Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, precious metal prices are generally prone to rise and difficult to fall, and the precious metal sector will continue to operate strongly. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish stance, and short - hedgers should appropriately reduce their positions. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US economic, employment, and inflation situation on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. This week, focus on China's November economic data, the US November non - farm payrolls, and the central bank meetings of the EU, UK, and Japan [4]. - In the medium - term (2026), the continued strong operation of the global political and economic system restructuring and the abundant monetary liquidity environment will support the precious metal prices. The report predicts that the price of London gold will reach $4800 - 5000 per ounce, London silver will reach $73.5 - 77.5 per ounce, London platinum will reach $2000 - 2100 per ounce, and London palladium will reach $1620 - 1700 per ounce. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish stance, short - hedgers should appropriately reduce the hedge ratio, and conservative investors can focus on the arbitrage opportunity of going long on silver and platinum and short on gold [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metal Market Quotes and Outlook - **Intraday Quotes**: Weak US employment market and retail sales data have boosted the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. Factors such as the shadow Fed factor, the tense situation in Venezuela, and the peak season for jewelry consumption have provided positive support for the precious metal sector. The abolition of the EU's 2035 fuel - vehicle ban has boosted the industrial demand expectations for platinum and palladium. The data shows that the intraday increase of the Shanghai Gold Index was 0.85%, the Shanghai Silver Index was 5.73%, the Guangzhou Platinum Index was 8.55%, and the Guangzhou Palladium Index was 7.36% [4][5]. - **Medium - term Quotes**: The continued strong operation of the global political and economic system restructuring and the abundant monetary liquidity environment will support the precious metal prices in 2026. However, the Trump 2.0 new - deal optimization and the decline in the intensity of Sino - US competition will suppress the upward momentum of gold prices. Silver, with stronger industrial attributes and higher volatility, will have greater upward momentum. The consumption and investment demand for platinum as a substitute for gold and silver will continue to increase. Palladium will basically follow the trend of gold, but the electrification transformation of the global automotive market is not favorable to its fundamentals [5]. 3.2 Main Macro Events/Data - **US Economic Data**: In November, the number of non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 64,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest level in more than four years. In October, non - farm payrolls decreased by 105,000, the largest decline since December 2020. Federal government employment decreased by 162,000, the largest since June 2010. In October, retail sales were flat, after a 0.1% increase in September. In December, the preliminary value of the US Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 53.0, the lowest since June, with both manufacturing and services PMIs declining [17]. - **Fed - Related Information**: White House economic advisor Hassett said that the Fed's independence is very important, and the US economy still has a lot of room to cut interest rates, which is the direction Trump has been pushing since he took office again. Trump will interview Fed Governor Waller for the position of Fed Chairman on Wednesday [17]. - **Venezuela Situation**: On the 16th, US President Trump ordered a full - scale blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela. The US is strengthening its military presence in the Caribbean Sea near Venezuela, deploying F - 35A fighter jets and EA - 18G "Growler" electronic warfare aircraft to Puerto Rico [17].

