Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the bond market is expected to break through and start a downward trend, with a higher probability of yield decline. If the market restarts the expectation of interest rate cuts, the long - term interest rate is expected to challenge the low level before the bond market adjustment in July. The 10 - year treasury bond yield may fall to 1.70%, and the 30 - year treasury bond yield may drop to the range of 2.00 - 2.05%. [7][61] - The fundamental data in October may be weak. With the prior implementation of fiscal and quasi - fiscal policies in the fourth quarter, interest rate cuts may become a more flexible incremental stimulus tool, and the bond market may restart the trading of the expectation of "looser monetary policy". [2][30] - The potential negative factors in the bond market in November, such as government bond supply and bond fund redemption fee regulations, may have a lower - than - expected impact due to regulatory and market precautions. [3][34] - Institutional behavior in November may affect the market through two main lines. The short - and long - end assets may be repriced, and the profit - taking power of the allocation disk may slow down the decline of interest rates but is less likely to reverse the upward trend. [6][45] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. October Bond Market: Calm After the Storm - In October, the long - term interest rate continued the trading logic of September and achieved a "step - down" due to the decline in risk appetite caused by the US tariff pressure. The 10 - year treasury bonds generally showed a "head - and - shoulders top" pattern, indicating that the interest rate may have basically completed the topping process. [1] - The bond market pricing in October was mainly based on three main lines: when the central bank would buy bonds, the evolution of Sino - US relations, and the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees. The market could be divided into three stages. [13] - In terms of various bond market varieties in October, interest - rate bonds recovered, and credit bonds were stronger than interest - rate bonds. The yields of most bonds declined. [17][18] 2. Macro - Narrative Vacuum Period: Rising Expectations of Interest Rate Cuts - In November, before the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference in December, the market will enter a macro - narrative vacuum period. Whether the macro - economic data in October can boost the expectation of interest rate cuts will be the key to bond market pricing. [22] - The manufacturing PMI in October was lower than expected, with significant drag from production and new order sub - items, indicating a possible economic slowdown. [22] - The end - of - month bill interest rates approaching zero in October suggest that credit demand may have returned to a low point. [23][24] - High - frequency price data indicates that the year - on - year decline of PPI in October may widen again. [29] 3. Government Bond Supply and Bond Fund Redemption Fee Regulations: Apparent Negative Factors - The potential negative factors in the bond market in November are the significant increase in government bond net supply compared to October and the uncertainty of the official implementation of the new regulations on public bond fund redemption fees. However, the actual impact may be lower than expected due to regulatory and market precautions. [3][34] - The slow issuance of local government bonds in October is likely to be accelerated in November and December. It is estimated that the net supply of government bonds in November and December will be 1.23 trillion and 0.81 trillion yuan respectively. The large - scale supply in November may prompt the central bank to strengthen liquidity support, and the capital market may remain stable. [3][35] - If the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees are strictly implemented as in the solicitation draft, the bond market may experience a short - term shock at the time of implementation, especially credit - type bond funds may be more affected. [5][40] 4. Institutional Behavior: Returning to a Neutral Variable - In November, institutional behavior may affect the market through two main lines. The short - and long - end assets may be repriced. After the central bank announced the resumption of treasury bond trading operations, the market's willingness to price short - term varieties increased, and the long - term interest rate may decline as the negative factors in the bond market are exhausted and institutional investors pursue year - end performance. [6][45] - The profit - taking power of the allocation disk may slow down the decline of interest rates but is less likely to reverse the upward trend. Banks' self - operated institutions may prefer to take profits during the bond market's upward period. [51] 5. Bond Market Breakthrough: Starting a Downward Trend - Currently, the bond market has two characteristics: low duration and limited short - selling power. The risk of trading long - term bonds is relatively controllable. [55][58] - It is predicted that the bond market yield in November is more likely to decline. The bond market strategy in November can consider increasing duration on rallies, and priority can be given to ultra - long treasury bonds or policy - financial bonds with sufficient spread protection. Tax - inclusive bonds may perform better. [7][61]

