Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX, PTA, MEG, short - fiber, bottle - chip, LPG, propylene, fuel - oil, low - sulfur fuel - oil: Bullish trend [2][73][74] - Synthetic rubber: Bullish but with marginal valuation pressure [2] - LLDPE, PP, glass, soda: Bearish trend [2] - Caustic soda, urea, benzene - ethylene, container shipping index (European line), PVC, offset printing paper, pure benzene: Neutral trend [2] Core Views - The prices of most energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as capital inflows, geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes. For some products, capital plays a significant role in driving up prices, while for others, geopolitical risks and supply - demand imbalances are the main influencing factors [10][11][13] Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Before the festival, the unilateral trend is bullish. 3 - 5 reverse spreads and 5 - 9 positive spreads are recommended. The current price increase is mainly driven by capital rather than fundamentals. The domestic and Asian device operating rates have slightly decreased, and it is in a state of inventory accumulation [10] - **PTA**: Before the festival, the unilateral trend is bullish. A 5 - 9 positive spread is recommended. High processing fees may lead to the resumption of production of PTA devices. It is also in a state of inventory accumulation [11] - **MEG**: The trend remains bullish, and a 5 - 9 positive spread is recommended. The device operating rate has slightly decreased, and the supply will marginally decline in the future. Although it is in an inventory - accumulation pattern, the overall trend is still bullish due to short - covering and capital inflows [12][13] Synthetic Rubber - It runs bullishly, but attention should be paid to marginal valuation pressure. The short - term strength is due to capital inflows and cost - push from butadiene. However, some valuation indicators are approaching their boundaries [14][16] LLDPE - The risk preference continues to spread, and the basis weakens significantly. Although the raw - material oil price is strong, the ethylene monomer link weakens. The supply pressure in the medium - term remains due to high production capacity and weakening demand [17][18] PP - The production scheduling remains at a low level, and the profit repair is limited. The cost end is strong, but the demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices under deep losses [20][21] Caustic Soda - It fluctuates at a low level. Before the Spring Festival, there is pressure to reduce inventory, and the price continues to decline. The long - term contract may face cost increases and large - scale production cuts [23][25] Glass - The original - sheet price is stable. The market demand is coming to an end, the rigid demand shrinks rapidly, and the inventory is under pressure. Some winter - storage and inventory - transfer policies may be introduced next month [28][29] Methanol - It fluctuates with support. The short - term is expected to be strong due to geopolitical conflicts and inventory improvement expectations. However, the over - speculation may be restricted by MTO plant maintenance and inventory de - stocking [32][35] Urea - The oscillation center moves up. Driven by the warm sentiment in the chemical sector, neutral fundamentals, and strong spring - plowing expectations, the price center slowly rises. The upper and lower bounds of the valuation are also gradually moving up [37][39] Benzene - Ethylene - It oscillates bullishly. The short - term market sentiment is high, but downstream profits are squeezed, and the inventory is in a high - production and high - inventory pattern. The price is expected to be in an oscillatory pattern [40][41] Soda - The spot market has little change. The domestic soda market is weakly stable, with flexible price transactions. The supply is adjusted at a high level, and the downstream demand is average [43][45] LPG, Propylene - **LPG**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances are strong. The price is affected by geopolitics and supply - demand relationships [48] - **Propylene**: The trend is bullish, but the upward momentum slows down [2] PVC - It oscillates within a range. The short - term is supported by the bullish sentiment of chemical products, but the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change. The short - term futures contract faces high - operation and weak - demand situations [56][57] Fuel - Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel - Oil - **Fuel - oil**: It rises strongly, and the volatility continues to increase [59] - **Low - sulfur fuel - oil**: It continues the upward trend, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has fallen to a low point again [59] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is in an oscillatory market. The 04 short positions should be gradually reduced and observed, and the 10 short positions can be held as appropriate [61] Short - Fiber, Bottle - Chip - **Short - fiber**: The short - term trend is bullish. The futures price has risen significantly, and the spot price has been adjusted upwards [73][74] - **Bottle - chip**: The short - term trend is bullish. The upstream raw - material futures continue to rise strongly, and the factory has continuously raised the quotation [73][74] Offset Printing Paper - It is advisable to wait and see. The market price is stable, the supply is abundant, and the demand is weak [76][77][79] Pure Benzene - It oscillates bullishly. The inventory has decreased, and the spot price has risen [80][81]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although geopolitical premiums have dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy, but wait for OPEC's export decline when prices fall for validation. Currently, it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Regarding methanol, the current valuation is low, and its outlook for the coming year is marginally improving with limited downside. Despite short - term negative pressures, due to recent geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [4]. - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price differences has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are approaching. So, it is advisable to short on rallies [6]. - In the case of rubber, with a good overall upward atmosphere in commodities but weak seasonality, adopt a neutral approach, trade short - term according to the market, and enter and exit quickly. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, consider a short - selling strategy. Partially build a position for buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13]. - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is supply - strong and demand - weak, with poor fundamentals. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, pre - export rush, and strong commodity sentiment support it, but in the medium term, before significant production cuts in the industry, the strategy is to short on rallies [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is currently at a relatively high neutral level, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. As the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly restored, it is advisable to gradually take profits [20]. - Regarding polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and crude oil prices may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene is rising, but the PE valuation still has downward space. In the seasonal off - peak season, the demand - side overall operating rate is oscillating downward [23]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand with high overall inventory pressure, in the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction. In the long - term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - led downward trends to production - mismatch issues. It is advisable to buy on dips for the PP5 - 9 spread [26]. - For PX, currently maintaining a high load with many downstream PTA maintenance activities, it is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. After the Spring Festival, the supply - demand structure with downstream PTA is strong, and there are medium - term opportunities to follow crude oil and buy on dips [29]. - Regarding PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. In the short - term, beware of the risk of processing fee corrections, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Pay attention to medium - term opportunities to buy on dips [32]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still relatively high, and the port inventory - accumulation cycle will continue. In the medium - term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction, and the valuation needs to be compressed without further domestic production cuts [34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 4.40 yuan/barrel, a 0.99% decline, at 441.90 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil closed up 54.00 yuan/ton, a 2.09% increase, at 2643.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 9.00 yuan/ton, a 0.29% decline, at 3116.00 yuan/ton. US EIA weekly data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.60 million barrels to 426.05 million barrels, a 0.85% increase; SPR replenished 0.81 million barrels to 414.48 million barrels, a 0.19% increase; gasoline inventories increased by 5.98 million barrels to 256.99 million barrels, a 2.38% increase; diesel inventories increased by 3.35 million barrels to 132.59 million barrels, a 2.59% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.59 million barrels to 24.13 million barrels, a 2.37% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.79 million barrels to 42.35 million barrels, a 1.83% decrease [1][2][7]. - **Strategy View**: Although geopolitical premiums have dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy, but currently, wait for OPEC's export decline when prices fall for validation. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Methanol - **Market Information**: No specific market price information provided. - **Strategy View**: The current valuation is low, and its outlook for the coming year is marginally improving with limited downside. Despite short - term negative pressures, due to recent geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, Jiangsu, Shanxi, and Northeast China remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 48 yuan/ton. The main futures contract increased by 12 yuan/ton, reporting 1788 yuan/ton [5]. - **Strategy View**: The current situation of internal - external price differences has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are approaching. So, it is advisable to short on rallies [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Commodities and chemicals as a whole rose, and rubber prices rebounded oscillating. Butadiene drove up rubber and butadiene rubber prices. The reasons for the sharp rise in butadiene rubber may be large - scale allocation of chemical long positions by macro funds, expected increase in naphtha and butadiene costs due to naphtha consumption tax policies leading to subsequent production cut expectations, and increased marginal exports of butadiene due to spot demand in South Korea, with the butadiene inventory in East China ports dropping significantly from 44,600 tons to 34,500 tons. The long - side of natural rubber RU believes that rubber production in Southeast Asia may be limited, rubber prices usually rise in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve; the short - side believes that macro expectations are uncertain, supply is increasing, and demand is in the seasonal off - peak season. As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.84%, up 2.30 percentage points from last week and 2.78 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 74.35%, up 6.35 percentage points from last week but down 4.09 percentage points from the same period last year. As of January 11, 2026, China's total social inventory of natural rubber was 1.256 million tons, a 1.9% increase from the previous period. Among them, the inventory of dark - colored rubber increased by 2.5% to 835,000 tons, and the inventory of light - colored rubber increased by 0.8% to 421,000 tons. