1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, stock index futures have risen sharply due to policy, capital, and sentiment factors, but corporate earnings have not significantly improved, so be wary of adjustments caused by profit - taking. Gold rebounds in the short - term, but pay attention to increased volatility risks. In the medium - to long - term, the stock index maintains a wide - range oscillation, and gold faces a risk of deep adjustment [32]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data - From January to July this year, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and the inventory of finished products increased by 2.4% year - on - year, with the growth rate falling for four consecutive months, indicating insufficient terminal demand and high operating pressure on downstream enterprises [4]. 3.2 Stock Index Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Corporate Earnings - The decline in the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size has narrowed marginally, but there is a differentiation in operating efficiency among different industries. The profits of high - end and equipment manufacturing industries maintain rapid growth, while those of industries such as textiles, chemical fibers, and plastics decline more [15]. 3.2.2 Capital - The margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has exceeded 2.2 trillion yuan, hitting a record high. The central bank has carried out 2273.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase and 600 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations this week, achieving a net investment of 496.1 billion yuan [19]. 3.3 Gold Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Risk - free Interest Rate: Holding Cost, Inflation Level - In the US, durable goods orders decreased by 2.8% month - on - month in July, and the consumer confidence index dropped from 98.7 to 97.4 in August, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activities and pressure on employment. The market has repeatedly digested the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, and the US Treasury yield has declined slightly [22]. 3.3.2 US Consumer Confidence Index, Employment Situation - Affected by Trump's tariff policy, US manufacturing activities have slowed down significantly, downstream durable goods orders have declined, and employment is under pressure [22]. 3.3.3 Domestic and Foreign Gold Inventory Situation - Shanghai gold futures warehouse receipts and inventory have increased significantly, while New York futures inventory has continued to decline, and market bullish sentiment has cooled [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the factors affecting the bond market. The positive factors include a stable and loose capital supply, which provides continuous liquidity support and eases the pressure on the bond market, and the slower - than - expected issuance of government bonds, which reduces supply and eases concerns about the "asset shortage". The negative factors are that the manufacturing PMI has risen above 50, enhancing the expectation of economic improvement and suppressing the demand for bonds, and the 10 - year treasury bond variety has undergone shock adjustments, increasing the potential profit - taking pressure and weighing on market sentiment. The trading advice is to pay attention to the allocation value of the 10 - year treasury bond yield in the range of 1.75% - 1.80% and seize the trading opportunities [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Figures 3.1 Bond Yields - The report presents the trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond yields from 2024/04 to 2025/04 [4]. 3.2 Interest Rates - The trends of the weighted average interest rate of pledged repurchase by deposit - taking institutions for 1 - day and 7 - day, and the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate from 2023/12 to 2025/06 are shown [4]. 3.3 Bond Term Spreads - The trends of the 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y treasury bond term spreads from 2024/04 to 2025/04 are presented [4]. 3.4 Bond Futures Positions - The positions of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures from 2015/12 to 2023/12 are shown [6]. 3.5 Bond Futures Trading Volumes - The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures from 2024/04 to 2025/04 are presented [7]. 3.6 Bond Futures Basis - The trends of the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures for the current - quarter contracts are shown from different time periods: 02/29 - 10/31 for 2 - year, 2024/04 - 2025/04 for 5 - year, 02/29 - 10/31 for 10 - year, and 2023/06 - 2025/06 for 30 - year [8][9][10][14]. 3.7 Bond Futures Inter - delivery Spreads - The trends of the inter - delivery spreads (current - quarter minus next - quarter) of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are presented from different time periods: 2024/04 - 2025/04 for 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year, and 2023/06 - 2025/06 for 30 - year [12][13][15][16]. 3.8 Bond Futures Cross - variety Spreads - The trends of the cross - variety spreads of TS*4 - T from 2024/04 to 2025/04 and T*3 - TL from 2023/06 to 2025/06 are presented [17][18].