Group 1: Market Overview - Global financial markets continue to experience volatility driven by multiple macro factors, including a strengthening dollar, pressure on gold prices, and uncertainties surrounding trade and central bank policies [1] - The dollar index approached 99.70, reflecting increased market confidence in the U.S. economy, supported by hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve and high Treasury yields [1][3] - The euro declined over 0.4% due to weak European economic conditions and expectations of monetary easing, while the Japanese yen fell to a yearly low against the dollar, raising concerns about potential policy intervention [1] Group 2: Gold Market - Gold prices struggled to maintain support above $4000, facing pressure from a strong dollar and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, with limited upward movement observed [2] - Despite a brief rebound due to safe-haven buying, overall momentum for gold remains weak as the attractiveness of non-yielding assets diminishes with cooling rate cut expectations [2] Group 3: Federal Reserve Signals - The Federal Reserve's policy stance remains a focal point, with recent speeches from officials indicating a general hawkish tone despite some divergence in views on future interest rate paths [3] - The probability of a rate cut in December has decreased from 90% to below 70%, with expectations that the Fed will maintain a tightening policy to curb inflation [3] Group 4: U.S.-China Trade Relations - U.S.-China trade relations are a key market focus, with recent negotiations showing some positive signals, but significant differences remain in critical areas, leading to a decline in market optimism [4] - Investor concerns about the uncertainty in trade progress may pose risks to economic recovery, affecting risk appetite in the market [4] Group 5: European and Japanese Policy Stances - The European Central Bank maintained interest rates at its October meeting, emphasizing no premature policy commitments, which has led to increased uncertainty regarding future monetary policy direction [5] - Japan's new government reiterated the importance of stable exchange rates, with officials closely monitoring market dynamics amid concerns over yen depreciation [5] Group 6: Global Stock Market Performance - Global stock indices generally rose, with U.S. major indices continuing their upward trend, particularly driven by strong performance in the technology sector, exemplified by Nvidia reaching a new historical high [6] - Despite the strong dollar and hawkish Fed stance potentially limiting some gains, overall risk appetite appears to be improving, with investors focusing on upcoming U.S. economic data for insights into future growth trends [6]

Group 1: U.S. Military Actions and Venezuela - U.S. President Trump has not yet decided whether to attack ground targets in Venezuela, despite reports suggesting imminent military action [2] - The Pentagon has increased military deployments in the Caribbean to the largest scale in 30 years, with a target list prepared for potential strikes [2] - Venezuela has been accused by its government of U.S. intentions to instigate regime change through military threats [2] Group 2: Oil Market Reaction - The oil market reacted quickly to the news, with WTI crude oil prices nearing $61.40 per barrel, reflecting a daily increase of over 1.3% [2] - Brent crude oil for January rose above $65.10 per barrel, with a daily increase of 1.2%, although gains later narrowed [2] Group 3: Gold Price Forecast - Morgan Stanley predicts gold prices could rise to $4,500 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by strong demand from ETFs and central banks amid economic uncertainty [3] - Gold has increased over 53% this year, reaching a recent high of $4,381.21 per ounce on October 20, before retreating by over 8% [3] - The report highlights potential downward risks for gold prices, including investor shifts to other asset classes and central banks reducing gold reserves [3] Group 4: Shipping Index Trends - The European shipping index futures experienced a decline of 2.54% after reaching a peak of 1,950 points, influenced by airlines lowering spot rates to attract cargo [4] - The index had been rising since mid-October, supported by improved macro sentiment and expectations of rising spot rates [4][5] - Analysts note that the current trading logic for the shipping index revolves around strong expectations versus weak realities, with supply and demand dynamics creating volatility [6] Group 5: Future Outlook for Shipping - Short-term macroeconomic benefits, capacity adjustments, and multiple price increase expectations are likely to support the shipping index [7] - The market anticipates a potential rise in rates in late November, but the actual improvement in cargo volumes will be crucial for sustaining price increases [7] - Analysts recommend monitoring shipping schedules and airline loading rates to manage risks associated with potential price adjustments [7]

