Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for key companies in the AI and cloud infrastructure sectors [8] Core Insights - The report emphasizes two main investment lines: cloud infrastructure service providers benefiting from downstream demand and application scenario commercialization, particularly in advertising and vertical applications [17][19] - The rapid growth in token usage for AI models indicates a strong demand for AI applications, with significant increases in daily token calls for major platforms [18][26] - The report highlights the cost advantages of domestic AI models compared to international counterparts, with prices approximately 50% lower, facilitating broader market penetration [31][35] Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies, including Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, Kuaishou, and others, indicating strong growth potential in the AI and cloud sectors [11] Cloud Infrastructure - Cloud infrastructure is identified as the foundational layer for AI applications, with major players like Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent developing comprehensive capabilities to support AI development [19][42] - The report notes that the cost of cloud computing is significantly lower than building in-house capabilities, enhancing the attractiveness of cloud services for AI development [19] AI Application Commercialization - The commercialization of AI in advertising is highlighted, with AI technologies improving efficiency and effectiveness in ad campaigns, leading to increased ROI for advertisers [20][21] - Vertical applications of AI are also expanding, with significant advancements in sectors such as video generation, recruitment, and office automation, showcasing the versatility and market potential of AI technologies [21][24] Market Dynamics - The report contrasts the focus on large model technology with the importance of application scenarios for AI commercialization, suggesting that companies with strong scene-based applications will have a competitive edge [22][25] - The increasing integration of AI into industry workflows is expected to drive demand for customized B-end services, which are seen as critical for differentiation in the market [23][24]

Group 1: Core Views - The divergence between Hang Seng Tech stocks (e.g., Tencent, Alibaba) and "Old Economy Stocks" (e.g., China Shenhua, Midea Group) is becoming more pronounced, with tech stocks benefiting from accelerated AI commercialization and valuation recovery expectations, while old economy stocks rely on low valuations and stable cash flows [3][4]. Group 2: Hang Seng Tech Stocks (Tencent, Alibaba) - **Tencent:** - Social ecosystem monopoly with over 1.3 billion monthly active users on WeChat, creating a closed loop of "payment-content-mini programs-games," enhancing monetization capabilities [4]. - AI technology implementation with a threefold increase in the accuracy of the mixed Yuan model 3.0, reducing computing costs and empowering game development and industrial design [5]. - Stable cash flow from gaming business, supporting long-term investments in AI research and ecosystem expansion [6]. - **Alibaba:** - Synergy between cloud and e-commerce, with Alibaba Cloud's AI revenue growing for eight consecutive quarters, capturing 47% of China's public cloud market [7]. - Globalization strategy with cross-border e-commerce accounting for 12% of revenue, benefiting from reduced tariffs and partnerships to mitigate chip supply uncertainties [7]. - Technical and capital advantages through a multi-chip strategy, reinforcing computing infrastructure and optimizing e-commerce efficiency [7]. - **Future Trends:** - Accelerated AI commercialization will drive revenue growth in advertising, gaming, and industrial sectors, with significant profit elasticity [8]. - Valuation recovery potential with current P/E ratios for Tencent and Alibaba at approximately 25x and 19x, respectively, supported by earnings growth [8]. - Continuous inflow of funds from Hong Kong Stock Connect, with net purchases exceeding 30 billion HKD in Q3, alongside expectations of liquidity easing from the Federal Reserve [8]. Group 3: "Old Economy Stocks" (China Shenhua, Midea Group) - **China Shenhua:** - Resource endowment and cost control as a coal industry leader, benefiting from rigid demand during the energy transition [9]. - High dividend yield exceeding 5%, providing stable returns during economic downturns, attracting conservative investors [9]. - Despite pressure from renewable energy, coal remains a "ballast" in the power structure in the short term [11]. - **Midea Group:** - Supply chain and brand advantages with a leading global market share in home appliances, particularly over 30% in air conditioning [12]. - Globalization through the acquisition of KUKA (industrial robots), with over 40% of revenue from overseas, diversifying market risks [13]. - Stable cash flow from the strong demand for home appliances, enhanced by buybacks and dividends [14]. - **Future Trends:** - Growth bottlenecks in the home appliance industry, with expected growth of 5%-8% by 2025, requiring Midea to rely on high-end products and overseas markets [15]. - Valuation at historical lows with P/E ratios of approximately 15x for China Shenhua and 13x for Midea Group, but earnings growth may not support significant valuation increases [15]. - Policy risks in the coal industry due to carbon neutrality goals, alongside challenges in the home appliance sector from raw material price fluctuations and weak consumer demand [15]. Group 4: Market Performance and Investment Recommendations - Tech stocks are more likely to outperform the market due to stronger growth momentum from AI commercialization and globalization strategies [16]. - Valuation recovery potential for the Hang Seng Tech Index, currently at a P/E of about 24x, significantly lower than international peers [16]. - Traditional stocks are suitable for defensive positioning, offering low valuations and high dividend yields, appealing to risk-averse investors [17].

