" had a positive impact on pro - cyclical sectors. There is a concentration of profit - making effects, and it is recommended to focus on the price - increase chain and prioritize the allocation of IC long positions [1][6]. - For stock index options, there was an intraday style switch, and option trading volume rebounded. After the market style switch, the skewness of each variety remained low, and the volatility remained high. It is recommended to wait for the opportunity to sell options and hold long call options for the time being [2][6]. - For treasury bond futures, the short - end of the bond market showed a strong trend. The central bank's net injection of liquidity supported the short - end of the bond market, while the rising risk appetite in the equity market was negative for the long - end. The long - end trend is uncertain and may remain volatile. Short - term strategies may focus on arbitrage and the convergence opportunity of the 30 - 10Y treasury bond term spread [3][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Thursday, the equity market was differentiated. The dividend and large - cap styles were strong, and the science and technology innovation and micro - cap styles were weak. The strong sectors were in real estate, media, and liquor. The cancellation of the "three red lines" was an important factor for the market rebound. There were more falling stocks than rising stocks, with nearly a thousand stocks falling more than 3%. The profit - making effect was concentrated [1][6]. - **Outlook and Suggestion**: Apart from the inflation theme, there is no core logical change. In the context of a weakening US dollar, it is recommended to focus on the price - increase chain and prioritize the allocation of IC long positions [1][6]. (2) Stock Index Options - **Market Situation**: The underlying market oscillated in the morning and had a style switch in the afternoon. Large - cap blue - chips represented by the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 rose significantly, while CSI 500 and CSI 1000 - related varieties fell. Option trading volume rebounded. The 50ETF volatility did not rise significantly after the increase, and the seller's cautious attitude wavered [2][6]. - **Outlook and Suggestion**: After the market movement, the skewness of each variety remained low, and the volatility remained high. It is recommended to wait for the opportunity to sell options and hold long call options for the time being [2][6]. (3) Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Situation**: Most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures rose. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds were differentiated, with long - term bonds being weak and short - term bonds being strong, and the yield curve steepened. The central bank's net injection of liquidity supported the short - end of the bond market, while the rising equity market was negative for the long - end [3][7]. - **Outlook and Suggestion**: The central bank still cares about the money market, and the end - of - month factor may have limited impact on the money market. The long - end trend is uncertain and may remain volatile. Short - term strategies may focus on arbitrage and the convergence opportunity of the 30 - 10Y treasury bond term spread [3][7].