1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is favorable, and the prices of finished steel products continue to show a volatile and upward - trending pattern [11][12] - Overseas, after the Fed's interest - rate meeting, the monetary policy stance is cautious, falling short of market expectations. A preventive interest - rate cut has begun, and market expectations are gradually being met. Short - term market sentiment has cooled slightly, while long - term global liquidity easing is expected to drive the recovery of the manufacturing industry, indirectly boosting steel demand. The marginal impact of interest - rate cuts on total steel demand remains [11][12] - Domestically, the economic data in August slowed down and were lower than expected, increasing the possibility of introducing more stimulus policies. The real - estate sales performance is weak, and it will take time for the real - estate market to stabilize. Export volume decreased slightly last week and is generally in a weak and volatile state [11][12] - In terms of fundamentals, the output of rebar decreased, apparent demand increased slightly, and inventory pressure was marginally relieved; the output of hot - rolled coils increased, apparent demand was neutral, and inventory increased slightly. Currently, the demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coils is weak, and the peak - season demand is not strong. Overall, although it has entered the traditional peak season, the demand for rebar remains weak, and while hot - rolled coils have some resilience, they are still generally weak. Steel mill profits are gradually narrowing, and if demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may still decline. The raw - material end is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the policy trends of the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session [11][12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Cost End - The profit of hot - rolled coil blast furnaces is 67 yuan/ton, a slight increase compared to last week. The spot price is about 26 yuan/ton higher than the futures price, and the valuation is neutral [7] 3.2 Supply End - This week, the output of hot - rolled coils was 3.26 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 14,000 tons, about an 8.0% year - on - year increase compared to the same week last year, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.2%. The daily average output of hot metal was 2.4055 million tons, and hot - metal output has remained above 2.4 million tons. Currently, the output of hot - rolled coils is relatively high, and it is necessary to monitor whether demand can absorb the output [8] 3.3 Demand End - This week, the consumption of hot - rolled coils was 3.22 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 43,000 tons, about a 1.9% year - on - year increase compared to the same week last year, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.6%. Overall demand is neutral, and exports currently have some resilience [9][116] 3.4 Inventory - This week, the inventory of hot - rolled coils was 3.7799 million tons, and the inventory was marginally reduced [10] 3.5 Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [13]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% marks the beginning of a monetary easing cycle, which will have significant implications for global liquidity, capital flows, and exchange rate dynamics, particularly affecting China's economic recovery efforts [1][4][10]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Decision - The 25 basis point rate cut reflects a careful balance between persistent inflation and economic growth challenges, with a 96.1% probability of this outcome predicted by CME Group data prior to the meeting [4]. - The Fed's cautious approach aims to avoid reigniting inflation expectations while providing room for future adjustments based on economic conditions [5][6]. Global Impact - The Fed's rate cut will lead to a depreciation of the US dollar, which fell to 96.22, the lowest since February 2022, affecting commodity prices and creating opportunities for resource-exporting countries while increasing production costs for manufacturing nations like China and Germany [8][9]. - International capital flows are expected to shift towards emerging markets as the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets declines, potentially boosting stock and bond markets in those regions [9]. Implications for China - The weakening dollar may enhance the competitiveness of Chinese exports while reducing the costs of imported commodities, benefiting manufacturing sectors [10]. - However, the potential for the renminbi to appreciate poses challenges for export-oriented businesses, particularly those reliant on low-cost advantages [10][11]. - The narrowing of interest rate differentials may alleviate capital outflow pressures, providing short-term support for China's capital markets [10]. Policy Recommendations for China - China should maintain monetary policy autonomy while ensuring liquidity remains adequate, focusing on targeted measures to support sectors like technology and small enterprises [14]. - To address the dual challenges of exports and imports, China should promote industry upgrades and enhance the competitiveness of its exports through innovation and technology [14][15]. - Long-term capital attraction should focus on institutional reforms rather than short-term incentives, ensuring a stable and transparent investment environment [15]. Conclusion - The Fed's rate cut signifies a transition from a high-interest rate environment to a more accommodative one, providing a temporary easing of external pressures for China [16]. - However, sustainable economic growth in China will depend on strengthening internal drivers, including technological independence and structural upgrades [16].