在创业邦2025（第十九届）DEMO CHINA大会现场，复星锐正董事总经理高俊巍、名川资本合伙人傅磊、策源资本数字经济投 资负责人傅成宇、高榕创投合伙人胡朔、创世伙伴创投合伙人聂冬辰、BAI资本合伙人汪天凡、金沙江创投合伙人周雨桐，围绕 的AI商业化展开了深度对话。 以下是各位嘉宾的对话实录，由创业邦整理。 AI 商业化是必答题 而非选择题 当AI技术从"概念热炒"走向"落地攻坚"，商业化成为检验赛道价值与项目成色的关键标尺。百模大战、AI Agent崛起、AI应用元 年……近几年，市场对AI的期待逐渐从"技术奇观"转向"价值创造"。能否赚钱、多久能赚钱、能赚多大规模的钱，成为创投圈聚 焦的核心问题。 高俊巍 ： 2022年我们见证了AI技术的爆发，2023年经历 "百模大战" 后的收敛，2025年被不少人视为AI应用元年。想问各 位，AI商业化的元年是否同步到来？现在是否是商业化落地的最佳时机？观察项目时，"明确的商业化效果" 是否已成为必备条 件？ 周雨桐 ： 从数据看，今年AI领域的token消耗量、B端与C端应用收入均呈陡峭增长，增速超移动互联网早期，商业化价值非常 清晰。对我们而言，商业化潜力是观 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the positive outlook for the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in sectors like AI and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are experiencing valuation premiums due to their growth potential [2][3][5] - The Hong Kong stock market has shown signs of recovery since 2024, driven by low valuations, a stable interest rate environment from the Federal Reserve, and strong inflows from southbound capital [3][4] - The AI sector is revitalizing the technology segment in the Hong Kong market, with significant investments from major internet companies in AI infrastructure and applications [4][11] Group 2 - The innovative pharmaceutical sector has seen a remarkable increase, with the index for innovative drugs rising over 110% this year, supported by demographic trends, policy reforms, and payment system improvements [18][19] - The demand for innovative drugs is bolstered by an aging population, with projections indicating that by 2024, approximately 15.6% of China's population will be over 65 years old, leading to increased healthcare spending [18][19] - The trend of Chinese pharmaceutical companies going global is enhancing their valuation and stock price stability, with significant upfront payments from international partnerships [20][22] Group 3 - The AI sector is expected to reshape investment logic, with opportunities arising from hardware, software, and application layers, particularly in industries like gaming, finance, and healthcare [11][12] - The performance of the Hang Seng Technology Index, which has risen over 30% this year, is closely tied to the advancements in AI technology and its commercial applications [12][17] - The innovative drug sector's growth is also supported by favorable policies aimed at expediting clinical trials and approvals, enhancing the market's attractiveness for investors [19][24] Group 4 - The influx of southbound capital into the Hong Kong market is expected to continue, driven by the relative valuation advantages of Hong Kong-listed technology and biopharmaceutical companies compared to their A-share counterparts [6][8] - The unique characteristics of the Hong Kong market, including the presence of many high-quality internet and innovative pharmaceutical companies, provide diverse investment opportunities for mainland investors [6][8] - The ongoing development of AI technologies is seen as a new engine for corporate performance, moving beyond the narrative of merely being a costly investment [13][14]