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20251218 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：国际银价再创新高，国内股债双涨 贵金属：铂钯期货均涨停，有望延续强势 海外方面，美联储理事沃勒称，当前仍存在 50–100 个基点的降息空间，但无须急于行 动，在就业温和走弱、通胀受控且预期稳定的背景下，美联储将以稳步、渐进方式把政策利 率引向中性，在稳增长与控通胀之间保持平衡。AI 数据中心融资受阻影响海外风偏，美股 齐跌，美元指数最高反弹至 98.6，美债利率小幅下行，金银铜均上涨，白银创下 66 美元历 史新高，油价涨逾 1%，特朗普限制受制裁油轮进出委内瑞拉，地缘风险升温推高油价。今 日关注美国 11 月 CPI 及欧央行议息会议。 周三贵金属价格继续走强，日盘期间国内白银、铂、钯期货均创出新高，且铂、钯期货 均直击涨停。近日铂钯期货表现异常强劲，并带动金银价格走强之势。铂钯价格走强受到宏 观、基本面和资金面的共同提振。美联储降息预期为稀贵金属提供宏观支撑。最新美联储理 事沃勒表示，随着就业市场趋弱且通胀受控，美联储仍有 50 至 100 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On December 17, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 0.42 to 979.72 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 6.05% to 15,512 yuan/kilogram. Precious metal prices are expected to remain high and strong in the short - term, but the market will face events such as the US PPI and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision this week. In the medium - to - long - term, the Fed is in an easing cycle, geopolitical uncertainties are high, and the demand for precious metal allocation from global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue. Gold prices are likely to move upward in the long run. The strategy suggests short - term unilateral observation or buying call options, and long - term investors should mainly configure by buying on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Category Market Quotes - On December 17, 2025, London gold spot was at 4327.72 dollars/ounce, up 1.0% from the previous day; London silver spot was at 66.07 dollars/ounce, up 4.8%. COMEX gold was at 4358.40 dollars/ounce, up 1.1%, and COMEX silver was at 66.31 dollars/ounce, up 5.3%. The main contract of Shanghai gold futures (AU2602) closed at 979.72 yuan/gram, up 0.9%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures (AG2602) closed at 15512 yuan/kilogram, up 5.8% [5]. Price Difference and Ratio - On December 17, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 5.93 yuan/gram, up 17.9% from the previous day; the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 34 yuan/kilogram, up 112.5%. The gold internal - external price spread (TD - London) was - 8.16 yuan/gram, up 23.1%, and the silver internal - external price spread (TD - London) was - 1294 yuan/kilogram, down 3.7%. The SHFE gold - silver main contract ratio was 63.16, down 4.6%, and the COMEX gold - silver main contract ratio was 65.73, down 4.1% [5]. Position Data - As of December 16, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR position was 1051.68 tons, unchanged from the previous day; the silver ETF - SLV position was 16018.29102 tons, down 0.26%. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 253266 contracts, down - 6.04% from the previous week, and non - commercial short positions were 48678 contracts, down - 17.80%. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions were 204588 contracts, down - 2.73% from the previous week, and non - commercial short positions were 52002 contracts, down - 4.64% [5]. Inventory Data - On December 17, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 91722.00 kilograms, up 0.46% from the previous day; SHFE silver inventory was 911924.00 kilograms, up 2.38%. COMEX gold inventory was 35991345 troy ounces, up 0.07%, and COMEX silver inventory was 453846137 troy ounces, down - 0.16% [5]. Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, and Stock Market Data - On December 17, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.06, down - 0.04% from the previous day. The US dollar index was 98.22, down - 0.06%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.48%, down - 0.85%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.15%, down - 0.72%. The VIX was 16.48, down - 0.12%, the S&P 500 was 6800.26, down - 0.24%, and NYMEX crude oil was 55.17 dollars/barrel, down - 2.66% [5].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing mixed trends, with gold prices declining while platinum and palladium are rising, influenced by economic data and geopolitical tensions [1][2]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Spot gold has fallen below the $4,330 mark, currently trading at $4,330 [1]. - Spot silver has decreased by 1.00%, now at $65.53 per ounce [1]. - Spot platinum has surpassed $1,950, currently at $1,950.13, with a daily increase of 2.63% [1]. - Spot palladium is trading above $1,670 [1]. - COMEX gold futures are reported at $4,362.10 per ounce, down 0.27% [1]. - COMEX silver has dropped below $66, declining over 1.00% [1]. - Platinum futures have increased by 5.00%, now at 541.05 yuan per gram [1]. - Palladium futures have risen by 6.00%, reaching a peak of 474.40 yuan per gram [1]. Group 2: Market Influences - Weak U.S. employment data has raised expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, contributing to a surge in precious metals [2]. - Silver prices soared nearly 4%, breaking the $66 per ounce barrier and reaching a historical high of $66.86 [2]. - Analysts suggest that funds are rotating from gold into silver, platinum, and palladium, with a short-term target of $70 for silver [2]. - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021, despite stronger-than-expected job growth, indicating a softening labor market [2]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly related to Venezuela, have heightened demand for safe-haven assets [2]. - The market is closely monitoring upcoming U.S. CPI and PCE inflation data for further insights into Federal Reserve policy direction [2].

4小时图和小时图暂时陷入4353-4270区间的拉锯震荡，考虑到构造右侧高点当中，同时也是反复逼近左 侧高点，波段性高空维持思路不变，今日依旧在4340处择机空，上去每10~15美元补个仓。整体仓位控 制在10%左右，即使假性突破4380也留有补仓的空间。留意突破后的转换回落，只要不是持续稳涨，上 涨快下跌也快。波段高空思路保持不变。日内短线则是以区间高空超短线应对。空间相对看小一点，灵 活一点应对。1小时还是在大区间震荡，不过黄金整体现在还是在高位，如果做多仍然需要等待回落机 会，下方关注4270区域的支撑在逢低继续多，上方如果不能有效突破4350，那么随时可能还是会承压回 落，黄金已经三次冲个承压4350一线压制难以突破，没有突破之前，还是在大区间震荡，如果黄金要爆 发新一轮的行情，那么突破站稳4350之后才能打开新的上涨空间，再顺势跟进。操作来说亚盘4340- 4342短空，防守4355 ，目标看4315-4310减个仓再下移保本损看进一步的空间。来回震荡行情，短线有 个20美元的空间及时减仓锁定利润，以免反复洗盘，下跌不出反弹补空即可。综合来看，金晟富黄金短 线操作思路上金晟富建议反弹做空为主，回调做 ...

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年12月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：英国CPI后央行年内降息预期升温，美元反弹，金价继续走高；美国三 大股指全线收跌，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率涨跌不一，10年期美债 收益率涨1.36个基点报4.153%；美元指数涨0.18%报98.40，离岸人民币对美元小幅 贬值报7.0399；COMEX黄金期货涨0.90%报4371.40美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货979.72，现货973.79，基差-5.93，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：黄金期货仓单91302千克，增加3千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20 ...