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 563,900 (+19,600) tons. In the spot market, Thai standard mixed rubber was at 15,200 (+300) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1,930 (+40) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1,930 (+40) US dollars, butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 10,600 (+800) yuan, and cis - polybutadiene in North China was 12,100 (+600) yuan [10][11][12]. - **Strategy View**: With a good overall upward atmosphere in commodities but weak seasonality, adopt a neutral approach, trade short - term according to the market, and enter and exit quickly. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, consider a short - selling strategy. Partially build a position for buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 72 yuan, reporting 4921 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4650 (+80) yuan/ton, the basis was - 271 (+8) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 111 (+3) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide price in Wuhai was reported at 2500 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 820 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 710 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 622 (0) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.7%, a 0.9% decline from the previous period; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80%, unchanged from the previous period, and the ethylene method was 75.7%, a 3.1% decline from the previous period. The overall downstream operating rate was 44.9%, a 1% increase from the previous period. The in - plant inventory was 308,000 tons (- 3,000), and the social inventory was 1.178 million tons (+33,000) [15]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply - demand situation is supply - strong and demand - weak, with poor fundamentals. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, pre - export rush, and strong commodity sentiment support it, but in the medium term, before significant production cuts in the industry, the strategy is to short on rallies [17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: In terms of fundamentals, the cost - side price of pure benzene in East China was 5930 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 6056 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 126 yuan/ton, a reduction of 41 yuan/ton. In the spot - futures market, the spot price of styrene was 7700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7708 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton; the basis was - 8 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 86 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 185 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.5 yuan/ton; the non - integrated EB device profit was 117.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.85 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a reduction of 19 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the upstream operating rate was 69.63%, a 1.23% decline; the inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.71 million tons to 93,500 tons. On the demand side, the weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.40%, a 0.49% increase; the PS operating rate was 57.30%, a 0.10% decline, the EPS operating rate was 58.71%, a 4.65% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 66.80%, a 3.00% decline [19]. - **Strategy View**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is currently at a relatively high neutral level, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. As the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly restored, it is advisable to gradually take profits [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6865 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6775 yuan/ton, an increase of 135 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 90 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 84 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, a 1.23% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 45,100 tons to 350,300 tons, and the inventory of traders remained unchanged at 29,200 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 41.1%, a 0.11% decline. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 22 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan increase from the previous period [22]. - **Strategy View**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and crude oil prices may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene is rising, but the PE valuation still has downward space. In the seasonal off - peak season, the demand - side overall operating rate is oscillating downward [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6656 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6575 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 81 yuan/ton, a weakening of 17 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, a 0.01% decline. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 36,700 tons to 431,000 tons, the inventory of traders decreased by 10,800 tons to 193,900 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 500 tons to 70,600 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 52.58%, a 0.02% decline. The LL - PP spread was 209 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan increase from the previous period. The PP5 - 9 spread was - 32 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan reduction from the previous period [24][25]. - **Strategy View**: In the context of weak supply and demand with high overall inventory pressure, in the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction. In the long - term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - led downward trends to production - mismatch issues. It is advisable to buy on dips for the PP5 - 9 spread [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 118 yuan, reporting 7508 yuan, the PX CFR increased by 16 US dollars, reporting 923 US dollars. After conversion according to the central parity rate of the RMB, the basis was - 69 yuan (+1), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 118 yuan (- 40). The PX operating rate in China was 88.9%, a 0.5% decline from the previous period; the Asian operating rate was 81%, a 0.4% increase from the previous period. Domestically, Zhejiang Petrochemical further reduced its load, and overseas, the South Korean GS device restarted. The PTA operating rate was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period. In terms of imports, South Korea's PX exports to China in the first and middle ten - days of January were 215,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,000 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of November was 4.46 million tons, a 60,000 - ton increase from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, the PXN was 340 US dollars (+10), the South Korean PX - MX was 146 US dollars (0), and the naphtha crack spread was 100 US dollars (+15) [28]. - **Strategy View**: Currently maintaining a high load with many downstream PTA maintenance activities, it is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. After the Spring Festival, the supply - demand structure with downstream PTA is strong, and there are medium - term opportunities to follow crude oil and buy on dips [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 150 yuan, reporting 5448 yuan, the East China spot price increased by 130 yuan, reporting 5285 yuan, the basis was - 78 yuan (- 7), and the 5 - 9 spread was 40 yuan (+6). The PTA operating rate was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period. The downstream operating rate was 86.4%, a 1.9% decline from the previous period. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 4% to 66%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 6% to 49%. In terms of inventory, on January 16, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.045 million tons, a 40

Market Overview - Recent crude oil prices have shown a strong fluctuation, with Brent crude futures settling at $65.88 per barrel, up $1.75 (+2.73%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures rose to $61.07 per barrel, an increase of $1.63 (+2.74%) [6][49][53] - The market remains tense due to geopolitical factors, including potential changes in Iran and ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, alongside the U.S. military presence in the Middle East [5][48][55] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The latest EIA data indicates a weekly crude oil inventory increase of 3.602 million barrels, with gasoline inventories rising by 5.977 million barrels, both exceeding expectations [6][49][73] - Despite a slight reduction in production, overall demand appears weak, suggesting a continued trend of inventory accumulation [6][49][73] Geopolitical Influences - The U.S. has increased military presence in the Middle East, raising concerns about potential military actions against Iran, which could impact oil prices significantly [5][55] - The upcoming "U.S.-Ukraine" trilateral talks are expected to influence geopolitical tensions and, consequently, crude oil prices in the near future [5][48] Market Sentiment - The recent Davos Forum highlighted significant geopolitical narratives, with discussions around U.S. inflation, energy policies, and international relations affecting market perceptions [9][52] - The divergence in market sentiment regarding U.S. actions towards Iran reflects uncertainty, with mixed signals from U.S. officials regarding military engagement [5][55] Refinery Operations - U.S. refinery utilization has decreased by 2.0% to 93.30%, remaining above historical averages, indicating stable operational conditions despite minor fluctuations [76] - The overall demand for refined products has shown mixed trends, with gasoline demand slightly declining due to seasonal adjustments and extreme weather conditions [76][78]

Group 1 - Finnish Prime Minister Orpo's visit to China marks the first visit by a Finnish leader since 2017, indicating a shift in the development path of China-EU relations and changes in the internal power structure of Europe [1] - The visit aims to enhance dialogue with Chinese leadership and promote Finnish business opportunities in China, with discussions on bilateral relations, EU-China relations, and international issues like the Ukraine crisis [2] - Finland is a significant trading partner for China, with bilateral trade expected to exceed $8 billion by 2025 and mutual investment stock surpassing $23 billion [3] Group 2 - The visit includes over 20 Finnish business executives from sectors such as machinery, forest industry, innovation, clean energy, and food, highlighting Finland's competitive advantages [2] - The geopolitical context, particularly the pressures from the US, is influencing Finland's strategy to strengthen ties with China, focusing on low-risk areas like green technology and climate-related projects [2][3] - Finland's historical relationship with China, being one of the first Western countries to recognize China and sign a government trade agreement, continues to deepen with ongoing practical cooperation [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - Germany is facing increasing pressure to repatriate a significant portion of its gold reserves from the United States due to concerns over the unpredictability of the Trump administration and changing transatlantic relations [1] Group 1: Gold Reserves Overview - Germany holds the second-largest national gold reserves globally, with