回落，价格短期筑底，操作上建议，玻璃建议逢低布局多单。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 煤炭，石油为原材料制作的玻璃，整体利润小幅增加，主要原因来自于原材料成本下跌，产量整体保持平 数据来源于第三方，仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 稳。需求端，场内缺乏利好消息刺激，需求延续弱势下，原片企业为避免后市高库存压力，或存小部分企 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 业灵活操作，适当让利目前期货价格已经毕竟生产成本价格，成本支撑可能会短期见效。玻璃成交量小幅 免责声明 纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-05-15 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 1330 294 | -15 玻璃主 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the daily market tracking data of commodity indices, including the performance of macro - indicators,主力合约 of various commodities, and provides morning meeting viewpoints on major varieties, as well as macro - economic news [2][4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - **Macro - indicators**: On May 15, 2025, compared with the previous day, the Dow Jones Industrial Index decreased by 0.212% to 42051.06, the Nasdaq Index increased by 0.719% to 19146.81, the S&P 500 increased by 0.102% to 5892.58, the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.304% to 23640.65, SHIBOR overnight decreased by 0.071% to 1.41, the US dollar index decreased by 0.120% to 100.96, and the US dollar against the Chinese yuan (CFETS) remained unchanged at 7.21 [2]. - **主力合约**: COMEX gold decreased by 2.268% to 3180.70, COMEX silver decreased by 2.115% to 32.39, LME copper decreased by 0.078% to 9592.00, LME aluminum increased by 1.305% to 2522.50, LME zinc increased by 2.089% to 2761.50, LME lead increased by 0.176% to 1992.50, LME tin increased by 0.516% to 32890.00, LME nickel increased by 0.413% to 15800.00, ICE11 -号 sugar decreased by 0.550% to 18.08, ICE2 -号 cotton decreased by 1.295% to 65.55, CBOT soybeans increased by 0.093% to 1076.00, CBOT soybean meal decreased by 0.545% to 292.00, CBOT soybean oil increased by 1.065% to 52.20, CBOT corn increased by 0.508% to 444.75, NYMEX crude oil decreased by 1.163% to 62.89, and ICE Brent crude oil decreased by 1.126% to 65.85 [2]. - **Domestic commodities**: For metals, gold decreased by 1.712% to 748.68, silver decreased by 1.342% to 8085.00, copper decreased by 0.367% to 78650.00, zinc increased by 0.396% to 22800.00, aluminum increased by 0.074% to 20255.00, tin decreased by 0.109% to 265480.00, lead increased by 0.531% to 17025.00, nickel increased by 0.248% to 125540.00, iron ore increased by 0.068% to 737.50, alumina increased by 1.154% to 2979.00, rebar decreased by 0.256% to 3119.00, stainless steel decreased by 0.115% to 13065.00, and hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.337% to 3256.00 [2]. - **Domestic chemical products**: Coke decreased by 0.270% to 1478.00, natural rubber decreased by 0.328% to 15185.00, 20 -号 rubber decreased by 0.384% to 12985.00, plastic increased by 0.177% to 7352.00, polypropylene PP decreased by 0.097% to 7186.00, (PTA) decreased by 0.082% to 4870.00, asphalt decreased by 0.142% to 3516.00, methanol decreased by 0.507% to 2353.00, ethylene glycol decreased by 0.289% to 4493.00, styrene increased by 1.214% to 7840.00, glass decreased by 0.860% to 1037.00, crude oil decreased by 0.411% to 484.60, fuel oil decreased by 0.033% to 3056.00, soda ash decreased by 0.595% to 1337.00, pulp remained unchanged at 5378.00, caustic soda decreased by 0.237% to 2524.00, PX decreased by 0.058% to 6876.00, and LPG decreased by 0.735% to 4324.00 [4]. - **Domestic agricultural products**: Yellow soybean 1 increased by 0.216% to 4183.00, yellow soybean 2 decreased by 0.560% to 3552.00, soybean meal decreased by 0.549% to 2898.00, rapeseed meal decreased by 0.399% to 2499.00, soybean oil decreased by 0.202% to 7898.00, rapeseed oil decreased by 0.064% to 9432.00, palm oil decreased by 0.098% to 8176.00, white sugar decreased by 0.305% to 5888.00, yellow corn decreased by 0.382% to 2347.00, corn starch decreased by 0.259% to 2695.00, No.1 cotton increased by 0.074% to 13455.00, and cotton yarn decreased by 0.152% to 19745.00 [4]. 3.2 Macro - Economic News - China's counter - measures against the US fentanyl - related tariffs remain in effect. The US imposed two rounds of tariffs on China under the pretext of fentanyl, and China took counter - measures in a timely manner [7]. - To implement the consensus of the China - US economic and trade high - level talks, China has suspended the inclusion of 28 US entities in the export control list and 17 US entities in the unreliable entity list for 90 days starting from May 14. The US has adjusted its tariffs on Chinese goods, revoking 91% of the tariffs and implementing 34% of reciprocal tariffs, with 24% of the tariffs suspended for 90 days and 10% retained. It has also adjusted the tax on small - value parcels [7]. - In April, China's social financing scale stock increased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the M2 balance increased by 8% year - on - year, accelerating from the previous month. In the first four months, RMB loans increased by 10.06 trillion yuan, and the social financing scale increased by 16.34 trillion yuan. In April, the average interest rate of new corporate loans was about 3.2%, about 4 basis points lower than the previous month [8]. - China's first comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut in 2025 has taken effect. Starting from May 15, the reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions has been lowered by 0.5 percentage points (excluding those already implementing a 