Core Viewpoint - Barclays Bank warns that traders are currently underestimating the likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of England in the upcoming meeting, contrary to the market's expectation of maintaining borrowing costs unchanged [1] Group 1: Rate Cut Expectations - Barclays' economists predict a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the rate down to 3.75%, with a close 5-4 voting outcome from the Monetary Policy Committee [1] - The current market pricing reflects only a 25% probability of a rate cut, which is inconsistent with the potential reality of a closely contested decision [1] - Goldman Sachs and Nomura also forecast a rate cut in the near future [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Following lower-than-expected inflation data in September, swap contract traders have increased their bets on a rate cut [1] - Concerns regarding rising food prices, a key issue for policymakers, are showing signs of easing [1] - The Bank of England's Governor Andrew Bailey has expressed worries about the UK economy operating below its potential and a weak labor market [1] Group 3: Market Reactions - Expectations of a rate cut have boosted UK government bonds, which are on track for their best monthly performance in nearly two years [5] - The British pound has fallen to its weakest level against the euro in 2023 and may record its longest monthly losing streak in nine years [5] - Despite the current inflation rate being nearly double the central bank's target, most strategists expect the Bank of England to delay action until at least December, pending further employment and inflation data [5] - Barclays' strategist believes there are compelling reasons for policymakers to proceed with a rate cut, suggesting that the current market pricing offers an attractive risk-reward scenario for such bets [5]

| 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 11.8-12.6 | 15.17% | 3.2% | source： 南华研究,wind 南华镍&不锈钢产业风险管理日报 2025/10/31 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍区间预测 不锈钢区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1.25-1.31 | 8.66% | 5.8% | source： 南华研究,wind,同花顺 沪镍风险管理策略 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 策略等级（满分 5） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产品销售价格下 跌，库存有减值 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利润，对冲现 货下跌风险 | NI主力合约 | 卖出 | 60% | 2 | | | ...

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is trading weakly around 0.6550 against the US dollar (USD), with a current exchange rate of 0.6541, reflecting a decline of 0.15% [1] - The market has downgraded expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, leading to a stronger USD, which has pressured the AUD [1] - China's official manufacturing PMI data for October showed weak performance, negatively impacting market sentiment and contributing to the pressure on the AUD [1] Group 2 - The Australian inflation report dampens hopes for a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) this year, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut to 3.35% on November 4 nearly zero [1] - Economists surveyed expect the RBA to maintain the current rate of 3.60%, with the benchmark rate projected to bottom out at 3.35% by mid-next year [1] - Westpac's chief economist suggests that there is still room for two more 25 basis point cuts next year, with the first potentially in May and the second in August [1] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD is currently in a neutral trend, trading within a rectangular consolidation pattern [2] - Initial resistance is at the psychological level of 0.6600, followed by the upper boundary of the rectangle around 0.6630; a breakout could lead to a bullish trend towards the yearly high of 0.6707 [2] - Key support is at the 9-day EMA level of 0.6544; a drop below this support could weaken short- and medium-term price momentum, potentially leading to a decline towards the lower boundary of the rectangle around 0.6450 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Recent significant correction in gold prices, with a cumulative decline of over 10% from the high of $4,381 per ounce, mainly due to technical selling pressure caused by over - heated bullish sentiment in overseas markets after nine consecutive weeks of price increases [3] - The fundamental logic supporting the upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged, and the current decline has sufficiently released short - term risks, so the price correction is a "comma" in the long - term upward trend [3] - The ebb of risk - aversion sentiment is an important factor driving the decline in gold prices, and investors' high - level profit - taking is a reasonable and necessary operation [3] - Even if gold prices stop falling at the current level, they may not immediately resume a rapid upward trend. Attention should be paid to the change in volatility, and a stable and declining volatility may indicate the approaching of the next upward cycle [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Interest Rates - A 25 - basis - point interest rate cut this week is almost certain. The expected interest rate cuts by the end of 2025 have been revised down to 48.4bps, 3bps less than the previous week, mainly due to the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment [7] - The September CPI reading showed no upward inflation risk. The core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month, lower than the expected 0.3%, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3% [7] - Last week, the yields of U.S. Treasury bonds at different maturities diverged, with the 30 - year UST yield falling by 0.77bps to 4.6%, the 10 - year UST yield falling by 0.23bps to 4.01%, and the 2 - year UST yield rising by 2.27bps to 3.49%, causing the yield curve to flatten [11] Fed's Operations - The Fed is considering ending the balance - sheet reduction within a few months. Last week, the ONRRP usage volume increased by $6.05 billion to $10.06 billion, corresponding to the rise in TGA balance. The Fed's reserve balance increased by $58 billion to $2.93 trillion [14] Bond Positions - As of September 23, the positions of short - and long - term U.S. Treasury bond interest rates were differentiated. The non - commercial net short positions of 2 - year UST futures decreased by 103,272 contracts to 1,300,198 contracts, while those of 10 - year UST futures increased by 24,817 contracts to 844,116 contracts [18] - As of the week of October 20, the sentiment of JPM's net long - position investors in Treasury bonds was 9, down from the previous week [19] Real Interest Rates - The yields of 5 - year and 10 - year TIPS decreased. The 5 - year TIPS yield fell by 6bps to 1.24%, and the 10 - year TIPS yield fell by 1bp to 1.73% [27] Dollar Index - Last week, the dollar index and the gold price moved in opposite directions. The gold price fell by 3.29%, while the dollar index rose by 0.39% to 98.9, and their rolling correlation increased [35] - The U.S. dollar appreciated by 1.4% against the Japanese yen, remained flat against the euro, and appreciated by 0.5% against the British pound [35] - As of September 23, the total positions of the dollar index increased. The non - commercial long positions increased by 1,541 contracts to 14,000 contracts, and the non - commercial short positions decreased by 1,009 contracts to 24,400 contracts. Short - selling forces were dominant [41] Offshore Dollar Liquidity - Last week, the 3 - month Basis Swap for the Japanese yen and the euro decreased month - on - month, and the financing cost of offshore dollar liquidity increased [44] Inflation Indicators - Last week, the copper - to - gold ratio rose to 2.66, with copper prices rising and gold prices falling, indicating a marginal recovery in global total demand momentum [51] Price Ratios and Volatility - The gold - to - silver ratio fluctuated upwards as the decline of gold prices was smaller than that of silver prices last week; the gold - to - copper ratio decreased as gold prices fell and copper prices rose; the gold - to - oil ratio decreased as oil prices rose and gold prices fell [60] - The correlation between gold and crude oil, copper, and the dollar index decreased from a rolling correlation perspective [68] - Despite the significant decline in the absolute price of gold, the domestic - foreign premium has recently increased, indicating domestic investors' buying behavior [75] Inventory and Positions - Last week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 344,400 ounces to 38.688 million ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 13.9103 million ounces to 492.557 million ounces; the SHFE gold inventory increased by 0.45 tons to about 87 tons, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 91.9 tons to 657.4 tons [80] - The SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 19.7 tons to 1,038.9 tons, and the SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 428.9 tons to 15,340.8 tons [86] - The total COMEX gold positions increased by 12,568 contracts to 529,000 contracts, with non - commercial long positions increasing by 6,030 contracts to 333,000 contracts and non - commercial short positions increasing by 5,691 contracts to 66,000 contracts, showing an increase in the long - buying