Group 1 - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) has increased by 0.19%, with the latest price at 120.61 yuan, indicating active market trading [1] - The trading volume for the 30-year Treasury ETF reached 64.80 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 21.69%, and an average daily trading volume of 117.88 billion yuan over the past week [1] - The latest scale of the 30-year Treasury ETF has reached 29.847 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception, with the latest share count at 248 million shares [1] Group 2 - The net inflow of funds into the 30-year Treasury ETF is 3.81 billion yuan, with a total of 20.31 billion yuan net inflow over the last five trading days [1] - Institutions generally believe that the probability of a significant rise in interest rates is low, and the bond market is expected to show a "grinding top" trend in the short term [1] - The current 10-year Treasury yield has risen to over 1.78%, making it attractive for insurance and other institutional investors, which may limit the upward space for long-term interest rates [1] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China has shown intentions to support liquidity through reverse repos and large-scale MLF operations, which is expected to maintain a stable and loose liquidity environment [1]

2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 8 月 29 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡 | 全面降息可能性下降，加上股市 风险偏好上升 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各国债期货均震荡小幅下跌。由于今年下半年货币政策强调落实落细为主，且以结构 性宽松为主，全面降息的可能性下降。资金面，股市风险偏好上升吸引 ...

Group 1 - The benchmark government bond ETF (511100) has seen a slight decline of 0.08% as of August 28, 2025, with a latest price of 108.47 yuan. Over the past week, it has accumulated a rise of 0.37% [1] - In terms of capital inflow, the benchmark government bond ETF has experienced continuous net inflows over the past three days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 529 million yuan, totaling 709 million yuan in capital absorption, indicating significant low-level bargain hunting [1] - The latest scale of the benchmark government bond ETF has reached a record high of 3.409 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - According to Dongfang Jincheng's analysis, the current yield on 10-year government bonds has risen to over 1.78%, making it attractive for institutional investors such as insurance companies, which will limit the upward space for long-term interest rates [1] - Recent actions by the central bank, including reverse repos and large-scale MLF renewals, indicate a commitment to maintaining liquidity, which is expected to support the bond market, particularly short-term bonds [1] - The benchmark government bond ETF is a distinctive product covering multiple key duration government bonds, primarily tracking the Shanghai Stock Exchange benchmark market-making government bond index, with a total of 24 constituent bonds selected from various maturities [1]

国债期货日报 | 2025-08-27 权益回调，国债期货大多收涨 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：7月政治局会议明确提出要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，依法依 规治理企业无序竞争，积极稳妥化解地方政府债务风险，严禁新增隐性债务等一些列政策指引；2025年8月1日， 财政部与税务总局发布公告称，自2025年8月8日起，对在该日及以后新发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券的 利息收入将恢复征收增值税。此前已发行的上述债券（包括8月8日后续发行的部分）仍享受免征增值税政策，直 至到期。（2）通胀：7月CPI同比持平。 资金面：（3）财政：2025年上半年，全国财政运行总体平稳，支出扩张力度加大、收支结构持续优化。一般公共 预算收入达11.56万亿元，同比微降0.3%，其中税收收入占比超八成，尽管总体下降1.2%，但增值税、消费税、个 税等主要税种保持增长，显示税源恢复态势逐步确立。支出方面，一般公共预算支出14.13万亿元，同比增长3.4%， 聚焦社会保障、教育、科技、卫生等民生和发展重点领域。政府性基金预算支出同比大增30%，其中中央特别国债 和专项债资金加快投放带动基建投入；尽管土地出让收入 ...

Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.47%, the 10-year main contract increasing by 0.06%, the 5-year main contract up by 0.04%, and the 2-year main contract gaining 0.01% [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds generally declined, with the 50-year government bond "25 Long Special Government Bond 03" yield down by 2.75 basis points to 2.10%, the 30-year government bond "25 Long Special Government Bond 02" yield down by 1.75 basis points to 1.98%, the 10-year policy bank bond "25 Policy Bank 10" yield down by 0.7 basis points to 1.84%, and the 10-year government bond "23 Coupon Government Bond 11" yield down by 0.85 basis points to 1.7560% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 405.8 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40% on August 26, with 580.3 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 174.5 billion yuan [2] - The interbank market remains liquid, with the overnight repo weighted average rate dropping over 3 basis points to around 1.31%, and non-bank institutions' pledged certificates and credit bonds borrowing overnight quoted around 1.4%, with seven-day rates at approximately 1.51-1.52%, slightly lower than the previous day [2] - The central bank's continued support has led to a return to a stable and loose liquidity environment, with expectations for a smooth transition across month-end [2] Operational Suggestions - The stock market experienced a pullback, while the bond market's response to stock market fluctuations has softened, coupled with a loosening funding environment, leading to a continued recovery in bond market sentiment [3] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to face resistance around 1.78%-1.80%, with corresponding support for the T2512 contract in the range of 107.4-107.6, although short-term market expectations may still experience volatility [3] - A strategy of light long positions on bond futures during pullbacks is suggested [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the six core factors influencing stock market trends, focusing specifically on the capital market, which includes accelerated entry of insurance funds, a shift of household savings towards the stock market, active but controlled leverage funds, and a clear trend of foreign capital inflow [2][4]. Group 1: Capital Market Factors - Insurance funds are accelerating their entry into the market, with equity investment scale surpassing 4.7 trillion yuan as of August 22, 2025, an increase of 622.3 billion yuan from the end of last year. The current allocation ratio is only 20.1%, significantly below the regulatory cap of 50% [5]. - Household savings are beginning to shift towards the stock market, with a reduction of 1.1 trillion yuan in household deposits in July 2025, while non-bank deposits increased by 2.14 trillion yuan. This indicates a signal of fund activation [6]. - Leverage funds are active but with manageable risks, as the margin trading balance reached 2.048 trillion yuan as of August 14, 2025, the highest since July 2015, but with a lower leverage ratio of 80% compared to 50% in 2015 [6]. Group 2: Foreign Capital Inflow - There is a clear trend of foreign capital inflow, with northbound trading daily average turnover exceeding 200 billion yuan in July, a 36% increase month-on-month, and a net inflow of 2.7 billion USD for the month [7]. - Global allocation adjustments are occurring, as indicated by Federal Reserve Chair Powell's remarks on potential interest rate cuts, which may weaken the dollar and attract foreign investment into Chinese assets [7]. Group 3: Long-term Market Implications - If the A-share market can establish a "long bull slow bull" trend, it will significantly impact the Chinese economy and society by activating consumer momentum and enhancing economic recovery through wealth effects [9]. - A stable market environment will empower technological innovation and industrial upgrades by broadening financing channels for tech companies, supporting R&D investments [10]. - It will accelerate the internationalization of the renminbi, creating a closed loop of "trade-investment" in renminbi, making A-shares a core asset for foreign institutions [10].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market continues its upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3,800 points, reaching a ten-year high, indicating a potential for sustained growth depending on key factors [1] Group 1: Policy Factors - The market may be influenced by potential government policies in the third quarter aimed at stimulating service consumption, easing real estate demand, or increasing debt measures, which could boost economic confidence [1] Group 2: Earnings Factors - The upcoming mid-August to late-August period will see a concentrated disclosure of mid-year reports, and if companies can confirm earnings in the third quarter, it will provide solid support for the market [1] Group 3: Funding Factors - There is a general expectation that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in September, which could open a window for global liquidity easing; however, fluctuations in Federal Reserve policies should be monitored [1]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed signs of recovery with increased buying from funds, as liquidity conditions improved following the end of the tax payment period, leading to a decrease in funding costs [1][5]. Market Performance - The majority of government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.34%, and the 10-year and 5-year contracts both increasing by 0.06% [2]. - The interbank market saw a slight divergence in early trading, but yields generally declined in the afternoon, with the 30-year government bond yield decreasing by 2.45 basis points [2]. Overseas Market Trends - In North America, most U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield down by 1.94 basis points to 4.287% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly rose, while in the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds from France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all decreased [3]. Primary Market Activity - The Export-Import Bank's 1-year fixed-rate bond had a winning bid rate of 1.2991%, with a total bid-to-cover ratio of 2.44 [4]. - The China Development Bank's 3-year and 7-year financial bonds had winning bid rates of 1.6599% and 1.8451%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.89 and 4.61 [4]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation with a total amount of 2,530 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 1,243 billion yuan for the day [5]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate down by 0.7 basis points to 1.466% [5]. Institutional Insights - Institutions noted that while bond fund shares may decrease temporarily, they are expected to rebound as the stock market matures [6]. - The trading volume of convertible bonds has significantly increased, indicating heightened market activity, although high valuations may suppress further buying [7]. - The current focus in the bond market is on defensive strategies, with a recommendation to avoid certain long-duration bonds while considering short to medium-term opportunities [7].