5% reserve requirement ratio), and the reserve requirement ratio of auto finance companies and financial leasing companies has been lowered by 5 percentage points, expected to inject about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity into the market [8]. - Seven departments, including the central bank and the financial regulatory authority, have jointly issued a document proposing 15 policy measures to promote the development of science and technology finance in seven aspects, providing full - life - cycle and full - chain financial services for scientific and technological innovation [8]. - The director of the National Development and Reform Commission has held a symposium for private enterprises, stating that existing policies will be promoted to take effect earlier, and incremental policies will be studied and reserved according to the situation [9]. - On Wednesday, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.2083 at 16:30, down 71 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.2090 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was raised by 35 basis points to 7.1956, the highest since April 3 [9]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The spot market is relatively stable, with oil mills' demand providing some support. There are few topics for speculation. It is recommended to short on rebounds [11]. - **Oils and fats**: About 15% of the US soybean - growing areas are affected by drought, unchanged from the previous week. Argentina has raised its forecast for the 2024/25 soybean harvest. The external oil market lacks strong support. It is recommended to short on rebounds [11]. - **Sugar**: On May 14, the sugar futures contract closed at 5906 yuan/ton, up 0.65%. The supply in Brazil has decreased significantly, while domestic demand is strong. However, the opening of the import profit window may bring pressure. It is recommended to exit short positions and wait and see, with resistance at 5950 yuan/ton and support at 5850 yuan/ton [11]. - **Corn**: On May 14, the corn futures contract closed at 2356 yuan/ton, up 0.34%. The supply in the northern ports is decreasing, but wheat substitution suppresses demand. It is recommended to maintain a short - term bearish view, with support at 2340 yuan/ton [11]. - **Pigs**: The national pig price is stable with a slight decline. The supply exceeds demand, and the consumption is weak. The futures contract is oscillating at the bottom of the range. It is recommended to operate intraday [11]. - **Eggs**: The national egg spot price is stable. Food factories' demand for the Dragon Boat Festival is increasing, but the trade volume is decreasing. The egg price has limited room for further increase, and the medium - term capacity pressure remains [11]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic soda**: The supply in Shandong is narrowing, but non - aluminum industries' demand is cautious. The 2509 contract has rebounded [13]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea price is stable, with high daily production. The inventory has decreased significantly. The demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is decreasing seasonally, while agricultural demand is increasing. The market may continue to oscillate at a high level [13]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and aluminum**: The prices of copper and aluminum have been boosted by the progress of China - US negotiations. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous gap positions [13]. - **Alumina**: Some alumina plants have maintenance and production - reduction plans, and new production capacity is ramping up. The cost has decreased, and the 2509 contract has rebounded. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 3000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Rebar and hot - rolled coil**: The spot market has improved, and the inventory has decreased. The steel prices are expected to continue to rebound, with resistance at 3150 - 3200 yuan/ton for rebar and 3200 yuan/ton for hot - rolled coil [14]. - **Silicon iron and silicon manganese**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are stable. The steel mills' pressure on prices is obvious. The two products may rebound slightly, with resistance at 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton for silicon iron and 6000 yuan/ton for silicon manganese [14]. - **Coking coal and coke**: The coking coal market is weak, and the coke price is under pressure. The two products are stable in the short term but remain relatively weak [14]. - **Lithium carbonate**: On May 14, the futures contract closed at 65200 yuan/ton, up 3%. The supply has decreased, but the cost support is weakening. It is recommended to wait and see the effectiveness of the breakthrough, with resistance at 68000 yuan/ton and support at 63500 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - **Options**: On May 14, the three major A - share indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index above 3400 points. The trading volume was 1.35 trillion yuan. The futures indices of CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 all rose with increased positions and volume. The PCR of option trading volume decreased, while the PCR of option positions increased, and the implied volatility increased. Trend investors should focus on defense, and volatility investors can buy wide - straddles after the volatility decreases [17].