power for gold allocation [93] - The total COMEX silver positions increased by 2,851 contracts to 165,000 contracts, with non - commercial long positions increasing by 695 contracts to 72,000 contracts and non - commercial short positions decreasing by 43 contracts to 20,000 contracts, showing an increase in the long - buying power for silver allocation [98]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00% and announced the end of balance sheet reduction starting December 1, which aligns with market expectations, but Powell's remarks were hawkish [1] - Powell acknowledged significant divergence within the committee regarding the policy path, dampening market expectations for a December rate cut [1][4] Inflation - Powell indicated that the impact of inflation is expected to be relatively short-lived, with core inflation excluding tariff effects close to the 2% target [2] Labor Market - The labor market shows higher downside risks than previously thought, with many large companies laying off workers due to AI developments, although initial unemployment claims data has not yet reflected this [2] Economic Growth - Pre-government shutdown data suggests that economic activity may be more robust than expected, driven by strong consumer spending and continued investment in equipment and intangible assets [2][4] Monetary Policy - There are strong disagreements within the committee regarding the approach to December's meeting, and further rate cuts are not guaranteed [3] - The Fed plans to stop balance sheet reduction when reserves exceed a certain level, with a focus on maintaining adequate reserves [3] AI Sector - Current AI companies are performing well, unlike the dot-com bubble era, and the Fed's policies have minimal impact on data center investments [4] - Market expectations for a December rate cut dropped from 98% to 68% following the meeting, with future rate cut expectations also being compressed [4] Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to benefit from liquidity expectations and the recent decline in interest rates, although caution is advised due to potential inflation risks in Q4 [5] Stock Market Outlook - Positive liquidity expectations and a temporary easing of US-China tensions may support stock market sentiment, with strong performance anticipated in the AI sector [6] - Powell's comments on the AI boom suggest that high-valuation companies have earnings support, which may help restore market confidence despite hawkish signals [6]

【行情回顾】 周四贵金属价格明显反弹，仍受益于中美领导会晤后的避险买盘以及美财长贝森特表示可能在圣诞节前选出 美联储主席候选人，且不喜欢本次降息的措辞的消息影响。周边美指上涨，10Y美债收益率略有走高，美股调 整，因美联储偏鹰降息影响，其他比特币下跌，原油震荡，南华有色金属指数调整。最终COMEX黄金2512 合约收报4038.3美元/盎司，+0.94%；美白银2512合约收报于48.73美元/盎司， +1.71%。SHFE黄金2512 主力合约 收912.16元/克，+0.82%；SHFE白银2512合约收11253元/千克，+0.54%。其他消息面，欧央行 三连维稳利率2%，称通胀已达标，暂不转向；经济显韧性，但地缘与关税阴云未散，市场押注明年上半年降 息，欧元跌、德债收益率续降。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 降息预期降温略有回暖。据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储12月11日维持利率不变概率25.3%，降息 25个基点的概率为74.7%；美联储1月29日维持利率不变概率16.6%，累计降息25个基点的概率为57.7%，累 计降息50个基点的概率25.6%；美联储3月19日维持利率不变概率11.1%，累计 ...

Core Insights - The price of spot gold has increased by 50% this year, reaching a historical high of $4,381 per ounce on October 20, driven by geopolitical tensions, uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies, and a "fear of missing out" (FOMO) buying spree [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The outlook for gold remains optimistic due to a weakening dollar, rising expectations for interest rate cuts, and threats of stagflation, which may further boost investment demand [2] - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark short-term interest rate to a range of 3.75%-4%, the lowest level since 2020, following a second consecutive 25 basis point cut [2] - The market reacted sharply to Fed Chair Powell's comments, which cast doubt on the likelihood of further rate cuts this year, leading to a rise in the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield by 0.092 percentage points [2] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - Global demand for gold bars and coins increased by 17% year-on-year in Q3, primarily driven by markets in India and China [3] - The inflow of funds into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking physical gold surged by 134% [3] - However, global jewelry manufacturing demand for gold fell by 23% year-on-year to 419.2 metric tons, as high gold prices dampened consumer purchasing willingness [3] - Central banks' gold purchases in Q3 rose by 10% year-on-year, totaling 219.9 metric tons [3] Group 3: Current Market Analysis - Recent trading saw gold prices dip to a low of $3,915, with the market showing signs of temporary calm [4] - The short-term outlook suggests a bearish trend unless gold prices recover above the $4,000 mark [4] - Key support levels are identified at $3,915, with potential further declines testing the $3,885-$3,890 range if broken [4]