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced its first interest rate cut of the year, lowering rates by 25 basis points, which did not meet President Trump's expectations [5][8] - The decision was made with an unexpected unity within the Federal Reserve, passing with a vote of 11 to 1 despite external political pressures [8][12] - Powell's "risk management" approach to the rate cut aims to prevent further economic decline, reflecting a strategic decision in a politically charged environment [10][11] Group 2 - The voting results from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting indicated a temporary victory for the Fed's independence, as the majority supported the rate cut despite potential political interference [13][14] - The internal divisions within the Fed were highlighted, with varying opinions on the extent of the rate cut, indicating ongoing debates about monetary policy [14][17] - Market reactions to the rate cut included a brief spike in gold prices and fluctuations in the dollar index, suggesting mixed investor sentiment regarding the Fed's future actions [20][23] Group 3 - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the recent military actions in Gaza have led to significant humanitarian crises, with reports of mass displacements among the Palestinian population [36][37] - The U.S. government's recent decision to impose a $100,000 fee on H-1B visa applications aims to ensure that foreign workers possess high skills and to encourage the training of local talent [27][28] - Nvidia's $5 billion investment in Intel marks a significant shift in the semiconductor industry, transforming competitors into allies amid the ongoing AI boom [38]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate cut, reflecting its "survival wisdom" under political pressure from the White House, particularly from Trump, who has remained unusually silent on the matter [1][4][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was passed with a surprising 11-1 vote, showcasing unexpected unity within the institution despite external pressures [2][10]. - Powell characterized the rate cut as a "risk management decision," indicating that the Fed believes its policies have been on the right track this year [6][19]. - The recent adjustment comes amid a backdrop of significant downward revisions in non-farm employment data, with a reduction of 910,000 jobs, highlighting the economic challenges faced [7][19]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - The meeting was described as a "showdown" between the Federal Reserve and the White House, with Powell managing to maintain internal unity despite the political climate [9][10]. - The vote reflected a temporary victory for the Fed's independence, as the majority of members supported the rate cut despite potential pressures from Trump [10][12]. - The only dissenting vote came from a newly appointed member who advocated for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut, indicating ongoing divisions within the Fed [11][13]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The rate cut is seen as a preventive measure to safeguard economic growth before a potential recession, with Powell acknowledging signs of a weakening job market [18][19]. - Historical precedents for preventive rate cuts have led to varied outcomes, including soft landings, recessions, and high inflation, raising questions about the current economic trajectory [21][26]. - Analysts express concerns that the current economic issues stem from rising costs rather than insufficient demand, suggesting that excessive monetary easing could exacerbate inflation [27][28].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate cut, reflecting its "survival wisdom" under political pressure from the White House, particularly from Trump, who has remained unusually silent on this decision [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was passed with a surprising 11-1 vote, showcasing unexpected unity within the institution despite external pressures [1][7]. - The rate cut is characterized as a "preemptive cut" aimed at managing risks before a potential economic downturn occurs [14][18]. - Powell's statements during the announcement emphasized that the rate cut was a "risk management decision" and downplayed expectations for rapid adjustments to interest rates [6][18]. Group 2: Economic Context and Implications - Recent adjustments to employment data, with a downward revision of 911,000 jobs, indicate a weakening labor market, prompting the Fed's decision to cut rates to prevent further economic decline [6][10]. - Historical precedents of preemptive rate cuts have led to varied outcomes, including soft landings, recessions, and high inflation, raising questions about the potential consequences of the current cut [15][17]. - The current economic environment is marked by persistent inflation pressures, particularly in the service sector, complicating the Fed's decision to lower rates [17][23]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the rate cut announcement, gold prices initially surged to a historical high before retreating, indicating market reactions to the Fed's signals [18][24]. - The dollar index fell to its lowest point since February 2022 but began to recover after Powell's remarks, suggesting a complex market response to the Fed's actions [18][23]. - Analysts predict that the 10-year Treasury yield will stabilize around 4.4% in the coming years, with the Fed expected to gradually lower the federal funds rate [23].

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the performance of copper prices during the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycles since 1989, highlighting that copper price movements are influenced by market expectations formed after rate cuts and the fundamental supply-demand dynamics of copper itself [3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Cycle Overview - Since 1989, including the upcoming cycle starting in 2024, the Federal Reserve has initiated a total of seven rate cut cycles, each with distinct macroeconomic backgrounds and impacts [4][5]. - The rate cut cycles can be categorized into three types: preventive cuts, recessionary cuts, and emergency cuts, each differing in their triggers, paths, and outcomes [5][6]. Group 2: Copper Price Performance Analysis - The analysis of copper price performance before and after the first rate cut reveals that copper prices tend to be strong in the 4-8 months leading up to the cut, but weaken in the last 4 months before the cut [7]. - During the rate cut cycle, copper prices do not show a clear trend, fluctuating due to changing market expectations regarding economic recovery [9][12]. - After the last rate cut, copper prices exhibit more significant trends, often rising sharply as market expectations shift following the completion of the rate cuts [12][15]. Group 3: Conclusions and Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve's rate cut actions do not directly dictate copper price movements; instead, prices are primarily driven by market expectations and the fundamental supply-demand balance [15][17]. - The most favorable macroeconomic scenario for copper prices is characterized by a "weak but not declining" U.S. economy combined with improving rate cut expectations, which could lead to further price increases if inflation and employment data support the Fed's rate cut outlook [17].