以下文章来源于解码LP ，作者杨文静 活水。 翘首以待。 作者 I 杨文静 报道 I 投资界-解码LP 投资界-解码LP获悉，5月14日七部门联合印发《加快构建科技金融体制 有力支撑高水平 科技自立自强的若干政策举措》（简称"《政策举措》"），其中重点提及—— 设立 " 国 家创业投资引导基金 " ，将促进科技型企业成长作为重要方向，培育发展战略性新兴产业 特别是未来产业。 至此，这个备受关注的"航母级"引导基金即将诞生。 解码LP . 投资界（PEdaily.cn）旗下，专注募资动态 欢迎加入投资界读者群 5 ）引导 理财公司、信托公司 等依法依规参与创业投资。 这被视为今年最大创投活水。此前国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁在全国两会经济主题记者 会上透露，国家正在推动设立国家创业投资引导基金——聚焦人工智能、量子科技、氢 能储能等前沿领域，吸引带动地方、社会资本近1万亿元，基金存续期达到20年。 1万亿元 设立"航母级"引导基金 具体来看，《政策举措》由科技部、中国人民银行、金融监管总局、中国证监会、国家 发展改革委、财政部、国务院国资委七部门联合印发，从创业投资、银行信贷、资本市 场、科技保险、债券发行等八大方 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the introduction of a new policy initiative aimed at accelerating the construction of a technology finance system to support high-level technological self-reliance and innovation in China [1][2][3] - The policy initiative includes 15 measures across 7 areas, focusing on venture capital, bank credit, capital markets, technology insurance, fiscal policies, central-local collaboration, and creating an open innovation ecosystem for technology finance [1][2] - A notable measure is the establishment of a "National Venture Capital Guidance Fund" to promote the growth of technology-based enterprises and support the development of strategic emerging industries [1][2] Group 2 - The initiative emphasizes the importance of bank credit in supporting technological innovation, encouraging financial institutions to increase support for major national technology tasks and technology-based SMEs [2][3] - It proposes a special mechanism for bank credit support for technology innovation, including the establishment of identification standards for technology-based enterprises and a recommendation mechanism to facilitate effective support from financial institutions [2] - The policy also highlights the role of capital markets in supporting technology innovation, advocating for a counter-cyclical adjustment mechanism for new stock issuances and prioritizing financing for technology-based enterprises that achieve core technological breakthroughs [2][3] Group 3 - The initiative outlines the role of technology insurance as a stabilizing factor in supporting innovation, proposing the development of a comprehensive insurance product and service system covering the entire lifecycle of technology-based enterprises [2][3] - It encourages the participation of insurance funds in implementing major national technology tasks and explores risk-sharing pilot projects in key technology areas [2][3] - The policy aims to leverage fiscal policies to mobilize more financial resources for technology innovation, utilizing existing loan interest subsidies, insurance subsidies, and risk compensation policies [3] Group 4 - The initiative promotes central-local collaboration in advancing national technology finance efforts, including the establishment of innovation point systems and the implementation of special guarantee plans linked to technology innovation [3] - It supports foreign investment in domestic technology-based enterprises and the lawful overseas listing of technology-based companies [3] - A coordinated mechanism among the People's Bank of China, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and other regulatory bodies will be established to enhance policy coordination and information sharing in technology finance [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis using tools like the golden ratio line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the trend of today's (May 15, 2025) futures main contracts. Index futures are expected to oscillate strongly, while gold, silver, crude oil, glass, soda ash, and PTA futures are likely to oscillate weakly. Alumina, PVC, styrene futures, and container shipping index (European line) futures are predicted to oscillate strongly [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Outlook - **Index Futures**: IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, and IM2506 are expected to oscillate strongly. Resistance and support levels are provided for each contract [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2506 and thirty - year TL2506 main contracts are likely to oscillate widely [2]. - **Commodity Futures**: Gold, silver, copper, rebar, hot - rolled coils, coking coal, glass, soda ash, and crude oil futures are expected to oscillate weakly. Aluminum, alumina, zinc, iron ore, PVC, styrene, and container shipping index (European line) futures are likely to oscillate strongly [2][3][4][6]. 