approximately 1,236 metric tons valued at around $194 billion stored at the New York Federal Reserve Bank [1] - The total value of Germany's gold reserves is about $530 billion, with just over half stored at the Deutsche Bundesbank in Frankfurt, 37% in New York, and 12% in the Bank of England in London [1] Group 2: Calls for Repatriation - Emmanuel Mense, a prominent economist and former head of research at the Deutsche Bundesbank, advocates for repatriating gold to enhance Germany's strategic independence amid current geopolitical tensions [1] - Michael Yeager, president of the European Taxpayers Association, urges Berlin to act, citing Trump's unpredictable nature as a reason for the insecurity of gold stored at the Federal Reserve [1] Group 3: Political Discourse - The debate over gold repatriation has transcended its previous association with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party and has entered mainstream political discourse [1] - Katrin Becker, a spokesperson for the Green Party on finance, emphasizes that gold reserves are a crucial anchor of stability and trust, which should not be used as leverage in geopolitical disputes [1] Group 4: Expert Opinions - Not all experts agree on the repatriation of gold; Clemens Fuest, director of the Ifo Institute, warns that bringing back gold may only exacerbate the current situation [2] - The Merz coalition government has previously stated that it does not currently consider withdrawing gold reserves [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, indicating a "Buy" recommendation for key sectors within this industry [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong performance in the metals sector, with the non-ferrous metals index outperforming the broader market indices, indicating robust investor interest and potential for growth [4][5]. - Geopolitical tensions are driving safe-haven demand for precious metals, leading to significant price increases, particularly in gold and silver [2][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-demand dynamics in driving prices for various metals, with specific recommendations for companies positioned to benefit from these trends [4][10]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.84%, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 1.11%. The non-ferrous metals index surged by 6.03%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 6.65 percentage points [5][10]. - Precious metals saw substantial weekly gains, with gold prices increasing by 8.30% and silver by 14.80% [4][10]. - Year-to-date performance shows precious metals up by 35.81%, aluminum by 13.01%, and energy metals by 14.34% [10]. Price Changes - Industrial metals prices showed varied changes, with copper increasing by 2.44% and aluminum by 1.12%. Notably, tin prices surged by 18.41% [4][16]. - Lithium prices also saw significant increases, with battery-grade lithium carbonate rising by 8.28% [4][20]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Copper supply is tightening, with domestic social inventory at 330,000 tons, reflecting a slight increase. The report anticipates strong copper prices due to ongoing demand from infrastructure investments [4][36]. - Aluminum production is stable, with a reported operating rate of 98.3% for electrolytic aluminum, indicating healthy demand from downstream processing industries [4][52]. Key Company Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Zijin Mining, Yunnan Aluminum, and Shandong Gold, which are well-positioned to capitalize on the favorable market conditions [4][21]. - For lithium, companies such as Ganfeng Lithium and Yongxing Materials are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the growing demand in energy storage [4][21]. Growth Cycle Investment Analysis - The report indicates that post-interest rate cuts, valuation levels are expected to rise, recommending investments in stable supply-demand sectors within the new energy manufacturing industry [4].

Geopolitical Tensions - Greenland issue sees a diplomatic shift as Trump states no military action will be taken, focusing instead on a framework for an agreement[3] - Brent crude oil prices rose by 1.9% amid geopolitical tensions and oversupply expectations[9] - The U.S. and Europe have returned to diplomatic negotiations, with potential updates to the 1951 U.S.-Denmark defense agreement regarding Greenland[12] U.S.-China Relations - Continued high-level exchanges between U.S. and China leaders aim to stabilize the temporarily eased relations, with expectations for further trade talks before potential summits[17] - The outcome of the U.S. midterm elections in November may influence Trump's approach to trade relations, with a focus on technology and resource competition[17] Russia-Ukraine Situation - Ongoing discussions among the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine focus on territorial disputes, with further talks anticipated next week[3] Future Outlook - Upcoming elections in Japan and Thailand on February 8 are expected to impact regional dynamics[3] - The U.S. Supreme Court's pending decision on the legality of Trump's tariffs could provide more leeway for his administration, particularly regarding strategic industries[21] Market Performance - Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.8% this week, while the Shenzhen Component rose by 1.1%[5] - Brent crude oil prices have increased by 7.4% this month, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions and resource competition[5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, London gold rose 7.27% and London silver rose 9.03%. The gold-silver ratio fell from 50.6 to 50.3, the 10-year TIPS rose to 1.92%, the 10-year nominal interest rate fell to 4.24% (2-year 3.6%), and the US dollar index was 97.5 [3]. - Geopolitical tensions have further escalated. The "Abraham Lincoln" aircraft carrier and its strike group are advancing towards the Persian Gulf, indicating