汇通财经APP讯——在2025年年末的全球金融市场中，价格犹如脱缰野马般强劲上扬，受到美国就业数据疲软、美联储降息预期重燃以及地缘政治紧张局势 升级等多重因素的合力推动，周三（12月17日）黄金价格继续攀升，盘中最高曾触及4348.70美元/盎司，收报4338美元/盎司附近，涨幅接近1%。与此同 时，价格更是突破66美元大关，创下历史新高66.88美元/盎司，铂金也触及逾17年最高点。周四（12月18日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于 4340美元/盎司附近，本交易日重点关注特朗普的全国讲话和延迟公布的美国11月CPI数据。 就业数据疲软点燃降息预期 美国11月就业数据发布后，市场情绪迅速转向乐观，尽管新增就业岗位达到6.4万个，超出预期，但失业率意外升至4.6%，创下2021年9月以来最高水平。这 一数据揭示了劳动力市场的潜在疲软迹象，投资者普遍解读为美联储可能加速降息的信号。黄金作为非孽息资产，在低利率环境下往往表现出色，因为降息 会降低持有黄金的机会成本，从而吸引更多资金流入。 除了经济数据的影响，国际地缘政治局势的恶化也为黄金提供了强劲支撑。美国总统特朗普周二下令封锁所有进出委内瑞拉的受制裁油 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the U.S. stock market, particularly in technology stocks, is a correction of overly optimistic expectations regarding AI capital expenditures and the Federal Reserve's imminent interest rate cuts [4][6]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The immediate trigger for the market drop was news that Oracle's $100 billion data center project might face obstacles, raising concerns about whether high capital expenditures in AI will yield tangible returns [3][4]. - Major AI stocks like Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, and Oracle experienced significant declines, indicating a shift in investor sentiment from optimism to scrutiny [2][4]. Group 2: Economic and Policy Expectations - The latest employment data showed an increase in job creation despite a rise in unemployment, complicating the economic outlook and reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to implement aggressive rate cuts [4]. - The market is recalibrating its expectations regarding the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve policies, moving away from a phase driven solely by liquidity and dreams to one that requires more reliance on fundamental data and profit realization [4][6]. Group 3: Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors are advised to maintain composure and not overreact to short-term market fluctuations, as the core drivers of the A-share market are domestic economic recovery, industrial policies, and company competitiveness [5]. - It is recommended to optimize portfolio structures by balancing dreams with reality, being cautious of companies with high valuations based solely on unfulfilled concepts, and focusing on firms with reasonable valuations and visible performance [5]. - Investors should identify opportunities arising from irrational sell-offs of quality tech companies due to external emotional shocks, as long as the fundamental strengths of these companies remain intact [5].

今年是贵金属价格集体冲高的一年，继黄金和白银之后，铂金再次成为市场上最受关注的资产之一。 近日，铂金价格走势强劲，现货铂金价格一度超过每盎司1800美元。截至目前，铂金价格年内累计涨幅 已近90%，超过黄金年内涨幅，上演了一场"翻身仗"。 三轮跳涨 铂金价格年内翻倍 今年以来，NYMEX铂金期货价格累计上涨105%，是继白银后又一贵金属实现翻倍上涨。 近期，中国铂钯期货期权上市、欧洲燃油车禁令政策调整的讨论，以及"十五五"规划提到氢能关键定 位，而铂金作为氢燃料催化的首选催化剂，其利用价值更加凸显。多重利好集中推动铂金价格加速上 行。 供需方面，全球范围内，铂金市场持续处于严重短缺状态，根据WPIC最新统计，2025年全球铂金市场 预计将出现26.4吨的短缺，不过总需求预期也同比下降4%至244.8吨。 部分黄金饰品商家转换赛道 记者在深圳水贝市场看到不少新开的铂金饰品店铺，一些饰品铺位也减少了黄金饰品的摆放数量，转而 销售铂金饰品。 （水贝市场铂金饰品价格 吴家明/摄） 12月16日，记者看到水贝市场的铂金饰品克价在440元左右。有现场店铺的工作人员表示，今年以来铂 金饰品价格有过几波"行情"，今年6月的时 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is experiencing slight weakness ahead of the Bank of Japan's policy meeting, with market expectations leaning towards an interest rate hike, while the US labor market data shows signs of weakness, leading to a bearish outlook for USD/JPY [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - There is a growing expectation that the Bank of Japan will initiate an interest rate hike, which is providing support for the yen [1] - The Bank of Japan Governor indicated that the likelihood of achieving economic and price expectations is increasing, with Japan's inflation target nearing fulfillment [1] Group 2: US Economic Indicators - Recent non-farm employment data from the US shows a mixed trend, indicating a gradual slowdown in labor market growth, which has intensified expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - This trend is limiting the short-term rebound potential for the US dollar, indirectly applying pressure on the USD/JPY pair [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that the USD/JPY has been declining from recent highs, forming a short-term bearish consolidation structure, with oscillators showing negative signals [2] - The current price is near monthly lows, and a break below this support level would signal the start of a new downtrend [2] - Key resistance levels are being tested, and a breakthrough could trigger a short-term bullish correction, with targets set at recent key round numbers [2]