2. Macro News and Trading Tips - **Tariff Measures**: China's counter - measures against US fentanyl tariffs remain effective. The US has adjusted tariffs on Chinese goods, canceling 91% of the tariffs and implementing 34% reciprocal tariffs, with 24% suspended for 90 days and 10% retained. The US has also adjusted the ad - valorem tax rate for small Chinese parcels and canceled a planned increase in the specific tax [7]. - **Monetary Policy**: China's central bank has cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points for most financial institutions and 5 percentage points for auto finance companies and financial leasing companies, injecting about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity into the market [8]. - **Other Policies**: Seven departments have jointly issued policies to promote science and technology finance. The National Development and Reform Commission has held a symposium for private enterprises, and the State Council has issued a legislative work plan [9]. 3. Commodity Futures - Related Information - **Precious Metals**: On May 14, international precious metal futures generally closed lower. COMEX gold futures fell 2.07% to $3180.70 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 2.15% to $32.39 per ounce [11]. - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices weakened on May 14. US crude oil futures fell 1.23% to $62.89 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures fell 1.23% to $65.81 per barrel [11]. - **Other Commodities**: Domestic commodity futures had mixed results on May 14. Energy and chemical products generally rose, while base metals mostly closed higher. The on - shore RMB against the US dollar weakened slightly, and the US dollar index rose slightly [12][13]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Index Futures**: On May 14, index futures showed strong performance. A - shares also rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index regaining 3400 points. The market has rumors about account verification and fund positions, and insurance funds are expected to increase their allocation of CSI A500 index components [13][14][15][16]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On May 14, treasury bond futures closed lower across the board. The ten - year and thirty - year main contracts are expected to oscillate widely on May 15 [37][42]. - **Commodity Futures**: Each commodity futures contract's performance on May 14 is analyzed, and the trend for May 15 is predicted, including resistance and support levels [43][49][53] etc.

（文章来源：证券日报） 记者从国泰海通获悉，此次债券发行，体现了金融机构在服务实体经济过程中的积极作用。国泰海通等 金融机构将充分发挥专业优势，为企业融资搭建桥梁，赋能科技创新领域高质量发展，为国家重大战略 实施和强国建设贡献金融力量。 近年来，国泰海通锚定"金融强国"，全力做好"五篇大文章"，充分依托证券行业在服务各类科创企业中 的专业优势，整合私募股权投资、行业研究、投资银行、财富管理等业务，为不同发展阶段的科创企业 提供高质量、全链条、差异化的全生命周期服务体系，坚持以科技金融助力高水平科技自立自强，推 动"科技、产业、金融"高水平循环。 国泰海通表示，未来，公司将继续秉承"金融报国"理念，以"加快打造具备国际竞争力与市场影响力的 一流投资银行"为目标，强化"投行、投资、投研"联动，培育科技金融特色优势，为实体经济高质量发 展贡献更大力量。 本报讯 （记者金婉霞）5月7日，中国人民银行、中国证监会联合发布关于支持发行科技创新债券有关 事宜的公告。作为行业内长期、持续、全面领先的综合金融服务商，国泰海通证券股份有限公司（以下 简称"国泰海通"）积极参与科创债发行。 日前，国泰海通公告称，公司科技创新公司债 ...

要点如下↓↓↓ 设立"国家创业投资引导基金" 将促进科技型企业成长作为重要方向，培育发展战略性新兴产业特别是未来产业，推动重大科技成 果向现实生产力转化。 建立银行信贷支持科技创新的专项机制 近日，科技部、中国人民银行等7部门联合发布《加快构建科技金融体制 有力支撑高水平科技自立 自强的若干政策举措》，推出15项科技金融政策举措，为科技创新提供全生命周期、全链条的金融服 务。 丰富银行间债券市场科技创新债券产品，完善科技创新债券融资支持机制。 加大对科技型企业、创业投资机构和金融机构等发行科技创新债券的支持力度，为科技创新筹集长 周期、低利率、易使用的债券资金。 推广创新积分制 鼓励商业银行设立科技金融专门机构，在科技资源密集的地区设立科技支行。 选择在部分商业银行和试点城市开展科技企业并购贷款试点，将贷款占并购交易价款比例提高到 80%，贷款期限延长到10年。 进一步增强资本市场对科技创新企业的支持力度 优先支持取得关键核心技术突破的科技型企业上市融资。 持续支持优质未盈利科技型企业发行上市，优化科技型上市公司并购重组、股权激励等制度。 健全债券市场服务科技创新的支持机制 建立债券市场"科技板"。 