Index Performance - The CSI A500 Index experienced a slight increase of 0.02%, closing at 5433.29 points on September 19 [5] - The average daily trading volume for the week was 9126.33 billion yuan, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.7% [5] Component Stocks Performance - The top ten gainers for the week included: - Junsheng Electronics (600699.SH) with a rise of 44.25% - Shanghai Construction (600170.SH) up by 31.70% - Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050.SZ) increasing by 20.72% [3] - The top ten losers for the week included: - Northern Rare Earth (600111.SH) down by 12.20% - Junshi Biosciences (688180.SH) decreasing by 9.84% - Xiamen Tungsten (000960.SZ) falling by 9.45% [3] Fund Performance - A total of 39 CSI A500 funds mostly saw increases, with the top performer being Guolian An with a rise of 0.424% [5] - The total scale of CSI A500 funds reached 1865.27 billion yuan, with the largest funds being Huatai Baichuan (221.82 billion yuan), Guotai Fund (204.94 billion yuan), and E Fund (204.55 billion yuan) [5] Economic Context - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% on September 17, restarting the rate cut cycle [6] - Short-term market expectations for rate cuts have been largely priced in, potentially leading to volatility as actual policy effects and economic data unfold [6] - In the medium to long term, the Fed's rate cuts are expected to positively impact the A-share market, with a stronger yuan improving foreign investment sentiment [6]

Index Performance - The CSI A500 Index experienced a slight increase of 0.02%, closing at 5433.29 points on September 19 [5] - The average daily trading volume for the week was 9126.33 billion yuan, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.7% [5] Top Performing Stocks - The top ten stocks with the highest gains this week included: - Junsheng Electronics (600699 SH) with a gain of 44.25% - Shanghai Construction (600170 SH) with a gain of 31.70% - Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050 SZ) with a gain of 20.72% [3] Underperforming Stocks - The ten stocks with the largest declines included: - Northern Rare Earth (600111 SH) with a drop of 12.20% - Junshi Biosciences (688180 SH) with a drop of 9.84% - Xiamen Tungsten (600549 SH) with a drop of 8.61% [3] Fund Performance - Most CSI A500 funds saw an increase, with the top performer being the China United Asset Management fund, which rose by 0.424% [6] - The total scale of CSI A500 funds reached 1865.27 billion yuan, with the largest funds being Huatai-PB, Guotai Fund, and E Fund, with sizes of 221.82 billion yuan, 204.94 billion yuan, and 204.55 billion yuan respectively [6] Economic Context - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% on September 17, restarting its rate-cutting cycle [7] - Short-term market conditions may face volatility due to the anticipation of rate cuts, while long-term prospects for A-shares are positive due to improved risk appetite and a stronger renminbi [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's preventive interest rate cut was less dovish than expected, leading to a pullback in gold prices, although market expectations for further rate cuts this year continue to support gold prices [1][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points and indicated two more cuts totaling 50 basis points for the year [1] - The Fed removed the statement regarding a robust labor market and acknowledged rising risks to employment, admitting to an economic slowdown and soft consumer spending [1] - The Fed's future rate path will depend on economic data, indicating a shift towards prioritizing employment over inflation [1] Group 2: Gold Price Movements - Gold prices reached a historical high but faced pressure and declined, with a significant drop of nearly $40 from $3670 to a low of $3628 [1] - Current support levels for gold are at $3652, $3633, and $3600, while resistance levels are at $3674 and $3700 [1][3] - Despite the recent pullback, gold remains above $3600, indicating that the overall upward trend has not been compromised [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Short-term technical indicators suggest a need for adjustment after consecutive price increases, aligning with the current high-level fluctuations in gold prices [3] - The 5-day moving average is showing signs of slowing, and MACD indicators are turning down, indicating potential short-term weakness [3] - The market is advised to adopt a range-bound trading strategy, focusing on key support and resistance levels [3]

Domestic Developments - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange announced reforms to enhance cross-border investment and financing, increasing the convenience and limits for such activities[7] - Nine government departments released 19 specific measures to boost service consumption, aiming to direct public finance and market capital towards key infrastructure and emerging industries[9] - From January to August, national public budget revenue reached 148,198 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, while expenditure grew by 3.1%[11] International Developments - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, aligning with market expectations, marking a total reduction of 125 basis points in the current easing cycle[22] - The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for the Eurozone rose to 26.1 in September, indicating improved investor confidence in the European economy[18] - U.S. retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month-on-month, surpassing market expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 2.1% after adjusting for CPI[20] Market Trends - Brent crude oil prices increased by 1.70% week-on-week, while iron ore and copper prices rose by 0.33% and 0.80%, respectively[25] - Real estate sales saw a significant week-on-week increase of 10.31%, indicating a rebound in the housing market[30] - The average price of rebar rose by 0.58% week-on-week, while cement prices slightly decreased by 0.05%[30]