that the US's tough stance towards Iran has entered the stage of substantial military preparation. The relationship between the US and Europe is facing a rift. It is recommended to increase the allocation of gold and pay attention to the new heights brought by the strengthening of its monetary attributes. The target price of gold is raised to $5,500 per ounce [3]. - For silver, the CME inventory has been continuously decreasing, flowing to the London market and then to Hong Kong and the Chinese mainland. The domestic futures and spot inventories continue to decline, and there is a large spot premium in Hong Kong. The target price of silver is raised to $120 per ounce, but attention should be paid to the profit-taking pressure at the integer level [3]. Summary by Directory Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) - **Overseas Spot-Futures Price Spread** - This week, the spread between London spot gold and COMEX gold主力 rebounded to -$1.79 per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was -$47.1 per ounce [9]. - The spread between London spot silver and COMEX silver主力 rebounded to $0.08 per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was -$0.335 per ounce [15]. - **Domestic Spot-Futures Price Spread** - This week, the gold spot-futures price spread was -5.29 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [21]. - The silver spot-futures price spread was 23 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [23]. - **Inter-Month Spread** - This week, the gold inter-month spread was 8.76 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [27]. - The silver inter-month spread was 18 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [31]. - **Cross-Month Arbitrage Delivery Cost** - The total cost of the long TD and short Shanghai gold cross-month arbitrage was 26.93 yuan per gram [33]. - The total cost of the long Shanghai gold December contract and short June contract cross-month arbitrage was 7.99 yuan per gram [34]. - The total cost of the long TD and short Shanghai silver cross-month arbitrage was 620.04 yuan per kilogram [35]. - The total cost of the long Shanghai silver December contract and short June contract cross-month arbitrage was -187.07 yuan per kilogram [36]. - **Delivery Direction of Deferred Fees in the Shanghai Gold Exchange** - This week, the gold deferred fee was mainly paid from longs to shorts, indicating strong delivery power, while the silver deferred fee was mainly paid from shorts to longs, indicating strong receiving power [37]. - **Inventory and Position-to-Inventory Ratio** - This week, the COMEX gold inventory increased by 0.35 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rebounded to 52.1% [39]. - The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 527 tons to 12,952 tons, and the registered warrant ratio fell to 27.4% [41]. - The domestic gold futures inventory increased by 1.96 tons, and the silver futures inventory decreased by 45.75 tons to 581 tons [45]. - **CFTC Non-Commercial Positions** - This week, the non-commercial net long position of COMEX gold in CFTC decreased slightly, and the non-commercial net long position of silver also decreased slightly [47]. - **ETF Positions** - This week, the inventory of the gold SPDR ETF increased by 0.86 tons, and the domestic gold ETF increased by 11.2 tons [50]. - The inventory of the silver SLV ETF increased by 16.92 tons [54]. - **Gold-Silver Ratio** - This week, the gold-silver ratio fell from 50.6 to 50.3 [56]. - **COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold-Silver Lease Rates** - This week, the 3M gold lease rate was -0.31%, and the 3M silver lease rate was 5.26% [58]. Core Drivers of Gold - **Gold and Real Interest Rates** - This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10Y TIPS continued to decline [63]. - **Inflation and Retail Sales Performance** - Not summarized in detail due to lack of specific analysis content. - **Non-Farm Payroll Performance** - Not summarized in detail due to lack of specific analysis content. - **Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions** - Not summarized in detail due to lack of specific analysis content. - **Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index** - Not summarized in detail due to lack of specific analysis content. - **Probability of Fed Rate Cuts** - Not summarized in detail due to lack of specific analysis content.

Core Viewpoint - The visit of NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang to Shanghai's local market symbolizes the company's effort to stabilize its presence in the Chinese market amidst geopolitical challenges and market pressures [2][3]. Group 1: Policy Constraints - Huang's visit was characterized by a "silent" approach, avoiding media interactions and sensitive topics, reflecting NVIDIA's need to navigate U.S. export controls while maintaining a commitment to the Chinese market [3]. - The choice of a casual market visit over formal business announcements indicates NVIDIA's strategy to convey its dedication to Chinese employees and partners despite political tensions [3]. Group 2: Market Challenges - NVIDIA faces the challenge of convincing Chinese clients to accept "customized" products with reduced performance due to U.S. sanctions, transforming the company from a market leader to a salesperson needing to persuade clients [4]. - The competition from local AI chip companies, accelerated by U.S. sanctions, raises questions about whether Chinese cloud computing and AI firms will invest in NVIDIA's less-than-optimal solutions [4]. Group 3: Competitive Logic - NVIDIA's long-term success is threatened as Chinese companies begin to explore alternatives to its CUDA software ecosystem, which has been a key competitive advantage [5]. - Huang's visit aims to strengthen emotional connections with the Chinese market, emphasizing the importance of balancing global strategies with local engagement in a politically charged environment [5].