将优质企 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the role of the capital market in empowering the real economy and driving high-quality regional development, particularly focusing on Guangdong's capital market advancements and its integration with technology and industry [1]. Group 1: Capital Market Strength - Guangdong has maintained its position as the leading province in China for GDP for 36 consecutive years, showcasing its robust economic foundation [16]. - The province leads nationally in key capital market indicators such as IPO financing, merger and acquisition transactions, and the number of listed companies [16]. - As of now, Guangdong has over 1,200 listed companies, making it the only province in China with such a large number [27]. Group 2: Emerging Industries and Innovation - Guangdong has seen a significant emergence of "first stocks" in strategic emerging industries, with 313 listed companies in these sectors, leading the nation [17]. - The province is witnessing a transformation with industries like low-altitude economy, humanoid robots, and autonomous driving becoming prominent, indicating a deep integration of capital markets with industrial evolution [17][22]. - From 2014 to 2024, 82.6% of the 529 new A-share listed companies in Guangdong are high-tech enterprises, highlighting the province's focus on innovation [29]. Group 3: Financial Support and Policy Initiatives - In 2024, Guangdong's A-share listed companies are expected to spend over 300 billion yuan on R&D, leading the nation in R&D expenditure as a percentage of revenue [32]. - The province completed 66 mergers and acquisitions in 2024, amounting to 549.3 billion yuan, the highest in the country [33][47]. - Guangdong is actively implementing policies to support the capital market, including establishing a multi-tiered support system for technology and innovation [48]. Group 4: Case Studies of Success - The rise of companies like BYD and Xpeng Motors illustrates how Guangdong's strong manufacturing base supports the development of new industries such as autonomous driving [37]. - The success of Transsion Holdings in the African smartphone market exemplifies Guangdong's robust consumer electronics manufacturing ecosystem [38]. - The emergence of companies like EHang Intelligent demonstrates Guangdong's commitment to developing the low-altitude economy and creating a complete industrial ecosystem around flying vehicles [24].

报告日期：2025 年 5 月 15 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：中美经贸关系竞合窗口期 2025 年 5 月 15 日，中方宣布自即日起暂停对 28 家美国实体的出口管制措施， 同时美方同步撤销对中国商品 91%的关税，保留的 34%关税中 24%暂停加征 90 天。 这场"关税休战"标志着双方在芬太尼关税争端持续两年后首次达成竞合妥协，但 商务部昨日"发现一起查处一起"的强硬表态，以及美方仍保留 10%战略关税的举 措，揭示出博弈远未结束。 国内政策组合拳精准发力，央行降准释放万亿流动性与科技金融 15 条新政形成 共振。0.5 个百分点的全面降准叠加汽车金融公司定向降准，既延续了适度宽松 基调，又精准支持实体产业升级。值得关注的是，4 月企业新发贷款利率降至 3.2% 的历史低位，配合《促进科技金融发展意见》提出的全生命周期金融服务体系， 政策着力点正从总量刺激转向结构优化。 海外市场方面，特朗普政府的"交易艺术"展现新动向。在斩获卡塔尔 2000 亿美 元大单的同时，美国众议院推进数万亿美元减税计划，这种"左手贸易右手财政 "的组合策略无不体现其交易的风格。 当前中美博弈已进入"边打边谈"的新阶 ...

Group 1 - Ganzhou Bank is committed to promoting inclusive finance and supporting small and micro enterprises in Jiangxi province, aligning with national policies to enhance financial services for the real economy [1][12] - The bank has launched a dedicated financial product called "Home Decoration Merchant Loan" to support merchants participating in the 2025 Ganzhou Home Decoration and Kitchen Renovation Activity, offering competitive interest rates starting from 3.5% [4][5] - As of now, 5,357 merchants have participated in the renovation activity, facilitating home decoration consumption amounting to 6.92 billion yuan, with total credit exceeding 50 million yuan provided by Ganzhou Bank [5] Group 2 - Ganzhou Bank is focusing on technology finance to support small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) with strong innovation capabilities but lacking collateral, by optimizing supply chain financial products [6][9] - The bank has successfully provided loans to over 1,100 technology SMEs, with total credit surpassing 6 billion yuan, covering various sectors such as smart manufacturing and biomedicine [9] - A successful case involved a collaboration with a technology SME, where the bank provided a total of 3 million yuan in credit to address the company's funding gap [8] Group 3 - Ganzhou Bank is exploring green finance by collaborating with local forestry and insurance companies to create innovative financing solutions, such as forestry insurance loans, to support ecological resource management [10] - The bank has initiated a "thousand enterprises and ten thousand households" outreach program to connect with small and micro enterprises, resulting in over 130 billion yuan in credit approvals and 108 billion yuan in disbursements [12] - The bank aims to deepen cooperation among government, banks, and enterprises, and to explore new paths for "green inclusive" and "digital inclusive" finance development [12]