Core Insights - DeepSeek leverages open-source technology to significantly lower the entry barriers in the industrial AI quality inspection market, allowing smaller companies to access advanced AI capabilities at a fraction of the cost [2][3] - The company aims to build a robust ecosystem by attracting developers and partners through free technology, which will later facilitate monetization through various services and collaborations [3][10] Group 1: Business Model - The first step in DeepSeek's monetization strategy involves using free technology to attract partners and build an ecosystem, similar to a shopping mall offering free rent to attract merchants [3][10] - The second step focuses on providing customized enterprise-level services to larger companies, ensuring high reliability and compliance, which allows DeepSeek to charge for these premium services [4][10] - The third step involves collaborating with hardware and cloud service providers, enabling DeepSeek to earn revenue through partnerships without extensive sales efforts [5][6] Group 2: Industry Impact - DeepSeek's open-source approach is changing the competitive landscape of the AI industry, forcing established players to lower their prices and adapt to a more open model [9][10] - The collaboration with domestic chip manufacturers like Huawei enhances the performance of local AI chips, reducing reliance on foreign supply chains and increasing the adoption of domestic solutions [8][10] Group 3: Strategic Insights - The strategy of offering free technology is designed to create a viral adoption effect, leading to a large user base that can later be monetized through high-end services and ecosystem partnerships [11][10] - Building a strong ecosystem is deemed more critical than the technology itself, as a larger user base leads to more tools and resources, solidifying DeepSeek's market position [12][10] - DeepSeek recognizes the potential risks associated with open-source technology and implements strict content review mechanisms and compliance frameworks to mitigate these risks [13][10]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a decline with all major indices falling, led by a significant retreat in the technology sector, while banking and semiconductor equipment sectors showed resilience [1][2] - The A-share market saw a trading volume of 1.71 trillion yuan, while the Hong Kong market recorded 165.23 billion HKD, indicating increased risk-averse sentiment among investors [1][2] Sector Performance - Defensive sectors such as banking and semiconductor equipment outperformed, with banking stocks rebounding due to policy support and high dividend yields attracting risk-averse capital [2][3] - The technology and consumer sectors faced substantial declines, particularly in tourism and real estate, with many stocks experiencing significant drops [2][3] Investment Strategy - The current market adjustment presents an opportunity to focus on quality assets, emphasizing sectors with policy certainty and sustainable performance [3][5] - Recommended strategies include strategic allocation in semiconductor equipment and AI infrastructure, as well as high-dividend blue-chip stocks to provide stable cash flow during economic fluctuations [3][4][5] Long-term Outlook - The long-term investment focus should be on industrial upgrades, green transformation, and consumption upgrades, with a preference for companies with strong cash flow and management buyback intentions [4][5]

Core Insights - SenseTime's stock (0020.HK) rose over 6% during trading, reaching HKD 2.79, marking a new high since April 2023, with a year-to-date increase of over 80% [1] - Goldman Sachs significantly raised its target price for SenseTime from HKD 2.72 to HKD 3.09, maintaining a buy rating [1] Business Expansion - Goldman Sachs has increased its expectations for SenseTime's ToC (Technology of Communication) business expansion, which includes productivity tools like "Office Little Raccoon" and financial tools like "Kapi Accounting" [1] - The company is expected to offer free trials to new users, transitioning to a revenue model based on annual or monthly fees for AI commercialization [1] Technological Advancements - SenseTime's AI infrastructure, SenseCore, has recently been adapted to other local computing platforms, including Huawei's Ascend Super Cluster (Atlas 900 A3 SuperPod) [1] - The integration and optimization of SenseCore have significantly reduced latency and improved utilization, supporting the operation of large-scale AI models [1] - The company has a comprehensive product line, including its self-developed large model SenseNova, and SenseCore can match various AI models such as LLaMA3, Qwen, and DeepSeek [1]

近日，国际投行相继上调多只中国股票目标价，阿里巴巴、腾讯、百度、比亚迪等企业均获看好。 与此同时，国际资本也在积极加仓中国科技板块，其认为，在AI、机器人、生物科技等前沿领域，中国已具备全球竞争力，股市估值修复窗口正在打 开。 18日，高盛发布最新观点，称维持对A股和H股的超配评级，并预测未来12个月两个市场的潜在上行空间分别为8%和3%。 高盛：维持中国股市超配评级 当前市场属于盘整而非反转 9月18日，高盛研究部首席中国股票策略分析师刘劲津及团队发表最新观点称，维持对A股和H股的超配评级，预测未来12个月两个市场的潜在上行空间分 别为8%和3%；建议投资者逢低吸纳，看好"中国民营企业十杰"、AI、反内卷及股东回报等主题。 高盛表示，本轮由估值及流动性驱动的股市上涨在全球资本市场均有所体现。长期看上涨需要盈利支持，但"流动性"是所有上涨趋势的必要条件。当前， A股形成向上趋势的条件较此前更好。本轮中国市场的上涨中，基本面支撑也是贡献因素之一。中国主要指数的盈利在今年及明年仍将维持中高个位数增 长趋势。 作为衡量境内风险偏好的综合指标，高盛构建的A股散户情绪指标显示，当前市场更多属于盘整而非反转。估值方面，多 ...

Industry Commentary - The automotive industry is expected to benefit from new materials opportunities as eight departments issued a "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Automotive Industry" [1] Company Commentary - Kingdee International (00268.HK) is experiencing resilient growth driven by its cloud subscription business, with accelerated commercialization of AI [1] - Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ) reported that the increase in 1.6T volume will further enhance profitability, maintaining its position as a global leader in optical module delivery [1] Industry Commentary - The photovoltaic industry chain is witnessing price increases upstream, indicating potential market shifts [1]

Summary of Baidu Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Baidu - **Date of Call**: September 12, 2025 Key Points Valuation Framework - The valuation framework consists of three parts: 1. Current stock price is seen as a support level for value investors 2. Five aspects that the market has not priced in, which could positively impact the stock price 3. A combination of value support and growth drivers that can act as catalysts for timing [2][3] Financial Position - Baidu currently holds **$30 billion** in cash, contrary to previous market perceptions of only **$10 billion** [2] - The company generates approximately **$10 million** in cash flow daily from its core business, which is significant in the Chinese market [2] AI and Robotaxi Services - Baidu is the largest robotaxi service provider globally, with operational order volumes comparable to competitors like Waymo [3] - The AI commercialization efforts are progressing well, with AI agents and digital humans enhancing operational monetization [3] - Baidu has the largest AI-empowered software portfolio in China, significantly larger than its closest competitors [3] Cloud and SaaS Business - Baidu's AI cloud capabilities rank among the top in terms of external revenue generation [4] - The company is positioned to be the largest AI-enabled SaaS provider in China, with high growth potential and margins [5] - Baidu's cloud services are expected to grow faster than the average market rate, driven by strong technical capabilities [15] Market Strategy and Shareholder Returns - Baidu is exploring a primary listing in Hong Kong, which could attract significant fund flow, potentially exceeding **20-30%** compared to Alibaba [6][7] - The company has repurchased **$2.6 billion** worth of shares over the past three years and plans to enhance shareholder returns, including potential dividends [7] Competitive Landscape - Baidu's competitive advantage in the robotaxi space is attributed to its comprehensive capabilities in cloud resources, data processing, and software development [9][10] - The company has successfully completed regulatory approvals to operate robotaxi services in Hong Kong [9] AI Commercialization and Business Model - AI commercialization is expected to drive a second growth curve, with current AI-related revenue increasing from **1%** to **13%** in a short period [11] - The company is transitioning to a "pay for results" model, which aligns revenue generation with performance [11] Future Outlook - Baidu aims to change market perceptions of its stock from a bond-like investment to an equity investment, focusing on attracting growth-oriented capital [17] - The company plans to provide new disclosures in November regarding its valuation metrics and growth strategies [17] Additional Insights - Baidu's cloud services are designed to be efficient and cost-effective, with a focus on maximizing resource utilization [15] - The company is committed to maintaining a strong cash position while investing in technology and innovation [16] This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic directions discussed during the Baidu conference call, highlighting the company's financial health, competitive advantages, and future growth potential.